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You pointed out that Belt's U-25 ranking was more indicative of Brown's potential, but how down is Belt's stock from the middle of last year when he was included in the top ten of your mid-season prospect list?
I was surprised to see Hamilton above Mesoraco. Given that Hamilton may not stick at short, is it fair to say you're feeling good about the hit tool progressing to the point that he could hit leadoff in the bigs?
Well done. As the Yankees are clearly the Lannisters of baseball, we need a map of "Steinbrenner Rock".
That was painful to watch
Really enjoyed this!
The points are valid, but for the sake of trade value I think you keep saying he can play at catcher. If you start part timing him at 1B, it seems like the Yankees would be admitting he can't hack it as a catcher.
At the end of the day I wouldn't be surprised to see Montero on another team in a Mike Napoli role (albeit full time).
I'd love to see an article series where Kevin and Jason argue over prospects like Szczur. It would be great to see a more in depth breakdown of "He projects to hit for average and power" and "I simply have plenty of questions about the hit tool. Some scouts thought it would need a complete reworking".
I think it's fair to say that the total lack of power last year make the Jimmy Rollins comps look silly, but if Gordon turns into a late career Juan Pierre who plays league average D at short I'll be happy.
I think fantasy baseball screws with people's perceptions a little bit regarding upside vs relative certainty (at least I know it does for me).
I bet if you went to your average fantasy owner and an MLB GM and offered each of them either a player with a 25% chance to be an ace and a 75% chance to be a bum or a %100 chance to be a solid #3, they probably aren't picking the same guy. Just depends on how high replacement level is.
I'll be on the lookout for Dan Johnson in my auction, though I must say that some of the PECOTA comps this year have left me a bit skeptical. I like Kila, but Johnson, Votto, Gonzalez seems pretty aggressive. I also seemed to see a fair number of marginal prospects pulling Sheffield or Mantle comps.
Love this article, but I disagree with Collins. Not only would Soria need to be moved, but Jeffress would have to fail before Collins could get a shot. Between groupthink (Jeffress is bigger, throws harder and is a righty) and the desire to justify the Greinke trade to fans, I just can't see Jeffress not getting the first crack if Soria were dealt.
A million bucks a star is pretty damning for a college guy.
I would say an ace is a pitcher who could face off against the best pitcher in the game without either team feeling like it has a huge advantage (i.e. anybody your team could match up against Roy Halladay that doesn't cause you to go "we're screwed"). Teams can have multiple aces. In regard to timeline, I think you need to look at about a season and a half on a rolling basis, this seems like a reasonable amount of time to both ignore a slump (think Lincecum last year), but acknowledge that factors can cause pitchers to lose "Ace" status (think late career Greg Maddux).
Regarding Harper's attitude, I feel his high degree of arrogance can go in two basic directions. Either he coasts on his talent and refuses to take instruction, or he has that all consuming drive to be the best (think Jordan).
While it sounds like Harper is going to get on his teammates nerves, what really matters is how his arrogance manifests itself. What does your gut say about the end result of Harper's attitude?
Does Brandon Belt have the power to be a 300/350/500 guy? Is he in the discussion for the top 25 on the top 101 list?
I love the top 11s, and there's really nothing I would change about them. One request though, I have to imagine you start with a giant spreadsheet with well over 100 names and start whittling down to get to your top 101, could you please post the names of guys who were on the spreadsheet, but missed the top 101?
Muscle Milk + Jersey Shore Re-runs + Natural Progression + The Ballpark in Arlington?
I was thinking something like 25 doubles, 10 triples, 8-10 homers, but without a BA spike that's probably not getting him past 400.
What's your take on Andrus long term? He brought up the OBP this year, but lost what tiny bit of power he had. Do you see him taking a big step forward, maybe to 280/360/420, or is this a case of "what you see is what you get"?
Sorry for jumping off topic, but is there any chance you could drop some Yu Darvish knowledge on us? I've seen a few sources report that he could be posted this year.
As an O's fan I'm terrified at the perceived similarities between Tim Beckham and Manny Machado.
If the White Sox decide to turn Sale into a starter, have they given any sense as to whether he'd have to go back to the minors prior to being added to the major league rotation?
I loved this article, it really got me thinking. Would you say that: DIPS + Luck + Defense + Park Effects = ERA? Is the next logical step to figure out how to add Defense and Park Effects into the equation? Are the metrics for Defensive currenly available good enough to accomplish this?
It seems logical to say that if we were to look at a hypothetical extreme flyball pitcher who played in San Diego in front of 3 terrific fielding OFs, more often than not his ERA is going to be lower than his DIPS. I guess my question is, do you feel that it's quantifiable?
This is great, the more prospect content the better. Speaking of, bring prospectin' back to the podcast!
Point well taken, but I think I'd still take Mays. Now if we could somehow send Pujols back to the 1920s, that would be something to see (assuming they'd let him play, my knowledge of baseball history is a little lacking).
I think this is right on the mark. The issue with the old scouting system was that it was all gut and no data. I know Moneyball is about exploiting market inefficiencies, but the scouting manta of the book was something like "fire all of the scouts and draft based on the computer". I think everyone can agree that using both types of information is the way to go.
I think a college football scholarship is worth more than $100,000. If a player redshirts, they're looking at 5 years of college with just about everything paid for. Either way, if a guy develops, he has a shot to make the pros, so I don't see a significant difference there. The big difference for me is that 4-5 years of college athletics is probably more enjoyable than the minors, and you're left with a much better backup plan if things don't work out for you athletically.
I think the Montero fascination is due in large part to the Yankees positional log-jam. If he was on the M's he'd be up next year playing 1B, but what will the Yankees end up doing with him? His second half shows he's ready for a shot at MLB, but he can't: catch, play the OF, or supplant Teixiera at 1B...can the Yankees make him a 21 year old full time DH?
What kind of prospect is Poythress? Could he grow up to hit .260-.270 with 30ish homers at the MLB level?
Other than the standard expectation that you need to rake to be a 1B prospect, are there any major warts?
I think the Ackley/Kipnis question says more about Kipnis than Ackley. There's a pretty wide gap between what Kipnis was expected to be during the draft (OF with BA and OBP skills but little power) and what he's shown thus far (2B with BA, OBP and solid pop).
I know you don't like to slot guys in the top-x during the season, but is Brandon Belt up for top-50 consideration?
Adeiny Hechavarria, Engel Beltre
Don't think the comps are fair, but I totally agree with the sentiment. The window dressing doesn't seem like enough to make up the difference between Montero and Smoak. Maybe Jack saw some additional value in pulling a good prospect away from a team in his division?
I loved the Kiley McDaniel stuff last year, and was kind of disappointed a replacement wasn't found for 2010.
Perhaps as prospects go, but overall? No winning seasons since 1997, stuck in the AL East, on pace to challenge the worst season in MLB history. But then I'm sure we can find a Pirates fan to give us a run for our money.
Does this season call Jennings power ceiling into question? Is 12-15 HRs a year a reasonable expectation?
Are scouts concerned about Jesus Montero, or is this just part of the learning curve when you're in AAA at his age?
I'd agree that demanding a trade is selfish, but a request? As long as Oswalt will continue to perform to the best of his abiliites even if he is not traded, I don't see the big deal. It certainly would have been better if this had stayed between the Astros brass, Oswalt and his agent, but the fault for that may lay on the Astros side.
Do you think Lyles has 2 starter upside, or is he more of a 3-4?
Has the ship sailed on Ackley playing at A+? I guess I'm asking if he's the kind of kid that wouldn't respond too badly to a demotion.
Other than public pressure from fans, is there any reason the Nats couldn't keep Strasburg in the minors all year and call him up after they suspect the super two deadline has passed next year?
I've enjoyed this series, any chance for an article about contract negotiations?
Not directly relevant, but has anyone heard anything new on the mlb.tv for Xbox360 front?
But as you said earlier "You'll never hear me say "Joe BLow WILL get injured"; I simply don't know."
A lot of analysts out there seem to be saying things like "Strasburg will get injured", not "Strasburg has an elevated risk of injury compared to other young pitchers".
Having achieved all that one can on the diamond, Matt Wieters has retired, and is awaiting enshrinement to Cooperstown.
ATP: Availability to Play
I'm curious about Patterson as well, will anyone ever give him a real chance to win a starting job?
With 1B an organization black hole, is there a Smoak-y type worth taking 3rd overall in the upcoming draft?
I really don't see the logic of the trade on the Pirates side. Both pitching prospects are pretty ho-hum, and with McCutchen in center is there ANY chance Gorkys Hernandez's bat can hold down a corner OF spot? Plus McLouth is signed to a pretty affordable deal.
Manny's suspension could end up being the best thing that ever happened to the Dodgers: save a few million on Manny, get a rested Manny for the playoffs, maybe find a team willing to take Pierre after his hot streak, still win the division going away.
Troy Patton's ERA makes him look like a future Ace, but his peripherals make him look more like a 5. Is reality somewhere in the middle?
Thanks Guys. I had always wondered about that. Makes me think the phrase "starting the arbitration clock" is a bit misleading. Not that you can't stop a clock....
Does Gillaspie's 5 AB's in 2008 or Ross Detwiler's 1 IP in 2007 have any affect on either players arbitration clock?
Love the top 11s. Could you give us the quick and dirty on Kelvin De Leon?
Any system where CC Sabathia=Juan Cruz probably needs some tweaking.
Does Lars Anderson remind you at all of Billy Butler? If so which one has the better career?