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"Is there ever a time to doubt Boras’s ability to find an appropriate deal? Never."
Just don't tell that to Ryan Madson...
"Adam Eaton just signed a three-year deal for $24 million, and he's never had an ERA below 4.00 or thrown 200 innings in any season. Matsuzaka is, um, better than that."
Too bad that Dice K ended up with just 1 season of being, um, better than that and even that requires some cutting-and-pasting. (2007's 204 IP and 2008's 2.90 ERA).
Sorry, didn't mean to imply they lost the WS in 2009 and 2010 (although they lose it in 2009). I meant that they didn't win it in 2009 or 2010 (or 2011). Hence, they were trying to win their 2nd in 4 years (not 3).
The Phillies were not trying to win their 2nd world series in three years. They were trying to win their 2nd WS in four years. They won in 2008, and lost in 2009 and 2010.
This article is exactly why the PFM needs a complete overhaul. I hate using words like "useless", but PFM is...lacking in use...because it doesn't seem to weight the categories in a way to discount Davis, who gets the majority of his value from 1 stat (SB)
If you go to PFM and just run it with the default parameters, Davis is "worth" over $20. Abreu is worth $4. Some other guys right behind Davis? Longoria. Josh Hamilton. Posey.
PFM is giving terrible advice.
This thread almost made
me forget Charlie Sheen is
still alive. Crazy.
Need to change the title to 'closed'...as PFM isn't open right now.
hmmm....6x6 with Holds and OPS. No pitchers are projecting any Holds. And OPS "feels" underweighted (and SBs overweighted)---either that, or Rajai Davis is a stud even in OPS leagues.
lots of pages...lots of dead trees...any plans to get on ibooks/kindle?
Versus LHP, for his career...he's a .225 hitter over 960 ABs, which is approximately 1/3rd of his ABs.
He had 14 HR against LHP, and 6 in 2009. He has 1 so far this year (insert "small sample" legalese here)
And in a short series, (ie., the World Series) the Yankees used Pettite, CC and Marte(!) to strike him out 13 times.
If 35 year-old journeyman LOOGYs can render a "in his prime" Howard useless...what does Howard look like when HE is 35? (or 36, or 37...)
Bring back Predicatron... I would like to defend my 2008 Top Ten finish...
MLB At Bat is a must have. Rotowire has a free app with free info so no need to subscribe and pay. Twitter has a lot of apps and follow Will and Rotoworld and others for free updates.
Team Tracker seems to work fine. I just added a few random free agents to a team I just created on the IPad.
It's a compliment to both Apple and BP that (a) first thing I did this AM was get my IPad and 2nd thing I did was go to BP.
Site looks great. IPad is good so far too.
Will, good luck with the Louisville delivery. :)
The NFL can put some pizzaz into a Chiefs-Browns game because sports betting is HUGE in the NFL. Betting drives so much of these trends, you can't really compare apples to apples whether it's mobile deals, or TV ratings. And if you are routinely gamblings $50/100/500 per game...you will for sure have no problem picking up some sort of NFL package. MLB doesn't have as many gambling addicted degenerates.
You play him since you are paying anyway. The closer you get to the end of his contract the more palatable a trade might become. ie, nobody will touch him now but if in the final year he happens to be having a very good year, somebody might want him for half a season, or slightly more.
Also, you put him on waivers every August and hopes Kenny Williams comes calling again, too.
Should we be sending the books back to Amazon? Are THOSE Pecota numbers any good? I can't even tell anymore what's what. The season ended 5.5 months ago---that's a long time to have worked this all out. Hopefully somebody will spend the Summer fixing this. Many drafts are already over this year.
Will, if the regularly scheduled PECOTA updates are silly, should we get information from another website? Like, a baseball site?
PS I just donated, more than $5.
Don't do dollars---that's what PFM is for
I think your method of tiers is just fine. People have to understand that no projection system or ranking system or tier system is 100% accurate. Even if they were ranked to the penny of value---it wouldn't mean too much since Actuals will vary from Expected Value. It is enough, on draft day, to know that if you need a 2B and it's getting late...grab one from tier 3 before you get stuck with one from tier 4, or 5.
"One thing before we get going—these runs scored totals look low to me across the board, so just make a mental note that the number should probably be higher, but also keep in mind how they fare relative to other players. So, don't think "Pujols will score 97 runs," think "Pujols is expected to score more runs than Prince Fielder. Pujols is still the top pick in the game in my mind—this projection seems low to me"
Is PECOTA ready for prime time yet? or still in "beta"?
I wouldn't put Hochevar in the same sentence, paragraph or article as Ryan Anderson as a "miss" just yet. Still young enough to make it work, had a decent enough WHIP in the first half last year, and good K:BB rate in July/August (including 13 in one game) when he started using his new pitch (splitter) but gave up too many HR. Fell apart/tired in September. He's 26. He'll probably turn into a pretty decent enough pitcher---for the Royals to lose in some reverse Gil Meche free agency deal in a few years.
Adidas, fat laces, Lee Jeans...the 80s were great. Bring back Jordache jeans.
Joe Sheehan hates Ryan Howard.
How can Ryan be overrated if his own team isn't giving him a long term deal (they realize his weaknesses) and just arbitration him every year? Overrated would be giving him a Pujols or AROD contract. That would be stupid.
How can Ryan be overated if he led his league in HR last year? And in RBI? It is a lie to say he led the league in those categories? Did he hit 25 HR and 75 RBI last year but we all sat around and said "Ryan is the BESTEST in the WORLD!!" ? Nobody says that. Guys who lead the league in HR and RBI go to the all star game---it just is. True, he doesn't lead in VORP. True, he's not the 2nd best or 3rd best all around first baseman.
But he hits bombs, and lots of them, and plays for the world champions. He probably has 1 more really good HR/RBI left him before he does the swan dive off the Mo Vaugn/Cecil Fielder/Ortiz plank.
Sheehan hates Ryan Howard.
steroids and a corked bat? Say it ain't So Sosa!!!
I didn't attend any Tea Parties and I am gather they attracted their share of nutjobs (what demonstrations don't?).
However, it's disingenuous to say that the Tea Parties were designed to protect 5% of taxpayers.
First, we are told that "95% of taxpayers will not see their taxes raised." This may be true (in the short term only) with respect to direct federal taxes. However, all citizens are likely to see significant tax increases in walks of life particularly as the "cap and trade" taxes affect rising cost of energy. Also, a stipulation of the "stimulus" money given to the states is that the states must raise taxes on small businesses (mostly via things like the Unemployment Insurance, and these tax increases are the reason why the governors of Louisiana and South Carolina were reluctant to take some of the money.) It's easy to say "only 5% will pay higher taxes" but it's not going to be true.
Second, the forecasted budget deficits over the next 8 years are staggering. Those 8 years of deficit spending exceed the sum of all deficits from 1789, when George Washington took office, through 2008 when George Bush left office. It's so big it's incomprehensible. Deficits can only be solved through 3 methods: 1) increase tax revenues, 2) decrease government spending, 3) print money like there is no tomorrow and let your children/grandchildren repay it. The government has shown no interest in reducing spending (quite the opposite during the past 8 years and projected next 8 years). It may end up printing money (and then say hello to hyper inflation) It will most likely go after higher tax revenues.
Third, the top 10% of wage earners pay ~75% of the taxes. That top decile is $92,500. If you aren't making that, chances are somebody you know is and chances are numerous people on this site are. $92,500 is a lot of money on the one hand---but it is far from "rich". Every time I hear, "the rich must pay their fair share", I ask the question: "What would we like the top 10% to pay? Would we like them to pay 80% of the taxes? 85%? 100%? 110%? What is their fair share?"
I write not as a Democrat or a Republican (both are terrible in their modern incarnations) but as a citizen who has worked very hard to achieve what I have achieved in life. I pay a lot of tax, and I still have significant school loans that me and and my wife will be paying for another 10 years (maybe 15 if the taxes continue to rise).
Lastly, regarding your comment that only a "rich little boy or girl" would be the ones attending the Yankees games---you may well be right. And you know what? That's OK. Nobody has a right to attend a baseball game. It's a privilege. Nobody is entitled to a car, nor a college education, nor a computer or a brand new cell phone, nor a big fancy home "with no money down!!". It is the attitude of those who confuse Rights with Privilege that gets a lot of us in trouble.
Don Imus made a joke about Rutgers women basketball team and there were pickets and demands for him to be fired--and he was.
Charles Barkely, host on TNT's basketball program, was busted for DUI. People laughed at his mugshot and welcomed him back to his job on TNT after a brief suspension.
An interesting double standard this country supports.
what happened to Predicatron this year?
Link to all rosters is: http://public.sheet.zoho.com/public/moonlightj/mixed which comes from http://www.toutwars.com/
There are 2 tabs...one for the AL and one for the Mixed.
52% of your money on pitching is very high generally and the highest by far in this league. Next highest was 46%. Average was 31%. Lowest was 4% by the team with the $11 pitching staff that netted Kawakami, Buchholz, Braden and a few other pieces---interesting to see how that team's $249 hitting stacks up with Wright, Reyes, McLouth, Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, etc.
Sorting by dollar value, the top 20 "picks" (had this been a draft) might have been: Reyes ($55), Wright, H Ramirez, Pujols, Braun, M Cabrera, Sizemore, Utley, Teixeira, Longoria, Soriano, Beltran, BJ Upton, Berkman, C Lee, Morneau, Ellsbury, Lincecum, Sabathia, Holliday ($31).
Wasn't there (philly) due to a conflict and not sure how long it was supposed to last, but per their website it was to be for 1 hour. If BP didn't even get an hour, that's not cool. But, if the 'plan' was to go for much longer, then perhaps some mixup with the venue led to the conflict.
Baseball Prospectus 2009
Please join us as we welcome Steven Goldman (editor) and contributors to the Baseball Prospectus 2009. The Baseball Prospectus contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams. Each players statistics are projected for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system. This event will appeal to devoted fans and fantasy players alike.
Time: 05:00 PM-06:00 PM
Location: 2nd level
Recurrence: One Time Event
The best stimulus would be to take $634M and ...never take it from Florida taxpayers in the first place. Let them keep their money so they can buy more stuff.
So was Saddam Hussein, technically...
Manny and Boras gambled, and lost. It happens.
If Manny didn\'t hit .396 blah blah blah for the Dodgers, we would have even gotten Ibanez money...
Arod 52 HR per year 2001-2003. Arod 41 HR per year every other year (even throwing out his 23 HR clunker). Not even park effects can explain it.
Every athlete on the planet, in every sport, in every country uses steroids for strength and speed gains but yet---baseball is immune to its effects. But of course.
This article is entitled \"stupid media tricks\" and blames traditional media for not \'seeing\' Roids in the clubhouse, and yet this site (BP) and others continue to act as if Roids has no impact on the game. Tell that to Carlos Delgado---robbed by A-Roid of the 2003 AL MVP.
Everybody...every fan...every website...every \"media\" is guilty of the fraud. It\'s like Democrats blaming Republicans or vice versa; all are crooked.
Clemens (and his wife) and McGwire have gotten their asses handed to them. And they\'re caucasian.
Olbermann is a total clown.
3 rookies of the year from various major sports in 1977 all had the initials \"AD\"---Andre Dawson, Adrian Dantley (NBA), and Anthony \"Tony\" Dorsett (NFL). Old factoid but hey, I\'m old.
The Jays are likely to turtle up, cut costs and be a bad team for 5 years to try to leapfrog the Rays/Sox/Yanks in 2013+. Doing what they have been doing hasn\'t worked---the Rays will be a contender for 5 years (until everybody hits arbitration) and the Sox/Yanks can keep spending $150-200M per year. With the passing of Ted Rogers, the sudden \'aging\' of the Skydome and being in Canada---it will be dim for Jays fans for a while.
Your stuff is non controversial and rarely generates comments---thought I\'d toss out a comment: nice work!
Albert Pujols deserved the award.
But no need to hate on Ryan Howard so much. It\'s not the Most Vorp Player or the Most Warp3 Player (although it would be nice if it was, since we could track it daily in September like a pennant race instead of waiting until some sleepy November Tuesday night).
The MVP award is generally linked in voters minds to HR, RBI and a division title and Howard led the way in HR and RBI (and won a division title). He\'s going to get lots of consideration---get over it. Great players like Pujols should continue to beat him, even well into 2011 when Howard vanishes into the night like Mo Vaughn.
Phillies: don\'t make the mistake you did with 1993 team by signing Dykstra/Daulton to silly expensive contracts. Realize it\'s time for Pat to go and remember Howard\'s April, May, June, July before plunking down $80M.
Burrell\'s OBP is great, especially for a HR hitting team like this. I always would have preferred he hit higher in the order to put his .380+ OBP to work ahead of some of the other boppers, but it never seemed to stick. He had a bases loaded RBI walk in the series---classic Burrell. I like him, but am glad he was nearly 0-for-the-series---will make it easier for the Phillies to let him sign somewhere else. He was a good RH bat for 7 innings but there are better uses of $13M a year.
Tonight is starting to look like last night, which is good.
No rain tonight---very dry here. A little chilly, but a much better night for baseball than last night. Had they started at 8pm, the game is probably over by now. Wednesday night looks like a disaster weatherwise---this is some really, really bad luck for MLB\'s decision making.
The comments here are a pretty clear indicator of the \"forgotten narrative\". Even in an article about the Phillies, the world is preoccuipied with Mike Mussina, Youk\'s defense, the Cubs, and the print button at BP =) Heh, Sportscenter opened every broadcast with a Mets loss rather than a Phillies win...it\'s the way Media is.