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Love this article. But do we really believe Liriano still has upside at this point?
I think your.822 per dollar spent is wrong. It doesn't match up with 21.7 percent inflation. Did you mean .783?
Does Castro really have the type of personality that would clash with a manager like, say, Hanley did with Fredi Gonzalez? He makes some boneheaded mistakes, but I don't think he's considered lazy or defiant. Am I wrong on this? The guy probably just needs some more experience (or, quite possibly, he's just the type of player who will continue to make a lot of defensive mistakes).
It's in the nl-only section, so I think Paul is just throwing him out there as a guy to take a shot on in those leagues. To give some context, I grabbed him last week in my nl-only league and the next best available guy was probably Bobby Abreu. In those leagues, you aren't grabbing guarantees off the waiver wire, you're grabbing guys who MIGHT do something productive for you. Fernando's 90th percentile pecota is .292/.352/.483 . If you have a spot to fill (say you just lost Helton) on an NL-only roster, you would gladly take a shot on that kind of production for 6 weeks. It's not likely, but it's not impossible.
I love this.
PS Am I the only one here that always seems to end up with at least one Hairston on my NL-only league fantasy team?
(You are correct in assuming I have never won said fantasy league)
That does make sense. Thanks for the explanation!
I'm a little confused by this: "basically, all players, whether they were above average or below average in one year, will perform closer to league average in the next year."
Using your Hanley example, should he have been expected to regress toward the league average this year, or toward his career average? Or does this refer to his peripheral numbers?
You're right, but is there any other sport where it's this bad? Will you ever see an nfl quarterback who was a mediocre wide receiver in college and ignored on draft day? Maybe that's a bad analogy, but...well, I'm not sure it's that bad.
This is awesome.
At least you made me feel a LITTLE better about Liriano...
I wonder if there is a place to look up Gordon's "just missed" homeruns? There was a shot earlier in the season that was foul by a few inches, and some of his doubles have missed by just a little bit. I keep seeing a lot of people call Gordon a sell-high because of the lack of homeruns, but those doubles are looking promising to me.
Thornton has been pitching like that for years with lots of success. He threw 90.1% fasballs in '09 and 89% in '08 with very good results both years.
Congrats, Christina! Sounds like an awesome opportunity.
Wanted to make a point about Bedard - I understand what you're saying, but it seems to me that, if you're going to own Bedard, you need to throw him out there 100% of the time that he isn't on the DL. Because it won't be long...
It's about innagural auction drafts, for keeper auction leagues who are starting at "Year 0." There is a different strategy for leagues in this state.
I noticed the same thing. Weird that it would project Chacin that negatively.
I think when you're dealing for prospects, you take the best players you can get and worry about turning them into the positions you need later on. I think you can argue that KC didn't get the best players possible, but if they truly believe they did then I don't think it matters if they are overstocked in the corners.
It's pretty hard to compare this Brewers core to what Seattle had going for them last year. I think, looking back on it, we can probably all agree that we got a little bit overexcited about guys like Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley last year.
As a baseball fan, I think that's a pretty terrible response to what happened. Like it or not, the "historical" part of a baseball game is an important part of the sport and so is the scoring/statistical part. So the "outcome" of the game was altered in a pretty significant way. Part of baseball is "who hit the most homeruns?" and "who had the most complete game shutouts in his career?"
The other aspect is that this was a pretty easily avoidable problem.
Great Q+A, thanks David and Denard! I particularly enjoyed the part about Span being forced to change his hitting approach throughout his minor-league career.
140 bYtes. Sorry, couldn't help myself.
Thanks and good luck. Hopefully there aren't any hiccups (but there always are!) I know this kind of thing is never a fun way to spend the weekend.
Hey Marc! I would love to see a "potential closers" type of article, noting non-closer relievers and your opinions on their chances of becoming closers in the near- and short-term of the season. Thanks!
I know where you're going with this argument, but I can't buy it. There are way too many counterarguments.
A point related to this that people rarely think about is this:
Twenty years from now I'm going to be in my late 40's. As a casual athlete, if I can take a safe dosage of some sort of steroid/testosterone that makes me feel like I'm in my 20's without causing dangerous side effects, I want to be able to do it. I don't want something that could potentially have a very positive impact on my quality of life be vilified because a few "sacred" records were broken and Congress had a fit. If you're a "keep the 'roiders out of the HOF!" guy, think about that. Is your stance on that issue going to be different if you're taking a legal dosage of steroids/testosterone to improve your quality of life when you're in your 40's or 50's (or even your 60's or 70's)?
Not unless someone parks their car across one of the basepaths.
I love BP, but I honestly don't know if I'll renew again without Joe. I know I'm repeating what has been said many times already in this comment section, but I'm adding my comment to the pile. I don't know the circumstances under which this happened, but the two sides need to figure it out if BP is going to survive in its current form. When fangraphs and thehardballtimes are free, it takes a lot of good work to get me to pay a subscription. That good work has kept me coming back for many years, but this is a serious loss.
Ugh, it makes me sad to see the mention of Andruw Jones' fade into crappiness. What happened to that guy? He was a fun one to watch for a long time.
The interesting thing was that no one seemed to disagree that pulling Lackey was a bad move. Even the terrible commentators came to the same conclusion.
And the Angels still pulled out a win.
Baseball is a funny game.
Yesiree, it seems to be an IE8 problem. I know the site developers probably have a ton of work to do at all times, but I hope fixing the "Post Reply" button in IE8 is high on the priority list. I'm sure a huge number of BP users primarily browse with IE8 (and some, like me, don't have a choice while we're at work...)
I thought at least Manuel was being creative by using Blanton and Happ when he did.
The irritating part was that immediately following the Howard double Tracy brought in the righty Contreras to face Werth and Ibanez (who is a lefty). Why let Cook face Howard if you're going to take him out for the next two batters (one of whom is another lefty slugger)? I just don't get that.
Wow, I'm shocked to see the amount of criticism this column is getting. I enjoyed it just fine.
Also, as Jeff Evans noted above, "Post Reply" is not working in IE8. It seems to work fine in Firefox.
I would venture to guess that most fans didn't even know about the interview prior to the suspension.
Yeah, I have to agree that the punishment does not fit the crime here. I read the interview and it wasn't a big deal. Every single person has days when they say, "I don't really enjoy working in this environment." Hendry needed a scapegoat and, let's be honest, Bradley is a pretty easy target. I'm sure I'm not the only one within the Cubs fanbase that is more frustrated with Jim Hendry than with Milton Bradley.
I'm not sure the Braves were being cheap - I think Anderson has been overvalued his entire career and Dunn undervalued. So isn't it possible that this is a player valuation problem and not a penny-pinching one?
I agree with you on the Rockie's dh'ing Seth Smith, but would the Dodgers really be crazy enough to play a Pierre/Manny combo over Manny/Thome? In the World Series against an AL team? I just can't see it.
Yeah, BJ might actually be more fun to watch, but I think we're all expecting Justin to be the top bro at this point. I'm a little surprised at Joe's choice of topic. Entertaining article though.
There has been a ton of good pitching developed during hendrys tenure. At least give him credit for that. And there were a few positional prospects that just didn't pan out. I'm not sure you can really blame hendry for pie's failure, for instance.
I'm not sure why you say it doesn't tell you anything about the pitcher. The pitcher does CAUSE his strand rate at any given time he pitches, we just make note that over the long run that strand rate should even out.
Since wxrl measures how the pitcher has changed win expectancy, it tells us how effective a reliever has been. If a reliever comes in with the bases loaded and no outs, and then strikes out the side, shouldn't he get credit for that effectiveness? We shouldn't say, "His strand rate for that inning was 100%, so he just got lucky."
And if we can measure his past effectiveness, that gives us a stat with which we can project future effectiveness, no? And if we project future wxrl, we can take into account the luck factor you are mentioning.
I actually don't mind seeing guys like Zobrist maket the all-star team. The guy caught lightning in a bottle this year and went nuts for a month. He'll probably never have half-season numbers that look like this again and never have a chance to make another all start team. Let the guy get some glory for his hot streak - I have no problem with that.
Yeah, I'm lost on that one. Maybe I'm crazy, but I can't think of a Jason that Joe Torre managed and that was also a pull hitter....
....hmmmmm, and as I was typing that, I realized he's probably talking about Jason Giambi.
I agree, a little more context would help.
On that note, I'm pretty sure Chone Figgins is talking about Juan Pierre.
I see you're implying a Rich Harden elbow problem in the quick cuts...isn't it his shoulder we're usually worried about?
"Reasonably competitive" only because all the other teams in the division are underperforming, not because the pirates are doing anything worthy of a playoff spot. This is a terrible team with some equally terrible contracts to shed.
I like the different perspectives...I'd love to see other "mainstream" analysts team up and do articles with the BP guys. The comparisons/contrasts are pretty interesting.
If you publish this, I will buy it.
Smoltz has been my favorite pitcher for a long time (and this is coming from someone who couldn't stand the Braves in the 90's...). Thanks for this Q&A. Interesting stuff, especially the comments on Mazzonne.
Wow, Brandon Webb's career path seems to be changing drastically right before our very eyes...
When I saw the title, I thought the article was going to attempt to make cases for stashing Pedro Martinez and trading for Pablo Sandoval...
I did notice that Sosa's face was on the front page of espn.com yesterday and Mell Hall's name was in a link off to the side somewhere.
SOSA DOES STEROIDS!!!!!!! BREAKING NEWS!!! SOSA!!!! STEROIDS!!!! SHOCKING!!!! UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!
also, mel hall raped a kid.
Technically, Manny Ramirez didn't violate the law, right? If I understand the story correctly, we only know he tested positive for something for which he had a prescription, no?
I know what you're saying - it seems obvious that Mac probably used. But if I were a player, I would hope that the public would want at LEAST a failed drug test before they started accusing me.
Instead of 5x your salary, make it 100x. The question gets a little tougher at that point.
Curious why you say this? Seth Smith hits and hits and hits...
Sorry, it was .788 for left fielders.
But .803 was the average ops in left field last year. I realize the threshold should be higher, but someone above noted that Mclouth's eqa's have been around .300 in his career. How is this not good enough for left field?
I think this sums it up nicely.
I hadn't considered that. As a payroll move, I get it. Talent-wise, I don't.
Joe, I get what you're saying here, but I disagree with both your opinion of Mclouth and with your conclusion.
Mclouth will likely obp ~.360 and slg .480 for the next three seasons (this is PECOTA'S projection, not mine). His platoon split is not particularly severe (and he has actually reversed that split so far this season). The NL average ops for right fielders in 2008 was .803 and for left fielders it was .788. Mclouth will likely be significantly better than both these marks. Additionally, he is a high-percentage base stealer and in his career has been replacement-level defensively at both corners. How is this a fourth outfielder? How many NL teams would love this production from either corner? You have called him a fourth outfielder before, and I don't get it. I would love to hear your argument for describing him as such, and you might just able to convince me. But please back it up.
For this reason, I don't think this was two teams making a smart trade and valuing their players properly. I think it was one team pulling the trigger too early and dumping its best offensive player who was coming off an admittedly career season and was also signed to a manageable contract. I'm not saying the Pirates should have gotten a Jason Heyward-level prospect here, but I do think they should have at least gotten a little more upside. Hernandez doesn't have much of a place with the organization if McCutcheon is around (do you really think his bat will ever be good enough to play in a corner?), Morton isn't going to be more than a marginal 5th starter, and Locke, while having upside, is a huge question mark.
That's a good analogy, Will.
However, you do realize that BP is kind of the "opera" of baseball analysis, right? I understand your point that articles need to be accessible, but I pay for a BP subscription instead of reading a free si.com/espn.com because I want something more. Heck, I love your injury column, but that information certainly isn't "pop," know what I mean?
I love this article. I completely disagree with Will that it has too much math/stats. The concept itself was interesting and I didn't find the analysis difficult to follow at all. The fantasy world is really missing this kind of article. There are way too many "Pick up Aaron Hill from your free agent pool" articles and not enough DIY articles. Great work and thumbs up!
The counting stat IS the relevant one in this case. Sorry dude.
I'll agree on the timeframe. I know you guys don't want to drag this thing out forever, but I can't see giving less than 5 days if you're talking about 10 articles. Obviously the number of articles will decrease each week, but this first week was overwhelming. I'll be completely honest - I got through about two articles and I chose not to vote for any because I didn't think it would be a fair thing for me to do.
I know it's silly for me to be complaining about a contest (an idea I love, by the way), and that my voting/participation is voluntary, but I just want to give some feedback for future decisions.
I'm surprised Beltran and Wright made that list. They're just not flawless enough. The list needs more flawless players.
I think it's kind of hilarious that Peavy is unsure about playing for Guillen.
You know, it's funny I didn't even consider that's why Phillips might be ripping the Mets. That makes sense though.
"any more force on his swing" is supposed to read "any more force on his wrists."
Another thing -
The Weeks injury is really kind of interesting to me. The only other player I can think of that has that kind of violent wrist action Weeks has is the obvious comparison, Sheffield. Maybe there's a reason we don't see swings like this very often? It seems likely that most people's tendons/ligaments can't handle that kind of force and that Sheffield is an extreme, extreme outlier.
Maybe I'm wrong and Weeks' swing doesn't generate any more force on his swing than someone with a cleaner swing, like Berkman, and that he's just injury prone. But it's interesting, nonetheless.
HAHAHA! Thanks for the link to that Steve Phillips article! I was watching the game with that first quote about "the flawless player" and when I heard it, I had to call my baseball buddy and tell him. Ridiculous.
I agree. If a writer is willing to respond to question/comments and make clarifications, that's a plus. That's something I expect when a technical article is published and it's a good thing.
I sure didn't see this article coming....good work! This was a fun read!
Wow, I really liked this article! Too bad you can't continue - good luck and I hope I read your stuff again in the near future.
Yeah, I don't get this either. Marshall has been a solid starter and really should stay there. But then, it's good to know the depth is there.
If you put spin on a bottle cap, you can get some serious bite....I know this because we killed a half day of work by trying to throw breaking balls with bottle caps through a hole in a cardboard box once.
The best thing about engineering labs is that managers are afraid of them...
I love your approach for this article, Joe, and I love that you used your own quotes.
I agree with the previous poster who questioned the wisdom of "Velocity is usually there, even when you are ‘off.'" This seems like a reasonable premise, but it's based completely on speculation and anecdotal evidence. Kevin, you are using statistical analysis to prove a premise that may or may not have any meaning (eg If a pitcher is just "off," his velocity is still there. If a pitcher has a bad day and his velocity isn't there, he is likely injured and not just "off.") It seems reasonable enough, but you really can't just throw it out there.
Great, informative post. Thanks!
Yeah, I saw that David Wright fly and thought to myself, "He's gotta be frustrated at that." He hit that ball pretty good.
Wow, Freudian slip? My first sentence should have read, "I don't quite get Joe's assessment that Mclouth is a 'pumped-up fourth outfielder'".....
Sorry about that.
Yeah, I don't quite get Joe's assessment that Byrnes is a "pumped-up fourth outfielder." He had 2 bad months and 4 extremely good ones. One of the very good ones was in September, when he hit .309/.385/.500 and was 9/9 on the basepaths. So one can't really make the argument that he wore down.
Care to expand on your assessment, Joe? I'm just kind of curious why you feel that way (other than Mclouth's more-than-passing physical resemblance to Eric Byrnes...)
I don't disagree with what you're saying, but I think the point is that the Kazmir's inability to throw his favorite out pitch led to a lot more nibbling. I watched him pitch several times last year and he just seemed to throw pitch after pitch after pitch to every single batter, never quite finishing guys off. Kazmir's k rate stayed pretty much the same as in previous years, so he was trying to be the same "style" of pitcher even without the pitch that made him so effective at that style. In my mind, that would lead to more pitch inefficiency. If you can k a guy on a 1-2 count instead of 3-2 and five foul balls, that's going to save you a lot of pitches.
Thanks for the update, guys.
Also, I can't be the only one that's been worried for a few months that we were going to lose Nate completely. I'm glad to hear that isn't happening. That said, congratulations on all your success out side of bp! That's great to see.
Kevin, congratulations on the new role! As jasonandrew77 mentioned, you guys aren't obligated to give us updates like this, and I appreciate that you respect us enough to do it.
This made me laugh out loud in my cubicle at work, especially the part about Bruce Bochy shaking his head.. Thanks for sharing that anecdote.
Assuming NHLFan98 grew up with the same hobbies I did...
I think he means Rookie Cards. I could be wrong though.
Actually, yes. I agree with you. I didn\'t like it very much and that has nothing to do with my personal opinion of Olberman.
Hmmmm, I\'ll have to try to see if I can get work to send me to DC on one of those dates...
I don\'t disagree with anything you\'re saying.
I just think it\'s silly that the media and the fans are being so vocal and so angry about this issue when, as Joe points out, there are bigger problems in other sports and in this sport. It\'s a big deal because it\'s sensationalistic.
One point I like to make:
Does the general reaction to this situation help us understand why McGuire has been hiding under a rock? What advantage is there to speaking to the media/fans if the backlash looks like this?
Great point on Cal.
I don\'t think it\'s a matter of defending the guy. I certainly won\'t go as far as to defend him. The point of Joe\'s article is that the media was going to blast him either way.
Nice article, Christina. I didn\'t consider how tight the AL Central race was.
While the scenario where the Sox come out on top is possible, I don\'t think it\'s any less likely that things break the WRONG way for the Sox - Konerko falls off the rest of his cliff, Thome can\'t stay healthy, Danks isn\'t as good as we thought, Quentin can\'t stay healthy. It seems possible the Sox are even worse off than the 73 game winners pecota is predicting.
I agree. Fehr and Orza certainly share the blame, but Selig can\'t seems to keep his mouth shut.
The image of Selig after Bonds\' record-breaking hr still makes me laugh when I think about it.
I don\'t know about Joe, but I definitely think mound height and ballpark dimensions were a much bigger factor than steroids.
Nice article, Joe. I was thinking along similar lines today as I watched a bunch of journalists on a news channel I won\'t bother naming dissect every word of Arod\'s press conference. It\'s pretty clear people didn\'t like the guy to start with, so what could he have done (given his squeaky-clean personality) to satisfy everyone? And, honestly, why should he even waste his time trying to satisfy everyone? If he showed up at the press conference and said, \"Hey guys, I injected X and put Y in my protein shakes and it probably helped me hit 2 or 3 homeruns and I really don\'t care if you want to wipe out my numbers and go ahead and keep me out of the HOF and I\'m going to donate $10 million to this charity to make up for it,\" would that have made a difference? Probably not.
ESPN and SI, on the other hand, are loving it up because they have something to write about. Take just ONE espn columnist:
That\'s 10 articles on sports since Feb 8 and 5 of them are about Arod.
Let\'s leave the issue alone. I\'m going to watch baseball as a fan this season as I do every season. When Arod crushes a homer, I\'m going to enjoy it. When Pujols lines one to the wall, I\'m going to enjoy it. When Dunn k\'s 4 times in a game and hits two bombs in the next one, it\'s going to be great. I\'m going to leave it up to law enforcement and to MLB to make sure the players are following federal laws and league regulations. I don\'t have the time or the desire to judge 750 different players on 30 different teams.
Great! Glad I pre-ordered!
Actually I was thinking the same thing.
I\'m waiting for a player everyone loves to be named on one of these things. How will people react if someone along the lines of Jeter/Griffey/Maddux/Moyer gets named? Not that I strongly suspect any of these guys, but it\'s only a matter of time until a more well-liked player than Arod/Bonds gets named.
Because, frankly, falsifying a prescription is a worse crime than the actual use of the drug.
Thanks for that link - I hadn\'t heard Orza\'s reasoning before.
But it seems to me that players could have been given anonymous identifiers here instead of using actual identifying information. The union really screwed up either way.
I\'m glad we\'re all hitting on the more complex issues surrounding this. Philosofool\'s point about the media not even touching the possible benefits of steroids is very valid.
And people seem to get that we take POTENT steroids on a daily basis. The issue of anabolic steroids is definitely more dangerous, but what about things like cortisone and prednisone? Prednisone is extremely potent. The issue is complex and the major media outlets are only focusing on one angle: do we hate the cheaters or do we forgive them?
I\'m not sure calling this a \"large scale, prescription drug ring\" is appropriate. A hundred or a few hundred people using steroids is not a \"drug ring,\" in my opinion.
I don\'t want to trivialize the fact that these guys broke the law, but there are larger and more dangerous drug rings in most high schools.
I used to work out in my town in a very popular local gym. This was about 3-4 years ago. At the time, if I wanted anabolic steroids, I knew exactly where to get them and I knew exactly who was using them. If I counted the number of users in the gym and then speculated on the main guy\'s other outside customers, the number would easily surpass the 104 in mlb\'s random drug test. And yet, despite my opposition to using these drugs, I never would have referred to this as a large scale/organized drug ring.
I see your point here, and it\'s a valid one, but I\'m not sure I completely agree with it.
If someone has a Mark McGuire comp, he\'s probably going to hit for power regardless of whether or not he uses hgh. If someone has a Mark Grace comp, he\'s going to be a patient hitter.
Adding in multiple PED variables will most likely skew projection systems far more than it will help them. Unless we learn that PEDs affect a player\'s development in a profound way, it doesn\'t make sense to consider them. Does it make sense to add in a \"workout habits\" variable? Or a \"brand of spikes\" variable? Or a \"prescription glasses strength\" variable? Again, we would have to learn that PEDs affect a player\'s development in a way as profound as something like, say, body type.
To take it one step further, let\'s say Bonds never took PEDs and, instead of having a 70+ hr season in his late 30s, he had a bunch of 25ish hr seasons in his late thirties. That really does not change what it would mean to have Bonds listed as your pecota comparable.
Lastly, in the long run, it makes sense to me (and I may be wildly mistaken) that adjusting for era will inherently account any PED effects.
Are you serious?
For one, pecota comps are statistical comps. It doesn\'t matter whether you\'re comparing a guy who used steroids to a guy who didn\'t, or whether you\'re comparing a cyborg to a dolphin with quick wrists for that matter.
Secondly, I can\'t speak for Joe or Will or the rest of BP, but I can speak for myself: It\'s not that I \"want this story to go away\" or that \"I\'m afraid of looking at the past,\" it\'s that we\'re not getting anywhere productive with the current situation.
Take the Arod story, for example. His name \"leaks\" from a source that isn\'t supposed to exist in the first place. Even if his name isn\'t really on the list, MLB and the players union can\'t even LEGALLY defend him because the identifying information isn\'t supposed to be there. Nor can they punish him if they confirm it. So where does this get us? A guy with crazy numbers in the late 90\'s and early 00\'s probably used PEDs. What\'s new?
Combine this with the media\'s ignorant, one-dimensional, and sensationalistic view of steroids and I\'m tired of it. That\'s also why some of us here like BP\'s stance. If nothing else, Will seems to have a broader view of the steroids issue and Joe isn\'t so irrational as to want to discount the numbers from everyone who \"cheated.\" That\'s as far as I\'ll take this, but I am surprised that someone would accuse BP of being biased for personal gain on this issue. They really have nothing to gain or lose either way. If anything, embracing the whole thing would have given them more article material (see: ESPN), but I don\'t see them capitalizing on a cheap situation in this way.
Thanks for looking Will, I appreciate that!
I\'m not sure anyone knows they\'re safe yet. From the sounds of it, human use has been pretty limited and targeted:
Look at the \"selectivity in men\" section and note that the reference does mention \"activity in the prostate.\" That should scare all men.
X2 mentioned \"no shrinkage,\" but who knows if something worse is the trade-off?
Thanks for the reply, Will.
Yeah, I guess it\'s easy for me to forget that a lot of this is going to power-lifters/bodybuilders, who happen to be in a different class of income-makers than the wealthiest baseball players.
Great article, Will! Thanks!
I would be curious to know if sarms are really that close to the quality of testosterone, or if x2 is just trying to gain a few clients with this interview. Also, I would be curious to know how this compares to the anabolic rating of past popular drugs like THG. Can you shed some light on this, Will?
It\'s also hard for me to believe the cost is that low if it\'s that good and that hard to come by. That\'s not how supply-demand curves work....
I hope we get an article explaining some of this year\'s projections. I\'m curious to know why PECOTA thinks Jimmy Rollins is suddenly going to obp .360
I would say that\'s a pretty intolerant stance you\'re taking. What if the foreword is really good, very well-written, very intelligent, and lacks any political commentary (I\'m guessing all of these will be true)? Is the fact that its writer also has political views on an extreme side of the spectrum relevant at that point?
By now you know that Nate has some extremely strong political views. If he wrote the foreword, would you also refuse to buy the book?
What if you found out Will had ten outstanding warrants for his arrest and had been cheating on his taxes for the last fifteen years? Would that stop you from buying the book?
Judge the book by what it has to say about its subject, not by the opinions, personal lives, and hobbies of the writers. You\'re mad because Olbermann is kind of loud and because you don\'t agree with his views. It\'s as simple as that.
I agree if you\'re talking specifically about statistics. But I think espn could EASILY use more intelligent analysts without getting to math-y. Steve Stone vs. John Kruk. Rob Neyer vs. Steve Phillips. I know I can get things like Neyer\'s stuff online, but I can\'t handle watching baseball tonight anymore. Espn SHOULD be concerned that fans like us are no longer part of their viewership and this interview with Walsh does not make me optimistic.
However, this was a great Q&A! Thank you Mr. Laurilia for doing it and thank you Mr. Walsh for being willing to talk to BP.
Man, what\'s with all the Olberman bashing? I\'m not a fan of the guy at all, but I think it\'s cool that he\'s doing the forweword. If anything, it gives me a reason to like him more. He\'s an interesting guy and he\'s certainly not dumb (just extremely irritating most of the time), so I can\'t wait to read what he says.
Another vote for mid-season pecotas.
I know that defense is the \"new undervalued commodity,\" but isn\'t offensive performance still more important than defensive performance? It\'s hard for me to buy that Gutierrez is as valuable as Dunn because one has terrible defense and one has terrible offense.
That\'s not to say I\'m sure your reasoning is wrong - in fact, it might be pretty darn clever. But it\'s a pretty hard thing to prove since we still have trouble quantifying defense. Does anyone have a number on *how much* more valuable offensive performance is than defense? I\'m sure there\'s a good general rule out there, I\'m just not sure what it is.
I don\'t mean to be insulting here, but...
Your post just said, \"There are some smart people in baseball, TRUST me. I can\'t say anymore, but it would BLOW YOUR MIND.\"
My guess is that the \"insider metrics\" are only incrementally better than the metrics we have access to. And until I see substantial information convincing me otherwise combined with teams no longer doing things like signing Barry Zito to a huge contract or trading Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg, my mind won\'t change on the matter.
Again, I don\'t mean to offend. I\'m just skeptical that the information front offices have is *that* far ahead of the information people like BP readers have. But I do think it would be pretty cool if I was wrong...
Wow, how much better would this roster look if the Dodgers had NOT traded Andy Laroche?
Even with Joe\'s plan (which I think is a good one), the Dodgers would be taking on significant risk with Durham, Weeks, and Hu planned as regulars. None of those guys have a GOOD backup plan besides the ones Joe mentioned (sliding Dewitt back to 2b and putting god-knows-who at 3rd, sliding Kemp back to cf and putting anyone-not-named-Pierre in LF).
I would also like to point out that Joe has Hu slotted for ss and no one on the bench who can really cover for him in an emergency. With that much risk in the infield, it seems like it would be a good idea to sign/trade for a bench/utility guy that can play 2b/3b/ss. I\'m not sure Tony Abreu is the guy you want to fill that role.
As far as I know, anecdotes like these are rare in the BP \"Player Profiles.\" I consider that to be a good thing.
The problems I see here are:
1. Do the Cubs have any pitching left to send?
2. Is Crisp better or worse right now than, say, Felix Pie?
3. I\'m not sure there\'s a match in value in the set of [Cubs farm pitchers]<--->[Rangers catchers]
I don\'t think it\' a question of whether Bradley can \"still\" play the field - he NEVER could play the field (without falling apart, that is). The question is can you get him at a price that is still a bargain if he only plays 75 games.
He does seem like a good fit for the Reds who always seem to have a surplus of guys who can play OF.
I\'ve been wondering the same thing since people around here seem pretty down on Street these days. Not sure when that happened.
My guess is that the real reason is that Shields is their best pitcher and, if the Rays get in a pinch, Maddon will want to use him on short rest (over Kazmir). It\'s more tactful than saying, \"I\'m starting Shields in game 1 because he\'s better than Kaz.\"
I have to admit that I read the McCarver article yesterday and though, \"I\'ll have to bring this thing up in Joe Sheehan\'s next BP chat.\" Now I don\'t have to. Thanks for discrediting this trash, Joe.
As for philliesopher1\'s comment, I have no idea what type of person Manny is in the clubhouse. Maybe you\'re right and he was \"toxic\" to the team, and I\'m willing to believe there\'s a pretty good chance he wasn\'t very fun to have around. But the point is that he didn\'t \"pack it in\" come game-time and, like Joe said, if anyone (like McCarver) thinks he did, then we would like to see what \"trying\" looks like.
Why would Colorado have any interest in this? All of their current options at 1st and 3rd are better than Huff (and yes, I\'m considering Helton, Stewart, and Atkins) and no one really believes Cabrera has something more to offer, do they?
Extra innings of the Mets-Cubs game on Wed is what I meant, just to clarify...
Mountainhawk, I think you\'re right. I think he was even warming up in extra innings, just in case.
A while ago in one of your chats someone brought up the fact that pitchfx showed no changes in Zambrano\'s release point, contradicting what people have been saying about him \"dropping his elbow.\" I was wondering if you confirmed this? The dropped elbow obviously is consistent with rotator cuff pain. I\'m a Cubs fan looking for a glimmer of hope with the guy...I hate heading into the playoffs with Big Z being the biggest question mark.
I\'m no doctor, but I\'ve had my own experience with rotator cuff tendonitis due to rock climbing + tennis (bad combo). It\'s a \"pain tolerance\" issue, definitely, but it\'s a LOT of pain. Look at Smoltz from earlier in the year. He pitched through it for awhile, and then just decided it wasn\'t worth it. Mine got so bad that I couldn\'t throw a tennis ball for my dogs. Also, I may be wrong, but I\'m pretty sure weakness can result with continued use and I know that \"frozen shoulder\" is a possibility. As a Cubs fan, I\'m scared...