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"Zach Greinke looks so so good"
Here is why this article sucks:
Let's say there is someone out there who knows numbers and studied English and literature. Such a man or woman would look at the article you just read and say "OK, this guy doesn't like math and thinks that there is more to the product of baseball than the numbers." The problem is that you barely make that case. You mention a few stats and say "Well, I barely understand what they mean" and dismiss the stat wonks for what they do.
The trouble is that you just wrote an article bitching about stat nerds. How about talking up the literary or artful parts of the game? Or how about you make the argument that, while the stats tell us a few things, really the important part of the game (the playoffs) is this random process that ends with some team that wins 83 games holding the trophy. We don't know why this is. What you actually wrote was some extended "who ya crappin" crap on stats.
Someone with knowledge of both math and english would say "it's not that hard to learn the math that you need to understand baseball stats." That is true because, it's not like they use calculus. We get it - you don't like math. Next time you are a guest, how about giving us something good about the English language. Now, if you will excuse me, I am going to converse with ladies as well. Not to lazily accuse the other side of being "homosexual" or "unattractive to the female gender" as if that makes one less of a human being. I don't want to take that route.
BP has converted me to a consumer that values scouting more than numbers. You can do neither. Get off this website, you jagbag.
As a White Sox fan, I was glad to see him leave but I do enjoy hearing from him here and there. One of those "like him but glad he's not our problem" deals.
Blame Reinsdorf. He is too buddy-buddy with Butt Selig and wouldn't circumvent his precious slot rules. If you are going to draft that way, you better hit some dartboards.
Utility is ordinal. You mean expected value. You can't measure how much "utility" a team is getting out of a player but WARP, WAR, etc. do a good job of measuring value.
Is Castellanos' ranking a reflection of the Furcal trade being a good one or the poor condition of the Dodgers farm system?
To me, the system looks weak but the fact that the Dodgers have 10 3-star prospects was a bit of a surprise. Ned needs to go and a real GM that will showcase some of this talent, even if it is for the purpose of flipping them for bats. I'm surprised Dee Gordon is being given a chance. They are actually giving a young player a job coming into camp.
Oney Guillen didn't make the Top 20? Hmm, maybe he went to Miami.
Great article, Jay. Thanks for speaking for the fans. The criminal thing about the Trayvon trade is that, if it really were about getting a catcher, I think they could have gotten a better catcher in a straight-up player swap. Maybe like a Ryan Hanigan type player just because the Reds are rather deep in the catching department.
Basically, Ned is scared of going forward in 2012 with Trayvon in left and Jerry Sands at first. Ned cannot fathom fielding a team with that many rookie players. He wanted Trayvon gone and, instead of trading talent for talent, he got swindled by Theo Epstein. I would like to be wrong about the deal but, in all likelihood, this trade will end in a net loss for the Dodgers.
That would be so great. Colletti would be an improvement over Hendry but Bed would lead the Cubs to failure just the same.
Wow, we need more of this. This is awesome. Also, who is Troy Tulowitzki?
The Rivera deal sounds like the Dodgers are taking him on at the minimum and he is serving as a replacement for Marcus Thames. The crime in the acquisition is not the expense but the player, who blocks two outfielders tearing it up in Albuquerque. Yes, Rivera can play first. So can Sands.
The Dodgers should have a fire sale, selling player that is not a part of the future for whatever they can get. Yes, that means Aaron Miles too. If he can't be dealt with the kind of season he is having, he embodies everything that is wrong about the Dodgers. A team full of veteran stop-gaps only go so far.
Geoff is right. Let the kids play, Ned. You will be gone in good time so at least do the honorable thing and make sure this team is getting closer to winning a future World Series rather than trying to make a run when the team is 11 games back and 10 under .500. Sell and stop letting bums take the place of legit prospects. This team is a mess. I am a Dodger fan and I will be happy calling this season and taking a high pick. The only sane people with a hand in acquiring talent are Logan White and his scouts. Ned and Frank will only turn things into stone. It's time to show that you can sell something Ned. Find some suckers because it takes one to know one.
The movie could be a spinoff of 300.
3000: 10 times as gay.
I am Shortstopicus!
Last year, it seemed like there were multiple days where the players wore #42 on multiple days. One day is a great tribute to JR. More than one day is unnecessary, though.
So, the Cardinals already have Matt Holliday in left field and first baseman Albert Pujols in house. They brought in Lance Berkman, who is going to play right field I guess. I don't think the Cardinals are strong up the middle with Schumaker and Theriot.
Kudos if Berkman's bat offsets his shoddy play in right field but I think the Cardinals' defense could be atrocious.
Can we just contract the McCourts?
Thank you for not associating Seattle with NAMBLA.
From a scout's angle, Ackley isn't a star or is this this about public perception. 6 players - Votto, Cabrera, Pujols, Hamilton, Mauer, Choo - hit .300/.400 last year. That's some rare air for a middle infielder. I guess it's the lack of power. I will call him a borderline star if he joins the .300/.400 club with regularity.
Luke Scott is a great option as the third outfielder. The Dodgers won't move Ethier but, if they did, it would be a wise move. Cody Ross wouldn't be a bad idea either.
I think the Dodgers should offer Kuroda arbitration because he has been a good investment thus far and another year would be a safe investment.
2. Kemp cf
3. Ethier lf
4. Fielder 1b
5. Scott rf
6. Martin c
7. Blake/Betemit 3b
8. Iwamura/Carroll 2b
Let's go tell Ned our ideas!
This is a pretty good summation. Ned deserves a good amount of blame for sticking with GA so long, adding slap to a team that was lacking OPS, trading a starter with a rightful claim to a rotation spot for a reliever (forget the fact that Dotel wasn't even good enough to stick with the Dodgers) and giving up on Blake DeWitt. Torre and Colletti have proven that they don't have any right to be running a MLB team anymore.
Torre doesn't produce when his team's postseason window closes and Ned colletti has no idea how to conduct a trade or construct a baseball team. A team can overcome a bad ownership situation but that team has to have a bright GM and a capable coach. Not much is going right for the Dodgers at this point.
Lucas May, future starting catcher? Ouch, don't tell Ned Colletti. His goal as Dodgers GM is to supply the league with future catchers (Navarro, Santana, May). That's the same number of active current active legitimate catchers in the Dodgers organization.
It seems like quite a race in the NL West. I agree with you that Garret Anderson needs to go. It's pretty clear he is done and Xavier Paul is capable of doing more than GA can do now. I don't see any of these four teams dropping out for a while.
You can keep that entire list. Here, anyone want George Sherrill?
Tony LaRussa only likes foreign influences when they are injected with steroids and/or HGH. What a piece of garbage he is. Keep riling the stupid, Jay. It's easy, it's fun and entertaining.
Kudos to Griffey for doing the right thing. He should have hung up the spikes after last year but it is done now. My memory of Griffey is recent as I saw the M's-White Sox game in Safeco last year where the only run was driven in by Grif in the 14th inning. He should be a feel-good Hall candidate along with the Big Hurt. There aren't going to be too many of them. Now, all we can think of is what would Griffey have done if he could have stayed healthy.
I don't think that the Dodgers have completely messed up here. By design they have three built-in starters, a free agent and a young replacement level pitcher. They had the same thing last year. Wolf was last year's Padilla and Haeger is another Stults. Wolf was just a veteran arm but he had a career year last year. Ned Colletti just betted on the wrong veteran arm. The Dodgers have their replacement-level fifth starter in John Ely - two great starts without a walk.
Josh Lindblom would be exciting. I would like to see a James McDonald that can pitch well enough to stay in the rotation. I hear you about the Orteases. Why does George Sherril suck? Is that hear to stay.
I knew Milton would be unstable but it's only a month into the season. He would get more RBI opportunities with Ichiro and Chone. Instead of batting Milton fifth, Griffey bats there. HE may also be better off if they could pencil Bradley in as DH more but they decided to keep Sweeney, Griffey and Byrnes and drop Ryan Garko.
Shouldn't one of these eight teams Milton has played on considered therapy for him? Milton continues to be the center of unprecedented situations.
*I meant Hong-Chih Kuo, not Hu
On #6, if Belisario doesn't have visa issues and Chin-Lung Hu, do the Ortizes make the roster? I'm not worried about it but having both Ortizes around won't be pleasant for long.
I agree with your White Sox sentiment. Kenny likes Kotsay and Andruw too much. Having Jack Cust's bat and not his glove is who AL GM's should be looking for. There are a lot of these guys in the NL. One of them beat out Cust.
I'm amazed that someone can get use out of a minor in psych. I look forward to the next part of the interview!
Wow, the D-bags are so not scary now
The BP Team Health Reports may have him and the rest of the Dodgers pitching staff in the red but he might be the best bet out the Dodgers starters to avert what the red portends. It's like you say - if he stops walking batters so much, watch out!
I wonder what Ichiro will do in the #2 slot this year. I would think with Chone in front of him that he would get more than 50 RBI. The projected numbers for Milton Bradley would make that trade a serious steal for Jack Z and the M's. A lot of love for Y. Petit too. They are projected to finish within a game of last year's favorite, the A's. That could be an exciting race.
Yeah, Alexei Ramirez has a hell of a year according to PECOTA. I would think that Pierre leads off and Ramirez bats second. I know Pierre is projected to get on base more but Pierre is no #2 hitter. 181 home runs would be a decent performance for the 2010 Sox considering that they are going scrappy this year.
Not bad at all. These projections suggest that there should be no worries about the starting pitching despite Kuroda's projected decline. I would lock all of those numbers in for the hitters given the choice. 90% of Manny may be an overestimate as it sounds like he will need a lot more rest than that. Arizona is projected to be the NL West runner-up, which is interesting. PECOTA did some nice work on the Dodgers.
I don't believe that Chad Billingsley is the best example. The other three pitchers are above or near 30 and Billingsley will be 26 in July and will be full-time starter for his third season. He was inconsistent but he did break his leg last winter and he hurt his hamstring down the stretch. While he is a great example of inconsistency with his All-Star first half to not being able to start in the playoffs, he is still a young pitcher. Piniero's graph is interesting because he did fall off in September and the playoffs but the start plot seems to have less noise or variance than the two consistent pitchers.
I agree with ferret in that he needs to throw his first strike. He still struggles with command and doesn't seem to be comfortable in going after batters but his strikeouts tell you that he can improve if he stops walking people. He walked more pitchers than I care to remember.
Tommy, I don't mean to go against what you are writing about because I don't think that you are fervently arguing that your findings prove the media labels. I would be interested in seeing more parts to this form of analysis. Perhaps you would pick two or three of pitchers that you believe to be the most consistent and inconsistent. For me, Jon Garland comes to mind for consistent and Javier Vazquez for being inconsistent.
Ken, I think I am in your camp when I am wondering why the moods of the Dodger fans are so grim. Do we really want Ned spending money on the hot free agents? How has that worked out so far. I know the divorce drabs things up a bit but anyone short of Halladay doesn't dramatically change the outlook for the 2010 Dodgers and that includes John Lackey. The Red Sox can have him because he isn't a true ace pitcher.
The Dodgers didn't have much to do this off-season and whatever they did have to do seemingly has been done. My concerns lie beyond the 2010 season. The Dodger farm system seems to be weaker than what I would like it to be right now. They are missing the top-flight prospects that would be nice to have knocking on the door. With that being said, no one should be downtrodden when the names Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton, Kemp, Ethier, Loney and Martin are on the backs of Dodger jerseys.
I guess with Belliard on board with the Dodgers, there is potential for a bona-fide competition for second base or a portion of the position. Competitions are usually verbal creations by the teams and their managers but this one may be real because of the players involved. I was thinking DeWitt and Carroll would platoon at second but Belliard could force himself into the lineup everyday. It is confusing because Belliard, who seems superfluous, is one of Torre's guys. I think they can carry all three guys because Carroll and DeWitt can spot start at short and Belliard can play first on occasion, provided the starting infielders avoid trips to the DL and that the Dodgers only keep one reserve outfielder on the roster. They can fight it out in spring training but I would like to see Blake DeWitt given a chance. Although I am not enamored with A.J. Ellis, I would have liked to see him get the 15 games that Russell Martin doesn't play but Brad Ausmus is a cheap insurance plan and, fine, he gives off great clubhouse energy. Sure.
It's all about the McCourt divorce. Ned hasn't been able to do anything this winter because his hands are tied. He is on a no-risk order. Offering arbitration to those guys would have been a low risk but Ned still was unable to do so. It's a shame.
I would hope Hu is available. I have the feeling he can't hit and I would hope the Dodgers could get something for him if their are interested parties. I think DeJesus could be in the big leagues in stints this year. I think they will find a way to get him some of DeWitt's and Carroll's at-bats.
Dusty is going to ruin Chapman's arm too. No trusty in Dusty.
As a Dodgers fan, I just find it interesting that Chad Billingsley has to be in the discussion or there is no deal but all the rest of the teams "in the hunt" have their unproven prospects that they can march out there. Just stick with Halladay if you can't reach a deal for him say last year's trading deadline. He's breached his value point and no one is going to give poo for him because good young quality baseball players are worth more than hired guns and because I am censored for wanting to say shti
But Wolf had put out the vibes that he wanted a multi-year deal and here we are in December and he has 30 million dollars of baseball guaranteed money. I would have taken the risk of getting stuck with Wolf's services for around 10 million. I thought that he would have overwhelming odds of getting some sort of two year deal. He got three! Orlando Hudson - probably a risk but Randy Wolf was worth the arbitration gamble. I can see denying him arb if it were a normal year and the Dodgers wanted to go in a different direction but he would have gotten his contract and the Dodgers aren't going to have the funds to get the next Randy Wolf. Even in this economy, Randy Wolf has proven his value to warrant getting paid. It was just too much of a risk in Frank McCourt's mind.
Did Ned really think Wolf was going to do anything but walk away? Why oh why didn't Ned offer Wolf salary arbitration. I think it wasn't Ned's decision. I think McCourt placed a ban on ANY risk of spending money, even small risks that potentially pay better dividends than free agents. This isn't the move of a smart franchise but a franchise under scared and uncertain ownership. Let's hope there is some headway or the Dodgers might not even be able to make the shrewd deals for the free agents left in the room in February and March.
How about we have pitchers stop hitting altogether? It seems that if a prospective major leaguer that can pitch and bat but does not have a good chance to do well at both in the bigs should abandon one to ensure a better chance of making the bigs, wouldn't getting rid of pitchers batting make the quality of NL pitching a lot better? It would really make the game a lot better. It's an antiquated part of the game and it sucks.
I think that both sides got what they deserved. A 97 win team goes out and gets this cancer and this guy takes a multi-million dollar deal and predictably wears out his welcome. Milton Bradley is getting paid but he is never happy. It was so obvious that he would have folded in the spotlight of the Chicago media. Instead of Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn or Rauuuul Ibanez, they get this clown. Yeah, what Milton said was right. I say it all the time but I am not collecting 30 million dollars from those losers. One thing that I think is right about the move is that Hendry decided that he should be the one to take charge of the team. Everytime Lou stands up to Milton he backs down. Lou also hasn't done his job in supervising Carlos Zambrano and his rehab. Hendry stepped in to do what no one else has done. Too little, too late and the losing continues.
Max Scherzer is a good example for pitchers. It may be that a player chasing stats is not going to follow his game before he decides to do that but if you listen to what he says, he says that he tries to do what too many pitchers aren't doing. He is getting ahead in the count and not walking guys. I don't understand how some of the best pitchers in the game are walking guys the way they do.
Yeah, Juan Pierre is a left fielder for a bad team. He can't play center long term because of his lack of throwing power and he doesn't give you what you want in terms of hitting for a left fielder. He "must" be your leadoff hitter despite not getting on base enough based on career OBP. He is speedy and he was a good leadoff hitter when he was with the Marlins. Now, he is well-paid and that makes him untouchable. He might as well sit on the Dodger bench and come in when the Dodgers need a leadoff pinch hitter or a pinch runner. If he can sit tight and do just that, he might end up with a World Series ring.
"Baker also doesn't understand a thing about lineups and is too stubborn to learn about the significance of an OBP. Those are problems. But they are epidemic among MLB managers, so I don't think too much should be made of it."
What else do managers do besides make lineups? Dusty Baker is notorious for being a player's manager. That is why he is so bad because the one thing he does he is no good at.
With Jay Bruce, he could have started him from Opening Day but he did not.
I went a little easy on Dusty Baker. This is a guy who said that baserunners "clog the base paths" while in the broadcast booth, used his son to shield questions from him as a Cubs manager, wanted to deploy holy water to heal some of his players in 2005, unashamedly blames past general managers and managers for his current failures and said that dark-skinned players are better during the hot months. Let's not even get into the denial of any knowledge of steroids. He is nearly as guilty as Barry Bonds in that respect.
This guy is worse than you think, worse than I know. The only reason he still has a job is that he rode Bonds and a well-assembled team to a World Series which he did not win. It is scary to think somebody as dumb as him could get that far but when you have those players, it is hard to screw up. When he talks of developing players, he talks out of his ass and he will ruin that pitching staff and use any veteran as his safety blanket and play him over a rookie given the choice.
All of his failures should be common knowledge but I guess it is not. Ugh!
Dusty Baker is full of shit. Having kids proves that he likes to play young players?!
"This is the type of team I've always wanted to manage, a team that is young and athletic," said Baker. "I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be a lot of fun."
You will be asking your GM for Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez by the end of the week.
"You go ask young players anywhere who I play in spring training, and they'll tell you the young kids. I've always been fair with young players."
Ask Mark Prior and Kerry Wood about that. Dusty is horrible with young players. Does he even know who Jay Bruce is? Sorry Cincinnati, as you may have already gathered, Dusty Baker is going to ruin your team. Worst manager in MLB.
Wow. Eric Stults is projected to throw 72 K's in 40 innings. Thats 16.2 K/9! I wonder if he has a shot at a spot in the rotation. He has done well in spot starts in the past. n
I agree with Martin at #2 as well. Martin has the superior OBP ability and that is what you would want when hitting in front of Manny. Hudson is a fine hitter who was hitting 3rd in the D-back lineup but that was their problem. The lineup will probably shift around but less so than last year when Torre was getting to know the team. The main lineup priority will be setting the table for Manny and Furcal and Martin fit the bill. In situations versus rightys, Ethier and Martin may switch spots but by and large Ethier is the cleanup hitter.
Don't forget about the no-trade clauses placed in nearly every free-agents contract. I'd say that the Cubs' window is this year. Beyond 2009, one of the NL Central teams will rise to the occasion. This team is going to be in shambles for a while with no farm system and all of these deals on the sour end. Which is why it will be so great once October comes around and the Cubs fall at some point in the playoffs.