Screw the ump I guess.

It's so much better than Cats. I'm going to read it again and again.

In late to say Rennie Stennett.

I seem to remember Mike Schmidt scoring from first on a wild pitch. No throwing errors involved. Yup. looked it up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGMRDE9K9hs (Tim McCarver alert...may want to mute.)

Lukewarm? He said he was maybe a level 5 instead of a level 6 player. Not everyone is Alex Rodriguez, and you shouldn't trust the scouts who tell you they are. As a Pirate fan suffering through a bout of Barmes, I'll take a steady diet of 5s at the position please. The lower levels are full of players destined to never make the majors, yet who have internet prospect hounds indiscriminately throwing 6s on them. Frankly, I find Mortimer's lack of faith refreshing!

My guess is Pete signed it and sold it.

There is no right answer to this question, but there are many, many wrong ones. You guys picked an answer that is not wrong. I think we are done here.

I know he played in an era of depressed offense, before ESPN, in a small market with a bad park and worse uniforms... But nobody ever hit them farther than Willie Stargell.

I get that Jurickson Profar is a great talent, worthy of the #1 prospect label. But is it really true that if he was, say, a flat footed 1B rather than a 'true SS', that his hit tool would still give him mention on this list? I'm not saying that he doesn't belong in the discussion because I frankly don't have enough information as I'm limited by the handful of at bats I've seen from his debut. But if you separate the hit tool from the rest of the prospect, and the hit tool is still worthy of 'best in class' discussion, then...just...wow.

Oh, and I should mention that Bonifacio is likely to gain eligibility all over the diamond as the year goes on, making him even more attractive than most or all of those 1 star picks.

Emilio Bonifacio is 2B eligible in many leagues this year (including Yahoo). I'd much rather roll the dice on him getting significant at bats and piling up SB than most of the 1 star selections.

This. Dude carved out a 14 year career, won 20 games as a 22 year old, went 135-88 in his career, had 2 CYA top 5 finishes, and last but not least made $32m in his career. A little more love for Martinez-the-Lesser please.

From what I can gather around the internet, the general argument is, "I didn't start paying attention to him until he was a Yankee and part-time players don't belong in the HOF."

Palmeiro's denials hardly constitute evidence. It was not Palmeiro's denials that convinced Perrotto. It was evidence presented by a trustworthy 3rd party. Yet the source (and now Perrotto) are satisfied to whistle through life, secure that only they know the real truth. I'm not looking to satisfy some public need for gratification here. This is a man's reputation and dignity at stake. I find it hard to believe there would be a legitimate legal reason to keep this a secret. Are prosecutors still looking to put people connected with 10 year old MLB doping cases in prison?

Wait...so somebody out there has evidence so overwhelming that Palmeiro is innocent of intentional doping that it can convince a veteran reporter like John Perrotto, yet that person has decided to keep it to himself/herself? And now Perrotto is a participant in this secret? Am I missing something here? If there is evidence that can clear this man's name then it needs to come forward. Period. I can't believe anyone would be willing to keep a secret that would clear a man's sullied name, even if that secret was embarrassing to yourself - even if revealing that secret could cost you a source/friendship. How can one sleep at night with this information, knowing that the rest of the baseball community has labelled Palmeiro a fraud, liar, and cheat? The information must not be THAT convincing. If John wanted to vote for Palmeiro, PED-be-damned, that's fine. Just say so.

Thank you. Now you'll have to have them all pulled out.

So... Traditional writers award the MVP based on HR, RBI, AVG...while complaining that people who vote for another candidate only care about numbers. I think I got it.

That's my point. The MOY criteria seems to be 'which team surprised everyone the most.' So why not give out that award? What evidence do we have that Buck was the best manager this year? A surprising number of MOYs get fired shortly thereafter.

Why does the IBA give out a manager award?

"They are isolated feats that, while neat, aren’t of tremendous overall value in the course of a season and thus aren’t good indicators of a player’s value." Wait, what? The triple crown is the exact opposite of an isolated feat. And I dare say it is a decent indicator of a player's value. I realize this entire article was written in jest, but...*scratches head*

He tried to leave money on the table before and the union killed it. What makes you think the union would let him walk away from $80m guaranteed even if he wanted to (and he wouldn't...just hypothetically speaking.)

Are you kidding? Ichiro might get 90% of the vote. He'll absolutely get 100% of the "I can't wait to write a story about why I voted for Ichiro because he obviously didn't use steroids" vote.

Good stuff. But who is this Kevin Goldstein you are quoting?

Matt Alexander called to say "Hello!"

I believe that's called 'prancing'. Barbaro Garbey...little known fact: Every pack of 1985 Topps baseball cards was required to have at least 1 Barbaro Garbey. Or so it seemed.

Mays may have fallen down in the outfield in 1973, but I have to think the Yankees would be thrilled if Ichiro gave them the same 2 WAR (OPS+ 145) that Mays gave the Mets in only 69 games in 1972.

Interesting that Lavalliere and Ortiz were platoon mates. I question though...why use hits instead of times on base?

Actually...that's a pretty nice list. I see an MVP candidate. (McCutchen) A 1st division starting middle infielder. (Walker) A late innings/back of the rotation pitcher (with a chance for more...Lincoln) A 4th/5th outfielder. (Pearce) A 12th man on the staff kind of guy (Moskos) There's WAR in them thar hills! Most teams would take that kind of result from their top 11 list, 4 years down the road. To think otherwise is to underestimate attrition rates for prospects.

I don't know that a lot of people have written him off...i just think it's been a case of 'out of sight, out of mind.' If Starling has a good first couple of weeks, everybody will be back on the bandwagon.

Exactly how does MLB justify that a 'would be' top 5 pick gets $30m on the open market, while the top overall pick has a slot of $7.2m? Entire teams are budgeting less than 30% of the TMV of a top pick for their entire draft. What a bargain!

"...his career seemed to go downhill after a trade to the Pirates..." Thanks for the daily chuckle.

Ah yes, quite true. I forgot the other teams Rule 5'd him. So instead of taking hacks against hacks in A ball, he was biding time on the pine. Still, no wonder he was a late bloomer!

The Pirates, Royals, Rays, and Orioles...those were the 4 teams that raised Bautista as a minor league pup in the early-mid aughts. Is it any wonder he was a late bloomer?

You forgot park factors. :P

Miguel Tejada

A financier of sabermetrics? I don't know whether I should sink my entire nest egg into wOBA or diversify across a broad range of traditional stats. Can you advise? I kid.

The wikipedia page for Quad-A hitter is just a picture of Brad Eldred.

I've seen base hits occur on lesser checked swings. Not sure what the debate is. He struck at the ball. Moving along...

Armando Galarraga called to say "Yer out!"

I'm imagining a bunch of seeing eye singles followed by Hamilton pulling the Little League move "run until they tag you out".

Wait...Billy Hamilton is slugging .673? I think this is my favorite small sample size fluke of the season so far.

That's a sign of being over matched at a particular level. It's as if he needs to cheat to hit the fastball, such that when he guesses fastball, he commits to swing before he has time to recognize the pitch. If everything goes right (he guesses fastball, gets fastball, and it ends up in a location he can handle), it goes 400 ft. If it's anything else, he whiffs or makes weak contact. If he doesn't guess fastball, he goes into take mode, which explains all the pitches he takes. It also explains why he is so useless after 2 strikes.

Lots of them. But they are all pitchers.

Can we do this every week please?

Perhaps I'm not the only person who gets irked that Matt Wieters is the go-to example of a prospect bust. I feel sorry for Bryce Harper if he doesn't have an MVP award by his 22nd birthday.

With this ad, there is no way I can even pretend to be reading something work related at work.

Gerrit Cole is going to have a hard time winning this award if the Pirates limit his innings as I think they will. I'll go off the board and say Jake Marisnick.

Nah. The umps would give him a freebie on Pete.

Good deal for the Pirates. Getting him through a couple of years of free agency will make him a much more valuable trade chip when the time comes. How many years of this contract will he spend in Pittsburgh? I set the over/under at 4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aspiring toward mediocrity since 1993.

I'll trade you my Gary Carter double if you have an extra Manny Trillo foil to complete my NL All Star page.

Bill Hamilton...SHSS? (Second-Half Seduction Syndrome) Just surprised to see him this high. Thanks for the list!

I believe that's moon weight.

How deep do the 3 star.....oh.

Darn. I was hoping for a baseball discussion in the comments. Maybe next time.

You are comparing Posada's hitting/baserunning/receiving against the average HOF catcher's hitting. Is that fair? We don't have a HOF baseline against which to compare Posada's framing (and to a lesser extent baserunning) skills. Is it fair to assume that the average HOF catcher had average skills in those areas? I don't know.

A normal human being isn't a professional athlete.

you dont have to pay the posting fee if you dont sign the player.

If Kevin would rather have Darvish than Wilson, then he is saying he thinks Darvish is no less than a 4 or 5 WAR pitcher for the next 5 or 6 years. How many Rangers of any age are better than that?

Is this a better use of the Rangers money than simply resigning CJ Wilson would have been? (I understand that Wilson wanted to pitch in California, but money talks.) It looks like the Rangers are going to pay significantly more money for Darvish than they would have had to spend to keep Wilson. Is Darvish that much better as to justify this expense? Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet projections for Wilson and Darvish look remarkably similar, and while the upside on Darvish is probably higher, so is the risk. If you are making a move simply as a reactionary measure, I don't think that's a good enough reason.

Perhaps I should have said "Everyone seems to think Tony Sanchez is in the process of busting."

..."miniature seat" with your "knees hitting your chin and the person in front of you"... The Nippon Ham Fighters played home games in Fenway Park? ...the person in front of you" who happens to be one of the "courteous Japanese" who "[was not] rude enough to complain" I guess not! Nevermind.

I'm very surprised Josh Bell got a 5 star rating here. Before anyone considers touting this as one of the top crops, consider that sum total of professional experience for their 5 stars guys is about 120 IP. Another thing I remain fascinated by is the sudden consensus that Tony Sanchez is a bust. Did his scouting reports go that far backwards? I know he was never seen as a potential star. But last year at this time folks were touting him as a safe bet to be a regular. His fall can't just be based on the 2010 minor league numbers, can it? For whatever reason, catchers often don't follow a typical development curve. I'm hoping that everyone has given up on him too quickly.

Taillon, Cole, Heredia, Allie, Cain....the Bucs future rotation just hasn't broken the seal yet. If 2 of those guys hit it big... and they can sign McCutchen beyond arb years... and Pedro Alvarez can learn some pitch recognition... and they find 2 or 3 bargain basement free agents who luck into career years with the Pirates... and Tony Sanchez turns into a major league regular... and all of this happens in the same year... ...they might finish over .500. So you want to be a Pirates fan?

lolz. Some people can see the evil hand of liberalism even in the MLB CBA! *reaches for tin foil hat*

GM thought process: "Player X just had a career year. Now I realize we almost ran him out of town only 12 months ago, but he will be a free agent after next season. I can't think of any reason to wait until next year to sign him to a long term, market rate contract."

I'd pay to watch Zombie Lima-Time.

Byung-Hyun Kim. Mark Lemke. (Though, more for post-season body of work than any singular moment. Perfectly non-descript regular season guy with remarkable post-season career.)

Is this David Littlefield?

Fielder is a below average fielder, but he is an above average Fielder.

I guess I'm surprised that 1 extra strike per game is 20 runs per season.

20 runs! That doesn't seem possible. I don't mean to cast doubt on the studies... I just, I mean, wow.

Sunk cost at this point.

Ah yes. That was the golden era of suspensions. Sometimes I'll flip through my worn Baseball Encyclopedia to the appendix that lists all of the player suspensions and gaze in amazement at the old records. Too bad the union had to ruin it all.

Why are you reading Baseball Prospectus? Why not just enjoy baseball the way your grandfather did. Attend the games or catch them on the radio. Check the national box scores in the paper. You won't see or hear anything about Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg or whatever flavor of the month it is you are trying to avoid. You make it sound as if information is being forced on you. Most of the rest of us want this information. That's why we pay the BP subscription rate.

The good Adam Dunn without the walks.... Oh, you mean Dave Kingman.

1. They are letting Alvarez have some extended success instead of bringing him back up to the majors where he was atrocious earlier. 2. The team as a whole is hot, and right or wrong, you tend not to mess with chemistry when you are on a hot streak. 3. Brandon Wood at least gives you competent defense at 3B...underrated attribute when you consider the Pirates' pitch to contact staff. That said, Pedro will be back VERY shortly.

For roto players, links to articles that will appear in the FUTURE would be more helpful. It would be nice to know if Heath Bell is going to be traded out of my NL Only league. Can you make that happen next weekend?

Youngest guy in AA <> slowly promoted That said, if he is still hitting .500 in another month, I have a feeling he'll get promoted. Let's give it more than 10 at bats.

I remember Tony Pena doing it sometime in the mid 80's. I don't remember who the opponent was. I think the opposing manager argued that Pena should be out for hitting the ball twice, but the umpire didn't notice it. Although we didn't have the HD-slo-mo cameras back then, it was clear that he had hit the ball twice on replay. Maybe someone can confirm that it wasn't just a dream. Wish I knew the opponent/date.

No kidding. Back in my day the batboy would have brought out a hacksaw, a shot of whiskey, and a leather strap to bite on. After hacking my own foot off, the manager would have asked me if I could stay in the game. /sarc wtf?

Who cares? Kevin doesn't have a Sunday column. Saturdays never happen in the minors.

If you bring up one of these prospects and they fail initially, it tarnishes their trade value.

I find it hard to believe that the shoulder is that bad since he has been playing with it all year. I'm guessing anything bad enough to diminish his long term projection would be bad enough to make him miss some time. Of course, I am not a doctor. I just play one on BP message boards.

I have neither patience nor pity for anyone in that front office. All goodwill has been thoroughly spent. I am no longer interested in being fair-minded.

Rendon. Of course, I haven't been sitting in the stands for any of his games so I assume (HA!) that the Pirates have had a better look at him than I.

Why does it seem like the Pirates always get the first overall pick when there is no 'slam dunk' candidate? I feel like I'm being set up for yet another clunker.

In that case, it would seem that we need 2 lists...one with catchers and one without. Makes no sense to combine them.

Passed balls, wild pitches, and all impact on the running game are not considered? I did not know that. Thanks Colin!

Mike Piazza had a 2.9 FRAA in 1997 while Johnny Bench was -1.2 in 1972. Wha??

UI error? That was posted under Imperialism32, I swear.

*SIGH* I 'm old enough to remember when a K per inning was astounding.

Just a little to young to have seen Harmon play. To me he will forever be the 3B/1B with the big fat "1" slot on his All Star Baseball disc.

I'm glad we didn't draft Wieters because I'm pretty sure I'd be tired of the endless "The Pirates ruined Matt Wieters" talk.

Wow. I don't get it. 1. Revenue growth appears to be decelerating. (Brewers already cashed in the new ballpark chip, the cable TV money train is already running at full steam and attendance is trending down.) This is taking a big gamble that salaries will continue to increase at or nearly at the recent rate. 2. Best case scenario/worst case scenario ratio is stacked against the team. At best, the team has locked up a good player at a slight discount. At worst, they hung a huge albatross on the franchise. 3. Why now? They couldn't wait to see what happens in the next labor agreement before signing this deal? That's another risk. Why not wait until Fielder leaves then use this extension as a public relations move?

So that would have been a Petco double?

Fantastic. Thanks for this.

Kevin never gets the odds right. It's remarked on every time he posts one of these (otherwise excellent!) articles. Time to get over it.

"non-ironic mustaches never went out of style" Trying to figure out if that is a plus or a minus...

I always assumed his drop off was because MLB started testing for steroids. Then I realized it was 1978, not 2004. And that I wasn't a knee-jerk sportswriter propagating a whisper campaign to keep someone I didn't like out of the HOF.

Key word being "listed".

But is he in the greatest shape of his life?

Thats why top prospects demand, and get, major league contracts. He'll be out of options long before he turns 24.

Will do when I get home.

Emulating it on my PC works really well. Go find an Amiga emulator and give it a shot (WinUAE).

Earl Weaver Baseball...oh the hours we spent on my Amiga replaying the 1989 season.

If the Padres called the Orioles and asked about a Maybin for Wieters swap, wouldn't the Orioles laugh them off the phone? Doesn't that indicate something? Or maybe I'm wrong about that.

Ok...not useless. But I can get free projections and values from other sources. The unique value of the PFM (to me anyway) is the inflation.

Yes. In fact, I was invited to join a new league last year that specifically prohibited internet access during the draft and considered my request to bring my laptop very suspiciously. (I was dumbfounded as well.) It's a very old league with several 'older' members who aren't technologically savvy. The draft lasts 10-12 hours long and they were concerned that I would have access to fresh injury/trade/cut news during the draft. Even if internet access were allowed, last year's draft was held in a cinder-block community rec room. No internet available unless you had 3G.

And skip the groin injuries.

YES. This this this. PFM is useless to anyone who doesn't have internet access at their draft.

Now if only Julio Teheran makes his MLB debut dressed as a turkey... I guess this audience is too young for that reference.

Won't somebody please name Chad Hermansen?

This is a failed prospect list. Not a failed draft pick list. Matt Bush was never a top prospect.

The way I look at these lists is in tiers: Top 10, next 20, next 20 after that, then all the rest. Really, there is VERY little difference between being the 50th ranked prospect and the 90th, despite all the hullabaloo.

Great stuff, Mike (and Jeff). I'll be impressed when Buster can find scouts who can consistently predict which pitchers are GOING to get hurt. It's a confirmation bias - post hoc ergo propter hoc double play!

Well that's a completely different point. Your original question was, 'What was the point of PECOTA?' What you really wanted to ask was 'What was the point of using the weighted means in this article?' I've never quite understood the 90/10 percentile stuff PECOTA puts out anyway.

I can provide you with my psychic player predictions for a price. Same reliability as a meteorologist who is willing to predict in February that you'll have a sunny 92 degree day for your July 4th picnic.

I think you misunderstand what a forecasting system is all about. Instead you want a hunch-casting system. If I asked you right now to predict what the high temperature will be like for every day in the first week in July in Chicago, wouldn't you predict whatever the average was over the last X number of years for each day? So your predictions might look something like this: 80 - 80 - 80 - 81 - 81 - 81 - 81. Does that mean you think the high temperature won't EVER get above 81 during that week? Does that mean you think the high temperature won't ever be below 80? Keep in mind...the larger the sample size, the more accurate you should be in the aggregate. But in a larger sample size you'll also have a greater chance for some extreme data points meaning that your biggest misses will be bigger.

PECOTA (or any half decent projection system) is not a good measure as to what you should expect at the extremes of a given population. It's trying to give you a prediction for each individual. Some of the individuals will outperform. Some will underperform. Just because PECOTA doesn't project anyone to hit 40 home runs, or win 17 games, or hit .330 doesn't mean PECOTA is predicting nobody from the population will outperform their expectations to those extents.

The alternative is Pat Burrell! Random high school left fielder would be perfectly fine.

I wasn't. In fact, I implied exactly what you are pointing out when I hedged by saying that the scouting reports back up the impressive performance.

Anybody else get the impression this list could look a lot less impressive next year? Other than Montero, seems like the guys who impressed all did it in smallish sample sizes. Of course, the scouting reports back up the performance. Still, some regression is due.

Matt Diaz for $1 in leagues with daily transactions (take him out of the lineup against RHP). Career .335/.373/.533 in 735 AB against LHP.

My answer to that question is always, "I spend half the work day reading Baseball Prospectus."

I meant to put "American's" in quotes to make a point about the misplaced possessive. But I'm obviously one of the under-educated ones. Lol!

I know more American's who are over-educated than under-educated. And I don't think folks are complaining that they are offended. I think they are complaining that the article doesn't belong on the site. I really couldn't care either way.

Would somebody please get this article off of my lawn!

It just seems like a game that requires a lot longer than 1 month to really get into. Maybe I'm wrong.

So it's just a 1 month trial/promotional period for BP subscribers? I'm already marketed to death.

1B Fielding percentage? RBIs? Was this cross-posted from ESPN or something? Just kidding ya.

1 tool player? I guess if McGwire had a better arm he might have gotten your vote.

I think he picked up the change up long after he was taken in the Rule 5. Santana without the change up is a different pitcher.

Harper was the top pick in the draft and is being compared to the greatest prospects of all time. You, and many other people who read all the prospect lists, think that everyone 4 star and up should be an All Star someday. There is A LOT that can go wrong in the transition to the major leagues, even for top prospects. You gotta give credit to the guys who have already mastered that transition.

I think you discount how difficult it is for even 5 star prospects to turn into everyday major league players.

major league players > minor league players It's not like Zimmerman and Storen don't have at least some track record of success in the majors. I'd say there is quite a gap between them and Norris.

I think the take-away is this... The writers, and by extension the general baseball public, are not ready to accept advanced stats. What they are willing to do is to re-evaluate the traditional stats. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young not because voters were looking at advanced stats. He won because voters were willing to put ERA, K's, and IP above Wins.

Absolutely. They knew he would take more money to sign.

I suspect if John had said he flipped a coin and it came up Wilson, you would not have complained.

Looks like I'm cutting him loose from my fantasy team!

Read the thread above.

I get the sinking feeling people will still be asking the question, "Do you think this is the year Milledge breaks out?" for several years to come.

Zach Duke? No way the Bucs offer him arbitration.

RE: Moyer... Or in the Pirates case, look at what they got from their #1 starter.

Ok...excited is too strong a word. LOL

Damn, I was seriously excited about a heretofore unheard of hot prospect owned by the Pirates!

Yes, Phil Hughes 'spit the bit.' By all means, dump that bum. Sincerely, 29 other GMs

I think you should hold the players responsible, not Tanner. It's a bit much to say Tanner "led his team" into tragedy. But I wholeheartedly agree this would have been a more interesting piece if there was some exploration of the sad fate that would soon befall many of the key players on this team...Parker, Scurry, Milner, and Berra chief among them.

Dude...it was 30+ years ago. The Orioles and the Phillies have both had a great deal of success since then. Put the Air Supply, premium Corinthian leather, and polyester leisure suit away and move on.

Yes, there is a difference. As much as a manager should be responsible for the behavior of grown men in his charge, Tanner should be held responsible. However, those transgressions largely, if not entirely, took place in subsequent years. This article was about the '79 Pirates. Nobody is going to celebrate anything about the Pirates of the early 80's.

I won't make a worn out 'product of their time' argument to excuse drug abuse. But it's a little bit unfair to taint this specific team with drug accusations. This was entering the peak of the cocaine epidemic in baseball and no clubhouse was immune. But you said it yourself...Milner was buying cocaine as early as 1980, not 1979. The drug trials of 1985, which were focused on drug use in the early 80's, did not find evidence of use on the 1979 team. And I'm not sure what the point about the amphetamines allegation is. Isn't it part of MLB lore that greenies were freely available in every clubhouse in the majors? Should we discount this particular team or a particular player because you heard an anecdote that the player gave amphetamines to another player? I doubt you had to go any farther than the head trainer's candy dish to pick up some greenies in 1979. That would apply to every team. If you think amphetamine use or even cocaine use was not an issue on the 1980 Phillies, 1981 Dodgers, or 1982 Cardinals, then you have staked out a remarkable position.

Tanner was a mixed bag at best. I don't think anyone can defend Omar Moreno 700 plate appearances at the top of the lineup. And I have the distinct impression that he ran way too much, especially with a lineup that had a great deal of power for the time. But I think he did a good job finding platoon advantages on both offense and with his bullpen. I think today's managers could learn a lesson about how to run a bullpen from Tanner with regard to using his best pitcher in high leverage situations and getting into the bullpen early when appropriate. Like I said...a mixed bag. He probably was just in the right place at the right time. But that could be said of any World Series winning manager.

I'm a Pittsburgh native who spent several years living in Baltimore. My experience is that for whatever reason, folks in Baltimore have not gotten over the 1979 World Series. Thanks for that reminder.

Flash in the pan? The Bucs were consistently good throughout the 70's, bookended by their World Series titles. They were a wild pitch away from appearing in a 3rd World Series. Quite a flash in the pan.

I can't wait for 2014/2015...the years Taillon and Allie make it to the majors and the years just before Alvarez/Tabata/Walker leave as free agents. That is the Pirates window...to make it to .500.

But those projections were for Jose Bautista. Not Jose Bautista with a baseball playing alien taking over his body.

Unfortunately, that comment just sent Seidman back to the 12th dimension.

He's a disappointment, not a bust. Dude has given them almost 600 above average innings in 3+ years. He hasn't won a CYA (he ONLY has 1 top 5 finish)...but calling him a bust reduces the value of that word.

Wait...Matsuzaka was a bust?

Gotta treat each pitcher as an individual case. There is no reason to think Darvish is Matsuzaka is Nomo is Irabu ad infinitum. Perhaps Colby Lewis is a comp. Compare his numbers and scouting reports in Japan to Darvish.

4 of the top 13 players on this list (Sveum, Nunez, Ward, & Garcia) feature prominently in the never-ending Pirate losing streak. Perhaps WARP should be renamed Win Above Replacement Pirate.

100 pitches....a nice arbitrary round number. Why do I get the feeling that if we had invented a base 12 counting system that there would be a lot more complete games?

I assume Kevin's opinion on Betances' stuff is an aggregate scouting opinion, based on reports from at least a few different sources. I'm not sure if Keith Law goes mostly by what only he sees. Assuming he does, then I'd probably trust Kevin here.

This comment is going to look really silly in about 5-6 years when they are nearing a quarter century of losing. 19 is small potatoes.

Better question is, why would Jeter accept something like the Wakefield deal? That's giving the team an option into perpetuity!

He should have threatened to retire after last season. Nobody would have dinged his reputation for it. Could have played it off as retiring a champion. Then the Yanks would have come with checkbook open...4 years / $23 mill. Now I think he'll get 4 years $15 mill and it might get ugly.

He is among the worst (if not the worst) defensive catchers in the International League. Do you think CC Sabathia might have something to say about throwing to Montero next year?

Not in DanLong's dreams!

No "BP Staff" tag on Will's comment above. Oh well.

No intro. No continuation of the article-1000 countdown. Posting on twitter that he's not sure when or if his article would be posted. The drama tank ain't on empty yet, unfortunately.

Buried in the comments from the last "On The Beat" article.

A.P. is reporting that Strasburg is to have Tommy John surgery. Might as well post breaking injury news here.

Well, they have said that they will give us information as soon as possible. Does that count? I suspect there are legal wranglings as to how much of UTK Will is able to take to his next venture. But who knows? Let's all speculate! John Perrotto is clearly doing the best he can to provide us with injury news and it is appreciated.

Yup. I didn't mean to imply that I don't enjoy anything else here. But Carroll's UTK (and to a lesser extent Goldstein) is the offering that I think you can't get anywhere else. I enjoy the saber-slanted articles. (See today's piece by Colin.) But frankly, I don't have the intellectual curiosity (some would say the word I am looking for is "capacity") to digest most of it. I find myself always skipping to the conclusion. Goldman's pieces are great...but he's not a daily read. Christina is great...but I can get transactional information (with less style mind you) from 20 other places. Love most of the chats of course. I really don't mean to knock what BP is doing. I think they have made some significant changes that are bound to please a lot of people. I'm just personally disappointed and using this public forum to whine about it.

I honestly don't have the time to weed through 700 cryptic twitter posts to try and figure out why Will Carroll disappeared. I presume information is coming shortly (see Dave Pease above), but it's been a week now.

I presume a 'brief time away from the majors' means either a bullpen role or being the designated emergency call up starter...not a rotation fixture. I'm hoping he doesn't get Chamberlain-ized.

...and then there was Goldstein. $40 for 1 writer. Decisions, decisions.

If your point is that baseball would have lost Jackie Robinson to football...then I think you have no point at all. The NFL was hardly integrated in the 1940's. See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_players_in_American_professional_football And baseball was hardly lucrative in the 1940's, especially for black players. I don't think I need to link to a reference to support that statement. I'd really love a full length article examining (not conjecturing) how much talent, if any, MLB would lose if it went to a hard-slot system. Maybe someone could explain how the draft has impacted talent coming out of Puerto Rico. I would love to see causation, not just correlation. I am not in favor of a hard slotting system. There are MANY good reasons why MLB should not implement such a system. I just don't think this is one of them and it is really watering down the argument. I've posted enough I guess. Don't want to keep banging this drum.

You might miss out on one or two all star caliber major leaguers per generation. That is a far cry from claiming the minor leagues would be stripped of talent or that the majority of high school draftees would choose not to play baseball.

I'm not aware of an influx of Puerto Rican talent coming into the NFL or NBA since the MLB subjected them to the draft. How awesome are the non-sports economic opportunities in Puerto Rico that prospective big leaguers are passing up the chance to play minor league baseball because their bonuses are being suppressed by the draft. I still don't see the evidence.

There aren't enough MLB quality high school players getting drafted by the NBA (are there any?) so let's forget about the NBA for a minute. NFL 4th round picks are getting about $300k-$400k bonuses...not several million. And remember that the contracts are not guaranteed. I can't see a genuine MLB prospect giving up a couple of hundred thousand in an MLB bonus for the chance to make a little more 3 years later in the NFL.

So are you asserting that the Upton's would have gone to college for the chance to enter the NFL draft 3 years hence, rather than sign for whatever #1/#2 MLB pick bonus would be under a hard-slot system? That's not believable. The only guys MLB would lose are: 1. The players who are mediocre baseball prospects but significantly better prospects in the other sports who would otherwise get paid overslot bonuses to buy them out of a college commitment to the other sport. 2. Dual sport college stars (Samardzija types) who wouldn't have to wait for their payday in the non-MLB sport and could no longer be bought out of their interest in the other sport. How many guys in the most recent draft had to be given significant overslot money in order to keep them from playing football/basketball in college? I really can't believe it is more than a handful.

We aren't even talking a few more million. In almost every case, we are talking a few more thousand. And even those few extra thousand dollars, in the case of high school players who want to play football, are going to be deferred.

"Hard slots mean that Major League Baseball has decided to steer players away from the game, as without the ability to exceed even recommended slots, a large number, if not a majority of, high school players selected after the first two or three rounds would elect to go to college or, even worse, attend college and pursue another sport. The minor leagues would quickly be stripped of talent, and MLB would be cutting off its nose to spite its face." I'm not buying this at face value. Where is the evidence that hard-slotting the draft would hurt product on the field? The NFL moved to a 'hard' slot-based draft system without anyone suggesting that the product on the field suffered. And draft position is much more closely tied to success in the NFL than in MLB. Even if I buy the assertion that a hard-slot system will drive players away from MLB, I can't believe it would be a 'majority' of high schoolers drafted after the first couple of rounds. You have to consider: 1. How many players that get drafted have the potential to play another sport professionally? (A sizable minority, but certainly not a majority.) 2. Of that set, how many would actually give up a baseball career for another sport based on the hard slot figure? 3. What would be the hard slot figures? (Perhaps I will buy KGs assertion if he is assuming the owners would set absurdly low hard slot bonuses. But remember, this would be negotiated so I assume the bonuses would be reasonable.) I'm guessing the number of players who fit criteria #1 AND #2 above, given a reasonable figure for #3 is a handful AT MOST every year. Certainly not enough to 'strip' the minor leagues of talent. I just can't see a 'majority' of the mid-late round high school picks deferring the opportunity to get paid to play over a couple of thousand dollars. It's not like the bonuses after the first few rounds are significant anyway. Of course, I'm willing to be convinced otherwise. Show me the evidence.

Yeah, I traded him 2 years ago for Grady Sizemore. Seemed like a great idea at the time.

Perhaps this will start a trend of protecting the glove-hand behind the back. Er, maybe not.

Drafting isn't the only thing the Pirates have done poorly. They can't seem to develop prospects either. They gotta prove it at this point.

Fair or unfair...anytime I see an early 30's Latin American player fall off a cliff, I wonder how old he really is.

I NEVER understood why otherwise smart men would piss away $2 million on a crap pick rather than spending $5 million on someone with upside. Where is the logic in that? If you have decided that the draft is not worth spending money on, then don't spend any money at all. Instead the cheap teams insist on paying 3rd round talents 1st round slot money rather than paying a small premium.

Trout? Stanton? On the outside of the top 100?

Ernie Harwell does not approve.

Perhaps he wasn't ready to catch major league infield throws.

Would it be considered tampering if the Pirates (insert other crappy team here) hinted that they'd give him a blank check next year if he decided to hold out? I can't see how it WOULD be tampering because nobody owns Harper's rights yet.

I think you just proved my point that "make-up" is worth a mention.

Is Make-up a tool? Any probable 1st rounders stand out in that regard?

Thank you for 'accidentally' writing this article...very entertaining.

If Mike Stanton posts those numbers, he won't be eligible.

Um...if he finishes .333/.398/.656 I think he will be the #1 prospect coming into 2011.

You are on the mark here. Different types of pitchers may survive different types of usage/training methods (perhaps there are failed American pitchers who would have been great had they started in Japan.) If you have a mid-career pitcher who has shown he can thrive under a certain set of conditions, why would you want to change that?

If even Will is jumping off the Dice-K bandwagon, I'm selling that stock.

#1. Don't believe the 90 at bats. #2. He is a much better choice than Steve Pearce.

You want another nitpick about Harper? (The nitpickiest nitpick of all?) He has drawn only 28 walks in roughly 185 plate appearances. 28/185 is a damn fine ratio under most circumstances, but not for a guy slugging .910 in a league with very inexperienced pitchers. Now, I am NOT about to criticize the plate discipline of a guy with a .497 OBP(!!!), but something odd is going on here. Perhaps league offensive numbers are a bit higher than I think and .910 sluggers are nothing special. Perhaps pitchers recognize that they will get noticed if they get Harper out and are trying to make their reputation by going right at him. It just seems like he should be getting pitched around a bit more than he is, considering his numbers and the quality of pitching in his league.

I thought that was a feature, not a bug.

Folks used to say the same exact things about Aramis Ramirez as they now do about Pedro Alvarez (barely adequate range, big frame likely to get bigger, strong but inconsistent arm)... so many years later, Aramis is still playing 3b. I think it's very possible Alvarez could still be at 3b until his free agent years.

Now that's VORP you can't calculate.

Does anything prevent a team from doing business with a company owned by a player? Why couldn't Pujols own a food vending company or something like that, and then negotiate his playing contract in combination with some kind of interest for his company? So, you sign Pujols to a $300 million deal and give a $100 million contract to his company to provide vending services at the stadium. Just an admittedly poor example, but one worth considering.

Wait...15 year olds throw sliders?

Yes. They could piss off Strasburg which might have longer reaching implications.

It is also possible that a team of aliens from a baseball playing planet in the Zulidicar Sector will arrive on Earth, declare their intentions to play for the Pirates, get paid in Chuck-E-Cheese tokens, and lead the Bucs to a 147-15 finish (still can't beat the Cardinals as it turns out Pujols has some sort of anti-Zulidicarian enzyme in his sweat that turns the aliens into Bobby Hill). I mean, the probability of it happening is infinitesimal, but it is non-zero. In that light, I agree with you that 82 wins is possible for this club in this division.

So what you are saying is that I shouldn't keep Micah Hoffpauir. Right?

I would also have expected someone, anyone, to at least do a spot check on the PECOTAs before publishing them. 5 minutes into browsing some big name players and it's obvious that they are broken. It's also obvious that nobody at BP did that 5 minute check.

If I was looking for another 3b, I'd draft Pedro Alvarez over any of those 2 star guys.

These are great changes. Glad I renewed. Just don't tease me next time. lol

Not to pick on you, Marc, but the "Exciting things are coming but I can't tell you about them!" line is getting a little tired. Seems to be some kind of BP mantra for 2010. It's nearly March...when are the exciting things coming? People are making subscription decisions everyday. I just renewed this week. It might have been an easier decision if I knew what the exciting things were, or better yet, had the exciting things in my hands. So far in 2010 we have, what, SIERA? That's nice and all. Where are the blogs we've been promised? Sorry for the rant. I guess I'm just from the school of "underpromise and overdeliver." Please don't misunderstand. I love BP otherwise I wouldn't have just written another $40 check. Now I will go back to my corner and let everyone bury this post.

There is a joke in here somewhere about steroids, giant heads, and that large "concussion-proof" helmet Wright wears...but I'm not going to make it. You can't joke about politics, race, religion, or steroids.

If you were a pitcher who's best pitch was a ground-ball inducing forkball, you might be inclined to name Maz as the best player you played with.

I agree with Irgreen that this is navigating through some very thick fog, to borrow a Jamesian phrase. I'm not sure this line of research is worth the effort. (That doesn't mean I don't appreciate the article or the effort. In fact, it is just the opposite. I love that Pizza, er, Russell took a risk.) I disagree with Irgreen that major league players 'are what they are.' Surely there is some benefit to coaching, even at the major league level. Examples abound.

My impression is that managers do relatively little in the way of instruction. Would these numbers correlate better to the hitting/pitching coaches working under the managers? When Kelly left the Twins, did Gardenhire keep the same staff? Even if managers aren't directly responsible for player instruction, they should get some credit for setting the tone of the organization through the hiring of the coaching staff. Perhaps Ozzie is effective at selecting a staff?

This was great. Also, who is Gary Huckaby?

Wouldn't a player be more likely to have LASIK surgery after a season in which he had a poor performance relative to expectations (even if the poor performance was due to luck)? Wouldn't we expect that player to naturally regress toward his true talent the next season? So I would expect, even if we had a large sample size, to see some artificial improvement for players who had LASIK.

How many people regret a victimless crime that earned millions of dollars for themselves and everyone around them? Unless you are of superior moral fiber, you would not.

I peaked as a player at age 11. Just sayin' Doesn't this study boil down to the following statement? "Players who play longer than average have later peaks than average." And isn't that almost begging the question?

The media didn't cover it because the fans didn't care to read about it. MLB didn't test for it because the fans didn't care if players were using it. Neither the media nor MLB wanted to ruin a good thing. Once Barry Bonds starting breaking records, fans started to suddenly care about steroids so the media started reporting on it. Then Congress inexplicably got involved. Suddenly, dollars were at risk so MLB started to care and implemented drug testing. Everyone is to blame...perhaps least of all the players for whom the decision to use steroids was sometimes driven by desperation. Of course, the players have taken the brunt of the blame from the hypocritical media and MLB management.

The first player who comes out and tells the TRUTH will be my hero. What truth is that? The truth that they don't regret having taken steroids. Do you REALLY think McGwire regrets taking steroids? I don't. Instead we have to listen to all these PC bullship mea culpas. The statement I want to hear is, "While I don't recommend anyone use steroids to enhance their athletic performance and while I would never encourage anyone to do anything illegal, I cannot say that I regret using steroids. They helped me stay on the field and reach my potential. They helped me win games for myself and my teammates and make millions of dollars for myself and for baseball. While I do regret lying about using steroids, I cannot regret using them during a time when the use was tacitly encouraged by my team, MLB, the media, and the fans." Maybe Barry Bonds will be the guy who does this. He doesn't seem to be too concerned with being popular or politically correct.

Was puzzling to me at first too. But Segui has been very open and honest about his PED usage and his vote may have been a recognition of that. I suspect whoever cast a vote for him did not cast a vote for McGwire.

Lol. Internet rule #1...never post before coffee!!

Lou Whittaker sheds a tear.

I honestly can't say that Joe was one of my 'must reads' here, but I certainly enjoyed his work over the years. It's never good news for subscribers when a talented writer leaves. Best of luck Joe! I don't expect BP to cater to my preferences, but there was a time when I read every word of every article. Now I find myself coming back only for prospect and injury news. Did I leave BP or did BP leave me? I'm not sure. I'll be watching the 'changes' intently.

Were either of those 2 things unexpected? If they were happy with the contract the day it was signed, they should be happy with it today.

I'd bet hidden posts get more attention anyway. Certainly they stand out. Talk about unintended consequences.

I was thinking Freddie Sanchez.

I wasn't criticizing anything.

But are those bullpen arms and 4th outfielders in the top 11 if we consider all the potential future free agents the Yankees can select from? I realize the crux of my argument is semantic. Moving on.

Jeter, Posada, Rivera? That's a different era. I'll put your Chamberlain, Hughes, Cano, Gardner against my Teixeira, Sabathia, A-Rod, Vazquez, Burnett, and Damon. The Yankees look at prospects differently that any other club...rightfully so! Their approach to prospects and player acquisition is entirely appropriate for their circumstances. I never said the Yankees have not brought up useful players. (Though I would point out that you had to go back to 1995 to find enough players to make your list.) Surely they will again in the future.

Noooo no no no no no no. My point was that with the exception of Montero, the top prospective future Yankees are currently playing for other major league teams. How many of these guys have star level upsides? Montero. Kevin said it himself in the article that there is precious little room on a Yankees' major league roster for any thing but. That's the way it goes when you have a perennially championship level club. Time and roster space are more precious commodities to the Yankees than cash. Are you trying to pretend Manny Banuelos is more likely to make 30 starts some year for the Yankees than Zack Grienke? Zach McAllister than Cliff Lee? Go find all the contracts that expire between now and 2013, list out the top 10 names, throw Montero in there somewhere, and that list better represents the Yankees' future than this list. Please don't think I'm complaining. That's the way it should be with a team that aims to win 100 games and the World Series every year. I'm merely making the point that this list could more accurately be titled "The Top 11 Prospects in the Yankees' System." But it is surely not the "Yankees' Top 11 Prospects."

A truly honest Top 11 list for the Yankees would involve Montero stuck somewhere between the 10 most desirable MLB players with contracts expiring in the next 2 years. Montero is the only guy on this list (I guess maybe Romine) who has any chance at a significant career with the Yankees.

This position is not for me. I prefer to work "au naturale". Boxers are a little too confining.

I watch NFL games on DVR because I can get through them in 40 minutes, which is both a blessing (score-commercial-extra point-commercial-kick-commercial) and necessary (3 young children). Yesterday I found myself rewinding several times due to a "Did he actually say what I thought he said?" reaction. I tend to believe Joe Buck doesn't put a lot of stock into statistics because a deeper understanding of the game is HARD. Just watching and describing what you see is easy and it pays the mortgage(s). Oh...and the Steelers do have a poor defense.

You have a great point about MLB vs NFL. If not for my DVR (fast forward through commercials and huddles) I'm not sure I could get through an entire NFL game with all the stoppages. Perhaps what MLB needs to do is to make obstruction of baserunners legal. That way you'd start to see infielders blind-siding runners going around the bases (but you aren't allowed to hit a pitcher). A few spinal concussions later, the ratings would be golden.

No DH, no wild card, no amateur draft, no Latin American players, most of the best black players still playing in the Negro Leagues, no teams west of St. Louis... Is MLB really operating like it's the 1950's?

To be fair to Bud, he is no kind of traditionalist. His reign has been one of radical, game altering changes... expansion, wild cards, turning a blind eye while steroids proliferated, followed by the institution of steroid testing. The one consistenct thing is that he is only interested in changes that put $change$ in the owners' pockets. I don't mean that as an insult because that is why he became commissioner; and he has been very good at his job. If you want to see Bud support, say instant replay, then all you have to do is demonstrate that it means more profit.

Actually...I might trust Sheehan on politics a little more than Will.

Just because you look like the stereotype of intelligence doesn't mean you are an expert on all matters. When will George Will stop being taken seriously in baseball or economics?

Was Barry Bonds not in the top 20 for WARP in the aughts?

I would be willing to bet that comments that get 'hidden' are read in much greater proportion than comments that are not. So...at the least the system is self-defeating.

I'm going to go ahead and make the observation that, shudders aside, Oliver Perez's first 6 years were worth more than the bonus figures currently being discussed for Chapman ($15-$20 mill). So even if Perez is Chapman's most likely outcome (and I am NOT saying that), then you are getting a fair deal. You have to remember that he is a free agent, not a draftee.

I'm sure that is the reason...plus players who get a late start tend to have early exits, no matter how great their peak. Still, I'd be willing to lay a series of bets that Utley will accumulate more WARP between 2010-2019 than Heyward, Anderson, Montero, Harper, Stanton, Ranaudo, Santana, or Escobar. I might not win all the bets...but I'd win enough to make a fistful of dollars.

The premise of the exercise, in Kevin's words: "To find out, let's have a fantasy baseball draft, only this one goes by some different rules. Instead of a fantasy scoring system, we'll base the value on real baseball value, using something like our own WARP." I see nothing in there about salary considerations. Values are based on WARP.

Chapman's eventual bonus will be commensurate with the Yankees' estimate of Boston's interest...unless Chapman is willing to take a few million less to follow Iglesias.

Brett Anderson and Jason Heyward in the top 15, and barely even a mention of Troy Tulowitzki, Grady Sizemore, Justin Verlander, and Miguel Cabrera? I realize that Kevin is a prospect maven, but to put prospects ahead of pre-peak players who have already posted MVP or Cy Young caliber seasons? Shazzam. Had this list been generated last year, I'm guessing Wieters would have been in the top 10 and now he is lumped with the honorable mentions after what looked like a successful (unless your name is PECOTA) rookie season. Doesn't that expose the flaw in this reasoning?

Who doesn't love Peter Gammons...a great reporter and gentleman. I only hope ESPN will still cover the Red Sox.

It might drive the leverage of Type A's down as a whole, but it would improve the situation of the individual. It's a tragedy of the commons situation, no? What were the reasons the Juan Cruz thing got shot down? Was the union all over it?

The top 15 draft slots are protected. You don't lose them if you sign a Type A free agent.

What, if any, rules are in place to prevent a team with a pick in the bottom half of the draft from cutting a deal with a team in the top half of the draft with regard to signing a Type A free agent. For example, could the Pirates sign Mike Gonzalez then flip him to the Yankees for a C grade prospect? Seems like win/win for the 2 teams. Gotta be some rule in place, no?

Matt Williams definitely looks similar to Wood in his first couple of seasons. That's a great comparison if you believe in Wood's upside. Certainly it's not impossible for him to become a productive major leaguer. I just think it's highly improbable in light of the evidence we have. If I were starting a franchise, I'd take Mike Trout or Hank Conger over Brandon Wood. Just my opinion of course.

I don't want to lose sight of the prospect list, but your ranking of Wood is really surprising to me. Sure, he's been jerked around and he's never been given the chance to sink or swim. But when I look at him objectively, I see a player who has severe issues controlling the strike zone (7 walks against 74 k's in 236 MLB plate appearance). Add that to his career 39 OPS+...man I just can't ignore that evidence. It's a small sample size, but it's not an insignificant sample size. I'm not ready to shut the door, but I can't convince myself he is likely to have any sort of significant MLB career.

To be fair, even Einstein would sign Damon to a 4 year deal if the price was right. And I suspect there is a small market GM out there who would be more than willing to pay Damon's price for 4 years if only Damon would be willing to play 2nd division baseball for the rest of his career. Or not. It's hard for me to think clearly ever since living through the Littlefield years.

Is Barry Bonds still waiting for a phone call?

See here: http://www.tangotiger.net/pitchCounts.html And here: http://www.tangotiger.net/pitchLogKoufax.html And here: http://www.tangotiger.net/archives/stud0088.shtml The number of pitches per start has been a periodic subject of study over at Tangotiger's blog. One theory that seems to be supported by the evidence is that the average pitch count per start hasn't changed very much over the years, but that the range of pitch count possibilities was much greater in the past. In other words, pitchers were sometimes asked to go to 160+ pitches in the past (which would never happen today) but those pitchers were compensated by being more frequently yanked very early in games.

I'm not sure all the dinosaurs are dead. I would be willing to bet that there are at least a few pitchers out there who would be able to survive on short or irregular rest, go to 160 pitches on occasion, and pitch 300+ innings a year. The problem is that you don't know which guys can do that until they actually do it. And you burn through an awful lot of arms in the process. Is it worth it to let, say, Josh Beckett pitch 300 innings a year if it means a Jon Papelbon, a John Lester, and a Clay Buchholz are teaching gym class at age 27?

The Sizemore comment was a bit of a suprise to me too. I'm inclined to give him a bit of a pass on his age 26 season due to injury, but his age 23, 24, and 25 seasons were reasonably identical (7-8 WAR). On the surface that might seem disappointing I guess. I dunno. But the implication is that Sizemore was reasonably projected to be a 10 WAR player at age 25. That's Albert Pujols territory. Perhaps it's more of a compliment for Westmoreland that he could become such a player than it is a slight on Sizemore. But I have a hard time even suggesting anybody could be a 10 WAR type player.

Why would you stop reading a biography simply because the subject did some peculiar things? Doesn't that make it more interesting?

To be honest, the Royals and Pirates are not the best examples to give when griping about parity. But, yeah.

Because the Phillies are the first team since 2001 to make consecutive World Series means that we have parity? In an otherwise excellent article, that statement sticks out like a sore, puss-filled thumb.

Wake me up when/if we get to a game 7.

I'm not buying the argument about giving the top starters extra rest. Why should the post-season be decided by which teams have the best 2 starting pitchers? If that is what you want, then why not cut every series down to 5 games and put enough off-days in there to allow the #1 pitcher to go in games 1, 3, and 5?

Is BP taking money on these odds? I've got $100 to put on the Angels.

I have yet to read any discussion of how to improve the Pirates (and yes, there are some!) that includes the proposition that they should trade for Youkilis, Cano, or Chamberlain. Yet you somehow presume that the Red Sox COULD, if they wanted to, pry cheap, controlled talent like Morgan and Davis away from other teams. I didn't mean to single you out...I just see it over and over again in these 'What should (big market club X) do in the offseason?' threads.

Check your sarcasm meter. Seems broken.

Are Dunn, Davis, and Morgan available? Perhaps the Red Sox should trade Papelbon for Grienke, then trade Bowden for McCutchen and turn Bard into the closer. There, problems solved. The other 28 teams do not exist merely to satiate the desires of the Red Sox and Yankees.

If I had all the information available to the Pirates, both public and proprietary, the question I'd attempt to answer is... WTF?

One step further...I'm going to suggest that we don't know that the data shows that ground ball pitchers change their approach in double play situations. I don't see where Ken controlled for situations where the pitchers might be trying to pitch situationally in the data he is comparing to the double play data. So instead it's possible that the numbers he is seeing in double play situations is indicative of the 'normal' ground ball inducing talent, and the larger sample differs because it includes situations where the pitcher is trying to keep the ball out of play, via strikeout or walk.

Can you get us a suite?

I've been waiting for A LONG TIME for you guys to come to Pittsburgh...and then you come the night of my big fantasy football draft. In the future, I'd like you to clear all BP appearances with me before they are scheduled. Is it too much to ask?

And all this time I thought maybe Huntington traded you for a couple of 12 year old future beat writers.

I'd also like to know how home teams fair in the first game of a homestand. I theorize that away teams do better as the series goes on due to the rigors of travel. But if that is true, then you should see a difference when the home team is fresh off the road as well.

Has anyone taken the Questec data and tried to figure out if this is true? A quick 2 second google search was fruitless.

Some possibilities that have nothing to do with psychology: 1. GM's select players best able to take advantage of their home environment. 2. The effect of twilight and shadows on the pitcher/batter confrontation. (The effect should lessen as the game goes on with the advantage going to the team hitting in the bottom of every inning.) 3. Perhaps I missed this being discussed....but obviously home teams win more often because they have the strategic advantage of hitting last.

I would love to hear stories about a draftee's first days with his new team. Imagine, a raw 18 year old kid, just out of high school and suddenly out on his own, travelling to Palookavilles he's never been to, trying to figure out why you are supposed to hold a wooden bat with the trademark up. These guys have probably always been the best player everywhere they have played, and suddenly they are surrounded by dozens of guys better than anyone they have ever played against. How do organizations handle this transition? What are some stories of guys breaking into the pros? Are there differences between how organizations handle these guys?

Does that mean that if we buried Jose Reyes under the infield dirt he would come back to us as Bud Harrelson circa 1977?

I had a Nate Mclouth jersey once. But I traded it for several spools of thread. You never know what those spools of thread might turn into one day.

Thank you for posting a rebuttal instead of merely dinging the original comment. Those of you who dinged the comment and did not explain why, phooey on you.

Someone posts a legitimate criticism of PECOTA and it gets dinged with a bunch of minuses?

"Why is it that the most prudent thing to do in 2009 or 2008 or 2005 or 2003 or 2001 or 1998 or 1994 concerning the future of the Pirates always results in a major league payroll that is low and flat and uncompetitive? For 17 years, no matter who's vision, who's plan, who's talents, who's analysis has been sculpting the future of the organization, the result remains a going-through-the-motions payroll at the big-league level"? This is another false belief held by the vast majority of Pirate fans and media. A large payroll does not guarantee competitiveness. Let me state that another way...If the Pirates were suddenly bought by Mark Cuban and he declared he was going to take payroll from $40 million to $140 million by 2010, where is he getting the players worth that kind of cash? Will the Pirates suddenly be World Series contenders in 2010? The free agent market isn't like fishing in the ocean. There are very limited opportunities to sign players worthy of large contracts. Even if a Daddy Warbucks came along for this franchise and decided that there was no more payroll ceiling, it would take years to develop a winner. The core just isn't in place. And how many players are even willing to come to Pittsburgh? How many more dollars would the Pirates have had to offer CC Sabathia in order to get him to turn down the Yankees and play in Pittsburgh? How about AJ Burnett? How about (insert Grade A free agent name here)? The benefit of deep pockets is that you can keep the foundation you have built together longer. BUT YOU STILL GOTTA BUILD THE FOUNDATION THROUGH DRAFTING AND DEVELOPING. Free agency is about filling in the cracks that develop in your foundation because there just isn't enough foundation-worthy talent available every off-season. In the end, the point of my original post (way up above) wasn't that I expect the fans to agree with me...the fans want to keep Wilson and Sanchez because they are decent ballplayers, familiar faces, and great ambassadors. I really do understand that. My point was to lament that the so called 'experts' seem to have a 10 year old's understanding of how to build a winning baseball team. You want to complain about the Pirates being cheap? I'm with you...but I'm not complaining that they won't give Jack Wilson $6 mill/yr. I'm complaining that they refused to spend any money in the draft for years. I'm complaining that the franchise of Roberto Clemente didn't even have a presence in Central America for years. That's where their 'cheapness' has killed the franchise. Sadly, I would be happy if nobody ever went to another Pirate game. This ownership does not deserve ANY support. But they don't deserve it because they are at least as stupid as they are cheap. Complaining about the cheapness while ignoring the stupidity is fruitless.

We are talking about 2 different issues. Clearly, the Pirates can afford to overpay Wilson and Sanchez. Hell, they have been overpaying them for years already. I am not saying the Pirates can't afford $9 million for those 2 guys. What I'm saying is why on Earth would you spend $9 million on them when: 1. Nobody else would 2. There are cheaper alternatives of equal or better quality I get physically sick when I think about what Pirate ownership has done to this franchise over the last 2 decades. Just because they wouldn't pay Aramis Ramirez doesn't mean they should overpay for Wilson/Sanchez. Nobody seem to remember the Bonifay years when the Pirates would overpay for B grade free agents like Burnitz, Meares, Bell... I'd list more but I am getting sick again. So do you want to go back to that? How well did that work? God dammit I am NOT defending this franchise or this ownership. I haven't given them a dime in 3 years and will dance a dance of joy the day they sell. In fact, I've been criticizing it longer than anyone I know! But I know that paying above market prices for players who probably will not be productive major leaguers when the core matures (and there IS a nascient core) is dumb.

Adam Everett and Orlando Hudson sombined signed last offseason for about as much as they are offering Jack Wilson alone. There are always cheap alternatives available. If Jack Wilson thinks he is going to get more than a 2 yr, $8 mill deal from someone, they can wait until reality slaps him in the face and sign him for less.

I watch the local (Pittsburgh) nightly sports call-in shows and sit with my mouth agape that the 'experts' think the Pirates need to sign Wilson and Sanchez to long term big money deals. Am I wrong that this team should not be pouring money into decline phase league average players? Every $$$ given to these guys is $$$ not spent on scouting, drafting, and development. I don't care that the Pirates don't have major league ready replacements for them. There are always options in the offseason. Hell, they could have signed Orlando Hudson last offseason for less than the extension they offered Sanchez and Wilson. I don't know what's the more aggravating part of being a Pirate fan...having a front office willing to extend Jack Wilson for $4 mill a season or having to put up with fellow fans and media who think he is worth twice that. When does training camp open?

I think there is a bit of self entitlement at play here in the case of big market fans and media. It's as if the big market teams have a divine right to be 3 deep at every position. A-Rod goes down and suddenly Cashman is an idiot for not having an above average major league backup? The Mets start stacking injuries at several positions, but let's make fun of Minaya for signing Angel Berroa as insurance for their insurance? Most teams have enough trouble STARTING 9 better than "replacement level" players, but the big market teams are expected to be able to summon them from the bench, minors or I guess some kind of magic hat. Even if you did have the resources (money, roster space) to sign a quality backup for every position, there isn't an unlimited supply of quality major leaguers. Some mid-career starting caliber type isn't going to pass up the chance to start somewhere just to caddy for A-Rod. So you end up with fringe types on your bench, just like every other team.

I've always thought, based on personal experience and various anecdotes from others, that a minor injury not impacting function could help improve focus and thus performance. I've even heard ex-ballplaying announcers mention this. Obviously it depends on the individual/sport/injury but I think there is definitely some truth in it.

Human error? Where's the story in that? We need a story dammit. William of Ockham was one damned boring fellow.

I take half a day away from the internet and I miss the chance to post on this article while it is fresh... One of the problems in Buccoland is that the fanbase (such that it is) has no idea what an effective offense in 2009 looks like. They see players like Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson, and Adam LaRoche and think they can be the core of a division winner. In other words, the fans see outfielders with an OPS of .800 or first basemen who hit 24 home runs and think those are cornerstone type players. And I don't blame them because the Pirates haven't been competitive since before the PED/bandbox/expansion/juiced ball offensive explosion began in 1994. So if you squint, McLouth's numbers look a hell of a lot like Andy Van Slyke's numbers, Jack Wilson does a passable Jay Bell inpersonation, and Adam LaRoche might as well be Jeff King. The problem is that 2009 is a vastly different offensive environment than 1990. Mix in some impatience and a healthy and well-earned dose of skepticism and there is no wonder why these trades don't play well in Pittsburgh.

I'd like to point out that perhaps Taveras isn't slumping at all. Perhaps this is his true level.

I was thinking more about Anson's reputation as a racist.

Maybe because: 1. Corking a bat doesn't violate the law 2. Corking a bat is not effective Those would be my guesses.

You think the BBWAA is hoping the world comes to an end in 2012 and miss the ultimate chance to do some moral grandstanding? Really? There must be dozens of voters who can't wait to submit that empty ballot and then proudly announce to the world that they are protecting the sanctity of the institution that recognizes Cap Anson as one of the all time greats.

Joggin' George Hendrick? Yeah, I remember him. I was a Pirate fan, so the memories aren't fond ones. Steve Kemp, Sixto Lezcano, Amos Otis...the 80's Pirates made a habit out of acquiring these good but not great players a year too late.

Juan Pierre steroid rumor in t-minus 10...9...8...7... Seriously though, must be awfully satisfying for Pierre to stick it to his critics.

My recollection is that their waiving of Duaner Sanchez was not a baseball decision. That doesn't make it any better or any worse in my eyes. Just...different.

Actually, local media (and the fan base) has at least some culpability as they acted as enablers. Every horrible free agent signing, middling prospect, and 5 game winning streak was touted as the turning point that would send the Pirates back to .500. The start of each season would herald a series of Post-Gazette articles explaining how this would be the year the Pirates got back to a winning record. Go buy those season tickets!!! PNC Park is opening up and we'll be able to keep our free agents (as if there were any worth keeping)!!!! Meanwhile, roster decisions were based on how many more seats they'd sell when the move was pimped in the papers. Season ticket sales are declining? Jeremy Burnitz and Sean Casey are 2 guys the fans have heard of...let's throw money at them. Or Benito Santiago is a famous name, let's trade this live arm down in A ball for him, after all our fans have no idea who Leo Nunez is. Or let's draft the local kid, Neil Walker, in the first round...it'll make a great story! Of course, development of a winning team be damned. And I can't blame them because the people kept coming. Of course, it is now a different kind of crowd. Baseball is a tertiary attraction at PNC Park, trailing behind at least whatever bobblehead is given away that night (Paul Maholm anyone?) and the wonderful views of the city skyline beyond the walls. Even when they stop coming, the Pirates can turn a profit almost exclusively on revenue sharing. An entire generation of potential baseball fans in Pittsburgh has been lost by these fools. Sure, if the Buccos ever contend again they'll draw fans. But the people in the stands will be fans of entertainment, not fans of baseball. There are few people between the ages of 8 and 30 with a true passion for baseball. That is the legacy of McClatchy, Nutting, Bonifay, and Littlefield.

I'm guessing you don't know how Joe picks his all star teams. He goes for the best players, not the best 200 at bats.

Joey Votto is conjuring ghosts of Nick Esasky.

Wait. What? CFO? Aren't these guys all unemployed college drop outs blogging in their pajamas from their mothers' basements? My local newspaper said so, at least before it went out of business.

"How can anyone watch baseball anymore? It's just a bunch of cheaters roiding up to hit home runs and throw 95 mph fastballs. Hey, did you see the Steelers drafted a 6'1" 360 lb tackle who runs a 4.6 40? I'm so looking forward to the beginning of training camp." I'd love to put fist to face on those people.

I'm guessing opinions of the field are pretty binary. had obstructed view seats > hate it everyone else > love it Probably that simple.

Osandmets is right on the money and I think most people are missing the point. I loved Three Rivers Stadium not because it was beautiful or provided great views or had cheap concessions or great parking. I miss Three Rivers because that is where my dad took me to watch baseball and where I dreamt I would hit home runs and turn double plays. Isn't it the same for you and whatever your home park is? It's that simple folks. It's not that I miss a patch of astro-turf or 50,000 hard plastic seats...I miss the 8 year old me that used to sit in one of those seats staring at that astro-turf.

I have no idea why.

Here's 1.5 billion dollars....now go make something that is exactly the same as what we are demolishing. I'm not putting down the Yankees or their fans. I'm sure everyone will love the new stadium. I just wanted to point out the absurd.

"Redmond's groin responded to intense treatment..." So he's one of those kinds, eh?

You could go to minorleaguebaseball dot com and punch in the player's name for their current assignment and stats.

I've ended up with Bradley is all my leagues this year as everyone seems allergic to him. The key is to get him at a value that doesn't cripple you even if he only plays 100 games. 100 games of Bradley (with the chance for more obviously!) at $7 is still a decent bargain.

Actually, I wish less fantasy information was available. Winning my leagues has become a crap shoot in recent years because everyone has easy access to good information.

When I think of Harden, I think of the old WW2 era Bugs Bunny cartoon...you know, the one where the gremlin is hitting a massive bomb on the nose with a sledgehammer. (Or maybe I'm so old that nobody else around here has any idea what I'm talking about.) Every swing of the sledgehammer is analogous to every pitch Harden throws.

In order for such an analysis to be helpful, we need to know what an expected "Just Enough" home run percentage is for a player (not discussed here), especially in the context of the ballpark. So we'd need a much larger sample size and would probably need several seasons worth of data to normalize for variable prevailing wind patterns, just for starters. This really is a fascinating article and I love new ways to look at data, but I'm afraid this is beyond my acceptible level of diminishing return, unless someone is willing to pay me to play fantasy baseball! But I loved the article all the same and I'm sure some folks are willing to go the extra mile.

I'm afraid John's baseball sources have a little 'splainin to do.

Here's a data point...I live within 15 minutes of a major league ballpark and work within walking distance of it. I subscribe to BP, buy the annual, and read just about everything I can get my hands on about baseball. Yet I attended only 1 game (free ticket) and watched fewer than 20 innings on TV. Neither decision was driven by the price of admission. That's partially a product of my refusal to hand over cash to the Pirates and partially a product of having 3 kids under age 4. But I've often thought I must watch less MLB than any other BP subscriber.

I've heard this argument time and time again...especially from the hate-Manny-first crowd. I can't believe anyone thinks that Dustin Pedroia gets to fewer ground balls or Mike Lowell swings at more sliders in the dirt or Josh Beckett loses 2 MPH off his fastball because Manny Ramirez is standing in left field. It just doesn't work that way. If there are players who would be spooked by playing alongside Manny, they probably didn't have the personal drive to make it in the bigs in the first place. If you can't hit a curveball because you don't get along with a co-worker, then I suggest you are the one with the problem, not the co-worker.

It\'s better than The Pink Panther 2 with Steve Martin? Whoa Nellie... this must be quite a book!

So was I and it seems to have not been obvious.

Maybe I\'m the only one who thinks it a bit odd that nobody is spilling ink over one of the biggest names in management getting busted for bonus skimming, yet everyone is freaking out over the revelations that a player was breaking a rule to improve his play. Bud might need to release some more names if this thing with Bowden blows up.

PLEASE DO NOT AVERT YOUR EYES FROM AROD!!! STEROIDS!!! STEROIDS!!!!

If Juan Cruz was represented by Scott Boras, and Boras was the one suggesting these alternative solutions, who wants to bet this would be getting a different treatment in the mass-audience baseball press?

The Diamondbacks are willing to trade Eric Byrnes. In unrelated news, I\'ve got a rusted-out 1984 Plymouth Reliant-K misfiring on 2 cylindars that I am willing to trade.

I was thinking more \"The End of the Innocence\".

I\'m all for the need for shades of grey, which was sort of my point.

I\'m with you. Neither statement is true. And in the rapidly changing landscape of PED, neither statement is relevant 6 years later. However, Will is saying that it\'s important for us to understand that 94% of the players were \"absolutely clean.\" Although I know it wasn\'t Will\'s intent, statements like provide additional justification for the demonization of the Bonds and A-Rods in the game who have already been convicted in the court of public opinion. I don\'t believe for a second that only 6% of the playing population is absolutely clean. And frankly, I don\'t care. I\'m beyond arguing with my friends that PEDs have been around for 50+ years and Babe Ruth\'s numbers were put up with the help of performance enhancing segregation. America\'s favorite pastime is neither baseball, football, nor politics...it\'s the witch-hunt.

Which of these statements has more truthiness? 1. 94% of players are completely clean. 2. 6% of players are habitual PED users. Obviously, neither statement is completely true. But which is more true? I\'d have to think statement 2.

I want to know which prospects Pecota missed on. Is there some kind of pattern to the hits and misses?

I suppose the bit about how to fix the Pirates was WAY too long for the purposes of this article.

I\'m not so sure Pecota would take one on the chin, unless you can find at least a handful of scouts who think Weiters is gonna disappoint.

Who would you rather have for your franchise? Matt Weiters or Justin Upton?

But what about Daniel Moskos?? Pirates fans WANT TO KNOW ABOUT DANIEL MOSKOS! He must be even better, since we drafted him right before Weiters, right? RIGHT??? Just shoot me now.

Well that settles one question for me...Kyle Suire will never get my Hall of Fame vote!!!

An outfielder in hand is worth 2 in the bush leagues.

Kent\'s numbers are right there...but was he FEARED?

Consensus seems to be that R.Zimmerman has pretty much topped out at the plate. Do you see any room for growth there? I had hopes he would be a perennial .300/.370/500 guy and he is still pretty young.

One could argue that every player who has been elected to the HOF has been elected in his final year of elligibility, since of course, once elected they are no longer on the ballot.

It was a very good article. I just thought we were done with it. Of course, there is little else to write about right now.

Hey look! A HOF article! This is digging up a dead horse just to beat it again. (Please don\'t take this to mean I don\'t appreciate the effort or the article, I just can\'t wait until pitchers and catchers report and we can start talking about things that really matter, like Pedro Alvarez\'s weight.)

A fantasy baseball article about defense? My brain...it asploded.

In just about every story I\'ve read that tries to justify Rice\'s HOF election, the point is made that he put up those numbers in the pre-steroid era. But were performance enhancing drugs really more prevalent in 2008 or 1978? I know, it seems like a dumb question on the surface, but it\'s an honest question. But what do you make of the stories that greenies were passed around like pez or that they were available in a big bowl in the middle of the lockerroom back in the day? Just asking because I think one reason Jim Rice got elected was because he was viewed as a \'clean\' power candidate on the ballot. Same reason Dawson goes in next year while McGwire will continue to wait.

Does that language sound venomous to you? I see some hyperbole and a little snark, but no venom.

LOL. I said, \"Maybe I\'m mistaked.\" Let\'s call that typo a little memorial for our outgoing President.

An awful lot of venom? Ugly and disrespectful? I believe Tom Verducci referred to it as a \"sabremetric jihad.\" Maybe I\'m mistaked but I don\'t recall Joe or anyone here in the comments making personal attacks against Jim Rice. In fact, I found Verducci\'s remark a bit disrespectful. Maybe some folks see a moral equivalence between pointing out Tim Raines\' WARP3 and mass murder.

Football too (assuming Jake Delhomme is your QB)

Rice was the sort of player who looked a lot better if you experienced his career through the back of his baseball card. And since that\'s how most of the voters experienced his career, he got in. It\'s hard to get past the triple crown stats to the defense/obp/double plays when you don\'t actually get to see the guy play all that often. With the modern coverage the game gets, 162 televised games per team, and 24 hour ESPN highlight cycle, it will be much harder for a player like Rice to get in.

I see what you did there.

For the 1 millionth time...I\'d love to hear a Rice voter try to justify a vote for Rice while not even giving Albert Belle a 2nd thought. They were the same player, except Belle was half a measure better. (And neither would be in my HOF.) Oh, I guess Rice did play for the Red Sox. That\'s worth a bunch of votes at least.

Please don\'t mention the name Danny Moskos when I\'m eating my cereal. I just sprayed it all over the kitchen table.

I uh...just don\'t get Elvis Costello. I really really don\'t. Different strokes/different folks I guess.

That\'s probably still a good idea.

Yup...these latest admissions are validation for the BBWAA...not for the newly admitted. For them, no further validation was needed.

I guess I don\'t understand why anyone would want this recognition. BP certainly doesn\'t need BBWAA to validate the quality of work being published. But congratulations all the same.

If you see Dave Littlefield with a cup in his hand in the alley next to your hotel, give him a quarter. On second thought, don\'t. He\'d just trade it for a dime anyway.

Why can\'t an article like this get posted here? No room for different opinions or approaches? Hive mentality gets boring after awhile.

I\'d love to hear the argument from folks who vote \'Yes\' on Rice but don\'t give Albert Belle a second glance. I don\'t think either should get in, imho.

What he said.

You can still root for Lehigh.

I\'d like to vote \'no\' on the Chicago pizza feed... just because I hate group-think.

Yeah. Thanks for keeping Tyler Yates on the field guys.

PIRATES: Plan? What\'s a plan?

If a large part of your staff is either not yet through the injury nexus or unproven at the major league level, why not keep the stockpile? It\'s not as if the Rays offense can\'t grow organically.

I would be stunned if Parra developed Crawford power. He\'s a 4th outfielder in the end. This might be an obscure comp, but I see him as an RJ Reynolds type player.

Actually, I believe Malkin was runner up for the Hart last year. Crosby missed to much time to be runner up to anything.

Still better than Fox coverage.

You ascribe far too great an efficiency to your \'filtering system.\' How many potential professional pitchers never made it because they were developed as position players? I don\'t know, but I would guess there are at least a few. A 16 year old with the potential to pitch at the major league level will have a much harder time getting there if that potential is not identified by his high school coach. Also, compared to basketball, swimming, and um, jockeying(?), size has much less of an impact on the success or failure of an individual in baseball. Therefore, other factors dominate height in the Darwinian process.

There very well may be a bias against short pitchers at the professional level, however I think the bias at the amateur level has much greater impact on the number of short pitchers we see at the professional/major league level. How many hard throwing \'short\' 14 year olds, showing up for their first day of high school practice, get a chance to develop on the mound? It\'s more likely that they are ushered to the middle infield (assuming they are athletic) or given shin-guards and a mask.

Seems to me that Alvarez can void the $1.63 mill contract and opt for arbitration, not free agency. That would have been his right anyway.