CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
until he started really sucking, people in DC loved Nyjer Morgan...
Where's Gaby Sanchez on the chart?
Although I agree with you, I think you may be missing the point of what I was asking. The run and RBI projections for Miguel Cabrera aren't happening in a vacuum; if you say that "we don't know who's going to break out so we're going to project that nobody has an outstanding performance", that makes sense, but if you extend that logic to everyone in the game, I don't think all the numbers will add up.
Granted that variance exists, it is still the case that either:
PECOTA predicts approximately the same number of runs/RBI to be produced that will actually happen in the real world; in this case, the runs and RBI that aren't assigned to the top-tier players are being assigned elsewhere, either to lower-end players or minor leaguers who might get called up or something.
PECOTA predicts fewer runs and RBI than will be produced in the real world, which holds down the numbers for all players equally but also inflates the projected performance of the pitchers who will give up those fewer runs.
or, I guess
PECOTA predicts fewer runs and RBI for hitters and is not concerned with making sure that the offensive production generated by hitters' projections matches up with the run-prevention generated by pitchers' and fielders' projections.
as for the comment early on about R and RBI:
"the projections for those stats almost always tend to be conservative with PECOTA"
What does this mean? Does PECOTA predict a lower run-scoring environment in general (and is it overly optimistic about pitchers) or is it thinking that more runs and RBI will be taken up by mid-range players or by AAA players or what?
That's how it looks to me as well, unless the problem is that the individual player pages need to be reformatted... the PFM has Aubrey Huff ...
ok I'm confused. The PFM, the PECOTA spreadsheet, and Aubrey Huff's player page all have him putting up almost identical lines, but Huff's player page says they're 2010 projections. Is the problem that the player page needs to be updated to say 2011?
did you think last year wasn't it?
The umpire does decide which ball to use but it's the ballboy who's bringing the balls out to the umpire, and it's entirely possible that the umpire can't tell the difference between a humidor ball and a non by touch/sight.
not quite the same... when a high school kid gets sent home, they don't have an 8th grader come to high school for the rest of the day.
(unless the study only tracks people who were in the majors as of opening day, that isn't a relevant factor, I don't think.)
Have "you" ever "written for" "Zagat"?
heh. I thought this was going to be about Chris Young, also in his fourth full season and written off as a bust but having a breakout year.
also, as far as picking endpoints:
Stubbs (May stats): .273/.339/.525, 5 HR, 14 R, 18 RBI, 4 SB
Jones (May): .279/.303/.375, 2 HR, 11 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB
Stubbs had a brutal April but was excellent in May.
and as far as deep fringe options, what do you think of Chris Denorfia? Is he going to hold onto a job once Hairston comes back (presumably at the expense of Tony Gwynn Jr.)?
In Zawadzki's defense, it looks like there is a PECOTA card for "Lance Zawadzki" at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=ZAWADZKI19850526A
Any thoughts about the usage patterns for Zach Braddock? Given his ridiculous numbers so far (Spring Training: 9.1 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 10 K, 0.00 ERA; AAA: 9.2 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 17 K, 0.00 ERA) it seems like he's a better candidate for a high-leverage job than the guy the Brewers have closing in AAA (or a useful job in the majors), but they're only using him every couple days...
Maybe this is a stupid question, but...
Why is it that when I set up a league with 10 teams and 23 players per team (default positions), the PFM prices 253 players (23 * 11) instead of 230? 148 hitters, 105 pitchers. The total money spent is $2,611.32, which I am willing to assume is within a rounding error of $2600, but...
yeah, this is what I'm seeing as well. I haven't checked a lot of cards, but I haven't yet found anyone who's projected to have a better 2011 than 2010, which just seems kind of unlikely.
absolutely agree on this. my big problem with the PFM was the time it took to get a response from the webserver after updating.
Wasn't Moskos drafted with the expectation that he'd be a closer? When did they try him as a starter?
"Underrated semi-veteran" is, I think, the most positive thing I've seen about Nyjer Morgan on this site this year. What is it about him that makes him (presumably) project to not being starter-quality for the next couple years?
really? looks negative to me unless I'm misreading it...