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I believe there was something to that effect in Moneyball.
You have Chris Capuano listed as a Sit, but his comment is in the Consider section. It's switched for Clayton Richard. He's listed as a Consider, but his comment is in the Sit section.
The Jordan Zimmermann you're looking for has 2 n's at the end of his last name. I had no idea there was a Jordan Zimmerman back in 1999. It looks like he was a pretty terrible LOOGY.
If the White Sox stick with the 6-man rotation, Danks won't get two starts.
Click on PS Odds at the top of this page
Watching that play, I don't know how you can claim that the first base umpire had the best vantage point. His view was blocked by the runner. On the other hand, whichever vantage point the umpires decided was best was obviously wrong as well.
Like a PECOTA forecast for 10 years in the future is reliable?
This study would be better if RP had been eliminated from the discussion. RP don't face the same players from appearance to appearance, so I think their data probably just introduces noise.
Also, I think it shouldn't be looked at per season. Seeing a pitcher's advantage would be better if you looked at it per career, in my opinion.
Could you add current record to the table?
I'm guessing here, but the asterisks are likely to indicate that the player is available in x% of leagues on some site. I'm basing that on the guys without asterisks: Sabathia, Beckett, Gallardo, Hamels, Jurrjens, and Anibal.
The Start, Consider, and Sit recommendations are based on the whole week, so Craig Brown is saying that he'd rather bench Bedard than play him at TEX and vs. CLE.
Are you sure about using ERA when comparing home/road splits? C.J. Wilson's home/road xFIPs are 4.03/4.11.
Also, you're ignoring park factors when comparing ERAs. While it won't be 3.70/2.91, teams do tend to score more runs in Arlington than other places.
Well, I couldn't find the exact thing, but here's an MLB Rumors and Rumblings from John Perrotto on March 17 of last year: "Tigers left-hander Dontrelle Willis has been so sharp this spring after battling control problems the last two seasons that he has a chance to begin the season in the rotation."
It's possible for Zobrist's PA% (which is really what's being shown) to be over 100%. If he always bats 2nd and the RF/2B always bats 7th, his PA% is higher than his PT%. PT% is a misnomer.
Example (PA per game numbers aren't real, but you'll get the idea): Let's say he plays 35% of his time in RF, but he bats 2nd when he does. The other RFs make up 65% of the PT and bats 7th when they play. So he plays 57 games and gets 5 PA a game, that's 285 PA in RF. The other RFs play 105 games and get 4 PA a game, that's 460 PA in RF. Zobrist plays 35% of the time and ends up with 38% of the PA. If he plays 60% of the time at 2B, he'd get 65% of the PA. So he plays 95% of the time and gets 103% of the PA.
So what you're saying is that you think Zobrist will always bat 2nd no matter his position and that PT% isn't actually a PT%, it's a PA%? If that's the case, why don't you list the position he's projected to play more (2B) in the 2-hole?
I think you forgot the link to the pdf.
"Edinson Volquez has looked sharp in his rehab starts"
"I figure he’ll finish around .250, give or take five points."
So you're expecting him to hit around .230 the rest of the way?
"21-for-52 in August (.404), Rincon has one of the better swings in the Midwest Leagues."
Wow, does time fly. Just as I was starting to enjoy June...
Oh, then I completely read that wrong. From the looks of everything else in that file, I'd expect all information to be useful for determining which pitchers to use, but those lines are actually for hitters.
Would you pick up Kris Medlen to start in place of either Javier Vazquez (vs. Hou) or Brett Cecil (@TB) in a 15-team keeper league where I'd have to drop Justin Masterson? Medlen would require a 5th round pick to keep (so not a keeper), whereas Masterson would require a 22nd round pick to keep? I'm concerned that Masterson's BABIP issue is more of a skill problem than a fluke.
In the spreadsheet, that is.
Jason Hammel is a two-start pitcher but doesn't appear above. The real reason for my post, however, is that I believe the OPS in games vs. RH starters for TOR appears to be wrong. I think that .621 should be an .821 because they have an .841 OPS against RH pitching.
"PECOTA has Stanton hitting a very believable 14 homers in 255 PA."
You're not the first writer to make that mistake, but that is not what PECOTA projected. That's the PECOTA projection given the PT assigned to him by Clay Davenport. It's frustrating that BP writers are not required to understand what's on the Player Cards before using the information in their posts.
PECOTA has a weighted mean forecast of 28 HR in 516 PA. His 10th and 90th percentiles have 19 and 39 HR in 478 and 599 PA, respectively.
Posey or Napoli the rest of the way?
Krol was suspended because a young man was pulled over for DUI and said Krol was in the car earlier that evening. Krol claims he didn't drink any and called his mom to pick him up from the basketball game they went to. Having been in the presence of alcohol was enough for his school to suspend him. It's not like he's an alcoholic and/or not dedicated to making himself better.
The only problem with that argument is that only one of those games happens next week.
You mean over one thousand balls in play, Lincecum will only prevent three more hits than Eaton. Over one thousand at-bats, Lincecum (with a higher K rate and lower HR rate) will prevent many more hits than Eaton.
No comments about Fred Lewis?
I hope that was sarcasm because neither young nor talented are good adjectives for Bruce Chen.
FYI, Jason Hammel is pitching today (Saturday), so I highly doubt he gets two starts next week. They've had a few postponed games to screw things up.
Maybe I caught it between updates because Buchholz no longer shows up with a 4.55 SIERA after refreshing.
I created my own stats report: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=160951. (not sure if you can access that)
I noticed one strange issue. Clay Buchholz shows up 89th at 4.55 and again at 101st at 4.81.
"However he’ll face the Padres who walk a lot and don’t strikeout in his second turn." Um, the Padres have the third most strikeouts in the major leagues.
Legally, teams can't say their managing service time clocks. The players' agents would file grievances.
Freddy Garcia is the White Sox pitcher getting two starts.
The White Sox site also says Danks is starting 5/12, which would mean one start. http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers/index.jsp?c_id=cws
I liked the old one format much, much better. It was particularly useful for my 15-team keeper league with 28-man rosters. Most of the guys you're going to list as recommendations in this format aren't going to touch the waiver wire in that league. Oh well, keep up the good work.
What I really liked about Berkman's quotes was the fact that he said he wouldn't want the Astros to go into "baseball purgatory." Like they haven't been there since Bagwell retired...
"Chief offenders: Mitch Talbot (12/15 K/BB ratio), Fausto Carmona (17/18), David Huff (13/12), and their five highest-leverage relievers, none of whom has more walks than strikeouts."
I think you meant, "None of whom has more strikeouts than walks," although Tony Sipp does have more strikeouts than walks.
Where'd you get that Jose Contreras is the Phillies' short-term closer? I just went to the Phillies website and found this:
Lidge, when he is completely healthy, will pitch in the ninth inning.
"We signed Lidge three years ago to be our closer and nothing has changed," Manuel said. "When we went to Spring Training, we had in mind that he was our closer, and it's the same. I look at him as he's our closer. He's still got the talent."
The setup role belongs to Contreras -- for now.
"He's going to get a lot of time in the eight-hole," Manuel said. "When we get Romero going an inning or four outs, I know Romero can get lefties. And I think when we get him really going right he can throw in the seventh and eighth inning for us, too."
"Jake Westbrook was nearly scratched from his start with back spasms."
Given his performance, it looks like he should've been scratched.
I'm confused by the stuff about Chipper. He's been in the lineup every game since the 11th.
Or you could look it up and see that he walked two of them.
Went to the Dragons-Whitecaps game last night to see Turner and was wondering why he didn't start, so thanks for that.
One takeaway from the game was having seen him throw out two guys at the plate, Whitecaps CF Michael Rockett is aptly named.
I'm going to take a guess and say that that .327 AVG vs. LHP is a typo.
"Wood is hitting .105/.128/.105 with a -.132 TAv and -6.2 WARP." Wow, Wood's cost his team a whopping 6 games in 2 weeks. He must be doing really bad.
Same thing for the Pie link.
Actually, you got both wrong. You left out the second z in Rzepczynski.
Ynoa didn't appear in the top 101. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142
Neil deMause hasn't written anything for BP in over a year. Perhaps you meant Shawn Hoffman.
Sorry, I meant Michael. Need to re-check the author of these before posting.
I'm sorry Will, but when did signing a player to a long-term deal after his best season become a good deal?
Where they're talking about updating attributes for players that get hot with frequent roster updates, I get the sense that Jason Villa and his team don't know a whole lot about the ups and downs players have each season.
I think you missed his point. You said then, not than.
I think the playing in the depth charts already matches the playing time in the PFM. I haven't verified this, but I always thought the playing time in the PFM came from the depth charts.
"PECOTA sees Nady getting just 195 trips to the plate but being extremely productive with .280/.338/.472 slash stats and 12 homers."
Again, I'm pretty sure that's not PECOTA, and you missed his other 141 PA in LF that Clay's projecting.
"...and that Fukudome just isn't very good"
Is this the same Fukudome that posted a .375 OBP last year? That's better than not very good.
"PECOTA isn't quite so optimistic, expecting Cedeno to get to fewer plate appearances at shortstop than Bobby Crosby while hitting .257/.317/.398 with seven homers in 267 plate appearances."
Just to be clear, I don't think it's PECOTA that expects Cedeno to get fewer plate appearances than Bobby Crosby. It's whoever is updating the depth charts, which is Clay Davenport if I'm not mistaken.
They're referring to his 4 DL stints in 2007 and 2008.
4/18/07-5/22/07 - broken middle finger on his left hand
7/08/07-8/20/07 - broken index finger on his left hand
4/14/08-5/30/08 - left hamstring strain
8/28/08-9/24/08 - left hamstring strain
Thanks to http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/injury-tool.php for the injury data.
Do players in the second year of a two-year contract beat expectations more than a player normally does in a contract year?
I think you missed the sarcasm.
No, actually, your reasoning applies to why there's more Pirates coverage than you'll see other places. Not that I'm complaining, I actually find the Pirates to be one of the more interesting organizations recently.
No worse than 50/50 - well, that means Hughes should be projected to start at least 1 game, doesn't it?
In the Positional Adjustment setting, make sure to select level 1 to ensure that all positions are represented like you want. In your example, there should be 7 catchers after changing this setting.
That's exactly what it means.
.375/.450/.563 vs. LHP
.276/.337/.461 vs. RHP
Since you're going to nitpick, I'm going to tell you that you're not completely right. It's spelled both ways in the dictionary.
As these pitchers move up, the hitters are more patient and thus more likely to work the walk or force him to throw pitches over the heart of the plate.
Joe, I must ask. Why do you use Batting Average on Contact over BABIP, which you can at least use to compare what a player with his hit rates can be expected to do?
Joe, can't the logic you applied to the Halladay non-deal also be applied to the Dunn non-deal? I don't understand why you're okay with Halladay staying put but not with Dunn.
I can't find an exact definition of SNWP. Does it use the pitcher's season-to-date peripherals (like FIP and QERA do) or the pitcher's season-to-date results (e.g. ERA)? If it uses the pitcher's peripherals, then I'm ok with using SNWP to signify a pitcher's ability, but if it uses the pitcher's results, then I agree with philosofool about using FIP or QERA instead.
It depends on other guys with similar amounts of service time. My guess is that he passed that point a month or two ago.
i.e. a football player
I think it has more to do with nobody else putting Ball in their stadium name. The Reds did it merely to keep the acronym from being GAP, and then made ballpark two words to keep it from being GAB.
By gain, I was merely referring to their playoff odds.
But at the same time, how much would a team like the Pirates gain from acquiring Halladay? Would their playoff odds be 30x higher with Halladay?
It seems to me that this season has shown that he is not.
Do Napoleon Dynamite references make you hip?
Love the new format. For the season-ending injuries, did you consider just listing 2010 as the expected return date?
If you look to the future, they aren't going to even need Pitcher 6 again before O'Sullivan can return, so it's not like they even need him around for the 10 days.
Pitcher 1 goes Sunday, 3 Monday (remember O'Sullivan was pitcher 2), 4 Tuesday, 5 Wednesday, off-day Thursday, 1 Friday, 3 Saturday, 4 Sunday, and O'Sullivan's eligible to return by this time. They won't actually need him until August 9.
So they needed a 6th starter for Saturday and didn't need O'Sullivan or the 6th starter for the next turn through the rotation. The complaint about O'Sullivan seems to be much ado about nothing. Am I missing something?
sroney makes a valid point. The numbers below don't represent #1 or #2 pitcher in the standard sense, just a numbering to keep track of the pitchers. Pitchers 1 and 2 went Tuesday, 3 on Wednesday, 4 on Thursday, and 5 on Friday. Since none of pitchers 1 through 5 will have 4 days of rest by Saturday, they need pitcher #6. Since O'Sullivan was Pitcher 2, he wasn't an option even before being sent down.
I believe that Garret Jones is the backup first baseman, but he's also still a starting corner outfielder.
Down the right field line is only 302 in Fenway.
Just noticed that the DT Cards links all go to the 2008 pages.
They made the money mistake when they signed Lugo. You can't penalize them for that when evaluating this trade.
Ian Kennedy is out for the season.
I don't if it's true or not, but it wouldn't surprise me if the in-season data from prior years wasn't readily available to re-run the comps.
I think you're seriously selling the Pirates' current management short. They've done many good things since taking over the organization. They were just starting with so little that it's going to take a while to get them back to respectability.
As for your comment about the current pitching staff and their age 27 seasons, pitchers don't peak at age 27 like hitters do, and it's not like their current pitching staff is all that incredible.
Why do you have to squint to see "the Braves are kind of in it?" The original and PECOTA playoff odds reports have them over 20%, which isn't a bad shot.
Good analysis, but unless I missed something, it seems to ignore that Halladay would be worth a different number of wins to each team, which would also change the dollar figures for each team.
"The curious thing here is that it's back spasms that are the proximate cause, which hadn't been an issue before."
I don't believe that's true. I remember talk about back spasms with Meche back in May. His Rotoworld page mentions "Meche's back has been a minor problem all season." http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&hl=269686&id=2833
I think you'd be hard pressed to find many athletes willing to admit that their arm is feeling tired. Players still have a macho attitude that makes them want to play through fatigue and/or injuries.
I think it's more that he has become homer-prone. If you look at his HR/9 per season, it goes like this:
"If right-handers Jake Peavy and Chris Young get healthy, they could go by the August 31 deadline for setting post-season rosters."
How would either of those guys clear waivers to a playoff contender?
"so the managers are going to manage that way"
Did you really just claim that managers manage the all-star game to win it? Because I fail to see how that claim can be justified. As Joe said on the radio last week, the all-star game is more like gym class than a real baseball game.
In defense of Joe's statement about the site's defense stats, I can't remember the last time Joe used BP's defensive metrics in one of his articles. I recall him using things such as UZR and +/-, but not FRAR or FRAA. So he isn't just dismissing BP's defensive stats because it doesn't support his argument. He's dismissing them because he doesn't believe in them.
If Albert Pujols wasn't in the majors until he was 24, he would've gotten to 200 HR much quicker in terms of plate appearances too.
They could even go to a team format to put more focus on the players' interactions with each other. By focusing on NL vs. AL or US vs. World or whatever, you'll get the players more into it and create more fan interest (on TV anyway).
Are you ignoring defense where Pena is far superior to Howard?
If Howard's not the most overrated player in the game, who is? I can't think of someone more overrated. It's usually guys in the Juan Pierre mold, but even they seem to have fallen out of favor in the public eye. Figgins?
I don't know if that's a true statement because different positions require different skill sets. The way you write that suggests that a +10.5 SS would be even better at 1B, like a +15.0 1B, but that's not necessarily true. It could be that his speed is nearly useless at 1B, and an inability to catch wild throws shows up to ruin his defensive performance.
By the RS/RA calculation of record, a run saved is worth more than a run scored, which would further the argument for Randy Wells.
Christina, you either missed or ignored what he meant with his comment. Your original sentence makes it sound like you're the starting catcher.
Then maybe the solution is to reduce the size of the back end of his bullpen...
Good point. His LD% has been consistently high through the years, which suggests you're right about his inability to prevent hits.
I understand that De La Rosa hasn't pitched well according to FRA, but does his 3.81 FIP mean anything to you, Christina? It seems to me that his peripherals suggest he should be giving up fewer runs than he has.
It's arguable that the East already has the four best teams in the AL.
Manny's 13 HR short of 15 straight years.
Got another list for you:
Gardner and Hinske less than $1.5M
Mayberry and Stairs $1.4M
Lewis and Schierholtz $0.85M
Baldelli $0.5M plus incentives
It's not QERA, but you can find a leaderboard at FanGraphs for ERA - FIP. Go to http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0 and click on the E-F column.
Adam Eckstein? I think you mean David.
Coaches get to pick injury replacements for both the starting lineup and roster spots.
"The 504th overall pick in the 2006 draft, only three players in draft history selected there have ever reached the big leagues, and when Heisey gets a September call-up, if not earlier, his manager will be one of the trio."
Actually, he'd be one of the quartet. Dusty's already a part of the trio, but that trio becomes a quartet when Heisey gets called up.
When the players and the owners added the suspensions to the CBA, they had to agree on two things: length of suspension and length of rehab. Those two things had to be in there. Is it their fault that the media initially reported it as 50-game suspension instead of 50-game suspension, 10-game rehab inclusive? This information was available long before Manny went on a rehab assignment.
Plus, if they wanted a full 50 games without playing, it would have actually been a 60-game suspension, 10-game rehab inclusive, which would have been reported as a 60-game suspension. The writers who complain about these things were lazy at the time of the suspension policy announcement and they're lazy again now to complain about a "problem" they've created.
I'm not sure you can really compare suspension rehabs to injury rehabs. The one span of missed games was punishment, and the other wasn't.
I think he was out of the hard cast after the first week, but I could be wrong.
Does Jemile Weeks get hit by as many pitches as his brother? Haven't HBP been the source of Rickie's wrist problems?
Over the weekend, I saw a family where all 3 kids were wearing a splint on their left wrist, so I'm curious if there's a genetic link to individual joints.
I agree with sinfonian11, but I want to add something regarding the last point - Protected PED Users. No matter what percentage of his clients were users, isn't protecting his clients part of his job?
As for "He was great for the players, perhaps, but he was a disaster for the fans," his clients were the players, not the fans.
You also probably don't have the opportunity to sleep in as late as A-Rod does. How early do players show up for a 5:00 game? Noon?
Good question, but I don't see how that can be measured.
Sometimes, I'm surprised my people's laziness, which is impressive since I'd call myself lazy. Check Monday's UTK. If there's nothing today, it's probably because things haven't changed.
None of BP's writers are established relief pitchers, but I'd say all of them are qualified to blast anyone in baseball they care to. Please explain to me what being an established relief pitcher has to do with qualification to blast people.
Dusty Baker said Votto is close to starting a rehab assignment.
One of the things with John Smoltz's rehab start being pushed back to today is that his turn in the rotation will now miss the series against the Braves.
Odds of him needing injury? I'm gonna go with 0, since I highly doubt he either needs or wants injury.
My question for you is why do those college numbers mean anything?
"Doing something stupid is very low on the priority list." - Tony LaRussa
But it's *on* the list...
"I'd be real disappointed if we didn't make the playoffs," [Astros owner Drayton] McLane said. The PECOTA version of the postseason odds report has the Astros at a 1.56% chance of making the playoffs. Prepare to be disappointed Drayton.
Joe Torre: "When you have a Matt Kemp hitting seventh in the lineup, that's a pretty good lineup." That or bad lineup construction, take your pick.
He didn't rake during the summer last year. Last year, he wilted under the summer sun. His big months were April, May, and September.
In which case, I wonder if the deal is even worth discussing. Seriously, is that type of trade really going to affect the standings?
You could add Carlos Quentin to that.
Is Josh Hamilton the hitter analog to the Verducci Effect on pitchers?
"The umpires got together again and ruled it a home run, though replays showed the ball may have glanced off of a Subway advertisement that hangs eight feet above the fence..."
I'm confused. If it hits an advertisement above the fence, why shouldn't it be a home run?
"Cubs left-handed batters are hitting .241/.335/.392, and right-handed hitters have a .255/.322/.419 line."
On the other hand, the Cubs are hitting .250/.328/.412 against RHP and .252/.345/.405 against LHP, which is probably the better way to look at balance.
Sandoval had 145 AB last year, and therefore, not a rookie.
I like most of your reasons, but really, you're worried about what the box score would look like? If you're trying to enhance the appeal of the game to casual fans, I don't think it matters what it does to the box score. The people that pay attention to them already like the game and will continue to like it even if the box score gets messier.
Wood had 0 PA last year, so I think you can cross him off your list.
"It seems like we never pitch well and hit well on the same day. It's always one or the other. And it seems like when we're bad, we're really bad. We don't just play OK. We either look good, or we stink."
So which is it Ozzie? You can't have it both ways. You claim that you "never pitch well and hit well on the same day," but you also claim that you're always either good or stink. How can you ever look good if you never have both good pitching and good hitting on the same day?
Is Joyce going to be able to handle lefties in the majors? I remember him having problems hitting them last year, though he did sport a .397 OBP. I guess my question is: does he replace the Gross/Kapler platoon, or does he replace Gross to make it the Joyce/Kapler platoon?
"notice how often his left hand (the injured one) is coming off of the bat before contact"
Methinks this could be issue number 1. It seems like a simple test could be done to see how much power is lost when your top hand comes off the bat before contact. Anyone know of such a test being done?
"Happily, with Anderson expected back in little more than two weeks and Wise due back before the end of the month, the problem in center shouldn't last too much longer."
I'm confused. I thought Wise (or any of the other options) was the problem in center.
Didn't Michael Morse get nailed twice for the same offense a few years ago?
He wasn't on a team at the time, so did he even have a team doctor?
He's started three games since missing time. http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Clay%20Buchholz&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453329
Will doesn't usually give updates when he doesn't have anything to add to what's being covered everywhere else, so it's either that there is no update or you can find it on the Royals website.
Why isn't signing injury-prone pitchers (points #2 and #4 in your post) Ricciardi's fault?
He would've needed a team to claim him when he was passed through waivers, so technically, he's already missed out on that route. He'd have to be called up and then waived again to follow in The (self-proclaimed) Franchise's footsteps.
Not to belabor this, but there is not city of Miami in Ohio. There's a Miami County and a Miami University, but there's no city of Miami. The university is located in Oxford, OH.
For baseball players, there's the added incentive that your vision can become better than 20/20 with LASIK.
Even though Perez has an option remaining, he would have to consent to the minor-league assignment because he has over 5 years of service time. He could opt to become a free agent instead, but I have to imagine that he doesn't want out of his contract right now.
He retired back in 2006.
Trey Hillman wouldn't. He'd rather keep Soria permanently glued to the bullpen bench.
How many did John list? I count 4.
Will answered this in today's chat for those interested, sixth question. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=582
I'm not sure why we should ignore the ramp-up in IP for Lester. No matter what the reason was for his jump in innings, his body still had to endure something it hadn't in previous years. So why should we be giving him a special allowance?
I wanted to put McLouth's statement about five more steals at a 90% rate being better than where he's at with a 95% rate. It turns out that he's right at the point where it becomes wrong. 27 steals at a 90% success rate is 0.01 runs better than 22 at a 95% rate, but 28 steals at a 90% success rate is 0.01 runs worse than 23 at a 95% rate. Of course, it also depends on when the steals take place.
(The data I used for run value of SB and CS was from The Book if anyone wanted to know.)
When a team acquires this much injury risk, do they hire more people to their training staff? If not, why don't they? It seems like a pretty small expenditure for a major-league team.
I thought that was the case. Will said, "He does seem to crush lesser opponents," but Casey Stern always said the opposite on the Fantasy 411. The numbers from last year seem to back up Sterno more than Will, but again small sample size. Here's his good ERAs by team last year:
1.84 ERA, 14.2 IP vs NYY
1.29 ERA, 7.0 IP vs TEX
3.72 ERA, 19.1 IP vs ATL
3.75 ERA, 12.0 IP vs CIN
2.23 ERA, 36.1 IP vs FLA
0.35 ERA, 26.0 IP vs PHI
1.69 ERA, 5.1 IP vs SD
Four of those teams are rivals (NYY, ATL, FLA, PHI). Maybe he needs to be played against rivals as much as possible.
Will, I wonder if you could do a projected days lost, dollars lost, and injury cost at the beginning of the season based on the players' health records. That could also lead to a more accurate viewing of a team's training staff because things like Orlando Hernandez, Matt Wise, and Ambiorix Burgos missing the season would be handled more appropriately.
....and no free agents would sign with your team.
That's assuming salary inflation continues at the pace before this previous offseason. I don't know if you noticed, but contract sizes went down considerably this past winter.
I'm just curious. Why aren't you running Predictatron this year?
"[Craig Biggio] was still a productive player to the end," if by productive, you mean replacement-level or worse.
"The Cubs are considering releasing reliever Luis Vizcaino, even though doing it would cost them $4 million."
They already owe him $4 million, so releasing him doesn't cost them anything. If anything, the release could save them $400K if another team signs him.
If steroids make a player slower, could you explain why sprinters take them? Also, consider that sprinters usually have much larger muscles than marathon runners, and I think you can see where I'm going with this.
If steroids can increase power, they can also increase speed.
Wouldn't it be better to have a beat reporter in each city that covers both teams that are in town for the series? That would eliminate nearly all travel expenses. You'd lose the personal touch of always getting your team's reports from the same reporter, but some people might not even notice.
As for Huston Street, he had neuritis in his ulnar nerve. At least that\'s what this injury tool (http://www.fantasypitchfx.com/DL/injury-tool.php) told me.
I\'m just guessing here, but the actuarial baseline is probably riskier in general at second than shortstop. I have two possible reasons why. First, second basemen are usually less athletic than shortstops. Second, second basemen have their backs to oncoming baserunners at second. But those are just my guesses.
So he belongs at position infinity?
I wouldn\'t think they add holds because they\'re too difficult to predict. Plus, they basically have no value because they\'ll be available for free through free agency all season long.
In the download, Aaron Heilman\'s position is still showing up as #DIV/0!.
It links to the older Griffey because he wrote Ken Griffey instead of Ken Griffey Jr.
I find it comical that the media asked Rodriguez the question of whether or not he would have come forward if Selena Roberts hadn\'t reported his usage. And even more comical that they criticized him for dodging it. If he didn\'t come forward in the last five years, why would he have come forward without the report and do you think he\'s stupid enough to answer that question?
\"The Tigers\' Gary Sheffield is willing to give up playing the outfield to be a full-time designated hitter, something he has resisted in the past.\"
He played 5.3 games in the outfield last year, so Sheffield\'s willing to give up something he already gave up?
Where do you think he was calling out Nolan Ryan? I don\'t see it.
But at the same time, it would be easy for those people dealing with the players on a daily basis to have an inflated view of their abilities. I\'m not saying Servais does; I\'m just saying that it would be easy to think your guys are better than they are. It\'s those outside the organization that I think would have a less biased view of the prospects.
On the BP depth chart, they have Dukes and Patterson playing some center. I know Dukes can handle center, but I seriously hope the Nationals won\'t give Patterson playing time.
Ichiro\'s in there, but he costs you so much in the HR and RBI category that he\'s typically assigned a negative value.
It\'s funny that for Adam LaRoche, it\'s mentioned that \"it must just be in his genes.\" Yet, \"PECOTA worries about [his brother Andy\'s] injury history.\"
I could see Doumit\'s broken hand being repeatable. It\'s his glove hand, and as a catcher, that hand takes quite a beating.
My takeaway from this regarding Gordon and Butler is that they\'re still considered 5-star (or they\'re ranked ahead of a couple 5-star prospects anyway), so there\'s reason for them to be considered middle-of-the-order players for a contender in the future.
He might have been referring to his lack of stamina at the end of the year. While he pitched well, he lasted only 5.5 innings per start in September.
Hanley was projected for .258/.313/.367 in his rookie year, but I remember hearing that scouts thought he looked bored in the minors and wasn\'t trying very hard. That\'s probably what brought his projection down so low.
Just want to point out that something strange is going on with Aaron Heilman. His position is listed as #DIV/0!, and his G are 0.
Do friends let friends tear apart their elbow for a minuscule chance of continuing their career?
Any chance we could get a preseason playoff odds report?
I think you\'d be right since there are no hitters listed that appear after Kearns alphabetically.
Step one for achieving Jimmy Rollins\' prediction: start him over Derek Jeter.
I have a question for the Reds\' PR department. How are they going to spin it if the futures team beats the major league team? I think BP fans understand that\'s it\'s plausible for the futures team to win, but it could be a problem for the media and a lot of baseball fans. If the Reds lose to their futures team, they\'ll become the laughingstock of the week.
Contrary to what Joe said, I want to point out that PECOTA does predict platoon splits, or at least it did last year. Here\'s Griffey\'s from last year: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/griffke02.php#platoon
I\'m not sure what the intentions of this series are. It doesn\'t really do a good job of judging a team\'s offseason moves since not all teams are building for 2009, and it doesn\'t really create a good outlook for the 2009 season since it doesn\'t take into account the in-house replacements for players lost. So I must ask, what is the purpose?
Nevermind, it\'s on now. There was a delay of some sort. Did the first game go long, or was there a weather delay?
Is anyone else not getting the Caribbean Series on MLB Network? The guide claims its Puerto Rico vs. Mexico, but it\'s Prime Nine.
Just wanted to point out that Jamie Moyer is missing. Not that there\'s really any comparables for him....
I\'d like to hear an interview with a non-prospect minor leaguer - somebody that is considered to have 0% chance at reaching the majors but continues to play the game.
When was Brendan Harris compared to Albert Pujols? Who made that comparison?
Christina, of the three criteria you gave (age, athleticism, and durability), what two does Burrell have on Dunn?
Dunn\'s younger than Burrell, so age is out.
I\'ll give you athleticism.
In Burrell\'s 9 seasons, he\'s played 111, 155, 157, 146, 127, 154, 143, 155, and 157 games. In Dunn\'s 8 seasons, he\'s played 66, 158, 116, 161, 160, 160, 152, and 158 games. If you throw out their first seasons since they presumably didn\'t start Opening Day, Burrell\'s averaged 149 GP and Dunn\'s averaged 152 GP. They seem pretty even in durability, and if there\'s any advantage, it would go to Dunn.
An RSS feed for the chats.
Comparing real baseball to fantasy baseball does not make for a good argument. I\'m not saying that I am completely opposed to your belief that all teams should start on equal footing, but I do disagree with your argument.
If you start to look at the economics behind baseball, you start to realize that MLB is closer to a free market than any other sports league. While a completely free market is not ideal for a sports league (due to needing a sense of competitiveness in smaller markets and a lack of predictability from season-to-season), there are also good reasons for not starting all teams at an equal level. For example, if MLB wants to satisfy a maximum number of fans, it makes sense for large-market teams to win more championships than small-market teams simply because they have more fans.
There is a balance somewhere between a free market and a salary cap. MLB has tried to find that balance before, but they need to revisit the situation a little more often than every four or five years.
Joe, this is the second time I\'ve seen or heard you remark that \"Edgar Martinez is [Manny\'s] comp in that regard,\" referring to the statement of each being \"someone who\'s going to hit very well until he either doesn\'t want to play or can\'t physically make it onto the field any longer.\" The only problem with that is Edgar\'s production in his final season wasn\'t so great. In 2004, he had 549 plate appearances and hit .263/.342/.385 for an EQA of .254. That doesn\'t sound like someone who hit very well.
It seems to me that the Twins are too set in their own ways. While Delmon isn\'t buying into the Twins\' instruction, it might be better if they altered their instruction just a little to work with Young instead of against him.
I remember catching the end of the announcer\'s comment, and I could have sworn that Tony Gwynn said that Ethier was seeing better pitches because he was hitting behind Manny, which is where Ethier hit last night. The argument that Ethier is seeing better pitches because he\'s behind Manny makes less sense than seeing them in front of Manny, but I just wanted to throw that out there.
Let\'s do like Joe Sheehan did for the Yankees\' playoff chances and say that the Red Sox go nearly .500 the rest of the way. That puts them at 93-69.
For both the White Sox and Twins to finish better, they\'ll have to both go 16-9 or better without considering that they play each other for three games. Let\'s say that their series goes 2-1 one way (as a sweep would make it harder for both to make the playoffs), which means the losing team has to go 15-7 in their other games.
All in all, it seems pretty unlikely for the Red Sox to go 13-12 (or worse) and both the Twins and White Sox to go 16-9 (or better), so a 2.92% chance of the wild card coming out of the Central sounds about right to me.