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Is John Dank not even close or the case that even he is, he isn't serviceable one in deep mixed (20 teams 35 rosters deep)?
Watched Allen Webster 's short start. The ABs he survived, he flashed big time slider and smart sequencing. Very unfortunate that he couldn't pitch well after behind the count and/or without fastball command.
At the Sam time, even atheist go to church to observe people. If you want to be the best baseball writer, you may have to try things you don't like.
I will be purchasing this despite religiously follow BP Prospect team articles, since I want BP to do well. Thanks for Dave 's comment, and my follow up question is: how PECOTA works for prospects, especially 2014?
Guilty of worrying Price, though Paul you should capitalize the last word so everyone knows what you meant!
Second to @jonmischa, I voiced my opinion in Harry Pavlidis's peice last Friday. ( http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20287 ) And in last game Maurer pitched, he only got 3 swinging strikes, but they are from a CU, a SL, and a FF. Which means although we don't see Maruer struck out as many batters (only 2 compared to 5 in previous matchup with Rangers) he actually try to stabilized his secondary further without getting hit hard like his first couple starts this season (although most of his CH and CU are threw for balls.) As long as his secondary stuff is usable, based on how much his fastball and slider move, hitters would have hard time to hit with authority.
Not try to disagree with Paul Sporer or Bret here, but Brandon Maurer has better upside compare to Eraser, who I also believe in. Compare their arsenal, I'd say if both were given opportunities, there is no reason to discount Maurer's effort trying to get his secondary working in Major league level.
Eraser will get his chance when he is healthy and has a couple good outings in Tacoma. But in terms of rest of season on stats, unless Maurer can't harness his secondary, which he displayed in spring training, Eraser will have to have catch up with everything clicking for him.
I have grown interest in Brandon Maurer and thinking about following this young man's development in major. Will keep an eye on his pitch f/x data going forward.
I only watched Maurer pitched against Texas in person, which happened to be the only decent game he pitched. With the #SSS, we can see his slider wasn't working until last Sunday against Rangers.
Maurer's deep arsenal helped him get to two strikes easily. But when he needed that slider, sometimes he hung it on outside (there are ones out of zone but got hammered.) He got eight swinging strikes on sliders this year, all of them happen in the Rangers game. 14 of 19 Maurer's strikeout pitch are from slider, a pitch which still result into .450 BABIP. Let alone other breaking ball with crazy outcomes .600 BABIP for (curve ball and changeup.)
Maurer's breaking ball will be critical going forward, hence it's expected that he would use his next couple starts stabilizing curve and changup by pitching backwards, then use fastball w/ movement or slider to put out hitters.
Given time, I wouldn't expect less from Maurer than Ryu.
This is exactly why I avoid Austin Hedges in this year's keeper lg prospect draft. Well, he was drafted one spot before my pick so I didn't get to draft him.
But I'd pay $$ to see Hedges plays ball. No doubt. Just not in fantasy.
I wonder in this case if Russell Martin has any influence, if at all, on McDonald and Nova, a.k.a. pitching backwards.
Has it confirm that the fan is not a scout or some baseball insider?
Did I miss the boat? I thought this trend should start today but obvi. there was some sort of cult on this before. http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=what%20is%20a%20curveball
Did Derek Jeter receive mentions in base running? Maybe it's fan biased but I recalled his base running decision has always been high praised. Not sure if he was among best in the league, which is my question here.
Like your articles and appreciated your recent appearance on Fantasy Hour podcast. Was wonder about your Chris Heisey pick. To me, I am hesitated since he has little secondary skill, but he surprised you with decent pop from time to time and the fact that he bats two hole is a big one I am consider moving in. # months worth of production is probably easier to quantify in Roto than H2H, assuming no roster crunch (opportunity cost).
After my paragraph I am still puzzled on assigning FAAB bid on him. would $7/$100 too high in deep mix?
Side note to Manny's HR. It's also no. 6999 on CPBL.
Just sharing, Keith Law's latest podcast "Behind the dish" interviewed Buster Posey 's agent. Worth a listen.
Ha, but Paul Sporer def. is. I like most of your bold prediction, in fact. And I am not against Paul at all, just love Kris Medlen and Tim Hudson more than loving Paul Maholm. I get how he can come as bargin, but Paul Maholm being the most valuable pitcher is probably signaling Braves in huge disappointments at the end of season.
The last one made me cringed. Two BP Pauls' love toward the third Paul here in well-documented (in articles or in the air). But I still cringed.
Does an Astro pitchers' win count all the way after he got traded? i.e. Bud Norris & Lucas Harrell.
Presumably this is not including Yu Darvish since some lg doesn't count 3/31? I was looking for him in Auto Start.
Would love to see that step forward from Smoak. Jason Churchill has good things to say about him as well, and I pay attention to qualitative analysis more at this point than stats for Smoak.
To peak at Alex Gordon's stat, he compiled 400AB of tAv around .250. So Smoak is still considerably worse. This year is probably a do-or-die year for Smoak, and I hope the off-field distraction can be a thing in the past for him.
D'Arnoud had scouts love all over despite not play single major lg game. Grandal has last year's sample for your reference. Bad news for Devin Mesoroca, he has a full season of P/T stats. This would be my rank personally. Given Devin 's receiving struggle, he has to hit way more to be a top of this group (bad glove in Dusty Baker's eye = less playing time.)
Zack Greinke, LOL.
It's worth noting that Brothers Elephants 's logo is somewhat close to A's mascot...of which I root for years grew up in Taiwan.
So RJ, what's your PS Network ID?
LOL on Hooters one, I meant, com'on! people need to eat lunch instead of spray on their monitors.
I just want to say the first sentence I said to myself a couple times and now it won't go away.
"We are going to WARP on this thing."
Dodgers: LOL I got Both headline players at the end, you suckers!!
The lefty-righty seesaw blade lineup theorem aside, if putting Werth 2nd based on his OBP (.380 2012, .362 career.) then hit Harper 3rd (well, we are all counting on higher than his .340 rookie campaign) could be justified in OBP. Yet, haven't seen a lineup that follow by OBP alone. I wonder if cliches like sophomore slump or pressure of #3 spot applicable on Mr. Harper.
Ryan Raburn's Spring Training stats from 2010 -2013
You are welcome.
(synopsis: don't pick him in your fantasy league based on spring training stats.)
I wonder what kind of leadership Papelbon is looking for, someone older than him to speak up?
Thank you for doing this work quantifying the effect. Platoon strategy has been discuss for long, but never (I yet have) seen someone was able to quantify this.
The follow up question is, Folwer's home stats seems short. Dexter Folwer's 2012 Home split was an astounding .332/.431/.553 in 244 AB. If default Folwer home plays, he should have the same line as his home split. Did I miss something?
With all due respect, I still don't understand why kids should be looking up to athletes at all.
I am in a 16 team mixed keeper lg and auction-base draft, with 25 roster spots; and a 20 teams mixed keeper lg with incentive-base draft order, with 35 roster spot (including 4 minor league spots). I 've participated in redraft yearly mixed lg and won 16 teams and 14 teams but choked on 10 teams league. I definitely feel what Mr Carty meant.
While myself being waiver wire shark and FAAB auction manic, draft is my weakness. The blind side of stats (or my usage of stats) led my trapped with the star due for rebound or expected raising value that never actualized. Even with mental notes of not over valuing prospects, I still tie myself with Jake McGee/Matt Moore in the past couple years.
Still, pick scrubs that stood out when your season is in rear mirror is something you can brag about in your annual fantasy league luncheon. And I enjoy picking and trading prospects for big leaguers a lot. With out -only lg, and try to find 14 or 16 reasonable men that doesn't cause saga can even be a hassle that BP may never have an article about. C'est la vie, I guess.
That's why I stick with keeper league. Seldomly a team GM can pull yearly fluke and not make you learn something from him. You want to keep Josh Hamilton for reasonable contract? Sign him to a multi years like Angels and take on the consequence later year (whether it's performance drop, or not). If your time investment not pay out for this season, in a keeper league you may collect your rewards in a couple years. It's a continuously improvement process, not one off luck or not season.
I certainly hope for analysis from BP writers for deep keeper leagues, but also realize there is a smaller market for it. At least I appreciate how expert values the gratifying effect of picking up less known player to outperform just like I do.
WHO ARE YOU KIDDING AROD OF COURSE IS AN AWESOME GUY SO ARE CANO TEXI JETER AND YOUR MOTHER.
(Please flag it inappropriate if you can't decipher this is trying to be funny.)
Seriously though, the book may be a waste of resource, but if these repetition and positive reinforcement is all the star players need to get going again, perhaps Kevin Long did his job. Which may be an more interesting point to write about--whether the coaches are doing their job by bringing the best knowledge in the world.....or not. It's like saying the tactic approach that Ron Washington bunting a player who have .400 OBP is moronic, however, if that bunting in grand schema didn't cause the team a win over course of season (which probably is, i know, bad analog), Ron Washington may have done his job.
Thanks for amusing article though.
Now just hope my keeper team league don't read this piece.
Why is only B has Huzzah!? This must mean something.
Justin Morneau & Adam Dunn
Is it "save" to assume that Romo is extremely valuable in the league that awarded both Save and Hold? My league award points to Saves 2:1 Holds, hence in my mind Romo is awesome either way, as long as he kept his peripheral stats up and mostly comes in save situation.
Derek, this is awesome! Looking forward to offensive side of thing, especially on topics like batting order, platoon split and aforementioned stolen base topic.
"His physical tools are not on trial, but his mental tools would be wise to find a good alibi."
Such a good quote on Escobar.
For a reliever like Lopez, I wonder if Rockies feel that strongly of him as bullpen help...plus the quote "an expensive setup man, no matter how good, is a luxury a losing team can do without" feel like applicable to Rockies as well.
What does this trade say about Rox Brother though?
Google search: new market inefficiency baseball
Sabean: secret of new Giants dynasty : Aging baseball player
"behind the (aging) curve" helps aging rosters clinched WS twice in 3 years
a deep look of attrition rate of prospects and turnover rate in rosters of SF Giants
33yrs is not old, neither is 37.
PECOTA got dumped by A-Rod during offseason hence she is so mad at him, leading to the witch curse--and it came true.
I'd like to see if Brian Cashman can pull the trademark magic ward again -- A-Rod wasn't trade target for Yankees before Aaron Boone hurt himself playing basketball in off-season. But with plan 189 in place, it'd be interesting speculation of what Cashman can do.
This winter is going to be chill for New York.
Money quote of the day: " It’s just a whole new league when the Yankees let $2 million get between them and their best option. And when it’s the Pirates waiting with pen in hand. "
Can you put a sad face behind the last sentence? Thanks!
I wonder if Hunter get to hit ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder at all. Jim Leyland is not Mike Scioscia. Well, or the other around however you like it.
Ian, when is your version of Bang! (board game reference) coming out? I cannot wait to play these characters on Thanksgiving table (speaks much to my foreign personality and respect to Thanksgiving, huh?)
No, I am not joking.
Jim from Seattle
This is a wild throw in the dark, but I would like provide another guesss-planation. With the pitchers as a group are more dominate than 2000, would it be fair to say 118 attempts are from the skipper eager to "manufacture runs?" I guess the context of situation or percentage may paint a more accurate picture.
Earlier last decade we would expect for much power display than foot race, yet today we combined have seen bunt+stolen base arisen(*stats needed).
Could it be the conspiracy theories that Ron Washington and Don Mattingly make Jay Jaffe's #buntfuck hashtag trending? I'd leave it up to you.
The scouts I sat with usually have more than one stopwatch. You want someone you just ran into can have one too if she/he forgot theirs, or if the reliable stopwatch actually broke.
Same here. I believe I contribute to Extra Innings too.
Probably because Kevin didn't buy them on Amazon....otherwise would.
Really impressive work, dude. Ian the best!
Oh by the way, The Yankees plan for future? #Plan189, The End.
The best piece of today,love it!
I don't think it's bad idea to hustle for the following two players:
9. Shane Robinson: 1.24
10. Alcides Escobar: 1.45
Yet these two surprised me more than Jesus Montero as #2. Montero also runs hard to cover behind 1B when the play happens in left side of infield. I 've seen him high five-ing fans on 1B side after covering. Purely awesome.
Are you asking me? No. Sam always has something up in his sleeve. I bet the order actually mean something worthy decoding. This article means a lot, at least to me.
Tell me this order mean something.
Great article Doug! Would you mind go in-depth about slide step? One scout praised about slide step change up from a righty to me, make me wonder how efficient slide step is from the stretch from either mechanism and timing perspective.
I got one when he is not Ace...."Why do we fell, Masterson?"
Daily hit idea for Mariners: Now that Ichiro is gone, Mariners officially becomes a 4A team that traps Felix but offer ol' timers to come back.
"ON Zip Code: M5V 1J1: Website: bluejays.com: Phone: 416-341-1000 ... Baseball Operations and General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos ."
There you go.
Not pointing fingers but does any of this attribute to catcher at all?
Thanks Derek, and I found myself enjoy your article in another level of joy today :)
One thing I'd like to share, echo to Derek's point on opportunity cost, is that players who worth platooning are usually have a big swing between shallow league and deep league in terms of value. Yes, if you can find the split data like Joe Girardi believing in his binder, you have a chance to utilize some players that are not valuable in standard league but extremely useful in deep league.
My favorite example is David Murphy. Technically a fourth outfielder in reality or standard league, this year he is sporting a split as following:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
v.s. Left .355 .412 .387 .799
v.s. Right .266 .367 .478 .845
You may use Derek's stabilization against my view. The fact is, Murphy has only 31 at bat against righty this year. While this year's OPS only in favor less than 50 points, his career split shows a bigger gap (180 points in OPS), and Ron Washington definitely buy in to that.
My point being, in a deep league (my is 35*20 with 4 spots for minor league players, yeah, no Kevin Goldstein-advertised prospects will be left in FA.), knowing how player could be platoon or even how skippers write their lineup is huge for managing roster in a daily league. Not to mention I am willing to take my chance and hoping the split statistically help my team in a greater sample size. The players who are platooning lose their value, however, if you can find the pearl in sands by discovering split pages, you may or may not just find a new value system even PFM can't tell you.
My example is extreme in a way that not many readers play in such deep keeper league. Yet I found discovering such hidden jewel much accomplished than composing an all-star team in a public league. I hope you will like this too.
Greatly appreciate Derek's article and all of you spend time reading this long a** comment.
What if I platoon Derek Jeter with some other fulltime SS -- just to avoid when Jeter match up with quality pitchers? With righty that own ERA+ over 100 (or has a name I scare to death) I use another SS instead. I understand wasting quality player on bench isn't optimal, but if the league is deep and other league mates ain't idiot, replacement level FA are hard to come by and trade is less likely to pull off in your favor.
Mr. Derek Carty, I would like to see your take on platooning.
Thanks for the in-depth analysis on James Shields. However, is it just me or this implies James Shields ' pitches selection "Actually" plan to depend on his teammates? We used to learn that pitchers have no control (or little) on where the ball in play goes, which I assume including the GB/FB ratio. Not to mention Shields is doing this by unconventional secondary pitches instead of sinker.
Without going cross examining other pitchers (I would assume someone like Doug Fister would do the same if he intends to "NOT" utilize his infield teammates as much, will he drop the sinker usage), would love to see my logic being examined by public first.
uh, actually try to say from half way through the article was in bold....
Thanks for the content...though maybe something is off on Caplock (actually, ON?)
Totally agree your point of view but would like to throw one out there (not necessarily contradict your theory): Marlins were not set up to signed Miguel Cabrera or Dan Uggla long term. Before this year there were plenty of speculation that they were on their mid-season routine of trading for prospects instead of signing long term deal. Without long term deal, players go on arbitration more often not only due to their own performance but also Marlins's tight string.
If we could see the cases where players went through arbitration hearing yet decide not to sign with original club at their own will (not being traded away), especially ones that declined a more lucrative offer (which would be hard to proved), we may be able to say arbitration really drives players away. Even the club offered the best money on the table.
Thanks for your work regardless!
@Sam, Jeff Cirillo is on Twitter, yet I haven't found him yet. Last time I didn't recognize him until the second day I sat behind him. He sighed that "they said you don't get recognized outside of boxscore" (or something like that), and I blamed it to his designer shade.
On Yankees comment: I wonder if that's to do with the dominance of opposing starters, which gone through the minimum through 3, and got Jeter out as the first out at fourth inning. Or that's Jeter's third turn which means at least 7(LOB+Runs)during first three innings. [Research topic]
@Sam, I honestly thought "Below" is intended for pun on something else. But I couldn't figure out what that would be.
Quote: "Below: GIVE ME THE BALL BACK JERKS"
Jim: Is Sam teasing about Beltre's "No Cup Incident"?
Oh, the pitcher's name. Damn it.
I know this sounds improbable, but is it possible to interpret that high BABIP indicates hitter's ability to hit the balls into the gap? (I admit Joey Votto sparks that idea in my mind more then Melky does.)
Will Wei-Yin Chen surpass Wang? I'm bookmarking this webpage and hopefully by the time Chen pass Wang, we still have a thing call bookmark. (or My Favorite, however you fav.)
What's your take on the new "No shake rule" (from http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_9a940dd3-3e2a-5ff2-8f7a-7835b6726679.html ) and what's the reasoning behind this? I am guessing it's to do with player development, but would love to hear your comment.
One thing to point out -- given the access to information may not be level play ground -- is that things change on player's mechanic and playing style *may* have a bigger impact toward projection than regress to mean, which is the reason we love BP authors analyzing SO/LD rate, pitching mechanic, and learning scouting knowledge to find that sustainable success. I like how you said "easy isn't always the best" being a competitive Fantasy Baseball manager/player, the more understanding toward the players actually help your game than outright looking at stat sheets, granted the latter is what matters in Fantasy.
One reflection I developed myself is that in reality Baseball amazes us like in fantasy, yet in Fantasy Baseball we are thirsty for information in reality.
If Kenny Williams can sell Adam Dunn before trade deadline and get considerable prospects in return, it would actually be really non-Kenny Williams. I expect him trade for this year by mortgage the future.
Yeah he is not someone I would stash away now. I was there in the game hence I knew about the start. Worth noting that Manny was hanging out in the dugout next day even he was not in the lineup. Okay maybe that's not really worth noting. He just kind of hanging out. Manny style.
Manny Ramirez started a game on 6/2 but only last one PA (DH). Appreciate the article so I want to point this out before the value being discounted.
Dear Derek and fellow Fantasy GMs:
I'm in a 20*35 keeper CBS scoring league. With 3 DL spots, I constantly fill it up on purpose (i.e. even for pitchers go on Tommy John). It strikes me the most that people can't risk on holding players have no use (which may be the reason my league mates think I'm dumb) to calculate the timing of DL actualized and turn into value for your team (i.e. a better player than you can find in FA pool).
As Derek Carty the Great, you hold your own reason by playing two injured players. Fantasy baseball is so much about reality, yet the length of DL time players expect to spend, which could be fantasy from time to time, oppose to your league scoring period shall be self explanatory on your decision of keeping/dumping injured players in your league.
p.s. Why haven't we see @DerekCartyTheGreat on Twitter yet? I will go register one if I don't see that happen on Monday, Ciao!
Any chance we see Brad Pit? Oh, I mean, Billy Beane.
I'm not really sure how Howie Kendrick took a step backwards in 2010 when had had nearly 250 more AB than his previous career high. No, the superstar numbers aren't there by a long shot, but his ability to *finally* get through a full season tells me there might still be some gas in the tank - at least to propel him to 3 stars in your rankings.
One guy who has been hot is Chris Marrero, Washington's former first-round pick in the 2006 draft (15th overall). Despite a lackluster .259 average for AA Harrisburg, he's homered in his last 4 games. Is his power finally coming along, or is it too early to tell?