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David Hernandez was terrible in the rotation and dynamite out of the pen. This projection looks like it has no idea he's a full-time reliever (and a really good one). Does PECOTA not account for SP/RP splits?
It really is amazing that Soria is projected to have the highest WARP amongst all Royals pitchers.
Is there another team with a similar situation?
I'm coming to grips with Nick Markakis: Solid player.
Thanks Colin-- Why is Brandon Belt's WARP negative?
Agreed. It'd be nice to see this exact point addressed. I, too, remember the way Adam Jones' comparables were flaunted and it was never qualified the way Colin just did.
Thanks Marc (and Jay).
I guess my general sentiment is that I would be surprised if the Red Sox can build a package for AGon that does not include Kelly and/or (but especially 'and') Iglesias that the Rays/White Sox/Jays/etc. would not readily top.
The Red Sox have a lot of depth, but I'd be surprised if another team wouldn't part with prospects with much higher ceilings than those listed above for AGon, even if it's for one year (plus picks).
I think that trade offer is very lopsided. Ellsbury maxes out as a solid regular and kalish, lowrie, and rizzo might not even be that.
Under 2B, you write: "Again, I don’t see any names here that give me major pause."
By most accounts I've read, Luis Castillo has regressed to well below average in the field and Eric Young is not long for the position.
Just curious if you've heard different, because these numbers did give me pause.
Pagan is the third best player on the Mets over the past two seasons by WARP. Marginalizing him for the likes of Juan Rivera or Ryan Ludwick seems counterproductive.
I doubt the O's would go after a guy who is just going to test free agency in a year.
After looking at Rickey Henderson's card, I wouldn't find RATE, RATE2, or RATE3 anywhere. Is this because of the new defensive metric pending?
There seems to be something very off about the GB%, the chart, and how GB% is projected over the next several years. Look no further than the O's Britton, Bergesen, and Arrieta for examples,
Sorry to point out something that doesn't look right. I'm really excited about the other 99% of it.
Count Z Britton as a LHP
I think the K bar on the graph is inverted. Or isn;t inverted, and it should be.
Nice line TB.
But seriously, who are these people rating pbc's comments as negative? Even if you disagree, they're well thought-out and argued effectively. BP readers are so temperamental.
his babip is projected to be lower. The net effect is he is projected to allow fewer runs in the sam amount of innings.
change in ballparks
who are you talking about?
Chapman over Matusz for top LHP prospect? I understand the ceiling/polish debate, but the difference b/t polish seems a lot greater than the difference in ceiling.
Fun article (and I love your stuff Jay), but...
"Had the Rangers managed a mere 3.0 WARP from this duo rather than -3.2, they'd have won 93 games, just two less than the wild card-winning Red Sox."
What an absurdly bizarre and arbitrary point to make. Why use a figure that stops short of them winning the wild card to make your point?
Let me re-write it:
"Had the Rangers managed to paint their stadium with a menacing frowny face on the outside rather than not doing so, they'd have still won 87 games, just eight less than the wild card-winning Red Sox."
George Sherrill brought back a B+/A- upper level 3B prospect and a B- RHP. Bell has one less year of arb eligibility, but all those pretty saves... I'd expect similar value.
"Even with last year's slump, it's harder to find someone like JJ Hardy than someone like Gomez."
If that isn't the understatement of the year. I get that Gomez is young and everything, but what are the chances he has more career value than, say, Corey Patterson? 10%? 15%? Certainly, it''s not better than a coin flip.
To me, the worst part is that if the Brewers were intent on going in this direction, why not look to Felix Pie? At least he has shown *some* signs of life with a bat in his hands and he's available on a team that badly needs Hardy. I'd still rather have Hardy than Pie, but is there a person alive that would prefer Gomez to Pie?
you missed something. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7704/splits;_ylt=Aq.bAq4.uDkOPnilKPnOuwWFCLcF
I disagree. David certainly didn't mess around, but aren't these the exact questions readers here want answered? I think it's completely fair (refreshing, actually) to ask him to address the criticisms most-oft associated with him in our nerdiverse.
Ah, much clearer. On the back of the O-Cab TA, I was in a rush to judge you as a Pennington apologist. Crapshootery, indeed.
CK- I've picked up on a certain affinity for Cliff Pennington in your writings. Can I ask.... why?
If he's anything more than an average 5th infielder in the long run, I imagine people a lot smarter than me will be surprised, so I'm just wondering why you use him as a reference point as to what the Marlins *should* have received with Thompson's slot in the draft.
Any secret insight I'm missing?
November is normally the month that Brian Matusz uses to travel around and personally show up at the house of everyone that reads the minor league update feature on baseball prospectus. So you'll probably see him then.
Wieters has "best player in baseball" potential. I'm going to guess the answer is no. Why must all comparisons be hyperbole?
I'm eating a King Crab Roll and they gave me a weird lemony sauce and no soy sauce. Am I supposed to use this *and* soy sauce or just the lemony sauce. If it's the latter, this is simply not going to cut it.
In context, the statement makes sense. The O\'s have a lot of youngish guys with some upside trying to establish themselves in the show. Albers and Patton are just two of these guys.
\"If in the first four rounds of the draft 70% of pitchers over 6\'3\" make it, but that number drops to 40% for pitchers over 5\'11\", that would be telling data, particularly as the pitchers taken in similar rounds will carry similar expectations. \"
I have to disagree. The qualifier of *in the first four rounds* means you have just introduced a new variable. One might hypothesize that shorter pitchers have trouble getting drafted early, due to a lack of projection. That could certainly impact the results beyond a simple \"Tall pitchers succeed/fail more often\" type of conclusion based on that data set. All it would tell us is that tall/short pitchers drafted early succeed/fail at a higher rate. That could just end up telling us, for instance, that clubs are bad at identifying which short pitchers to draft early.
Again, I think answering a question on ideal body type is pretty impossible given the data to work with and the amount of noise you\'re going to get with all the variables everyone has come up with.
The better approach is to quantify pitch velo/movment with pitchfx, find a simple way to quantify release point (mlb.tv pixels?), and arm speed (you could probably use max velocity as a proxy for now) and run some multivariate testing within each body type group.
You wouldn\'t find an ideal body type, but you might find some pitching styles that are more likely to be successful within each group. For instance, you might find that over-the-top deliveries are more successful as player height increases (just speculating).
The more I think about this, the more this kind of study seems feasible.
There are two major faults with trying to ascribe any meaning to this data:
1) Listed height/weight for professional athletes is notoriously inaccurate. You say that no pitcher listed at 5-10 has made a start this year. Well, I\'ve stood next to Radhames Liz and he\'s about as 5-10 as it gets. Unfortunately, the O\'s list him at 6-0 or 6-1 or something.
2) As others have mentioned, there is a selection bias to the data. Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia are at the extremes and they both are in the data pool because of their exceptional talent. Their talent led them to be put on the mound as children, they would\'ve had extra chances because they had large signing bonuses (not that they needed them), etc. How many other 5-11 or 300 lb guys can we say that about?
So what do I suggest?
Well, there\'s nothing we can do about these faults in the data points, but we can try to get some conclusions from them anyway. For instance, we could see HOW a 300 lb man or a skinny 5-11 kid succeeds. Certainly, they utilize different arsenals, arm speeds, release points, and other variables. to be among the most effective pitchers in the world. If CC tried to pitch like Tiny Tim, or vice versa, I\'m sure their effectiveness would be compromised.
I guess I am saying that the issue isn\'t what an ideal pitcher\'s frame is; it\'s more like how pitchers with certain frames tend to find more success. If there were an easy way to quantify the variables I listed above, it actually wouldn\'t be that hard to throw together.