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"There does come a point where league BABIP is a better predictor, and it seems to happen somewhere between .270 and .265."
I'm surprised, but .265 does seem more likely than .240. This is a very interesting finding.
But then aren't you saying then that the best prediction at that point would be a BABIP of .270 or less? That's about the same thing as saying you should regress less than 50% towards the league average? That also seems rather dubious - you have examples of pitchers with such an extreme BABIP as .240 and they more often than not were less than .270 BABIP going forward?
This was excellent.
Any idea of the first time a fan stole a cap during the celebration?
Miller's almost certain to be in the rotation now that Carpenter is definitely out, unless he has a really bad spring training.
I would guess Matheney will want either Rosenthal or Lynn in the bullpen as the setup man. And that would probably mean Kelly becomes the 5th starter.
"Thus the appearance of a small difference in O/BIP is really artificial."
YES, YES, YES! Now can we stop applying BABIP to batter and pitcher analysis, and use it the only place it's appropriate, which is for fielding analysis.
"First, a sacrifice fly is not a time at bat, and second, sac flies for Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, and others are unknown."
I'm not sure I agree here though. Why does it matter that it's not a time at bat - it IS a plate appearance, which is what should matter for OBP?
And not knowing SF for some seasons would seem to be an argument for INCLUDING SF in the denominator for everyone, since you can't separate it out for those Ruth, Gehrig player/seasons?
When umpire Tim McClelland called him out (as was the rule at the time)...
I thought the whole crux of the pine tar reversal was that the rule book was NOT explicit about what the penalty for using a bat with pine tar was supposed to be.
At the time, MLB Rule 1.10(c) stated: "The bat handle, for not more than 18 inches from the end, may be covered or treated with any material or substance to improve the grip. Any such material or substance, which extends past the 18-inch limitation, shall cause the bat to be removed from the game."
How could you leave off Bob Gibson?!
nicknamed “The Fort,”
In the Texas League, I heard him called "Quadzilla" a few times....
"This is an invasive procedure that’s avoided unless there is strong suspicion for a torn labrum or rotator cuff."
I don't disagree with you that this is normally the case, but in Garcia's situation is seems they're doing this because all of the less invasive procedures they did the past week turned up nothing, yet he continues to complain that something is wrong, and not necessarily because they think he has a torn labrum.
I think that was Gibson's 'soft' slider. His 'hard' slider generally had less break on it, while the soft slider was more like a curveball.
Or maybe that day his hard slider was breaking as much as his soft one usuallly does, which is why he struck out 17 guys.
From seamheads.com Negro League expert Gary Ashwill:
"...this is something I looked into a few years ago. To my knowledge, Moss pitched in one game for the American Giants in 1918 (vs. the white semipro West Ends, so he doesn't show up in our [seamheads.com] DB). He lost that one game and then moved on to the marginal/semipro Havana Stars of Chicago. I don't think I have anything on him past 1918, and I haven't found him for sure in official records, though there are a few candidates."
I believe Matheny has worked extensively with Anderson and is higher on him that LaRussa was.
If I understand correctly, for hitters a 1/.92/.90 weighting out to about 7 years in the past is used.
Then the article shifts to talking about Liriano and pitchers, but it's not clear that 1/.92/.90 and 7 or so past seasons are also used for pitchers. Are pitcher's baselined using the same past weighting scheme as hitters? (And if so I'm questioning if that is correct...)
Rosario needs LOTS of improvement in his pitch blocking and just in being smoother receiving the ball. And I know the bar is low for catcher offense, but he's very pull happy at the plate and I don't see him hitting for a high average OR drawing many walks, so plus power is pretty much it for him offensively.
This is a little nit-picky, but it's also an important concept:
"..the historical record strongly suggests that replacement relievers are better pitchers than replacement starters."
It's actually that the record suggests replacement level relievers PERFORM better than replacement level starters, not that they ARE better talent-wise, as the whole idea is to set the replacment level higher for relievers so that replacement level relievers EQUAL replacement level starters (ie they have the same WARP of 0).
Westbrook is not guaranteed a spot, so Lynn and Rzepcynski will be in the mix.