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Have you seen Lee play OF?
Pretty sure it was Sean McAdam who reported the Sox approached the A's about a restructured deal with just Anderson (No PTBNL) but were rebuffed. So I'd agree... good chance the PTBNL was a half decent prospect.
They desperately needed *backup* catching...?
Drew Stubbs and George Springer are two recent CFers in this mold, too. It does seem like its been more common historically for up the middle guys to be premium defenders who put the ball in play and make use of their speed... but I'm not sure if that's just a stereotype we've got stuck in our heads. It could very well be that in the metal bat amateur era TTO up the middle guys aren't really that uncommon.
To be fair, 24 total bases is almost as silly.
You know what else is "all the rage?" Fans of a team thinking they've struck gold with their fringy, 25 year old, unathletic Rule 5 pick.
Emaus was not some well regarded, stud prospect before he became a Met, I assure you.
...and you call yourself a "velo-whore?"
Also, KG's Cubs list came out in December while Szczur didn't actually commit to the Cubs until the end of January. He had signed a two sport deal previously, which certainly was a concern for me with regards to his prospect status.
Also, from that second article, Cubs fans should become aware that Szczur is actually pronounced "Caesar" - as in Julius or Augustus. Or Salad.
Its on the front page. Scroll down.
I saw Beckham as well a couple weeks back and he definitely looks bigger, especially the lower half. Completely agree with your assessment.
I'm having a very hard time buying Mantle over Williams, Larry.
I know it would make for a much less interesting article, but I'd be tempted to go Ruth until his death, then Williams until his death, then Mays since (also with strong consideration to Bonds).
Maybe I'm forgetting how to do the math here (quite possible), but how can this be correct...
Pedroia, a plus fielding 2B is projected to hit .295/.362/.438 over 675 PAs. His projected WARP is 2.4
Nick Swisher, an averageish (and that's slightly charitable) defensive RF is projected to hit .252/.353/.462 over 632 PAs. His projected WARP is 3.0
A player hitting for ~9 points less of OBP and 24 points more of SLG at a much less valuable defensive position... and he plays that position just so-so while the other player is an elite defender... how can that add up that way? Is the replacement level set correctly?
Weclome to BP! Another great addition.
I think perhaps one motivation here for Melvin was that this group of young player and prospects was mildly disappointing so far (Escobar hasn't hit, Jeffress off field stuff & a reliever, Odorrizi doesn't have FOR stuff really, Lawrie is an OF or perhaps even a 1B, etc...). Doing these trades lets you get two years of control of two front line starters AND the ability to replenish your farm system and start over with a new group of kids - either by trading these guys & Fielder next year or collecting comp picks when they walk (assuming the comp. system still exists).
I still don't understand how both berkman and oswalt were so seriously overpaid by the astros.
Those timelines don't match up at all. I'm not sure the Sox even had interest in the team until well into the 2010 baseball season.
While the commenters you talk to on Pirates blogs may have nothing to go on besides his looks, the people Kevin talks to may just have a little more insight.
Sounds like your tripling the amount of work you have to do and giving yourself half the time. Impressive.
If PECOTA is what I think it will be then BP is really leading the way again. Love the new additions like Mike Fast, too.
"I was there for the first week of games and you could obviously see the kid's timing is off."
So YOUR SSS observations are valid, but not the pro scouts? Interesting take.
Not sure what you're trying to say here... Jeter never really turned into a good defender.
A) Will be 25 years old in 2011.
B) Was an uber prospect based largely on scouting and college performance - not his 2009 PECOTAs.
Still a pretty good chance he emerges as one of the best catchers in baseball. Let's not write his obit. just yet. Though, obviously if you watch him recently he doesn't look like an impact bat... the tools are still there and no one should be shocked in the slightest if he turns it around.
Crow and Melville certainly didn't hold their spots and were surpassed by Lamb and Dwyer, IMO. Both from a performance and scouting standpoint.
FYI, I prefer my poetic baseball information in the form of dirty limericks.
Something to think about.
I think the real issue is how much credit to give Ackley because his teammates got on base before he came to the plate... conversely, how much do we "blame" a guy who hits a solo shot for his teammates not being on base?
Speaking of which... good luck with that Royals top 11!
I would think the poor but not atrocious CS% is in large part due to guys not being scared of running on him... being more aggressive and less selective deciding when to run. He's had 126 SB attempts in his 101 games at Catcher. No other IL catcher is really all that close in attempts allowed or SB allowed... and there are some BAD defensive catchers in that league right now. Tyler Flowers has been awful and drawn awful reviews from what I've heard and his defensive numbers, while eye-bleedingly bad, actually look significantly better than Montero. Take Flowers & Adam Donachie out and no one is even near the guy. His SB allowed are like 2 standard deviations off the average IL starting catcher's.
Rondon is out for the year. He missed nearly the entire year with a forearm injury.
Melville is a RHP.
Its no doubt slowly driving Dayton Moore insane. I imagine him alone in his office late at night, staring at his team's batting averages and asking himself "how can this be happening????."
Yeah... I mean, its been a little over a week. Let's close the book on this one already!
He's playing in Las Vegas. You really shouldn't be this impressed by what he's doing this year.
I've seen this argument before... obviously what Jeffress has done isn't a capital crime. OTOH, its extremely troubling to me that the kid continues to put his career in baseball at risk by using a recreational drug. He knows the chance he's taking smoking pot and he keeps doing it - that's a big red flag for me in terms of character and dedication. How much does he want to be a baseball player?
Soriano's 2010 salary: 1 yr/$7.25mm
Wagner's 2010 salary: 1 yr/$7mm w/ $0.25mm buyout for 2011 + $6.5mm option vests with 50 games finished.
I understand Soriano hasn't exactly been the picture of health... but Wagner is 38 and made a grand total of 17 appearances the last TWO seasons.
Seriously? Chris Carter is just a notch above organizational filler regardless of how he performed last night. The Mets gave up a free first round pick and supplemental pick for him. Bad any way you cut it.
Wagner has been great, sure... but Soriano has been great, too. They've been equally valuable by WAR so far. Once again, my argument isn't that Wagner is bad - its that the difference between him and Soriano isn't close to worth giving up (basically) two first rounders for.
It doesn't matter who Boston took with the picks, either. The fact Ranaudo was projected as a top 5 talent before the injury only makes them giving up the picks potentially look much worse in a couple years. If you don't like Ranaudo fill in another guy you would have liked there. They still gave up a lot of value for no good reason.
They could have just kept Rafael Soriano and not given up picks, though.
Negative me all you want. That's still an obscene waste of value. They gave up the picks that became Vitek and Ranuado for a 39 year old injury prone reliever. Not smart.
To be fair, the Mets are even more foolish for trading those picks for Chris Carter (the 26 year old OF/1B, not the stud A's prospect).
Day One Selections
-Billy Wagner, LHP, Boston Red Sox (MA)
Not to mention that by pretty much every evaluation tool we have, Jeff Mathis doesn't show up as all that good of a defensive catcher... albeit better than Napoli.
Coaches and teammates have said he's "relaxed" and using the whole field again, fwiw.
If the Rockies don't appreciate him, the Red Sox would be happy to have him...
"Andrew Brackman, rhp, Yankees (High-A Tampa): Four innings, 10 hits, seven runs and zero strikeouts last night. Sure, he's throwing strikes, but at what cost?"
A $$4,550,000 bonus and a wasted first round pick - that many people didn't like at the time (since he needed TJ and all).
Also, the cost of every non-Yankee fan having to hear for three years how good he is since BA decided to put him on a top 100 list for some insane reason.
You're also confusing talent with results. Even the injured Tribe of last year had a pyth 7 games better than they finished with. Their expected W-L was 73-89. Add in the guys who are back healthy...
Very true. Sometimes player exceed their true talent level. If Cesar Izturis hits .290 this year we'd all just shrug and chalk it up to luck.
Yet, if a team scores 30 more runs than PECOTA projected apparently the system must be broken.
"The A's have been 'overrated' in my estimation two years in a row! There must be something wrong with this system that I admittedly don't understand! Also, don't bother trying to explain it to me, just *fix* your system!"
"What? No - I'm 100% positive it couldn't be injuries, luck and random variance. Why do you ask?"
"80 Speed" isn't some random number scouts dream up and pull out of the air. Its based off clocked times to 1B, around the bases, etc... So maybe something like 25% pulled out of the air.
He's throwing mid 80's right now, for one thing.
Reports out of Cleveland seem to give Aaron Laffey the edge over Talbot, actually.
Gardenhire has all but ruled Neshek out:
Twins manager Ron Gardenhire shot down talk Friday of Pat Neshek possibly being considered for the club's ninth-inning vacancy. Neshek is about 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery
Swing and a miss.
Its a shame PECOTA was so messed up initially. Its going to cast doubts on the projections when the real story should be how good the Sox are projected. There's plenty of reason to think they will be the best team in baseball in 2010 and PECOTA picking them there should have been the story.
Its difficult to become a team's top prospect (especially for a team as loaded as the Rangers) when you're suspended the first 50 games of the season for a violation of MLB's minor league drug prevention and treatment program.
Follow up: Will this be done? Should this be done? Why?
I think that's probably important point #3: Prospects and farm systems are but a means to an end (winning at the MLB level).
Still, the major problem that teams face is how to balance the present and the future. Its pretty clear the Cardinals haven't done a very good job of preparing for their future.
I hate to say it, but I think a number of these problems may actually have been with LAST YEAR'S PECOTA.
"Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and totally redeem yourself!"
If the previous PECOTA confusion was necessary to get these awesome looking player cards up - it was completely worth it. Love how all the mentions of a player are tied in, too, even chats.
Well the fact he was going to be moved to the OF because of Kouzmanoff is probably an indication they already had a plan for this problem...
I was thinking the same thing when I saw Betancourt atop the the "TAv lower than you might think" category! I bet he would win a poll for who BP readers think is the worst regular in baseball.
I realize it wasn't meant as a shocking placement... still make me laugh at how bad he is.
In my experience, most people either can't or simply refuse to wrap their mind around win probability.
Perhaps its just me, but I don't mind seeing how the sausage is made if its explained to me in a enjoyable, easy to read manner. That seems like its really the core mission of BP, actually.
I think its more like they changed some of the underlying principles - some of the basic inputs, and theyre finding out step by step how those interact with each advanced step of the process. It certainly hasnt been smooth so far.
"Was Nate too distracted by politics?"
Hope you were joking... can't tell.
PECOTA is the most complex system out there. Its entirely natural and appropriate that it takes a long time to work out the kinks.
I was kidding...
I do agree *in part* with some of your criticisms, but Im torn. I like getting my PECOTA as early as possible, so I dont mind the beta - but I agree the wild swings we've seen so far don't exactly inspire me with confidence in the system/process.
Still, I think we would find every projection system except perhaps the simplistic MARCEL has these same sort of bumps in the process. The difference is we're just privy to them. People here seem turned off by seeing so much of the guts of the process - it is sort of like viewing an operation. For Clay and company, I would imagine the individual results that many BP readers are clinging to (like the processed standings) are far less interesting than playing with the process.
I dont mind seeing the guts, personally... I think its more the first release of PECOTA this year was just extraordinarily raw. Im not sure this really any different (systematically) than it has been in previous years. The projections constantly get tweaked throughout February-April. Not sure why so much attention is being paid and with so much dissatisfaction this year.
So... looks like someone's favorite team took a hit in the latest PECOTA standings.
Max Scherzer as a Green? Kind of surprised by that.
Beyond all the mechanics arguments, etc... he was a young pitcher (24) who jumped from 109 IP to 175 IP. That seems like the sort of thing the THR's hate.... no?
That's a pretty curious way to approach the issue.
Its difficult enough to predict the true talent levels... now you're asking PECOTA to predict who will get lucky...
Yeah... pretty sure that's not what PECOTA is thinking.
It just sees a year lost to injury and doesn't tie the diminished stuff, velocity and results in the following year to that.
Logan Morrison was one of those guys where I read your description of him and it sounded more 3 star than 5 star.
Inside-out swing, questionable power, big platoon problems, 1B only, bad baserunner.
That sounds... awful. What happened to your "1B have to absolutely mash to rank really high" rule?
-and then he didn't allow a single run in 2009!
ZiPS also loved Colby Lewis, fwiw...
Its like... 50/50 anyway, isnt it?
Ah, that makes sense.
Maybe BP should come up with a new defensive metric based on play by play data...
You mean rival Boston for best defense.
There's a few like this. I think I would prefer CHIPS - Carroll's ""...
It was the first thing that came to mind for me, too... downside is the word has a different meaning, as in previously. Kind of bothers me. What's nice about acronyms like PECOTA are that they can't be confused with anything else. If we're having a conversation and I mention Derek Jeter's PRIORs you might think he had been arrested.
Team Health Opinions and Medical Evaluations
BIP data based...? Or just a different version of FRAA/FRAR?
I take it PECOTA will still be using FRAA/FRAR this year, then...?
Ok. Now include defense.
PMLV is a pretty peculiar place to start, never mind declare a "winner."
Here are the Yankees left side CHONE projections by WAR:
Well, the man did say "arguably."
Here are their WAR by CHONE projections for 2010:
Will, this was an excellent article. This is exactly the sort of stuff I was hoping to see more of from BP. Keep up the great work.
Somebody actually signed Brandon Lyon??
I sure hope they didn't pay him much.
Wasn't that the case 2 years ago, too (except for Terry Ryan and Bill Smith, of course!)...?
They must have been fooled by that awesome 6.5 K/9 in 2007.
Ah. It must have worked then. When I next logged in my initial comment had a positive rating.
"Try to win" = spending gobs of money?
Damn all those small market teams that never "try to win!" I hate them so much!
Oh wow, really?? Boy, is my face red!
Really? That was a joke??
I honestly thought they were seriously claiming they were the "coolest people on the web."
All a joke. Wow. Now my eyes are open. Thank you, citizen!
"You’ll get to work on cutting edge baseball analysis with some of coolest people on the web"
So the project involves a collaboration with people other than BP writers...?
American League at least??
Now Im stumped.
Crap. Its a pitcher?
My money is on Profar.
I don't have a problem nor do I want to shift the divisions. I just get sick of seeing people knocking the Red Sox for their resources without taking note of EXACTLY how much larger the Yankees resources are. Its a huge, dramatic difference, and the sheer scale of it is unmatched in any other division.
Frankly, I care way less about writing than I do about seeing some original and interesting ideas. If BP's readers do indeed favor writing over ideas these days, then perhaps that is why this place is stagnating.
For instance, Perotto is a good addition, but I dont want more of just random opinion articles. I can get some guy's opinion on trades lots of places these days! Give me some interesting statistical analysis! That's what this place was really about when it was breaking new ground and creating buzz.
"I could care less if BP gets things out a little slower than other sites, who seem to base their whole identity on the timeliness of a 140-character outburst - what I care about is that they leave the loudest reverb once the noise has stopped being made."
Right now theyre doing neither.
If it was quality or original writing, sure. When I see something that's the same thing everyone else said a week after everyone else had it - no thanks. That's what Transaction Analysis and Hit List, etc... have become. Neither quality nor quick. You want jokes about wine and subtle wit? That's great. I want quick, enlightening analysis of what's going on in the world of baseball. Frankly, I much prefer RJ Anderson, Tom Tango or Dave Cameron to what I get at BP these days.
Fact is, there is nothing special about much of the product BP is giving us these days. If they want me to pay for it they could at least get that part out faster and make it easier to digest. As for in depth articles - I would love them, but the ones we've been getting arent original or interesting. New ground IS being broken in Sabrmetric fields... just not here.
I pay my subsription for Future Shock and PECOTA, essentially. Everything else here is tired, uninteresting and definitely lacking in quality. I much, much prefer the fangraphs types of articles that ask questions and then explore answers. BP used to be more like that and it was far better for it.
Frankly, I like the more blogs idea.
I would love to see BP become more like fangraphs - well written, intelligent blurbs on what is going on. Ive never cared for Transaction Analysis or Hit List. The format is the issue - not Christina's writing style. They give me nothing I cant get elsewhere. Break it up into little pieces easier to digest and get them out quicker. Ive usually ready three or four analyses by the time TA is out. BP needs to stop being reactive and start being proactive again.
They sure do, but it doesnt diminish the problems of the Red Sox.
I would love to see the European football style system happen.
Ok, now find another division where the team with the highest payroll is 165% of the second team's payroll.
Or anything close to that.
The Sox may have extra resources, but theyre at least equaled out by the extra problem of having to go through the Yankees. No one else has anything close to that big a problem.
I hope you're not considering Burnett an Ace.
Boston has great resources, but they pale in comparison to NY's.
No other divison has as big a disparity BY PERCENTAGE between the top two teams as exists in the AL East.
Ugh. All this discussion has demonstrated is EXACTLY why the thumbs down/hidden comments section is a good thing. Just ask anyone who was able to skip over this pointless tangent and got to read only comments about A's prospects. I can only wish I was among them.
How about Bill Mueller?
He got enough thumbs down that it hid what was by his own admission a pretty silly comment.
Its not like we chopped off a hand.
Right. Why would people thumbs down two completely unnecessary comments cluttering the page.
Felix Hernandez = Historic
He does take much longer to get warmed up these days. He is also terrible at holding runners and slow to the plate. This combined with his propensity for wild pitches/passed balls makes him a particularly bad choice for high lev relief innings.
What the hell are you talking about? Can you show me one instance of this? Find me a quote where someone at BP overrated Mike Cameron.
+ Regardless of that, he's a very good player.
Yes, Bay and Cameron have some of the same flaws (Ks, age). Fortunately, they didnt have ANYWHERE NEAR THE SAME PRICE. No idea why you're comparing their AVGs. Bay clearly is a better contact hitter. If Bay was willing to sign for what Cameron did or somewhere near it he would be a Red Sox today, I guarantee you.
Cameron, even at age 37, is actually a very good defender, while Bay stinks. As for the defense in front of the Monster - sadly, MLB has yet again denied the Red Sox' petition to play all their games at Fenway in the 2010 season. If you had read all the comments here you might have noticed the Sox might slide Ellsbury over, too.
Signing Lackey had absolutely nothing to do with Matsuzaka. He was a target of opportunity that they couldnt pass up and he also gives them flexibility to move Buchholz if they so desire. Theo was very surprised Lackey was interested in Boston. He wasnt someone they had planned on making a big run at.
Its certainly under consideration and the comments from team personnel have seemed to have left that door open.
Adding to that argument is that Ellsbury actually posted an excellent UZR/150 rate in his time there (SSS, though).
The downside is: we all agree that Ellsbury has the tools to be an excellent/plus CFer, so what do we gain by not giving him the experience to get better? Its not like Cameron is a long term solution there...
Im also of the opinion that UZR is unnecessarily harsh on Ellsbury. I think this is a result of UZR's known issues with Fenway and the strange wall dimensions. Further, Bay was such an atrocious defender that I can't help but wonder if Ellsbury was hurt by having to shade to Bay's side too often.
Neither Reddick nor Hermida are full time options if Ellsbury is dealth. They would likely look for a platoon mate for Hermida. Xavier Nady has been mentioned. Reddick probably needs some more seasoning and is also hurt by both him and Hermida (and Ellsbury and Drew) being LHH.
Why would he steal less?
Johnny Damon, older and less speedy, hitting out of the #2 spot stole 25, 27, 29 and 12(injuries) with the Yankees.
The Yankees run plenty. In fact, in 09 the Yanks stole 111 bases while the Tigers stole only 72.
I would predict a bump in Runs, HR, RBI and SB. In fact, given how bad Comerica was for him and how friendly Yankee Stadium will be, I could see 30-40 HRs (he did just hit 30 in Detroit). He could be a real fantasy monster. Im less confident in the AVG rebounding, as I think he's legitimately changed his approach some, giving up some contact for power.
Read the comments following this:
Scutaro has played most of his career in two parks (Oakland and Toronto) badly suited for his swing - as well as two of the parks that most suppress batting AVG (ask Matt Holliday). All indication are Fenway will be particularly helpful to him, as well.
In either case, he can never be Lugo, since a) He's making much less money over a much shorter term; and b) even if he craps out he can be moved to another team or made into a super sub, since he can play multiple positions fairly well. The contract makes this a real low risk, medium reward kind of deal.
There is zero reason to believe Scutaro will be "below average in the field." No idea where youre getting that from. The worst projections are "average," while there is some reason to believe he can be a plus defender. The scouting reports certainly read that way. Also, from Theo's comments today it appears their internal defensive metrics had very favorable readings on Scutaro.
As for the bat - where the hell are you getting 10-20 runs below average??? The last five years he has been +14.5, -7.2, -5.7, +1.0, -5.1. That's a far, far cry from "10-20 runs below average at the plate."
Take off your Yankees cap and stop pulling numbers out of your ass. No one is claiming Scutaro is some sort of impact player, but he could probably best your projections for him on one leg.
No one is "obsessed" with cost. The issue is that a fair and accurate evaluation of front office performance can't be made without taking into account the resources available.
Uh... the pitcher, not the actor/entertainer...
Oh hell, both of them if you want.
Thoughts on Will Smith?
Wow! A big fatbody who can play below average to poor defense at multiple positions!
So your point would be something like: "Red Sox: 75-90% of the Yankee success at half the cost!"...?
I would have a hard time voting for a team that spent 200 million a year for a decade and only has one ring to show for it, and - oh yeah, they had let the core of their team fall apart so much they had to give out almost 500 million in contracts on free agents the year before that title to make it happen.
The only amazing thing about the Yankees of the last decade is that they only won a single title spending that incredible amount of money.
Curious where Hochevar would rank on the 25 and under list if he qualified, as well as any other comments you have on him.
Search function for chats would be great, please. I hate when I half remember a KG comment on a prospect and I have to go to 8 different chat pages to try to find it.
Get ready to miss some really great players. Everyone is aware there is an inherent risk here. The issue is you need to lean much more heavily on scouting (vs. stats) with low minors guys, IMHO.
So if there was Fantasy Baseball in the early 1900's and you saw Babe Ruth go 0-8 with 4 Ks over two days you wouldn't have drafted him, either?
If you can only go by what you saw: 1) You're going to miss a hell of a lot; and 2) you're on the wrong website.
This system has two 5 star players and 2 4 star players, with lots of 3s. At the end of the day, it might be down a little from years past, but its still going to compare favorably.
Anybody in the org. you talked to regretting the aggressive promotion at this point...?
No way. Pujols is heads, tails and a mile better.
vs RHP: .298/.383/.543
vs LHP: .244/.316/.428
vs RHP: .330/.419/.622
vs LHP: .346/.452/.646
Pujols is the better contact hitter by a wide margin. Pujols doesnt have a platoon split. Pujols has a 11.1% K rate. Gonzalez K's 19.7% of the time. Gonzalez is a very good fielder, but Id give Pujols the edge there as well. Even though theyre both big sluggers, the difference in baserunning ability is pretty big.
Pujols is a far superior player to Gonzalez any way you cut it. Gonzalez is a lot closer to Ryan Howard.
Pujols doesnt have a huge platoon split.
I have to agree with you - its just too early to tell. There are many possible outcomes for Desme and even the wild extremes wouldn't shock me. I feel like I just don't have enough information to even make an educated guess at this point. Should be very interesting to see what he does in 2010.
Yes, other GMs won't do that... at least no more than usual.
AA has been involved in the trade discussions the entire time. Nothing has really changed. Every GM knows AA. He's not some noob they think they can/should try to scam out of Halladay.
Its been reported that the Sox offered Michael Bowden.
Ive heard some positive things about Jackson's swing... but having seen it a few times now (months apart) it seems like an awfully long/slow stroke.
There's one more guy better than Sabathia.
Span's never shown power at all except briefly in the majors. Its not coming back.
"I think it's dangerous to look at the overall numbers and take comfort in the idea that he's been the victim of bad luck. Smoltz's problem has been the big inning, especially late in the game."
Swing and a miss. Might want to take another whack at reading this article.
"Yankees: They figure to be quiet because they feel their team is good enough to get to the postseason and win it all as-is."
That might be the party line. I see a team a) without many obvious places where they can upgrade; and b) without the bullets to pull off a significant upgrade. Montero and Jackson are both far off limits. As are Cano, Hughes and Joba. What's left that can land an impact player?
Yeah... about that. You said he "just missed the cut."
On behalf of your readers, if you ever have trouble cutting down from six guys to five, well please feel free to throw in that sixth guy! I dont think anyone is gonna complain that you broke the format or anything...
How bout this for a fit: Ty Wigginton?
3B and LF... can fill in all over and adds more power to the lineup.
Those guys are elite basestealers who steal against everyone.
The Red Sox have openly coached their pitchers not to speed up their delivery or worry too much about baserunners. Their extent of holding runners is basically to hold for different times before delivering each pitch. There are a number of organizations that take this approach. Theyre more interested in pitchers focusing on delivering their pitches.
Varitek doesnt have a good arm, but its not awful. Kottaras does have a decent arm, but no shot while catching Wake.
"Fine-tuning might include acquiring a catch-and-throw reserve backstop; both Jason Varitek and George Kottaras have thrown out fewer than 20% of attempting basestealers, a bad weakness to have when you’re in the same division as Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Brett Gardner."
I dont think there are many who would best those kind of numbers. As an organization, the Sox de-emphasize this with their pitchers.
Id prefer BP continuing doing what theyre doing - an integrated approach that tries to paint the whole picture instead of just half.
Besides, BA's half full of crap anyway. What they "do well" is apparently invite beat writers who have no clue to write up top 10 lists.
Its all SSS.
He's only had 244 ABs as a pro. Of those, only 64 were against LHPs. At that point just 3 more hits would have him batting .250. As you say, its never been a problem before - and him being a switch hitting further adds to the skepticism.
Who would they platoon him with? LHH (and terrible) Chris Davis...? LHH Hank Blalock?
Kevin - any thoughts on Rzepczynski?
#87 going into 2009:
So decent shot at top 50 I would guess...?
Where are you getting this impression that Manny is beloved?
He's not regarded as one of the game's greatest villains or anything(though perhaps he should be), but he's certainly not beloved everywhere. Hated in Boston. Hated in New York (regards of having been in Boston). Hated in San Fran (He's a Dodger). Hated in Cleveland (took the cash and ran). The guy has burned lots of bridges and is reviled in a number of the biggest baseball markets. Manny is neither likable nor hugely popular outside of LA. He's a lot closer to hated. His antics are sometimes amusing, but in the way you laugh at what Terrell Owens does... but you wouldnt describe him as likable or hugely popular.
They do have another solid catching prospect - Austin Romine. Pretty solid all around. Kevin has previously called him their catcher of the future.
Seriously?? He has a .400 OBP and a ~.500 SLG. Kid is a stud all the way.
You know who's else is batting around .267(actually .268)? Adrian Gonzalez. What a huge disappointment that guy has been this year, eh?
No! Still a terrible trade.
Santana isnt doing "just okay." .268/.405/.496 is more than "just okay" for a good defensive catcher. That's a 901 OPS. 55 BB to 38 Ks, too.
Regardless, if Santana and Meloan were both struck dead by lightning tomorrow, the trade would still have been a big mistake. He gave away a lot of value for a pretty mediocre asset. It was a bad trade at the time and it remains a bad trade. Good GMs dont give away value like that.
Will his power carry at 3B? Id imagine Jemile Weeks will be the better shortstop of the two...
Heard any back up plans for Weeks? CF?
Hey, Kevin, If Montero was even an average defensive SHORTSTOP, how high in the rankings would he be? top 15? if he was a great defensive SHORTSTOP?
What if he could throw 100 mph and fart lightning bolts??
Yes, and he's been promoted since then and hasnt exactly raked... until the last couple days
Unfortunately I think we will be trending towards more of this as the draft keeps rising in visability, not less...
I dont know how much stock you want to put into it, but on Brandon Jacobs, reports are he is no longer leaning football:
"Auburn football signee chooses pro baseball
Posted by Charles Goldberg -- Birmingham News June 10, 2009 4:30 PM
Auburn running back/linebacker signee Brandon Jacobs will sign a professional baseball contract with Boston after the Red Sox selected him in the 10th round of the Major League draft on Wednesday, according to our friends at AuburnSports.com. Jacobs told Inside the Auburn Tigers that the Red Sox have agreed to pay for his college education.
Jacobs told AuburnSports.com he'll sign for second-round money, which may mean upwards to $800,000. The website also said Jacobs would have been a grayshirt this season at Auburn, meaning he would not have played."
Will tomorrow's roundtable have more than three questions...?
Could definitely see Purke dropping to Boston.
FYI, KG proudly built and launched the Feliz bandwagon...
Just wanted him to weigh in. The guy is kind of a train wreck (Kevin previously described him as having "more red flags than a Chinese army parade") and has shown pretty uninspiring results against younger competition so far this year... but he still gets a ton of hype and has laughably been on the BA top 100 two years running. He still has a lot of fanboys for some reason and I was hoping KG would weigh in with the industry consensus on this guy.
Are you aware Grady Sizemore is half African-American?
So, in your opinion, Andrew Brackman should not be considered a top 100 prospect, right?
How can he pick Pedroia? This is the "Real Life" All Star team. Fantasy stats like HR and SB dont have added significance here.
Take a look at their slash stats and defense.
That rationale for Tex over Youk doesnt make a whole lot of sense. You admit he was "comparable" (I would say better) last year and "outperformed" him this year... but youre giving it to Tex on... a career achievement basis...?
Not sure I follow this line of thought.
Dont get me wrong - if youre asking me to wager who will be better in the future Im taking Teixeira. What's the point of this entire thing, though, if we're not rewarding performance to some extent? There's nothing Youk could do to get your vote over Teixeira...? Why even look at the numbers then. Just fill out a ballot with your favorite players before the season.
Well, again, you could make the same arguments about Peavy's value. Regardless of that, if youve made the decision to trade Peavy - for whatever reasons - you should trade Gonzalez too in order to try to obtain a young championship caliber core.
You have twenty other needs... why hold on to the mashing 1B? Youre going to try to build a team around him and nothing else? I dont buy it. They have too many other problems. By the time you fill those other needs Gonzalez will be approaching free agency. It doesnt make a lot of sense.
I can understand that there is no urgency to trade him RIGHT NOW... but if youve decided to rebuild you dont want to wait too long because youre just delaying the rebuilding process. Gonzalez is a piece for a contender. You want the guys you trade him for to be ready around the same time the guys you got for Peavy are...
Youre missing the point. If you can get three good players who arent as good as Gonzalez in 2012 but are still going to be under team control for 5-6 years... well, you came out ahead, because you dont have to break the bank to re-sign Gonzalez or let him walk and break up your young core.
The Red Sox would rightfully hang up on you if you asked for that return.
Youre not if he stays healthy. Fangraphs has his last full season (2007) as worth >$25M.
That's great value.
The only reason his three year numbers (not sure why you chose that) are deflated is because he missed time in 08, pitching only 173 innings.
Yeah... still no idea how to make a lineup out though.
Also has a penchant for playing terrible defensive players over better choices.
Right. If you cant afford to spend that kind of money on your #1 starter... what exactly are you saving it for? That's a discount rate for what Peavy gives you.
You would be wrong.
Really? I cant see anyone making a Teixeira like offer for anyone. The value of prospects has shifted. That was a boatload that Texas got from Atlanta in the first place... it was considered a ton of value even then.
Unless you meant Tex to LA for Kotchman...?
That's exceptionally affordable for the kind of player Peavy is.
$52 million guaranteed over three years is affordable for the majority of teams, and is a bargain for many mid market teams that otherwise could never get a player of this talent in free agency without committing 8 years and >100 mill.
I was saying that is why they SHOULD trade Gonzalez.
tombores99 was saying they wouldnt trade Gonzalez because he is affordable, controlled and good. The same arguments go for Peavy, so if they saw fit to trade Peavy it stands to reason they wont let those things stop them from trading Gonzalez.
You could cite the same reasons for not trading Peavy! Where would they get a controlled, affordable Ace?
Is it? The guy is kind of a lunatic and knocks his players to the press all the time. I wouldnt want to play for him and Im sure there are plenty of others.
Also, he's really bad at some aspects of managing. Like setting a batting order. Its like him and Ron Gardenhire have a bet to see who can bat the most .290 OBP players 1-2 in the lineup.
Where is this "grumbling among Boston fans?" Please.
You mean "among YANKEE fans."
Ive long thought this year's NL West winner would win somewhere around 43 games.
EVERY YEAR Martinez has never actually done well - he's just held his own against older competition.
Id like to see him actually hit well once, regardless of ARL. Until then he's just a good prospect to me, not a top 50 guy.
I never said that... I said the University of Miami (the one in Florida) was named after the nearby city. Go read it again.
You really, really need to work on your reading comprehension.
Yeah... about that... Doing some research before opening your mouth would help you not look stupid.
My original point was made jokingly, anyway. Besides, I said "MAJOR American city." Major was the important part...
Except the University in Florida was named for the nearby City (actually in Coral Gables), not the tribe, strictly speaking...
What I dont understand is why people who name their University after a major American city a 1,000 miles away get angry when confusion arises.
They should just rename the Ohio school "Fake Miami."
Of course, I should mention my parents are both Alums of the Florida school...
If he could hit 15 HRs that would have ranked him what? 15th among MLB 3B last year.
The Mets move EVERYONE too aggressively.
Same thing happened with Gomez. People were excited about his hitting ARL... neither of these guys has ever actually hit.
Its a good preview of what he would look like in the New Yankee Stadium at Arlington.
Hmm... was kind of jokingly hoping that you might use this opportunity (my comment) to tell us a little something about Rondon...
Im pretty sure anyone can put up Manny Ramirez-esque defense in LF.
You chose to feature Mike Carp over Rondon???
I mean... we knew you already follow this stuff on a daily basis. Why not share your reactions with us? Really a great idea.
Also, I can't wait to see what you have on Hector Rondon tomorrow.
Awesome! I anxiously await all your articles. Every morning I check to see if there's a new future shock up.
KG's in charge for one week and this place is already turning into Baseball America! /kidding
I think youre understating the improvement in the Texas defense.
On Ryan's velocity... gameday is making it out to be only a drop of less than one mph.
You put Brandon Allen in top 100... but give him no chance to be the #1 in a relatively weak ChiSox system...?
Take another look.
Dan Giese, Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves arent even on the same planet with Smoltz/Buchholz/Bowden/Masterson. A HOF pitcher who still projects great, last year's best pitching prospect in the game and two other high end, MLB ready starting pitcher prospects. Masterson was #53 on last year's top 100 prospects and Bowden was #31 this year. Hughes hasnt had the same stuff for the last year and a half/two years. A lot of Yankee fans want to throw him in with Buchholz as "elite pitching prospects" but I dare you to find someone in baseball who would trade Buchholz for Hughes. The depth the Yankees have is mostly in DH/corner types and middle relievers... its just not comparable to what the Sox have.
I wouldnt say the Yanks or Rays have "poor depth" by any means, but its nothing like the depth Boston has.
We know for a fact that Joba can't pitch a full year this year. That's different than saying "Kazmir could get hurt."
"The cream of the league is so tightly grouped that it's easy to envision any scenario that involves play-in games after the regular season, and all three teams can already be second-guessed before we've played a single game: Going without an A-Rod replacement during his injury-induced absence? Sending down David Price? Missing Manny?"
Great article, Mark.
Very innovative way of approaching the issue.
Agree completely. Reports on his Slider this spring werent great.
It should not be a surprise to anyone if he has some struggles in his rookie season. Look at Clay Buchholz. It is becoming more and more common for guys to come into the majors as MLB ready regulars or stars. This isnt always the case. There is a lot to adjust to on and off the field for these young men.
A good CF prospect came up last year and put up a line of .280/.336/.413 and an UZR of 14.9.
People were not thrilled for some reason. I dont understand it.
Baseball would have been perfect for the system World Soccer uses. Big teams would have to buy talent from lower division clubs. Its scary how much sense it would make. The downside would be that some of the best talents might get stuck down for a couple years (Not a major concern - it doesnt happen that much in soccer). The upside is the minor league would absolutely be worth watching and cheering for.
Thanks a lot, Branch Rickey.
Those guys over at Baseball Prospectus did - oh, wait...
Pablo Sandoval isnt exactly proven... and if he ends up at 1B he's basically a replacement level player.
Or perhaps I missed the sarcasm...?
I think its a programming error/typo. If you look at the runs scored/runs allowed projections, you do NOT get a pyth of 100 Wins for the Yanks... unless Im doing it wrong.
Right. I hate the Knicks... but every time I that Willis Reed footage...
Its pretty despicable to throw around accusations like this.
was covered in a previous unfiltered titled "Mini-UTK..."
If youre going to make an app, make one for a real phone like the BlackBerry Storm!
Still, none of the three are worth Clay Buchholz.
"Maybe Jesus Montero really can catch after all"
Youre just going to get them started again! Prepare for 37 questions on this in your next chat...
That was my understanding as well. He wants to play SS, but theyre going to make him pitch 100 innings first, then play the reas of the year at SS.
My understanding was scouts loved him as a pitcher... and he's likely a good defensive SS, but his bat ceiling is a question mark.
I wouldnt worry about the Rangers!
Those kids are doing just fine...
No need to apologize. Those of us without any baseball sources are happy to hear the latest rumblings from people in the know.
I think everyone is aware that baseball rumors have a high failure rate... still love to hear them!
Torn rotator cuff AND torn labrum.
"Rangers pitching prospect Eric Hurley is expected to miss the 2009 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and frayed labrum in his right shoulder.
Rotator cuff and labrum damage is the worst possible combination for a pitcher and will likely be tougher to come back from than Tommy John elbow surgery. Hurley made his MLB debut as a 22-year-old and looked like a long-term No. 3 starter in the making, but is now out for 2009 and a major question mark beyond that."
Going to be out for a long time. Decent chance he's toast...
That's a pretty convoluted hypothesis. Occam's razor wise, I think we can safely say Pedro was just really, really good.
Does anyone claim Babe Ruth wasnt really that much better than his peers, but rather that the pitchers day in and day out just faced so many garbage hitters that they werent prepared to face a guy like the Babe?
One can only wonder at how ridiculous Pedro's numbers might have looked had he hit his peak in 2008 instead of in the middle of an offensive explosion.
Yes, that person would have been ridiculous.
Yes, I think its quite possible no one better will ever come along (talking about peak seasons relative to what the rest of the league was doing).
Its silly to list all-time greats as upside for prospects. Saying "his upside is Pedro" is like saying his upside is Ruth or Koufax. At his peak, Pedro can certainly make an argument for best season of all time, relative to era. Its absurd to list that as an upside comp because really, we arent talking about his relatively short peak or 2008 Pedro. if youre listing Pedro as his upside you mean peak Pedro. There quite possibly was no one better than his 98, 99 seasons. Its like asking what are the chances that Neftali Feliz's upside is "the best pitcher ever?" Its distasteful and counter productive.
That's like asking:
Do you think Smoak's upside is that of a Lou Gehrig or a healthy switch hitting Prince Fielder?
No one's upside is Pedro Martinez. That's ridiculous.
Please! I suggested this before in the Indians Top 11 comments and got no response.
I would love to see the write ups for some of these guys!
Word is Gabbard is being converted to a LOOGY/LH reliever.
David Murphy and Kason Gabbard are two very marginal MLB players. Beltre was the entire deal, and while he has tools coming out the kazoo, he hasnt really produced or turned those into skill yet.
Moot point because Gagne was so bad for Boston, but this deal wasnt nearly as skewed as youre making it. In fact, if Gagne hadnt sucked so hard the Sox would have gotten a comp pick for him. It was amazing he performed poorly enough to lose Type A status...
good point... point.
There's nowhere on him Id want to put a quarter in!
He\'s got a lot of time for the power to develop? What does that matter if scouts dont think he will develop power? ie his swing doesnt generate backsping/loft or he has the wrong swing plane, etc...
Hell, Michael Ynoa is even younger - that doesnt mean he has a chance to develop power at the plate...
I was under impression only subscribers could post...
That explains a lot. I was shocked that some of these absurd comments were coming from BP subscribers.
Really? I think some of the best analysis is being done over there. Cameron and Tango are great and there is new and interesting stuff every day.
By the bye... the Keith Olbermann forward was pretty entertaining and well written.
Or Henry Rodriguez...
Good question. I completely forgot about him and I opened the article meaning to ask this question.
Foremost on my mind is whether they see him as a reliever or starter...
I scrolled down to \"The Sleeper\" expecting it to be Hunter... curious where he belongs.
Second this... your assessment of him last year turned my head. Wondering where his ceiling is now. Thanks.
\"Nonetheless, as last year\'s high-QERA, low-defensive efficiency Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Reds discovered, procuring pitching without addressing underlying defensive woes is like using an HDTV to display SD sources: you simply won\'t end up with the pretty picture you thought you were paying for.\"
Love this quote... but what pitching did the 08 Yankees \"procure?\" They went with incumbent vets and threw some rookies into the rotation. Are you guilty of looking forward to the 09 Yankees? They have spent a ton of money on pitchers and other than Teixeira have done nothing to improve a pretty awful defensive team(5th worst in MLB, 3rd worst in AL in 2008). In that case, you make a great and much overlooked point.
Reminds of me when PECOTA was pessimistic on the 2007 Rays...
I can\'t believe we\'re only a few years away from ARod\'s somber, strange, and soulless quest to break Barry Bond\'s lifetime home-run record.
Should be a fun!
Right, preventive care... and PEDs.
One criticism... this list seems to have numerous candidates for \"weakest three star guy to make a top 11.\"
Just based on your descriptions it seems like many of these guys are similar to the two star guys youve written up. For instance, you just gave Tyler Sample two stars... and his write up sound a lot better than a few of the three star guys on this list.
...but much more professional that accusing a professional of bias.
Especially when, if you had read the comments already instead of just rushing to post, you would have seen Kevin already said:
\"Yeah, you\'ve found an bit of a weakness in the system. Basically, 5-star for me is a top 50 level prospect. Now, until I actually DO a Top 100, that\'s a bit of a guessing game. I thought they\'d rank lower personally, and then when I added it all up there were less 5-star guy than expected, so I\'d up Martinez and Rosario.\"
That\'s right - this shouldnt even be an issue because he has changed FMart and Rosario to five star.
Or maybe the plus column for basball just still outweighs the minus column. Just like how I keep watching the NBA despite the fact the refs are insane, crooked and awful.
Steroids ARE a bad drug. Do people not understand why there has to be a limit to PEDs??
Can you imagine a sports world with no regulation of PEDs? It would be perennial race to find who has the best doctor. Player health would always be at risk as they try to find that next edge. Instead of worrying about who has the best fastball we would have fantasy magazines talking about what roids a pitcher is using. Steroids would become a necessity for all MLB players. THAT is the evil of steroids and why they must be banned and why those who use them must be condemned. We are always a hair away from a bizarro, 1984 style professional sports world. The level of competition and the money involved form a gigantic force forever pushing things in that direction. Much like with freedom, the price here is constant vigilance.
What does that prove? That story broke the same time as the ARod story!
Take a look at the Mitchell report coverage.
It was a broken wrist and that\'s a great point. I would take him over Aviles anyday. I see nothing to like about Aviles.
What I was saying is that I, personally, have zero doubt that steroids are effective.
I dont care why ARod is the story. He\'s a public figure and he did something wrong - it was an illegal act, performance enhancing or not. If he gets more than his share, well, that\'s life. If that\'s the price for the money he makes you can sign me up.
Its funny the outrage ARod fans seem to have over the leaks. No one doubts the leaks are wrong, but that doesnt change the fact ARod did in fact use steroids.
Its even more funny that these same people want the other 103 names to come out.
Privacy for ARod = good. Privacy for everybody else = bad.
\"Enough of this witch hunt against ARod! That information never should have been leaked! That\'s the real crime!
Now lets get those other 103 names out! Why do those guys get off scot-free!?\"
Major hypocrisy. Only makes sense if our goal is \"diminish what ARod has done.\"
They were an ILLEGAL substance. They were also prohibited by baseball. Although practically, it was probably not possible to punish players because of collective bargaining issues, that doesnt change the fact it was prohibited by baseball.
Let me ask you this:
1) Do steroids help you in with weight training?
2) Does weight training help you on the baseball diamond?
If you answer \"Yes\" to both of these questions I dont understand how you can maintain that steroids dont help you play baseball. I cant imagine anyone answering \"No\" to either of these, either. Steroids improve baseball performance by helping you get stronger and heal quicker. Just because its not a pill you can take that makes your flyballs automatically go farther doesnt mean its not helping you.
Steroids are also cheating IMHO.
The notion they were cheating has always been there, too. Its not like in 2005 people woke up and said \"wait a minute, that\'s cheating!\" Go back to 1990, 1980, 1970, etc... and ask players, FO personnel and MLB execs and even the steroid users: \"Are steroids cheating?\" and they would answer \"Yes.\"
They were explicitly forbidden by the Fay Vincent memo. Yes, he admitted he couldnt enforce it - but what does that change??? The ability to punish players has nothing to do with whether they are cheating or not. Vincent wasnt able to punish them for a tertiary reason that has nothing to do with this. I dont understand why people jump on the fact Vincent admitted he couldnt enforce it. The fact he issued it is far more telling about what people though about steroids.
Just because its \"not breaking a rule\" doesnt fly with me either. There is no rule on the books against stealing signs, even electronically. Its just a memo from the commish - SAME AS IN THIS CASE. Yet any type of sign stealing would be, to ballplayers, \"cheating. The only difference with steroids is it overlapped collective bargaining issues.
I dont question that is happening... my issue is whether actively trying to find out those other 108 names is a good goal to have. What\'s the point here? To make ARod look better by comparison? Do we really think if all those names came out the Steroids story would go away...? I thought the party line at BP was that we want the steroids story to go away - in that light, it seems strange to want those other names to come out...
I dont think making ARod look comparatively better by bringing down more players is something we should shoot for. THAT sounds like TMZ to me.
I also dont agree that steroids isnt the reason for the ARod backlash. Did people hate Raffy or Big Mac? Why were those such big stories? Im sure a good bit of it is the taking down of a celebrity - but I cant feel bad for these guys because they put themselves in that situation.
I agree with you w/respects to the NFL. I have no doubt they have ten times the steroids problem of MLB.
Dammit, Joe Sheehan, I didnt expect you to comment in the middle of a Carroll thing! Sorry!
So Will, youre against a \"witch hunt\" (admittedly not your words!) against ARod to find out the details of him using - the whole TMZ thing, unless Ive misunderstood - which is entirely possible...
But you would be totally for a \"witch hunt\" to find out the other 108 names who tested positive?
To what end?
Those were news stories in turn, though not on this level. ARod is the highest paid player in the game and a much more news worthy story. Its not some kind of witch hunt - the American public doesnt care about the Mike Morse\'s of the world. They do care about ARod.
The reason its still being talked about today is that he keeps adding info for some insane reason. He needs to just stop talking about it.
Other steroids stories have caused a media frenzy like this! Rafael Palmeiro was a big story. McGwire crying was a big story. The Mitchell Report was a big story. Barry Bonds has been a huge story a hundred times over.
No one is claiming those other 100+ names dont count. We dont have them, though. Theyre sealed evidence. There is nothing we can do about that. Should we ignore the ARod story because we cant find out the rest of the names right now? Give me those other names and Ill skewer them too, but enough of this portraying ARod as a victim. He DID use steroids and got caught. Im aware that 8% of the players got caught too, and I think theyre deserving of as much condemnation when/if we find out who they are. It doesnt change that we know for a fact that ARod was one of those names right now.
Im not following you...
You are aware ARod both tested positive and has admitted to using steroids, right?
I would agree with you that speculation about other players without any sort of evidence or proof or confession is not worthwhile. Fortunately, in ARod\'s case we have all those things and can be 100% sure he used steroids. Therefore, I dont consider it covering \"this story as if we’re the sports section of TMZ\" when people criticize him for doing what he had openly admitted to doing and apologizing for. I would say random speculation about players would be more TMZ-like than anything.
In fact, one could easily take the opposite tack from you and applaud the media for not accusing others of using steroids in the complete absence of evidence.
Also, hilariously, Dusty plans on batting him lead off.
How does this guy keep getting jobs?
Im not sure I want to kill Amaro for it, but I agree that Ibanez was an awful idea and contract.
Rather than make it a referendum on Amaro and where the Phils are going Im inclined to chalk this up to \"badly misinterpreting where the market was headed.\"
The difference is Kennedy was never the finesse/control pitcher he was made out to be. His walk rates throughout the minors were never great - just good. The only thing he has in common with control artists like Slowey, Moyer, etc... isnt control - its marginal stuff.
Take a look at his walk rates. He walked WAY more guys than Slowey in the minors. Kennedy has been typecasted as something he\'s not.
A very mediocre offense.
One made worse by Gardenhire mad desire to bat two speedy .310 OBP players 1-2.
Hmmm... Well, working on the assumption that these projected standings are run off a database using the weighted means (when will that be updated, btw??)... what if the projections were done using the 40th percentile and 60th percentile for every player? Or 30 and 70, etc...
That would give a great look at team \"upside.\" I realize you wouldnt want to run those every day all season, but a one team pre-season run would sure be fun and informative.
I would think Chris Carter (or even Jeff Bailey - though he isnt on the 40 man) would have the edge over Van Every in terms of playing time at LF behind Bay. Theyre probably all behind Baldelli, Kotsay, Wilkerson too, so I would think 10% of LF for Van Every is high...
I dont know that it makes much difference, but isnt it time to put Penny as the #5 starter and Buchholz somewhere around #7? The IP projections already reflect this...
Anyone who doesnt burst on the scene as a ready made fantasy God like Evan Longoria is immediately labeled a \"bust\" or \"awful\" these days.
Players do improve their discipline and patience as they get old, but think of it more as \"slight improvements\" and \"over the course of their career.\"
Not so much \"drastic improvements\" and \"upon reaching the high minors/MLB.\"
The ability of young players (like Andrus) to improve their OBP/walk rate is being dramatically overstated as of late.
Pretty sure its Inoa...
Kevin, any comments on Inoa\'s ranking?
Or should I just wait for the Athletics top 11?
Does anyone have Castro above Smoak? I thought this was a given...
I dont know... was hoping youd have some magical answer that would put a divide between them... like... \"Hosmer\'s extra power is too much to ignore!\" or something like that. Thanks anyway.
I guess at this point Im just bearish on Brignac\'s ability to reach that potential.
I know you havent done the Rangers yet... but Im having trouble separating Smoak and Hosmer as prospects. One high school, one college. One a switch, one a lefty. Massive power vs. polished high AVG. What is the difference in ceiling here? I cant eyeball it at all and Im curious to hear who scouts like more... well... Hosmer apparently, but Im curious as to their rationale. Thanks.
So I see you havent given up on Brignac or Adenhart yet...
Andrus at 73 and Brignac at 62...? I understand Brignac profiles as a more complete hitter and Andrus\'s secondary skills are fairly limited, but that still strikes me as a strange choice.
Speaking of which... when will we see a new weighted means spreadsheet? Its vastly different from the PECOTAs up now w/playing time adjustments.
Im still surprised Abreu makes that much of a difference with the bat. Looking at the PECOTAs for Sarge, Jr. and Juan Rivera I guess it is a pretty big upgrade.
Stupid East Coast Bias!
Im pretty shocked Abreu was a 4 win difference... isnt PECOTA aware he\'s now a terrible defender?
He probably would be as viable an option as Dunn or Manny in the OF.
Thankfully for Royals fans, Dayton Moore isnt that dumb.
I think Dave Cameron had a great article over at fangraphs about this.
Simply taking his away ABs as his \"true talent\" line is a woefully inadequate way to measure Holliday\'s talent. NEARLY EVERY PLAYER hits better at home. Taking his home ABs out of the equation unfaily punishes Holliday. A better way is to correct ALL his batting stats for park and run scoring environment.
I think this may just be a symptom of the larger issue: pitchers are inherently more difficult to predict from year to year than hitters.
To clarify: Most of those articles, that is, and again, my issue wasnt the Ellsbury wasnt hyped up... Im just saying much of that can be attributed to a hot start. The contention was that before the season many people picked him ROY and I dont think there\'s much if any truth to that.
Those arent from before the season. As I said, those were from when he came out of the gates like a rocket.
1) He\'s almost certain to get \"serious BABIP love\" consistently because of his speed.
2) .336 is a decent OBP. ~.330 is average. If he\'s a GG quality CFer with tremendous speed who gets 50SB/5CS every year with a .350 OBP that would be a pretty valuable player to have. Sign me and every GM in baseball up for that. That\'s a great leadoff option.
3) Considering PECOTA has him for a .348 OBP this season as a 25 year old in his sophmore season Id say him consistently getting on base at a .350 clip is pretty reasonable and his peak years will probably surpass that.
A .336 OBP \"isn\'t acceptable?\" He\'s a center fielder!
Right now, this season, he was an above average option at CF. He looked like he was going to be much better until he got hurt diving for a ball at the end of May and his swing got messed up. He didnt recover for a couple months.
He\'s a very good player. What KG means, and I mostly agree with, is that he lacks the secondary skills to make his ceiling much higher - but he\'s a very good player.
Though there was talk of Ellsbury winning when he started off hitting like .335 with 30 SBs, to be fair... but that\'s not really the same. I dont think saying he was overhyped when he was hitting .335 is a particularly cogent point, you know?
You got a link on this??? Longoria, Joba and Buchholz were the favorites most places IIRC
Yes, where is the mention of \"incredible luck?\"
\"Jacoby Ellsbury: That\'s a pure bullseye. He\'s good, but the Boston hype machine put him up there as a star; PECOTA saw through that, as PECOTA doesn\'t read.\"
Who is putting Jacoby Ellsbury up as a \"star?\" I hear this claimed a lot... Ive never really seen it happen, and I live in the Boston area.
He was a good CFer in his rookie season and started off better before hitting a rookie wall. Is 90% of Ichiro a \"star?\" He wsa ~3.5 wins last year. That\'s pretty good.
What kind of reasoning is that? Baseball is a game, but at the MLB level its a very big business as well.
Im all for the fun, but if Im a M\'s fan and they lose Ichiro for the year because he got hurt pitching in the WBC I would be pretty p***ed off and less likely to spend my money on them.
The amount of people who didnt read the comments above are stunning. I found the first fifteen \"Player X on my favorite team doesnt have the appropriate amount of playing time!\" comments funny. The next hundred are just irritating. RTFA, people.
Clay is already aware of these problems and it says so above. Please stop.
Hey, in all fairness Will was just talking about how ARod using Roids made him question his love for the game...
...or something like that...
Clay, you forgot to put an asterisk next to A-Rod\'s projection in the Team Depth Charts...
Denial: Not just a river in Africa...
Sort of... but it has always been in the purview of MLB to punish/suspend a player if they were arrested/charged with using an illegal substance. The same goes for steroids.
I would argue the same goes for if there is evidence of someone using steroids. No one would blink if the NFL punished a player for this - they do it all the time, often not waiting to see if there\'s a conviction, and even if the player pleads out.
Who is forgetting this? No one is. It doesnt change anything.
He used steroids and lied about it. I dont care if every other ballplayer did - that\'s still a scumbag thing to do. Watch the Couric interview again. Disgusting.
Lets just hope Barry Lamar isnt the one doing the pissing... or the page with be covered with THG... and the government\'s case just got stronger!
Are they? Undoubtedly the political/moral reasons are a major element, but if youre implying there is no medical risk associated with anabolic steroids you are way off base. There are compelling medical reasons to ban steroids. Not just talking the abuse of steroids either. This isnt a blue laws issue.
That already happened. We called it \"2006.\"
So? Jeter has terminal PRS - Poor range syndrome.
If youre saying the Mantle and Yount were obvious candidates to move because of health issues - well, that\'s not really any different from where Jeter is.
I am slightly surprised by Carmona. I was more surprised to find Asdrubal so LOW, frankly. He\'s held his own in the majors at a very young age and has shown improvement. He\'s a patient hitter already and a plus plus defender. Id put him above Weglarz and Adam Miller. Miller I just dont believe can stay healthy and Weglarz is looking awfully Garko-esque.
Damn... any chance you want to give us a quick write up on De La Cruz?
You know... that would make for a great article. I know youre swamped trying to finish the top 11s right now... but Im always unhappy when I see a guy in the \"Just Missed\" who Im curious about. I would love to see your write ups on the top 11 (or 33 or whatever!)guys around baseball who \"just missed.\" Complete with \"the Good\" \"the Bad\" and perfect world projections, etc...
Its a bummer when I dont get to see your complete write up for someone like De La Cruz. Instead we have to read about the Tigers 11th best \"prospect.\" Your write ups are my first stop all season long and I usually punch something when I see the guy Im looking to read about just missed the list.
Heck, I wouldnt care if this article came in April even. There\'s nothing going on with prospects then and Im always dying for the Monday Ten Packs to start... it would be great to read about the next level of prospects, even if it was just quick write ups. I realize this is probably the worst time to ask you about this, what with you rushing to finish the AL and probably sick of making phone calls... but think about it!
Maybe you can explain to me the difference between corking your bat and poisoning the other team\'s starting pitcher on the day of his start.
Yes, most Giants fans do agree on this.
Well, lasix, tinted contacts and video arent illegal under U.S. Law.
You don\'t go to jail if the police catch you using tinted contacts.
Of course they were steroids. The marker in his blood that indicates what he took was steroids wasnt known.
They also werent strictly prohibited by MLB at the time, but that\'s different from what youre saying.
What we have now is (further) strong evidence that Barry Bonds took steroids. He took an illegal (Yes illegal by US Law even if not proscribed by baseball) substance for performance enhancing purposes.
Not sure where you got that...
Its just a rough measure of perceived upside (the term as you would regularly use it) based on how the player\'s top comparables (which is the major part of how PECOTA works - comparing players based on numerous factors in common) performed.
I guess you could look at it as a loose measure of how likely a player is to perform above average based on his comps... of course, there are more learned minds than I on this site, so take it fwiw...
Juan Uribe says \"yes.\"
Ozzie was on his case pretty bad despite some good numbers (minus his last full season).
A) Pedroia still gets a very good projection, and his upside score is very high. There arent many 2B with better projections.
B) Youkilis is projected for a great line.
C) This is like the best line PECOTA has given J.D. Drew in years.
D) Ortiz is still projected as one of the better hitters in baseball.
E) Jason Bay\'s projection is still an excellent hitter.
F) Jed Lowrie - okay, he doesnt get a great projection but it still ranks pretty good among SSs.
G) Lowell got a very good projection! In fact, his PECOTA in 08 had his 09 season as .282/.341/.437 with 12 HRs. PECOTA has him for .272/.332/.442 with 14 HRs this year. Considering his injuries that\'s pretty good.
H) If the Sox players perform like this they will be one of the top few teams in baseball.
I) Have you looked at many players around baseball? PECOTA liked the Sox plenty. Take a look at how its killing the Yankees if you want to see it \"hate\" a team. Im a Boston, fan too - so Im pretty excited that its validating what Ive been saying about the Yankees. I was actually pretty pleased with the Sox projections, to tell you the truth.
PECOTA isnt falling for those minor league BAs... about time. Davis looks like he\'s going to have some contact issues. Looks like a .260-.270 hitter to me, at least initially.
No one thought he would sign.
The defensive metrics liked him a great deal.
I dont think he\'s a strength there but I see him pretty close to average - there are worse shortstops defensively and many worse offensively.
That\'s the stupidest thing I\'ve ever heard! Youre an idiot.
I didnt realize there were so many bitter baseball fans in the Red States... As a resident of the Northeast, let me just reiterate that most of us dont care about your baseball or politics!
That said, I dont really like Olbermann. I think most of you on both sides of the aisle have missed the boat anyway. Cheering for political parties like they are baseball teams is about the worst, most irresponsible thing an adult can do, in my opinion. Its all the rage in this country and it needs to stop.
Its all a moot point, too - because WHO THE HECK READS FORWARDS ANYWAY? It might be the last part of the book I read, after Ive gone through all the PECOTAs and new Davenport stuff and after its been relegated to my bathroom for >month.
No need to do the Nats(Not much to talk about there anyway)! Get to the A.L. already, please!!
One objection: Juve HAS to be the Yankees of Serie A.
Really? I would say Liverpool would be the perfect analogy for the Yankees... traditonally dominant, spends a lot of money and hasnt won anything in a decade or so. I guess they resemble Man U in a lot of ways too, though. At least in how they have such a huge international following and their gear is so popular.
The Cubs are clearly Newcastle, btw. Even down to the ownership issues.
Arsenal has to be the Angels... never deviating from their plan or trading young kids/paying for front line stars. Yet they still spend a lot of money and are near the top every year. I guess they could resemble the Red Sox too, because they play a great system and stick to it... especially with player values.
The Indians and Everton seem like a good match. As do the Twinkies and Middleboro. Sunderland and Seattle work. West Ham or Tottenham works for the Orioles. Good tradition.
I often think that baseball would be much better off with a transfer system. Then the Yankees would really have to pay out the a** for their players, and at least the Royals and Brewers of the World would get paid. Second division teams could still garner a lot of interest because people would better understand their limitations and would adjust their expectations. Damn that Branch Rickey... this almost happened. I would have loved to have seen a Saudi Sheikh purchase the Tigers and make a bid for Grady Sizemore.
Great analogy on Watergate.
Dont hear much about pay-for-performance anymore either...
Im a big Marvin Miller fan... but if I ran a network going for ratings Im not sure labor law makes the best documentary for drawing in fans to a new network.
Ah, sorry... +21 UZR/150.
Lowrie was +21.0 runs by UZR and +8 plays by Dewan.
Without having seen the segment its hard to say, but since his point was about the Yankees and their spending - and a mention of collusion would have required a lengthy explanation - it seems like he easily could have made that choice for the sake of brevity.
Play by play based Fielding Metrics! FRAA and FRAR are wacky and they skew the WARPs.
I would think BP would be a leader in this stuff, but I see fangraphs.com adding UZR and all sorts of cutting edge metrics. Where is BP\'s answer?
Other than that, just keep up the great work - but more chats, too please.
\"The Tigers feel shortstop Adam Everett is the equivalent on Wilson and they can acquire more cheaply as a free agent without giving up any players in return.\"
It took them how long to realize this...?
The Tigers dont seem to have a lot of trade chips beyond Larish... you have to think someone would outbid them for Putz, even in this closer-flooded market.