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Computer models don't agree on hurricane tracks. I guess we should stop using them until we know more.
It was 1988, I was playing Strato, I had the Reds and was playing the Blue jays. I was losing 11-1 going into the bottom of the ninth. When I won, The other guy tore the cards up. Rightfully so I might add.
I have a son named Jake. Jake McGee seemed like a reasonable guy to draft for holds. I drafted him in 3 leagues. If anybody has a player that they wish for me to curse, let me know. For a small fee, I will trade for them.
This feature is off to an awesome start. I expect 26 more weeks of excellent snark.
Jason P., why would you even bother trying pizza elsewhere after having Bushwick's best? And the baseball writing was great, BTW.
And Rice had quite the debut today.
which is a nightmare I'd rather not relive.
Or if you have a team with a sketchy 5th starter, have your setup guy pitch the 1st inning against the opponents best hitters. Your starter then has a shot at giving you 6 innings without having to face the top of the lineup 3 times.
The Dodgers could modify this a bit; use Kershaw every fifth day and use their other 7 starters the other 4 days. Then turn things over to Belisario, Jansen and League. It's not elegant, but it "could" work.
What about Bautista/Encarnacion/Reyes? I'd say their production has a chance to top the Angels trio.
I'd like to find out what the Yankees record is going into the 9th in a save situation over the Rivera era compared to other teams. Then we'd have a better idea just how monumental the task of replacing is.
I too have yearned for standard deviation of game score data.
Giant tongue? Now I have to look!
Better yet, instead, put the translations into PECOTA and watch the fun ensue...
What are the odds that this year he becomes the all-time WARP leader for Trout(s)... Steve had 10.2
A bit more than 20 years ago, a guy in my league snagged one real good SP, 2 closers, ...and 6 1$ middle relievers. He spent his money wisely on offense and ran away with the league. Of course, since then there has been a minimum innings rule.
What Bill James said re lefty relievers makes me wonder for the nth time why teams, if facing a lineup with alternating handed batters, don't alternate pitchers by sticking one at 1B or RF. I'm pretty sure LaSorda did this a few times in the 80s, don't know that I've seen it since. I suppose someone could determine whether what you give up in defense outweighs the platoon advantage you could gain plus the fact that you could be avoiding going deeper into your bullpen.
So the Rangers need a backup SS? I guess that Profar kid was a bust.
Cardinals over, Dodgers and Astros under. Wish I could find another over that jumps out at me.
I went to college in Salem 79-83 and Edmead was a legend in town by then. Frankly, I am surprised to learn he wasn't the 1 in a generation talent I heard about. I am guessing that it is a bit rarer for 18 year olds to post similar numbers in A ball these days
Mets win the Division? That's unpossible!
If we couch our analysis as, "This move does not make sense to me because..." it's a useful and entertaining exercise.
Well, if one includes greenies as well as steroids, a possible explanation for the falling productivity of "elderly" players presents itself.
I feel silly for never having wondered about this before, but when does the loss of the the first round pick attached to Lohse expire? In other words, if nobody feels he's worth that cost, is he stuck in baseball purgatory endlessly, unless the Cardinals make an offer?
So, both teams win, leaving the losers of the trade to be, apparently, the Dodgers.
I'd be curious to learn the cumulative slash stats of the guys who followed Bonds those 688 times.
The list of guys with more steals after 28 is miiiighty short indeed.
Indeed, the Dodgers seem to be modeling themselves after the Redskins of a few years ago. I expect similar results.
So, the one guy in America who wouldn't want to own the Yankees owns the Yankees? What a world.
Is the # of SB attempts consistent over time? I am under the impression that teams are attempting less often than in the past. If so, perhaps they are eschewing attempts when they calculate the odds are less in their favor.
Which they showed by winning 116 games in the regular season! Oh, wait...
So, of course, I want to know historically, what are the odds of the team that won game one going on to win a series? I'm to lazy to look it up.
Was it just me or was Pettitte getting calls on borderline pitches that Fister was not?
This is way better than reading the yahoo recap. I was unable to actually watch the game, as between my 2 kids , they have 5 tests tomorrow, and if I had turned on the telly, I would have been disembowelled by a very serious mother hen. I thank you for filling me in so well.
I was really hoping announcers would mention that maybe, just maybe, Melvin wanted his best arm to face Tigers' best hitters in bottom of ninth. But no, it was all about the risk he took having his closer in in a tie game.
I don't remember ever seeing an infield fly called on a ball that deep, and I know I've never seen one called that late.
I'm wondering if Saunders' only giving up 4 dings in 44 innings was the deciding factor in getting him the start in Arlington.
Speaking of Draft rounds...Brandon Beachy, anyone?
Yep. I lean toward the Royals-who had a similar trajectory this season- to outperform the Brewers in '13
I'm curious to know if there is a significant difference in BABIP between lefties and righties. Especially slow ones.
I think the Red Sox/Dodgers financial data might need tweaking.
RA Dickey. 2012, RHH. It's a thing of beauty.
I play softball with a one legged clown. He hit a triple last week. He could probably hit clean up for the Dodgers sans Kemp and Ethier.
I'm hoping he pitches when I see the M's in KC on the 16th, so I can tell my son- a Mets fan- the story. What's next, Lastings Milledge making a comeback?
The most interesting tidbit in this story is the factoid that there are 2 first basemen less useful that James Loney. That is hard to fathom.
When I saw the name Mark Prior, I had of vision of Alec Guinness saying to Mark Hamilton, "Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long,long time"
Having watched Hamilton video a few times, the remarkable thing to me is that he doesn't look otherwordly fast. It looks like a guy running normally, who just happens to get to the bag before just about every throw.
You missed Joe Charbonneau. ROY at 25 in 1980,combined 640 OPS at AA/AAA in 82 at the age of 27.
Wonderful piece of writing.
Just exactly what would Wily Mo Pena have to have done to get acknowledged by BP?
I can't wrap my mind around the fact that DE is lower now than in the past. It goes against everything I've ever heard.
It cannot be emphasized enough that these kinds of teams are so much better to watch in person than on the tube. I can't imagine spending 3 hours watching a Mariners-Royals game on TV, but would enjoy every pitch if at the stadium.
Being another Dodger fan, I would be interested to see how the Dodgers' first basemen's cumulative WARP for the last 13 years stacks up against Konerko's. Then again, maybe I don't.
Why don't the Mets trade Wright and move Murphy to third?
What have you been doing, spending the entire off season musing about this? Seriously, though, all good points.
Did you forget Jeter, or is he really not one of the top ten SSs over the last 4 years? Both possibilities seem unpossible.
This article turned my year's subscription from a good deal into a great deal. As they say, strange is truer than fiction.
I can see the Dodgers signing Fielder, the brewers signing Loney for pennies,....and Loney outplaying Fielder.
I have not seen this pointed out anywhere else, but in all 4 division series matchups, the team that won the series was outscored by the loser. Pythagorus is spinning in his grave.
Here I was, daydreaming about how nice it would be to see Fielder in Dodger Blue, and you go and dash cold water on my plan. Thanks a lot.
It seems like every top shortstop becomes injury plagued. Makes one appreciate Jeter, no matter how hard one tries not to.
Any plans to tally up how many players show up on these lists from each organization? It seems to me that future Dodgers were few and far between...
How can you keep Oswaldo Arcia and Ariel Ovando straight? I'm confused already.
Um, I mean Edmonds... must need coffee or something.
Gaze into your crystal ball: Will Trout have a better career than Jim Edwards? Is there a better comp that comes to mind?
I suppose you also rant against the lowering of the mound, which is only a wee tiny bit older than the DH. I'm not a big fan of the DH myself, but it's time accept that it's here to stay.
Jason Kendall's career in jeopardy.... somewhere in there lies a joke.
The most brilliant part is moving the Astros, which eliminates the disparity between the leagues in one fell swoop.
Just wondering what the Angels' winning pct. was for games started by Napoli/Mathis during those 4 years. 7 whether any difference is significant.
There seems to be no scenario in which the Mets can receive equal value- in terms of baseball ability for Reyes. the impetus for the trade is purely financial. That a team in New York is so mismanaged as to have to run a shoestring operation is in no way the players' fault.
7 years? who are you, Blutarsky?
Just kidding. I have 2 sons. The 13 yaer old got turned off to team sports at about 8 by the ultracompetitivenes, but talks about starting track. My 10 year old loves to shoot hoops, but won't actually play. Video games are a factor with the older one, but not at all with the younger one.
After looking it up, I'm sad I don't remember-Yount, Molitor, and Ripken all homered. Not too often can you see 3 HOFers do that in one night. Must have been the Schaefer(s)
Don't ask me what happened in the game I did see, but I always remember the next night Nieves threw the NoNo. And if you had asked, I would have guessed that it was late May/early June, after school was out.
Funny, I don't recall the Red Sox running away with the division last year...
I swear, I've had these guys on my fantasy teams about 10 times over the years. Throw in Elijah Dukes and you have the Four Horsemen of 8th place.
As a Dodgers' fan
I find this list depressing
But it could be worse
How many guys fell out of the top 100 rather than "graduating"
to the bigs?
Nolasco will have his career year just as soon as I stop drafting him...
On what basis did you separate Cahill and Anderson? They seem pretty indistinguishable to me
I loved this, partly because when my dogs woke me up at 4 AM today, I was doing Fantasy research and was pondering both Crisp and Crawford.
Well, nothing in here will help my fantasy team....I think.... but I was entertained and will have something to talk about at the draft. Put me down in the "thumbs up" column
I refuse to shop at Walmart. All my leftover hex wrenches are from IKEA.
Why have they consistently underperformed? Because I consistently draft them in fantasy league. Easy peezy.
Wow! 2 top prospects named Matt Dominguez, both from the same school! Oh, wait, the one on the Royals usually spells his name a different way.
Micah Owings to the Astros. Priceless comment.
John Maine wasn't from Maine? Who knew?
Easy. Sign Renteria, he's clutch!
Here in NY, I keep hearing-from the media-that the most important qualification for a Mets' manager is Media Relations, followed by being fiery and getting fans excited. Somewhat further down on the list are qualities that could be explored by the questions here.
Hard to believe the 88 Dodgers don't make the "weak winners" list. Their starting 8 made the 2010 Giants look like murderers row.
If you subtract the RFers, the offenses are actually pretty even.
What happens in the AL if both the Yankees and Rays lose and the Twins win? Who gets home field?
Who cares about this? what I want to know is, who should I pick up for my fantasy team , Sanchez or Chacin?
In actuality, this is great work. Just depressing that the Dodgers aren't around to embiggen the fun.
Joe Morgan, 40 nitwit statements in 1 broadcast...
Good time to be a Reds fan.
I'm wondering if the Red Sox have inquired into Mr. Dunn of late...
In a perfect world, Wallace will soon get traded for Edwin Jackson
I've nothing against doubleheaders, and I hate freezing weather postseason ball, but the real issue here is the absurd number of postseason off days to accommodate TV.
And yet, the Halos are floundering...
Scherzer, Haren, Shields, and Nolasco here. Compounded by my first 2 picks being Fielder/ Sizemore. Can't wait for football .
I for one feel very sorry for the Orioles.
Mets announcers have mentioned several times how surprisingly good Bay is on the basepaths. I'm no expert, but I say that for a 30ish corner OF. he looks like he can motor. It is no surprise to see Gardner on top of the individual list, that guy can flat out fly.
Speaking of Werth, remind me again-what did the Dodgers get for him?
Cause they're the Royals?
I would be very interested...and not just because I dropped Jay Bruce for Francouer last week. I knew I would be the kiss of death for Frenchy, but I had no idea I would ignite Bruce as well.
Chris Tillman will be one busy hombre, seeing as how he is pitching for both Norfolk and Oklahoma City...
On the list of reasons why I want to get my pitchfork, tar, feathers, etc., this doesn't make the top 10, but as an NYC taxpayer it does get me very PO'd when I think about the fact that I am subsidizing billionaires. How about they start giving Police Officers, Firefighters, Teachers,etc. discounted tickets-and not in the corner of the upper deck, either?
Nice dream , huh?
All right, after mulling it over way to long, I picked up Rodriguez. Had to drop DeRosa to do it. Here's hoping.
Is it safe to assume that Burrell is 100%?
Hard to believe the Yankees, with all their resources , could be this low.
I will be shocked if Roberts gets 45 steals.
Is there a formula that predicts the relationship between the # of baserunners and the % that score?
On the other hand, Charlie M.'s projected lineup has to gladden you.
I swear, given the level of frustration Mets fans are voicing with Omar, they should give him a First baseman's glove and sign him. How bad could he be defensively?
Murphy and Tatis...that's about as appealling as leftover Brussell Sprouts...just wondering, could Johhny Damon play first by any chance?
I am amazed that "park effect" never appears in this article.
Forget the cortisone argument. Greenies. Illegal,dangerous, yet, as you say, "rampant in the 70s" Where's the media outrage to get Schmidt, etc. tossed from the Hall and the Record Book?
16.667 million simolians
Opponents OPS 2009... Burnett .765, Lackey .755
Opponents OPS 2008 ...Burnett .762, Lackey .766
I don't buy your theory.
If you see Omar Minaya, ask him when he going to retire. Emphasize the long working hours and the constant media critcism.
The 1983 Lynchburg Mets, who had Dykstra and Doc Gooden, and were ungodly good.
Refresh my memory- where did this system rank last year?
OTOH, Overbay to the Mets is completely believable.
Oh God, no. Please, don't start the Andy in the Hall conversation again. I beg you.
OK, I guess it's time for some data on what % of bunt attempts go foul, so we can properly analyse the follies/brilliance of 2 strike bunting. Given what MLers hit with 2 strikes, I can't believe it's such a horrible play.
I forget the inning, but there was an instance when Rollins came up with a man on second, & when it got to 2 strikes, I was thinking a bunt could work there, with the element of surprise and all. As it happened, he whiffed on a nasty curve, so a bunt probably would have been unsuccesful. Anyway, I remember several times Lasorda used the 2 strike bunt successfully, and I don't think its such a bad play.
Could someone actually go back and time the conference? Cause it seemed like 30 seconds to me. I highly doubt it was anything like 5 minutes.
Heard on NY radio this AM: Complaints about the conference, because they hadn't done that yet in the playoffs. The host is saying, "But they got it right!" and the caller is wingeing that it's not fair to get the call right....It reminded me why I find it so easy to hate the Yankees-so many of their fans feel entitled.
All this numerical analysis is well and good, but you've forgooten that the Phillies have more swagger, and thus, must be expected to win.
Any data on the flip side of this? How the teams stack on preventing extra bases, steals, etc.?
Any chance you can either conduct-or point me in the direction of a previosly conducted study- re any correlation between season series results and playoff results? I see a bit of noise about the Cards 5-2 record against the Dodgers and wonder if it means anything.
Ah, I see you belong to the "Of course he's guilty-why else would the cops have arrested him" school of jurisprudence.
You sure you were not just comparing him to Nolan? I don't remember Tanana being that out of the ordinary.
I will always remember Tanana for a great quote from about '77- when asked how he would celebrate his birthday(after pitching a gem) he replied, "I'll probably get stoned" Tongue in cheek, I'm sure...
Next year Tim will tell us: Catchers improve during the game more than players at other positions because catchers are more adept at tuning in on the pitcher's stuff that day...
Or something like that.
The mets are the Redskins of MLB. Same philosphy, same SOP, same results. But hey, they both make a ton of money, so why not keep at it?
Oh, come on. Let us Dodger fans savor this one championship-if it holds-cause we sure as hell are not going to get the real deal.
Okay, I'm puzzled. The Angels are a high OBP, average HR team, and they blow away pythag annually. Is it all bullpen and baserunning?
I have to say, I was surprised at how cheap Lee went, and even more so at the Alderson deal. As a Dodger fan, I am happy that the deal -in my mind- won't be of significant help in the short term, and won't be any help in the long run. OTOH, the Phillies and Cardinals both should be easily favored over the Dodgers in a short series.
He's the Sarah Palin of baseball.
There is an anthology of the best Amereican sports writing every year. This piece belongs in the 2009 edition. Superb on so many levels: insightful, passionate, humerous... Just a great job.
Common theme? I drafted them all...
Hey, I could have thought up the Austin Kearns comment. Come to think of it, so could my 9 year old. Maybe even my dog.
Could we skip the no-brainers next week?
Excellent analysis. It makes me think the way to go is to take Wells with Halladay for some decnt prospects, as the positive impact of Doc would offset the hit of Wells.
What I can't figure out is why the Rays are not in the running. I think Halladay would help them more than anyone.
On the other hand, high save totals would lead to demands for higher salaries.
Coinciding perfectly with the day I picked him up on a fantasy team....
I'm not so sure speed peaks at 21. Does Olympic -or other Track and Field- data back this up?
Yep. My first thought was how to measure Smith not scoring when he "should" have.
Just how is it cheating if the substance in question had not yet been made illegal?
I've been asking that question for years now.
This will be a real test for the Nats brain trust. can they sign him for big bucks, then intelligently monitor his workload for 5 years or so? It's gotta be hard to be paying a guy bazillions and only pitch him 150 innings or so.
Fine, sign Ibanez instead. But there goes the excuse to pop a cold one.
Quick fix: build (or obtain) time machine. Go back 6 months, sign Lowe and Manny. Return to present. Pop a cold one, bide time until Manny's back. Cruise therafter.
Well, not quite. Traded mid-season, started a WS game, left with an injury afetr going 1.1 innings. Answer to a different trivia question: Who is the only starting pitcher to be pulled from a WS game while throwing a no-hitter?
Just a guess... John Tudor?
I would have liked a mention of a Mallard alumni or 2.
I've been told that even comparing him to a God invites glares in Baltimore.
I wonder if that "old Phillies GM" was the guy who in threw Ryne Sandberg to complete a deal...
How about longest streaks without a K for the Adam Dunns of the world?
So, when does Texas jump in with an offer for Peavy? It has always seemed to me to be the logical destination.
Obviously I have not been paying enough attention, but how the heck do the Yankees have a first round pick, in light of their 3 big signings?
How Phillips ever advanced beyond ticket taker is quite the mystery.
I'm pretty sure Lasorda threw a pitcher out in RF at least once. I want to say it was Valenzuela, but I have a hard time imagining how that could be. I have pondered a few times why teams don't do this. I think the chance of a defensive gaffe are outweighed by the split advantage + the advantageof just using your 2 best relievers.
Burning question: How far back do you have to go to find a Yankees team last in MLB in ERA this late in a season?
Tell me about it. I have Drew, Upton, Jackson, and Young on a fantasy team.
Re entitlement: Yet the Yankees and Mets are entitled to taxpayer subsidized stadia...
Thanks for the splash of cold water. I picked up Millwood for Kuroda the other day...
Expect Dukes to go on a rampage, as I dropped him off a fantasy team 11 minutes before the Nats sent down Milledge...
Speaking of the DL, when will Joey Devine go on it? what's the story there?
I can believe it all, except for the Padres ahead of the Rockies.
Every time I see something like this I curse the name of Delino Deshields.
Why not finish up where it all began? Chavez Ravine would be perfect.
Ummm...maybe when they borrowed 600 million from the public coffers to build their castle that only plutocrats can afford-and that after writing off the cost of the tickets?
Am I the only one who fails to see why steroids are such a huge issue when the fact that illegal amphetimines were widely used is ignored? I just don\'t see why, other than steroids are a media whipping boy, McGuire will be denied Cooperstown, when numerous heroes of the 60s, 70s, and 80s were just as juiced, albeit on different chemicals.
Speaking of PECOTA, for years I\'ve wanted a brief article in the Prospectus on the best and worst predictions from the previous years\' edition, plus some dat on players who have been consistently nailed and those who have been consistently whiffed on. I like having 4 years\' editions all lined up and browse through a career progression of comps, predictions, and results- but it can get tedious.
Did 1 bad season really cause Chin-lung Hu to disappear from the list? Is he no longer a prospect by virtue of ML time? I can\'t believe he sunk so low otherwise.
I would think that Hamel\'s workload tonight factors into the decision. If they have a big lead-God forbid-after 6 innings, does Manuel pull him to keep him fresher for game 4? Or does he ignore future considerations and just play 1 game at a time. for the answers to theses and other questions, stay tuned.
Not that they\'re going to get there, but the Rays aren\'t exactly experienced...
I stayed up way past my bedtime to watch Morrow. Came away very impressed. Love his delivery, can\'t think of who it reminds me of.
It seems to me the Dodgers are the textbook case for going for short term gains at the expense of long term positioning. If they do catch the Dbacks, it\'s going to inspire even more teams to adopt the strategy.