Re: ros pecota... If you reduce 2009/2010 weighting doesn't that increase, not decrease, the smaller samples from this season ?

Re: Blanks - is there a real chance he replaces Rizzo in SD?

has Goldschmidt passed Allen as far as Dbacks 1b go? this is more of a general question, but how often do you see guys skip AAA and go straight from AA to MLB? how would the Dbacks manage both these guys at AAA?

according to MLE's, Goldie's # in Tuscon would look nearly identical to what they are now

KG, you mentioned before that Goldschmidt was a likely September call-up. but, he is murdering his league and the Dbacks have no great 1b currently. why wouldn't he be an imminent callup? how many better hitters are there in the minors?

I was one of the people who questioned you yesterday, and think this is a great follow up. tx.

what is it about Keppingers PECOTA that makes him look useful? .270 AVG with neither speed nor power?

agree that before you say PECOTA ROS >> ZIPS ROS, you need data to back that up. maybe more recency bias can be correct? but it's not incorrect just because you say so

any thoughts on the next big prospect to get called up? Chisenhall, Ackley, Laurie, does Goldschmidt belong in this group?

what a weird article. this is an instance where the announcers are completely correct, even brain dead MSM types recognize that a triple is rare, hard to achieve, and can't really be planned for.

godspeed Will

correct, I don't put blind faith in anything. however, PECOTA had enough errors that I ignored it completely probably even more important than PECOTA though is the $ valuation engine on this site. I have begun to greatly favor an alternative source which makes a lot more intuitive sense, and gives 1 truer number. the $ engine here has all kinds of inputs that don't make any sense - at a very base level I think they are going about fantasy valuation incorrectly. you shouldn't have to pick "moderate" or "aggresive" or decide what kind of positional adjustment you want. these aren't questions and end user should have to answer, that's approaching the problem the wrong way. standard scores based off projections and projected playing time are all an end user should want or need for a basic $ valuation

I've used PECOTA since 2007 in my drafts. the debacle in 2009 was so bad that I ignored PECOTA completely in 2010 in favor of other systems which I could trust a whole lot more. I will again ignore PECOTA in 2011, see how it does, and potentially use it in 2012. I mean, I'm glad you guys are taking the time to really fix this thing, but trust is a hard thing to earn back, and perhaps even more importantly the CHONE's and ZIP's of the world have become solid and free contenders

you would probably feel different if you were a Pirates fan instead of a Yankees fan. if they aren't trying to win and exist solely to take handouts/profits from other teams, then (as a fan of a large market team) I would prefer they don't exist. as a Yankee fan, you feel good about your money going to Pirates owners who don't care about competing?

ok, flags increase franchise value. But you are asking an owner to lose money or break even over a multi-year period for a chance at winnings a championship. But isn't it a whole lot easier for the Pirates to just pocket $15m ad infinitum? if you do a 2 scenario NPV, where in one scenario the Pirates makes $15m PA for 10 years while winning 70 games each year, and the other where you give them some expected revenues from their "Win WS % chance" (and increase costs) I would bet the Pirates make more from collecting the $15m PA, thank you very much. given the actions we have seen the Pirates and other small market teams (save the Rays) take, I think they agree

and the above is why the system is broken - small market owners are not incented to win

"Revenue sharing has allowed small market teams to increase payroll when they are competitive" Yes, assuming that owners want to win, and are ok with sacrificing profits to win. But the evidence seems to be that most teams are NOT willing to make this tradeoff. The Rays are the exception how are the Pirates incented to follow the lead of the Rays? You are assuming they will, but I think that is a dangerous assumption. And this just means that fans like me are helping to line the Pittsburgh owners pockets. No thank you.

hey Will, any word on Chase Utley? it seems he is likely due back around the same time as Pedroia, who we are hearing a lot about. but I haven't heard much about Utley. is he still around 8/15 or so?

Kevin, Wouldn't Hellickson for Montero be a no brainer for both the Rays and Yankees?

any thoughts on how Volquez has looked?

hey Kevin, Is there any good reason why Brett Wallace has not been called up yet?

they are showing Strasburg pitch on mlb.com, free for all

Hi Clay, I guess the bigger question is: is that really Strasburg's true talent level? or should we not put so much emphasis on non luck adjusted stats?

Hi Clay, Isn't basing the whole translation on an ungodly low BABIP # / H/9 IP asking for trouble? Tim Lincecum averaged 6.71 H/9 last year - which should translate roughly to 6 in AA/AAA I think. so if you're saying that Strasburg this year is better than 2009 Tim Lincecum, well....I think that's crazy

Will this was a fantastic article

any chance Moutsakas is up before September? what about Brett Wallace?

Over = before or after?

Hey Kevin, Would love to see a post about the guys you think will be "Super 2" callups. IE Strasburg, Stanton, Santana, any others you think

Who gets up first - Wallace or Moutsakas? Who is more ready?

Kevin, How about this: How has Strasburg's minor league stint compared to Lincecum's last stay in the minors? It looks like he is striking out fewer guys than Timmy did, but perhaps dominating even more?

I guess no need for any more Strasburg updates...yawn :)

hey Kevin, Brett Wallace is killing it, and this week a report came out that he won't be up anytime soon. is this just lip service, or will Wallace be up if he keeps hitting?

Re: PFM and 50th percentile projections - I still don't see a perfect fit. in PFM, McLouth is hitting .267. I don't see this AVG in any of his PECOTA percentiles. I do see it in the Weighted Means Spreadsheet though

awesome news and congrats!

the thing is, this format is really just a dumbed down format of standard rankings. do your $ values for 1b, rank them in descending order, and draw some lines somewhere every few players. that's basically what this is. that's not a personal attack on Marc, who I think is very smart and has helped me a ton over the years. it's an attack on the "tier" format in general. and to reiterate: tiers make sense, if, in your league, you have 1b with $ values like $50 $45 $45 $45 $37 $37 $37 but, 1) in real life it doesn't work that way and 2) tiers STILL wouldn't really give you any extra information beyond the $ amounts when the rankings are really more like: $53 $41 $37 $36 $30 $26 $24 $22 $21 $19 $14 $12 then where the heck are the tiers? you could make an argument for all sorts of things, but none of them give you information beyond the $ values

Well, put my vote in for "hates tiers". To me, grouping players into subjective tiers, instead of putting a dollar value or ADP # next to him, is dumbing down the value of your lists. Pujols is a lot, lot, more valuable than Miggy, but they are in the same tier. Miggy, meanwhile, is pretty damn close to AGonz, who is a tier below. So what real conclusion can we take away from the tiers? Grouping players together like this, and drawing arbitrary lines between "groups" only makes sense when there are actual clear delineations between distinct groups of players. but in the real life (ha!) fantasy world, there is a constant sliding scale of talent, and to create "tiers" creates differences where none really exist.

also, is this something that will be added into the PFM for fantasy value?

Sorry if you have discussed this, but is SIERRA being used to compute PECOTA ERA's? or is this something completely different?

Will, OT, but Jerod Mayo? it seems 6-8 weeks, or...less. any idea on this one?

Hi Will, Will Beltran be back this year?

I don't think it's just that defense is taken out of play - it's that the ball is taken out of play, and there is an important difference between those 2 things. if a ball is hit it can land for a hit despite great defense, or it can land out of the park where defense is irrelevant. pitchers who K tons of guys don't give the ball a chance at landing for a hit, even given good team defense. sluggers like Dunn, Howard, etc will often not give the ball a chance at falling for a hit either, but will often land the ball out of the park which is tremendous value for the offense

Hi Will, Any more news on Sizemore? Odds of him needing injury/missing major time?

Hi Nick, I basically just reverse engineered LPP in excel. I ran the price guide, copied into excel, and figured out where the values were coming from and how I could do it with my own projections. Mays walks you through this in \"how the price guide works\". ERA & WHIP took a bit to wrap my head around but really it\'s not very hard. Also, yeah, I dont want to trash Clay I think the increased attention to PFM is great. I just don\'t understand the nuts and bolts of it to trust it completely.

Michael/Nick, Count me among those who has soured on PFM in favor of LPP. PFM is far too much of a magical black box for me to trust - I have no idea what\'s going on in there to really trust it. I took a few hours 1 night and learned how LPP really worked, and built $ valuations using the PFM projections and LPP methodology. good exercise. I would love for PFM to be more transparent, but until then I will favor LPP. but PECOTA/PFM is still the best, I think...until Tango says otherwise I guess

where is our online PECOTA? where is online PECOTA? :)

unless there is some official definition of the award that gives it to a guy who was formerly physically injured in some way, I don\'t see why its wrong to give it to Lee. \"Comeback Player of the Year\" could just as easily mean \"guy who came back from an unsuccessful playing year(s)\" as \"guy who came back from injury\"

by 3rd order wins, the Sox were the better team all year than the Rays the Sox also outscored the Rays head-to-head in their 18 games this year if you are going by \"better regular season team will win\" that team is the Sox, not the Rays

\"If all of the above is “refusing to play,” I would sincerely like to see what “trying” looks like. It would be entertaining to see a player post a .600 OBP or .800 SLG.\" it looks like this Joe: .396 / .489 / .743

the problem is that Joe\'s \"analysis\" here is incorrect. Manny both played in 22/24 games and quit on his team. they are both true. he hit well (compared to the average guys) and wasn\'t trying his hardest. these statements are both true. but the Red Sox don\'t pay him to play in most games or hit above an acceptable threshhold. they pay him to give everything he has. he didn\'t, and in that regard McCarver was right, and Sheehan \"well he is still a good player so I don\'t see anything wrong!\" falls dreadfully short.

regardless of how dumb McCarver is, or what results Manny had in Boston, it doesn\'t change the fact that: - Manny indeed has a history of shutting it down at times - Manny certainly took plays off, which ScottyB referred to - and most importantly, he almost certainly wasnt trying his hardest this year in Boston. Sheehan can hide behind /// numbers, but it doesnt change the fact that he\'s paid to give 100%, and he wasnt.

maybe this is better left for Nate, but what will Milledge\'s PECOTA for next year look like? down from the preseason 2008 projection? he was valued at around $25 in my 7x5 league, and I got him for $3, meaning I can sign him for $6 next year and $9 the year after. is this as big a coup as I thought it was at the draft?

hey Will great stuff as usual. I see that Kevin Gregg is throwing again - odds he comes back this year?