Still an easy mistake to make. I have to admit my first reaction to the trade as a Carter owner in an AL only league was "darn, he's been traded out of the league," I hope this does turn out to be a positive for Carter, he sure looked like a potential star a few years ago, now this looks like his last clear opportunity for a career as a major league regular.

Of course you mean 430 OBP for Jackie Bradley, not OPS.

Any thoughts on when the Rangers are likely to promote Olt to AAA? While he is blocked at the major league level, at 23 going on 24 I would think that you would want to get him to the cusp of the majors as soon as possible. Other that striking out a bit more than you might like, it would seem that there is little more for him to prove in AA.

Even if it is the expected win percentage used to run the monte carlo simulation and not an actual winning percentage it still seems like a stretch to expect the Angels to win 58% of their games for the next five months, or, for that matter, to gain ground on the Rangers given that the Rangers expected winning pecentage in signficantly higher than that of the Angels.

if the Angels win .541 of their remaining games, as projected, that will net them another 78. Added to the 6 wins they have so far that adds up to 84, not 89. Why isn't their projected record 84-78?

Any opinion about who is better defensively in cf if you get things to a point, perhaps by next year, where you could fit both in the same outfield. I know that Trout is supposed to be very good defensively, but he would really have to go some to be better than Bourjos, who seems to be just spectacular out there.

With last year's run to the World Series, Texas really has de-coupled from what is going on elsewhere at the moment. The secondary market has been very tight. With only a few hundred tickets left by game day there is never a point at which supply so outnumbers demand that the market crashes. Instead the trend in the days approaching games has been for prices to increase. That may not continue throughout the season, but for right now the smart move if you want nice seats to a weekday Rangers game is to buy well in advance.

that is exactly what is happening to me as well. Any solutions?

I think you meant 8-10 years at near 30 million. Anyway, Cliff Lee may not be an inner circle HOFer quite yet, but if they are out of the race and could get a return including a top nearly ready position prospect at a position of need (like Smoak) they would have to consider it. More likely, they have a competitive season and he goes where he goes after the season. While I'm not sure I would just hand out 10 years at 30 million do we really know that is Pujols' bottom line. 8x28 plus a vesting option or two seems like something both sides should be interested in. I'm surprised the Cardinals don't seem to be putting up more of a fight to get this done or at least shown themselves to have gone the last mile.

Maybe this was mentioned somewhere along the way and I missed it, but if PECOTA is projecting a .273 BA and 13 hrs for Valencia, who is projecting the .254 BA, 12 hrs and somewhat lower plate appearances shown for Valencia in the chart, and on which the $5 valuation is presumably based?

I understand the stated purpose of JAWS is to raise the bar for the HOF by adding only players who are above average at their position. And, I suppose that makes a good degree of sense at positions where we have had great players come and go over more than 100 years and we don't want to repeat the mistakes that were made in allowing marginally candidates in a long time ago. I don't think this model works for relief pitchers given that the modern relief pitcher is such a relatively new innovation. It doesn't make sense to me that the door to HOF for relievers has to slam shut once Rivera gets in because he raises the RAJAWS standard for the position by 5-10 points all by himself. I also wonder how Eck can be used to set the standard when much of his value came as a starting pitcher. At least for me, a couple of JAWS points either from Wilhelm and Gossage, significantly ahead of Sutter seems likes as reasonable qualification as any for Smith to make it in.

how would he compare to Walden? Sounds similar in a lot of ways.

unfortunately, this year he was Mark Reynolds without the power. Which is a little like being Otis Nixon, only much slower.

Kind of a related issue. When Bengie Molina came up earlier this year "a triple short of the cycle" and got it, despite only having tripled on 5 prior occasions in five thousand prior at bats, was that the least likely conversion of a "triple short of a cycle" ever to have occurred?

Do you think that Carter will be on the A's roster from opening day? Sure looked like he could use a bit more AAA time during that 0 fer streak to start his career. He's been better since of course, but not so much as to make me think that he is completely ready.

or if you can't do all tools, at least a 20-80 rating on the prospect's best tool.

I certainly understand why you assume Lee walks after this year, but CJ is under club control for 2011 and it seems like a pretty tough assumption to assume that he walks too and they don't make any kind of move to replace him with a free agent.

Kevin, Any kind of minor league equivalency of Chris Davis's number would say that he can perform at the major league level. And while Nelson Cruz failed a couple of times at the major league level, eventually his huge minor league numbers translated into major league success. Maybe too big of a question for this format, but you hinted at it on your comment on Davis. How much of a believer are you in the phenomenon of a AAAA hitter, as opposed to the idea that given enough chances the guys putting up big numbers at AAA are likely to eventually put up similar (translated) numbers at the major league level?

Greg Halman continues to give new meaning to three true outcomes. Since mentioned in your June 24 future shock, in 36 plate appearances, he has nine hits, including 5 hrs, three doubles and one single, 5 walks, 14 strikeouts, and exactly 8 outs that weren't by strikeouts. slg avg. for the season now up to .614 and hr percentage the best in the minors with Stanton now up. Is it possible for there to be an even more extreme version of Mark Reynolds in the majors?

I don't think Andrus needs to improve significantly as a defender to be a gold glover, its just very unusual to win that award as a rookie even if deserved. Even if his gold glove calibre defense ends up a bit short of Vizquel and Ozzie Smith, a .300 hitter who walks a reasonable amount (nothing in what he did last year gives any strong reason for concern about his ability to take a walk), wins gold gloves, and steals bases may not be a "superstar" in the Arod sense of the word, but given how early he has started his career, and how long it will likely last, it does sound like a description of a hall of famer.

As a related question how much deeper than 11 would you go three stars for the Rays and for the Rangers. My guess is that the Rangers go at least 15 deep at 3 stars and that is at least part of the explanation.

that's good to hear. It certainly doesn't seem like his issues are the type that will get any better if he doesn't see a curveball for five months.

You would think that Halman really could have used a winter ball gig to keep working on pitch recognition and contact. Would the reason a player like that wouldn't play winter ball be because none of the teams in the major winter leagues wanted to commit at bats to him or just a desire to step back for a bit before going at it again in the spring?

I think it also helps a great deal to have a dominant guy--perhaps even your best pitcher, who is not a closer, and can be used to good effect in the fireman role. While Washington does not make either list, for example, I expect that he got a lot smarter when Feliz showed up as he was used exclusively in high leverage situations, whatever inning they developed in, and to very good effect.

Anything new regarding Dallas Braden? Latest reports were that a tramautized nerve wasn't healing. Could this be career threatening?

Looks like Chris Carter is on the way up. After his latest crazy good game last night (3-5, hr, double, walk), hitting a high water mark for the season is OPS and SLG, this morning minorleaguebaseball.com lists him on the Sacramento River Cats. Although it will be a small sample size, it will be interesting to see if he struggles initially as he did (at least relatively) at the beginning of this season at AA, or if just keeps on mashing.

Finally, no hits to report on regarding Chris Carter. Of course the fact that Midland had the night off might have had something to do with that.

I've always thought of batting average on balls in play as something on which you could get lucky, perhaps for an extended period. But contact is a skill, and when you have only struck out 2 times in your last 37 at bats, around 10% on over your last 100 at bats, and your name is Chris Carter, that says to me that something important and different is going on with him. Whether he can maintain an improved contact rate at the next level is what we now need to know--isn't he ready for a shot at AAA, wouldn't a little acceleration ahead of one level a year be in order here?

I agree that this is definitely the whole in the approach. No one (except perhaps a player determined to avoid walks at all costs, of which a few probably exist) goes up at a 3-0 count determined to swing no matter what. Rather they will swing if it is the pitch they are looking for and lay off if it is not, or if it is clearly a ball. If you could give hitters choosing that strategy credit for the walks they take when a pitch isn't what they were looking for, in addition to all the hits they get when it is, I strongly suspect that this is clearly the better strategy. I also suspect that especially for those hitters with a reasonable probablity of doing more than getting a single if they do manage to hit the ball. Of course, the best strategy is also very dependant on the number of outs and the baserunners. Taking makes little sense as a strategy if you are the number 8 hitter with the pitcher on deck, and there are two outs and runners on second and third, it makes a lot more sense if there is a runner on first or the bases are empty and you are a singles hitter.