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So, that would mean Jason's firstborn would be named Lindor Lindor-Parks?
Derek Jeter is a great defensive shortstop because millions of Yankees fans say so.
"A lot of defensive stats tell a confusing story after six weeks"
Or six months.. or six years..
The thing that gets me is how many people on comment boards are saying no one would be using a spitter or scuffing the ball thanks to HD television...
The catchers might pay attention to that, though, and the catchers might influence what pitches get called.
Steve Blass works too. I've seen pitchers referred to as having Mackey Sasser disease though. On another topic, Reggie Sanders might've been a Hall of Famer if not for his persistent injuries.
So, 40% of players would have some problem with gay players but it's the same culture that spend the last decade injecting each other in the butt...
Ackley's been real hot the last month.
As a kid, the boating accident that killed Steve Olin and Tim Crews was pretty traumatic.
Thanks to me! :)
I understand that. I know Zack Grienke has social anxiety. Others such as Nick Esasky suffered from vertigo and other players have mental health issues related to concussions. But was Ankiel ever diagnosed with a mental issue, even as amorphous as "Mackey Sasser Disease"? The only thing I ever read was that he didn't think pitching was fun anymore. I know he had Tommy John surgery but that was three years after his playoff appearance.
Bbesity is a hell of a drug.
I'll echo a lot of the previous ones, from the Dickie Thons and Darryl Kiles to the Ken Griffeys... but I'll also add in Don Zimmer and Dave Dravecky.
Also, I'm not sure if Ankiel really counts since it seemed mental issues derailed him more than injuries.
His slider was curving like those old Nintendo games.
WARP incorporates defense supposedly to increase the overall understanding of a player's value, but defensive value is so wonky that it throws off the player's value drastically.
I'm a little surprised stolen base percentages have been going up over time considering fielder's indifference has only been expanded in recent years.
Seems obvious, but it's hard to keep in mind that writers have "other lives". I confused some of Maury's music friends by talking baseball.
Thanks for looking, hope there's something in there that's relevant.
Regarding bullpens, does contact rate and swing percentage based on count vary based on the inning of the game? Perhaps, as a corollary, do hitters see more pitches per plate appearance vs starters or relievers?
I'm not sure if the Cubs pitchers have been bad fielders. Even ones like Sutcliffe, Wood and others were well regarded. I do know, however, that the Cubs had a history (until recently, when they revamped the drainage system) of letting the infield grass grow long which might have affected fielding. Then again, they also do have that self-destructive trait too.
I enjoyed the games in the late 80s, but then again, I was 12. :)
You know the A's park is bad when all you can compare it to is Candlestick... from twenty years ago...
Which part of Rizzo's defense has been bad?
Good to see the Cubs on the list. Bad to note that most of that WARP was accumulated with other teams.
Stolen bases are the new market inefficiency?
Love it when I fail my own math.
Regarding 100 BIP, isn't that the equivalent of about a season and a half of innings from a starting pitcher? Which is generally used as a gauge to see what's a trend?
Maybe it might be interesting to take pitchers who have extremely low or extremely high BABIP over 300 innings last year and see how much that predicts their performance for this year?
The GM at least cares enough to get _something_ back.
The thing that I didn't quite understand.
"In addition to groundball/flyball/pull/opposite field tendencies, wouldn't BABIP vary by how well the pitcher in question was throwing on that day?"
Then you say:
"At first, I ran a logistic regression using only the previous 10 BIP as a predictor, controlling for the league BABIP for that year. And I got...nothing. There was no significant association between recent performance and what happened on the next ball in play. It looked like each ball in play, once it left the bat, was equally as likely to fall in as any other. Or at least like recent performance wasn't going to help me."
10 BIP is probably about 2-3 innings of work. I'm not sure the average number of BIP in a game but I'd think it'd be around 30-40. So, basically, 10 BIP is not predictive of BABIP, though 20 has some significance, though not as strong as 30, not as strong as 40, etc...
To return to the original quote, is this saying BABIP does not do a good job at predicting performance on that one specific day?
Is it also saying that BABIP does a better job at predicting performance over multiple starts (and might be pretty much useless for relievers over the course of two months).
Then, thirdly, if BABIP is far from the league norm, which matters more.. the length of time the BABIP is measured at or the variance from the league norm (and the amount of "snap back"/regression to the mean)?
Those grids remind me of the Punnent's squares from genetics... Jose Fernandez is what happens when a good process mates with a bad outcome.
Stolen-base wise, Raines had a higher percentage of success than Rickey but I don't know, anecdotally, who was better at actual baserunning. Interesting how Henderson, the all-time leader in runs, stolen bases, and 2nd in walks didn't register with an all-time tool, though he had a lot of elite tools.
When EqBRR came out, I remember Juan Pierre being rated very highly.
What's most out of whack is his HR/9 rate. His other ratios like H/9, BB/9 are slightly worse than his career rates, but then again, you're comparing Coors vs a guy who spends half his starts in a pitcher's park like LA.
But is 50 innings enough of a sample size?
In 2010 his ERA in Coors was 2.45 over 2 starts, 11 innings with a 1.364 WHIP. In 2011 his ERA was 6.75 over 2 starts, 12 innings with a 1.417 WHIP.
I'm not sure 50 innings is enough to conclusively say anything, unless you compare Kershaw's pitch selection and pitch movement between Coors and his other starts.
Also, I've seen Livan Hernandez throw at least one eephus pitch during the playoffs at Coors. Were those the pitches excluded for anomalous speed?
Few Rockies pitchers have featured sliders. Usually, its cut fastballs or sinkers then limiting walks and relying on a strong defense i.e. the Aaron Cooks/Jeff Francises of the world.
I clicked on this hoping to rip into the Rockies latest transactions with Colvin and Torrealba/Hernandez. Alas...
Out of curiosity how far is Lombardozzi from the Top 10 under 25? 15ish?
Generally, a player gets 700 a year in full-time duty and Trumbo and Bourjos were both under that.
I don't think Pujols had much to do with Bourjos since he was going to play 1B while Morales DHed. The only way Pujols affected Bourjols is by forcing Trumbo to fight for playing time in the outfield.
However, Wells and Hunter large contracts definitely seemed to make the Angels play them more than Bourjos, especially with Bourjols' slow 2012 start.
Do they get integrated into the playing time forecasts used for PECOTA?
The worst part of the Wells deal is it took at-bats away from players like Trumbo and Bourjols.
So that's how people get an 80 for makeup...
And "being able to translate it from batting practice to game power"
Then, wouldn't someone like Reggie Jackson and his light tower shots count?
Or, can we do an average HR distance for more modern players?
I'm surprised Mantle got the nod. I was going to say Bonds was more deserving, but Pujols has a higher career SLG% than him. Pujols currently is 5th all time, Bonds is 6th, Mantle's 21st... and Babe Ruth's still #1
Sure, there are more ways to measure power than SLG%, but why Mantle?
John, you should know by now that the minusbats never come forth even on quality posts.
Who missed more? Wieters is only a few years into his career and you could look at Benson's first few years and squint and say "He could be a star". Same thing with Hermedia who was productive in his early years.
Oh I definitely agree that BP wasn't the only one projecting big things for Wieters. Maybe he's just this generation's version of Gregg Jeffries.. good player but not the superstar everyone thought he might be.
Still waiting for Wieters to be the next big thing.
I'll echo that. I originally came to BP for PECOTA and comparables and projections and VORP/WARP. I stay for the articles and insight but, sadly, haven't cared for WARP in awhile (though the comparables in this year's Annual were better than previous years). FRAA just seems to affect WARP so much that it's hard for me to really consider it anymore.
Out of curiosity, full disclosure-wise, but when did BP become aware that bad data had entered the system?
Prior to this discussion, I thought "glove" included arm and range and I thought it was on a 20-80 scale.
My interpretation of Jason's comment was that he was polling glove, i.e. ability to catch the ball, as a distinctly separate tool from arm or range. He used a term called "raw glove score" which seemed to have a different definition than "glove". It also used a "8" grade instead of a "20-80". So, yes, I thought that "raw glove" meant "basic ability to catch the ball" along the idea of "that guy has great range but stone hands" or "he doesn't get to much but he catches what he gets to".
I can admit that I most likely read it incorrectly but thanks Brian for at least seeing part of the reason why I was confused.
I think Behemoth was referring to my comment and saying I'm usually "better than this".
So a 8 glove has nothing to do with range or arm? That's funny, because most of the description on the "How to identify it" for outfielders had to do with range, reaction, break, "glide", etc.
Well gosh, if it's just the glove, that should be easy enough... just look at who has the highest fielding percentage (removing throwing errors and assists)... if you want a rough calc though and leave the throwing errors and assists in, Griffey's fielding percentage of .985 was only .002 better than other centerfielders of that time period.. which is "better" but not "All-Time Best"
And hey, if we are just looking at glove, don't we need to reevaluate the other positions? Find someone with fewer passed balls per game than Johnny Bench? Maybe Casey Kotchman instead of Ozzie Smith for being able to catch such a high percentage of balls without making an error?
Eh.. I'm sorry, I think the criteria of this evaluation changed partway through since I thought "glove" included "range".
What about an honorable mention for the Mythbusters episode where they launched a baseball at a steel plate so fast that the cover came off?
I remember the recalculation of FRAA really affecting Ozzie Smith's JAWS score in one of Jay Jaffe's articles.
I agree with the idea that Griffey shouldn't have the all-time tool award. Devon White or early Andruw Jones (or even an Ichiro) would draw my vote. White and Ichiro were great fielders for much longer than Griffey was.
Actually, Kent's clause was "no riding motorcycles".. but when he broke his wrist riding a motorcyle, that's where he lied and said he was washing his truck.
For a stroll down memory lane... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1171962-20-most-ridiculous-contract-clauses-and-incentives-in-mlb-history
The WBC is still too young to see what the full implications of it are. However, if countries are building stadiums and televising baseball, it makes sense that a kid in those countries could latch onto a favorite player from the WBC and start following their major league career.
Being in camp is part of their job description, but so is public outreach. Signing autographs after games, going to fan conventions, playing in exhibitions in Japan, etc. Again, it's a salary position and it's not like players are not doing team-related activies once the season ends.
Owners and teams do have legitimate concerns, but if the risk outweighed the reward, I'm sure they'd figure out some way to deny all player participation or limit it to just fringe players of their organization. They seem to handle the risks and think there are rewards just like they do for winter ball/Carribbean World Series or the AFL.
Come to think of it, the only big difference between the WBC and winter ball is the timing, right?
Your name would've made this list if it was in the book :)
Here's an article by Ken Rosenthal about some of the ways the WBC is benefitting the teams and baseball in general, especially in the absence of baseball as an Olympic sport.
Look at how much the Yankees have profited in terms of merchandising and player acquisition from their international reputation.
Or, consider the Mariners. Though they had a Japanese owner, they didn't get a stream of Japanese players or fans until they signed Ichiro. They didn't sell much international merchandise until Ichiro, etc.
Besides, when the players are training for the WBC they're going through some of the same hitting/pitching/fielding drills and general workouts that they would be doing with their major league teams. Baseball's not like football or basketball built on team rhythm or memorizing formations or the like... So players are still getting ready, they just aren't doing it "with their team".
Yeah and if a team bars a player from playing, it may lead to animosity when contract negotiations come up. Meanwhile, if a team lets a player play, it increases their happiness i.e. "job satistication". Besides, teams send players to the WBC for the marketing opportunity which could lead to merchandising and/or future international recruits.
#8 To see all the people confused about Andruw Jones playing on the Dutch team.
Um, what's this? I mean, I can google it.. but what's this? Just a list of interesting names?
In many jobs, you get paid a salary and are still allowed to do things like attend conferences and/or publish papers that might not necessarily be work-related but are related to your industry. Same concept with baseball. Playing in the WBC doesn't directly help their team but it does help the sport and also helps the player grow. It's little different than Apple sending a programmer to an IT conference.
I'd be happy if the weather forecasts were 30% accurate in Denver...
Tried to do a Frankenstein anagram but I was missing a T and a N
As I recall, the replacement player level was recalculated two to three years ago just because of new ballparks opening and the decline in offense from the 90s.
No one said Willie played every position well :)
I thought the definition of replacement player was basically a quad-A player or minor league free agent. I don't remember bench players ever being part of the equation. Technically, aren't those bench players generally better than the quad-A/freely available talent anyway?
And you forgot all submissions must be via email
Is there a specific theme for the podcast like minor leaguers, predictions, etc?
Nope. Werth had a higher TAv than Harper in 2012 and nothing Werth did was out of his career norm, but PECOTA's expecting a regression for Harper.
To be fair, I've had problems with your writing style and jargon before. However, I've enjoyed the Prospects series and haven't had any issues with style/jargon.
On the flipside, he doesn't party and supposedly has a strong work ethic. There are 20 year olds doing all kinds of crazy things to impress college (or minor league) coaches or "living the high life".
If you acquire rookies and, thus, have them under team control for longer, you should have a better shot at getting more WARP.
As an aside, that Transaction Analysis brings back memories. Loria dumping Delgado and crying about a new stadium, Aaron Rowand being referred to as a center fielder, the bust of the BJ Ryan deal, etc.
Assume for a second it's better to hit your best hitter in the #2 slot. It's quite possible that, as of today, Werth is a better hitter than Harper.
The Orioles would have to really beat up on the Astros to get to 96 wins.. The problem is, other teams will be beating up on the Astros too.
Except they were probably also facing pitchers or hitters who were also using.. if "everyone" is using PEDs, and if you assume PEDs help someone perform better, then does everyone get a boost to performance if someone facing them is also using PEDs and driving down their performance?
Ok thanks for the info.
Don't worry, I didn't know about it offhand hence my first comment :)
"The Giants are like the Moneyball A's. They developed great, cheap pitching and got enough of an offense to win games."
Shouldn't organizations factor in more? Consider Nick Castellanos who, by many accounts, is at least adequate defensively at third base. But, he's been moved to the outfield through no real fault of his own, but because the Tigers moved Miguel Cabrera over. Would Castellanos be higher than #37 if not for the change?
Very good point, thanks.
There was a time, though, when people didn't like Mike Trout either. But yeah, Brown didn't have a good 2012.
Most major leaguers do put in gym work though. If they sat around playing video games, they wouldn't stay in the major leagues long. Ask Joel Zumaya.
First person suspended for PEDs - Alex Sanchez, 6 career home runs and a SLG of .372
Many of the people "caught" were utility players, middle relievers, fringe major leaguers, etc. Quite a few pitchers in the bunch too.
The Marlins should've gotten a mention for worst offseason moves...
I think this one's referring to Ryan Howard's tweet to vote Carlos Ruiz to the All Star game.
"Let's get choice to the allstar. Everyone needs to cot for choice. Let's go, let's go let's go. Vote Carlos Ruiz"
If you text or tweet from your smartphone/iDevice, autocorrect will sometimes suggest words that have completely different meanings than what you are trying to type. For example, if you type "cya" as in "goodbye", it'll autocorrect to "cyanide".
Maybe if we had a degree in robotics, we can bypass the 55 lb requirement.
Regarding the Royals, I told one of my friends who is a huge Royals fan to bet $50 each year for next of the five years that the Royals will be in the playoffs. I think he said Vegas had their odds at 12:1 and they've got to be better than that.
I'm actually qualified for that one but maybe they read my blog post about Matt LaPorta...
I remember, around this time last year, all the buzz surrounding Gary Brown.
-5? Did I step on someone's cat or are people disliking the discussion that much?
I did a double-take at "McBride came back to put up a 2.76 ERA in 153 1/3 innings in the first half" and thought it was a typo. Ah, the days if 300 IP seasons.
Well, isn't WARP also a counting stat so relievers, because they throw less innings, generally have less WARP?
"We do this because changes in performance are more frequent and more dramatic than changes in talent."
I'm going to laminate that quote. And thanks for taking the time to explain all this.
In addition, if Harper isn't appearing to perform as well as last year because he's good but the luck isn't breaking his way in 2013 like it did in 2012, he's more likely to get demoted or benched which has an additional chance of hurting his performance.
So, in my other post, I say:
#1 Players who debut as a teeanger tend get better.
#2 Trout, Griffey and Upton are much different comparables than teenagers who washed out of MLB.
Or, if those assumptions are untrue, does PECOTA just project that all 20 year olds will get worse/have a sophomore slump?
So, what you're saying is my assumptions are untrue and that PECOTA, in general, has skepticism built into it for young players who overperform as teenagers. Thus Year 2 "looks" like a sophomore slump as the loss of performance due to good luck outweighs the Year 2 increase in talent. And, in general, all "young" year 2 players are likely to regress...
If that is correct, how does PECOTA operate differently for minor leaguers?
Nate Silver also said that a decade ago. My understanding is that, back then, PECOTA was a massive spreadsheet of calculations. Colin's heavily revamped it since then (and using SQL?) so that statement might no longer apply...
Sorry, I didn't mean to offend Nick Johnson. I'd apologize to him personally, but he probably strained his ego.
Some day, I'd love to see a rumor scorecard to see how often people like Bowden are on the mark...
That might not have happened if you could edit your comments. Maybe you can talk to someone at BP about it? :)
Which I would buy, except they dug themselves the PR hole in the first place with bad strategy. Whether it's targeting the wrong players or not sticking to a plan for more than half a season, it is their fault for making those strategic decisions. They could've spent that money on something other than a closer, an older pitcher and an injury-riddled shortstop. Or, having chosen to do so, kept with them for more than a year.
That they were able to get some talent in return doesn't excuse the idea that they put themselves in a position where they, at best, thought they weren't a contender and _must_ have a fire sale.
The outliers are always hard to play with. You're in a bit of a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't", kind of like with the Wieters projections.
As for myself, whether Harper is projected to regress or not is a bit of a moot point to me. It's more a question of why. I understand the Y > X argument so I guess the real question is why the regression to the mean is more of an influence than Harper's unusual talent. We don't do the same kind of thing with minor league projections, right? A 18 year old who dominates AA and is supposed to repeat AA isn't projected to regress as a 19 year old, correct? Granted, MLB is different, but we don't chalk up all of the 18 year old's success at AA to luck, right?
I guess, if we were talking about someone like Wil Myers who has talent but isn't considered as unique as Harper, it probably would be a different discussion.
Jordan playing baseball pissed me off. I'm not a basketball fan, but the arrogance with how he approaced baseball upset me.
Early on, he said something to the effect of "I haven't played in awhile so I'll start off slow in AAA" without appreciating there are tons of aspiring minor leaguers who never get to AAA.
He also blamed his lack of success on the gym facilities in Birmingham when he made enough money to build a gym in Chicago and airlift it out to Alabama.
On that note, Gamel (as well as Braun) were third basemen.
Any news on Lohse btw?
Yes they were.. and Ramon was never bad.. perhaps league average if not better, just injury-plagued.
In many ways, the Martinezes reminded me of the Perezes.. the late Pascual, Melido, etc.
But, was he good because of luck or because of skill/talent compared to the "average" 20 year old player?
Closers tend to help with Ks because most closers strike out around a batter and inning and most starting pitchers don't. They may not give you as many Ks, but even a mediocre closer can rack up more Ks per auction dollar spent than a good starter.
I understand there's a baseline forecast and that comparables help to guide it.
I guess the assumptions I am making in my mind are...
#1 Players who debut as a teeanger tend get better.
#2 Trout, Griffey and Upton are much different comparables than teenagers who washed out of MLB.
Or, if those assumptions are untrue, does PECOTA just project that all 20 year olds will get worse/have a sophomore slump?
I guess, as a corrollary, when was the last time PECOTA projected that a player who debuted as a teenager would improve at age 20?
And now that he's in Canada, he'll have to pick up another language so he can understand what people are saying about him.
Hudson, you could sell snakeoil to the devil... or Florida residents a new ballpark. I just hope you don't seriously believe the Marlins are better off.
So... Trout and Griffey are Harper's best comparables. Trout had a great sophomore season and Griffey improved throughout his career, but Harper is going to regress to the mean... whatever the mean of a 20 year old is...
The way the Biogenesis stuff is being reported, especially by ESPN, is fishy. It's like they're releasing a page of "evidence" or a leak a day at a time just to keep the pot stirred.
Might be interesting to see if certain injuries affect certain aspects of pitching performance. For example, do certain types of shoulder injuries lead to worse BB/9 rates, etc.
But we're talking about a guy with an injury history which might affect his 20/20ness and a sub-.250 batting average. Lombardozzi did get 43 starts on the days that Desmond played shortstop. Potentially, one cold streak by Desmond could force the issue or a promotion for Rendon.
It'd be interesting to see how the first ten picks of each draft were budgeted and compared to the rest of the draft. i.e. are there some positions that tend to get more expensive (like closers?) as the options are reduced?
P.S. Jeff Ma... curse you for killing ProTrade.
What I like about Ross is how few home runs he gives up in addition to his good control/command profile.
Right, but finding or making a first baseman should be easier than finding a third baseman. Case-in-point Scott Hatteberg.
Remember, the A's went into last year with Josh Donaldson moving from catcher to 3B and he didn't hit a lick early on, hence the Inge experiment. The A's will probably do some other kind of stopgap and, if it doesn't work, troll the waiver wire.
Still, don't you have to take a starter like Kendrick over someone without a spot (Profar) and someone with an injury and multiple challengers (Espinosa)?
"The club once traded the most productive offensive outfield in the National League—Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady"
Those were different circumstances. Only Bay, though injured, was a star and the Pirates had no minor league depth and little major league talent. They only had one starter (Maholm) with an ERA less than 4.50(!). Nady and Bay were also turning 30 and there were doubts McLouth could repeat his performance (which he never did). Also, if I remember right, the new ownership just came in. Why not trade parts, especially people like Nady, at the top of their value, to rebuild?
Heck for those 9 total injuries, he missed a total of 10 games with day-to-day injuries. In 2011, he missed 15 games, 14 to the DL. One game in 2010, 17 in 2009. We're not talking Nick Johnson here.
Bleck. I like Fowler.. and on top of that, the reason he never gets 500 AB is the Rockies keep demoting him to the minors and/or benching him for a one week slump just like they did with Tulowitzki, Iannetta, Rosario, etc.
This rocked for me last year. As an aside, I also had Tim Collins on my Scoresheet team ;)
Didn't protect him as a keeper though...
The ringer was easier for me to pick out because it had a different kind of blue highlight :)
My favorite baseball-themed father-dad scene in a movie is from Frequency where Dennis Quaid and John Cavaziel catch up, talking about the World Series, the McGwire/Sosa home run chase etc.
On that note, I think 61* is an underrated baseball movie and one of my personal favorites.
Wouldn't the 160 innings agreement have come up in a conversations between the Nationals and Zimmerman's agent? I'd hope (though I wouldn't know) that there'd be a gentleman's agreement not to use it against the player in arbitration.
Until last year, I always used the comps. If I saw a player compared to Alfonso Soriano (or, previously, Andre Dawson), I had a good idea what kind of hitter they'd be.
Last time I did, I split the last two down the middle.
Still, if you wanted a way to group players based on some psychological traits, that might be one way to do it.
How did the Astros moving to the AL affect the expected wins for the AL and NL teams?
Can players and/or clubs use a planned change of positions in their arbitration argument? What prevents a club from saying "Joe might be worth $5 million, but next year, he'll be in our bullpen so he should be paid less."
Ya know, that might be an interesting way to measure it. Many people in high school take things like the Myers-Briggs Personality tests. It'd be interesting to see if there are correlations between athletes personalty types and performance.
Wouldnt his comps be pretty limited just because you don't run into many outfielders that young?
Do you really need to survey major league teams? Can't you glean some directional data from high school, college and minor league teams?
Chemistry's a bit like defense. We're sure it exists, just not sure how to precisely measure it.
I think Dickey's going to be a bit like Ichiro.. just that weird type of player with no real comparables that PECOTA has problems projecting.
First you misread my post and assumed I agreed with you.
Then you started insulting me.
And you're still hung up on something that happened 15 years ago. Heck I'm a Cubs fan and realize that the Cubs current situation isn't directly related to Greg Maddux being let go before his Cy Young situation.
All in all, you lack understanding and seem to want to pick a fight. So, I'll prefer to be a fungus and stop talking to you on this thread.
Silly stupid question. Now that we have all these pitch F/X charts showing hitters hot zones etc, does PECOTA incorporate any of that into their projections and how it relates to the pitchers in the league? For example, does it recalculate projections for hitters in the NL West because Greinke joined the division, etc.
It's interesting that all these contracts (Napoli, Liriano,Felix, etc) have been changing due to injuries. I can't recall when so many have been handled like that before.
I bring them up because they were fan favorites and losing them did hurt the fan base. Only having two winning seasons in the last nine years (2004-2012) hasn't helped.
I thought about Dan Wilson, but I'm pretty sure if I had added him, you would've laughed at that. Heck I'm pretty sure there are a few Gil Meche or Carlos Guillen fans but I didn't include them either.
And yes, I know a bit about the Mariners. I used to live in Oregon which gets Seattle broadcasts, been to Safeco a few times (and even attended a get-together there with Jonah Keri, Rob Neyer, Derek Zumsteg and a few others) and read the USS Mariner. I wouldn't call myself a Mariners expert, especially since I moved to Denver in 2008, but they're in the Top 10 of teams I'm familiar with.
And btw, there's always the chance that Felix gets traded so he may end up winning a World Series for someone else.
But, again, to sum up:
1. Randy's situation wasn't the same as Felix's
2. There've been more important and more recent things than have affected the Mariners' fan base since Randy's departure fifteen years ago.
3. As a Mariners' fan, you should know #1 and #2. If not, I suggest you use baseball-reference instead of Wikipedia.
"but because of Randy this fan base needed this Felix deal."
Since Randy left the Mariners in 1998, the Mariners have lost:
Ken Griffey Jr (twice)
I'm pretty sure Mariner fans have things more recent than Randy Johnson's departure to be sad about.
In some dictionaries, gel means jell.
Definition of GEL
: to change into or take on the form of a gel : set
: jell 2
— gel·able adjective
Examples of GEL
The mixture will gel as it cools.
Our plans are finally starting to gel.
I don't really like the way the Angels have yanked Bourjols around. If you take Trout out of the equation, the Angels have a bad history at developing anything other than pitching and middle infielders.
Maybe he's improved. Crack out the stopwatches and time him again?
And again :)
Um, you just said you're glad they're not repeating the same mistake. You said they let Johnson go nine years too early. I was highly disagreeing with your point that Johnson and Felix's situation were the same.
Randy Johnson was 33 at the time and Felix is 26. Completely different situations regarding risk.
And the Mariners did get good trade value for him (Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama).
I think the funny faces gif was Ryan Theriot's impression of Malcolm Reynolds.
Out of curiosity, are there any studies that show that pitchers who throw a lot of innings in pitcher's parks tend to remain healthier than pitchers who throw in non-pitchers parks?
I mean, sure Felix throws a lot of innings, but it's not like he's racking up 140+ pitch count games with the bases loaded in Coors Field, right?
He also challenged Shea Hillenbrand to a fight.
And the tunnel from the dugout...
Good point. Though I still think Pujols and Hamilton will get along splendidly.
If you're referring to my comment, I didn't mean to say MLB was falsifying PEDs. I'm saying I'm not sure yet whether I believe the Miami newspaper's report and/or how it has interpreted the "evidence".
From what I understand, players and clubs prefer a midpoint if possible just because the arbitration hearings can lead to bad feelings.
I believe Hamilton and Pujols will actually get along immensely. They are both devoutly passionate Christians and I could see Pujols taking Hamilton under his wing and providing extra support to keep him sober.
Well, I think of a blooper as more of an arcing pop fly that just happened to land in a place where people aren't... kind of like the last gif. The first gif was more of a line drive.
Is the first gif really that much of a blooper? Looks like a pretty standard Texas Leaguer.
I'm talking the Comcast SportsNet one.
I'm not sure how much I'm buying this Miami clinic. Cabrera was already caught and loses nothing to confessing more, yet doesn't. Apparently the Miami paper that broke the story is being evasive about handing a copy of their evidence over to MLB.
And, yet again, spring training is about to start and a magical PED story breaks right before it just as it has every year for the last 5+ years...
As an aside, I also find it interesting that they didn't have to explain what Baseball Prospectus is.
You know the video's good when it has an ad in front of it.
I can imagine the defense too.
"Your honor, I had already responded on Twitter and I was limited to 140 characters."
Um.. if he corked his bat to make it look like he is a better hitter, it is a reasonable possibility that he might've done other things to cheat. Besides, if his brother lied about/forged his age, that means Wilton was probably aware of the idea and how to do it. So yes, they do have to do with each other.
We're also talking about a player who corked his bat... so its possible he also lied about his age.
I'm glad it came back. I read it weekly.
If you're going to Tweet your innocence, why pay for agents and lawyers?
Basically, for a mid 90s comparison, it's like saying Pedro Martinez is an ace and Tom Glavine's a #2.
Except Strasburg didn't have the heavy workloads or the traumatic collisions and still needed Tommy John...
I thought WAR was supposed to normalize between league difficulty differences.
According to BP, Andrus is worth 0.5 wins more. Now, Andrus may have more potential value for doing what he did at a younger age and at a "skill position", but if we're using BP WAR as a metric, the actual value difference is just 0.5, not 0.5 + potential. Perceived or forecasted value may be 0.5 + potential, but not the actual value.
All things considered, though, it's also a little early to do entire career comparisons based on just four seasons.
Goofy? You could go to any year of any draft and find an All-Star that was drafted before a Hall of Famer. Similarly, you could find a solid major leaguer who was drafted after a bunch of busted prospects. That doesn't mean that All Star or that solid major leaguer wasn't underrated.
Part of the issue just might be that there are more pitchers than starting shortstops. Andrus gets compared to just 29 other players. Cain gets compared to 150 pitchers. For many teams, I'd think Cain would be the ace. Lincecum's 2013 hiccup aside, Cain's usually the #2 to Lincecum.
*mumbles to himself*
Heck, if we use WAR, I don't think Cain even breaks the top 25 for 2012. Maybe my perception of him is just better because of his low ERA and WHIP in a pitcher's park. Though I wonder why my eyes aren't as rosy for Andrus in a hitter's park... so maybe I'm overvaluing Cain in general when studs like Kyle Lohse out-WARP him...
Anyway, I do agree with your last paragraph. #2 isn't a knock.
How dare you mention Kotchman and Lee in the same paragraph in a positive light! A pox on your spreadsheet!
Whenever is someone is compared to Stephen Strasburg, I compare them to Mark Prior, then I expect the Tommy John surgery and get scared.
Hey Andrus is definitely a positive asset. However, if we play the WARP game, the difference between Andrus and Cain is 0.5 WARP over the last four years in Andrus's favor. He's also had a declining FRAA FWIW. I'm just saying Andrus isn't clearly better than Cain and it may come down to a matter of taste.
Because WAR counts defense and defense can be all over the map.
Well, based on that list, I'd still take Cain over half of them especially considering some of their durability issues. As an aside, I'd take Braun, McCutchen and Fielder easily before Cain. Hamles and Cain is almost a wash.
Now, Cain might not have the Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez low WHIP, insane K/9 type of numbers... But he's been very durable for quite a few years with a high level of performance.
The moral of the story is that, in reference to Shelby Miller, being projected as a #2 is not a death sentence.
Some statheads are still waiting for Roberto Petagine to get a starting gig.
Underrated as both a prospect and as a major leaguer.
Just means the votes don't matter too much.
Might be interesting some day to see an article on which organizations do best at finding talent, which do best at developing pitchers, hitters, fielders, etc. Perhaps identify the kinds of things they do. For example, what do the Braves do that helps them continually churn out pitching prospects that usually perform around league average and are durable?
For a long time, people thought Matt Cain was also a number 2. He was underrated for a very long time.
People thought Leo Mazzone was a Hall of Famer until he left Bobby Cox.
I think Brett Jackson's walk rate will also help offset his strikeouts.
Besides Matt Adams, isn't Kolten Wong considered close? Wouldn't be the first time the Cardinals promoted someone from AA.
Whenever I see multiple grades, I always think of Out of the Park :)
Thanks for the reply.
Nick Johnson was never bad so it's not like he was a forecasting bust or didn't produce. He was just horrible at staying healthy. As the BP Annual said in 2010 about Nick, staying healthy is also a skill/tool.
I'm surprised an 8 fastball has to do with velocity and not with control or command. Shouldn't it also have something to do with movement?
I thought the implication from the tool greades BP gives in their minor league reviews when looking at curveballs and changeups implies not just velocity, but movement, control and command.
... and a truckful of New Coke to kids in the suburbs to encourage them not to drink soda.
Along the vein of the Shelley Duncan Stand Up to Cancer, there should be a donation to stop sexual assault/trafficking for each inning R.A. Dickey pitches.
Very well said.
Not sure why you didn't reply in-line. I just remember past years where people were griping that 85% wasn't good enough. There'd be a bunch of people saying "What about the 'Deadly Accurate'-ness of PECOTA?" Then there's griping about player comments, FRAA, comparables, PECOTA, etc (some of the griping, I'll admit, I am guilty of).
Personally, I'm pretty happy with how the winter has gone. Generally, BP goes quiet after the Winter meetings to focus on the Annual, maybe posting two or three articles a day. There's been a ton of good winter content. I think it's worth a try to wait for PECOTA to be as accurate as possible. As you yourself say, many teams fine tune their preparations in late February or early March and we're not even into early February yet.
I kept reading it as "Carlos Lee" as well.
If you care more about timing than precision, why go to a statistician site?
In fact, I'll call it now. Rosario will bat .200 in April (though with fine power numbers) and will get benched and then demoted by June for a month or two, just like Iannetta, Fowler, Tulowitzki, etc.
There go the Rockies in their perpetual attempt to bench rookie catchers...
Yep I know. Usually the PECOTA in the Annual is revised once the depth charts come out.
Has the logic on the comparable players improved?
The team should probably be aware... but according to their pitch f/x hit charts and TAv, they have different hot zones/swings. BJ tends to do better on anything over the plate, in, or low. Justin's better with high strikes. Even with whiff rate, Justin appears to have better plate coverage than BJ since BJ tends to swing and miss on high pitches more often.
Outfielders tend to do more running than first basemen too...
The basic idea I was trying to convey was that the Cleveland Indians were called the Indians before India existed as a country.
India as a country didn't really exist until 1947. India had a history of forming up from individual kingdoms, then being conquered/controlled by one power or another (Persians, English, etc) and broken up again.
Ironically, the Cleveland Indians have had their nickname for longer than India's been an official country ;)
As I recall from last year, PECOTA in the Annual didn't match the PECOTA that was released on the spreadsheet. Then, the spreadsheet had to get adjusted later because there were issues with relievers and depth charts in general.. so the "correct" PECOTA wasn't really finalized until early/mid February.
The Chicago Bears should be renamed because, from what I understand, they aren't all gay players.
If you're offended by a single article, I suggest you read the title of the article before clicking on it next time...wasn't it pretty evident what this post was about just from the title?
You must've missed "Talk Like a Pirate" day. They're around. Of course, it's hard to understand what they say so it's hard to tell if they are offended or not.
I'm surprised the umpire can even hear that much considering that the crowd starts yelling like crazy once a manager starts arguing with an umpire.
Remember the flak I got when I did it for BP Idol?
I'm not sure how similar their hitting styles are, but as a bit of an analogy, left handed hitters still get hits off of left handed pitchers. Pitchers still have to execute pitches and even if a pitcher knows where the hole in Upton's swing is, they still have to get the pitch there.
I prefer "better". The last few years have been problematic. Besides, even with the early releases, they were usually rereleased within a few weeks anyway.
A very nice write up. That three hour conversation and then the continuation at the signing sounds like it was fascinating.
Wonder which managers tended to swear the most.
Transcribing speech is a pain.
The thing about Gordon is that, even when he was bad offensively, he still maintained a good walk and strikeout rate. Young doesn't really have any more secondary skills besides middling power.
The Cubs rumors were funny and didn't seem all that huge.
Theo: Hey Kevin, got the note from my secretary that you called me. So you want to trade Upton?
Kevin: Yes. I want Starlin Castro.
Nine Jose Oquendos wouldn't be that bad, at least from a positional flexibility standpoint
In hindsight, what an interesting draft with some people already flamed out and others already stars.
"OK Mark, don't tell me you didn't see the pitch because Buck saw it. And Buck, don't tell me you didn't hear the pitch because Mark heard it. So, since one of you saw it and one of you heard it, between the two of you, you shouldn't have struck out!"
- In the spirit of "See No Evil, Hear No Evil" with Richard Pryor and Gene Wilder.
It's probably Zdurineck's last gasp. If the Mariners don't turn it around, he won't be around come 2014. That's why you had that crazy Upton proposal.
Reposting probably doesn't help.. besides, most people know that when a thread gets enough minuses to be minimized, it tends to stand out and get more attention.
The first time is supposed to be special but I think twitter is turning you into a slut.
Overall numbers, Victor would probably do better but Gardner's more of a wild card factor since he hasnt had as much consistent playing time.
You get disqualified from the award after ten nominations.
David Schoenfield said there was a tweet that Soriano has the third lowest WHIP among pitchers who threw at least 500 innings since 1920. Not sure if that's true, though I did find Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner with lower WHIPs.
And yeah, I know about the membership numbers :)
I'm still not sure why they replaced the dugout phones with cellphones. Wouldn't a tablet with a camera make more sense so that managers could see warmup status etc?
andrews, I'm not sure how long you've been with BP, but I do know I've commented thousands of times more than you have and I often dissent. I even posted once during BP Idol whether people wanted me to stop commenting just because I was posting so much. I've vehemently disagreed with authors, points of view, and in the past, complained publicly about where BP seemed to be headed. Never was I asked to cancel my subscription. There are room for dissenters, you aren't the first, and definitely won't be the last.
That being said, don't confuse people saying "slow down!" with people disagreeing with your view. You've started up a lot of posts within this thread and you haven't always replied in line. It is hard to follow what you are saying since one thought will be in one thread, then continued in another thread. If anything, people aren't objecting to your views as much as they are objecting with the way you've gone about it. So, feel free to dissent, but try to be more concise about it.
I wouldn't call what andrews said as repetitive or, worse, spam. He did spend time typing up his thoughts and it's not like he copied and pasted the same text over and over again.
Besides, getting minused constantly adds to the frustration and prompts more posting. andrews really hasn't said anything "worse" than anyone else has said.
If you are suggesting he gets muted or his subscription gets cancelled, I think that sets a dangerous precedent.
That being said, both things you listed are problems and both appear to be resolved as of now... perhaps everyone even learned a bit from it.
His job isn't to report the news but to provide entertainment.
Don't confuse my perceptions with the perceptions of the members of the BBWAA. I'm saying, if the writers vote on character and their vote is "locked in", then there's a chance they may feel wronged if something leaks out later. Note that a lot of the argument for Kirby Puckett had to do with his character.
Also, yeah, I saw "Cobb" but there are arguments that most of it was made up by Al Stump. Some argue he wasn't racist and that the media only portrayed him as racist after he died.
The Mariners were sure going to give up a lot. Then again, I can understand why Upton would reject the trade since his numbers would probably suffer in Safeco.
Locking a vote sounds neat, but I can picture it causing problems. Let's say I voted for a guy the first year he was eligible and, a few years down, it's revealed he took steroids or beat his wife or something. I wouldn't be able to change my vote?
Isn't that kind of why they have people on the ballot for 15 years, to allow writers to evaluate them?
I'll just be selfish and say I'm glad Andre Dawson got in before this mess began.
It's always the quiet ones.
Five years wasn't enough time to get past the emotional bias of the steroid era.
These are not the voters you are looking for.
I just read 1 "new" comment that was nothing but whining. :)
I don't predict when the gun will fire until PECOTA comes out, by law.
Writers will do it on occasion for someone who they considered were a class act, who made themselves available for interviews, etc. It's just a token acknowldgement of their career. I don't have a problem with it.
Doesn't seem like many BBWAA writers are aware of what goes on besides their local paper. I doubt sabremetrics matters to most of them.
If sabremetrics is really affecting things and hurting Morris, it should have helped Lofton and David Wells to more than 5% of the vote.
Well, it's more evidence than no one saying it... not saying I believe Pearlmen or "know" Piazza did steroids, just trying to give amazin a link he asked for.
Jeff Pearlmen wrote about it in his book on Roger Clemens.
"The portions about Piazza have received the most press leading up to the book’s release, March 24. Deadspin first published excerpts about Piazza.
As the hundreds of major league ballplayers who turned to performance-enhancing drugs throughout the 1990s did their absolute best to keep the media at arm's length, Piazza took the opposite approach. According to several sources, when the subject of performance enhancing was broached with reporters he especially trusted, Piazza fessed up. "Sure, I use," he told one. "But in limited doses, and not all that often." (Piazza has denied using performance-enhancing drugs, but there has always been speculation.) Whether or not it was Piazza's intent, the tactic was brilliant: By letting the media know, of the record, Piazza made the information that much harder to report. Writers saw his bulging muscles, his acne-covered back. They certainly heard the under-the-breath comments from other major league players, some who considered Piazza's success to be 100 percent chemically delivered.
At least two former Major League players, one being Reggie Jefferson (another was not named), were quoted as saying they were sure that Piazza used steroids.
"He's a guy who did it, and everybody knows it," says Reggie Jefferson, the longtime major league first baseman. "It's amazing how all these names, like Roger Clemens, are brought up, yet Mike Piazza goes untouched."
"There was nothing more obvious than Mike on steroids," says another major league veteran who played against Piazza for years. "Everyone talked about it, everyone knew it. Guys on my team, guys on the Mets. A lot of us came up playing against Mike, so we knew what he looked like back in the day. Frankly, he sucked on the field. Just sucked. After his body changed, he was entirely different. 'Power from nowhere,' we called it."
When asked, on a scale of 1 to 10, to grade the odds that Piazza had used performance enhancers, the player doesn't pause.
"A 12," he says. "Maybe a 13."
I didn't do it. Thought about trying once but I thought it would make me cranky.
Has a thread ever been shut down, out of curiosity?
Pick someone who spent most of their career in the Negro Leagues, for starters and didn't get a single vote because of the color barrier.
Pick a racist who did get a vote.
Pick someone who beat their wife or cheated on their wife.
Or hey, if you want to stick to on-field performance, check out people like Tommy Thevenow or Moe Berg.
Check out the link below.
We don't make predictions until PECOTA comes out, by law.
Then we predict how long it'll take depth charts to come out.
Nice to see you bought yourself a copy since nothing you said is all that original.
On the subject of other snubs... If Jack Morris is getting so much support, David Wells should've gotten more than 5 votes.
Most youngsters don't care about baseball.
Even more don't care about the Hall of Fame.
Even more still cheat on their spelling tests.
Um, of all the courtesy votes and non-votes the BBWAA have done in the 36 years I've been alive, Aaron Sele is nowhere near the worst vote/nonvote.
Ironic that Canseco gets blackballed for steroids and, a decade later, Lofton gets overlooked because of steroids.
snibirsh rears its minushead once again.
While we're on the subject of PEDs, I find it interesting how McGwire has lingered around while Canseco was pretty quickly blackballed from the voting.
My favorite HOF candidate memory, in Baseball Prospectus context, was when Julio Franco had "Galapagos Turtle" as one of his comparables in a BP Annual.
Enjoyed the Lofton tribute. I also always had a bit of a special place for David Wells. He was a mainstay on my fantasy team for years and I always liked him as a player (and even, at times, as a person).
Its a bit of a crock anyway. Many of the voting writers now "banning" PED users from the Hall of Fame made their living writing about how the home run chase was great for baseball, sometimes even turning a blind eye to actually reporting on PEDs. Heck, the "Chicks Dig the Long Ball" commercial even had a creatine scene in there so it's not like people weren't thinking about PEDs.
HIs career might also be summed up as racking up the most frequent flyer mileage while on the disabled list.
I think no one will get in this year. The voters not voting for PED users will deny Bonds/Clemens and others like Biggio etc probably aren't famous enough for the casual BBWAA voter to even remember.
2014 will be real interesting too with a lot of good players who were not attached to PEDs (Thomas, Maddux, Glavine) etc. up for election with a lot of holdovers gumming up the ballot.
PED stands for Performance Enhancing Drug.. all PEDs affect performance including amphetamines. In addition, some things not labeled PEDs or are even called drugs can enhance performance such as caffeine, energy drinks, vitamins, etc.
Well, it's posted now.
Usually ESPN posts a webpage before the results saying who among their staff voted for who but this year they didn't.
It is a very nice park unless you're a cigarette smoker. Good variety of food too. They also do a fireworks show on Fourth of July weekend and on the last homestand of the year which is awesome and they allow the fans on the field to lay on the grass and watch it.
Oh and that event in 2007 just had BP writers, no one from the Rockies office. The BP Annual had just released though, so maybe it was just a book tour. I do remember the event had a podcast too.
I'd feel confident I could get 10-15 that I know, but 50 by myself might be optimistic unless I resorted to random Facebook and Craigslist posts. Can you post a thread here to see if there is any interest?
Btw that past event had Dan Fox, Christina Kahrl and Nate Silver.
I know the last event was in 2007 at the Tattered Cover. I think there was about 30 people. I'm not sure how many Colorado people are still subscribed to BP. How big is the minimum?
Actually, it probably would've made the cut two years ago because John was one of the managing editors then.
Nonetheless, I don't think there's wrong with posting a wider variety of viewpoints and content type. BP didn't used to have much minor league information, didn't have much in the way of "humor articles", rarely interviewed people in baseball etc. And yes, they still hav a lot of statistics and sabremetrics too. If you don't like the article, it's fine if you choose not to read it.. but don't say it shouldn't be published and/or wouldn't make the cut just because it doesn't fit your personal idea of what the BP brand should be.
What is OPB?
Come to Denver, please? :)
Btw there's no reason for this comment to receive so many negatives. It's not like he was telling people to step on kittens...
And the Marlins would also want the Rays Touch Tank.
Funny, I thought your Mariners suggestion was incredibly overpriced.
Heh, know the feeling
You still use monitors?
Rockies: Dexter Fowler and cash.. because the Marlins, you know, want cash... and the Rockies, you know, still don't think Fowler is good.
Anyone want to place bets (or arguments) on which team uses statistical analysis the least/worst?
Heh I used to work for a for-profit career college and accreditation was never something to joke about. You could even get fired for implying a program had accreditation that it didn't have.
Eh well, you wouldn't be the first to remember things about me ;) On the flipside, I did say I was commenting from work and offered to hop on ProQuest once I got home.
"which sounds like a completely legitimate and accredited academic institution"
Um, except it's not.. it's just a person's blog.
Remember when Game Winning RBI was en vogue?
Fantasy baseball is one way I connect with players who aren't Cubs or Rockies. I always like Darryl Kile who was a stalwart in my rotations and when he passed away, I kept him on my roster, taking up an active slot, to honor him.
Was that the same as a candlelight vigil or donating to a charity in his name? No. But it did show to the rest of the league I was thinking of him and was willing to play a "less than optimal" roster to do so.
I think the Rangers deserve to step back with how casual Washington was about not caring about winning the All-Star game and the way the fans were ripping into Hamilton. Sure, Hamilton's a project but Rangers fans/players(Young)/management seem to be a bit spoiled and feel entitled of late.
Only if you have time available to interview yourself :)
"Wait till next year." - The Cubs fans' lament
Is Denver in the works?
The moral of the story might be that Dickey is somewhat likely to at least maintain his 2010-2012 ability since pitchers of his type that peak later tend to keep it up in their late 30s.
Billy Beane was considered smart, then the A's didn't win for a long time once they traded Hudson/Zito/Mulder away. Now, he's considered smart again.
I think Polanco is a half year stopgap.
Also, I think getting AJ for just a one year deal is a steal and I'm not sure why his agent would've allowed him to sign for such a short term commitment after a career year.
DiPoto said Bourjos would start last year. I should know, he was on my fantasy team. Bourjos finished April with only 53 plate appearances.
Whether there's "no justifiable reason to start Wells", the fact remains Wells played more than Bourjos last year and it had nothing to do with a Bourjos injury or some such. Despite what the stats say and the defense suggests, Bourjos was given less playing time than Wells (in addition to Hunter, Trumbo and of course, Trout).
P.S. I prefer the second lineup.
"He'll eat innings and he'll get ground balls. "
Vargas is a flyball pitcher.
I'm still uncertain Bourjols will get much playing time considering even Vernon Wells got more AB than him in 2012.
Small sample, but interesting that Dickey and knuckleballers in general peak at 35 and maintain through their early 40s.
9. A fantasy baseball subscription.
Also, at the salary the Jays are paying Dickey, he doesn't have to be an All Star. And, all things considered, they do have a young catcher in Arencibia who is competent enough.
The real comparable is probably the Halladay trade from the Jays to the Phillies which, ironically enough, involved d'Arnaud.
On ESPN, Dickey's theory is that the Mets were waiting for the other free agent pitchers like Grienke etc to sign so that Dickey's price would be driven up.
"As for the slow pace of negotiations with the Mets, Dickey suspects team officials purposely dragged things out until front-line free-agent pitchers began to come off the board. That strategy figured to increase the interest in Dickey among teams desperate for starting pitching.
"I think, just as a logical person, it made sense that they were going slowly to try to see what was out there," Dickey said. "And I can certainly understand that. It may not have not lined up with my timing, which is perfectly OK."
It's the same amount he asked the Mets for, I believe.
It happens. Every so often there are a few people who come out of the woodwork and, without saying anything, minus every comment I make for a few weeks. I usually ignore the +/- ratings I get and usually the minus bats go away after awhile.
Besides, I've typed paragraphs, including statistics and links and done research and remained at 0. Someone says "Nice article." in about that many words and gets +10. I say "I don't like beer" and I get -10.
Peyton Manning got 80,000 people to stop doing the wave at a Broncos game, so anything's possible if the fans like you.
No, not constantly. Just so happens that quite a few trades lately affected the one fantasy team I have. Also, there are at least two other people who regularly comment on BP who are in the same fantasy league and with how slow the offseason is in general, it's nice to have something additional to chat about.
Besides, I do a lot of non-fantasy comments too ;)
I'm glad the Jays are making good, quality moves to be competitive in the AL East.
I am not glad they keep trading my rookie keepers to the NL. I've now blown well past my 2 crossover limit :/
Chuck Knoblauch's an interesting guy to follow. Jose Canseco can be pretty entertaining too.
Thanks for the breakdown.
Actually, I was asking what factors there were for Trout to win besides WAR(P). You were the one who listed defense, baserunning, etc which were already included inside of WAR(P).
And btw I do think Trout was the MVP, just asking a rhetorical question about why people should use WAR/WARP as a rationale for MVP voting if the metrics disagree or have a wide variance, especially on some players like Torii Hunter.
Similar to Hideki Matsui, they'll probably make at least half of the contract back through Japanese marketing.
As I recall, most of the argument was based on Trout's WAR vs Cabrera's Triple Crown on a playoff team.
Defense and the various components of OBP and OPS such as hits, walks, home runs etc are in WAR and WARP. I think the only thing not in there is baserunning. That's why I say "such as?" since WAR/WARP are already including the offensive and defensive components.
Entertainment. Which BP provides in spades.
"This winter, the Giants re-signed Pagan and now have inked Torres to a four-year deal."
Pagan was inked to a four year deal.
Because WARP is a BP metric and the other metrics aren't BP.
Only non-latino MLB player... there were a few minor league players who were non-latino.
+1 just because it's rare to see CNN board-style commentary on here. I'll also give a +1 to anyone that ties WARP to Romney's Five Point Plan.
You know what the Hanley picture reminds me of?
"Once again, the L.A.P.D. is asking Los Angelenos not to fire their guns at the visitor spacecraft. You may inadvertently trigger an interstellar war." - Independence Day
As far as pathos go, I can imagine Hanley being one of the leisurely marksmen.
It's just amazing how far the Pirates system has come. Hopefully the Pirates will pull off that elusive winning season this year. Huntington's done a lot of great work, even with the initial criticism of blowing up the early major league roster, and it would be nice for him to get some of the kudos that he has earned.
Magic's not exactly the majority owner of the Dodgers, more like the face of the group.
In order to project what talent can do, you need to look at what they have done last year.
Those pictures are frigging hilarious. I think Grienke or Ramirez are my favorite ones.
Hey, at least the Angels are trying to win unlike some teams...
With WAR calculations all over the place, is there a real reason to be upset that Trout didn't win the MVP?
Trying to wrap my head around this. David Schoenfield said on his ESPN SweetSpot blog that, based on baseball-reference's WAR, Torii Hunter in 2012 was more valuable than Josh Hamilton (5.5 to 3.4 WAR). FanGraphs at 5.3 to 4.4. BP has the WARP at 3.9 for Hamilton vs 3.3 for Hunter. What am I missing here?
You actually notice a -1? :)
I agree with you. My cable bill goes up because of all those darned Laker games.
That's why I said it's a minor part. Generally, a GM wants to keep cordial relationships with the other GMs. However, it's definitely not the "whole point".
Nice to know that a decade later, I still get a bit of value out of working at a Nike customer service call center :)
I thought Ken Griffey Jr. retired...
Perspiration-control fabrics, six-finger gloves and removable spikes are in use today. In fact, you can screw and unscrew certain kinds of spikes depending on the kind of field/turf you're playing on and the position you're playing... not just in baseball, but football, soccer, etc. There are also some gloves with see-through mesh for webbing.
As a side note, one reason KC might get a lot of flak is a lot of prominent sabremetricians/sabremetricly-inclined writers have the Royals as their favorite team. Go back to Rob (Neyer) and Rany (Janzyaerli) on the Royals, Joe Posanski, etc. I'm not sure who Law's favorite team is, but as a BP alumni, I'm sure he read Rob/Rany/Joe pretty frequently.
But, over a half of season of at bats, is the difference in OBP between Youkilis and Chavez really worth 8 millionish?
The Royals have done some pretty bad trades, but the Cabrera trade only looks bad in hindsight because, at the time, people thought Cabrera's value had peaked and Sanchez had a very good chance of rebounding.
Also, Moore did pick up Cabrera for cheap and should get some credit for that.
"That's the whole point of trading, not to fleece the other guy"
Actually, that's not the whole point of trading. The whole point of trading is to get value/fill needs. Whether the other guy is fleeced is, at best, a very minor part of trading.
And that's basically why baseball is fun to talk about. People predict and project, go with their gut or go with stats and in the end, people will be right and others will be wrong with no real certainty that those who were right will remain right. For all we think we know about baseball, it just turns things into a lesser crapshoot than a coinflip.
I can't help but wonder why the Yankees paid so much for Youkilis when they could've retained Chavez for cheaper... besides, A-Rod's only supposed to be out for a few months so Chavez seems a better fit as a stopgap.
Just because the Royals expect him to be more than a 3 WARP pitcher doesn't mean he will be.. that's why we have statistics and projections.
Ok here's another semi-silly hypothetical question...
Is this a trade that Dayton could've/should've done in June/July?
By then, it should be clearer whether the Royals are pretenders or contenders and a better idea of the quality of their lineup and pitching. There's a decent chance that Shields would be cheaper since there wouldn't be as much time left on his contract and if the Rays aren't in contention, they may be more apt to deal him at a discount. This kind of mindset would be similar to the Pirates acquiring Wandy Rodriguez et all at the break.
The Royals take on a ton of risk since the Royals paid, in terms of prospects, on the gamble that Wade Davis makes a successful conversion to starter. Beyond that, for the trade to be a success, James Shields has to remain a successful starter _and_ the Royals have enough other things go right to change from a 70 win team to a 90+ win team. Not many teams go from 70 wins to 90+ wins in one season. That's a huge amount of risk and the Royals are paying for that privilege.
I think it was Nate Silver who wrote a long time ago on BP about marginal wins. Basically, if you're an 85 win team, 5 wins matters much more to you than if you are a 70 win team because those 5 wins can put the 70 win team into the playoffs.
Have the Royals really made enough changes to leapfrog the White Sox and Tigers for the AL Central lead? Was it worth the risk based on Myers' potential? Could the Royals have acquired starting pitching another way, either through free agency or through a less expensive trade in terms of rookies?
Because that's basically what a prospect is, that $4 million coin flip (though some prospects and coin flips are worth more than others). And, as noted, people who look at things long-term like Warren Buffett or the Rays, tend to go for the long-term coin flips. Sure, the Rays get their Brignacs but they also get their Longorias and Prices.
Given the Royals performance over Moore's tenure, do they warrant the benefit of the doubt?
This is a sport where, if you stay at the plate a second too long after hitting a home run, you're characterized as a guy who shows people up. Wait till something real controversial like the first openly gay player hits the majors...
Myers + something for Shields would've probably received less flak.
Unfortunately, I can't value Marquis that highly because of the ex-Cub factor. So he'd be a lesser Earl.
If that was really the case, DM would've kept Myers as a catcher.
Gordon, Perez, Moose and Hosmer have all had a few warts.. and don't forget Butler in there too. Generally a rookie will have a sophomore slump or something but Butler's power disappeared for 2010/2011 and Gordon's bat completely disappeared for 2009/2010. Gordon even regressed a bit from 2011. Not to mention pretty much every Royals rookie pitcher has flamed out...
As an aside, there's also been no real good explanation on why Myers didn't get some major league at bats last year. Did they lack confidence in him? Wanted him to work on defense? I'm not sure if there's another GM who wouldn't have given him a September cup of coffee.
The Rays have a good history of replacing major league pitchers with minor league ones, usually before their value starts to tank like Kazmir. Sure, Shields and Davis are solid major leaguers, but just last year, they moved Davis to the bullpen and were going to move Niemann because of Moore, Archer, etc.
I like that tie in to the Young trade and hadn't thought of it that way.
Name a team that doesn't get older.
As far as "continuing the way they have", they no longer trade prospects for middling veterans the way they did in the 80s. They've put a lot of emphasis on the farm system and for all the "Evil Empire" talk, a good chunk of their roster is homegrown (Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, Cano, Gardner, Hughes, etc.) No, they don't have a farm system like the Rays but their organization isn't in complete disarray like the Red Sox are either.
The majority of the risk is with the Rays, but Myers has a very high floor which helps to mitigate that risk. Also, perhaps this trade frees up some free agent dollars for the Rays to make another move via free agency.
And yes, I do agree that getting someone like Dempster and swapping Franceour for Myers would've been better.
The Yankees had the best record in the AL last season and they're on the decline just because they didn't resign Martin or Chavez?
On the flipside, Myers is supposed to be ready next year and the Rays scored the least runs in the AL East while preventing the least runs in the AL East.. i.e. they needed to improve their offense and had some run prevention to spare.
What if Shields gets hurt since he's on the wrong side of 30? What if Davis can't convert back to the rotation? You can play these "what if" games with both sides...
Besides, I understand that social anxiety disorder and antisocial behavior are two different things but it is disingenuous to say that it is impossible to have both.
Just to put this joke to bed, I'll rephrase it.
"Maybe the only reason Greinke developed was that his social anxiety disorder interfered with his ability to interact with bad Royals coaches :)"
I was looking for an article that mentioned social anxiety order, antisocial disorder and ZacK Greinke. Once work is over, I'll hop on ProQuest and find something that's peer-reviewed, preferably from the AMA.
Opinions are all over the map. Crasnick and Schofield are saying the Royals won just because no prospects are ever guaranteed. There's even a little bit of a "baseball outsider vs baseball insider" argument going on.
"ESPN's Keith Law called the deal a "heist" for Tampa Bay , and some chat board posters engaged in the inevitable potshots by force of habit. Friedman is revered among the armchair know-it-all crowd, and Kansas City GM Dayton Moore is a convenient punching bag, and this latest deal helped perpetuate that narrative.
If the five email responses I received from baseball executives late Sunday night are any indication, the reaction within the baseball industry is more nuanced.
Believe it or not, people can have social anxiety disorder and be "anti-social".
I had the Orioles winning on my backup set of tea leaves.
Are the failing of the young "can't miss" hitters (and pithcers) the fault of the hitters in particular, or something specific in the Royals system? Granted, not every prospect pans out, but the Royals aren't exactly growing pitchers on trees like the Braves or A's or hitters like some other teams. Maybe KC's just being smart for trading rookies they figured they couldn't fully develop?
Regarding the TB trade, people said the Cubs made a mistake.
The Miguel Cabrera trade isn't a good comparison. That was a salary dump and many people at the time panned the trade value-wise.
Maybe the only reason Greinke developed was that he was too antisocial to listen to the Royals coaches :)
Well, in terms of building a winner, Agon/Hanley/Greinke's a better way to do it than Buehrle/Reyes/Bell especially when you already have Kemp, Kershaw, etc.
Just my luck for a trade to involve a chunk of people on my Scoresheet team while I'm travelling i.e. Myers, Montgomery and Niemann who might now make the Rays rotation. On the flipside, I'm glad Montgomery went to an organization with a history of developing pitchers and have high hopes they can straighten him out.
Agreed. Not exactly a blockbuster, but the Twins got a lot of value out of this.
He's a legal alien from LOOGYville.
"The United States Code of Federal Regulations requires Francis to allow more runs than his component measures portent. By allowing 5.6 runs per nine innings despite a 4.31 FIP, Francis was doing his part as a law-abiding citizen."
The tone of that reminds me of the humor I like to see in BP Annuals.
Out of curiosity, is there an "official date" where the Astros are in the AL? Opening Day? January 1st? Start of spring training?
Jeffrey Loria is the Scott Boras of owners? :)
Actually, after they were warned, they gave Josh Johnson an extension. That got them off warning for 2011 then they traded him in 2012. He only got 3.75MM in 2011 and 7.75 in 2012. It then goes up to 13.75MM for 2013 and 2014
If they send a catcher as the PBTNL to the Rockies, we'll also know the catcher can't frame a pitch ;)
Thanks for the chart. Even though 14 of 28 got an OPS better than .725, I'd like to think the Giants could cobble something together for cheaper. Maybe, offensively, it's a reduction to the .675 OPS range but I'd like to think the difference is no more than half a win in value and six million dollars a year cheaper.
.275/.340/.385 should be easier and cheaper to find especially at 2B
The Rockies trade down again. As mentioned in the article, why should a losing team trade for a setup man?
I'm not sure why Sabean would overpay for an older second baseman like Freddy Sanchez er... Marco Scutaro.
Sometimes I just think the potential should be tempered a bit.
Let's say you have a player who can hit, can take a walk, and doesn't strike out much but hasn't learned how to hit for power. Maybe, right now, he's done .300/.360/.440 after a year of A. If he learns to hit for power and maintains everythng else, he could be a .850-.900 OPS player in the mjaors.
Let's say you have another player with amazing tools, the potential to hit 50 HR, great body and all that jazz... drafted in the first round but scouts still question his hit tool and he hasn't played full season ball yet. Sure, he can learn to be a .900-.950 OPS player but he has a heck of a lot more to learn and prove before he gets there.
I still think, in that kind of case, the first player should be rated higher. It's one things to have potential to do a lot of things, but there should be a lot of credit for what's already been accomplished.
You're right, I missed those 24 at bats at Tropicana, my bad.
I think Loney is going to be a minor bust for the Rays. True, he's got an .807 career OPS on the road, but that's with a .932 career OPS at Coors and a 1.042 career OPS at Chase Field, two former NL West rivals. Factor in that he'll be in the AL East and hasn't had a full season OPS over .800 and a line like .280/.340/.420 seems about right since they are right about his career numbers, but still below an average 1B numbers. Now throw in the fact that he is past 29 which is past prime time as far as career years go, he's coming off a sub-par season perhaps fueled by some bad skill (based on his low BABIP since, if you're consistently around a .300 BABIP, it means you aren't really hitting a lot of line drives), and he is on a one year contract and it's his last hope of breaking through and getting a big contract. Nothing really is in alignment for him to go off, so I don't think this a great signing.
I think there was a case a few years back about the Orioles trying to demote someone to avoid paying his salary.
Scouts appear to know that Bubba Starling has problems with his hit tool too. Shouldn't that temper his expectations? I mean, no one ever has a perfect swing or approach, but some are better than others and I imagine it's hard to go from "swing can get long and loose; struggles with pitch recognition; fastball swing; soft and spinning can beat him; " to "Overall Future Reality: 7; extreme"
As far as A-Rod's hip thing goes and the confusion on which hip it is... it makes me wonder if he is having back trouble or if it's some kind of cascading injury.
Name a GM who didn't employ a player whose name wasn't associated with PEDs.
Go ahead, I dare you.
I imagine if that was possible, some other team would've tried it by now. You wouldn't have to be Scott Boras to file a decade's worth of grievances over it.
I remember PECOTA projecting A-Rod's downturn before the 2010 season and wondering why the heck it was predicting such a dropoff. I ate my crow but still don't know what it saw besides an age curve for a historically atypical player.
You're assuming the Mariners and Royals want to win...
It may be a special group, but you have a special group of busts too. Even the prospects who have made it through the majors have had quite a few warts on them. How does a guy like Gordon, who was supposed to be the next George Brett, forget to hit for a few years? Where did Hosmer's and Moustakas' bats go? etc. Sure, you expect some prospects to fail, but so many?
Don't even get me started on the Royals pitching prospects either...
Or to rephrase:
The Cubs were already in a position to trade Marmol without an obvious replacement, such as the Haren rumors. They were already looking to move him before Camp was even re-signed. Signing Fujikawa doesn't really give them any extra freedom.
And what I'm saying is:
"A" has happened without "B"
...does not mean...
"B" enables "A"
... is true.
I'm not sure how much signing Fujikawa and trading Marmol are related. Teams have traded away closers before without having an obvious replacement. Billy Beane's infamous for that.
My pleasure. Thanks again.
To digress for a second, just wanted to say I'm impressed with all the offseason content coming out from BP. Usually things slow down around this time of year, especially with the Annual so, just wanted to say I can see and appreciate the difference.
Matt Morris should get an Honorable Mention just for the sake of showing how goofed up the Pirates were.
In the end, baseball will be revisionist and Miller will get in. Heck, the Hall of Fame should dedicate a wing to him.
A week or two would be pretty useless.. he'd have to spend at least half a year at AAA and, after posting fees, contracts and advancing age, a team would not be likely to put a player there. Besides, Japanese imports are generally signed to fill major league holes and part of their price tag comes with the implication that they're pretty well developed at that point.
I'll trade my Cubs for your "inferior" product as long as the Yankees bring their perennial .500+ winning ways to the NL Central.
Never thought I'd say this, but those Pirates odds for the World Series look nice. I don't think they're as far from the Brewers as the odds suggest. The Royals would be worth a flier too.
For 70 million, the Royals could buy two teams worth of Marlins.
Btw when offseason prospect trades happen, do they generally get removed from the AFL and/or winter leagues? Do they stay in the league but switch teams?
As I recall, the 2007 Nationals were pretty bad with only one starter breaking 120 IP (Chico at 167)
Don't forget to provide a few doses to the podcasts too. I'd buy tickets to hear Colin's Adderal-enhanced 2 minute explanation of PECOTA.
Not surprising, considering how many misread their cough medicine and get busted for PEDs.
I was pretty sure he would sustain it, which is why I kept the price high and I definitely enjoyed buying low on him.
Though in retrospect, that Garza trade's been a bad mistake. Too many NL crossovers now since Segura (from the Encarnacion trade) is now in the NL.
Maybe the top high school or college managers, but it's been a long long long time before I've seen a major league manager throw batting practice, shagging flies or taking grounders. Coaches, of course, will throw batting practice, shag flies, etc.. but managers won't.
Btw, I disagree that "all good managers are also all good coaches". It is very possible to be a horrible coach but a good in-game tactician and vice versa. As you said, all the things that an in-game manager does exists, at some level, in other management positions. Meanwhile, coaching in a specific area like hitting or pitching, are specific skill sets that do not necessarily overlap with management skills.
Of course, all of this is even before the discussion about how much value is a good manager (or, as in the CJ Nitkowski article), a good coach is worth...
Or, if you want all the affects of Adderall and don't want the suspension, take it with a doctor's supervision and let MLB know...
I'm not sure managing is at the top of the coaching pyramid anymore. You rarely hear managers giving advice on how a batter should change their swing or how a pitcher should throw a pitch. Managing is limited to in-game tactics and strategy with the only real "coaching" on the intellectual side i.e. throw a curve away on a 1-2 count, take on 2-0 unless it's a fastball down the middle, etc.
Hey now, I'm the one who called right on Encarnacion. :)
It's part of the fun, for us. To those not into sabremetrics, it's probably part of the frustration that stats come in and out of fashion. A casual fan takes awhile to grasp what OPS means, then get told "but it's best not to use OPS" and that fan would be less likely to try to learn the next new stat. I remember when game winning RBI was all the rage. Then you had things like Runs Created being en vogue. There was a time that Win Shares were making the rounds in mainstream media. Yeah, it can be frustrating to the casual fan.. which leads reluctance to adopt it.
But, again, some would call wOBA incorrect or incomplete and want to see a different stat in their broadcasts. On WGN's Stat Sundays, they had WAR and I'd guess there were quibbles with that from sabremetrics... it was progress, but still, as more and more stats penetrate the mainstream, so will more and more arguments over which stats to use.
Very nice article. I got a chuckle out of those quotes with the flavor reminding me of some of the comments in the BP Annuals. The Iorg/Mulliniks stood out for me since I used that kind of thinking on my APBA teams. Yet, even as I look back on those days, I don't remember thinking about walks much.
I also have a hunch we are coming close to the time where as sabremetric ideas hit more of the mainstream, there'll be a "new sabremetrics" movement arguing with the mainstream sabremetrics. Just as OBP and OPS have now become regular occurrences in TV broadcasts, some sabremetricians are probably pulling out their hair that WAR/WARP et all aren't being used. How confusing it must be to a broadcaster that a stat they just learned and have been using for the last five years is now considered "incomplete".
The Hall of Fame members, in large part, are players who performed at a high level. There are quite a few players in the Hall of Fame that didn't care about the fans and, by your logic, they shouldn't be in either.
I wonder if Miller will be a bit like Santo, in that the stigma about Santo not being in was so great that he had to pass away in order to get inducted.
So, all the Astros have to do is offer him Comcast... :)
Few contracts are frontloaded. Agents and teams prefer backloaded contracts for a few reasons. Teams like having the initial financial flexibility and backloading it is a little less expensive when inflation is taken into account. Players past their prime are more likely to be traded but the past-prime salaries make it a little harder to do so.
I compare it to Aramis Ramirez's contract with the Brewers since they have similar injury histories but similar above average production when they are in the lineup.. except Longoria provides more value (especially on defense), is cheaper, and is younger.
"Longoria’s deal is cheaper than both—in fact, he will not make more than $12 million in a season until 2017 at the earliest."
In other words, he won't be paid $12 million per year until he's 31.
In other words, his prime years are locked up at well below market rates.
In other words, he could completely sit out a year from ow until he's 31 and still be a bargain... and he'd still be a bargain after that too.
Maybe Longoria can now buy the Rays a new stadium.
He was reborn as Carlos Lee.
I was a communist once. Then I realized someone had to pay the bills.
Once Siberia produces a kid that throws 100 mph, the policy will change to black out Russia too.
On the subject of box scores, I'm grateful I don't have to wait until Thursdays(?!) to see the week's transactions.
I can agree with the idea that at this time, it isn't very plausible for sabremetricians to form an opinion on whether coaching has value since right now, it's hard to measure what that value is.
Also, in fairness, note that you can only speak to what makes a good coach to you. However, different players have different personalities and respond differently. Someone you might think of as a good coach, another player might not. Even among players, it's hard to find a person universally valued as a good coach.
In a way, it could be a bit like a superstition of eating chicken before a game or doing five batting practice swings instead of six swings.. what matters is that, to the player, the coach is right for them. Even better if the coach happens to bring a new idea that helps the player out.
If you think the bulk of coaches are similar, might that be suggestive of the challenges that sabremetricians have in evaluating the effect of coaching?
If players think coaches are similar and there's no compelling stat that makes a coach jump out (for better or for worse), then I can understand (though I may not agree) with the impressions some sabremetricians have portrayed regarding the lack of value in coaching.
Pitchers peak earlier than hitters? I'd been under the impression they peak later, especially because they spend a bit longer in the minors building up innings.
In general, it does make sense to me for the Marlins to trade Stanton because they probably won't be competitive by the time Stanton hits free agency. And, while Stanton is a great, perhaps unique talent, I just don't know if a team would be wise to trade all its top prospects, so close to the major leagues, for him.
I bet Jose Lima would be signed if he was still alive.
Maybe the Marlins will bring back Livan Hernandez for a farewell tour ;)
Thanks for replying C.J.
While a sabremetrician may be "outside the game", the better ones have spent months or years studying a single topic. In addition, generally a sabremetrician publishes their findings for review by other sabremetricians for critique and commentary. In some instances, being outside the game can be a bit of an advantage because it can allow some impartiality in the research. However, there are quite a few sabremetricians who are able to call up a team requesting information and/or interviews.
Coaches spend all their time around a player. Sabremetricians spend all their time around particular topics. I think both sides can provide insights just as physicists have done research on the effects on baseball at altitude. Heck, I even get a kick out of the Mythbusters episode where they look at things like whether running through first base or sliding is a better play.
So, to sum a bit, I think sabremetricians can have an opinion just like an average fan can. Their opinion might be more thoroughly researched and vetted than an average fan but just because a sabremetrician is not on the dugout shouldn't be the sole criteria to dismiss their perspective.
I still don't get why the Marlins should be applauded for trading away supposedly bad contracts without also getting dinged for signing those bad contracts in the first place? It smacks of an organization with either shifting goals, or smoke and mirrors to create the illusion they want to be competitive.
Oh, and I'd add Derrek Lee to the list of players the Marlins should consider signing :)
Wouldn't it be similar to last year's Montero/Pineda trade with Stanton in place of Pineda? Montero was relatively unproven and Pineda had established major league success.
Granted, Stanton's a superstar and it's harder to find an outfielder with his skill set, but I doubt four quality propsects like that would be needed.
And besides, if I was the Padres, I'd just hang on to Alonso/Grandal/Gyroko/Erlin and wait a year or two then sign Stanton. Ditto if I was the Rangers, I'd just hang on to Profar, Olt, Perez, Martin.
Now, if it was a fantasy baseball league, I'd be more likely to trade four rookies for Stanton...
Hey that was my line! :)
This all has one common demoniator. Money.
As I recall, that kind of measurement was tried on Leo Mazzone after he went over to the Orioles. But, as I recall, he seemed to have little effect.
I'm glad C.J. took some time to write since I've bee a distant fan of him for awhile.
However, I do quibble with the idea that sabremetricians can't have an opinion on coaching because they never played baseball. Isn't that a bit like saying a catcher can't be a pitching coach? Or that a general manager who never played baseball can't hire a coach?
Personally, I don't dismiss coaching though, since it is hard to quantify, it is hard to assign it a value. Usually in the BP Annuals there are comments about how coaching changed a player. Studies like those on catcher framing also can indicate a result of good coaching.
Too much for the Padres to give up.
Something like Gyorko, Erlin and another pitching prospect would work.. From the Padres side, Gyorko's a bit superfluous with Headley's breakout year.
How did Joe Girardi or Fredi Gonzalez offend Miamians? The rosters were in similar states of disrepair. A multiyear contract is no security, especially from the Marlins. I'm not even sure if any of the money is even guaranteed.
Besides, if not offending Miamians was at the top of Jeffrey Loria's priority, he should just fire himself.
Tracy would be a big mistake in Toronto. Though it'd be nice if Acta got it, I'm rooting for Pete Mackanin. Besides, Mackanin's not tied to a team right now.
Kinda like the musical owners game with Henry selling the Marlins to Loria to buy the Red Sox.
He wouldn't be the first Marlins manager with a multiyear contract fired.
Btw, since you touched on contraction earlier, considering MLB revenue and attendance in general has done very well in recent years and the increase in available international free agents, I'm surprised there hasn't been talk of expansion. Finding some way to get to 36 teams would get rid of a lot of the "interleague game every day" schedule problem.
Davey Johnson is Bobby Valentine without caffeine nor an axe to grind.
You can't blame Bud for approving the trade.. it sets a dangerous precedent if he starts deciding what trades are salary dumps, which trades are "equal" etc. But, it is a "fox in the henhouse" argument.
I do find it a little sad that Loria remains in yet known competitive owners like Mark Cuban are kept out.
As I recall, after the MLBPA handslap, the Marlins raised payroll by signing Josh Johnson to a backloaded contract..
"The Marlins recently came under scrutiny amid concerns from the players' association that they weren't living up to a provision in the basic agreement that requires teams to use revenue-sharing receipts to improve performance on the field"
When I found out Dan Haren wasn't going to the Cubs, I felt cheated on.
Scenario 6: Stanton tweets too much and gets traded because a demotion like Logan Morrison's just won't work as a valid excuse.
The free agent crop was better last season too and, with the extra wild card slot, a lot of teams did their buying mid season like the Dodgers, Pirates, etc.
When I mean overpaid, I mean the idea that Melky got more than what Sam's industry quotes suggested and articles elsewhere have suggested. I still think the Jays got good value, especially compared to Hunter.
And on the PED thing, there was that one doctor (or was it his secretary) who got busted trying to get PEDs across the border.
Don't think I heard about that. I thought the Pirates were just outbid. What happened?
I hope Buxton does well since I have him on one of my Scoresheet teams.
Maybe Sano's just been in my mind longer since the days the Pirates were trying to grab him. Either way, even a Russell Branyan is a pretty valuable player.
Over-under that Melky outperforms Hunter?
Francona over Maddon?
I'd think the Jays might've overpaid a bit just because it's harder to lure agents north of the border... also, a tad bit harder to get those PEDs through customs.
I can understand that, but doesn't performance help to justify the validity of the tools?
I mean, if not, don't you run into a situation where each team's #1 pick each year will most likely float to the top of that team's prospect rankings since that #1's evaluation is almost entirely based on projection?
Also, it seems Buxton's being given the benefit of the doubt that we will develop his hit tool but Sano, though being only a few months older, is assumed to be "he is what he is".
Shouldn't they both have a lot of projection left with the difference being that Sano's shown he can hit at A-ball and, showing that, should be more valuable?
Um.. why spend $2 million on a backup catcher.. is he really that much superior to Clevenger to the point he's worth ($2 million minus league minimum) more.
Now, if the Cubs plan is to give Navarro about 40 games by the trading deadline then flip him for a B-level prospect, it makes sense... but if it's to try to change a 65 win team to a 65.1 win team, it doesn't.
I can understand Sano having trouble with breaking pitches being an issue. What I can't understand is he's had two and a half quality seasons while being young for his level. Meanwhile, Buxton, while being half a year younger, hasn't made it out of rookie, much less put up better numbers than Sano did at rookie ball.
Maybe it goes back to the Top 10 25-and-Younger thing, where I was suggesting people who get to higher levels or the majors should rank higher than prospects who have yet to play a season... but shouldn't Sano get a more favorable review than Buxton for performing well at rookie ball and at A ball?
There are cutters and there is Mariano's cutter.
I'm sure if you ask Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux, they all threw three different changeups. I'd probably guess Steve Avery threw a fourth.
Even R.A. Dickey's knuckleball is nothing similar to Charlie Hough's (who was one of his mentors).
Dempster, not valued as highly as Johnson, still netted some future potential. I'd like to think even Buehrle would've gotten at least a grade-B prospect back himself.
... and some time between the splitting of your spleen and the first inch of intestines getting lopped off, you would realize that you were the one who paid for the laser beam.
Besides, while owning a MLB franchise, you get huge tax write-offs.
Risk? The Jays found a way to offload Vernon Wells. I'm sure figuring out how to offload someone like Buehrle will be less risky.
Tracy would be a mistake. Macha might work but he did have some problems with the A's clubhouse as I recall and with towing Beane's line. Someone like Acta might be interesting and would probably fit the saber-mindset Anthropoulous has. I could also see something out of left field like Don Baylor.
Though the Jays take on some risk, most of the players the Jays acquired (Buehrle, Reyes, Johnson, maybe even Bonaficio) would've netted at least a prospect in exchange. Yet the Marlins only got two prospects.
To add a bit of PR insult to injury, the Marlins should've targeted a player who wasn't banned for writing Spanish homophobic slurs on his eyeblack since, from what I understand, there is a pretty thriving homosexual community in Miami...
Wouldn't it be funny if the Marlins timed this so that season ticket holders couldn't get a refund?
Yes, but not quite as old as this bunch. Teixeira was signed at 29, Sabathia at 28. If you count trades, even Alex Rodriguez was first acquired at 28 and Granderson was first acquired at 29. Only Greinke on this team is signed up for a multiyear contract at that young.
You're being too generous to the Marlins. I don't believe for one second they thought they were able to contend last year. They just bought a few players and a manager to hype up their new ballpark then promptly ditched them. Even if the Marlins got to the playoffs, even if they got to the World Series, I still think they still would've sold off Bell/Buehrle/Reyes etc well before their contracts were up.
As an aside, I'm a little tired of my AL Scoresheet Keeper rookies getting traded to the NL now that Marisnick's joined the fray... and he's the type the Marlins will promote before he's ready to whiff away at breaking balls.
But, for some laughs, there are some gems in ESPN's reactions to the trade. http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8629232/twitter-reaction-blue-jays-marlins-blockbuster-mlb
"Hey Lakers. That's not how you alienate a fan base. THIS is how you alienate a fan base - love, the Marlins" - Matthew Berry
Thanks Daniel. I believe I understood your point but I did find the wording (and the implication of the wording) a little awkward.
In 2015, the payroll would still be in the 130 million range.
This one would have to, since it's all downhill after the first year... (if that).
Heck it makes the Yankees look young...
Doubt it. They'll probably put Colvin in RF and they might be worried about the PR problems if Hamilton had another relapse.. note that he has had a few while with the Rangers.
How is a 3.6 FRAA over 113 games a small sample size if a -17.5 over 155 games in 2011 is not considered a small sample size?
I mean, if you want to be generous, both 2011 and 2012 would be outliers of "small sample size" based on his career history of around -2.0 FRAA for 2008, 2009 and 2010...
You'd think the Red Sox could've found someone else to spend 6.2 million for two years on...
The Rockies are _very_ Christian. Even at the major league level, the players often attend service together.
Hmm.. regarding the Top 10 25 and Under, I think I liked the methodology where major league success would have somewhat more weight than minor league potential.. in other words, I'd slot Rosario over Arrendo and bump Chacin up a few slots.
Hmm.. though FIP is mentioned, there's a lot of focus on ERA and ERA+ which I thought was a bit taboo for evaluating a reliever at BP...
Looks like BP thinks the Red Sox will get their entire outfield from free agency...
Hamilton will require a multiyear contract and has problems staying healthy. With Jesus Montero around, they can't really give Hamilton a "half day off" at DH. I just don't see why the Mariners should get him.
Ichiro's decline might've been overamplified as a result of hitting in Safeco the last few years.
"I don't know about you, but I find the idea of Granderson, Longoria, and Stanton in Colorado rather titillating."
I would've found that impossible. Granderson would've platooned with Spillborgh, meanwhile Holliday would've been in left and Hawpe in righ. Then the Rockies wouldn't have retained him as a free agent (just as they let Hawpe, Spillborghs, Seth Smith, etc go) by the time Stanton was in the majors.
In the Denver/Boulder area, they riot whenever anything good happens... even on Cinco de Mayo.
I will say, Sabean seems to operate a team completely different than the Bonds days where he'd just overpay for old veterans. Also, at the time, neither him nor Dusty could develop a rookie pitcher.
When/how did he get smart?
If the A's weren't right across the bay and, especially, hadn't been in the playoffs, I imagine Jenkins would've made something else up to right about... but hey, why let facts stand in the way of a good mudslinging?
I don't mind the beer ads really.. what I do mind is that the ad area bleeds over into the margins of each side of the main page so that, while you might not be clicking on the ad itself, you might accidentally roll over it and expand it.
When did Brian Sabean get smart anyway? Wasn't he supposed to be unable to develop a pitching staff or sign anyone on offense who wasn't at least 35?
The Royals move seems like a bit of a panic move with the way their minor league pitching has gone ala Montgomery, Dwyer, etc.
Joe wasn't exactly infallible. He voted for Manny Ramirez to make the All Star team when he was suspended with PEDs because he, as a rule, always used past performance instead of current season totals to determine his votes.
Ok, my turn to take a bit of an offense. Fielder tried to go vegetarian to lose weight and was lambasted in the media and by fans who saw an early season slump "suggesting" his diet was causing it.
We have a World Series with two portly players. Pablo Sandoval gets a neat little Kung Fu Panda nickname and though his weight gets blogged about every spring training, the discussion is almost "cute". It seems more vitrol gets thrown at Fielder.
Besides, just because someone is 10 lbs lighter doesn't automatically make them faster.
As a bit of an aside, Tim Lincecum this year was trying to get away from eating all the fast food he does and some suggest that's why he didn't do well this year because he was so thin and needed the extra weight.
Yep. You're correct. I guess I forgot him because he wasn't fired.
I can't believe this entire article was written without mentioning how flaky the Marlins ownership and front office is.
Did they really dream of a new era, or just want a taxpayer funded stadium and spent an offseason acting like contenders to be a bit of a carrot?
As noted elsewhere, this postseason featured two ex-Marlins managers (Girari and Gonzalez). Given how the Marlins seem to worry more about a player's Twitter account than his production (Logan Morrison), is it really any surprise that the Marlins would hype up Guillen just to dump him a year later?
The nice thing about a series like this is, for the first time in a long time, there's not a team or a particular player that I'm rooting for. Usually I get personally invested in a Josh Hamilton or a Roy Halladay and root for a team that hasn't won it in a long awhile. But as a Cubs fan, even the Tigers winning in 1984 seems "recent" and they were in the World Series as recently as 2006. I love Sandoval but his ring's only two years old. etc.
The Tigers sweep the Yankees and now the sky is falling? Gotta have faith for more than one game, or to paraphrase a person in a different thread, "The difference between a casual fan and a longtime baseball fan is that a longtime baseball fan knows anything can happen."
Then there's the vulgar version.
J. Eff'(in) Man!... Shi*
"if J.J. needs a blow every now and then he might get some closing opportunities."
Actually I think you're probably right. There's even a chance that neither of them pitch in SF.
Oh and btw, TMNT rocked.
Liar, liar, pants on fire.
Is it possible to use that pitch fx/hit fx heat map chart to look at teams instead of individual players?
Well, let's see, I'm 36 and had mentioned the 1986 World Series in response to Russell. Five of the 11 World Series mentioned were 1986 or previous. So, yes, there are grownups at BP.
When the Giants won the NLCS this year, a smile crossed my face when I saw Shawon Dunston's still in uniform.
The AL pitchers, though worse than the Giants, might not be completely atrocious. Sanchez and Scherzer are recent NL leaguers.
"The club will, however, be at a disadvantage when they play in Detroit; they lack any sort of reasonable DH candidate, and it seems as though they will carry an extra catcher in order to let Sanchez DH. Yucky."
Sanchez's numbers aren't that much different from Delmon Young's so I'm not sure either team has an advantage at DH.
Er, when he was a Cub.
'86 was my first World Series too, though I was allowed to stay up late enough to watch the whole thing. Buckner was my favorite player because I had met him as a kid when I was a Cub.
New Jersey isn't another country?!?!
That pic, for some reason, reminds me of Harry Potter.
Why does Cespedes get the A's clubhouse love and not Parker?
And what prevents a team from voting for their own rookies regardless of who had the best rookie season in the league?
Also, with 92 votes in a 14 team league that means some teams must have more votes than other teams since 92 doesn't divide into 14 evenly. Does that mean that some teams can weight their own rookies more heavily?
The Rockies do the same thing all the time.
It doesn't work for them either.
I think that's abbreviated to "trololol"
I wonder if the "flipside" makes sense too. Do pitchers that tend to have low BABIP tend to do better in the playoffs?
Basically, aren't we saying that, in a single game or short series, TTO hitters are great because they won't hit in many double plays with all the strikeouts and they'll take walks and hit home runs. So, by extension, if TTOs are hitting a lot of home runs, they're more likely to be line drive/fly ball hitters and more likely to hit sacrifice flies.
Out of curiosity, do sacrifice flys also increase for TTO players in the playoffs?
The Red Sox love acquiring Carpenters in compensation deals...
Then there was the byline about how Randy Johnson wasn't a gamer...
ARod has good numbers against Verlander, but as I recall, Chavez and Ibanez had better numbers.
I spoke off the cuff and I'll defer to you.
I was judging by the comments about Arenado being a ".280 hitter with 20-plus home run power" vs "[Yelitch] not likely to hit a lot of long balls, but he could pepper the gaps with doubles and his approach and swing set him up to hit for high average." so I didn't research and assumed Arenado had a better bat. Looking at their numbers so far since I haven't seen either play, it might be fair to argue Yelich has the better bat.
Or Knoblauch or Mondesi.
I don't understand the Arrendo trade suggestion. Basically, you think the Rockies should trade down by trading a third baseman for a first baseman with an inferior bat? Why not just move Arrendo over to 1B?
Fans are fickle. Josh Hamilton's the most recent example.
Btw nice to see that Girardi is at 65% keep.
And defensive metrics say Jeter is immoveable.
Holliday is the healthy one :)
Doesn't the same thing apply to Crawford? How much of 2013 is he supposed to miss?
Btw for a funny spoof:
I guess Darren Dreifort's been forgiven.
I'll respectfully disagree with Alex Rodriguez at #1. Most of those contracts are overpaid outfielders or starting pitchers who can't produce at the league average. Alex Rodriguez, while overpaid, is still _at least_ an average player offensively and defensively especially when compared to players like Crawford who have been injured. I understand the rankings are for fun, but these are a bit sensationalized.
Strange as it may sound, Sabean picking up Melky Cabrera turned into a bit of a coup. 113 games of MVP-level production from a CF will help any team, especially if the price was just Sanchez. Without Cabrera, there's a chance the Giants might not even be a wild card team.
Actually, I was pretty busy that day but since you mentioned me by name, I felt it was only appropriate to reply directly. And thanks for the comments about my debating skills, though I'll admit, I'm not as grounded in the numbers as some others on this site are. Generally, I am pretty busy (though I also type fast) and type up comments while waiting for code to get done spinning. I also do things besides go on the computer (FYI I have a life) so, perhaps if I focused on here, I'd become an even better debater?
In closing and in all seriousness, I'll admit I sometimes I get sarcastic, sometimes I get flippant and sometimes I get silly (hence the parody), but I don't try to insult people directly. I may say "what you wrote is stupid" but I won't say "you are stupid". If I've offended you personally, I do apologize, but I don't hate you, I don't dislike you and if apologizing doesn't try to relate to you better what my intentions are when I participate in BP threads, well, that makes me a bit sad but I will manage to get along in life.
The rumor is that the Marlins would take him and offload Heath Bell. It makes sense in a fashion where he could play 3B for a few years then shift to 1B if needed.
Mike Schmidt got booed a lot.
It's interesting that Leyland keeps mentioning Rivera considering, during the playoffs, Rivera would often be brought in during the 8th inning to begin the save if the game situation dictated it.
Ugh, I'd hate for Harrelson to come to the Cubs... Steve Stone, on the other hand..
Recently? I thought this had been discussed and seen before on BP many times..
When you speak about a 4 run lead, you mean Cano had a -1.7 BRR and Cabrera had a -5.5 BRR right?
As for eyes, eh. People insist Pablo Sandoval should be moved off of third base to first base because he doesn't look pretty when he fields, but various metrics indicate suggest he's at least average at 3B.
On the contrary, I think rotisserie encourages players to look at the numbers deeply and to realize things like "In the 90s, hitting 20 HR wasn't as rare as it was in the 80s... so what is rare?"
Len, as a lifelong Cubs fan, I was so happily pleased to turn into a Cubs game earlier this year and see a "Stats Sunday" on Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem. It gets hard as heck talking with other Cubs fans about the article I read at Baseball Prospectus and things like that definitely help.
It's too soon to rehash an argument I already made unless I can figure out a way to add something different like sarcasm.
"But even then, they hit .212/.285/.345."
Over 8 games, isn't that basically the same as the "191/.254/.307" since Jim Johnson in Game One? The words "even then" make it sound like it's an improvement. Over 240 plate appearances that's, what, a seeing-eye double of difference?
In terms of VORP, Cabrera has the edge over Cano.
In terms of WARP, Cano has the edge over Cabrera.
WARP includes FRAA which I don't trust.
So I still lean towards Cabrera.
Maybe Sabean should get a bit of an upgrade to his reputation. He's much better at building an offense (without breaking the bank on a washed up veteran) than he used to be.
Are you saying that if a pitcher is exhausted and can't throw the ball over the plate and when he does, he isn't effective, that what the manager does or doesn't do is irrelevant?
I think Davey Johnson kept Gio Gonzalez in there too long. I seriously can't believe it took him that long to get pitchers warmed up.
And that '86 World Series involved two East Coast teams in a generation where your TV set had only about 8 nationwide channels.
I could see something off the grid... Oakland might be an interesting fit for a low-key environment while having a DH. I don't quite see him being a good fit for the Braves (or any non-DH team) which is a common rumor that goes around.
As far as Casablanca goes, the movie came out before many of the cars did and it's associated with style, so a better question might be why so many cars are named after Casablanca.
Crazy ownership > being a jerk
There are jerks who don't get fired.
There are non-jerks fired by crazy owners.
A crazy owner thinks anyone who doesn't agree with them, by default, is a jerk.
On the other hand, Fidel is a baseball fan and he throws government money at trying to stop teammembers from defecting. If there is anything Castro does splurge on, it is baseball. And yeah, MLB teams have a lot of money but Cuba has a GDP of $57 billion. MLB athletes train in the Dominican Republic and/or outside the United States all the time and they seem to do just fine. And if Cuba was that inferior, why would MLB be more interested in Cuban prospects than, say, Brazil or Nicaragua or another country that competes in the Pan-Am games? Also, in comparison to Japanese prospects, very few Cuban prospects who signed major league contracts completely bombed in MLB. So, in the meantime, I'll suspect that the training in Cuba is more than adequate and, again, given Oakland's recent non-history of developing offensive contributors, Cuba might even be better than Oakland (Cespedes, Leoynis Martin, Kendrys Morales,Alexei Ramirez, etc.).
OOps, typo. Should never read "don't think that you've never" but should read as "don't think that you've ever". Sorry!
(In all fairness, just forget the logic of the parody and yes, I don't recall you ever complaining about Bartman. I just tried to play a little tongue-in-cheek while saying as a Cub fan, I forgive Bartman. Besides, sometimes it's better to do a parody than to be outright confrontational.)
But I just want to add that I don't think that you've never complained about this.
The idea of doing the parody gave way to the idea of using consistent logic. My main idea, as a Cubs fan, is I'm tired of people picking on Bartman for something most other fans would've done. Even things who "know" better don't always act correctly when the situation actually happens.
I just couldn't structure it as well logically since I was inspired by the format of your comment ;)
It's not like it's done any good, but I have no problem with saying you are out of line. Eventually, it would be nice if you notice that other fans were also reaching for the ball in situations like this. You still see it all the time, and it never ceases to amaze me, because these are almsot certainly the same people as you who complain endlessly about lack of awareness when fans do things like reach for a foul ball or yell to distract a fielder.
I still can't believe that almost every single fan, paradoxically, are not noticed by you when they go for a foul ball in the first row. They're at the gane. You see they ahve a seat in the first row. Think about it for two seconds. There ought to be someone telling you that it's part of human nature to try to catch something coming in your direction.
I was an A's fan and quite young but still in awe/amazed/respected Gibson just for stepping up to the plate. The home run made my jaw drop.
Byung-Hun Kim springs to mind.
I always admire the under-shelf cubicle light that I've never quite found a use for. Apparently, neither does John because the only thing illuminated is an empty rack.
On CNNSI they have JPGs of the high school scouting reports on Maddux.
Physical Description: "... tall...gangly...he should get bigger..."
Abilities: "... all his stuff has good movement...all from a natural delivery..."
Weaknesses: "... has to get ahead of the hitters more often..."
Summation and signability: "We can sign him but it will take some money..."
"I think it’s fair to assume that the quality of instruction he’ll receive with Oakland will be superior to that which he had in Cuba, and he’ll also have access to more and better resources, including athletic training, video, you name it."
How do they train players in Cuba and what kind of resources do they have? If Cuba was doing something wrong, why do they have so many propsects signed to multimillion dollar contracts? Is it really a fair assumption that Oakland, who hasn't produced an offensive talent since Eric Chavez/Miguel Tejada, is really superior?
That's what I'm saying... and yeah, his feelings for his dad aren't a guarantee for long-term success.
Angelos fired Davey Johnson after a winning season as I recall. And I lump the Marlins into the crazy ownership demographic.
His dad cried at the press conference out of happiness. That's enough reason for Francona, beyond having ties to the Indians organization.
Become president of the Chicago Cubs? :)
I think you need a reason #3... Crazy ownership, which would put the Marlins and the old version of George Steinbrenner in that category for firing a manager.
I did use the 0.27 wrong so thank you for correcting me.
I think part of what Sam is also saying is that the home field advantage during the playoffs specifically should be amplified when it is not. In general, though, he seems to suggest a home field advantage exists in general. It just doesn't get much of a playoff bump.
I think part of the problem is Rangers fans are a bit spoiled and some of the Rangers writers for ESPN have a field day hacking away at Hamilton.
The guy's had a rough life, in part from his own doing. On the flipside, he _has_ had a lot of weird stuff happen to him. If I was a baseball player and a ball I threw into the stands killed someone, I'd seriously think about not playing baseball again. Compound that with Hamilton's battles with himself and attempts to maintain his faith and, yes, a troubled soul. He is the kind of guy who one day could say "enough is enough" and retire completely from baseball and I'm not sure I'd blame him either.
I wonder if Chen's stutter in his pitching motion leads a little bit to that illusion of his fastball being faster than it is.
According to B-Ref, I have ATL 2012 attendance as 29,879 per game and 2011 attendance as 29,296 per game. The overall attendance numbers match between B-Ref and Brown's chart (2,420,171 and 2,372,940).
"Why remove Ibanez once he’s at third, but not as soon as he reaches base?"
Some reasons I can think of:
A pinch runner often gets forced out at second.
The value of a pinch runner is not so much to avoid an out as to score a run. The speed difference is most evident when the runner is on second and is more likely to score on a single. Was there a high chance that a pinch runner could've scored from first on Suzuki's single? Doubtful.
On balls hit to the outfield, few pinch runners on 1B are fast enough to turn a single to the outfield to a first and third situation. A ball hit to left or center will most likely be a first and second situation regardless of how fast the runner is. A ball hit to the gaps as well as a ball hit to right is most likely a first and third situation anyway.
That'd be a neat article. Which prospects does the BP staff disagree the most about?
"“The ark was built by an amateur. The Titanic was built by a professional.”" - Ian Desmond
That one's going in my keepsake box.
non-prospect != not useful
My understanding is that it was initially O'Dowd's idea. I'm not sure Tracy was a huge fan besides a "ho hum, let's try it".
Tracy's greatest failing is demoting or benching rookies for inferior veterans. Rosario was being benched for Ramon Hernandez in the same way Iannetta was previously being benched for Torrealba and Olivo. Fowler was hitting 8th when he was the second best Rockie hitter after Carlos Gonzalez. It took repeated injuries before Rutledge was given a chance over Scutaro.
Now, it's not all on Tracy, since he's not the one who signed Scutaro (or signed Cuddyer then traded away Seth Smith), but the Rockies have a way of shooting themselves in the foot.
Groundskeepers also can sculpt the field to play up to their team's strengths, such as height of infield grass, dampness of infield dirt, etc.
I agree. A visiting team needs to win a game in 9 innings, a home team has to win it in 8.5 innings. Also a 0.27 edge is still pretty significant, especially if a team that goes to the World Series would play anywhere from 10 to 19 games.
He should auction off his customer number on ebay too.
I think the Rangers fans, and to some extent, the Rangers organization are already feeling a bit entitled and spoiled. Hamilton's overcome a lot of crap, but he's still a human being and he can't go 4 for 4 every single game. I also didn't like that Ron Washington was apathetic about winning the All Star Game because he thought home field advantage in the WS was irrelevant. He probably still has no idea why the Rangers ended up as a wild card team, just because he hasn't given me the impression he's an "active" manager and has a habit of just letting things play out.
If Cabrera was a DH, he'd definitely have that held against him for not playing a position. True, 3B isn't CF, but it should get him some credit and more than, perhaps, if he played 1B.
I remember Sveum spent about two weeks deciding how he wanted to revamp his Cubs lineup. The unveiled lineup had Mather batting third and, in his first at bat with a runner on second and an out, Sveum had Mather bunt.
Teams do bunt too much.
What about a speed triple vs a nonspeed double?
Are we using Terminator rules or Back to the Future rules?
(Allusion to South Park)
Typos look ten pounds heavier on a smartphone.
I think Miggy plannead ahead and slipped Josh Hamilton some caffeine.
I do agree with the article though. Anyone could have a fluke batting average, career year with home runs, etc. The interesting thing with Miguel Cabrera is that he's constantly been a great hitter, even when the Marlins played in a poor hitting environment. People call Cabrera lackadasical but he hasn't been as inconsistent as, say, Hanley Ramirez.
Oh we could have fun with this one.. TheoRicketts, CashBrenner, Henry Lucciano Cherington, etc.
I've tried off and on for a few years to see if BP wanted to do an event at my high school in Aurora, the Illinois Math and Science Academy. They have research days throughout the school year and summer camps for Illinois children and BP is/was based in Chicago.
Miguel has even more power than Trout than it appears if you change Trout's triples to doubles and any legged-out doubles into singles. That part of SLG/ISO is more a function of speed than power.
I read the entire quote. But apparently Tim Hudson didn't think before he spoke.
Cody Ransom's disqualified because he sucks.
Are andrews and DeathSpeculum stuck on some kind of self-fulfilling regurgitative repeat?
Not sure, to be honest. I have BP 2007 and I have comments going back to 2008, so that should be at least half of the "10 years" you were referring to.
"There should be at least a little more margin for error, even if it were a best-of-three series."
The margin of error is called "the regular season".
I'd like a front office view of the Rockies.
"•If we limit the list to 200 PA or more, Dunn drops all the way to third."
I think Brett Jackson's #1, right?
You're kidding, right? BP's always liked that the Tigers owner supports the team and have been a fan of Dave Dombrowski for years. On the flipside, BP can't understand why the Angels often outperform their Pythagorean record. In any event, I haven't seen an anti-Tigers bias.
The argument might be in miniature, but it reminds me of the 1998 Sosa vs McGwire MVP debate where McGwire achieved something historical (breaking Maris's record and setting a new HR record) while the Cubs went to the playoffs with Sosa who was, at the time, inspiring fans and teammates as a feel-good story.
The Tigers are in the playoffs and the Angels aren't, thus Cabrera wins the MVP. They'll compare Trout's batting average, HR and RBI to Cabrera's and pick Cabrera.
Not the way I'd vote, but that's how most voters will vote.
Then we'll get a month of articles from sabremetricians about how wrong that decision was and be an anecdote for all future MVP awards.
When the Teddy Roosevelt mascot makes front page ESPN news, writers need some kind of controversy to talk about so they stir up their downballot choices.
Maybe my memory's bad, but I remember being told to focus on the back leg (the one in contact with the rubber) because if that leg "popped", the pitcher had begun his motion. Thus a right handed pitcher either had to go home, or kick out so he could pivot and throw to first.
I agree on the definition of value qualitatively. I don't think the hammer, while close, hits the nail on the head quantitatvely.
Furcal ain't what one might call healthy, but I can think of quite a few players (Nick Johnson) who are less durable.
I love the Dunn quote. People forget that even the MLB third string catcher or mopup reliever most likely was the best player on their team from Little League through colllege.
Note though that Torre's first job with the Mets had a winning percentage around .400.
In the grand scheme of things, people really still don't know how much a manager factors into their team success. I still have the hunch that basically any Joe Schmoe who knew a little bit about baseball could manage a baseball team.
Total fail? Prefer a 100 loss season with no farm system and no budding stars?
Is there a reason Porter's name wasn't mentioned much last offseason?
Cupcakes aside, if you believe in the theory that good teams generally beat bad teams, then an average team would be less likely to win against a bad team. So, the Astros leaving might actually help the Brewers.
Let's take teams that finished over .500 in the NL Central in the last two years and compare them to the Astros. (In 2010, 3 years ago, the Astros were in 4th place which is why I only looked at two years).
In 2012 vs the Astros, the Reds (.600 W/L Pct) went 10-5, the Cardinals (.538) went 11-4 and the Brewers (.516) went 8-6.
In 2011, when the Brewers were first in the NL Central (.593), they went 12-3, the Cardinals (.556) went 10-5 (and eventually won the WS) vs the Astros.
Granted, there's small sample sizes and all that, but generally good teams have a better chance of beating up weaker teams than average teams.
I laughed, just because it reminded me of the Book of Mormon musical, in a good way.
"Some of the players in his own team's clubhouse reveled in referring to McClatchy as the "fag owner.""
Now, that should've been reported on.
It's symptomatic though based on American cultural norms. Many cultures, for example, the French, don't think a kiss of thanks between two men is inappropriate. Whether its PDA or a kiss of thanks or whatever', America is stigmatized about it. But even then, the issue is full of vagueness. Escobar's homophobic slur is "bad" but someone saying "That's gay" is still accepted even though the latter statement also has negative and derogatory connotations. Similarly, a whiteboard message is dismissed as a joke where, to some, it could be considered negative and intimidating.
A league average team generally has a good shot at winning the NL Central.
And Wainright did kiss a teammate, though on the cheek.
Ryan's point is that it's not different from the eyeblack and, basically, that the Cardinals should get a note from MLB for promoting an intolerant working environment in the event where two male baseball players consent to kiss each other on the baseball field.
And yeah, a note at my workplace about not being able to kiss my significant other would be intimidating. PDA at work does happen and it's not like a husband and a wife or boyfriend/girlfriend need to hide in a stairway to share a single kiss. Too much PDA is inappropriate in most work settings, but if I kissed my coworker/girlfriend and was told by my boss not to do it again, I would feel intimidated since I would feel my job was threatened. Was that the intent of the Cardinals message? That teammates who act homosexual might get removed from the team? Or, was it all "amusing" and people should laugh it off and ignore it?
Personally, I get that it was a joke but I can also see how it can harm homosexuals. I imagine locker situations where a gay man will see a teammate make out openly with a woman and know that he couldn't do the same. Or, if people knew he was gay, refusing to give him a celeberatory hug or a slap on the fanny for a game-winning play.
Well, if a player french-kissed his girlfriend or wife after a great play, no one would care. But if a player did that to his boyfriend or husband, then you bet there'd be an uproar. That's part of the double standard.
The other part, as R.A.Wagman said, is that people get on Escobar for using a phrase that could intimidate homosexuals but no one complained about the Cardianls whiteboard message which also could intimidate any closet homosexuals in the Cardinals clubhouse (and/or visiting writers).
We live in a society where you can say "I want to slap your wife into place then beat you up." but can't say "I don't give a f***"
There's still a lot to root for in Colorado. I'm rooting for Tracy and O'Dowd to get fired.
There's probably something written about it in the unwritten code of conduct that reads "Thou shalt not do this on purpose."
Not even Corey Dawkins?
I'll say, Jose doesn't look like he ever extended his elbow so the worst stress might've been on his shoulder.
I remember being told that, if an umpire ever called time in the middle of a pitcher's windup, it's best for the pitcher to follow through with the pitch since hard-stopping the motion could lead to injury.
Maybe I'm just remembering stuff from before 2005, though maybe they were just injuries.
I believe I've seen it where an opposite-handed pitcher was brought in and so, the position player got pinch hit for to retain the platoon advantage. I'd like to say the Rockies did it once and maybe the Cubs.
I thought I'd seen a few more instances when position players were pinch-hit for in the middle of an at bat because of a pitcher injury/ejection (as opposed to a batter injury/ejection).
Just think, if the Yankees hadn't won, he would've had the honor of making the front page (and back page) of the NY Daily News.
Looks like every BP Editor has used "free reign". Christina might've been the worst offender.
I always thought "free reign" made more sense anyway since the meaning of the phrase is "do whatever you want"
To be fair, you could say that about a lot of movies like The Sandlot, Rookie of the Year, etc. Or if you want shoehorned baseball plots, Amazing Grace and Chuck or Frequency.
I wonder if it would have made a difference if there were performance bonuses in Cabrera's contract regarding the batting title. Isn't he technically still eligible for the Silver Slugger too?
If they think that's bad, I hear living in Pittsburgh is hell.
Eh, a workout that doesn't involve lunges isn't that torturous. I hated lunges.
"Odorizzi should slot in as a solid third starter at the big-league level, with the chance to have some seasons on the level of a second starter and possibly make an All-Star game or two."
That would also make him the Royals ace.
I didn't know that. I know Mike didn't write a lot, but I figured it was because he was spending time researching.
I also know there were people like Jay who wrote a lot but passed off things like the Hit List to others before he left.
Yeah I remember that and as I recall it involved the Astros. Basically, whichever of the three teams didn't play in the one game face-off would've mathematically gotten an automatic playoff berth.
On the YouTube site, there's a lot of people saying they should just use period music. On the other hand, I can understand using Jay-Z to appeal to young African Americans and it didn't seem like the lyrics were explicit/offensive from the snippet I heard.
Something else people have said is that, while the actor playing Jackie Robinson looks a lot like him, his voice is much different from the real life Jackie Robinson.
I do like Ford's portrayal.
KG's hard to replace and really did a lot. I just saw the Prospect Team and for some reason I wondered if BaseballProspectus became BaseballAmerica ;)
I love Russell. Though, truth be told, since he's been back he's been writing more about how he, as a sabremetrician, perceives intangibles and other topics that came up while he worked for a MLB team. I don't think he's had a quantitative sabremetrics article since he's been back.
And hey, I like Max a lot too. Eh maybe I'm just looking at things wrong but Marchi seemed to be brought on as a straight replacement for Fast. All things considered, he's done a great job. But, it's not like Fast (or, if you want to go farther back, Fox or Silver etc.) left and they replaced each one with three sabremetricians.
Nice to see Harrison Ford back in some good movies. He's also going to be in Ender's Game coming out Winter 2013.
Out of curiosity, why so many prospect writers? I also hear about the pending satellite coverage for local prospect coverage.
Not saying it's a bad thing, per se, but why not grab a few statisticians/sabremetricians?
Headley was also a trade target because there were some who thought Gyorko could be better for cheaper.
My apologies, I meant pre-2011 Headley.
As far as FRAA goes, it's bunk so I try to ignore it and also don't use WARP because of FRAA's effect on it.
Zeile wasn't bad. He pales to a lot of the players of that era who were hitting 40+ HR, but he wasn't a complete OBP or SLG sinkhole. Headley has a taste of OBP but it's the question of whether his power is sustainable. A few years ago, Mauer had a power spike and he wasn't able to keep it.
Accomodaring is dangerous.
And a bunch who did turn it around. Bautista, Encarnacion, etc.
Do we unabashedly claim Dan Fox turned around the Pirates? I say yes.
Awesome breakdown. Can we use this methodology on successful one pitch pitchers like Marinaro Rivera?
I'll be honest and say I don't know what fWAR is.
2010 was a good year from an OBP perspective. He drew walks at a slightly higher rate but he also increased his batting average. He appears to have kept that same pattern going into this year but if drops from a .280 hitter to a .260 hitter and loses his power, he'll be pretty generic. According to FRAA (FWIW), his glove isn't keeping him in the lineup either.
What I don't get is no one really know why he's doing better. If it's due to offseason changes, why wasn't he hitting for power in the first half of the year? How do we know this isn't some kind of fluke?
And Headley doesn't have to fall off a cliff to be worse than Zeile.. just revert to , you know, being pre-2010 Headley.
I chuckle that the Rockies thought they were contenders with Moyer slated as their #2 pitcher but the fan in me hoped it would work. I actually got exposed to BP from Rob Neyer who, along with Rany Janzerali (sp?) had a blog called Rob and Rany on the Royals. Besides it can be easier to analyze when things are going wrong than when they are going well.
A good half season doesn't automatically make him better than Todd Zeile.
I remember when the Cubs got competitive in 1998. People thought I jumped on the bandwagon just because I had purchased a new Cubs hat (since the four other ones I had were all pretty ratty).
I guess I saw Garret Jones and Neil Walker and then my speedreader skimmed to the next paragraph.
Eh never mind, for some reason I missed that paragraph.
#10 Pedro Alvarez seemed to turn the corner offensively and become a productive major league regular.
I had read quotes that Sveum was going to give Samardzija a long leash to finish the game. As I recall, it took 120 pitches.
I don't know enough about UZR to blame it or give it credit. Besides, I already go to baseball-reference.com and ESPN.com to view statistics or splits that aren't easy enough to find on BP, so I'm not going to add another site just to find UZR.
So, I blame FRAA instead because I know, for any given player, FRAA will swing from +20 to -20 from one season to the next for whatever reason, and that reason is unknown.
Take Jeter, for example. He's at -5.2 FRAA. It's his best FRAA season since 2005 (-0.1), and before 2005, you have to go back to 1996 (-2.3). If you remove 1996, 2005 and 2012, usually, he's anywhere from -10 FRAA to -25 FRAA. Did he miraculously become a better shortstop at age 38 that reversed the last 6 years of trends?
His FRAA affects his WARP and is a significant factor in why he's at 3.1 WARP so far this year though he's had much better offensive seasons WARP-wise.. he's just not getting dinged by FRAA this year for whatever reason.
My point exactly.
A.J. didn't really come back from anything though. He's always been pretty much around the same level and, in fact, was valued for that consistency.
Isn't WARP in general trending downwards? You need a graph that compares shortstop WARP to non-pitching WARP.
Actually, I live in Denver and my house is in one of the Top 10 foreclosed zip codes in the country. I'm still doing ok.
My main point is you overvalue Strasburg, this year, to the point that you are devaluing everything else. That's why I'd buy your land for pennies on the dollar. If I was in your kepper fantasy league, I'd trade you Strasburg for Jackson + a star player and a prospect and walk away happy.
Thanks to you as well!
(And of course to Maury, not just for his insight on my comment, but for providing a good topic for discussion.)
I'm kind of used to these kinds of games. I'm a Cubs fan.
Wilin Rosario is going to get mothballed just like Iannetta did.
Besides being a nun, which part of the fewer-than-600-words was about religion?
If you don't notice that their overall statistics are similar with Jackson providing longer starts in exchange for a slight drop in quality, then I'll buy your land, hold onto it for ten years (since land prices tend to go up.. you noticed that, right?), then sell it for a healthy profit.
Yes, I'm sure. Prior peaked around 91 and Wood around 93. I'm sure there are replays of the Bartman inning that show the mph.
Note that right now, the Reds are considering shutting down Chapman for not throwing 100 mph. His average pitch has dropped to 95mph-ish.
Lannan won't be in the postseason rotation. But, if I was to take a starter and put them in the bullpen, I'd prefer to put Lannan since he's got a bit more experience with changing routines. Basically it's Strasburg vs Detwiler as a Game 4 starter since Gonzalez, Zimmermann and Jackson have all thrown well.
Sure, it's painful, but it's not a real good justification to keep someone in. A.J. Burnett, Jason Marquis, and quite a few others have been left off postseason rosters before.
Ok, should we really play that game.
John Lannan is 27 years old and was the Nationals best starter during their "lean" years from 2008-2010. For his efforts on an unrecognizable Nationals squad, he was demoted to the minor leagues twice and fought his way back. One could argue he's had to work harder and deserves to be in the playoffs.
Or, we could say Chien Mein Wang had to overcome even more adversity to get back to he playoffs.
Sorry, the idea that Strasburg "worked hard and earned the playoffs" is dismissive of the other players on the roster who have had to work as hard, if not harder.
I'm a Cubs fan, I watched the 2003 NLCS. When neither Wood nor Prior were barely throwing 90 mph during the playoffs, it was obvious that something was wrong. Also, the Cubs were up 3-1 in that series but kept throwing Prior and Wood on short rest. That's the kind of thing that happens during a playoff, risks get taken. If Strasburg was on the Nationals postseason roster, I guarantee you similar risks would be taken to throw him on short rest or have him throw in relief if a game went into extra innings. Does it guarantee injury? No. But just because you play Russian Roulette only once doesn't mean you'll survive the experience. Each extra risk is an extra spin.
I also don't think anyone is taking the 160 inning as gospel since the Nationals are trying something new, hence the controversy. But, with Strasburg just as they did with Zimmermann, they use it as their own team policy.
The Blind BABIP might've had fewer GIF frames though. Each one of these GIF clips runs for about 10 seconds where the BABIP clips were about four GIF frames a piece.
More proof FRAA is weird. Bourjos went from -7.1 FRAA in 2011 to 6.5 FRAA in 2012 with much less playing time.
Aw thanks (though it's closer to a few hundred posts). I've had a few fun posts about the A's lately, though overall, I think I enjoyed the Dungeons and Dragons posts the most.
And, in general, the Nationals have much better information than we do about Strasburg's medical status than we do and they can talk to doctors to get opinions. If they think it's a good idea to shut him down and if the benefit of keeping him going is relatively neglibile, it makes sense to defer to them.
I've seen quite a few articles that have taken a similar position to yours.
To rehash some of what I've said elsewhere on this thread...
The Nationals are doing with Strasburg what they did with Zimmermann. Zimmermann turned out well.
Strasburg is not, at this point, marginally better than the Nationals top three pitchers. Note that Zimmermann has had a comparable if not better season than Strasburg.
So why risk it?
And to address your specific point about "the man has a chance to pitch his team to a championship", it is in the Nationals best interests to do what is best for the Nationals. They don't "owe" Strasburg a chance to pitch in the playoffs, especially if they feel it has the chance of hurting his future contribution to the Nationals. As far as the exhilaration goes, it's that kind of intense atmosphere that can lead to further injury. On top of that, throw in tougher lineups and the idea that many starters pitch on short rest and there's even more risk of injury.
And, as I said earlier, Strasburg could throw a few more "relatively meaningless" September games, further taxing his arm, just for the Nationals to get swept in the first round.
Let me throw something else out there too. If Strasburg was extended into the playoffs, the drama wouldn't end. The media would be pressing for more Strasburg on shorter rest or coming in out of the bullpen in extra inning games. It's not like the drama dies out just because Strasburg is allowed to go over his innings limit.
Again, Strasburg is a six inning pitcher who is not marginally better than the Nationals top three starters. His chance of pitching a team to a "Championship" is in the same range as the other Nationals starters. As the Braves of the 90s will tell you, having three future Hall of Famers in your rotation doesn't guarantee you a Championship either. Meanwhile, Strasburg has the potential to be a Hall of Famer, but he ain't there yet.
Guess it was a bit obscure because Chavez was a position player, but he had a tendency to get hurt if the wind ricocheted off the empty seats at the Oakland Coliseum wrong.
Wouldn't affect the A's either since they trade away their rotation every year.
You must be an Eric Chavez fan.
Why is it unusual for Boras to go along? Both his interests and Strasburg's interests are best served by Strasburg being healthy enough to get future contracts. Maybe if Strasburg were a pending free agent he'd be against the innings limit but Strasburg's under contract for the next few years still.
It'd be even better (for my fantasy team) if Bourjos got more than an at bat a week
Were there any 70s movies worth watching that weren't porn?
26 or younger... Basically anyone with less than three full major league seasons.
Veteran pitchers that jump from 120 to 200 innings usually aren't much of a concern. If it was a young pitcher, I'd be concerned.
No, there's nothing out of the Nats camp that there is currently anything medical. However, Strasburg is only 24 and, prior to this year, had never thrown more than 145 innings. Most players his age are still in AA or AAA and, with the way minor league schedules go, stop throwing in August. Should the Zimmerman rules apply to every young pitcher who gets Tommy John surgery? Who knows, those kinds of guidelines haven't been attempted before. Perhaps it'll work splendidly, or it'll inherit the Joba Rules punchline.
Look, if Strasburg was the ace of the staff, or even the second best pitcher on the Natioanls, there would be a more compelling argument to keep him pitching into the playoffs. However, the Nationals of today aren't the Cubs of old that we're talking about. In those days, Wood and Prior were the two best pitchers for the Cubs. Strasburg isn't in the top two Nationals. The marginal difference between Strasburg, a six inning pitcher, doesn't suggest that appearing in a playoff would be that much of a difference between that Nats #3/#4 options. So, why risk it?
Or, the flipside. If the Nationals as an organization decided to limit innings on young pitchers like Zimmermann and if those rules have been formed based on the Nationals research, then why change those rules and show favoritism just for Strasburg?
And then, there's something else to consider. Strasburg was "angry" though he knew the decision was coming. Other articles in the mainstream media have suggested that the innings limit affected him mentally in his last start. If you have someone who is that emotional recovering from an injury pitching in a playoff atmosphere for the first time, they would be even more likely to overthrow a pitch, hide that they are tired and/or hide an injury. So, again, why risk it? Remember, Strasburg hit the disabled list in 2010 with shoulder soreness. Three starts after his return from the DL, he went back on the DL for Tommy John. This year, according to his BP player card, he had right upper arm tightness.
Again, why risk it? And, again, how much of a difference would there be between Strasburg and the alternatives, especially for a six inning pitcher?
A funny sidebar about all that. Tommy John was quoted as saying he didn't think Strasburg should be shut down. Boras's response is "Would you rather take the advice of the doctor who performed the surgery or the patient who was asleep?"
It's also the wrong question to ask. The Nationals have a pretty good hold on a playoff slot. The correct question is whether Strasburg is that much better than Zimmerman, Gonzalez and Jackson since most playoff staffs use a three man rotation with all the extra off days. Or, if they use a four man, is he that much better than Detwiler?
Note that Nolan Ryan instilled heavier pitching workloads in the minor leagues as one of his main priorities when he took over the Rangers. Has the Rangers staff gotten better? Yes. But they've also had a ton of injuries, to the point where their deep rotation got so thin they had to dig up Roy Oswalt.
Not really. The Nationals aren't fighting for a playoff spot, they have one pretty well secured. Thus the Nationals don't need him for September.
Strasburg isn't the best, or even the second best pitcher on the Nationals right now and at best, he throws six innings at a time. We're not talking about a CC Sabathia throwing three 8+ inning games in a short time frame or a Halladay who tends to throw complete games so the impact Strasburg would have on the playoffs is minimal.
Two years from now, though, he could be the best pitcher. Is it worth risking three or four more games just so he can become the next Mark Prior, whom I might add, he is frequently compared to? I don't think so.
To rehash what's been said on other Strasburg articles, the same thing was done with Jordan Zimmerman and Strasburg isn't even the best pitcher on the Nationals. If he was in the playoffs, there's a chance he'll overthrow and/or be forced to throw on short rest, further risking injury.
If he started spring training late, he would've faced major league hitting later and as Behemoth said, if Strasburg had to miss a start or two because of injury, he wouldn't hit that 160 IP threshold. Skipping a start each month would've also thrown off his routine.
Besides, let's say the Nationals kept throwing Strasburg through September and into the playoffs. Which Nationals pitcher sits during the playoffs? And what if, even with all that effort, the Nationals lose the first round 3-0.
The process worked with Zimmerman so it makes sense to use it with Strasburg.
Maddon's quote was a poke back at Bobby Valentine btw.
I'm sure no team minds facing the Astros.
I'm not sure you can have it both ways.
If Showalter has "matured as a manager", then why is there so much roster turnover? Very little of the turnover has been in the bullpen and most of it has been swapping position players or starting pitchers, so how does that really help with matchups?
If Duquette and Showalter have come up with some magic formula that defies run differential, do you expect them to have the third best record in the AL next year too?
I'm inclined to think that, while the Orioles are in much better shape than they used to be, overall their roster is poor. The players swapped in midseason haven't performed significantly better than the players swapped out. I can't think of any Orioles midseason who will play a real significant role next year either.
The Orioles have a good, cheap bullpen which helps with winning one run games but they're mainly the beneficiaries of being lucky. Another way that they've been lucky is that there's been a lot of injuries in the AL East in general. While the Orioles have had their share of injuries, until they lost Markakis, it's not like they had lost a Mariano Rivera or Alex Rodriguez or an Evan Longoria. Those injuries helped level the playing field a little bit.
Well, it was just a year or two after free agency, right? Very little TV revenue, no online revenue, fewer major league teams/divisions/playoffs and there were few $100 tickets or $100 replica jerseys back then.
Though, in effect, an economist with that kind of prediction will eventually be right because eventually every sport will go bankrupt, eventually every person will die, the universe will burn out, etc.
It's a pity Matt Swartz isn't still around since I believe UPenn is his neck of the woods and he has a degree (PhD?) in Economics.
Maybe the team's upset Bobby Abreu got DFA'ed?
I don't know if you are missing my comments because you are having difficulty responding in line to the thread. Though I may sound dismissive in this comment, I can appreciate the effort you went through to collect data. However, you do not seem to be comprehending my comments well. So, let's recap the end of the last one.
In your most recent comment, you said: "you seem to have an aversion to admitting that this guy you obviously don't like is universally acknowledged as a first ballot hall of fame player."
In my first comment, I said: "I realize Chipper is a Hall of Famer"
In my third comment, I said: "I never said I didn't like Chipper."
You aren't reading anything my comments. MY WHOLE ARGUMENT is: "Smoltz and Glavine were not shown loyalty." My "position" has nothing really to do with whether Chipper is durable or not.
You want to think Chipper is durable. I tend to disagree. R.J is the one who is suggesting he shed his "soft" label and I disagreed with that. I can admit I am wrong, as I have in the past, when I feel I am wrong. I don't feel I am wrong but I really have little interest in proving or disproving how durable Chipper has been. Nor am I going to argue numbers that are being cherry picked because it's like having an argument with jello. Also, I'm not going to argue numbers with you because you are not reading my comments.
Again, I don't dislike Chipper. I feel Chipper is a Hall of Famer. Again, MY WHOLE ARGUMENT is: "Smoltz and Glavine were not shown loyalty." Your only response to that was some quip about thoroughbreds and a few thousand words about Chipper.
Sure, I can dive into the numbers, cherrypick back, note that only people who have played since 2004 are likely to be star-level full time players anyway (or else, they wouldn't have been playing baseball that long). And maybe we'll get to the point where you I say he's averaged 124 games and you say he's averaged 125 games, or I say he's averaged x plate appareances and you say y. Except, I'm not gonna. As I said, how durable Chipper is has relatively little to do with my argument that "Smoltz and Glavine were not shown loyalty."
And, for the record, I'm a Cubs fan.
The word for 2013 is they'll keep the four man staff on a 75 pitch limit, but they'll assign an "opposite handed middle reliever" with a 50 pitch limit for each day as well.
Well, regarding the last part, awards such as Gold Gloves and the media/broadcasters would most likely make the distinction. They see a fielder make a play, and that play becomes an anecdote (either good or bad). An anecdote and its interpretation are based on personal opinion on whether anyone could/should have been able to make that play. That formulates a concept from that observer about whether the player is a good or bad fielder. That concept makes it into the next article or sound byte and, voila, a good fielder now exists and after forwarding the article or soundbyte a few times, they become universally recognized.
In theory, most major league baseball players have been playing baseball for 15+ years. They are probably all "good fielders" compared to the average Joe Schmoe. It may be that the variance in skill level among MLB players themselves is so small that the difference is hard to measure except for the extremely good and extremely bad players.
And hey, sometimes a good fielder isn't a good fielder because of the play itself, but because of the defensive positioning their coach gave them.
The way to counter that might be hard statistics. However, sabremetricians aren't in every park, and though things like STATS Inc has zone charts, even that is imprecise and prone to user error. You would almost need a pitch/FX type system that takes a camera recording of each play (and I believe FRAA uses somethign like this). However, again, you yield to subjective judgment.
So again, what is good fielding? It might be similar to "what is a good pitcher?" We still don't really know what attributes make one pitch harder to hit than another. Yet, by looking at the results of the pitches in aggregate like swing and miss, home run, etc, we can get an idea of what a good pitcher is. Fielding might need the same kind of approach and for some metrics like UZR, FRAA, etc, a better understanding should be shared about how those metrics work.
Besides some amorphous (+10 FRAA = 1 win) or whatever, I have no idea how a +3 FRAA is different from a -3 FRAA in terms of outs, double plays, assists, errors etc besides one is "three runs above average" and the other is "three runs below average". I have no idea why a player will go from a +20 FRAA to a -5 FRAA, etc.
Well, that's kind of how things go. Statistics have a model of what _could_ happen and can say with some percentage of certainty what _should_ happen and any variances are due either to the model or to variance/luck. The trick is, when something doesn't happen, sabremetrics tosses it into the variance/luck drawer where others toss it into chemistry or superstition.
It is possible for a team to underperform because it was unlucky. It is possible for a team to underperform because of "team chemistry". But it's hard to figure out which part weighs how much, if anything.
I award you a -1 and may God (and dianagram) have mercy on your soul.
Last year, Darwin Barney's fielding PCT, Range Factor were the third worst in the NL before Uggla and Weeks. This year, they're among the best. Meanwhile, his FRAA went from +7.9 to +9.8. I'd think FRAA would've/should've swung even more positive into +17 Aaron Hill territory.
Fielding metrics, "traditional" and "sabremetric" ones, are weird.
Though it would be nice, I'm not sure if it can be done. As a comparison, there isn't as much high school, college, independent league, summer league or minor league data as there is for major leaguers. For example, trying to find pitch count data at anything other than the major league level is very difficult.
My point is that he hadn't been healthy in general since 2003.
You are the one who explicitly said "Guess which NL third baseman have played the most games. Chipper (age 31-40) played 1226 games".
You gave him an extra 200 games played in the outfield and all his games as a pinch hitter to pad those "games counted" numbers.
Then you limited it to NL only.
Now you're arbitrarily expanding it to "corner outfield spots or 3rd base" and throwing in AL players, but only ones who were aged 32-40?
I get the idea. You like Chipper. I never said I didn't like Chipper. I'm just saying players with tenure on the Braves like Smoltz and Glavine were not rewarded. In any event, I'm sorry, but I'm not going to play these cherry-picking games. It's kind of like saying Mark Grace was the best offensive NL first baseman in the 1990s because he had the most hits in that decade but he smoked cigars which people find offensive and its easy to find first basemen in free agency which is why he didn't retire as a Chicago Cub.
Leave Jose Canseco alone! - Richard Bergstrom aka Not Chris Crocker
Why do you go back to his age 31 season? He spent his age 31 all in left field and part of his age 32 season in left field. He's also had 27 games at DH since 2003.
Using games played is a bit misleading anyway since he would get a "game" for each pinch hitting" appearance.
I'd like BP to have the kind of detail, flexbility, readability and sortability that baseball-reference does. It's also kind of disjointed with a hit tracker here or a fantasy tracker there. I can't even find platoon splits here either.
Generally, I go to b-ref (or even ESPN) for hitting/pitching/fielding data then do a search on BP for articles.
" Although past Atlanta greats Dale Murphy, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz spent their final years in decline with other teams, Jones prevented the Braves’ eyes from wandering by consistently producing."
I realize Chipper is a Hall of Famer and all that, but Glavine and Smoltz produced more consistently than Chipper. Smoltz and Glavine didn't spend a day on the DL for over 10, and in the case of Glavine, 15+ years. And no, Chipper never shedded his soft label either. He hadn't played in 150 games since 2003. I'm sorry, maybe you didn't portray Chipper as a superhero, but you're not giving due credit to some of his peers who did deserve to end their career in Atlanta.
The fantasy information that was in the Future Shocks: Star rating, ETA and Fantasy World Impact, were enough for me.
WGN has a "Stats Sunday" where they highlight something in Sabremetrics. They spent last Sunday talking quite a bit (maybe 20 minutes?) about Bill James Pythagorean Theorem. Does CSN do that?
Minusbats. Thankfully, the effect is barely noticeable if you make your Saving Throw vs Willpower (3)
Better anagram him before it's too late!
Er, VOMBOSISS = Value over Marginal Broadcaster or Seventh Inning Stretch Singer
Been too long since I've used it ;)
A few years ago, I came up with a joke metric. Value Over Replacement Broadcaster or Seventh Inning Stretch Singer (VOMBOSISS). The basic idea is to count how many seconds of something a broadcaster said or a singer sung was more interesting,funny, entertaining, or thoughtful than if the broadcast had been randomly muted by a technical glitch (or by choice).
Even Joe Morgan did ok on that scale.
To be fair, there was a lot of "the sky is falling" when Joe, Christina, Will, Jay and quite a few others left and it took BP quite awhile to find its voice.
Things are better now, which is probably part of the reason people are less panicky about KG leaving...
That being said, I am disappointed the Future Shocks are being retired. The Transaction Analysis, Hit Lists and quite a few other things that departing writers left were inherited by others.
For some reason, it never clicked for me you'd been writing for BP that long.
Extremely well said. I'll admit KG was a big factor in keeping me going too and now, in general, things are much better with the "new" BP.
Every so often a set of people go around and minus every single comment I make for a few days.
Fortunately, they can't keep up for long.
I actually ran some stats on that once. I went from Sep 1 2010, to June 13 2012 making comments that didn't get a -5 or worse. The Sep 2010 one was for saying "I don't drink beer because it's against my religion... I don't believe in drinking anything I don't like the taste of." which is a line I use in RL as a joke. The June 2012 had to do with me not reading Jason Parks. So, in consideration of the audience's preferences, I try to be careful about beer and Parks.
The nice thing about this kind of article is you can do it again two years from now with a completely different cast of A's starters.
If the Astros take Ynoa in the Rule 5 Draft, we'll know who to credit ;)
That's at least two people from BP that the Astros poached. Mike Fast went there too.
While the comments can be interesting (or can be generic scout speak), when I read the columns, I find it more important to know who is being talked about.
I generally didn't go out of my way to learn about prospects but I always went out of my way to read your material. A damn good job like you did deserves a damn good job like that in baseball.
I remember him being drafted by the Cubs and this issue hanging over his head. Anyway, there's a quote saying he got a standing ovation after the Molina incident at a Wichita State banquet.
Of course, Theo still tried to sabotage the deal by trying to send Soriano to the Dodgers, but unlike the Red Sox, he didn't like the pitching prospects the Dodgers were offering.
You got it wrong. What matters is who prays to God more.
No mention of Jose Canseco getting blackballed?
*Hmm, that sounded wrong*
Oh those poor Angels, 5 games over .500 with the best young player in the game, a future Hall of Famer, a Cy Young candidate, warm weather... at least they're not the Astros, right?
"I can’t remember the last time a rookie starting pitcher entered the season with as much (or more) hype than Matt Moore this past spring."
Do you remember David Price circa 2008? He even one-upped Moore and pitched well in the World Series.
Or, if you want a non-Ray that's technically a rookie, I heard about this guy named Yu Darvish...
I had to spend about ten minutes convincing a skeptical Starbucks barista that Eddie Vedder from the ukelele CD their store was selling and the lead singer of Pearl Jam were the same person.
The manager sections in the 2012 Annual were very disappointing. Usually they recapped all the previous season's managers and talked a bit about the new managers. Usually, I like the manager information and find it more interesting and insightful than FRAA.
Regarding Sveum, I remember how he spent two weeks hinting he was going to tinker with his lineup. Then, in the first game of the new lineup with Mathier hitting third, he had Mathier bunt.
So, out of curiosity, was this article inspired by Penn State's recent decision not to play "Sweet Caroline" because of the "touching me, touching you" lines?
Even better. Eddie Vedder vs Scott Stapp in a Celebrity Deathmatch.
"You stole my voOoice!"
Beckett wasn't exactly chopped liver. Despite how much the media thrashed him, he still had a decent WHIP and was averaging six innings a start. As a general idea, he was much better than Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs were able to find a taker for him. Perhaps a team like the Orioles could've used Beckett.
Crawford, primarly because he was hurt, would've been very hard to find a taker for. However, insurance should've been covering most of his contract for this year.
No teams would've taken both Beckett and Crawford. However, at least one team would've taken Beckett. I would've kept Gonzalez, traded Beckett and ate Crawford's contract. It makes little sense to me to sell Adrian Gonzalez and Beckett for ten cents on the dollar just for the opportunity to give away Crawford for free.
Instead, just like Youkilis, the Red Sox spent a few weeks trashing Gonzalez in the media with this text message stuff, then yet again, just like Youkilis, sold low.
Thanks for the apology but, not only wasn't it necessary, but I truly learned from that comment. I really hadn't noticed how much I commented when compared to others until you mentioned it and it made me reevaluate quite a few things.
I thought about quitting, not because I was pissed off or upset, but I felt I was too "locked in" to BP and wondered if my time should be spent elsewhere. So, I branched out a bit and explored other sites as well as worked on some side projects. I even went through an extended "quiet" period. Heck I even figured I could be quiet for at least a year until KG caught up to me.
So sincerely, thank you for that. It gave me a good opportunity to reassess and try to figure out if I still enjoyed here as much as I used to and whether it was worth my time or not, especially since most of my favorite authors had left. In any event, I'm still here for at least another year and the reality check definitely helped.
Well, all things considered, the Dodgers didn't really give up much in the way of talent. They did give up a lot of money, of course. But considering what the Red Sox gave up to get Gonzalez and that their major league and minor league talent have been thinned out in recent years, I'd like to think the Red Sox could have gotten more than just salary relief.
I'll actually admit that when I wrote it, I actually had Fernandez as the above average player. But in hindsight, you are correct. Good catch.
Does deferred money owed count against the payroll luxury tax?
Luck always matters.
There's no level of skill that will make a baseball hit a rock and cause a bad bounce but there is a skill in being able to adapt to a bad bounce to successfully field a ball. Luck also has to do with mental coin flips, where people, when faced with a 50/50 or value judgement decision and arbitrarily decide one way or another. A runner deciding whether to go to an extra base has a skill (speed) but is also "betting" that the outfielder doesn't make the so-called perfect throw, that they don't twist an ankle on the basepaths, etc.
However, if you tend to do certain things well, you can, as you said, neutralize luck or use a lucky situation to your advantage. You are more likely to succeed in catching that bad hop or taking that extra base. If you're a batter and the incoming pitch is flat, a skilled hitter is more likely to use such a lucky occurence to hit the ball with power than an unskilled hitter.
Another way to put it is that you could be the best driver in the world and still be unlucky enough to be around a below average driver and get in a car accident. However, the best drivers are less likely to be in car accidents in general.
I was aware of the Branch Rickey quote, though after I came up independently with my own version. "Skill is the ability to turn luck into your advantage or to the disadvantage of your opponent." Except, that saying was applied to Battletech and dicerolling, not baseball ;)
And I'm glad you like them. Every so often I get a wave of minusbats so it's nice to be reassured.
It is apples and oranges for a lemonade parody.
"Once Bonds left, the bitterness went with him. Right now, there's a mutual rivalry based on history, but it does not have the meanness. There was a meanness just playing at Candlestick Park.”
—Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully, on the rivalry between the Dodgers and Giants, both competing for the NL West division title."
Stow's family might disagree.
Skill is the ability to create a situation where you are able to take advantage of luck.
"It’s being called the Mega-Trade, and hooray for that because what we need now is to put names on specific trades that make them sound like Transformer knock-offs."
My White Flag transforms into an AL Central pennant.
On December 5, 1990, Fred McGriff was traded to the San Diego Padres with Tony Fernández in exchange for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter.
One HOF, two "Hall of Very Goods" and an above average player.
Maybe it means he's hungry?
Wasn't Tallion being "forced" to throw only certain pitches for his low minors career?
I realize the high dollar amount that the Red Sox traded away is a fun buzz topic. Kind of like how a box office hit generally breaks "top grossing" records because of how ticket price inflation as opposed to the number of tickets sold. However, I imagine there are other teams that have offloaded higher proportions of their payroll. The Astros, for example, went this year from a $38 million payroll to a $5 million payroll.
The overspending by the Dodgers in an attempt to keep up with the Giants resulted in a demise similar to that suffered by MySpace in trying to match the spending of a Mark Zuckerberg-inspired technology budget.
Eventually they ran out of adspace and collapsed under their own weight.
The MySpace, like the Facebook, will linger, but never to the same prominence they once held.
Hey but they always have Justin Timberlake to remember.
The Red Sox have made a habit of torching their own players in the media.
I never thought I'd see an article at BP that said Punto was a relative asset on offense.
It couldn't hurt.
Pretty much everyone noteworthy has been suspected of using PEDs for Christ's sake. Heck, there was even a "fake" 2003 failed test list floated around at one point that had Pujols on it. Skip Bayless went even more unprofessional than usual and accused Jeter. The basic point I have been trying to make is that some people are more suspected of steroids than others and Brady, because of highly unusual season, gets more whispers than others.
Without the benefit of hindsight, why?
Crowdsourcing is supposed to be an effective tool. So, let's just turn it into American Idol and let anyone watching at home or in the stadium text to 55555 with "Safe" or "Out". Based on the mid-inning promotions, the technology is definitely there. Besides, it can become another source of revenue.
Just-ice served Master-fully.
Just as a further note, I do think Twitter helps provide witnesses and cuts back a bit on the "unnamed" sources. Sure, someone might be tweeting about an anonymous source but at least it's easier to backtrack to who reported it. The example of a manager optioning a player to AAA being kept private really hasn't happened in the last twenty years and Twitter hasn't been around that line.
Jokes are never lost, just temporarily misplaced. Happens to blondes like me.
He could select the article in IE/FireFox/Chrome, copy all, paste to notepad (which removes the Twitter gifs), then do a find/replace for any paragraphs that mention Twitter and replace it with the word "email". Basically that's what Twitter is, mini-mass emails.
Although Pierzynski didn't flash much power in 2011 -- hitting just eight homers and driving in 48 runs -- he believes he made some key changes that started last season.
He made what he described as minor adjustments to his approach that carried over into 2012 and is also feeling more loose when he steps into the batter's box.
"Not trying too hard, not putting too much pressure on myself," Pierzynski said. "Just going out there and trying to enjoy the game and it has been good because we have a good bunch of guys on this team that allow that to happen."
The funny thing is, AJ's usually been a pretty valuable catcher just because he's been so consistent. Then again, though he's been with the White Sox for awhile, he didn't exactly play in hitters havens with the Twins and Giants. So yeah, hard to know what to make of all this.
Hey, I hate Fox News and think a good chunk of its television channel should be sandblasted into CandyLand.. but if someone says something on Fox News, it's still a public record of a statement made, and thus, it's evidence that can be used to substantiate/validate an article. Same thing with Twitter. Many celebrities communicate with their fans via Twitter, so, a record of what they say on Twitter can help give insight as to what is going on in the Twitterer's mind.
That being said, yeah, Twitter is a waste of time and personally, I think a few too many tweets are on This Week in Quotes. But, on the other hand, I like the idea that BP isn't ignoring a widely used system of information.
Regarding A.J., we know the White Sox have a new hitting coach in Jeff Manto. Do we know if any changes were made?
Eh, well, the reason the Rockies haven't had a big time power hitter is they usually have had quality, "moderately" controlled players at 1B, LF and RF. Do you swap a pre-60 HR Sosa for Bichette? Is a pre-2000 Bonds really worth 10 million more a year than Bichette? Is a Helton (especially a young Helton) or a Galarraga really much worse than a McGwire?
Basically, for the Rockies to have a 50HR Hitter, you'd need to find a 2B or 3B who hits 50 home runs or the Rockies would need an elite prospect to come out of their own ranks that plays a position other than SS.
Maybe altitude plays into it a bit too.. it's hard to be a slow, "big-bodied" slugger in Denver's thin air. Also, Coors has a pretty big outfield so the Rockies would lean more towards people who can run a bit. That narrows down the types of rookies that might make it to the majors.
Well, no hard evidence. Jim Palmer suggested he used them, there's a report around about his ex-girlfriend claiming he used him and his 50 HR season is held up as suspicious. Is there anything that directly ties him? Nope. But surely you know that his name and that season in particular has more whispers about PEDs more than, say, even a Jeff Bagwell does.
You could've used any of another set of late career explosions that didn't have as strong of a steroid whisper. For example, Luis Gonzalez's 57 HR outburst at the age of 33, Andre Dawson's MVP season at age 32 where he hit 49 HR, etc.
-1 for failing to spell "naive" so many times...
To be fair, you are the one who brought up Brady Anderson in your closing paragraph, who was tied to PEDs.
Andruw Jones was an August 15th callup or he would've made the list.
Rhymes should get a guest spot here. Seems like a thoughtful guy.
Didn't Jamie Moyer strike out Barry Bonds once?
Different cultures may have different attitudes about work and wealth, but each culture has hard workers and quick learners. Just because the DR is different doesn't make it worse, or doesn't mean they produce a lower quality of person.
There are thousands of millionaires in America, partially because there are 300 or so million people in the United States. There are fewer millionaires in the DR because, guess what, they have fewer people. Now, proportionally, Americans may have a higher rate of millionaires and there might be a general difference in the standard of living... but that being said, there are players from the DR who work hard, and in general, don't experience the "lack of focus" issues that Starlin has.
Where would he have the time to learn the advantages of hard work and discipline? I would guess he had a childhood idol. I would guess that someone like Alfonso Soriano was talking to him. And you know what? There are people who get to the majors quickly, are from the DR, and still manage to maintain focus.
I think Cespedes is a good of a comparison because you have a player adapting to a different environment and culture on the fly. He was extremely hyped with "everyone around him telling him he would be great" and instantly turned into a multimillionaire. That seemed to be the thrust of why you think Castro has had problems adjusting because he was turned into an instant millionaire.
Then again, I still don't buy/can't believe this "Bryce Harper isn't a good comparison because he's an American" spiel. Again, there have been many players in similar situations to Castro. Some succeed and some fail regardless of country of origin. I think it is very dangerous to assume that a certain country's players will mature slower than Americans.
Or A-Rod showing some class and swapping positions so Ripken could play short
Um. Even with all his talent, Harper works his butt off. Also, Harper doesn't make repeated mental mistakes. Also, there are a lot of Dominicans/Puerto Ricans/Cubans/Japanese/Canadians who work their butt off and don't make repeated mental mistakes. Cespedes had a friggin' minimovie put out about his exploits, yet he is working hard and he isn't making repeated mental mistakes.
WTF does being or not being an American have to do with this discussion?
Bases and balls are in Base 4 :P
"On June 19, 2001, Cal Ripken, Jr. announced that he would be retiring at the end of the year. At the time, the future Hall of Famer was batting a miserable .207/.240/.313 and looked well-past done."
If you adjust for the steroids era, Ripken would be hitting .307/.340/513 today.
Beltran was a star at the same time they were keeping overpaid middling vets and it wasn't a complete dismantle. The Pirates, and the Astros, traded pretty much everyone who wasn't nailed down to get payroll flexibility and to restock their farm system with organizational depth.
I disagree that this stuff can't be overdone. If the guys you acquire have no ceiling higher than the players/"prospects", you still are getting a lot of payroll relief which can be used to sign prospects, develop overseas facilities etc. Also, since the bits you acquire are not locked into a contract, they have even more trade value than the older vets you had given up. Besides, sometimes a bit of luck happens and one of those low-ceiling prospects breaks out to do something very useful.
He hasn't shown that he's particularly smart or that he can learn. Part of what makes Castro seems special is he does a lot at such a young age. But, if he doesn't learn and adapt, if he doesn't stay in shape and gets moved off of shortstop, is his current production what you would want to pay for 6 years down the road at $10+ million?
I liked it. It's pure parody.
Then again, I think that's what Jason Parks' fans say too ;)
I actually thought he meant the NL Central was tough compared to the NL West...
The funny thing is, the Cubs already have the perfect mentor in place in Soriano. Soriano was criticized as a rookie for poor defense, many mental lapses, etc. I know he already works with Castro, but ideally, Soriano should be a warning sign to Castro that as you age and your talent fades, you need to put in the work to remain productive.
Ok I'm officially miffed. Wish I had known.
Perhaps I gotta sign up for Rocky Mountain's SABR, huh?
Well, to be honest, I'd prefer Bryce Harper's attitude. Heck, Rizzo's attitude is great too.
Was Ozzie Guillen in Denver for that?
I don't think Sveum alters his approach but I think Castro has $60 million in incentives not to listen. I do think the Cubs got good value, but I also think it sends the wrong kind of message.
Well, he might throw another 5 innings...
The Royals never did it. They were the type to trade _for_ or sign fungible veterans like Francouer, Betancourt, Guillen, etc.
You assume A ball catchers and pitchers, sometimes kids just out of college or high school, will perform the same as major league catchers and pitchers. His SB% now most likely won't be his SB% in the major leagues.
Eh... I see Hamilton pinchrunning for Votto to try to score the winning run, not succeeding, and the game going into extra innings with Votto no longer in the lineup. Baker does those kinds of things.
The Astros did what the Pirates did a few years back by cleaning house, they just did it shortly and quickly whereas the Pirates process took a few months longer.
Should I be happy about a half-full glass of spoiled milk? I'm a realist. Being a major league pitcher is a tough job. Ynoa looked nice as a prospect, but he's getting more and more behind the curve. Heck, he's thrown 27 innings by age 20 and has a WHIP of over 2 for this year. Since he signed an international contract, I believe he only has 2 or 3 more years before he's Rule 5 Eligible. He might be useful or even good, at some point, but he has to speed things up quick for the A's to keep him.
Can they? Most players who rehab pitched at least in high school and college, along with maybe some Cape Cod, Little League, etc. Does Ynoa have any experience in organized baseball?
So, in two years, by the time Ynoa is 22, he'll be at 125 innings? (75+25+25)
He has no fastball command and no changeup.
He's also running out of projectability as he ages without logging much in the way of innings.
The A's might be lucky if he becomes a middle reliever.
I actually meant that a little tongue in cheek regarding Hamilton. I'll try to underline it next time ;)
Why does FRAA rate Darwin Barney highly?
I remember how the last FRAA revision wreaked havoc on Jaffe's JAWS scores.
Well.. can you prove, or at least, provide some evidence that Mathis is smart or that he communicates the nuances well?
Was he really that much better defensively or with clubhouse presence than Mike Napoli, for example to offset Napoli's double digit home runs and "clutch" postseason performance?
If so, why did the Angels acquire Iannetta and let Mathis go?
Why not take someone cheaper like Torrealba?
I mean, we're talking about someone with about 1600 plate appearances, the equivalent of three seasons worth of at bats... there are _lots_ of catchers who fit that profile (or better) and make less.
Why extend Mathis when you have Arencibia already and d'Arnaud is in the pipeline..
Well, sometimes it's six entries and some off-the-wall tongue-in-cheek entry.
Anyway, I do get the idea that it's each author's personal opinion and not what BP as a whole thinks. But still, a lot of these people listed are barely in AA and, especially for pitchers, it'd be risky to promote them so early for a pennant race.
It's hard to tell what goes on under the hood with a lot of these defensive metrics. I remember last year looking at Barney's Range Factor and Fielding Percentage and that he only rated better than Weeks and Uggla among NL second basemen. And yeah, RF and PCT are flawed, but just from those "baseball card" stats it is hard to see why other "advanced" metrics give him a lot of credit since it's not clear what actually makes up those metrics.
The ironic thing is that the Rockies, at one point, were considered innovative.
Now, you have a new ownership team in LA, Sabean actually building a lineup without having a ton of 40 year old vets, and the Padres have rookie pitchers _and_ hitters coming out of their ears. Oh, and you still have O'Dowd and Tracy...
"That's 272 pounds for a player who earned as suspension at the end of last year for taking a weight loss supplement that was on the list of banned substances."
Why did I get the odd feeling this article was just another way to work in a Billy Hamilton reference? Was it the mention of the Red Sox as playoff hopefuls?
I'm working on a theory that the Rockies enjoy shooting themselves in the foot.
They went from Hammel to Guthrie. Then, not realizing they've done a horrible job with getting the pitchers they have to "work", took a fix-up project in Sanchez. At least Guthrie was providing some innings.
They traded Iannetta for a fungible Chatwood.
They let Seth Smith go so they could overpay for similar production from Cuddyer.
Now they have Rosario sitting on the bench for Ramon Hernandez with a rumor that Yorvit Torrealba will be coming back.
But at least they stopped demoting Dexter Fowler or batting him 8th.
"•The fielding metric currently in use there, DRS, has Barney’s defense rated at over twice what any other popular fielding metric does."
Btw Darwin Barney's 2012 FRAA is at 8.7...
Models can be good as a framework of discussion provided the model outputs something meaningful/relevant. The trick is the model itself should be something stable/consistent. FIP, WAR, etc work in a lot of cases and rarely "break", so they make for a good "set of rules" to begin a discussion.
Young Jose: "You're saying in five years, a ball bounces off my head for a home run? I don't believe you, old man."
I'm a little confused too.. what makes the four seamer his best pitch besides the fact he throws it a lot? It generates the least amount of swing and miss and is in the middle of swinging third strikes among his three fastballs.
I understand the four seamer is better than the two seamer, but it almost seems like he should drop the two seamer, throw the cutter primarily and use the four seamer as an extra "show me" pitch.
Dice-K was supposed to have about six or seven different pitches including his mythical gyroball.
Doesn't mean they were effective.
That is classic.
*tests from work on IE*
Yep, it works.
Funny thing is I had figured it was some error on my work's side.
That means nearly half of the league's teams (13/30) and about 13*12=156 pitchers aren't within 10 points. All the more reason to compare to team BABIP allowed.
The aforementioned example you used of the Tigers had a .314 BABIP vs an AL average of .293. That's 21 points. Now, if I was a hypothetical AL Tigers' pitcher and I had allowed a BABIP of .313, I would look unlucky compared to the league average and an analyst might predict that my peripherals have a good shot of improving for the rest of the season. However, if my .313 BABIP is compared to the Tigers .314 BABIP, I would appear to be luck-neutral and predicting an improvement would be incorrect.
Or, take the Pirates example. Assume that in 2011, I am a Pirates pitcher that had a BABIP of .311, matching the Pirates overall BABIP in 2011. Now, if it's 2012 and my BABIP dropped to .278, analysts might think I'm getting lucky when, in fact, my own pitching performance hasn't changed and I am just receiving the benefit of the Pirates improved defense.
See what I am driving at?
Regarding your last sentence, isn't the league average BABIP relatively irrelevant in terms of evaluating a pitcher? What should matter is if a pitcher's BABIP is far enough above or below the team BABIP.
Perhaps "we" was a poor choice.
But, shouldn't we be saying either of those things?
That a pitcher's BABIP must be taken in context with the team's defense at turning balls in play into outs.
That a pitcher's BABIP change might have to do more with changes in team defense than in "luck"?
"However, if that pitcher signs with a new team that isn't expected to be terrible in the field over the offseason, then it's absolutely fair to say that he might be in for better luck, since his environment has changed."
But aren't we saying it _isn't_ absolutely fair to say that he might be in for better "luck" because we're saying team defense is a bigger factor than "luck" (hit ball randomness)?
Aren't we also saying that if a pitcher's numbers improved after a trade from a poor defensive team to a good defensive team, any improvement in BABIP would most likely be the result of the improved team defense since no one can expect "luck" to change.
Maybe my memory's bad, but I don't think I've seen BABIP discussed with the team's defense included in the context.
Do you lock up Jesus Montero now? Is he doing too poorly?
What about someone who is performing at the league average like Matt Moore?
While I agree that 2012 is likely closer to his true talent level than 2011, the "significant" adjective is a bit shaky. Anyone can have a season "better than the norm" and I am not convinced that he even settles in at a .950 OPS. If I were a betting man (in something other than Texas Hold'em), I'd wager he'd settle in at a .900 OPS which, as I said, is still very valuable, especially in a center fielder. He may even settle in to a .950 OPS but I'm not betting on that yet.
Why do I think he might settle in in that .900 range? Ok, call me very silly, but his minor league OPS is .941. Granted, players mature and get better as they age, but the major leagues is supposed to be more difficult than the minor leagues. I can't fathom that turning a year older offsets the additional difficulty of hitting major league pitching.
In the history of baseball, there have been many many hyped prospects who flamed out before reaching the majors. There've also been many prospects who had a good rookie year and a bad second year and similarly, a lot of good propsects who had a bad first year and a good second year. You have hyped players who are good like Joe Mauer who had a .936 OPS at 23, had a home run surge 3 years later in 2006 for a 1.031 OPS but, while remaining above average, hasn't broken that .900 OPS barrier otherwise. You have people like Ben Grieve who had a .840ish OPS in his age 22-24 seasons and never broke .800 again in his career. Basically, there are a whole range of career paths. Trout may be a once-in-a-blue-moon-OMG-never-seen-before-talent but there have been similarly anointed players and not all of them have panned out.
Please keep in mind, my argument isn't really whether Trout is talented or not. The argument is a .900 OPS is damn hard for any player to do once but it does, on occasion, happen. However, as hard as that is to do, it's much much harder to sustain that level of production. If we're talking in terms of a Trout extension, there's little justifiable reason, at this point, to pay assuming Trout will continue to produce at even a .950 OPS level.
Well, not just security concerns, but compatibility concerns and business reasons. I imagine many companies buy a "Microsoft bundle" license at high volumes to get a discount on things like Windows, Office, etc. and "free" things like IE would be a part of that. Then, they just mass-install the bundle so that everything on a business computer is compatible. If you start adding other browsers into the picture, sometimes the add-ons and/or the struggle among the programs for RAM just causes headaches.
So basically, with our eyeball math, we're saying the Pirates BABIP against dropped from .311 to .278... and that it wasn't due to luck.
But then, elsewhere, we'll say a pitcher has been hit unlucky if they have a BABIP over .300.
So, just to go on a tangent, doesn't that mean that BABIP allowed for a pitcher should always be placed in context of a team's defensive efficiency with perhaps an adjustment for GB/FB ratio?
Or, in other words, an individual pitcher's BABIP against should be compared to the team's BABIP against, adjusting for GB/FB ratio, to determine whether that individual pitcher's BABIP is good/bad because of skill or luck?
Er, BABIP is .311
Still seems high.
Maybe I'm missing something... if 68.9% of balls in play are outs, that means BABIP is .321 right?
I agree. The comparison should be 2011 Rios vs 2012 Sox CF and 2011 Sox RF vs 2012 Rios.
Again, I don't like FRAA, but that's how you should compare apples-to-apples.
I use it from work. I imagine other companies, like mine, control what you can download and install.
I had problems replying in-line to comments or +/-'ing for the last 6+ months but I was able to get Chrome authorized on my computer and that helped.
There's no real good way to look this up but what was the FRAA for White Sox right fielders last year?
Ok, we know I don't like FRAA, but doesn't it compare positionally? It's not like Rios is magically a better defender, it's just that his FRAA last year was compared to an average center fielder and his FRAA this year is being compared to an average right fielder. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Rios's FRAA in right versus the right fielders the White Sox used last year?
It might be funny to watch Bolt tumble through a pop-up slide.
If you ask the question in two months, does Bryce Harper count? Or is that a clown question?
Everyone thought, after Alex Rodriguez's $250 million dollar contract with the Rangers in 2000, we'd see a $30 million per player soon after...
If you toss out stolen bases, I still don't think you could comp Trout to Henderson because Henderson was great at drawing walks. Hard to tell a guy hitting .340ish that he needs more walks, but if there is some BABIP regression, a better walk rate can help offset that.
I would agree (though I'd actually place it closer to $20 million), except that a .900 OPS plus defensive CF with plus speed would probably hit the market with a few thousand plate appearances under his belt, validating that production. Trout just doesn't have an established level of production yet. Last year he was horrid, this year he's been a beast. We don't know whether his true performance is either/or/somewhere in between. As I said earlier this year, even a .900 OPS is hard to do consistently. Alex Rodriguez's career OPS is .947, Pujols 1.027. Heck, Albert got off to a slow start, the last two years are considered "down years" and he had a .906 OPS last year and a .877 OPS this year. Granted they have to go through old age and those numbers will go down even more.
In some ways, this reminds me of the Joe Mauer hype over his power surge a few years ago and everyone saying he was going to remain a better player than Pujols. Turns out, that wasn't the case.
It's great what Trout has done so far and he is very damn promising, but he needs at least another season to "prove" what his level of production is.
If skill improvement is more than enough to cover for anything lost in luck, wouldn't it suggest that he'll be even more "elite-er" than what he is doing now? Are we suggesting that, based on a 1.008 OPS over 399 plate appearances that he'll be posting an OPS in the 1.100 or 1.200 range regularly as he matures?
Just think about what we're saying... There was already a discussion earlier in the year that Trout already is the most valuable Angels player this year based on 150 plate appearances, and will remain for this year, more valuable than Pujols. Also, that Trout will always produce more than Pujols does for the rest of their careers though Pujols had established a 1.000+ OPS talent level. Now, are we hyping him up even more and suggesting that Trout is the next Barry Bonds? Based on 400 plate appearances? Heck, even Alex Rodriguez didn't end up being the next Barry Bonds.
So which is it? Does his BABIP remain high because he's faster or because he hits for more power? Are we saying his BABIP is sustainable because, as his speed drops as he ages, his power will increase?
And no, I'm not saying that the rest of A-Rod's years will be bad or that Trout will pull a Corey Patterson... a .300/.350/.550 CF is still very valuable. I'm saying the Angels, if they sign him to a contract, should pay him like a .300/.350/.550 and not at his current rate of .346/.410/.598.
While we're on the subject of sustainabiltiy, how sustainable is his .398 BABIP? Sure, he's good, but he's also been a bit lucky. While Alex Rodriguez had a tremendous 1996, he didn't come close to that kind of production again until 2000. It is probably wrong to assume that Trout will remain "this good" and similarly, whatever the Angels do about a Trout contract shouldn't pay for this level of performance.
Well, if we actually want to talk about the subject at hand...
It'd be extremely hard to compare them. I would think that starting from a slide step, turning, running about 70 feet through dirt/mud then sliding takes different skills and is at a different speed than running an Olympic race on a "rubber?" track. Even the running shoes/cleats are different.
It might be interesting to see them race if they did it twice, once as a simulation of the basepaths with dirt and all, and the other on a race track.
Like, totally not cool!
Usian Bolt has won Olympic gold medals. So far, Hamilton hasn't even broke into the major leagues yet.
I wasn't giving it a title in All Caps. But if you want to call him a "good dodger manager", that's fine.
Tracy had a winning record for the Dodgers (427-383). He has a losing record since (135-189 with Pirates, (269-278).
Do we have any idea why he was good at one place, or bad at another? Do we know why he went from Manager of the Year in 2009 to missing the playoffs in 2010? Nope, "no quantifiable reason"... all we know is he is mysteriously qualified to be a manager.
Are you saying Ron Washington is the only one managing Josh Hamilton?
He has a personal assistant, a plethora of psychiatrists and counselors, physical trainers, a pastor. And yes, some of those are provided by the Rangers.
My overall point is if you give an average Joe Schmoe a team with good pitching, good offense and good defense, they'll most likely win.
You know, the Giants must have one of the more unique collections of first names in history. They have a Buster, Hunter, Melky, Madison, Marco, Gregor, Angel, and an Aubrey.
Even though some Wood retired, there's still a lot of Wood left and it's confusing to an old guy like me.
While I agree in theory, in practice, Soriano won't get any trade value sitting on the bench, he's the only right handed power hitter the Cubs have at this point and he is having a decent season so far. So, I guess LaHair sits until Soriano's taken via waivers.
Actually, I don't think I'm really underestimating it.
Whether it's a major league manager or a little league coach, you can be one without a degree.
Toss degrees aside and there have been many major league managers who had no experience managing and even some didn't have experience coaching. In fact, it seems the best qualification to be a manager is to be a baseball player, even if you never made the majors. Nowhere in "failed minor league baseball player" do you get experience dealing with the media. If you're a "failed minor league position player" you get no experience handling a bullpen. Also, if you're a "failed minor league player" your clubhouse street cred for "managing a clubhouse" can also be lacking.
Look at the recent hires just from the last year. Neither Ventura, Matheny or Sveum had major league _or_ minor league managing experience. Now, Ventura was a clubhouse rep and as the face of the White Sox, he had experience dealing with the media. Matheny also had a dash of it. Sveum? He