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Would just like to say any spreadsheet would be more useful if you had Berkman, Lance or a column for last name then first name. Sure it only takes a few more minutes for us to text to column but then we have to weed out the Wily Mo Pena's.
Just stumbled upon this series, this is great stuff, love the format.
and thanks for the reply.
No one is yelling, I simply framed a question that I'm curious about.
Jonathan Garcia continues to be one of the youngest players at each level. He struggled, but last year you noted he did all his damage at home, this year he struggled in that tough home park but as a legit 19 year old posted a .822 OPS on the road? Five month age difference between Pederson and Garcia. Pederson totally failed in the MWL and didn't get going until he got to light up the Pioneer League. Meanwhile Garcia was force-fed the tougher MWL pitching. Wouldn't Garcia have totally destroyed the Pioneer League if he had been the one demoted as Pederson did? Would Pederson have even come close to doing what Garcia did in the MWL? If both are corner outfielders, the scouts must really not like Garcia's game at all if Pederson is our best outfield prospect and Garcia does not get a mention.
Landry did not last long as a prospect.
BA put Barlow at number 14, any info on him?
Tiny 19 year old Jonathan Garcia leading the pitching friendly Midwest League in home runs with six. Make that all of the minor leagues with six. I guess he took that rarefied Ogden air with him to Great Lakes.
Thanks for the reply
What I am excited about is that at age 17 and 18 he has actually hit, which no one else has done in this century since Matt Kemp and James Loney, mainly because the Dodgers don't draft high school bats that can hit. Sure at 18 his power is more a product of Ogden but he's 18. Sure he's small but he just turned 19 last month.
Maybe it is the rarefied air of a real 17 year hitting in the Arizona League, followed by a solid 18 year old season hitting in the older Pioneer League that has us projecting more than is there. At least we are not alone, HQ has him at #11 though you seem to disagree on his speed and power.
Don't most young kids (17,18) out of high school hit better at home then on the road as they acclimate themselves to life as a professional? I seem to remember scouts telling me that when viewing home/road splits of teen agers. Is that true or simply BS?
Saw the twitter comment about Dodgers fans and the hand wringing over the 20th prospect. For those of us at TBLA it is not so much about the 20th prospect but the one player Garcia who we think is a top 12 prospect not getting play. It is one thing for us to swallow Landry being number nine, but it is another for Garcia to not make the top 20, when someone like Silverio does.
The fact you think Silverio at age 23 in the Cal League is a better prospect then the 18 year old Garcia in the Pioneer League just seems to say you don't like the kid, because Silverio is a non - prospect. If Silverio is really the better prospect then Garcia according to your scouting reports, then that is a bitter pill to swallow if it does indeed to turn out to be true because that just means neither will amount to a hill of beans.
Given the huge flaws that Russell and Silverio have at age 23 and 24, are you really surprised that Dodger fans are concerned that you don't think Garcia has better odds then they do of becoming a productive major leaguer?
Some fans wait all year to hear what you have to say about their prospects, and hopefully reinforce their own opinions. If they didn't care about who made up your top 20, then you could stop at 15. Instead of finding it strange I'd think you'd find it satisfying that anyone cares you take it up to 20.
Eovaldi had some special games this season but not enough of them, is he trending to relief since he can't seem to upgrade his secondary pitches. Did he get any traction from the 66 scouts?
Thanks for the answer, my point wasn't to diss what you do, but every year misses get made because of the nature of prospects, and just because someone has a favorite prospect who did not make the cut doesn't mean they don't have a chance.
Given that no one from the Isotopes made your top 20 it would seem the scouts you talked to were unimpressed with everyone.
Lindblom certainly had a bad year and hopefully it was because of how the Dodgers used him in 2010, and hopefully his arm bounces back to what he was throwing before 2010.
Thanks for the answer, and I'm also very interested in seeing Garcia in a full season league just as I'm interested in seeing Landry in same league. Seems that Garcia has more to prove to you then Landry even though Garcia is two years younger and has the arm that Landry does not possess.
Do you answer more questions via twitter regarding these ranking or in the comments here?
I am, and I could easily see a scenario where DeJesus has a longer career as a major league utility player then most of the players on this list. Would anyone really be surprised if De Jesus ends up with a more productive major league career then Alfredo Silverio? At one step away from a major league career DeJesus has already climbed the ladder that Silverio is stuck on. His defense will get him in the game, while Silverio will be fighting the tough fight of becoming a major league corner outfielder even though he has zero plate discipline.
If we only counted on the top prospect lists to determine the future of our team, we'd be missing the boats on the players they discount. Carlos Santana didn't get a sniff from anyone entering 2008, and Jerry Sands was certainly not getting much respect entering 2010.
These are great fun but they are not the end all for those of us who know every prospect in the system.
Nice job Kevin, the omission of Garcia seems glaring, as a true 18 year in the Pioneer League he seemed to hold his own. Is it strictly his size holding him down or do the scouts see an approach issue at the plate that they expect to get exploited as he moves up the chain.
Seems he has more upside then the likes of Silverio.
I'll pimp a little if no one minds.
DeJon had this say about Webster in an interview we did with him.
"Allen Webster had a big year, was that the biggest surprise of the season or did your scouting staff know what you had? - When drafted he was throwing 88-90 but after making some adjustments to his pitching mechanics and natural physical maturation he was touching 95 this year. "added five feet to his fastball". Other players of note who he thought made big strides were Buddy DeLaRosa - "touching 98 - 99 " this summer after some tweaks to his mechanics. Carlos Frias big arm."
For the complete interview
He's getting into shape by shoveling snow at the moment.
My apologies, I'll have to review my database. Thanks for the replies by the way.
Last year your sleeper was Justin Miller. I hope Sands does better. Lambo falls from number one to 12 with no stars based on how a 20 year old did in AA. Tough Love
While Withrow went from unranked last year to number two I would not be surprised to see a similar jump with Webster next year.
Seems that the one year of shoulder surgery has everyone pegging him as a relief pitcher. Last year he showed excellent gains in his command while pitching for the Isotopes, yet he continues to fall in prospect circles.
I'm curious where the Withrow elbow problems come from. Did he have them in High School? Wasn't the reason he didn't pitch in 2008 related to slicing his hand on the beach when he picked up a fish during spring training? Did the elbow problems come after his hand was healed?
Lambo is taking a beating for a 20 year old in AA. If he had not skipped the Cal League and put up a Van Slyke line would he have fallen this far?
Speaking of Van Slyke, not a believer?
According to DeJon Watson they still expect Jerry Sands to be an outfielder, he only played 1st last year because Gallagher got hurt and they didn't want to break up the outfield of Russell,Buss, Silverio. I like him as your sleeper. He was playing CF in the Pioneer League.
Was hoping for some comment on the year that Jonathan Garcia had as a 17 year old in the Arizona rookie league. Seemed impressive on the surface.
Great stuff, I also hope to see Edmonds in some type of platoon in 2010. ODawg looks to have misread the market again. Dodger fans will often wonder what happened in 2009. They aren't so enamored with Belliard that they brought him back either but instead went with the powerless Carroll.
Many observers have mentioned the Torre connection in relation to ex - Yankee's but I've yet to actually see one show up other then in the coaching ranks.
Given the Schmidt fiasco I'd be shocked if Ned goes for Bedard or Wang. Sheets can prove he's healthy today, those two can't.
Excellent job Jay.
Based on those signing and Eric Stephens Payroll spreadsheet at TBLA the Dodgers should have around $8 - 10 Million to spend on a pitcher and still stay under a $100 Million Payroll.
A little more cost certainty in 2011 with Broxton, Andre, and Kemp now under contract for 2011. Martin and Loney will have 2010 to prove they deserve more in 2011 or risk being replaced as this is the last year they will be bargains.
The Jacksonville group has made out just fine. Wish you could have joined us JtD, instead of becoming one of the decades biggest busts.
Good Luck Joe, over a decade ago BP opened a new window from which I could view baseball and while you were never my favorite writer at BP. you were a must read most of the time. Seems like only yesterday I was reading the 2002 farewell column, you had a good run and we are all better off for you having hooked up with Rany.
Looks like Lambo is trying to keep up with his former teammate. At two years younger I'm curious why he's yet to be mentioned in any of the updates with a 1.452 OPS. Russ Mitchell also putting on a display this fall.
While I'm sorry for those who didn't get the Pecota cards in time for fantasy purposes, I can't thank Nate Silver enough for the excellent job he did at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ in covering this past election. He did a service for the nation at the cost of a hobby. He choose the right path.
I don't think I could do a Colbert interview without just laughing at him when he goes mock serious. Or maybe I'd have just thrown up from all the nervous energy emanating from my stomach.
The Rays may have still have something to say about the Sox being handed the division.
So where is this deep bullpen Joe was referring to regarding the Yanks? Marte is expensive so the Dodgers can't afford him, who else would be a worthwhile pickup? Would the Yankee's consider Ian Kennedy for a stop gap like Loretta? Seems to pricey to me but I just don't much in the Yankee Bullpen that looks better then what the Dodgers have in camp.
When the Lakers moved from the Forum to Staples I had the same thing happen. We went from great corner seats to twice as expensive seats behind the basket where you couldn\'t see if someone 5\'8 sat in front of you.
I don\'t know but Andrew wins.
Vargas gets a green light? Isn\'t he the one member of the rotation who missed time last year with a sore elbow?
From The Baseball Forecaster:
3-2, 4.62 ERA in 37 IP at NYM. Another step back. Pitched poorly with NYM, even worse in minors, then went down with a sore elbow in Aug. 30-year-old journeyman with marginal skills AND a bad arm? Sign me up!
Tanana went right to 269 innings at age 20. But then he threw 246 professional innings at age 19 so 269 innings at age 20 was not that big of a jump. His arm didn\'t discombobulate until age 23.
Why would it take draconian limits to keep him from hitting 200 innings? 30 starts at 60 innings seems about right to me. BP doesn\'t expect the Dodgers to make the postseason so no October innings either. Is missing a start once a month considered draconian?
Come now Will, every Dodger Thought reader knows you have been crying wolf about Billingsley for at least the last three years.
Just curious what wall did Kuroda hit at the end of the season? Did you even look at his numbers before making such a silly claim about the best pitcher in the Dodger postseason. The guy got stronger in Aug/Sept not weaker. Maybe you are confusing June/July with being the end of the season but here in LA we play baseball into October.
We pay for premium content, we expect premium research.
Congratulations, to bad you can\'t vote for the HOF for 10 years long after Bert will need your circle.
Great info, CC is big, O is expensive, and a trade was made a long time ago in Winter Meeting time. Will the update at 09:00 inform us that Boras is a super agent and he\'s holding court?