fair point

Well, that seems to miss the point somewhat in that MLB players don't spontaneously generate from nothing somewhere around the on deck circle, that's kind of like saying, freshman don't get degrees, graduating seniors do....well yes.

The real issue with the CBA is not whether it is fair or not. A. It does not address what it is supposed to address (at least publicly), which is redistribution of talent - it clearly does not. Whether it does this better or worse than the previous deal is somewhat immaterial, the object is to do it correctly. B. Late round talent that could be head for overslot (the Josh Bell's and Nicky Delmonicos) won't sign. These things are very hand-wring-worthy

20 K for part time work...Ok - 20 k for part time work that precludes other work, and potentially makes impossible (or at least severely complicates) the ability to receive an education. It isn't about whether or not they are more fortunate then you or I, it is about whether they are compensated fairly, relative to the revenue they generate for people far wealthier than they are. I would much rather see money in the hands of a prospect than in the owner's pockets. If playing professional baseball becomes a financial risk relative to attending school/ taking a scholarship/ pursuing another sport, it hurts everyone except the owners

I'd love to see coverage of: Tsyuyoshi Wada, Wei-Yin Chen, Yu Darvish, Cespedes.

congratulations Rany - this is pretty fascinating.

not seeing them in firefox, chrome or safari I see nothing beneath breakout/att/coll data

I think the issue is not that they aren't perfect, but that they are basically unusable. Now if the issue was a few numbers that didn't add up, or a few odd looking comps and projections, I would be irritated as hell if everyone was complaining. But when the ten year comps seem this screwy, it doesn't really feel like "Beta". To put it another way, we would be fine if we got a rough draft of an essay with a few spelling errors, but we've been given one with paragraphs out of order and no conclusion.

I'm beginning to think of PECOTA like the guy with one hand in boiling water and one hand in ice, on average, he's comfortable. PECOTA takes these 10 year projections out of comps, but no one really ends up being half one sort of dramatic career path and half another sort of dramatic career path. They tend to follow one or the other. On average, PECOTA's long term comp are comfortable, but in reality, they are a mix of extremes that don't seem to translate well.

keep in mind that these are weighted mean forecasts, which is to say, that they are not necessarily thinking that Halladay will put up that line, but that that line is the weighted average of his 10th through 90th percentile projections. That means that in includes scenarios where he is injured, unusually ineffective, etc.

Wow, I am shocked that Cesar is PECOTA'd to hit .284/.335/.336....he hasn't matched that BA or SLG since 2004, has never OBP'd that high, how did that happen?

No to rub salt in anyone\'s wounds, but where would Chris Tillman rate in this system?