So, that would mean Jason's firstborn would be named Lindor Lindor-Parks?

Derek Jeter is a great defensive shortstop because millions of Yankees fans say so.

"A lot of defensive stats tell a confusing story after six weeks" Or six months.. or six years..

The thing that gets me is how many people on comment boards are saying no one would be using a spitter or scuffing the ball thanks to HD television...

The catchers might pay attention to that, though, and the catchers might influence what pitches get called.

Steve Blass works too. I've seen pitchers referred to as having Mackey Sasser disease though. On another topic, Reggie Sanders might've been a Hall of Famer if not for his persistent injuries.

So, 40% of players would have some problem with gay players but it's the same culture that spend the last decade injecting each other in the butt...

Ackley's been real hot the last month.

As a kid, the boating accident that killed Steve Olin and Tim Crews was pretty traumatic.

Thanks to me! :)

I understand that. I know Zack Grienke has social anxiety. Others such as Nick Esasky suffered from vertigo and other players have mental health issues related to concussions. But was Ankiel ever diagnosed with a mental issue, even as amorphous as "Mackey Sasser Disease"? The only thing I ever read was that he didn't think pitching was fun anymore. I know he had Tommy John surgery but that was three years after his playoff appearance.

Bbesity is a hell of a drug.

I'll echo a lot of the previous ones, from the Dickie Thons and Darryl Kiles to the Ken Griffeys... but I'll also add in Don Zimmer and Dave Dravecky. Also, I'm not sure if Ankiel really counts since it seemed mental issues derailed him more than injuries.

His slider was curving like those old Nintendo games.

WARP incorporates defense supposedly to increase the overall understanding of a player's value, but defensive value is so wonky that it throws off the player's value drastically.

I'm a little surprised stolen base percentages have been going up over time considering fielder's indifference has only been expanded in recent years.

Seems obvious, but it's hard to keep in mind that writers have "other lives". I confused some of Maury's music friends by talking baseball.

Thanks for looking, hope there's something in there that's relevant.

Regarding bullpens, does contact rate and swing percentage based on count vary based on the inning of the game? Perhaps, as a corollary, do hitters see more pitches per plate appearance vs starters or relievers?

I'm not sure if the Cubs pitchers have been bad fielders. Even ones like Sutcliffe, Wood and others were well regarded. I do know, however, that the Cubs had a history (until recently, when they revamped the drainage system) of letting the infield grass grow long which might have affected fielding. Then again, they also do have that self-destructive trait too.

I enjoyed the games in the late 80s, but then again, I was 12. :)

You know the A's park is bad when all you can compare it to is Candlestick... from twenty years ago...

Which part of Rizzo's defense has been bad?

Good to see the Cubs on the list. Bad to note that most of that WARP was accumulated with other teams.

Stolen bases are the new market inefficiency?

Love it when I fail my own math.

Regarding 100 BIP, isn't that the equivalent of about a season and a half of innings from a starting pitcher? Which is generally used as a gauge to see what's a trend? Maybe it might be interesting to take pitchers who have extremely low or extremely high BABIP over 300 innings last year and see how much that predicts their performance for this year?

The GM at least cares enough to get _something_ back.

The thing that I didn't quite understand. You say: "In addition to groundball/flyball/pull/opposite field tendencies, wouldn't BABIP vary by how well the pitcher in question was throwing on that day?" Then you say: "At first, I ran a logistic regression using only the previous 10 BIP as a predictor, controlling for the league BABIP for that year. And I got...nothing. There was no significant association between recent performance and what happened on the next ball in play. It looked like each ball in play, once it left the bat, was equally as likely to fall in as any other. Or at least like recent performance wasn't going to help me." 10 BIP is probably about 2-3 innings of work. I'm not sure the average number of BIP in a game but I'd think it'd be around 30-40. So, basically, 10 BIP is not predictive of BABIP, though 20 has some significance, though not as strong as 30, not as strong as 40, etc... To return to the original quote, is this saying BABIP does not do a good job at predicting performance on that one specific day? Is it also saying that BABIP does a better job at predicting performance over multiple starts (and might be pretty much useless for relievers over the course of two months). Then, thirdly, if BABIP is far from the league norm, which matters more.. the length of time the BABIP is measured at or the variance from the league norm (and the amount of "snap back"/regression to the mean)?

Those grids remind me of the Punnent's squares from genetics... Jose Fernandez is what happens when a good process mates with a bad outcome.

Stolen-base wise, Raines had a higher percentage of success than Rickey but I don't know, anecdotally, who was better at actual baserunning. Interesting how Henderson, the all-time leader in runs, stolen bases, and 2nd in walks didn't register with an all-time tool, though he had a lot of elite tools.

When EqBRR came out, I remember Juan Pierre being rated very highly.

What's most out of whack is his HR/9 rate. His other ratios like H/9, BB/9 are slightly worse than his career rates, but then again, you're comparing Coors vs a guy who spends half his starts in a pitcher's park like LA. But is 50 innings enough of a sample size? In 2010 his ERA in Coors was 2.45 over 2 starts, 11 innings with a 1.364 WHIP. In 2011 his ERA was 6.75 over 2 starts, 12 innings with a 1.417 WHIP. I'm not sure 50 innings is enough to conclusively say anything, unless you compare Kershaw's pitch selection and pitch movement between Coors and his other starts.

Also, I've seen Livan Hernandez throw at least one eephus pitch during the playoffs at Coors. Were those the pitches excluded for anomalous speed?

Few Rockies pitchers have featured sliders. Usually, its cut fastballs or sinkers then limiting walks and relying on a strong defense i.e. the Aaron Cooks/Jeff Francises of the world.

I clicked on this hoping to rip into the Rockies latest transactions with Colvin and Torrealba/Hernandez. Alas...

Out of curiosity how far is Lombardozzi from the Top 10 under 25? 15ish?

Generally, a player gets 700 a year in full-time duty and Trumbo and Bourjos were both under that. I don't think Pujols had much to do with Bourjos since he was going to play 1B while Morales DHed. The only way Pujols affected Bourjols is by forcing Trumbo to fight for playing time in the outfield. However, Wells and Hunter large contracts definitely seemed to make the Angels play them more than Bourjos, especially with Bourjols' slow 2012 start.

Do they get integrated into the playing time forecasts used for PECOTA?

The worst part of the Wells deal is it took at-bats away from players like Trumbo and Bourjols.

So that's how people get an 80 for makeup...

And "being able to translate it from batting practice to game power"

Then, wouldn't someone like Reggie Jackson and his light tower shots count? Or, can we do an average HR distance for more modern players?

I'm surprised Mantle got the nod. I was going to say Bonds was more deserving, but Pujols has a higher career SLG% than him. Pujols currently is 5th all time, Bonds is 6th, Mantle's 21st... and Babe Ruth's still #1 Sure, there are more ways to measure power than SLG%, but why Mantle?

John, you should know by now that the minusbats never come forth even on quality posts.

Who missed more? Wieters is only a few years into his career and you could look at Benson's first few years and squint and say "He could be a star". Same thing with Hermedia who was productive in his early years.

Oh I definitely agree that BP wasn't the only one projecting big things for Wieters. Maybe he's just this generation's version of Gregg Jeffries.. good player but not the superstar everyone thought he might be.

Still waiting for Wieters to be the next big thing.

I'll echo that. I originally came to BP for PECOTA and comparables and projections and VORP/WARP. I stay for the articles and insight but, sadly, haven't cared for WARP in awhile (though the comparables in this year's Annual were better than previous years). FRAA just seems to affect WARP so much that it's hard for me to really consider it anymore. Out of curiosity, full disclosure-wise, but when did BP become aware that bad data had entered the system?

Prior to this discussion, I thought "glove" included arm and range and I thought it was on a 20-80 scale. My interpretation of Jason's comment was that he was polling glove, i.e. ability to catch the ball, as a distinctly separate tool from arm or range. He used a term called "raw glove score" which seemed to have a different definition than "glove". It also used a "8" grade instead of a "20-80". So, yes, I thought that "raw glove" meant "basic ability to catch the ball" along the idea of "that guy has great range but stone hands" or "he doesn't get to much but he catches what he gets to". I can admit that I most likely read it incorrectly but thanks Brian for at least seeing part of the reason why I was confused.

I think Behemoth was referring to my comment and saying I'm usually "better than this".

So a 8 glove has nothing to do with range or arm? That's funny, because most of the description on the "How to identify it" for outfielders had to do with range, reaction, break, "glide", etc. Well gosh, if it's just the glove, that should be easy enough... just look at who has the highest fielding percentage (removing throwing errors and assists)... if you want a rough calc though and leave the throwing errors and assists in, Griffey's fielding percentage of .985 was only .002 better than other centerfielders of that time period.. which is "better" but not "All-Time Best" And hey, if we are just looking at glove, don't we need to reevaluate the other positions? Find someone with fewer passed balls per game than Johnny Bench? Maybe Casey Kotchman instead of Ozzie Smith for being able to catch such a high percentage of balls without making an error? Eh.. I'm sorry, I think the criteria of this evaluation changed partway through since I thought "glove" included "range".

What about an honorable mention for the Mythbusters episode where they launched a baseball at a steel plate so fast that the cover came off? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-DAFkXRhkk

I remember the recalculation of FRAA really affecting Ozzie Smith's JAWS score in one of Jay Jaffe's articles.

I agree with the idea that Griffey shouldn't have the all-time tool award. Devon White or early Andruw Jones (or even an Ichiro) would draw my vote. White and Ichiro were great fielders for much longer than Griffey was.

Actually, Kent's clause was "no riding motorcycles".. but when he broke his wrist riding a motorcyle, that's where he lied and said he was washing his truck. For a stroll down memory lane... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1171962-20-most-ridiculous-contract-clauses-and-incentives-in-mlb-history

The WBC is still too young to see what the full implications of it are. However, if countries are building stadiums and televising baseball, it makes sense that a kid in those countries could latch onto a favorite player from the WBC and start following their major league career. Being in camp is part of their job description, but so is public outreach. Signing autographs after games, going to fan conventions, playing in exhibitions in Japan, etc. Again, it's a salary position and it's not like players are not doing team-related activies once the season ends. Owners and teams do have legitimate concerns, but if the risk outweighed the reward, I'm sure they'd figure out some way to deny all player participation or limit it to just fringe players of their organization. They seem to handle the risks and think there are rewards just like they do for winter ball/Carribbean World Series or the AFL. Come to think of it, the only big difference between the WBC and winter ball is the timing, right?

Your name would've made this list if it was in the book :)

Here's an article by Ken Rosenthal about some of the ways the WBC is benefitting the teams and baseball in general, especially in the absence of baseball as an Olympic sport. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/world-baseball-classic-needs-to-be-embraced-by-gms-managers-players-crucial-to-growth-of-game-022813

Look at how much the Yankees have profited in terms of merchandising and player acquisition from their international reputation. Or, consider the Mariners. Though they had a Japanese owner, they didn't get a stream of Japanese players or fans until they signed Ichiro. They didn't sell much international merchandise until Ichiro, etc. Besides, when the players are training for the WBC they're going through some of the same hitting/pitching/fielding drills and general workouts that they would be doing with their major league teams. Baseball's not like football or basketball built on team rhythm or memorizing formations or the like... So players are still getting ready, they just aren't doing it "with their team".

Yeah and if a team bars a player from playing, it may lead to animosity when contract negotiations come up. Meanwhile, if a team lets a player play, it increases their happiness i.e. "job satistication". Besides, teams send players to the WBC for the marketing opportunity which could lead to merchandising and/or future international recruits.

#8 To see all the people confused about Andruw Jones playing on the Dutch team.

Um, what's this? I mean, I can google it.. but what's this? Just a list of interesting names?

In many jobs, you get paid a salary and are still allowed to do things like attend conferences and/or publish papers that might not necessarily be work-related but are related to your industry. Same concept with baseball. Playing in the WBC doesn't directly help their team but it does help the sport and also helps the player grow. It's little different than Apple sending a programmer to an IT conference.

I'd be happy if the weather forecasts were 30% accurate in Denver...

Tried to do a Frankenstein anagram but I was missing a T and a N

As I recall, the replacement player level was recalculated two to three years ago just because of new ballparks opening and the decline in offense from the 90s.

No one said Willie played every position well :)

I thought the definition of replacement player was basically a quad-A player or minor league free agent. I don't remember bench players ever being part of the equation. Technically, aren't those bench players generally better than the quad-A/freely available talent anyway?

And you forgot all submissions must be via email

Is there a specific theme for the podcast like minor leaguers, predictions, etc?

Nope. Werth had a higher TAv than Harper in 2012 and nothing Werth did was out of his career norm, but PECOTA's expecting a regression for Harper.

To be fair, I've had problems with your writing style and jargon before. However, I've enjoyed the Prospects series and haven't had any issues with style/jargon.

On the flipside, he doesn't party and supposedly has a strong work ethic. There are 20 year olds doing all kinds of crazy things to impress college (or minor league) coaches or "living the high life".

If you acquire rookies and, thus, have them under team control for longer, you should have a better shot at getting more WARP. As an aside, that Transaction Analysis brings back memories. Loria dumping Delgado and crying about a new stadium, Aaron Rowand being referred to as a center fielder, the bust of the BJ Ryan deal, etc.

Assume for a second it's better to hit your best hitter in the #2 slot. It's quite possible that, as of today, Werth is a better hitter than Harper.

The Orioles would have to really beat up on the Astros to get to 96 wins.. The problem is, other teams will be beating up on the Astros too.

Except they were probably also facing pitchers or hitters who were also using.. if "everyone" is using PEDs, and if you assume PEDs help someone perform better, then does everyone get a boost to performance if someone facing them is also using PEDs and driving down their performance?

Ok thanks for the info.

Don't worry, I didn't know about it offhand hence my first comment :)

"The Giants are like the Moneyball A's. They developed great, cheap pitching and got enough of an offense to win games."

Shouldn't organizations factor in more? Consider Nick Castellanos who, by many accounts, is at least adequate defensively at third base. But, he's been moved to the outfield through no real fault of his own, but because the Tigers moved Miguel Cabrera over. Would Castellanos be higher than #37 if not for the change?

Very good point, thanks.

There was a time, though, when people didn't like Mike Trout either. But yeah, Brown didn't have a good 2012.

Most major leaguers do put in gym work though. If they sat around playing video games, they wouldn't stay in the major leagues long. Ask Joel Zumaya.

First person suspended for PEDs - Alex Sanchez, 6 career home runs and a SLG of .372 Many of the people "caught" were utility players, middle relievers, fringe major leaguers, etc. Quite a few pitchers in the bunch too.

The Marlins should've gotten a mention for worst offseason moves...

I think this one's referring to Ryan Howard's tweet to vote Carlos Ruiz to the All Star game. "Let's get choice to the allstar. Everyone needs to cot for choice. Let's go, let's go let's go. Vote Carlos Ruiz" https://twitter.com/ryanhoward/status/210110525114294272

If you text or tweet from your smartphone/iDevice, autocorrect will sometimes suggest words that have completely different meanings than what you are trying to type. For example, if you type "cya" as in "goodbye", it'll autocorrect to "cyanide".

Maybe if we had a degree in robotics, we can bypass the 55 lb requirement.

Regarding the Royals, I told one of my friends who is a huge Royals fan to bet $50 each year for next of the five years that the Royals will be in the playoffs. I think he said Vegas had their odds at 12:1 and they've got to be better than that.

I'm actually qualified for that one but maybe they read my blog post about Matt LaPorta...

I remember, around this time last year, all the buzz surrounding Gary Brown.

-5? Did I step on someone's cat or are people disliking the discussion that much?

I did a double-take at "McBride came back to put up a 2.76 ERA in 153 1/3 innings in the first half" and thought it was a typo. Ah, the days if 300 IP seasons.

Well, isn't WARP also a counting stat so relievers, because they throw less innings, generally have less WARP?

"We do this because changes in performance are more frequent and more dramatic than changes in talent." I'm going to laminate that quote. And thanks for taking the time to explain all this.

In addition, if Harper isn't appearing to perform as well as last year because he's good but the luck isn't breaking his way in 2013 like it did in 2012, he's more likely to get demoted or benched which has an additional chance of hurting his performance.

So, in my other post, I say: #1 Players who debut as a teeanger tend get better. #2 Trout, Griffey and Upton are much different comparables than teenagers who washed out of MLB. Or, if those assumptions are untrue, does PECOTA just project that all 20 year olds will get worse/have a sophomore slump? So, what you're saying is my assumptions are untrue and that PECOTA, in general, has skepticism built into it for young players who overperform as teenagers. Thus Year 2 "looks" like a sophomore slump as the loss of performance due to good luck outweighs the Year 2 increase in talent. And, in general, all "young" year 2 players are likely to regress... If that is correct, how does PECOTA operate differently for minor leaguers?

Nate Silver also said that a decade ago. My understanding is that, back then, PECOTA was a massive spreadsheet of calculations. Colin's heavily revamped it since then (and using SQL?) so that statement might no longer apply...

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend Nick Johnson. I'd apologize to him personally, but he probably strained his ego.

Some day, I'd love to see a rumor scorecard to see how often people like Bowden are on the mark...

That might not have happened if you could edit your comments. Maybe you can talk to someone at BP about it? :)

Which I would buy, except they dug themselves the PR hole in the first place with bad strategy. Whether it's targeting the wrong players or not sticking to a plan for more than half a season, it is their fault for making those strategic decisions. They could've spent that money on something other than a closer, an older pitcher and an injury-riddled shortstop. Or, having chosen to do so, kept with them for more than a year. That they were able to get some talent in return doesn't excuse the idea that they put themselves in a position where they, at best, thought they weren't a contender and _must_ have a fire sale.

The outliers are always hard to play with. You're in a bit of a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't", kind of like with the Wieters projections. As for myself, whether Harper is projected to regress or not is a bit of a moot point to me. It's more a question of why. I understand the Y > X argument so I guess the real question is why the regression to the mean is more of an influence than Harper's unusual talent. We don't do the same kind of thing with minor league projections, right? A 18 year old who dominates AA and is supposed to repeat AA isn't projected to regress as a 19 year old, correct? Granted, MLB is different, but we don't chalk up all of the 18 year old's success at AA to luck, right? I guess, if we were talking about someone like Wil Myers who has talent but isn't considered as unique as Harper, it probably would be a different discussion.

Jordan playing baseball pissed me off. I'm not a basketball fan, but the arrogance with how he approaced baseball upset me. Early on, he said something to the effect of "I haven't played in awhile so I'll start off slow in AAA" without appreciating there are tons of aspiring minor leaguers who never get to AAA. He also blamed his lack of success on the gym facilities in Birmingham when he made enough money to build a gym in Chicago and airlift it out to Alabama.

On that note, Gamel (as well as Braun) were third basemen.

Any news on Lohse btw?

Yes they were.. and Ramon was never bad.. perhaps league average if not better, just injury-plagued. In many ways, the Martinezes reminded me of the Perezes.. the late Pascual, Melido, etc.

But, was he good because of luck or because of skill/talent compared to the "average" 20 year old player?

Closers tend to help with Ks because most closers strike out around a batter and inning and most starting pitchers don't. They may not give you as many Ks, but even a mediocre closer can rack up more Ks per auction dollar spent than a good starter.

I understand there's a baseline forecast and that comparables help to guide it. I guess the assumptions I am making in my mind are... #1 Players who debut as a teeanger tend get better. #2 Trout, Griffey and Upton are much different comparables than teenagers who washed out of MLB. Or, if those assumptions are untrue, does PECOTA just project that all 20 year olds will get worse/have a sophomore slump? I guess, as a corrollary, when was the last time PECOTA projected that a player who debuted as a teenager would improve at age 20?

And now that he's in Canada, he'll have to pick up another language so he can understand what people are saying about him.

Hudson, you could sell snakeoil to the devil... or Florida residents a new ballpark. I just hope you don't seriously believe the Marlins are better off.

So... Trout and Griffey are Harper's best comparables. Trout had a great sophomore season and Griffey improved throughout his career, but Harper is going to regress to the mean... whatever the mean of a 20 year old is...

The way the Biogenesis stuff is being reported, especially by ESPN, is fishy. It's like they're releasing a page of "evidence" or a leak a day at a time just to keep the pot stirred.

Might be interesting to see if certain injuries affect certain aspects of pitching performance. For example, do certain types of shoulder injuries lead to worse BB/9 rates, etc.

But we're talking about a guy with an injury history which might affect his 20/20ness and a sub-.250 batting average. Lombardozzi did get 43 starts on the days that Desmond played shortstop. Potentially, one cold streak by Desmond could force the issue or a promotion for Rendon.

It'd be interesting to see how the first ten picks of each draft were budgeted and compared to the rest of the draft. i.e. are there some positions that tend to get more expensive (like closers?) as the options are reduced? P.S. Jeff Ma... curse you for killing ProTrade.

What I like about Ross is how few home runs he gives up in addition to his good control/command profile.

Right, but finding or making a first baseman should be easier than finding a third baseman. Case-in-point Scott Hatteberg.

Remember, the A's went into last year with Josh Donaldson moving from catcher to 3B and he didn't hit a lick early on, hence the Inge experiment. The A's will probably do some other kind of stopgap and, if it doesn't work, troll the waiver wire.

Still, don't you have to take a starter like Kendrick over someone without a spot (Profar) and someone with an injury and multiple challengers (Espinosa)?

"The club once traded the most productive offensive outfield in the National League—Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady" Those were different circumstances. Only Bay, though injured, was a star and the Pirates had no minor league depth and little major league talent. They only had one starter (Maholm) with an ERA less than 4.50(!). Nady and Bay were also turning 30 and there were doubts McLouth could repeat his performance (which he never did). Also, if I remember right, the new ownership just came in. Why not trade parts, especially people like Nady, at the top of their value, to rebuild?

Heck for those 9 total injuries, he missed a total of 10 games with day-to-day injuries. In 2011, he missed 15 games, 14 to the DL. One game in 2010, 17 in 2009. We're not talking Nick Johnson here.

Bleck. I like Fowler.. and on top of that, the reason he never gets 500 AB is the Rockies keep demoting him to the minors and/or benching him for a one week slump just like they did with Tulowitzki, Iannetta, Rosario, etc.

This rocked for me last year. As an aside, I also had Tim Collins on my Scoresheet team ;) Didn't protect him as a keeper though...

The ringer was easier for me to pick out because it had a different kind of blue highlight :)

My favorite baseball-themed father-dad scene in a movie is from Frequency where Dennis Quaid and John Cavaziel catch up, talking about the World Series, the McGwire/Sosa home run chase etc. On that note, I think 61* is an underrated baseball movie and one of my personal favorites.

Wouldn't the 160 innings agreement have come up in a conversations between the Nationals and Zimmerman's agent? I'd hope (though I wouldn't know) that there'd be a gentleman's agreement not to use it against the player in arbitration.

Until last year, I always used the comps. If I saw a player compared to Alfonso Soriano (or, previously, Andre Dawson), I had a good idea what kind of hitter they'd be.

Last time I did, I split the last two down the middle. Still, if you wanted a way to group players based on some psychological traits, that might be one way to do it.

INFJ? :)

How did the Astros moving to the AL affect the expected wins for the AL and NL teams?

Can players and/or clubs use a planned change of positions in their arbitration argument? What prevents a club from saying "Joe might be worth $5 million, but next year, he'll be in our bullpen so he should be paid less."

Ya know, that might be an interesting way to measure it. Many people in high school take things like the Myers-Briggs Personality tests. It'd be interesting to see if there are correlations between athletes personalty types and performance.

Wouldnt his comps be pretty limited just because you don't run into many outfielders that young?

Do you really need to survey major league teams? Can't you glean some directional data from high school, college and minor league teams?

Chemistry's a bit like defense. We're sure it exists, just not sure how to precisely measure it.

I think Dickey's going to be a bit like Ichiro.. just that weird type of player with no real comparables that PECOTA has problems projecting.

First you misread my post and assumed I agreed with you. Then you started insulting me. And you're still hung up on something that happened 15 years ago. Heck I'm a Cubs fan and realize that the Cubs current situation isn't directly related to Greg Maddux being let go before his Cy Young situation. All in all, you lack understanding and seem to want to pick a fight. So, I'll prefer to be a fungus and stop talking to you on this thread.

Silly stupid question. Now that we have all these pitch F/X charts showing hitters hot zones etc, does PECOTA incorporate any of that into their projections and how it relates to the pitchers in the league? For example, does it recalculate projections for hitters in the NL West because Greinke joined the division, etc.

It's interesting that all these contracts (Napoli, Liriano,Felix, etc) have been changing due to injuries. I can't recall when so many have been handled like that before.

I bring them up because they were fan favorites and losing them did hurt the fan base. Only having two winning seasons in the last nine years (2004-2012) hasn't helped. I thought about Dan Wilson, but I'm pretty sure if I had added him, you would've laughed at that. Heck I'm pretty sure there are a few Gil Meche or Carlos Guillen fans but I didn't include them either. And yes, I know a bit about the Mariners. I used to live in Oregon which gets Seattle broadcasts, been to Safeco a few times (and even attended a get-together there with Jonah Keri, Rob Neyer, Derek Zumsteg and a few others) and read the USS Mariner. I wouldn't call myself a Mariners expert, especially since I moved to Denver in 2008, but they're in the Top 10 of teams I'm familiar with. And btw, there's always the chance that Felix gets traded so he may end up winning a World Series for someone else. But, again, to sum up: 1. Randy's situation wasn't the same as Felix's 2. There've been more important and more recent things than have affected the Mariners' fan base since Randy's departure fifteen years ago. 3. As a Mariners' fan, you should know #1 and #2. If not, I suggest you use baseball-reference instead of Wikipedia.

"but because of Randy this fan base needed this Felix deal." Since Randy left the Mariners in 1998, the Mariners have lost: Stars: Ken Griffey Jr (twice) Alex Rodriguez Ichiro Suzuki Fan Favorites: Jay Buhner Mike Cameron Freddy Garcia Jamie Moyer Kazuhiro Sasaki I'm pretty sure Mariner fans have things more recent than Randy Johnson's departure to be sad about.

In some dictionaries, gel means jell. From merriam-webster.com 2gel intransitive verb gelled,gel·ling Definition of GEL 1 : to change into or take on the form of a gel : set 2 : jell 2 — gel·able adjective Examples of GEL The mixture will gel as it cools. Our plans are finally starting to gel.

I don't really like the way the Angels have yanked Bourjols around. If you take Trout out of the equation, the Angels have a bad history at developing anything other than pitching and middle infielders.

Maybe he's improved. Crack out the stopwatches and time him again? And again... And again :)

Um, you just said you're glad they're not repeating the same mistake. You said they let Johnson go nine years too early. I was highly disagreeing with your point that Johnson and Felix's situation were the same.

Randy Johnson was 33 at the time and Felix is 26. Completely different situations regarding risk. And the Mariners did get good trade value for him (Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama).

I think the funny faces gif was Ryan Theriot's impression of Malcolm Reynolds.

Out of curiosity, are there any studies that show that pitchers who throw a lot of innings in pitcher's parks tend to remain healthier than pitchers who throw in non-pitchers parks? I mean, sure Felix throws a lot of innings, but it's not like he's racking up 140+ pitch count games with the bases loaded in Coors Field, right?

He also challenged Shea Hillenbrand to a fight.

And the tunnel from the dugout... http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2556925

Good point. Though I still think Pujols and Hamilton will get along splendidly.

If you're referring to my comment, I didn't mean to say MLB was falsifying PEDs. I'm saying I'm not sure yet whether I believe the Miami newspaper's report and/or how it has interpreted the "evidence".

From what I understand, players and clubs prefer a midpoint if possible just because the arbitration hearings can lead to bad feelings.

I believe Hamilton and Pujols will actually get along immensely. They are both devoutly passionate Christians and I could see Pujols taking Hamilton under his wing and providing extra support to keep him sober.

Well, I think of a blooper as more of an arcing pop fly that just happened to land in a place where people aren't... kind of like the last gif. The first gif was more of a line drive.

Is the first gif really that much of a blooper? Looks like a pretty standard Texas Leaguer.

I'm talking the Comcast SportsNet one.

I'm not sure how much I'm buying this Miami clinic. Cabrera was already caught and loses nothing to confessing more, yet doesn't. Apparently the Miami paper that broke the story is being evasive about handing a copy of their evidence over to MLB. And, yet again, spring training is about to start and a magical PED story breaks right before it just as it has every year for the last 5+ years...

As an aside, I also find it interesting that they didn't have to explain what Baseball Prospectus is.

You know the video's good when it has an ad in front of it.

I can imagine the defense too. "Your honor, I had already responded on Twitter and I was limited to 140 characters."

Um.. if he corked his bat to make it look like he is a better hitter, it is a reasonable possibility that he might've done other things to cheat. Besides, if his brother lied about/forged his age, that means Wilton was probably aware of the idea and how to do it. So yes, they do have to do with each other.

We're also talking about a player who corked his bat... so its possible he also lied about his age. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilton_Guerrero

I'm glad it came back. I read it weekly.

If you're going to Tweet your innocence, why pay for agents and lawyers?

Basically, for a mid 90s comparison, it's like saying Pedro Martinez is an ace and Tom Glavine's a #2.

Except Strasburg didn't have the heavy workloads or the traumatic collisions and still needed Tommy John...

I thought WAR was supposed to normalize between league difficulty differences. According to BP, Andrus is worth 0.5 wins more. Now, Andrus may have more potential value for doing what he did at a younger age and at a "skill position", but if we're using BP WAR as a metric, the actual value difference is just 0.5, not 0.5 + potential. Perceived or forecasted value may be 0.5 + potential, but not the actual value. All things considered, though, it's also a little early to do entire career comparisons based on just four seasons. Goofy? You could go to any year of any draft and find an All-Star that was drafted before a Hall of Famer. Similarly, you could find a solid major leaguer who was drafted after a bunch of busted prospects. That doesn't mean that All Star or that solid major leaguer wasn't underrated. Part of the issue just might be that there are more pitchers than starting shortstops. Andrus gets compared to just 29 other players. Cain gets compared to 150 pitchers. For many teams, I'd think Cain would be the ace. Lincecum's 2013 hiccup aside, Cain's usually the #2 to Lincecum. *mumbles to himself* Heck, if we use WAR, I don't think Cain even breaks the top 25 for 2012. Maybe my perception of him is just better because of his low ERA and WHIP in a pitcher's park. Though I wonder why my eyes aren't as rosy for Andrus in a hitter's park... so maybe I'm overvaluing Cain in general when studs like Kyle Lohse out-WARP him... Anyway, I do agree with your last paragraph. #2 isn't a knock.

How dare you mention Kotchman and Lee in the same paragraph in a positive light! A pox on your spreadsheet!

Whenever is someone is compared to Stephen Strasburg, I compare them to Mark Prior, then I expect the Tommy John surgery and get scared.

Hey Andrus is definitely a positive asset. However, if we play the WARP game, the difference between Andrus and Cain is 0.5 WARP over the last four years in Andrus's favor. He's also had a declining FRAA FWIW. I'm just saying Andrus isn't clearly better than Cain and it may come down to a matter of taste.

Because WAR counts defense and defense can be all over the map.

Well, based on that list, I'd still take Cain over half of them especially considering some of their durability issues. As an aside, I'd take Braun, McCutchen and Fielder easily before Cain. Hamles and Cain is almost a wash. Now, Cain might not have the Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez low WHIP, insane K/9 type of numbers... But he's been very durable for quite a few years with a high level of performance. The moral of the story is that, in reference to Shelby Miller, being projected as a #2 is not a death sentence.

Some statheads are still waiting for Roberto Petagine to get a starting gig.

Underrated as both a prospect and as a major leaguer.

Just means the votes don't matter too much.

Might be interesting some day to see an article on which organizations do best at finding talent, which do best at developing pitchers, hitters, fielders, etc. Perhaps identify the kinds of things they do. For example, what do the Braves do that helps them continually churn out pitching prospects that usually perform around league average and are durable?

For a long time, people thought Matt Cain was also a number 2. He was underrated for a very long time.

People thought Leo Mazzone was a Hall of Famer until he left Bobby Cox.

I think Brett Jackson's walk rate will also help offset his strikeouts. Besides Matt Adams, isn't Kolten Wong considered close? Wouldn't be the first time the Cardinals promoted someone from AA.

Whenever I see multiple grades, I always think of Out of the Park :) Thanks for the reply.

Nick Johnson was never bad so it's not like he was a forecasting bust or didn't produce. He was just horrible at staying healthy. As the BP Annual said in 2010 about Nick, staying healthy is also a skill/tool.

I'm surprised an 8 fastball has to do with velocity and not with control or command. Shouldn't it also have something to do with movement? I thought the implication from the tool greades BP gives in their minor league reviews when looking at curveballs and changeups implies not just velocity, but movement, control and command.

... and a truckful of New Coke to kids in the suburbs to encourage them not to drink soda.

Along the vein of the Shelley Duncan Stand Up to Cancer, there should be a donation to stop sexual assault/trafficking for each inning R.A. Dickey pitches.

Dream job.

Very well said.

Not sure why you didn't reply in-line. I just remember past years where people were griping that 85% wasn't good enough. There'd be a bunch of people saying "What about the 'Deadly Accurate'-ness of PECOTA?" Then there's griping about player comments, FRAA, comparables, PECOTA, etc (some of the griping, I'll admit, I am guilty of). Personally, I'm pretty happy with how the winter has gone. Generally, BP goes quiet after the Winter meetings to focus on the Annual, maybe posting two or three articles a day. There's been a ton of good winter content. I think it's worth a try to wait for PECOTA to be as accurate as possible. As you yourself say, many teams fine tune their preparations in late February or early March and we're not even into early February yet.

I kept reading it as "Carlos Lee" as well.

If you care more about timing than precision, why go to a statistician site?

In fact, I'll call it now. Rosario will bat .200 in April (though with fine power numbers) and will get benched and then demoted by June for a month or two, just like Iannetta, Fowler, Tulowitzki, etc.

There go the Rockies in their perpetual attempt to bench rookie catchers...

Yep I know. Usually the PECOTA in the Annual is revised once the depth charts come out. Has the logic on the comparable players improved?

No, never...

The team should probably be aware... but according to their pitch f/x hit charts and TAv, they have different hot zones/swings. BJ tends to do better on anything over the plate, in, or low. Justin's better with high strikes. Even with whiff rate, Justin appears to have better plate coverage than BJ since BJ tends to swing and miss on high pitches more often. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/hitter_cards/hitter_card.php?player=457708&inf=&month=&year=&throws=&pi_type=&report=tav&color=rel&normType=R http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/hitter_cards/hitter_card.php?player=425834&inf=&month=&year=&throws=&pi_type=&report=tav&color=rel&normType=R

Outfielders tend to do more running than first basemen too...

The basic idea I was trying to convey was that the Cleveland Indians were called the Indians before India existed as a country.

India as a country didn't really exist until 1947. India had a history of forming up from individual kingdoms, then being conquered/controlled by one power or another (Persians, English, etc) and broken up again. Ironically, the Cleveland Indians have had their nickname for longer than India's been an official country ;)

As I recall from last year, PECOTA in the Annual didn't match the PECOTA that was released on the spreadsheet. Then, the spreadsheet had to get adjusted later because there were issues with relievers and depth charts in general.. so the "correct" PECOTA wasn't really finalized until early/mid February.

The Chicago Bears should be renamed because, from what I understand, they aren't all gay players.

If you're offended by a single article, I suggest you read the title of the article before clicking on it next time...wasn't it pretty evident what this post was about just from the title?

You must've missed "Talk Like a Pirate" day. They're around. Of course, it's hard to understand what they say so it's hard to tell if they are offended or not.

I'm surprised the umpire can even hear that much considering that the crowd starts yelling like crazy once a manager starts arguing with an umpire.

Remember the flak I got when I did it for BP Idol?

I'm not sure how similar their hitting styles are, but as a bit of an analogy, left handed hitters still get hits off of left handed pitchers. Pitchers still have to execute pitches and even if a pitcher knows where the hole in Upton's swing is, they still have to get the pitch there.

I prefer "better". The last few years have been problematic. Besides, even with the early releases, they were usually rereleased within a few weeks anyway.

A very nice write up. That three hour conversation and then the continuation at the signing sounds like it was fascinating.

Wonder which managers tended to swear the most.

Transcribing speech is a pain.

The thing about Gordon is that, even when he was bad offensively, he still maintained a good walk and strikeout rate. Young doesn't really have any more secondary skills besides middling power.

The Cubs rumors were funny and didn't seem all that huge. Theo: Hey Kevin, got the note from my secretary that you called me. So you want to trade Upton? Kevin: Yes. I want Starlin Castro. Theo: *click*

Nine Jose Oquendos wouldn't be that bad, at least from a positional flexibility standpoint

In hindsight, what an interesting draft with some people already flamed out and others already stars.

"OK Mark, don't tell me you didn't see the pitch because Buck saw it. And Buck, don't tell me you didn't hear the pitch because Mark heard it. So, since one of you saw it and one of you heard it, between the two of you, you shouldn't have struck out!" - In the spirit of "See No Evil, Hear No Evil" with Richard Pryor and Gene Wilder.

It's probably Zdurineck's last gasp. If the Mariners don't turn it around, he won't be around come 2014. That's why you had that crazy Upton proposal.

Reposting probably doesn't help.. besides, most people know that when a thread gets enough minuses to be minimized, it tends to stand out and get more attention.

The first time is supposed to be special but I think twitter is turning you into a slut.

Overall numbers, Victor would probably do better but Gardner's more of a wild card factor since he hasnt had as much consistent playing time.

You get disqualified from the award after ten nominations.

Brett Gardner?

David Schoenfield said there was a tweet that Soriano has the third lowest WHIP among pitchers who threw at least 500 innings since 1920. Not sure if that's true, though I did find Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner with lower WHIPs.

Likewise. And yeah, I know about the membership numbers :)

I'm still not sure why they replaced the dugout phones with cellphones. Wouldn't a tablet with a camera make more sense so that managers could see warmup status etc?

andrews, I'm not sure how long you've been with BP, but I do know I've commented thousands of times more than you have and I often dissent. I even posted once during BP Idol whether people wanted me to stop commenting just because I was posting so much. I've vehemently disagreed with authors, points of view, and in the past, complained publicly about where BP seemed to be headed. Never was I asked to cancel my subscription. There are room for dissenters, you aren't the first, and definitely won't be the last. That being said, don't confuse people saying "slow down!" with people disagreeing with your view. You've started up a lot of posts within this thread and you haven't always replied in line. It is hard to follow what you are saying since one thought will be in one thread, then continued in another thread. If anything, people aren't objecting to your views as much as they are objecting with the way you've gone about it. So, feel free to dissent, but try to be more concise about it.

I wouldn't call what andrews said as repetitive or, worse, spam. He did spend time typing up his thoughts and it's not like he copied and pasted the same text over and over again. Besides, getting minused constantly adds to the frustration and prompts more posting. andrews really hasn't said anything "worse" than anyone else has said. If you are suggesting he gets muted or his subscription gets cancelled, I think that sets a dangerous precedent. That being said, both things you listed are problems and both appear to be resolved as of now... perhaps everyone even learned a bit from it.

His job isn't to report the news but to provide entertainment.

Don't confuse my perceptions with the perceptions of the members of the BBWAA. I'm saying, if the writers vote on character and their vote is "locked in", then there's a chance they may feel wronged if something leaks out later. Note that a lot of the argument for Kirby Puckett had to do with his character. Also, yeah, I saw "Cobb" but there are arguments that most of it was made up by Al Stump. Some argue he wasn't racist and that the media only portrayed him as racist after he died. http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/2004/05/21/let_416281.shtml http://bleacherreport.com/articles/43506-ty-cobb-was-not-a-racist http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/07/19/legacy-of-a-jerk-full-transcript/

The Mariners were sure going to give up a lot. Then again, I can understand why Upton would reject the trade since his numbers would probably suffer in Safeco.

Locking a vote sounds neat, but I can picture it causing problems. Let's say I voted for a guy the first year he was eligible and, a few years down, it's revealed he took steroids or beat his wife or something. I wouldn't be able to change my vote? Isn't that kind of why they have people on the ballot for 15 years, to allow writers to evaluate them?

I'll just be selfish and say I'm glad Andre Dawson got in before this mess began.

It's always the quiet ones.

Five years wasn't enough time to get past the emotional bias of the steroid era.

These are not the voters you are looking for.

I just read 1 "new" comment that was nothing but whining. :)

I don't predict when the gun will fire until PECOTA comes out, by law. :)

Writers will do it on occasion for someone who they considered were a class act, who made themselves available for interviews, etc. It's just a token acknowldgement of their career. I don't have a problem with it.

Doesn't seem like many BBWAA writers are aware of what goes on besides their local paper. I doubt sabremetrics matters to most of them. If sabremetrics is really affecting things and hurting Morris, it should have helped Lofton and David Wells to more than 5% of the vote.

Well, it's more evidence than no one saying it... not saying I believe Pearlmen or "know" Piazza did steroids, just trying to give amazin a link he asked for.

Jeff Pearlmen wrote about it in his book on Roger Clemens. "The portions about Piazza have received the most press leading up to the book’s release, March 24. Deadspin first published excerpts about Piazza. As the hundreds of major league ballplayers who turned to performance-enhancing drugs throughout the 1990s did their absolute best to keep the media at arm's length, Piazza took the opposite approach. According to several sources, when the subject of performance enhancing was broached with reporters he especially trusted, Piazza fessed up. "Sure, I use," he told one. "But in limited doses, and not all that often." (Piazza has denied using performance-enhancing drugs, but there has always been speculation.) Whether or not it was Piazza's intent, the tactic was brilliant: By letting the media know, of the record, Piazza made the information that much harder to report. Writers saw his bulging muscles, his acne-covered back. They certainly heard the under-the-breath comments from other major league players, some who considered Piazza's success to be 100 percent chemically delivered. At least two former Major League players, one being Reggie Jefferson (another was not named), were quoted as saying they were sure that Piazza used steroids. "He's a guy who did it, and everybody knows it," says Reggie Jefferson, the longtime major league first baseman. "It's amazing how all these names, like Roger Clemens, are brought up, yet Mike Piazza goes untouched." "There was nothing more obvious than Mike on steroids," says another major league veteran who played against Piazza for years. "Everyone talked about it, everyone knew it. Guys on my team, guys on the Mets. A lot of us came up playing against Mike, so we knew what he looked like back in the day. Frankly, he sucked on the field. Just sucked. After his body changed, he was entirely different. 'Power from nowhere,' we called it." When asked, on a scale of 1 to 10, to grade the odds that Piazza had used performance enhancers, the player doesn't pause. "A 12," he says. "Maybe a 13." " http://thesteroidera.blogspot.com/2009/03/mike-piazza-steroids-allegations.html

I didn't do it. Thought about trying once but I thought it would make me cranky.

Heh :)

Has a thread ever been shut down, out of curiosity?

Pick someone who spent most of their career in the Negro Leagues, for starters and didn't get a single vote because of the color barrier. Pick a racist who did get a vote. Pick someone who beat their wife or cheated on their wife. Or hey, if you want to stick to on-field performance, check out people like Tommy Thevenow or Moe Berg. Check out the link below. http://mlb.sbnation.com/2013/1/8/3848552/hall-of-fame-voting-history

We don't make predictions until PECOTA comes out, by law. Then we predict how long it'll take depth charts to come out.

Nice to see you bought yourself a copy since nothing you said is all that original.

On the subject of other snubs... If Jack Morris is getting so much support, David Wells should've gotten more than 5 votes.

Most youngsters don't care about baseball. Even more don't care about the Hall of Fame. Even more still cheat on their spelling tests.

Um, of all the courtesy votes and non-votes the BBWAA have done in the 36 years I've been alive, Aaron Sele is nowhere near the worst vote/nonvote.

Ironic that Canseco gets blackballed for steroids and, a decade later, Lofton gets overlooked because of steroids.

snibirsh rears its minushead once again.

While we're on the subject of PEDs, I find it interesting how McGwire has lingered around while Canseco was pretty quickly blackballed from the voting.

My favorite HOF candidate memory, in Baseball Prospectus context, was when Julio Franco had "Galapagos Turtle" as one of his comparables in a BP Annual.

Enjoyed the Lofton tribute. I also always had a bit of a special place for David Wells. He was a mainstay on my fantasy team for years and I always liked him as a player (and even, at times, as a person).

Its a bit of a crock anyway. Many of the voting writers now "banning" PED users from the Hall of Fame made their living writing about how the home run chase was great for baseball, sometimes even turning a blind eye to actually reporting on PEDs. Heck, the "Chicks Dig the Long Ball" commercial even had a creatine scene in there so it's not like people weren't thinking about PEDs.

HIs career might also be summed up as racking up the most frequent flyer mileage while on the disabled list.

I think no one will get in this year. The voters not voting for PED users will deny Bonds/Clemens and others like Biggio etc probably aren't famous enough for the casual BBWAA voter to even remember. 2014 will be real interesting too with a lot of good players who were not attached to PEDs (Thomas, Maddux, Glavine) etc. up for election with a lot of holdovers gumming up the ballot.

PED stands for Performance Enhancing Drug.. all PEDs affect performance including amphetamines. In addition, some things not labeled PEDs or are even called drugs can enhance performance such as caffeine, energy drinks, vitamins, etc.

Well, it's posted now.

Usually ESPN posts a webpage before the results saying who among their staff voted for who but this year they didn't.

It is a very nice park unless you're a cigarette smoker. Good variety of food too. They also do a fireworks show on Fourth of July weekend and on the last homestand of the year which is awesome and they allow the fans on the field to lay on the grass and watch it.

Oh and that event in 2007 just had BP writers, no one from the Rockies office. The BP Annual had just released though, so maybe it was just a book tour. I do remember the event had a podcast too.

I'd feel confident I could get 10-15 that I know, but 50 by myself might be optimistic unless I resorted to random Facebook and Craigslist posts. Can you post a thread here to see if there is any interest? Btw that past event had Dan Fox, Christina Kahrl and Nate Silver.

I know the last event was in 2007 at the Tattered Cover. I think there was about 30 people. I'm not sure how many Colorado people are still subscribed to BP. How big is the minimum?

Actually, it probably would've made the cut two years ago because John was one of the managing editors then. Nonetheless, I don't think there's wrong with posting a wider variety of viewpoints and content type. BP didn't used to have much minor league information, didn't have much in the way of "humor articles", rarely interviewed people in baseball etc. And yes, they still hav a lot of statistics and sabremetrics too. If you don't like the article, it's fine if you choose not to read it.. but don't say it shouldn't be published and/or wouldn't make the cut just because it doesn't fit your personal idea of what the BP brand should be.

What is OPB? :)

Come to Denver, please? :)

Btw there's no reason for this comment to receive so many negatives. It's not like he was telling people to step on kittens...

And the Marlins would also want the Rays Touch Tank.

Funny, I thought your Mariners suggestion was incredibly overpriced.

Heh, know the feeling

You still use monitors?

Rockies: Dexter Fowler and cash.. because the Marlins, you know, want cash... and the Rockies, you know, still don't think Fowler is good.

Anyone want to place bets (or arguments) on which team uses statistical analysis the least/worst?

Heh I used to work for a for-profit career college and accreditation was never something to joke about. You could even get fired for implying a program had accreditation that it didn't have.

Eh well, you wouldn't be the first to remember things about me ;) On the flipside, I did say I was commenting from work and offered to hop on ProQuest once I got home.

"which sounds like a completely legitimate and accredited academic institution" Um, except it's not.. it's just a person's blog.

Remember when Game Winning RBI was en vogue?

Fantasy baseball is one way I connect with players who aren't Cubs or Rockies. I always like Darryl Kile who was a stalwart in my rotations and when he passed away, I kept him on my roster, taking up an active slot, to honor him. Was that the same as a candlelight vigil or donating to a charity in his name? No. But it did show to the rest of the league I was thinking of him and was willing to play a "less than optimal" roster to do so.

I think the Rangers deserve to step back with how casual Washington was about not caring about winning the All-Star game and the way the fans were ripping into Hamilton. Sure, Hamilton's a project but Rangers fans/players(Young)/management seem to be a bit spoiled and feel entitled of late.

Only if you have time available to interview yourself :)

"Wait till next year." - The Cubs fans' lament

Is Denver in the works?

The moral of the story might be that Dickey is somewhat likely to at least maintain his 2010-2012 ability since pitchers of his type that peak later tend to keep it up in their late 30s.

Billy Beane was considered smart, then the A's didn't win for a long time once they traded Hudson/Zito/Mulder away. Now, he's considered smart again.

I think Polanco is a half year stopgap. Also, I think getting AJ for just a one year deal is a steal and I'm not sure why his agent would've allowed him to sign for such a short term commitment after a career year.

DiPoto said Bourjos would start last year. I should know, he was on my fantasy team. Bourjos finished April with only 53 plate appearances. Whether there's "no justifiable reason to start Wells", the fact remains Wells played more than Bourjos last year and it had nothing to do with a Bourjos injury or some such. Despite what the stats say and the defense suggests, Bourjos was given less playing time than Wells (in addition to Hunter, Trumbo and of course, Trout). P.S. I prefer the second lineup.

"He'll eat innings and he'll get ground balls. " Vargas is a flyball pitcher.

I'm still uncertain Bourjols will get much playing time considering even Vernon Wells got more AB than him in 2012.

Small sample, but interesting that Dickey and knuckleballers in general peak at 35 and maintain through their early 40s.

9. A fantasy baseball subscription.

Also, at the salary the Jays are paying Dickey, he doesn't have to be an All Star. And, all things considered, they do have a young catcher in Arencibia who is competent enough. The real comparable is probably the Halladay trade from the Jays to the Phillies which, ironically enough, involved d'Arnaud.

On ESPN, Dickey's theory is that the Mets were waiting for the other free agent pitchers like Grienke etc to sign so that Dickey's price would be driven up. "As for the slow pace of negotiations with the Mets, Dickey suspects team officials purposely dragged things out until front-line free-agent pitchers began to come off the board. That strategy figured to increase the interest in Dickey among teams desperate for starting pitching. "I think, just as a logical person, it made sense that they were going slowly to try to see what was out there," Dickey said. "And I can certainly understand that. It may not have not lined up with my timing, which is perfectly OK." " http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/8759190/new-toronto-blue-jay-ra-dickey-says-former-team-new-york-mets-capped-offer-2-years-20m

It's the same amount he asked the Mets for, I believe.

It happens. Every so often there are a few people who come out of the woodwork and, without saying anything, minus every comment I make for a few weeks. I usually ignore the +/- ratings I get and usually the minus bats go away after awhile. Besides, I've typed paragraphs, including statistics and links and done research and remained at 0. Someone says "Nice article." in about that many words and gets +10. I say "I don't like beer" and I get -10.

Peyton Manning got 80,000 people to stop doing the wave at a Broncos game, so anything's possible if the fans like you.

No, not constantly. Just so happens that quite a few trades lately affected the one fantasy team I have. Also, there are at least two other people who regularly comment on BP who are in the same fantasy league and with how slow the offseason is in general, it's nice to have something additional to chat about. Besides, I do a lot of non-fantasy comments too ;)

I'm glad the Jays are making good, quality moves to be competitive in the AL East. I am not glad they keep trading my rookie keepers to the NL. I've now blown well past my 2 crossover limit :/

Chuck Knoblauch's an interesting guy to follow. Jose Canseco can be pretty entertaining too.

Thanks for the breakdown.

Actually, I was asking what factors there were for Trout to win besides WAR(P). You were the one who listed defense, baserunning, etc which were already included inside of WAR(P). And btw I do think Trout was the MVP, just asking a rhetorical question about why people should use WAR/WARP as a rationale for MVP voting if the metrics disagree or have a wide variance, especially on some players like Torii Hunter.

Similar to Hideki Matsui, they'll probably make at least half of the contract back through Japanese marketing.

As I recall, most of the argument was based on Trout's WAR vs Cabrera's Triple Crown on a playoff team. Defense and the various components of OBP and OPS such as hits, walks, home runs etc are in WAR and WARP. I think the only thing not in there is baserunning. That's why I say "such as?" since WAR/WARP are already including the offensive and defensive components.

Such as...?

Entertainment. Which BP provides in spades.

"This winter, the Giants re-signed Pagan and now have inked Torres to a four-year deal." Pagan was inked to a four year deal.

Because WARP is a BP metric and the other metrics aren't BP.

Only non-latino MLB player... there were a few minor league players who were non-latino.

+1 just because it's rare to see CNN board-style commentary on here. I'll also give a +1 to anyone that ties WARP to Romney's Five Point Plan.

You know what the Hanley picture reminds me of? "Once again, the L.A.P.D. is asking Los Angelenos not to fire their guns at the visitor spacecraft. You may inadvertently trigger an interstellar war." - Independence Day As far as pathos go, I can imagine Hanley being one of the leisurely marksmen.

It's just amazing how far the Pirates system has come. Hopefully the Pirates will pull off that elusive winning season this year. Huntington's done a lot of great work, even with the initial criticism of blowing up the early major league roster, and it would be nice for him to get some of the kudos that he has earned.

Magic's not exactly the majority owner of the Dodgers, more like the face of the group.

In order to project what talent can do, you need to look at what they have done last year.

Those pictures are frigging hilarious. I think Grienke or Ramirez are my favorite ones.

Hey, at least the Angels are trying to win unlike some teams...

With WAR calculations all over the place, is there a real reason to be upset that Trout didn't win the MVP?

Trying to wrap my head around this. David Schoenfield said on his ESPN SweetSpot blog that, based on baseball-reference's WAR, Torii Hunter in 2012 was more valuable than Josh Hamilton (5.5 to 3.4 WAR). FanGraphs at 5.3 to 4.4. BP has the WARP at 3.9 for Hamilton vs 3.3 for Hunter. What am I missing here?

You actually notice a -1? :)

I agree with you. My cable bill goes up because of all those darned Laker games.

That's why I said it's a minor part. Generally, a GM wants to keep cordial relationships with the other GMs. However, it's definitely not the "whole point".

Nice to know that a decade later, I still get a bit of value out of working at a Nike customer service call center :)

I thought Ken Griffey Jr. retired... :)

Perspiration-control fabrics, six-finger gloves and removable spikes are in use today. In fact, you can screw and unscrew certain kinds of spikes depending on the kind of field/turf you're playing on and the position you're playing... not just in baseball, but football, soccer, etc. There are also some gloves with see-through mesh for webbing.

As a side note, one reason KC might get a lot of flak is a lot of prominent sabremetricians/sabremetricly-inclined writers have the Royals as their favorite team. Go back to Rob (Neyer) and Rany (Janzyaerli) on the Royals, Joe Posanski, etc. I'm not sure who Law's favorite team is, but as a BP alumni, I'm sure he read Rob/Rany/Joe pretty frequently.

But, over a half of season of at bats, is the difference in OBP between Youkilis and Chavez really worth 8 millionish?

The Royals have done some pretty bad trades, but the Cabrera trade only looks bad in hindsight because, at the time, people thought Cabrera's value had peaked and Sanchez had a very good chance of rebounding. Also, Moore did pick up Cabrera for cheap and should get some credit for that.

"That's the whole point of trading, not to fleece the other guy" Actually, that's not the whole point of trading. The whole point of trading is to get value/fill needs. Whether the other guy is fleeced is, at best, a very minor part of trading.

And that's basically why baseball is fun to talk about. People predict and project, go with their gut or go with stats and in the end, people will be right and others will be wrong with no real certainty that those who were right will remain right. For all we think we know about baseball, it just turns things into a lesser crapshoot than a coinflip.

I can't help but wonder why the Yankees paid so much for Youkilis when they could've retained Chavez for cheaper... besides, A-Rod's only supposed to be out for a few months so Chavez seems a better fit as a stopgap.

Just because the Royals expect him to be more than a 3 WARP pitcher doesn't mean he will be.. that's why we have statistics and projections.

Ok here's another semi-silly hypothetical question... Is this a trade that Dayton could've/should've done in June/July? By then, it should be clearer whether the Royals are pretenders or contenders and a better idea of the quality of their lineup and pitching. There's a decent chance that Shields would be cheaper since there wouldn't be as much time left on his contract and if the Rays aren't in contention, they may be more apt to deal him at a discount. This kind of mindset would be similar to the Pirates acquiring Wandy Rodriguez et all at the break.

The Royals take on a ton of risk since the Royals paid, in terms of prospects, on the gamble that Wade Davis makes a successful conversion to starter. Beyond that, for the trade to be a success, James Shields has to remain a successful starter _and_ the Royals have enough other things go right to change from a 70 win team to a 90+ win team. Not many teams go from 70 wins to 90+ wins in one season. That's a huge amount of risk and the Royals are paying for that privilege. I think it was Nate Silver who wrote a long time ago on BP about marginal wins. Basically, if you're an 85 win team, 5 wins matters much more to you than if you are a 70 win team because those 5 wins can put the 70 win team into the playoffs. Have the Royals really made enough changes to leapfrog the White Sox and Tigers for the AL Central lead? Was it worth the risk based on Myers' potential? Could the Royals have acquired starting pitching another way, either through free agency or through a less expensive trade in terms of rookies? Because that's basically what a prospect is, that $4 million coin flip (though some prospects and coin flips are worth more than others). And, as noted, people who look at things long-term like Warren Buffett or the Rays, tend to go for the long-term coin flips. Sure, the Rays get their Brignacs but they also get their Longorias and Prices.

Given the Royals performance over Moore's tenure, do they warrant the benefit of the doubt?

This is a sport where, if you stay at the plate a second too long after hitting a home run, you're characterized as a guy who shows people up. Wait till something real controversial like the first openly gay player hits the majors...

Myers + something for Shields would've probably received less flak.

Unfortunately, I can't value Marquis that highly because of the ex-Cub factor. So he'd be a lesser Earl.

If that was really the case, DM would've kept Myers as a catcher.

Gordon, Perez, Moose and Hosmer have all had a few warts.. and don't forget Butler in there too. Generally a rookie will have a sophomore slump or something but Butler's power disappeared for 2010/2011 and Gordon's bat completely disappeared for 2009/2010. Gordon even regressed a bit from 2011. Not to mention pretty much every Royals rookie pitcher has flamed out... As an aside, there's also been no real good explanation on why Myers didn't get some major league at bats last year. Did they lack confidence in him? Wanted him to work on defense? I'm not sure if there's another GM who wouldn't have given him a September cup of coffee.

The Rays have a good history of replacing major league pitchers with minor league ones, usually before their value starts to tank like Kazmir. Sure, Shields and Davis are solid major leaguers, but just last year, they moved Davis to the bullpen and were going to move Niemann because of Moore, Archer, etc.

I like that tie in to the Young trade and hadn't thought of it that way.

Name a team that doesn't get older. As far as "continuing the way they have", they no longer trade prospects for middling veterans the way they did in the 80s. They've put a lot of emphasis on the farm system and for all the "Evil Empire" talk, a good chunk of their roster is homegrown (Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, Cano, Gardner, Hughes, etc.) No, they don't have a farm system like the Rays but their organization isn't in complete disarray like the Red Sox are either.

The majority of the risk is with the Rays, but Myers has a very high floor which helps to mitigate that risk. Also, perhaps this trade frees up some free agent dollars for the Rays to make another move via free agency. And yes, I do agree that getting someone like Dempster and swapping Franceour for Myers would've been better.

The Yankees had the best record in the AL last season and they're on the decline just because they didn't resign Martin or Chavez? On the flipside, Myers is supposed to be ready next year and the Rays scored the least runs in the AL East while preventing the least runs in the AL East.. i.e. they needed to improve their offense and had some run prevention to spare.

What if Shields gets hurt since he's on the wrong side of 30? What if Davis can't convert back to the rotation? You can play these "what if" games with both sides...

Besides, I understand that social anxiety disorder and antisocial behavior are two different things but it is disingenuous to say that it is impossible to have both. Just to put this joke to bed, I'll rephrase it. "Maybe the only reason Greinke developed was that his social anxiety disorder interfered with his ability to interact with bad Royals coaches :)"

I was looking for an article that mentioned social anxiety order, antisocial disorder and ZacK Greinke. Once work is over, I'll hop on ProQuest and find something that's peer-reviewed, preferably from the AMA.

Opinions are all over the map. Crasnick and Schofield are saying the Royals won just because no prospects are ever guaranteed. There's even a little bit of a "baseball outsider vs baseball insider" argument going on. "ESPN's Keith Law called the deal a "heist" for Tampa Bay , and some chat board posters engaged in the inevitable potshots by force of habit. Friedman is revered among the armchair know-it-all crowd, and Kansas City GM Dayton Moore is a convenient punching bag, and this latest deal helped perpetuate that narrative. If the five email responses I received from baseball executives late Sunday night are any indication, the reaction within the baseball industry is more nuanced. " http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8731880/baseball-executives-chime-their-thoughts-multiplayer-trade-involving-tampa-bay-rays-kansas-city-royals

Believe it or not, people can have social anxiety disorder and be "anti-social". http://www.eseduce.com/social-anxiety-disorder-trap-zack-greinke-societys-indifference/

I had the Orioles winning on my backup set of tea leaves.

Are the failing of the young "can't miss" hitters (and pithcers) the fault of the hitters in particular, or something specific in the Royals system? Granted, not every prospect pans out, but the Royals aren't exactly growing pitchers on trees like the Braves or A's or hitters like some other teams. Maybe KC's just being smart for trading rookies they figured they couldn't fully develop? Regarding the TB trade, people said the Cubs made a mistake.

The Miguel Cabrera trade isn't a good comparison. That was a salary dump and many people at the time panned the trade value-wise.

Maybe the only reason Greinke developed was that he was too antisocial to listen to the Royals coaches :)

Well, in terms of building a winner, Agon/Hanley/Greinke's a better way to do it than Buehrle/Reyes/Bell especially when you already have Kemp, Kershaw, etc.

Just my luck for a trade to involve a chunk of people on my Scoresheet team while I'm travelling i.e. Myers, Montgomery and Niemann who might now make the Rays rotation. On the flipside, I'm glad Montgomery went to an organization with a history of developing pitchers and have high hopes they can straighten him out.

Agreed. Not exactly a blockbuster, but the Twins got a lot of value out of this.

He's a legal alien from LOOGYville.

"The United States Code of Federal Regulations requires Francis to allow more runs than his component measures portent. By allowing 5.6 runs per nine innings despite a 4.31 FIP, Francis was doing his part as a law-abiding citizen." The tone of that reminds me of the humor I like to see in BP Annuals.

Out of curiosity, is there an "official date" where the Astros are in the AL? Opening Day? January 1st? Start of spring training?

Jeffrey Loria is the Scott Boras of owners? :)

Actually, after they were warned, they gave Josh Johnson an extension. That got them off warning for 2011 then they traded him in 2012. He only got 3.75MM in 2011 and 7.75 in 2012. It then goes up to 13.75MM for 2013 and 2014 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/josh-johnson-agreed-to-fouryear-extension.html

If they send a catcher as the PBTNL to the Rockies, we'll also know the catcher can't frame a pitch ;)

Thanks for the chart. Even though 14 of 28 got an OPS better than .725, I'd like to think the Giants could cobble something together for cheaper. Maybe, offensively, it's a reduction to the .675 OPS range but I'd like to think the difference is no more than half a win in value and six million dollars a year cheaper.

.275/.340/.385 should be easier and cheaper to find especially at 2B