Baseball's acceptable 'defensive alignments' that spring to mind: Double-play depth No-doubles At the warning track Corners in / bunt prevention Playing to pull Defenders in their traditional positions are almost always making subtle (and not so subtle) adjustments based on the game situation and the batter/pitcher tendencies. 'The shift' is simply another of the less subtle alignments. And it's very effective in the right situations. Would it be wrong to call it the lefty play to pull on steroids, or does that bring back bad memories?

Somebody's been waiting a long time for this headline subtitle. Clever. I like.

I had a similar reaction. Starting pitchers are going 2/3 of an out shorter on average. Rosters are carrying an extra reliever. Coincidence? Can that starter innings be correlated to bullpen depth? Are managers more willing to pull the starter for a reliever if they have a deeper bench? Is there a difference between AL and NL, where the starting pitcher might be getting pulled for a pinch hitter in the fifth or sixth?

A team's "will to win" starts at the top, and infuses the entire organization, including the faces of the organization's media arm / cheerleaders. It takes commitment. Conviction. So, if your team has been losing, it's because they lack conviction. Including the cheerleaders. That's what's wrong with 29 of the MLB teams, every season.

Playing the other devil's advocate... you're saying because he couldn't get out of the way of a 89MPH pitch, it's justified because it's the first time he's assaulted a pitcher afterward?

The replay I saw showed it as an 89 MPH pitch... not sure if that's backed up with anything other than the instant TV broadcast...

I gotta listen to your podcast on the way home tonight, but jeez, the replay I saw shows it was an 89MPH pitch. Quentin's gotta be able to get out of the way or suffer the consequences...

My entry from my mobile device apparently failed. I lose. Sigh. At least I was on vacation at a beach.

Bacon, Canadian bacon, ham, Spam, or other?

Can we see all the adjusted pitchfx 'down and away' calls to lefties from both teams, excluding any 0-2 and 3-0 counts?? Might help to establish whether Foster had any consistency for those pitches throughout the game... Not that I'm making any excuses... Thank you!

Thanks, Colin & team. I know from Joe's earlier posts that a lot of work was done under the good to validate these, and I appreciate it. Psyched.

I'm not going to suggest that Hamilton is immune from regression (age 31, etc.), but his home/road split last season was very balanced. Just .009 differential in OBP and .005 in SLG, in exactly equal PA.

Sam, this is good stuff as usual. But #3 doesn't hold water. His team won't score "or fewer" runs. But at the time the announcer utters the phrase, his team still might score "or more." The announcers really should just say, "4 runs. The [other team] might as well go home, because even Zito doesn't blow many games when he gets that much support before getting yanked."

Surgery. 2 months.

Okay, thank you.

And my namesake Rutledge in Colorado?

Mike, any chance we can get an updated post on Friday afternoon or Saturday morning For those of us drafting this weekend? Any way to separate SPs from RPs is doubly appreciated. Best, Burr

Hot damn, I went back to yesterday's post and see sortable positions. Don't recall seeing them before! Thanks in retrospect!!!

Joe, is there a way to reformat this week's auction values by position? Voila: interim tier rankings sans commentary. Thank you in advance for your consideration. Best, Burr

It's not too late to rebrand OBP to increase its market appeal. We should definitely crowd-source a better solution in the comments. NGO. Not Getting Out (pronounced 'Engo'). He's a tough out against lefties this season, with a .384 NGO. GOB. Getting On Base (credit to Ken Funck for this one). Old school charm. His GOB has improved dramatically since his rookie season. Elite pitchers can be hailed as GOB stoppers.

Fun. especially like the 50% selection. Probability he turns an unassisted triple play?

Luke, I think of these statues, and Ben's writing about them, as a way of recognizing achievements that might otherwise go underappreciated. Does the statue tell us how to pronounce Hrbek, by the way?

Very interesting! The effect may be larger than estimated, also, relative to mid-season with another variable to consider: With the extra rest-days in April, teams are often able to leave their fifth/weakest starter out of the lineup, too.

Joe, I wouldn't suggest that anybody is 'wrong.' I like the added commentary and insights, so that's a nice feature of the list. Knowing how the list was developed is important, and this approach definitely does that. Personally, I use BP's expert opinions as my benchmark, and adjust my internal lists from the PFM (thank you for accelerating their release) and ADP info. Going deeper into the lists adds tremendous value, especially in the mid/late rounds of a draft, so I am looking forward to seeing the deeper lists, too. With 360 players drafted in a league, top 15 lists only scratch the surface, especially for league-only owners. We're 2+ weeks ahead of last year's analyses, so it is all very much appreciated. I'll try to be more patient.

Thank you. For your reference, I think we may have been spoiled by some of the content that Marc and Derek had published over the past couple years (and once the bar has been set...): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16143 Pro: Forty-two first basemen listed and ranked, including projected stats. Organizes the players into tiers, which I found helpful for for snake-format drafts (yeah, I know), but I understand it may not be useful for everyone. I guess dollar-values provide similar information. Con: Published March 1st. Definitely a bonus to get the information out earlier than that Thank you again.

Paul, this a great in-depth look into the top-15. I appreciate it. But... I'm going to join the chorus of comments from the catcher rankings. I need way (way) more info before draft day, digging deeper into the options in the pool. I'm willing and able to be patint, but it would be super to get a list of your next 15, even if there are no additional comments added. I'm appreciative of the effort, and would like the opinion as a baseline comparison to the PFM (where I can customize lists from PECOTA). Thank you, Burr

Played this y once, attending a game at Yankee Stadium (against the Mariners) as part of my bachelor party. I recall drinking involved, but memory of that whole day is very cloudy so I could be wrong. Everyone playing put a dollar in the cup as ante, every half inning. Whoever was holding the cup at the end of the half inning collected if the ball stayed ON the dirt of the mound. Resting against the edge of the grass counted as ON as long as part of the ball was touching the dirt. Pass the cup (and re-ante) every half inning.

There's no reason we can't get a beta version followed by more accurate subsequent refinements, as we have in the past.

Thanks for taking another look & coming through with a solution. Very much appreciated.

I knew what this was going to be before I clicked thru. Classic.

Agreed. The raw spreadsheet has traditionally been released to premium members in beta-format by the end of January. Would love BP to take another look and see if that can be accomplished again in 2013.

This was great, Evan. Thanks for taking the time to do this topic the lip-service it deserved!

It's almost like the wall in right has been moved up to the old warning track. Almost.

That's right. You're the victim here. It's not about the children at all.

The chart also made me look twice. Didn't take long at all to find these two pitchers (using baseball-reference, and cherry-picking some stats): Pitcher A: 6'3", 195lbs, righty Pitcher B: 6'3", 190lbs, righty Pitcher C: 6'1", 160lbs, righty Pitcher A: 1977-1994; .577 W%, 5.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP / 3.90 ERA Pitcher B: 1978-1994; .591 W%, 5.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP / 3.44 ERA Pitcher C: 1976-1998; .559 W%, 4.8 K/9. 2.6 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP / 3.70 ERA Pitcher A - Season best: Wins, 21; Cy Young 3rd Pitcher B - Season best: Wins, 27; Cy Young winner Pitcher C - Season best: WIns, 16; Cy Young 5th Pitcher A - Career WAR: 39.3 in 549 Games; (JAWS rank 167th) Pitcher B - Career WAR: 39.9 in 506 Games; (JAWS rank 171st) Pitcher C - Career WAR: 45.1 in 692 Games; (JAWS rank 134th) Pitcher A: 4 Postseasons, 7-4 Record, 3.80 ERA in 13 Games Pitcher B: 8 Postseasons, 3-3 Record, 4.56 ERA in 17 Games Pitcher C: 3 Postseasons, 2-2 Record, 3.32 ERA in 12 Games Jack Morris Bob Welch Dennis Martinez That's just two quick examples I pulled up. I expect there's others. Morris just doesn't stand out, even among his exact contemporaries unless we look back at a couple cherry-picked and rose-colored postseason memories.

Thanks for the quick response! So then backspin increases drag, but not side-spin? Thanks again!

Excellent article. One of the variables that are mentioned could also have significant impacts on total distance. At least as I intuit. 1) side-spin / slice / hook Apologies if I missed this in the article. At any spray angle and launch angle, I suspect that side spin is significantly negatively correlated to distance. True? And so, again apologies if i missed it, but what is the 'sweet spot' of all these variables that yields the longest taters / blue triangles?

But a Marlins fan on the intranets would ask for more... A lot more. Myers, Longoria, Price, and another eleventeen Top Rays.

Thanks for sharing your ballot and your thought process. I think you made the right decision regarding PEDs. It will be interesting to see how the bottleneck of borderline and PED-associated players resolves itself heading into the next two or three years of voting. Can BP readership influence your Raines fence-squat?

My condolences to Mrs. Freel and her daughters. Many of us knew Mr. Freel from a game he played. Others knew him from a game we played based on the game he played. No matter how removed we were from him as a person, we appreciated his effort on the field.

Fans could be disappointed if TW jumped straight to Double-A in 2013... Happy holidays to everyone at BP! Loving all the off-season content. Can't wait for the Annual and spring content. Best, Burr

American Idle. Designers compete to create the best mother's-basement fan-caves for baseball stat geeks who have never actually been to a game.

I understand where you're getting that feeling. I think you're seeing an inverse relationship where his low price tag 3/$30m is one of the factors contributing to the better prospect haul. If his salary demands were 3/$45m, Toronto wouldn't be offering as nice a prospect package.

Baseball and I have an open relationship, but no other sports get my attention when baseball's on stage.

I think he means "did you find a 'tell' that Crisp showed on his attempts that an observant catcher could communicate to his pitcher for a pitchout or a pickoff?"

If he's in spitting distance of 3000 hits by the end of 2014, the Yankees should be pretty happy with their offer.

Leet me get this straight, your asking what the case for his MVP would be if you don't count the individual stats that are actually indicative of performance? Setting aside the absurdity of that premise... did you hear the narrative about how the rookie was called up and sparked the teams turnaround? And how his team won more games in a tougher division than Cabrera's?

Off the top of my head: Defense, Baserunning, OBP, OPS+.

I love the pitch sequencing. Not sure wher I read this before, but I believe Maddux would throw the change up down and in to righties when he was looking to get a strike via a pulled foul ball. Not sure if that's insightful or common knowledge.

... you have entered the Twilight Zone.

Since we're picking on agents, we should add a wrinkle to require them to submit a 'reserve' on their players before the draft. If the reserve isn't met by the bid when named by a team, then the team gets its $ back into its pool, but they cannot bid on that player again...

Sealed bid.

And the draftee's agent has less to do after draft day...

How 'bout Staten Island?

I'm sure this has been done elsewhere, but just for my own notes, here are the side-by-side comparisons of some various stats from B-Ref, FanGraphs, and BP. Apologies in advance for the formatting. Stat . Cabrera . Trout Hitting PA . . . 697. . . 639 Avg . . .330 . . .326 OBP . . .393 . . .399 SLG . . .606 . . .564 OPS+ . . 165. . . 171 TAv . . .352 . . .359 oWAR . . 7.4. . . 8.6 VORP. . 59.4 . . 76.6 Running SB . . . 004. . . 049 CS . . . 001. . . 005 SB%. . . 80%. . . 91% GIDP . . 028. . . 007 BRR. . .-5.5. . . 8.7 Fielding FRAA . .-2.3. . . 8.6 UZR . .-11.2. . . 11.0 1-number stats WAR. . . 6.9. . . 10.7 WARP . . 6.1. . . 9.1

I'm fairly sure that Nate was up front about it in his writing this year, but not in each entry.

Do you get more value in the off-season or at the trade deadline? Bringing him back for the first half of the season buys goodwill (and season ticket packages) and also carries risks. But I suspect that's the path Sandy takes unless he receives a knockyoursocksoff offer this winter.

In your estimation, whom and why? In the AL West, it would take a whole lot of wallet to get into contention. How would one smartly go about it through free agency?

This reminded me that time is almost up for voting in the Internet Baseball Awards. Go vote.

Definitely enjoyed it - as usual. FYI, my reading skills improved considerably after my coffee kicked in. Aunt, grandmother. The IRS probably wounldn't know the difference, but you do. Happy birthday to your aunt!

This was a great read. I am way out of my league in statistical design and analysis, but humor me, please: Since expansion (or the '94 strike, or some other payroll-significant point in time), there have been several dozen paired-matchups of teams in both 5-game and 7-game postseason series. Would it be possible to run matched-pair analysis of these matchups, with the percent-difference in payroll as the independent variable and number of games to win as the dependent? It should be relatively straightforward to plot the results and also determine statistical significance. Although it would be substantially more work, I'd also love to see this analysis re-run using only the active playoff-payroll, to eliminate the effect of money lost due to injuries. I'd suspect that the number of matchups should be enough to reveal whether the payroll difference is significant.

I would first like to say this is absolutely brilliant. I mean the part where you make your trip to celebrate your grandmother's birthday into a business trip so you can write it off for tax purposes. Brilliant. The article is entertaining, and my subscription to BP is certainly better than burning my money, so that's good too.

I'm intrigued about your suggestion that Granderson might have been benched instead of Swisher. Had Girardi used an outfield of Ichiro, Gardner, and Granderson prior to last night? Had he used an outfield of Ichiro, Swisher, and Gardner this season? If so, which positions did they play?

I have had the "ace reliever" / "fireman" conversation more than once with a longtime friend. It usually revolves around whether it's more valuable to deploy Mariano Rivera in the 7th or 8th innings to preserve leads that were in danger, or keep him in the pen until the 9th to lock down a victory. I never took the time to research it, but the questions that we tossed about were: a) how many opportunities have there actually been where the opposing team was down by 3 or fewer runs and rallied in the 7th/8th with men on base, and how successful has the "closer" strategy actually been in these situations? a1) the starter was kept in and blew the lead. a2) the starter was kept in and preserved the lead a3) the closer was brought in and blew the lead. a4) the closer was brought in and preserved the lead. a5) a different reliever was brought in and blew the lead. a6) a different reliever was brought in and preserved the lead. A followup question to a1, a3, and a5 is how often the Yankees rallied back into the lead or a tie such that the 'closer' was then required to come in and preserve the new lead/tie. A followup question to a2, a4, and a6 is how often the preserved lead was later blown by a subsequent set-up guy or by the closer? A followup question to a4 is whether the closer ended up finishing the game anyway. b) how much better is your closer than the "different reliever"? (most of these are moot with Mariano, but relevant in other contexts) b1) with men on base b2) with the particular batter at the plate (handedness splits, matchups, etc.) c) would deploying the 'ace reliever'/'fireman' in the 7th and 8th innings increase the number number of innings he pitches in a season? c1) is this a good thing? c2) is this asking for an injury? ... at any rate, this is a fantastic conversation to have, as long as it's done in the spirit of friendship. If only somebody could answer all the subsequent questions it raises.

This would be brilliant.

Absolutely. People are meaning making machines." 1) Something happens. 2) We observe it. 3) We attached meaning to our observations. 4) Repeat. The more we advance technology, the more we we can parse our observations into more discrete granules. But that doesn't change any of the other steps in the process. This is the story of our lives.

Check the video replays again. I've looked at several different ones, and in many you can't even see second base. The few angles that show the bag, it appears to me that Holliday would have had to crawl back before he could reach it.

Tough play by Scutaro to stay in there and attempt to get some ooomph on his relay, and he paid the price for it. I listened 'live' on radio and it wasn't until later that I saw the replay. I was listening to SF radio announcers (Jon Miller makes the game so easy to listen to!), and they described it as a hard aggressive slide. I don't recall too much discussion of whether it was illegal, just more concern for Scutaro. Upon review of the replay, yes, he landed on top of the bag with his slide and then willfully carried himself well past the bag to collide with Scutaro. I don't think Holliday's hand could have reached the bag from where he ended up (after Scutaro's left leg and body brought his momentum to a stop). This is why second basemen used to jump to make their relay throw (not just moving towards the pitcher's mound and waving their left foot in the vicinity of the bag as we often see these days). I also don't think Scutaro realized how just how close Holliday was when he chose to stay planted to the ground to make that throw.

I think it could be possible, but still tricky. I'm pretty sure a player can walk away from the game before the end of his contract expires, and leave the guaranteed money in the Owner's pocket. Didn't a Royals' SP do that a few years ago (Gil Meche)? Not that I think ARod would do it. I don't think the players' union would be able to argue against it, unless he waits a couple months and then tries to sign up with a team for less than he was originally owed. That contract was a dubious value when the Yanks agreed to it, and it's not looking any better now.

I have no problem with the gist of the article, and I especially like the sub-title. Does firing (the manager) for losing also extend to other manager positions? Bench coaches, hitting coaches, scouting personnel, etc.? Who would ever go to work for ... the Astros? There's got to be some more to the backstory then simply wins & losses. Though fewer losses would have been good for his immediate paycheck.

Love the timestamp

I agree, I had the same thought... The umps call caused him to back off. Very late call. Hadn't thought about the implications of the runners advancing, but I still think he had a ways to backpedal before he was under that ball.

I heard the play on the radio. Didn't get to see it on television until much later. The radio description made it sound like it was a high fly ball that could have been caught by either fielder. The call was also not made by the infield umpire, which the radio announcers pointed out Couldn't happen in a regular-season game, Since there are no outfield umpires. When I did get a chance to see the replay it was clear the umpire made that call extremely late. His hand went up about the time the shortstop pulled up short. That's the part that bothers me - this is a judgement call that is supposed to be called 'immediately' upon the umpire's conclusion that ordinary effort of an infielder will result in an out. If he's waited for the infielder to run backwards for 45 feet before he makes that judgement, it wasn't ordinary effort.

Sam. Thanks, Sam. Don't know why I thought I was reading Derek's article. I'm going to say that the caffeine hasn't kicked in yet...

This was a fun exercise. Thanks, Derek. I wonder how many prior seasons exist that would have won the 2012 Triple Crown outright - not just disrupt it, but usurp it.

Zero is a bad idea, short of mathematically eliminated.

I would be remiss if I did not laud this article. Well done indeed. Do they have seminars on baseball? This should be in a seminar on baseball.

That's so weird.

Jason, are your readers and subscribers included in "the we" of Baseball Prospectus? Would you be okay if I invited myself to join you under that umbrella?

I don't think his DUI has any impact on this season's voting, nor should it. I read point 3 to be in the context of both a) this season, and b) team impact. "General character, disposition, loyalty, and effort." My take: If a player were involved in an off-field incident (whether it was a crime or simply another distraction), I would think to be relevant to the MVP Award, it would have to have a discernable effect on the team this season. Past mistakes having an impact today would be relevant, but past mistakes with no impact on this season's team / results would not. More germane to item #3 for Miggy, as mentioned by others above, would be his willingness to switch to a tougher defensive position in the off-season, work at it without complaint (as far as I can know), and be a congenial fellow on the team (I have nothing but anecdotal evidence here).

In. Easy.

Wow, time flies. And I guess this makes me a conspiracy-theory minded fan, because this is the first thing that popped in my head a while back when his potential comeback was first announced. I think it's entirely believable that he intends to mount a comeback because he feels he left too early. Still has something to prove. Has the fire in his belly. Etc. I also think that there's an obvious secondary bonus that resetting his eligibility by 5 years would make any negative perceptions held by voters even smaller in the rear-view mirror. I too am closer to 50 than 30, and would love to see him do it, just to know if he can.

Assuming Clemens finds a MLB taker, and he throws a few innings before injuries, sub-grade performance, or lack of interest ensues, would this reset the clock on his appearance on his inaugural HOF ballot? That alone would be incentive for him to try.

Congratulations to the BP team!

Wrought iron. So, the for-man rotation has wreaked?

Wrought havoc? Will Wreak havoc?

Great news! Good for him. Good for the camily's brand recognition, too.

My long lost cousin and first MLBer with our last name?

And women's wrestling in Yankee Stadium. Unfiltered posts were designed, in general, to have a broader base of topics. And yet, I too think this was a bad article. It was missing imbedded video.

Thx, Sam. Reddick is a model of consistency on those two swings. Front foot plants, hips rotate, arms extend, chin extends, top hand comes off the bat, back foot comes off the ground, body twists, eyes look into the stands behind the dugout. Consistency is beautiful.

Nice thoughts, Jason. Good article. But don't be ashamed of being smart. Don't be ashamed of being smarter than somebody else. I'd suggest, while I struggle with this myself on occasion, is that you should try not to judge yourself or others based on these facts. You write about being detached from the emotions you used to have for the sport or a particular team based upon your understanding of the deeper statistical forces at work. I gained that detachment from the '94 strike, when I concluded that I cared more about my team than either the owners or the players. That conclusion may have been incorrect, but I've never regained that same emotional attachment. I don't judge it, it's just the way it is. I don't think I could go back, either. But I have friends who still have that attachment, and I'm sure you do, too. Go Red Sox!

I was wondering if there's anything to prevent the club from simply paying him more in the years before arbitration as a sign of appreciation and to foster good will. Call it a performance bonus. It's not like he's not earning it.

Richard, I'm not saying he is currently producing like either of those players, but that they are possible comps as much as any of the other names tossed out there. I agree, Trout's 9% walk rate isn't close to Henderson's, but as you point out, he's making up for it in his Avg at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see his walk rate improve if pitchers start to pitch around him more. I read an article on line this morning (USA Today?) saying that others have also comped him to Mickey Mantle. I mean jeez. No pressure.

Is it unfair to comp Rickey Henderson's career, or 1975 Fred Lynn? Sit and wait another year or 18 months before making any decisions...

I'd like to see Bolt go first to third more than I would see him trying out for ManU.

$659, too.

'x plus $639' sounds a lot better than 'x' to agents.

On second thought, I changed my mind on Mike Trout. He bends haiku rules.

Poetic cadence Enjoyable as always. Thank you, Ben Lindbergh.

Trout's noteworthy stats Are deserving of haiku. Not eighth syllable.

Verlander's so good, Predicted FRA ... what?!!! Alas, a typo.

'fix' the game by 1) removing WS-HFA. 2) carrying two AAA / Future Star SPs in the bullpen as extras in case of a long tie game. 3) managers can manage their rosters however they see fit, and are encouraged to get all the rostered players into the game for maximum fan enjoyment. 4) more in-game marketing opportunities and promotions using social media, with giveaways for the WS and next Year's All*Star game. It's an exhibition game, so let's really make it into a mid-season carnival.

Hometown fans booed David Ortiz because it meant they didn't get to see Billy Butler hit in that inning. I don't think anybody really cares who wins, just as long as they can see some remarkable and popular favorite players up against others. That's what counts.

Then he's got a future in baseball for sure.

So, hey, that pizza cutter guy was on to something. Hope he's still got gainful employment somewhere if that baseball statistics hobby/career path doesn't pan out.

I have missed these the past several days...

In high school, I got caught in a pickle between third and home on a pick off move by the RHP. Pickle ended after just two throws, when the catcher threw the ball into the back of my helmet and I scampered home. Most fun I ever had base running. Mind you, my coaches were pissed! I swore the pitcher balked by stepping towards home and not towards third. My coaches said, "you can't balk to third base."

I am in agreement. I think technology has changed the experience of the game, and fans of the game have different expectations today than in yesteryear. I think the fifth umpire in a booth at the game could help on the rest of the umpire crew with the calls in the field. This won't come up more than a couple times a game, but getting the call right could be very important to the score/outcome. Such as bang-bang plays at first base (See: Armondo Gallaraga). Call on the field stands unless there's compelling/conclusive video evidence to overturn it within 30 seconds. It would be solved before the manager can even get to the umpire on the field to argue the call, so it's not like it would slow down the game any. We would still run into some challenges, such as a fair ball down the line called foul ... can't just award two bases to the batter and runners after the fact, right? But I think fixing the obvious mistakes that can be fixed is far more acceptable than doing nothing.

I overheard any interesting conversation between two baseball fans of a certain age. Went something like this: Person 1: There's a basic philosophical difference between the young folks today, and those of our generation. Person 2: Sure is. Person 1: these young fans are more concerned about getting the call right than they are with the game itself. Person 2: I agree. Person 1: the game has a human element, including the players and the umpires. Instant replay would destroy the human element. Person 2: absolutely. Person 1: if a player can convince the umpire that something happened, but it didn't, that's still an important part of the game. A time honored part of the game. It's part of the mystique of the game. Something to talk about at the office the next day. Person 2: Truly is. Person 1: just because we have the technology to get every call right, doesn't mean we should. These young fans don't care about the mystique of baseball. All they seem to want is for the calls to be right. Person 2: they could have a point there.

Thank you, Jay. Have a great weekend.

HE"S A FLIP-FLOPPER! FIRST HE WAS FOR YOUKILIS TRADE, AND NOW HE"S AGAINST IT!! HE"S A SOCIALIST COMMIE FASCIST FLIP-FLOPPER!

RUNS NEED TO BE MANUFACTURED IN THE USA!!!

IT'S BUSH'S FAULT!

SEND OBUMMER BACK TO CHICAGO OR ELSE HE WILL SOCILIZE MLB WITH THE LARGEST REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN OUR PASTIMES" HISTORY!!!1

10-team semi-traditional 7x7 snake-draft league. 30-man active roster with an additional 3DL slots available if needed. 9 starting position players, 5SP and 6RP, with 1475 IP limit & 30-move limit. We have 1 (whining) player with 7 guys on the DL at the moment. (Have a good weekend, David!) Awesome fun league to play in, and I say that without ever having won & currently way back in 7th place with 3 guys on the DL.

Fare thee well, Jamie Moyer. Thanks for doing what you did the way you did it.

Do we have a large enough sample at this point to evaluate the effect of defense behind the Detroit pitchers? Before the season, there was speculation that the K-rate would be the best way to neutralize the butchery. Max might have been reading.

If you don't sign a pick, you don't get to use the money on another pick.

Belt or Adams for remainder of season (warming the bench behind Dunn)?

No worries. Not my clearest post. Gotta stop posting from my iPhone (like I am now). Have a great weekend.

I believe the aging curve for Dunn would anticipate a lower batting average (yes, really) and increase in HR/9. Anyone out there able to confirm or deny with some BP PECOTA aging curves?

1) I love all the imbedded visuals in the articles this year. But that's unrelated to the subject at hand: the explanation for Ortiz's defiance of the dreaded Age Escarpment. And it's a great exploratory article. My guesses: 2) took a while to recover from the injury. 3) best shape of his career. 4) revamped his mechanics. 5) altered his approach / patience / selectivity. 5) lighter bat? Not sure if there is any evidence that he might have switched his lumber, but I'm speculating simply based on the results.

Hoot, I'll reply because you asked. You catch more flies with honey. So, if you're looking for pluses, make your posts as respectful as if you were commenting / replying to your own mother. Offer compliments before criticisms, and be gentle even so. That's the best I can suggest. Good luck!

This Clete is made for walkin', and thats just what he'll do. This Clete is made for walkin' if he'd stop swinging at ball two.

What if we were to look at this from the other side? How would a researcher set out to prove that home runs are evenly distributed? One way would be to investigate the likelihood of multiple-HR games vs. the observed data. But I think we're in agreement that multi-homer games will not going capture the essence of what we all think of as "in bunches." So, what other ways might one go about it?

I was at Monday's Yanks/O's game with a few friends, & we all stood during Mo's 9th inning appearance. One of us commented that we didn't know how many more times we would get a chance to see him close a game in person. ... I'm going to go find that guy and kick his butt.

Texas had won 17 games, and Hamilton was worth 13WARP? That should be VORP, yes?

Ben, I think we can all agree that home runs are not distributed evenly, yes? Pujols may hit 39HR/162 games, but that doesn't mean he hits 1HR Every 4 games or so. It's not clockwork. It's not even Old' Faithful. Therefore, if it's not distributed exactly evenly, then they must be unevenly distributed... in bunches. QED.

Is the new regression process applied to catchers, too?

I believe Kendall benefits JAWS-wise from The latest methodology where you no longer toss out the lowest HOFamer in the comparison, and also the fact that almost 30% of the inductees are VC selections.

The difference in Earned and Unearned Runs is, I would think, where the rarity of pitching lines is to be found (probablistically speaking) in otherwise "normal looking" lines.

Yep. The value at a given pick can/should only include the WARP of the remaining players available. Dynamic, as it were.

I've often wondered if there is any incental advantage for pitchers shifting on the rubber to try to mitigate platoon splits. Given the chart above, I'm less inclined to wonder. Agree?

The slightly less lazy doctor app (As mine said when looking at my sore throat this winter): "That looks like it hurts. Would you like a prescription painkiller?"

I like the format and execution of these 'What you need to know' articles. Thank you.

Awesome!!! Deadlines for the folks employing me are likely going to make it impossible to join the round table party, but today is a happy day.

Autism awareness deserves a shout-out here. It is becoming so prevalent in our children, if it doesn't affect you directly you probably know somebody whom it does. It seems even the experts understand very little, except that it is becoming very common.

Surely that distinction would go to a member who is distinguished by a palindrome which is the multiple of the 7th prime by the 12th prime by three cubed. Or maybe by the multiple of the uniform numbers of Hall of Famers Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Earl Averill, Bob Feller, and Casey Stengel. Or maybe not.

Yes. Yes, we are. Have a great weekend.

My wife votes for Gloria Estefan. Cantina Band is the runner up.

The 'culprit' is the change in pitcher usage: "Back at the start of the era of divisional play, strikeout rates for starting pitchers and relievers were essentially even, right around 5.8 K/9. Forty-three years later, starters have picked up almost a strikeout per nine without pitching as far into the ballgame. However, the real key to the spike in strikeout rates has been the relievers, as they've reached 7.5 K/9 while pitching a larger portion of every ballgame."

Great piece, CK. At the 1st NYC booksigning, there was a brief discussion on a similar topic regarding defense vs. hitting at third base. Cabrera was prominently mentioned. Chipper Jones came to my mind. Admittedly 3B is a bit further to the left on the defensive spectrum than LF & RF. Looking forward to the rest of the new book. Best regards & have a great weekend!

I don't feel it would be appropriate to take a picture, but there's a youngster on the train near me wearing a t-shirt with a pi symbol on the front. Wouldn't have had any clue about it if not for your article. It all makes sense now.

Pitcher's park?

Delete, delete, delete... Misread the chart. All better now.

I'm confused. If Bumgarner is projected for 2.1 WARP. Why does the Giants chart not increase that amount between the second & third pitcher slots?

Ahhh... Right there in the middle of the article. I'll go back to reading now...

Didn't Dunn rush back after a spring appendectomy? Or so I recall. Not saying there's any evidence that this is a smoking gun, but it could be a contributing factor at least anecdotally.

It would be a shame if these aren't compiled and published as short fiction later this summer as a work of short fiction. The general reading public should have access to these.

Excellent! Disaster averted. NL can join modern MLB society, and pitchers can still hit if they can convince their manager to DH for the shortstop.

Okay, modify the DH rule to allow one position player or the pitcher to not hit.

Was this the precursor to today's announcement?

I'd like to suggest a farewell toast after the book signing on Monday. Pick a watering hole nearby, and I'll buy the first round.

Darn iPhone flagged this for moderation when I tried to plus it. Can't digger out how to unflagging it now...

I missed the previous installment of this series. Very well presented & looking forward to the rest.

I knew some of my fantasy team must have been involved. I was right. But, I would have to go back and check to be sure, I hope Scherzer was on my bench that evening.

Rocket-surgery is not as difficult as they make it out to be, thankfully.

Aha. I'll take this as a reminder to know all the league rules and use them to your advantage. It's been quite a while since I've played in a league where IP was unrestricted. That being the case, and with the weekly moves you mention below, filling this spot on a rotating basis with 2-start SPs could be the way to go.

You might be surprised at how many wins & strikeouts you could get with the elite setup man option in addition to the bump in ERA and WHIP. The added benefit being a few extra $ to spend on top-tier hitter(s).

I've found that year after year, money doesn't buy as much as it used to. Prices are actually increasing! My studies have shown that 87% of the time that there is an increase in population in a given year, prices go up. An increase in population means that there is increased demand for goods. Using basic economics, we know that an increase in demand allows companies to incrementally raise the prices of their goods and services. Don't let nobody tell you different.

I thought Verducci effect explained how pitch velocity increased when hurlers were squeezed through narrow openings in MLB rosters.

This is interesting research. Not being a PITCHf/x analyst, I studied the two plots carefully. From my limited experience trying to hit or catch knuckles, I remember the 'flutter' typically happening very late in the trajectory. And while the magnitude of the fluttering in the chart above is minimal, I would suggest that the lower plot jigs 5 times in the last 20 feet of that throw while the other pitch jigged once along the same distance. And that is only when viewed in the horizontal plane. I would not be surprised to see a similar result in the vertical plane. I wonder if there is some other visual effect happening that exaggerates the magnitude of the actual measured flutter. The visual system is actually optimized for predictability. The signals from the photoreceptors are actually neurologically inter-connected and signals are being interpreted even before any impulse has transited the optic nerve. The signal is being processed at a neurological level to identify (and track) the motion. Our brains actually track the scene and the motion in response to where the neurons expect it to be, rather than the physical reality of where it actually is. Our visual system does this constantly, and it usually works for us. [You may remember doing 'blindspot' tricks in elementary school, where our brains fill in the 'blindspot' where all the ganglion cells leave our eye through the optic nerve where there are no actual photo receptors to respond to incoming light]. And so, the unpredictable nature of the fluttering actually tricks our visual system into exaggerating the true magnitude of the effect. So the next question would be, how can a hitter prevent their visual system from working as evolution has trained us to see? Because if I'm right, it isn't helping us to hit a knuckler...

Very interesting. Adding same vs. opposing handedness of pitchers as an independent variable would / could really raise the importance of this study.

I'm looking forward to reading the transcript of the 'liveblog' for the worst game of the year. If there were no useful fantasy implications, then I suspect several of my team's starters must have played in it...

That jumped out at me, too. Only if by "arguably" you mean that it could get you into a scuffle if you said that out loud in the Bronx. If Pre-Season PECOTA is predicting the Red Sox "arguably" the best team in the AL in any other definition, I think you may need to kick its tires.

Pre-ordered my softcover copy along with the Best of BP series this past weekend. I'm psyched that I will be able to get a copy for my iPhone to read on my train commute! I could not possibly find a better way to spend the iTunes gift cards from xmas... trust me, I've tried. Thank you!

Yeah, thankfully I have no money riding on it either.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that this is their intention. Just saying that you shouldn't outright discount the possibility in 2 years because Detroit was the high bidder today. The circumstances of the other teams are going to change, and it's impossible to predict exactly how, and all it takes is one team looking to fill a need. As to being a defense attorney, I don't have the disposition for it.

cut/paste fail.

Today, your analysis is right on target. Everything you say makes absolutely perfect sense. However, circumstances change. What looks absolute today may not look the same in a couple years. History bears this out. The number of players/contracts that defy Largest contract in the history of the game (at the time) was ARod in Texas. At the time of the signing, Texas valued him WAY higher than any other team both in terms of $ and years. Result: traded mid-contract. I recall a few other cases where the signing seemed way too expensive at the time, and too many years, and yet the circumstances changesd a trade happened mid-contract where a trade was possible: Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado come to mind. Derek Lowe in Atlanta wasn't quite as long, but similar value/cost issues. Short story: don't rule out the possibility that another team is going to want Fielder (and his contract) 2 years from now even though they weren't the high-bidder this off-season.

There is precedent for this strategy. Delgado Marlins/Mets, if I remember correctly. Not to say that is evidence it is a strategy worth emulating (for either party), but it is a valid point of view.

Other reasons to like "POP" include: a positive baseball term, a palindrome, onomatopaeia, and a homonym. It is, in fact, my favorite word for these reasons. Well done.

Interesting! First one that came to mind for me was eerily similar: K-to-4 ratio.

Can we anticipate not reading about Moyer in this Year's annual (coming soon to a book-selling franchise near you!)?

This is great stuff, Jason. I think it reinforces what I've observed in snake drafts, too. Selections in the very top rounds are important, but rounds 4-9 and 20+ can really make the biggest difference over the course of a season.

Depends what your alternatives are. If you have The Yankees lineup, sure. If your idea of a lead off player is a speedy out-maker, then not so much.

1, 2, 3, 5, 6. I withhold voting on 4 & 7 til I see what other options are on the ballot next week. I'm not familiar with 4 as a commonly held belief, and money does buy its way out of mistakes. 1 is dismissive. Imagine the defense attorney after the prosecution has nailed it's case on Law and Order, "Yeah, your honor, but still..." 2 is one of the classic blunders right up there with Sicilians & death. 3. Human element is meant to be the players' performance, not the first base umpire blowing the call on a Perfect Game. 5. He wasn't the most dominant sports writer of his era, so he doesn't get a vote. 6. You can't know how good he was until 20 years have pAst since his prime/memorable moment. The passing of time brings more clarity unfettered by wistful nostalgia, right? No? Yeah, but still.

Tot ziens!

Evans & Nettles both squeezing above Edgar at 3B eligibility. Not looking good for Edgar.

Bummer not being able to edit comments, right?

From past experience, the books are usually on the way to online distributors and chai-store warehouses by Feb.10~ish). Depending on where you stand in said distributor's queue, you could receive by Valentine's Day or President's Day weekend. And, it could be on shelves at your local brick-and-mortar around the same time. In the past, I have tried to go out of my way to buy my book at locations where BP has done book signings. And I've ordered online as well. I'd like to know if it makes any difference to BP's bottom line where we order. I suspect that clicking through from the website is slightly more profitable for BP than any other method, but would love to get confirmation on that...

Note to readers: one Raines vote up for convincing next December. You know where to send the emails starting after Game 7...

(off-stage whisper: Check the caption on the photo...)

I believe it was actually for the "Golden Rule Farm for Boys" but I could be mistaken. It was a long time ago...

"Raines joins Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, and Lee Smith on this year’s JAWS-approved ballot." Fundamentally, the JAWS level is set to distinguish those players whose stats are "at or above" the average inducted player at each position. These 5 players hit that threshold and have not yet seen the love of the voters. I would be very pleasantly surprised if they make progress towards induction this year, as the near future years will be packed with many more high quality candidates. Thanks for the series, as always.

I was surprised (pleasantly) to see the Quentin trade info so quickly. Might have been nice to have set the expectation up front as a 'first take' or 'quick look' including an explanation that for expedience it was not going to include a review of the prospects involved & that such would come later. I think there's a place for a quick response that may not cover all the angles. Just let us know that's what it is up front. Thanks for listening.

A conversation summary from a few years ago between me and my boss: [Miscommunication about deadlines on a project, and we under-deliver to a client] Boss: Baseball seems to have become a distraction for you. Burr: I don't believe that baseball had anything to do with what happened. Boss: When I was just getting started in the professional world, I worked with a guy who did a lot of cocaine. Everybody knew he would take a line on his breaks, and he always delivered brilliant on his work. But when he seriously screwed up a project, everyone around him knew that the coke had become a distraction, even though he swore up and down that it was unrelated. Burr: I still don't believe that baseball had anything to do with what happened. But if you want me to start doing coke, I'm going to need a raise.

I, for one, welcome our new baseball overlords.

Thanks to you both, and all the folks behind the scenes bringing us the annual updates and publications. Happy New Year!

In Morris' case, the extra innings he pitched compared to Radke we're not necessarily high-quality innings. And the remainder of his career is one of good pitching and even better run support. Not necessarily the characteristics we associate with his career, but there you have it. One memorable and remarkable high-pressure performance in 1991 has colored the public perception of the rest of his career.

Just spent some time looking for JAWS in the sortable stats and came up empty. Nice to see the career stat sortables, but would love to have JAWS in there, too. Is that something that we might one day have available? Also just read Greg Spira's research article on pitching to the score thanks to the way-back machine. Run support is a valuable commodity in a pitcher.

Jay, I love these articles and analyses. One of the highlights of the off-season. I don't know how much trouble it would be, but I find your use of JAWS lists to be particularly illuminating in these discussions to show context of the nominees' achievements. Could you add lists showing the 7 players ranked just above/below each of the nominees being discussed according to JAWS? For instance, you mention that Morris ranks 167th for SPs on JAWS. Can you list the pitchers who are 160-175? Same for Radke. Same for Smith and the RPs. Since the role has evolved considerably, I expect this list may not be as revealing as the list for SPs, but I think it might still be educational. Thanks in advance!

Pavano (to himself): shyeah, baby. Cashman (to himself): shyeah, baby. Photographer (out loud): everyone say "show me the money"

Testicular torsion sounds unpleasant, Colin.

Texas may not be done. But who is left in the Fielder Derby? Is it really down to Texas, Toronto & Seattle?

I'm curious how far this winter's meetings have shifted the balance of power in the AL. PECOTA, PECOTA, let down your hair.

Keepin' up with the Joneses. An analogy from my own field of expertise would be the "Energy Conservation" language in the Building Codes. A building that would have exhibited exemplary energy conservation in 2004 wouldn't be given a building permit today. The Department of Energy keeps tightening the limits on allowable energy use. To even be allowed on the playing field (getting a permit), a GM (architect) needs to be about 40% more effective (efficient) than s/he was in 2001. If you don't keep up with the available tools & technology, you will no longer have a job. If you, as a building owner, want to achieve exemplary energy performance, you're hiring architects who are conversant in cutting edge technologies that may not have even existed in 2004. I imagine this is true in every industry, not just mine; not just baseball.

Jeez... somebody hit me. One of the four playoff qualifiers from each league's Regular Season is declared World Champion, by virtue of winning the three-round elimination World Series playoff. As a side note, I think it would be totally awesome to see other leagues around the world qualify teams to play in the World Series and compete for the title.

I'd be all for calling a game-ending dinger just about anything other than "walk-off." Sayonara works.

Any of the four playoff qualifiers from each league in the Regular Season is declared World Champion.

To qualify for the World Series, a team has to endure a 162-game summertime event called the MLB Regular Season. Any of the four playoff qualifiers from the Regular Season is declared World Champion. If you know of teams who want to pony up to join the MLB franchise and compete for title of World Champ, MLB can be contacted here: The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball Allan H. (Bud) Selig, Commissioner Address: 245 Park Avenue, 31st Floor City: New York, State: NY Zip Code: 10167 Phone: 212-931-7800 Fax: 212-949-5654

There's a fine line between arrogance and confidence. One of the major differences tends to be that arrogance focuses solely on strengths without acknowledging weaknesses. You have admitted that MLB's superior level of competition is "never in doubt." So, we're all confident about this. The undisputed fact is that MLB is the highest level of competition. MLB is the World Championship. This is simply confidence, supported by all the facts. Maybe at some point in the future there would be a case for calling it arrogance, but today is not that day.

If there were a World Championship to play in, then I agree it would be arrogant to claim the title without actually winning the event. Are you suggesting the World Baseball Classic or the Olympics should measure the "World Champs?" (Let's agree not to be absurd.)

Got it. Ichiro came to the U.S. because he wanted to pit his skills against "American Club Teams." Not because he had nothing left to prove against the level of competition in Japan.

In Hong Kong, 1980, I was my Little League team's MVP. In '81 and '82, I earned the same recognition on my team stateside. I am clearly baseball's Little League World Champion. I don't think anybody in the U.S. or elsewhere would argue if Barcelona wished to declare themselves World Champs. If Chunichi played 162 games in MLB and then another dozen in the post-season, they would have some claim to that title. Can somebody run a Davenport Translation to see if Pittsburgh would be competitive in Japan over the last decade? Not that I'm suggesting they'd win the league.

There's got to be more to Albaladejo's performance at Scranton... north of 4/1 K/BB and why did he leave for Japan? This seems like it could make for a story on its own...

No copy-editorial suggestions for Tommy Bennett's intro. Once again, good luck! And, g'night.

No copy-editorial suggestions for Parks' intro.

Volume II, Colin's intro to Chapter 5 - Page 12 of the .pdf: "And since most of us our introduced to the game as children..." most of us were introduced... On to Jason Parks...

I find it amusing that upon re-reading my own comments, I find mistakes that require editing.

Please don't let my tardiness affect your publishing schedule. I'm doing this for fun - you're doing this for business.

I am particularly fond of the credits... an excellent counterweight to Ben's introduction regarding the benefits and dangers of keeping the band together.

Chapter 4 introduction Page 279 of the .pdf, first paragraph "McGraw could function not only as the team’s on-field boss but also as a part-time general manager, scout, and instructor, acquiring, developing, and training his own prospects without recourse to the minor leagues." Suggest a colon between "instructor" and "acquiring" rather than a comma. Page 279, end of the second paragraph: I'm not sure what "mouthier" refers to with regard to Derek Jeter’s and his work ethic . Frisch had Derek Jeter's work ethic, but he was 'mouthy' to whom - to teammates? To McGraw? To opponents? For clarity, it might be useful to compare Alomar's results, Jeter's work ethic, and a third player's mouth... or drop the 'mouthier' aspect entirely, since it doesn't seem to impact the rest of the annecdote. Page 279, third paragraph: "For Frisch, being captain meant..." I think you mean "For McGraw, Frisch being the captain meant..." Quoting Frisch on Page 280: "Thevenow hit a grounder to my left as I was moving to second, and I couldn’t have topped the ball if I’d had a net on a long pole." ... couldn't have stopped the ball. Page 280, first paragraph after the quote: "... it was clear that the relationship was irreparable, and that December, McGraw traded him to the Cardinals for Rogers Hornsby." Given all the commas in this compound sentence, it may read easier if the end is changed to "McGraw traded him to the Cardinals for Rogers Hornsby that December." Page 281, last paragraph: "... stripping away those arbitrary distinctions and getting at story, the decisions, accidents, coincidences, and yes, emotions, that motivated the events on the field—and in one case (mine) ourselves." Suggest a colon between "story" and "the decisions" instead of a comma.

I lied. I just read CK's intro to Chapter 3, and I have no copy-editorial suggestions. Cheers! On to Chapter 4. Comments, if any, to follow.

Day 2, Chapter 2. Mike Fast's introduction for Pitching: Page 103 of the .pdf: middle of the first paragraph: "do certain combinations of pitch types augur for better success as a starter" ... suggest removing "for" from the sentence, and possibly even replace "better" with "greater." Page 103: Second paragraph: "Another major area of ongoing research is in the quantification of pitcher effectiveness, in at least two general areas." Remove the first "in." Page 105, last paragraph: "As this sort of video record becomes available and computing power increases, the ability of the analyst to make a detailed analysis of every play will also only continue to increase." Remove the "also," the "only," or both of these words from the end of the sentence. ... I will be unlikely to get the chance to read any more of the intros before you self-publish, but thanks for the chance to preview them! Once again - good luck!

Agree with JRM - cool beans, indeed. And good luck with the sales of this collection! My quick take in a read of Jay's intro to Volume I after a long week both in the field and in the office: Page 12 of the .pdf: It might be useful to the new reader if the acronym (PED) is printed in parentheses immediately after it's spelled out the first time it's used. Page 15: The word 'that' is repeated: "The move has been frequently used against several lefty sluggers of recent vintage such as Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, David Ortiz, and Jim Thome, but Fox points out that that—theoretically, at least—there exist pull-heavy righthanded hitters against whom such a shift might be successfully employed as well." Page 15: The paragraph beginning with "Speaking of models..." should probably be three sentences instead of two. Let the first thought stand on its own. Next sentence begins with "He elegantly..." All the best. Now off to bed with me.

Another quick observation with regard to the "median" line, with the HOF CF list: With the weighted set, and if Hamilton is above the new line, then there are 8 players above and 10 below. Previously, there were 6 above and 12 below. Would be interesting to see how the WS relates to the median line at the other positions...

Thanks, Jay! My first take is that I like this tweak. I am going to mull this over more carefully, and I'll offer any thoughts later. In the meantime, I did notice that in the list of CF, unless there's a typo in the scores, then Billy Hamilton should be listed above the weighted mean. Thanks also for actively seeking to improve the (already great) JAWS system. Complacence is for the weak!

I agree.

Jay, with the "new JAWS," where would Santo appear in a ranking of inductees and non-inductees? What couple players are above / below him on the list? Are there other 3Bs now who have passed Santo as "most-worthy" non-inductees (who are no longer on the BBWAA ballot)? Thanks!

I look forward to reading more on the new WARP valuations, and thanks for keeping JAWS current. My prediction is that Santo, Minoso, and Hodges get the most support from the VC... er, Era Committee. Whether it's enough support to get inducted, if anybody gets in, Santo will. Ron Santo, Hall of Famer.

Thank you, Sam Miller. Indeed, Gonzalez was a really good player. You make an interesting read (though I agree with Yarky's point, above). To be honest, I sorta felt guilty enjoying your review/criticism/shredding of the brochure. Maybe you can reach out to Luis Rodriguez Mayoral and offer to help with next year's effort... I'd definitely like to see Page 7 (at least that's what it's labeled on the brochure, not page 9) from Barry Bonds' brochure.

What, now you expect the BBWA voters to count the spots on the giraffes, too? Last year, Felix Hernandez had every 'advanced' metric lopsidedly favoring him, including several conventional stats like Ks. The Ws didn't follow, but the voters responded to his case. Halladay and Lee didn't have the same slam-dunk case, and Kershaw is certainly deserving, too. VORP agrees - and so too did the Internet Baseball Award voters, apparently. There's no controversy here.

... lending more credence to the postulation that the 8th inning set-up guy and/or the closer might be better utilized in the high-leverage situations early in the game...

Larry, great stuff. As always. For future reference, the plural of runner-up is runners-up. One of those crazy grammar rules that I remember, perhaps because I overuse hyphenated-words to confuse the word-counts in electronic-documents.

Having trouble reconciling these two statements: "Despite garnering 47 percent of first-place votes, Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury actually appeared on 19 more ballots and finished second in the balloting." "While Ellsbury finished second overall, he did not finish second in first-place votes; Tigers ace Justin Verlander snagged 22 percent of all first-place votes compared to Ellsbury's 19 percent." I anticipate that there is a "Bautista" missing as the second word of the first sentence...

Hard for the show's producers to get the dinosaurs (Reynolds, etc.) to come back for another episode if you rip their statements to shreds.

Awesome!

Paging Mr. Ryan - Mr. Nolan Ryan - you have a call on the BP hotline.

Of course, I just magnified the effect by 10 in my caffeine-deprived state. A 2.4 actual WARP x 10 players over 15 years would naturally translate to 1.6 win difference each year. While not as bowl-you-over important as what I wrote above, that's still an important impact. At the value of $5m per win, that's $8m value each year. That's a big chunk of a team's payroll.

A couple thoughts: I think you missed a point about the discounting of the WARP in this analysis. A 1.17 Discounted WARP is different than 1.17 WARP. Though I agree with you that this appears to be a small difference over a 15 year career. Not sure what this would mean to actual WARP over that timeframe, but it's more (much more) than 1.17. For the sake of the analogy below, let's assume that the actual difference in the players WARP might be 2.4 (pulled this out of my hat, but go with me for a moment). Let's say that knowledge of this inefficiency had impacted a team's draft several years ago, without other teams catching on to their draft strategy. Let's also posit that at any given time today, 10 of the players on their roster today had been drafted by the organization. Which specific ten players are on the roster may change over time as players leave for free agency, suffer injuries, etc.. However, over the next fifteen years, and all else being equal, the aggregate of the 10 drafted players would produce 240 more wins than the competition. That's an average advantage of 16 wins a year. I think that could be important at an organizational level. Nice job, Rany. I love learning something new about baseball.

When people say "life's not fair," this is what they're talking about.

I enjoyed this. I want to recount numerous stories of vehicular mishaps, all of which are vastly entertaining for me to tell, but which I suspect are not actually entertaining. End result: no passengers ever hit or hurt, no other cars ever hit or hurt. But damn, I still think they're good stories to tell. On a side note, Funck's writing reminds me of Arthur C. Clarke.

Like. Also like the Daily Hit List (which doesn't allow comments yet). In that vein, please note that today's Hit List shows the Red Sox, Rays, Braves, and Cardinals with a combined 0% chance of making the playoffs. I'm pretty sure that's inaccurate.

Is notoriety a stat? My wife knows who Reggie Jackson is. Hell, my *mom* knows who Reggie Jackson is. They know who he is because of the general publicity he received for his exploits on the field. Adam Dunn has no publicity outside the baseball world. Ergo, Adam Dunn < Reggie Jackson.

I believe Royce Clayton also played the role of himself striking out in The Rookie...

Hey, wait a sec. What are you trying to pull here?! What's Steven Goldman doing writing an article about something other than the Yankees?

Number of enjoyable articles to read: ~20.

My thought in the small size would be that it's something that a minor league fan could bring to the ballpark to keep track of some of the hot prospects on the other team's roster. YMMV.

A few weeks after the Annual is published, a softcover paperback size of either KG's Top 101, or his awesome compilation of each team's Top 11. I'll add the disclaimer that I'm not as interested in the prospect side of BP as many of KG's ardent followers, so I'm not sure how in-depth an analysis those who would purchase the book would be expecting...

Like it! Might benefit from a stat glossary at the bottom, for those unaccustomed to the headings. Thanks for (considering) bringing it back!

It's fair to say that 11 seasons of 200-hit ball for Ichiro would be unlikely.

NICE!

Yes, spending money doesn't necessarily solve all your problems - but it creates new ones most GMs would love to have! Farewell, K-Rod. Farewell, Beltran. Farewell, Omar. Farewell, Cow jumping over the moon.

Didn't see it live. Looks like the wrist angle might shift slightly in the frames when the tag would have been applied, indicating there was some contact. Conclusive, no. In answer to question #3, if a video replay system is enacted, I believe all direct and indirect evidence should be admissable for review. Whatever it takes to get the right call. But players don't always make the right conclusions, either. In fact they're more likely to make the wrong one than the umpire.

Agree with dcarroll, above. Good goin'. Now how do we get to work on Raines' case? Seriously.

Colin, I took a little time to think this over before posting my comment. No real questions here, just some observations. If this spurs others to have additional questions or comments, I'm all for it. First, I really like the analysis. This could easily be a week's worth of articles for me to work my way through. Hopefully sleeping on it for one night was enough for it all to sink in. There are two and a half takeaways that I have from the initial table, neither of which is new information for me: 1) SIERA slightly outperforms xFIP and FIP in the prediction of long-term future ERA when given a small sample size to work from (definitely at 100 IPs, and very slightly at 200 IPs). 1.5) After about two seasons of data for a young starter(300 IPs), the estimators are about as useful a predictor as ERA itself. 2) After 300 IPs, ERA actually becomes a slightly better predictor of future ERA than the estimators. Why does SIERA outperform the other estimators with the small sample of data? The components may be needlessly complicated once you get to 300IPs, but for small data samples, those extra variables seem to have some added predictive power. I would LOVE to have seen QERA side-by-side in that first table. And, as evo34 notes above, if prediction was the real goal of the estimators, then park factors would almost certainly need to be included. Would park factors offer any added value? For everything else you presented, I'm going to have to re-read and re-sleep-on-it. Could be an interesting and entertaining weekend. Thank you.

I certainly hope we get at least five more articles in this series. A good idea whose time has come.

Summer of 2001, sitting in the left field lower level seats in foul territory at Yankee stadium. I was on a double date with my girlfriend of a couple months, her friend, and the guy her friend had just started dating. I had just bought a round of beers for everybody from a roaming vendor, and we were passing the plastic cups down the line when everyone around us stood up suddenly. *smack* The guy in the seat in front of me had just reached back and barehanded a liner that would have hit one of the two women if he hadn't caught it. At least that's what my conscience tells me for losing my focus on the game. It all ended well, however, because within four years both women had married their dates of that day.

Kick butt. I'm not qualified, but a nice opportunity for somebody who is!

Rules are a substitute for thinking. Sometimes mindlessly obeying the rules is good. Like traffic laws, for instance. After a few years of repitition of the same learned behavior, we will naturally stay on the right side of the road while we're driving sober and alert, without any conscious thought. You "wake up" a few minutes later and find yourself pulling into your driveway. Nobody got hurt, and you're now home. Sometimes this is bad. Insert your parallel of choice. I'll invoke Maslow's hammer. "If the only tool you think you have is a hammer, then you'll view every problem as a nail."

Kevin, it's a big step for BP, and I think a smart move by Sirius as well. I'm a subscriber for a few years myself. It's a timeslot that probably gets a lot more air time on the left coast than it will on the right - but ya gotta start somewhere. Good job, and good luck!

Fastforward to Jay Jaffe's recap in the next Unfiltered Post: "On the eighth pitch of the at-bat, Price hung a curveball, and Jeter drilled it into the left field bleachers for a home run."

... and it was a pretty good rant as rants go. Even though I disagree with you.

2006 Prospectus Today by Joe Sheehan documenting the struggles of Bobby Crosby (who torpedoed my fantasy team that year).

Enjoyed the story and the video. But where's Dust Girl in this adventure?

oh my.

It's almost always about the kids. Especially with baseball.

You lost them at syllogism.

Nice, Ben. Keep up the excellent TAs. A phrase you might consider for the GM's role is Replacement Level Negligent Homicide after he creates the situation and idly watches as his team dies.

I paddled over to the swim-up bar one afternoon at a hotel in Hawaii in early October 2003, where I started watching a nighttime playoff game from the east coast. Required a double-take to conclude that it was a live broadcast. That's a far different story from the few years of my youth spent in Hong Kong, where the only baseball news I could get was from the US Military newspaper (Stars & Stripes) that my dad would bring home once a week. I'd read every recap and boxscore, and it was my only connection at all.

Do Burt Reynolds movies get a pass?

You don't think the porkchop sideburns make him look leaner, mattymatty? Other than that, I agree with you.

Thank you!

I can agree with this. If the rules were enforced, there would be fewer collisions.

I have reviewed all of the links above, with various video images and review of the rules. Posey wasn't blocking the plate without the ball. As I recall from last year, Carlos Santana had his entire left leg positioned on the third base side of the plate in an attempt to block it, long before the ball arrived. Posey did not. http://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?p=carlos+santana+injury&fr=my-myy&toggle=1&cop=&ei=UTF-8 [camera angle looking right up the third baseline] In the past, I have been an advocate for the runner to collide with catchers blocking the plate. I've changed my mind.

Thanks, Tom. Among all the snippets of wisdom you've revealed in your stint as ProGuestus, I'm most intrigued about your insight about women's shoes.

Get the bat off your shoulder. Your mileage may vary.

The truck stop 10 minutes from Wilmington was another missed opportunity. "[insert name], I'm going to be on the road for a few weeks scouting minor league baseball teams in the Carolina league. Can I call you when I get back to Brooklyn and take you to a Cyclones game?" You only get so many opportunities in life, as in baseball. Make the most of 'em.

2 of the 6 guys on this list are ridin' pine on my team. Yea!

I'm very happy to see the ProGuestus series bringing BP's subscribers the benefit of so many respected points of view under it's one roof. (Best idea since BP-Idol, Ben!) Thanks very much for fielding our questions, Tom. I'm looking forward to your answers. I appreciate your take on three questions, if you can do so without reavealing anything that your MLB employers would frown upon: 1) What sabermetric advancement do you think is the least-appreciated by a majority of franchises? 2) I like to flatter myself that I'm an 'early adopter' to the sabermetric perspective on the game, even though it's been so many years since its introduction and uptake by those like yourself. Is sabermetrics already 'mainstream' in your mind, or how long do you think it will be til it is? 3) What was / will be the tipping point to #2? Thanks in advance.

Thanks, Jay and Steven, for this series of articles. Good info for the fantasy baseball readership. This may have been covered elsewhere, and I missed it, but could somebody take a moment to explain Edwin Jackson? Have a great weekend!

I dunno, he seemed a bit winded afterwards. Four-base single. I like that.

The takeaway from this is that Moseley needs to learn to pitch to the score.

kismet

Might Fulchino's agent be the wiki author?

After today's repeat performance, I was wondering why he hadn't been more heralded...

Rocket surgery.

Celebrity guests, too!

"he's going to get a lot of curve balls

This is very neat stuff. Like MGL, I think you'd have to look on an individual player-by-player basis. And also pitch type. When the pitchers figure out Rookie X taps curve balls to the shortstop, he's going to get a lot of sliders - but the pitch location may not necessarily change. But, as you show, on a whole there is not a distinguishing difference in pitch location for rookies vs. established players. Thanks for publishing this here!

I remember my first typed report for school - on a typewriter - and about the same time I learned to program with punchcards as I was a fortunate kid in a summer class at the local college. Also, I remember using cassette tapes with my first home computer, before the 5.25" floppies gained popularity (who remembers playing computer games using casette tapes?). Thanks for the technical overhaul & the update. Keep up the good work!

What's better than watching a ballgame? Watching a ballgame and getting to listen in to what the BP folks are thinking about as the game unfolds. The live chats are always enjoyable - hope this could become a regular feature!

Nice TA, Ben. Lookin' forward to your take on the moves the rest of the season. Good luck to you in your new role as well as CK in hers.

I would venture to guess that the writer's are generally more pessimistic about the Yankees' starting pitching and Jeter's ability to field better than a traffic cone.

Small sample size alert: Play-by-play: NYY - Bottom of 7th Coke relieved Verlander Granderson homered to deep right

Anti-Yankees bias. No Yankee fans whatsoever on staff here at BP. ... haters...

The commission recognized that Joe Q. Viewer needed the extra time allotted to lean outta the Laz-E-Boy, reach into his Electrolix mini-fridge, and pop open his next big-mouth MegaBrew.

Dave, the lists at the bottom of the player pages that links back to BP articles has not been showing up in IE for me since this weekend. Not sure if it's just me. Rest of the cards look great.

I also read that the Nats are considering Werth batting in the #2 slot, to take advantage of his OBP in front of Zimmerman.

Thankfully, that info is listed under Rumors and Rumblings, and the official position agrees with you - the Depth Charts still have 100% of the catching duties split between Quintero and Towles.

seriously, if you're going to hit your goal, you gotta gotta gotta show a little tenderness!

But who is dismissing the narrative aspect of the game? Saberists like data. Data is not a narrative. Therefore, saberists dislike narratives. It's a false syllogism. But worse, the appeal to a "narrative" approach is a complete red herring. It's conceived by the story-tellers who refuse to acknowledge that they have fundamentally misunderstood the game they've watched and reported for so many years. They make this appeal to convince readers that saberists cannot tell a story, and therefore the metrics they have created can be ignored (and both can be banished to their parent's basements evermore). Balderdash. The writing on BP and other sites demonstrates that writers who understand today's advanced metrics can also wax poetic about the game. The game we all love. See also: Baseball ProGuestus series. Writers have to use the tools that they understand. Those with a facility for storytelling and an understanding of the underlying metrics of the game will tell grand stories with an underlying trust of the facts. Ken is aboslutely correct, above, that baseball writers who refuse to use the underlying metrics that have stronger correlations to game outcomes will soon find themselves out of readers and out of work. Evolve or risk finding themselves at the short side of the cladogram.

I'm missing the NYC event tonight, but still aspire to attend the P'ton event tomorrow. For any NYCers who wish to brave NJ Transit, here's your return schedule of trains, updated for the new schedule that went into effect last week. Princeton Junction to NY Penn Station leaves 8:45, arrives 10:02. leaves 9:22, arrives 10:39. leaves 10:04, arrives 11:25. leaves 11:16, arrives 12:41. leaves 12:01, arrives 1:22 (am). leaves 1:12, arrives 2:49. How late do these things run, anyway? (The Princeton Junction train station is all of 5 minutes away from the Marketfair Barnes & Noble in a cab. And, I'll take anybody who can fit in my car to the station, presuming I make it.) Looking forward to it!

This was a very nice read, Matt. I think flipping the perspective, as you suggest, makes a boatload more sense. Thank you.

So this is the actual and complete list, with credit to Jay and JAWS 1894-1909 John Clarkson (my own estimate... baseball-reference has him at 82 WAR) Not sure who would take over at his death in 1909, because I'm not as much of a baseball historian as I might be, but then I suggest... 1910 - Addie Joss (this is my own speculative selection, not based on published JAWS scores ... a short career, but excellent! 40 WAR in 9 seasons). 1911 - Cy Young, til he is supplanted in... 1927 - Walter Johnson, who passed away in... 1946 - Grover "Pete" Alexander, who passed away in... 1950 - Ed Walsh, who passed away in... 1959 - Lefty Grove, who holds the spot til superceded by... 1966 - Warren Spahn, who holds it til the retirement of... 1986 - Tom Seaver, though this is certainly debatable, as Tom Terrific holds nearly identical scores in Career & Peak as Spahn, with just 1.1 JAWS more, so one could argue that Spanh maintains the title til he passed away in '03 when Seaver would have inherited it and held it til the retirement of... 2007 - Roger Clemens. Greg Maddux retired in 2008 is the only other player above Seaver on the JAWS list, but he doesn't quite reach Clemens' total. But I'm sure that Clemens' claim to this title is similar to Bonds' to the 'best player' list...

"Johnson would still hold the title today." ... um... if he were still alive. So, give me a coupla minutes and I'll see who would hold the title when Walter passed away in '46...

Yeah, I understood... just bustin' on ya. As a way of apologizing, I did a little research. The list is potentially very short, because if we look at JAWS, for instance, Walter Johnson has the highest peak and highest career scores, and he retired in '27. There are only a handful who retired before him and have a claim. Grover "Pete" Alexander retired in '30 and holds the #2 spot, so he's out. Johnson would still hold the title today. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12611 Going in reverse chronological order, Cy Young is #3 on the list, retiring in 1911. [Roger Clemens is #4, and far short of Walter.] Matthewson is #5, retiring in '16, so he might give Young a run at the title from '16-'27, but I'd stick with Cy. Nobody who retired before Cy even makes this list. Addie Joss retired in '10, so he might claim the spot for a year. Before that, I dunno... I'll leave it for the next poster to opine.

That would be an interesting analog to this. However, I don't think Ruth would even enter into that conversation, since he was never the best pitcher in a season, much less over his short career...

And watch out if the Good Face player declares he's had the Best Shave of His Life.

That's too bad... would be lovely if there were a way to make that comparison. Would really drive home the point that QS is a better representation of the pitcher's performance than Ws. Excellent analysis nonetheless. Have a great weekend!

Thanks for the article, Jay! This is awesome, in fact. To help make the case, it's probably worth comparing Wins with the same rigor: From 1951 to 2010: ERA in Quality Starts: 1.90 ERA in all other Starts: 7.65 ERA in Starter Wins: ? ERA in other Starts: ? One would expect to find a much narrower difference. On a year-by-year basis, as in the chart at the end of the article, would one expect to find Wins shows more variance year to year?

Tracking the numbers in the daily boxscores for "Lynn" and "Rice" got me hooked on the Red Sox when I was in pre-school. I thought it was so funny that there were players named after a girl and a food. Freddie Lynn is still my favorite player to this day.

Inflation refers to the value of your auction dollar as the auction progresses. If you track how much is being spent (as the PFM will help you do), you can see how much money is left for the remaining talent. So, if some of the top players each were claimed for a few dollars less than expected, then the dollar value of the remaining players is determined in relation to how much money is left out amongst the bidders. Therefore, there price tag actually goes up compared to what you might have expected.

Great point! Yes, it would be interesting to look at demographics of population vs. demographics of game-attendance (& game-watchers on television). I doubt that latter information is publicly available, however.

Are you implying that the Joba rules didn't work? The rules were to keep him healthy - job well done!

My favorite: https://www.gfg.com/cardimg/390/94860.jpg Back in the day, they knew the value of getting on base well enough to put it on the back of a baseball card as part of being the best leadoff hitter...

I believe the proper etiquette when referring to yourself with this phrase is to add your own rejoinder, "And so do ours, apparently."

It enbiggens us all.

While the train ride down to P'ton during rush hour can be pretty quick if you're on an express train (about an hour), the return trip will be a local ride and will take much longer. Below are the return trains: - Leaves - P'ton :::: Arrives - Jnctn :::: NYC 09.20 pm :: 10:39 pm 10:04 pm :: 11:25 pm 11:16 pm :: 12:41 am 12:01 am :: 01:22 am 01:12 am :: 02:49 am [And if the event goes later than that... well, there are also hotels next door to Marketfair] For those NYCers who do wish to brave the train schedule listed above, I will volunteer to shuttle however many of you can fit into my car over to the station (in addition to KBarth).

Can sublime rhythm be too much of a good thing? Fuhgettaboudit.

Fair enough. Bad taste aversion is hard to overcome, but theoretically I should be able to overcome it rather than leave these guys as DTM. In fact, I was sort of expecting an answer like the one you gave above. Left undrafted long enough, every player can become a draft-day bargain - they simply have to drop low enough and the draft has to be deep enough. So, if these guys scared off al the owners due to their crappy 2010 results (even if their peripherals were okay), then may reach that point. So, what I need to figure out is, at what point do they become undervalued in a straight draft with my league settings? And, I can't expect you or anybody else to answer that for me - I haven't done enough research on average draft positions vs. PFM results and Normandin's rankings yet to come to my own conclusions.

Bill, Beckett and Shields sunk my 2010 season. Nolasco, too. Can you try and sell me on why I should pick them again this season, even if they drop to a mid-teen round (straight-draft format)? For specificity, HR-allowed is also one of my pitching stats. Thank you!

A very nice read! And now, I understand more than I did ten minutes ago. Thank you, professor!

I am surprised by Stanton leapfrogging Heyward, but I guess in fantasy leagues the HRs really make the difference. 2010 MLB Season Stanton: 396 PAs, .287 TAv (.326 OBP/.507 SLG) Heyward: 623 PAs, .304 TAv (.393 OBP/.456 SLG) ... and yet... 2011: ..PA/R/HR/RBI/Steals/Avg/Values Stanton 625 81 34 93 2 .248 $15 $19 Heyward 620 80 16 72 8 .276 $9 $18 So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if you're in an OBP league, or a league that uses Total Bases instead of HRs, then Heyward stands above Stanton.

I'm in that small minority, and I appreciate that they are separated. Part of the beauty of last year's use of a tier system is that you can lump them together with very little effort. For those of us who do play in leagues where they are separate, this is much more useful than trying to separate a combined list. You can also now use the PFM to sort/combine Marc's lists. All that said, however, I do think it would be nice if Marc would do a truncated combined list, listed in order of his own ranking. That way you can compare across positions to see if Jay Bruce or Matt Holiday would be the 4th highest outfielder, for instance.

I will head over to purchase my book tonight from the B&N in Marketfair, and I'll let the manager know I appreciate that they invited you for an event. Hopefully I can make it for the event as well - though weeknights are tough. On the chance that folks want to hang out after the event, there's a nice restaurant/bar a few steps away in the same mall (Big Fish).

MLB: One big government sanctioned unhappy commune.

Excellent article, Craig. I will put forward the idea that we (and that is not the royal "we," but the all-encompassing humanity) are creatures who live in the future. For instance, Friday at lunch, you're happy not because you're in the office with another half-day ahead of you. You're happy because you're thinking about what you're going to do over the weekend! Sunday night. You're bummed as the last football game ends not because your beer is empty, but because you're already thinking about what's waiting on your desk Monday morning. Human live in/for the future. In baseball, as in life, the anticipation is at least as captivating as the upcoming event. This may also explain why the hotstove is so much better more interesting than the actual season.

Larry, you misspelled November!

I believe this is the same problem people have using Internet Explorer, when they click "reply" to a comment and the site doesn't actually reply to the article. It's called "compatibility view." If you are having problems, try changing your "compatibility view." This should also make it so you can reply to comments in the comment-threads. I could be wrong, but it seemed to help for me just now...

Neat. If you plot location by organization, do Dave Duncan's hurlers show a 'low and away' pattern, or is that just me eyeballing things badly?

Running a baseball team is not brain surgery, but "Not doing anything stupid" is the first rule of the medical profession, so they have something in common at least...

Go ahead an minus this. Call me an apologist or whathaveyou. Go ahead, I can take it. The fact is, I've been (nicely) asking for the PECOTA and PFM for the past couple of weeks. Nobody "promised" you, me, or any other subscriber that everything would be up and running today. Not ten months ago, and not ten days ago. A week ago, they issued the PECOTA spreadsheet, and Colin told us that "the plan" was to have it out today. No promises, just letting us know "the plan." So, note to Colin and everybody else at BP: you can't win.

[raises hand] Then again, it's all about me.

That is part of the next issuance of the 2011 PECOTA that is coming out this week.

I am happy to be working in an industry where when something gets f'ed up, I can rest easy knowing the mistake probably didn't kill anybody.

I'd ask for your subscriber number, but it's not palindromic.

Rockin'!

It was mentioned in a different article on the site somewhere that the book is shipping from the distributor the week of the 14th (love is in the air... or rail/truck more likely). Feb 22nd is the date for the release, but you may find it sooner.

I admit that I saw NSFW in the teaser and thought it was another baseball acronym that I don't know.

I knew two people who wrote an extensive collection of "fan fic" on Hockey Players back in the mid-eighties. Not for print - just wrote the stuff. Not exactly 'slash' genre, however, since the player's adventures were heterosexual. Think "romance novel" kind of stuff.

Welcome, ProGuestus Prime. A very entertaining read. Fun stuff. And thank you, BP, for kicking off this column.

Even if I don't pick them up on draft day, I'm always looking to find one or two guys who may start out in AAA who I keep an eye on. I said it last year, and it may bear repeating... the most valuable piece of fantasy information that I can get in-season is some advance warning that one of these promising guys in AAA is about to get called up. (I got that info on Carlos Santana last year, and it worked out very well for me until the injury.) So for now, whether the guy starts in AAA or not, I like these articles as an added primer for my in-season 'watch list.'

If Martin regains his hitting stroke, then the move buys another year of seasoning for Montero in the minors. Yankees win. If Martin continues to struggle, they can always bring in Montero after he's likely to miss the Super-2 deadline. Martin's cost is sunk, but the investment is offset by the savings of deferring Montero's arbitration by a year. So, the Yankees don't exactly win, but they aren't completely losing out either since Martin's 'only' sinks them a few million.

Bem, nice little article! Definitely worth the extra word-count vs. a chat-length response. I like the idea of seeing how this plays out for some of the youngsters who missed your years/PA threshold. Also, it might be interesting to see who the best non-5s are at each position, and what specifically holds them back from being a 5-tool. I'd also be interested to see a thorough analysis of 'ace,' with input/opinion from a whole bunch of the BP authors. How do each of you define it, and who makes the cut by that definition.

The Promise was for Monday, or sooner if they are able to get it pulled together quickly enough...

Noooo.... that would have been filmed on the 24th before the game. But then the TV broadcast that leads into the scene in Wrigley is an acutal game on the fifth, with play by play. In that game a foul ball was actually hit into left field. So, Ferris caught a foul ball from that game on the fifth, even though they were filming the shots on the 24th.

Courtesy of wiki: In the original Doom Patrol series, The Brain was regularly portrayed as a disembodied brain, bobbing inside a sealed dome filled with a nutrient bath, hooked up with numerous machines, including a loudspeaker to convey his voice.

As an aside, if you tell us where you're (likely) having an event in NYC or Princeton, I will make a point of going to *that* store to buy my copy of the Annual. Every year. Regardless of whether I can go to the actual event.

Sweet! I believe this needs a Wiki entry.

If the schedule worked out so I could attend (weekend?), then Princeton would be much more convenient for me than Edison would. If it's on a weeknight, then NYC preferred, generally.

I'll do my best to attend an event this year, whether in NYC or central NJ. Happy to toast in another season with all ya'll.

A .260 TAV and 2 FRAA in centerfield, over 375 PAs ain't going to set the world afire, sure. But 1.1 WARP isn't exactly setting the world afire either. It's basically saying he can hold is own against a 4A center fielder. You think it's over-estimating his capacity to field the ball?

Good stuff, Tommy. Is the list at the bottom their career BRR/Opps? I'm assuming it's single season based on the text above, but the chart's not clear in that regard. Who would have the best career baserunning rate?

I will be very interested to see where PECOTA pegs him, even though there is no way I'm drafting him ... unless he drops to like the 29th round of my draft, at which point I might take him as a 4th outfielder.

Nick Markakis. Drafted him in 2009: one hot month, one long season of misery. Luckily I had the depth to bench him as the summer dragged on. Nevertheless, I missed winning my league by *that* much, and the blame rests squarely on his shoulders. DTM.

... and unless I've missed an announcement, we're still shy 2011 PECOTAs. Shouldn't those be coming out soon for fantasy players? Beta? The spreadsheet at the very least? I love BP and thank you all for your efforts!

Thanks, Ken. Lots of fun. Speaking of 5-Down, ummm... Kevin, Christina, and others, any time now for 2011 would be appreciated. As Jason Collette points out in his Unfiltered post, things are getting serious now for fantasy prep. Thank you!

With regard to Rivera and Napoli, will they be Type A free agents at the end of the 2011 season (Rivera) or beyond (Napoli)? If so, in addition to the salary benefits, do I understand that the Jays have the possibility of additional draft picks?

So jealous! Sign me up for the next one!

Agreed re: the Bradbury piece. Interesting research, bad conclusions because he over-reached given his experimental design. What I meant regarding the publication of that piece was that Kevin (I think it was Kevin) had indicated that there would be the first of many "outside" sabermetric pieces to get included at BP, though no others stand out in my mind at this time (though I'm also open to the possibility that they were there and I just don't remember them.)

I'm also reminded of the article BP posted last year with research (by Bradbury, if I remember correctly, where he posited a peak year much later than others have demonstrated, but he had a sample-bias where he was limited his sample to players who would qualify for the Hall of Fame). At any rate, publishing the article was hailed as a leaf-turning moment, and we were led to believe that more of this kind of work would be featured at BP. Whether or not there was follow through on that aspiration last year, this could be an extention of it now...

I remember the links that Tommy would put up with the one sentence blurbs. To be honest, that was rarely enough of a hook to get me to click through (though I did from time to time). I'd suggest that BP reach out to a few of the other sites and see if they would be interested in cross-posting to BP for a "best of" series. Each site would agree to submit a couple paragraphs as a hook to an article, with a link to the rest of the article. All topics would be fair game. Perhaps, in exchange, the other sites would do the same for one "best of" BP article. If it's pay-only content, perhaps they publish the whole article, for discussion at their site. I know I would certainly be interested in that, especially since BP no longer adds new content on the weekends. Obviously, this only works if other sites are interested, or if they are interested in cross-publishing a link to a BP article. Please take it under consideration. Thanks!

Very nice article! Thanks for sharing. Makes me wish there was more cross-posting among the leading sites.

Agreed. My league uses OBP instead of AVG, and Total Bases instead of HRs. It's fantastic when fantasy analysis includes these differences from standard 5x5, because that can make the difference in my competitive league (which I've never won, because others use BP, too)...

I agree completely. I suppose I should have said, "Steinbrenner Siblings" but I prefer the ring of "Cashman & Co" regardless of whether the decision originated in Tampa. I suspect that fungibility of relievers does still exist, as much as it ever has. Given enough opportunities (ie sample size), if a guy can get batters out in the 7th, he can do it in the 9th. And, just to expound on the point, the reverse is also true. If a guy in today's game is 'closing' in the ninth, then he damn well can come into the game in the 7th with the game on the line in the playoffs (note to Girardi). Get your best guy in to put out the fire. Can we create and publicize a new LEV-based award (i.e. "Fireman" or "Rally-killer"), and publicize it? The guy who pitches in the highest LEV situations outside the 9th inning wins the award. How can we see that LEV leaderboard with the sortable stats?

Colin, another kick-ass article. I also think that Cashman & Co. have already come to the same conclusion, as they are now paying their closer the same amount as their best set up guy. Good job, Yankees!

What makes you think the Royals are not already "at the point" where they have to worry about overpaying to attract Free Agent talent - at least talent worth having? They've been studiously sharpening that point for several years, going back at least as far as, I don't know... Jose Guillen in 2008 (3yrs/$36m). Or maybe Meche in '07 (5yrs/$54.6m). With an equally sharpened point, they've been spending their sheckles on declining veterans who are just hoping to earn some extra spending money for their retirement (or resurrect their careers). Like 36-year old Jason Kendall last year (2yrs/$6m), or 32 year old Mientkewicz in 2006 ($1.8m), or 36 year old Matt Stairs in '04 (3yrs/$3.55m). Okay... after going back and looking at all of those bad contracts, it occurred to me that you probably meant that they "don't need to worry" because they won't be in contention for a couple years, and thus they will have no need to sign anybody worth having. Was this what you meant?

Evidenced by reaching 600 plate appearances in just 4 seasons.

I loved watching Lynn as a kid - favorite player hands down. And he would have some old-school metrics in his favor, such as being the only player (other than Ichiro) to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season. And, if I remember correctly, he hit four home runs in All*Star games during his career. I mean, you have got to be kidding!!! Who does that and doesn't get in the Hall? Also, I've heard him as an announcer on tv broadcasts for more than one west coast game (can't remember who the broadcaster was), and I thought he was very good at it. Would love to see him replace Joe Morgan (...when Joe is ready to retire...). But all that said, his career totals fall way short of HoF criteria due to his injuries. And, I believe there was a perception in the media that he wouldn't tough it out and play when he was less than 100%. I think that perception hurt his case as much as anything else...

One million pluses! Legal action by the accused baseball player is a must-lose scenario for him. 1) More people will read about your lawsuit than they will read the writer's false accusations in the book; 2) The public will continue to hear your name linked to PEDs for months/years as the lawsuit goes through its various stages; 3) 99.99% chance that you lose the lawsuit, which means that after months of publicity linking your own name to PEDs, the public will now believe your link to PEDs is confirmed by a court of law. As much as it must gall these players to sit on their hands, it's really the only good option they've got.

Fascinating read, Eric, thanks. So, did you check to see whether the Jock Tax did have an effect on Lee's three publicized offers? Or, if an accurate accounting is to be found elsewhere, can you provide a link?

yes, please