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Roundtable: Fantasy Roundtable

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday May 01, 2013 9:30 PM ET Fantasy Roundtable roundtable.
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Bret Sayre (6:34:17 PM PT): Helloooooo, Internet! Good to see you all.

Bret Sayre (6:36:14 PM PT): Helloooooo, Internet! Good to see you all.

Jason Collette (6:37:27 PM PT): Chris (St. Louis): Will any of you be at the Busch Stadium event?

I am going to try to pull that one off. I have to be in central IL for my job that entire following week so I may be able to leverage the plane ride up to do that as I've never been to that park.

Paul Sporer (6:38:10 PM PT): I'm also going to attempt to make it to the StL event.

Paul Sporer (6:38:56 PM PT): Mark (Washington DC): Sale and Carlos Santana for Braun in a dynasty league. Who wins?

I think it's pretty fair. Not sure there is a clear winner. I think it's a nice return for Braun.

Paul Sporer (6:40:46 PM PT): Rockford (The Hills): Why is Dusty Baker hesitant to give Mesoraco more AB's. His swing looks good lately, but we see Corky Miller play every other day. Really??

Dusty loves his veterans!

Bret Sayre (6:40:46 PM PT): Dee Ess (Camlachie, ON): I'm in a 20-team dynasty league with 20 man minor league rosters. Jimmy Nelson is looking really good for the Brewers in AA ball and I'm thinking of scooping him up before anyone else does (since he is sitting unclaimed). What are your thoughts on him? And, who should I dump on my minor league roster to get him - (Allen Webster, Rubby, Domingo Tapia, Victor Sanchez, Miguel Almonte, Mauricio Cabrera, Duane Underwood, Dillon Maples.) Thanks, as always.

In a league where 400 minor leaguers are rostered, Nelson should definitely be owned. He may not be a top-100 level guy, since his ceiling isn't super high, but he's close, he's performing well and above all, he keeps the ball on the ground (which I love). I'd drop Underwood for him.

Mike Gianella (6:41:08 PM PT): Hey all. How you doing?

Paul Sporer (6:42:57 PM PT): Swingingbunts (NY): Do you see Machado getting any playing time at SS this season?

Only if Hardy gets hurt, which isn't exactly out of the realm.

Jason Collette (6:43:09 PM PT): Wayne (Toronto): Brandon Maurer seems to have nicely rebounded from 2 bad starts and seem to be improving each start. Given his home park, is he a good bet to both stay in the rotation and oerform at least adequately going forward?

Until Maurer figures out lefties, he's a risk in the rotation. He has been pounded by lefties this season.

Paul Sporer (6:44:00 PM PT): Brian (Memphis): What's wrong with Matt Cain?

Home runs.

Josh Shepardson (6:44:22 PM PT): Hi everyone.

Paul Sporer (6:45:12 PM PT): Briquettes (Minnesota): Best guess on Valverde's relationship with the Tigers for this year and beyond?

Closer the rest of the year. No idea beyond, really depends how Al-Al, Rondon, Villarreal, etc... develop. And of course how he does. If Valverde dominates, then things change.

Josh Shepardson (6:45:43 PM PT): Hi everyone.

Jason Collette (6:46:10 PM PT): Brian (Memphis): What's wrong with Matt Cain?

All of the years of avoiding his FIP are catching up to him all at once? 1 of every 5 flyballs are leaving the yard - an absurd rate compared to his career norms. Velo is down a tad, but not much. Stay the course

Paul Singman (6:46:42 PM PT): Good Evening, all!

Bret Sayre (6:46:52 PM PT): buddons42 (Detroit): Josh Donaldson: Riding an early season hot streak or hitting with a better approach and likely to have improved, if not quite THIS good, results going forward? Basically wondering if he's a viable starter in 12 team mixed going forward, making my injury prone Ryan Zimmerman expendable for pitching help?

I'm going with option 2. He has reduced his strikeout rate in every stint with the A's, and it's sitting at 14% right now. He can seriously hit .280 with 20 HR and 10 SB this year. It is a hot streak, but he's a legitimately valuable player and a worthy starter in a 12 team mixed league.

Paul Singman (6:47:00 PM PT): wes (nyc): Cashner or Maholm in 10-tm with K/9, QS and no Wins?

With K/9 and no wins, I'll give Cashner the edge.

Josh Shepardson (6:47:03 PM PT): Paul nailed it on the Cain comment. Too many taters, he'll be fine.

Bret Sayre (6:47:42 PM PT): I'm going to break the rules here, as I know I get a lot of questions about him. What do you guys think of Josh Donaldson and how real or not real his April performance has been?

Jason Collette (6:47:45 PM PT): Dan (Minnesota ): Is there any trade value in F Rodney?

Sure, if the Rays can get him into games. He looks fine, but he is getting irregular work because they're either winning big or losing big. Fewer close games so far whereas they're playing more catchup than protecting leads

Jason Collette (6:49:02 PM PT): Grayson (Milwaukee): Would you buy low on Kipnis?

I would -- he's at least running right now when he is on base. If Francona is going to let him run like this, that bodes well once he starts getting on base more

Paul Singman (6:49:14 PM PT): Mark (Washington DC): Sale and Carlos Santana for Braun in a dynasty league. Who wins?

Not a bad haul, but I'm still taking the Braun side.

Mike Gianella (6:49:31 PM PT): Joe (Seattle): I traded Yu Darvish for Prince Fielder in a keeper league where I had strong pitching. Good trade?

Good trade if it fits your needs. Fielder doesn't run but otherwise is a top tier guy. Owners always ask if a trade is good based on which player is better. But YOU know your team. Trade based on your needs once the season starts, not based on what your preseason rankings tell you.

Jason Collette (6:49:36 PM PT): Rockford (The Hills): Why is Dusty Baker hesitant to give Mesoraco more AB's. His swing looks good lately, but we see Corky Miller play every other day. Really??

Dusty loves his veterans....and his catchers that play good defense. Mesoraco is neither

Jason Collette (6:51:13 PM PT): RotoLando (Cloud City): The Mariners, man. Jeez. Is it too early to get in on the youngsters Nick Franklin, Brad Miller and Stefen Romero for some MI points this year?

It is....teams that worry about service time should keep their guys down until at least June 4th. Nick Franklin got a little bit of a late start due to an illness but I really like him. One of the best minor league interviews I've done at the AFL - kid has a super attitude.

Paul Singman (6:51:27 PM PT): Garcia (Flowmont): Are the Mets almost out of outfielders to try before they finally give the position to Jordany Valdespin?

Yeah, it's been frustrating. I think his at-bats start to climb up going forward though.

Josh Shepardson (6:51:59 PM PT): RotoLando (Cloud City) Is there any reason to keep holding onto Micah Owings? Its a deep dynasty league, but still...

I don't think there is any reason to hold onto him. He's a first baseman with a limited ceiling that's 30 years old at this point.

Mike Gianella (6:52:48 PM PT): adfeit (brooklyn): I have crazy SP depth due to a recent trade - Darvish, Dickey, Latos, Medlen, Samardzija, Cingrani, Hellickson, Burnett, and Greinke on the DL.

Who are the most “marketable” of these guys in a keeper league (keep 7, cost increases annually)? How many of them would I have to package together to make a play for Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Starting pitchers are hard to trade for full value, and Harper and Trout are difficult players to get in a keeper unless you're dumping. Hellickson, Samardzija, Medlen and Latos are probably the marketable guys based on age, but without knowing salaries/contracts, I'm just guessing. I think you'd have to trade at least 2 of these guys to get Trout/Harper but maybe 3 if you really want them. If you own a cheap Trout/Harper and it's not a dump deal, what's your incentive to move these guys?

Paul Sporer (6:53:30 PM PT): Dan (Minnesota): Is Moore a top 10 pitcher?

No, not after a month. Especially with a 12.2% BB rate. Love the 31% K though.

Bret Sayre (6:53:57 PM PT): mattpearce13 (Delaware): Hey guys, your thoughts on shelby miller? Innings cap?

Love Shelby Miller and think that next year he'll be viewed as a top-30 starter. He threw nearly 155 innings between the regular season and playoffs last year, so while an innings cap may come into play, it's unlikely to affect him before mid-Septemnber at the earliest.

Josh Shepardson (6:54:04 PM PT): RotoLando (Cloud City) Is there any reason to keep holding onto Micah Owings? Its a deep dynasty league, but still...

I don't think there is any reason to hold onto him. He's a first baseman with a limited ceiling that's 30 years old at this point.

Paul Singman (6:54:06 PM PT): LoyalRoyal (Kansas): Thanks for chat: Struggling players: Reddick for Espinosa? Thoughts...

Espinosa I'm starting to cut ties with. Very likely he "gets hurt" soon. And he's delaying surgery already. Reddick will likely get hot a some point, but I don't see him batting over.250 for the year.

Mike Gianella (6:55:40 PM PT): John: Toronto Since Adam Jones tends to get off to hot starts, would now be a good time to sell high?

If you can trade Jones for a top-tier talent based on his fast start sure, why not? But Jones has moved past being a second-tier guy and is nearly a top-tier talent by himself. Can you get a Joey Votto or a Miguel Cabrera for Jones? If you can, go for it. Otherwise, any trade you make is probably going to be a lateral or incremental move. Jones is a guy I'm building around, not "selling high" on.

Paul Singman (6:56:05 PM PT): Marc (LA): I'm tied for last place in steals, how long do I hold onto Ben Revere in a 14 team mixed league and hope he returns to form?

He's concerning, but not worth cutting unless the Phils cut his PT more.

Bret Sayre (6:56:06 PM PT): Chris (St. Louis): Have Jose Fernandez in a keeper league, and he just won't be a keeper for me due to the rest of my roster. Do you think he'll be effective enough the rest of this year to hold on to or should I be looking on the wire for someone else? Have him both a 10 and 12 team mixed league.

If you know for a fact that he won't be a keeper, I'd let him go in a 10 or 12 team mixed league. He's just not going to go deep enough into games or the season to hold value pitching in front of that awful team. His future is extremely bright though..

Jason Collette (6:56:31 PM PT): Matt Moore isn't a top 10 pitcher, neither is Clay Buchholz but both are fun to own right now.

Jason Collette (6:57:09 PM PT): Mark (Washington DC): Sale and Carlos Santana for Braun in a dynasty league. Who wins?

The guy getting the battery duo

Josh Shepardson (6:57:13 PM PT): Chris (St. Louis) Have Jose Fernandez in a keeper league, and he just won't be a keeper for me due to the rest of my roster. Do you think he'll be effective enough the rest of this year to hold on to or should I be looking on the wire for someone else? Have him both a 10 and 12 team mixed league.

In a 10 teamer I wouldn't hesitate to cut him at some point this season, but in a 12 teamer I'd try to trade him to someone who isn't as well positioned with keepers as you are.

Bret Sayre (6:59:00 PM PT): John (AZ): What is different now, if anything, than five years ago when it comes to building a winning fantasy team?

I know it's been talked about by Paul and Jason on the podcast, among other places, but the biggest difference is that power is far more scarce now than it was five years ago. You need to buy it early and often if you want to compete in those categories. Also, with strikeouts being up across the league substantially, you need to make sure you have a high-K pitcher or two to stay competitive. Five years ago, you could put together a staff of decent strikeout guys and be middle of the pack. Today, with those same type of guys, you're a bottom dweller.

Paul Singman (6:59:05 PM PT): fabiopao (Italy): Hi there, worrying about Putz here. Matt Reynolds is doing great, but could he be first in line for the job if this becomes available? thanks

Reynolds could get saves, but I'd rank the replacements: Hernandez, Reynols, Heath Bell

Jason Collette (7:00:09 PM PT): John (Toronto): Since Adam Jones tends to get off to hot starts, would now be a good time to sell high?

This sounds risky, but I'd try to flip him for his older twin brother, B.J. Upton. Upton has been a better second half player in his career, particularly in August and September in recent seasons.

Josh Shepardson (7:00:13 PM PT): Mark (Washington DC): Sale and Carlos Santana for Braun in a dynasty league. Who wins?

I love the lack of agreement from all of us. I'd probably prefer Braun, but it's really close. The fact that none of us are calling one side a slam dunk winner speaks volumes about how fair the deal is.

Mike Gianella (7:01:14 PM PT): eamuscatuli15 (neb): I'm wondering about the best book, articles, etc. out there for setting up a league? i enjoy the league i'm in this year with friends/acquaintances for good money but i would like to play another style league next year. You guys write a lot about auction style leagues so that's intriguing. Best way to go about starting up a league and what styles do you guys prefer?

I'm an auction/roto guy. I know Jason and Paul like Roto and Bret's a dynasty guy. If you can find the original Rotisserie league book, that lays out the rules, but at this point you can also go to the Tout Wars (www.toutwars.com) web site and get a solid framework for the rules.

Jason Collette (7:01:17 PM PT): adfeit (Brooklyn): I have crazy SP depth due to a recent trade - Darvish, Dickey, Latos, Medlen, Samardzija, Cingrani, Hellickson, Burnett, and Greinke on the DL. Who are the most “marketable” of these guys in a keeper league (keep 7, cost increases annually)? How many of them would I have to package together to make a play for Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

You should be selling Cingrani like crazy right now - strike the iron while it is hot. Trading for Harper would be silly right now the way he's playing; Trout may be slightly more attainable but I don't care how much depth you have, don't do it.

Jason Collette (7:02:05 PM PT): Joe (Seattle): I traded Yu Darvish for Prince Fielder in a keeper league where I had strong pitching. Good trade?

Good deal - both guys hot right now but Fielder is going to be the better $$ guy the rest of the season, IMO

Josh Shepardson (7:02:18 PM PT): Joe (Seattle) This format is crazy! Thanks for doing it! How long do you guys expect Carlos Santana to maintain catcher eligibility? I've heard talk of him moving later on, he's a stud at the C position!

Being proactive can be good, but I wouldn't be too worried about him making the move just yet. I'll add that the lower the games played threshold for earning the eligibility, the less concerned I am about an eventual move.

Mike Gianella (7:05:12 PM PT): loebbaka (tuscon, az): Pitching strategy help! My 4x4 roto team is last in era and whip. Staff is Chapman plus 4th starter types like Gee, Lilly, Francis, Estrada. How best to recover? Thx.

Can you reserve SP or do you have cut guys if you don't want them? If you can rotate guys in and out, try to play match-ups. Because you've already dug a hole, it's tough to tell you to simply go mostly relievers; you'd wind up dead in all the pitching categories as opposed to ERA/WHIP. You're probably going to have to make a trade and be aggressive on the FAAB/free agent wires. Good luck.

Josh Shepardson (7:06:01 PM PT): Tom (Cleveland) Giving up on Cashner?

Nope. It was a bad start tonight, but it's just one start. I should add I'm also sometimes stubborn.

Paul Sporer (7:06:28 PM PT): John in AZ, in addition to Bret's fantastic answer, there are also no more sleepers or buy-low, sell-high... which is another of way saying there is no real unknown information. That's not where the edge is now.

Jason Collette (7:06:39 PM PT): phish66 (Chicago): I'm growing impatient with Josh Hamilton in 10-team h2h league. If he's not going 1-21 one week, he's only hitting singles the next. What's his value going forward? Does he bounce back or does his downward trend since end of last year continue, and will not being in Texas affect his power numbers throughout the season?

Misery loves company. I was thrilled getting him for $25 in Tout Wars and now I think I overpaid by $20. It's all on him to stop chasing crap out of the zone.

Bret Sayre (7:07:24 PM PT): oloughla (Boston): Any good buy low 1b? Eric Hosmer just isn't cutting it for me right now.

I like Eric Hosmer as a buy low, and you probably wouldn't have to give up much (or anything) to get him. But if you want an outside alternative, you could always try to catch lightning in a bottle with Mark Reynolds or buy low on Adrian Gonzalez.

Mike Gianella (7:08:40 PM PT): thebearproofsuit (LA): Turned down his BJ Upton for my Cingrani/Kubel in a 14 team mixed H2H keeper league....am I nuts? Cingrani would be $2 next year and $3 the year after, then back into the draft pool. The chance of a $15-20 pitcher for that price seemed like too much to give up. Upton's near 30% IFFB rate makes me think his slow start is not all just bad luck.

Lot depends on how keepers are valued in your league. In my leagues, Cingrani at $2-3 is a dump chip that you can trade for Upton plus something else. If your league's dump culture isn't that crazy, then I think you might have sold yourself short by not taking the deal. Upton's going to bounce back at some point and Kubel's more of a complimentary player in mixed than a guy to build around. Cingrani is going to slip eventually in the short-term. You might have lost out here. Regarding the IFFB% rate, that's high, but it seems like small sample size noise, even if the IFFB% is going to be higher this year.

Josh Shepardson (7:08:59 PM PT): Dave (Boston) Does Joyce still platoon? Even in May?! Him or Quentin in OPS lg?

Yeah, he still sits regularly against southpaws. I'd rather have Quentin in an OPS league. FWIW, I own and play matchups with Joyce in a non-traditional league that counts OBP and SLG, so he does have value if used correctly.

Mike Gianella (7:09:37 PM PT): Totally agree with Paul Sporer on the buy low/sell high thing. It's the same as the "sleeper" concept. As soon as someone is identified as a buy low/sell high or a sleeper, he isn't.

Paul Singman (7:09:38 PM PT): riverz (colorado): So last year I had a couple teams in the top half of my two leagues and did ok on steals. this year I decided to draft with an eye towards home runs instead and that's going ok. but both years i've done poorly in batting average. is that worth trying to do better at? how do I improve this category?

I generally try to draft more for the category juice guys than for average. But don't underrate players like Alex Gordon, Melky, Torii Hunter that get lots of at-bats and will bring your average up. Can't take the Carlos Gomez with every pick.

Paul Singman (7:12:05 PM PT): diddy (minneapolis): What do you guys think about trading Fernando Rodney for someone like marte is that reasonable or worth it I'm thin in outfield

If you've got an extra closer, Marte is a solid return for one. People are generally against trading for closers this early.

Mike Gianella (7:12:20 PM PT): Tim (Loyola): Are all of the members of the fantasy team answering each question?

No, but there are a lot of multiple answers.

Paul Singman (7:13:01 PM PT): Rockford (The Hills): Why is Dusty Baker hesitant to give Mesoraco more AB's. His swing looks good lately, but we see Corky Miller play every other day. Really??

Never look for the logic in a Dusty decision.

Mike Gianella (7:14:17 PM PT): wendtm (Chicago): Can trade Delmon for Wandy - I need another starter. Bit concerned about his dropping K rate. Whaddya think?

The dropping K rate bothers me a little but I think it's a fair trade given each player's skills/abilities. I'm assuming this is an N.L.-only. You lose this trade if Delmon is going to play every day, but I'm not sold that he will. If you need the arm and can move the bat, this is fair.

Josh Shepardson (7:14:45 PM PT): Davis Mattek (Salina, Kansas) Do any of you guys play the Daily Fantasy Baseball games?

Yup, I do. They are fun. I love to take advantage of lefty mashers when they are facing a southpaw, they often are great values in terms of price.

Jason Collette (7:14:55 PM PT): dave (boston): Does Joyce still platoon? Even in May?! Him or Quentin in OPS lg?

Yes, he does. He rarely sees LH playing time, but that helps his batting average and OBP. I'd take him over Quentin, who can't be trusted.....and is a jerk for hurting my Greinke!

Mike Gianella (7:15:12 PM PT): Wow, Cliff Pennington nailed that ball. Oh, Timmah.

Paul Singman (7:15:22 PM PT): oloughla (Boston): Any good buy low 1b? Eric Hosmer just isn't cutting it for me right now.

I'm confident Allen Craig and Billy Butler will turn things around sooner than later.

Bret Sayre (7:15:43 PM PT): Nick (Kansas): Josh Hamilton's line at AS break and end of year?

.257/.319/.454 - he's frustrating as hell to own, but let's not bury the guy yet.

Mike Gianella (7:16:36 PM PT): Dave (Pembroke, MA): 10 team, 5x5, AL-only, keeper league. I am plagued with injuries (Reyes, Granderson, Youkilis, Bourjos, Pineda) so my DL and bench slots are full. I'd like to pick up some replacement players but I've got Jarrod Parker benched until he comes around, so I don't have a lot of room to maneuver. The obvious guy to cut (at least to me) is Pineda but he's a potential three year keeper at only $11 so I'm hesitant. Should I cut bait or is there still some ace potential here?

I think you can cut Pineda. $11 is a high price for a guy with a lot of possible outcomes. Will you regret it? Maybe. But if there's no trade market for Pineda at $11, that's probably your answer.

Josh Shepardson (7:19:04 PM PT): Well that's understandable, Mike. Cliff Pennington is a stud at the dish.

Mike Gianella (7:19:38 PM PT): Worthwhile (Illinois): Is Brandon Crawford for real? I have the opportunity to trade him now, but I won't if he's going to stay close to his current track.

He's not going to maintain at this level, but the pop in his bat probably isn't a complete illusion. I could see 15 HR from Crawford by season's end. If you are going to trade him, that's probably what you should be looking at in terms of return.

Paul Singman (7:19:59 PM PT): rustbucket (ontario): Thanks for the opportunity. Who gets more ABs this year, Billy Hamilton or Christian Yelich?

The Marins are unpredictable but I think we see some Hamilton in September for sure. Yelich maybe not.

Bret Sayre (7:20:01 PM PT): AMetsGuy (Boston): Can you rank these four for the rest of the season? Are there any major gaps between them? Ryan Dempster, Brett Anderson, Kris Medlen, Josh Johnson, Alex Cobb, and Marco Estrada.

JJ, Dempster, Cobb, Medlen, Anderson, Estrada. No major gaps, as I don't think any of them are top-30 starters. JJ has the best chance to be an impact starter of this whole group, but he's been unreliable so far.

Paul Sporer (7:21:57 PM PT): I think there is a substantial gap between Medlen and then Anderson/Estrada. Anderson can't stay healthy and might be the most overrated start in the game.

Josh Shepardson (7:21:57 PM PT): Worthwhile (Illinois): Is Brandon Crawford for real? I have the opportunity to trade him now, but I won't if he's going to stay close to his current track.

Mike pretty much nailed this, but I'd also suggest checking out Ian Miller's article at McCovey Chronicles. http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/4/29/4282254/brandon-crawford-analysis

Bret Sayre (7:22:14 PM PT): RotoLando (Cloud City): Which 1B would you target in a dynasty league if you knew you weren't going to be in the hunt until 2016?

Dan Vogelbach. But you knew I'd say that, didn't you?

Mike Gianella (7:23:17 PM PT): robertmcgough (Denver): LaRoche is off to one of his notoriously slow starts. I'm pretty stacked at 1B (Pujols, C. Davis, Howard)...should I consider dropping Howard for LaRoche,who just went on waivers? Or should I consider dropping one of my OF's (C. Davis, Beltran, Morse, McLouth, Willingham, De Aza, Granderson) and stashing him until he heats up? 10 team league, 5OF, 1B, CI slots. Or should I just leave it be?

I like LaRoche better than Howard. I'm not sold on Howard returning to a 30 HR guy, so if he's "only" a 20-25 HR guy, you're gaining on BA with LaRoche all other things being equal. But then there's the health question about Howard. I think he'll stay on the field, but I do wonder if the post-surgery Howard is going to be diminished somewhat. As far as those other guys you have, McLouth would be the guy to drop. I'm Ok with dropping either for LaRoche. I think he picks it up again.

Bret Sayre (7:23:55 PM PT): temple (madison ): If I could draft two of these guys for my dynasty keeper points league, do 2 of them stand out above the rest. Jackie Bradley, Corey Seager, adalberto Mondesi, david dahl, Lewis brinson, and delino deshields

Depends on how heavy SB are valued, but likely Dahl and DeShields, with Mondesi and Bradley on their tails.

Josh Shepardson (7:24:06 PM PT): Matt (NYC): Should I be worried about Gallardo? K% is way down, and he's in the bottom 25% of qualified starters in K-BB%. Swinging strikes are down, and velocity is down.

I thankfully don't own him in any leagues, which is weird because I've always been a fan of Gallardo in fantasy. I'm not actively pursuing him as a buy low in any leagues either, because I am concerned about the combination of all of these things.

Paul Singman (7:25:22 PM PT): Joe (Seattle): I traded Yu Darvish for Prince Fielder in a keeper league where I had strong pitching. Good trade?

I'll take the hitter there.

Bret Sayre (7:25:38 PM PT): Freddy (L'ville): Now the question on a lot of minds that you guys hear a 1,000 times. What do yo see as the time frame for Tavares, Myers, and Profar making it to the big leagues?

Profar will be up on May 23rd. Myers will be up on June 2nd. Taveras will be up on July 5th.

Paul Singman (7:26:25 PM PT): Abnergreen (Puerto Rico ): What does a stat line from Carlos Gomez & Matt Adams look like in 2016, and what should i ask in return for Carlos Gomez in a Dynasty League, my contending window is in 2016

Jeez, I'm just trying to figure out what I'm gonna wear tomorrow.

Jason Collette (7:27:13 PM PT): Alex (Anaheim): How much playing time do you expect Gattis to receive once McCann returns?

Little. He becomes a Sunday catcher and a Thursday sub somewhere

Mike Gianella (7:27:27 PM PT): randolph3030 (Jersey (the new one)): This off-season I chose to keep Jay Bruce instead of Matt Moore or Mad Max. I think I ruined my chance at a dynasty with this mistake and it haunts me every time I look at my team. It's kind of like getting a bad song stuck in your head, everything else is tainted by the sound of Call Me Maybe. I have a trick for getting a song out of my head (sing it like Bob Dylan at his most nasal)...any mind tricks for being able to move past this horrible decision and get back on track? I'm like a poker player on tilt right now.

Now Call Me Maybe is in MY head...thanks a lot for that Randolph. There's nothing you can do about a bad decision save to move forward. I play in deep leagues and this week I benched Ryan Raburn in one AL-only and Scott Feldman in an NL-only. As Lorraine Bracco said in Good Fellas, "you don't know how I feel." You gotta get past it. If it makes you feel any better, the power will come with Bruce and you should get a solid return on your investment.

Bret Sayre (7:27:51 PM PT): Paul, you're going to wear a pair of nicely tailored jeans with a light blue Teenage Fanclub t-shirt and white on white Chuck Taylors.

Josh Shepardson (7:27:55 PM PT): Bret, that's a silly answer. Everyone knows that Taveras will be up on July 4th to put on a fireworks display against the Angels. #AndBoomGoesTheDynamite

Mike Gianella (7:28:08 PM PT): What are you wearing tomorrow, Paul Singman?

Bret Sayre (7:30:24 PM PT): Oscar Taveras will be playing AMERICA in the 2013 version of Independence Day.

Mike Gianella (7:30:27 PM PT): Adrock (Here and There): I'm in a 12-team AL-only dynasty league, standard settings and categories. My team is quite strong, but I have no closers, or even prospective closers. I'd prefer not to totally punt the category, but I've been wondering how hard to go after a second tier closer this early. What would be approximate value for Chris Perez(FA)? Jason Hammel ($10)? Zach McAllister($1)? Or am I likely to have to give up a position player of some value? Thanks!

Hammel for Perez seems fair. At $1, I'd hang onto McAllister in a keeper.

Jason Collette (7:30:27 PM PT): wendtm (Chicago): Can trade Delmon for Wandy - I need another starter. Bit concerned about his dropping K rate. Whaddya think?

I would rather have my ex-wife than Delmon Young. If you have him and get some form of value, do so.

Paul Singman (7:30:37 PM PT): Tom (Cleveland): Giving up on Cashner?

Not so long as he's in Petco. Hopefully he stops aggressively stealing second base the few times he's on base.

Mike Gianella (7:30:52 PM PT): Can we start a movement to call Zach McAllister "The Sea Captain"?

Jason Collette (7:31:10 PM PT): oh, and drop Jake McGee down 26 spots on any "future closer lists" ..... guy is a one-pitch guy and has lost command of that pitch this season.

Bret Sayre (7:31:45 PM PT): Willy (A): It seems Brandon Beachy is a little ahead of schedule. Do you see that as a positive or does that make you a bit leery?

Everyone's ahead of schedule until they're not. Don't buy into it, continue to assume that he'll be back after the break.

Paul Singman (7:32:41 PM PT): Mike Gianella (7:30:52 PM PT): Can we start a movement to call Zach McAllister "The Sea Captain"?

Aye, aye.

Josh Shepardson (7:33:10 PM PT): John (CT): Whats' with Josh Hamilton? How can his performancejust fall off the table so dramatically? He appears to be healthy. The ballpark may be tougher but can't be the reason in total. Think something else is going on here?

Forget the ballpark, Hamilton's problem is that he swings at EVERYTHING (the caps were necessary).

Mike Gianella (7:33:31 PM PT): Cory (Canada): Hi all, in a ten team mixed keeper where I'm hurting for hitting, how would you rank McLouth, Donaldson Arenado, and Duda? I'm second in steals so I'd rather lean towards any production in other areas but McLouth is tempting, after reading Jason's piece yesterday.

Hello, neighbor to the North! I'd probably go Arenado, McLouth, Duda and Donaldson in a keeper. I don't necessarily think Arenado will earn the most of those four but in a keeper I'd take him over those guys for the ceiling. If you don't need the steals, I wouldn't sweat McLouth, particularly in a 10-team mixer.

Mike Gianella (7:34:21 PM PT): We're doing ex-wife jokes now, Jason Collette?

Paul Singman (7:34:31 PM PT): Willy (A): It seems Brandon Beachy is a little ahead of schedule. Do you see that as a positive or does that make you a bit leery?

It's a positive that there have been setbacks yet. Someone should investigate "Setback %" for injuries.

Bret Sayre (7:35:49 PM PT): RotoLando (Cloud City): Bret, are you going to start the Free Brian Goodwin movement tonight, or wait a day out of respect for the oblique contingent?

You know I love Goodwin more than just about anyone else, but he's not ready to be thrust into the majors yet.

Mike Gianella (7:36:27 PM PT): Derek (Vancouver): Patrick Corbin, real or mirage? I have Skaggs waiting on the farm but could always use some good pitching..

Corbin's not THIS good but his real enough. He reminds me of a guy the D-backs had last year: Brandon McCarthy. He's not dominant, but hits his spots and will strike out enough guys to post decent rate stats. I would hang onto him.

Paul Singman (7:36:33 PM PT): Mike Gianella (7:28:08 PM PT): What are you wearing tomorrow, Paul Singman?

A fedora and skinny jeans.

Bret Sayre (7:38:04 PM PT): temple (madison): In a dynasty keeper points league I have all these prospect shortstops stashed: lindor, correa, addison russell,bogaerts. should i keep them all and see who pans out to be really good first and then trade the other 2. or just hang on to them because their value will keep going up.

Hang and see what happens. But if someone wants to give you great value for one or two of them now, that's not such a bad thing.

Josh Shepardson (7:38:17 PM PT): Dr. Mike (Milwaukee): 20-team dynasty... Giancarlo Stanton + Strasburg/Kershaw (my choice) for Darvish, Kimbrel, N. Feliz/S. Miller. I would have Werth to replace Stanton. Also have the option of adding Corbin and picks to get B. Buxton and both Feliz/Miller instead of one of them. Thoughts?

I love Stanton/Strasburg or Kershaw, but for that package I think I'd do it. I would add Corbin and picks to get both Feliz/Miller and Buxton.

Bret Sayre (7:38:52 PM PT): RotoLando (Cloud City): Hi everyone. What is your favorite "unusual" category in leagues that don't use standard 5x5? I like HBP, but I'm weird.

Penalty minutes.

Mike Gianella (7:39:48 PM PT): I'd add on Bret Sayre's comment on Donaldson that he (Donaldson, not Bret) didn't walk in his first 99 plate appearances for the A's in 2012. The eye is back and it's something Donaldson always showed in the minors. He might always be streaky (Donaldson, not Bret), but he looks like a solid player. I like him a lot (Bret, not Donaldson).

Josh Shepardson (7:40:09 PM PT): Paul Singman, will you finish your attire off with some sandals?

Mike Gianella (7:41:54 PM PT): Justin: (Chicago, iL): I'm a newer fantasy player, so please excuse this stupid question. What do you guys do when you have a hitter on your face team going against a pitcher that is also on your team?

Root for the pitcher. Your hitter is going to get four other chances to do something. The pitcher only goes every fifth day.

Josh Shepardson (7:42:05 PM PT): Scott Feldman just completed a complete game with 12 strikeouts. That's a thing that just happened.

Bret Sayre (7:42:47 PM PT): Freddy (L'ville): Fantasy team management question. In a keeper league, when the realization sets in that this may not be the year, how do you handle trades? Do you trade early on or hold out until the deadline? My experience is that I cannot form any real conclusion either way.

Keep both options open. If you get value early, don't be afraid to jump on it, as you never know what will happen towards the deadline. You could end up being one of four or five teams selling at the same time, which could depress your market.

Jason Collette (7:44:22 PM PT): James Loney cannot be gotten out these days. This is a true sign of the apocalypse.

Mike Gianella (7:44:28 PM PT): LoyalRoyal (Kansas): Rest of year, please rank the following as trying to make a deal that includes one: King Felix, R.A. Dickey, Peavy, Buchholz? Also, Dickey is very "gettable" now, but do I want to trade anything of value for him given his MRI and change in throwing motion? Or is he a good, buy low candidate? Thanks..

Felix, Dickey, Buchholz, Peavy. I think Dickey should be OK if his back is all right. It was never likely that he was going to do what he did last year, but I could see a 3.40 ERA out of him with solid peripherals. Keep in mind that Dickey started out slow last year as well. He should be OK, even if he isn't an ace.

Paul Singman (7:44:41 PM PT): Lot's of questions about my clothing. I'll have to address it in an article next week.

Josh Shepardson (7:45:04 PM PT): Freddy (L'ville): Fantasy team management question. In a keeper league, when the realization sets in that this may not be the year, how do you handle trades? Do you trade early on or hold out until the deadline? My experience is that I cannot form any real conclusion either way.

I usually try to beat my competitors to selling, but if the right deal isn't there, I work the phones up until the deadline (sometimes literally).

Paul Singman (7:46:21 PM PT): Worthwhile (Illinois): Is Brandon Crawford for real? I have the opportunity to trade him now, but I won't if he's going to stay close to his current track.

I don't think you'll overly regret trading him. Value probably at its high point.

Bret Sayre (7:46:37 PM PT): I want GIFs in that article, Singman.

Mike Gianella (7:46:38 PM PT): AJ (Phoenix): My dynasty team is taking hits to the DL like we were fighting Money Mayweather. I have multiple offers for Giancarlo Stanton. If I decide to rebuild, best team to deal with has W. Myers, O. Taveras, T. Walker, Z. Wheeler, S. Miller. What's a fair asking prince for my slugger?

As I keep saying, a lot depends on your market. In leagues like mine, you might have a hard time trading Stanton for Taveras straight up and might need to add something. In other leagues, you could get two guys like that for Stanton. Why not start out asking for two of those guys and seeing where it goes?

Jason Collette (7:46:48 PM PT): robertmcgough (Denver): LaRoche is off to one of his notoriously slow starts. I'm pretty stacked at 1B (Pujols, C. Davis, Howard)...should I consider dropping Howard for LaRoche,who just went on waivers? Or should I consider dropping one of my OF's (C. Davis, Beltran, Morse, McLouth, Willingham, De Aza, Granderson) and stashing him until he heats up? 10 team league, 5OF, 1B, CI slots. Or should I just leave it be?

LaRoche could be a 20 HR guy with 60ish RBI the rest of the way. Howard should be able to match that so I wouldn't do the move

Paul Sporer (7:47:54 PM PT): Josh (Boston): I've got both Vernon Wells and Ichiro and I'm worried what will happen to their playing time once Granderson returns. Would you recommend trading either/both?

Any question like that depends on what you can get, of course. Hafner probably isn't making it a full season so there'll be at-bats, but yeah if you can get something that helps your squad, probably better to move them now.

Mike Gianella (7:49:34 PM PT): Tim (Portland): Dynasty League 20 teams 35 roster spots. I took over a team that had outstanding RPs (Joe Nathan, Criag Kimbrel, Rafael Betancourt, Ernesto Frieri) but mediocre SPs (Tim Lincecum and A.J. Burnett are my headliners.) I already pulled a Joe Nathan for Carlos Martinez, Matt Barnes and Jake Marisnick. Should I sell Craig Kimbrel for Chris Archer + Zach Wheeler + Luke Gregerson? I'd prefer sell Rafeal Betancourt but he would only net me Nick Castellanos and a next year third round pick, and I feel I can get more by waiting for better offer. Sincerely. Tim

A trade like that is fine if you're playing for next year or if you know you can flip Archer and or Wheeler down the line. Even though I understand the dynasty value of Wheeler and Archer, that still seems like a lot to trade for this year to get those guys. If it doesn't hurt you this year, do it, but I'd rather move Betancourt or Frieri and make sure I get my stats.

Mike Gianella (7:51:58 PM PT): The Diamondbacks broadcast team is explaining BABIP. Forget about Loney, here's the real apocalypse...YUP, THERE COME THE LOCUSTS.

Paul Sporer (7:52:42 PM PT): That's Steve Berthiuame (sp?), I expect nothing less. He was the purveyor of want on ESPN.

Bret Sayre (7:53:31 PM PT): OK seriously, what is up with all these damn frogs. Is this happening to anyone else?

Mike Gianella (7:53:56 PM PT): riverz (colorado): So last year I had a couple teams in the top half of my two leagues and did ok on steals. this year I decided to draft with an eye towards home runs instead and that's going ok. but both years i've done poorly in batting average. is that worth trying to do better at? how do I improve this category?

There are different schools of thought on this. You can try to acquire guys that are good contact hitters and don't strike out a lot and hope that the BABIP goes your way. Another school of thought is that you should ignore AVG since there's enough variance from year to year. I tend to be in the second camp, unless there's a guy like Joe Mauer sitting out there at a great price.

Jason Collette (7:54:55 PM PT): Cory (Canada): Hi all, in a ten team mixed keeper where I'm hurting for hitting, how would you rank McLouth, Donaldson Arenado, and Duda? I'm second in steals so I'd rather lean towards any production in other areas but McLouth is tempting, after reading Jason's piece yesterday.


In that order...McLouth could steal 30 bases this season at the rate he's being allowed to run when he is on base and the walk rate will temper the BABIP regression.

Jason Collette (7:56:14 PM PT): as I said on Twitter, Jake McGee is to secondary pitches as Shawn Kemp is to condoms. His slider has completely disappeared; he won't even throw it in advantageous counts

Paul Singman (7:56:32 PM PT): I'd take the Duda over Arenado this year.

Jason Collette (7:56:51 PM PT): LoyalRoyal (Kansas): Thanks for chat: Struggling players: Reddick for Espinosa? Thoughts...

I want Reddick here - is still running and has the power to do some damage when he gets hot.

Mike Gianella (7:57:11 PM PT): doog7642 (Blaine, MN): Dynasty points league -- Morneau and Vogelbach for Bogaerts?

Depends on who you have to replace Morneau. Bogaerts is better right now but Vogelbach could shoot up the charts this year. I'd rather have Bogaerts but think Vogelbach is good enough that you could hang on to him and take the stats in the here and now. Would you like some syrup with that waffle, doog?

Bret Sayre (7:58:55 PM PT): temple (madison ): eddie rosario is tearing up High A not quite as good as Sano is doing but he's batting 346 with 3 homers in 120ish AB. I've heard rumors that he may be the Twins second baseman as early as next year. i don't think concerns about what position he will play are on the twins radar anymore. He will play 2b. i just went over your top prospects from the book. Is he just a lot better than you thought he would be or was the lack of position you're main concern? when do you see hm and sano making it to the majors?

Rosario is doing great offensively, but it's nowhere near a lock that he's a 2B long-term. The position makes a big difference, as he's got a much tougher road to being an elite prospect if he's a LF. That said, he can hit. As far as timing, I'd be pretty shocked if either of them saw time in the majors before the second half of next season - and even that timeline is pushing it. The Twins take their time with prospects, and I don't expect them to do something out of the ordinary with those two.

Mike Gianella (7:59:02 PM PT): mmcd (ottawa): What can I expect from Brandon Maurer for the rest of the season?

Probably not much. Safeco helps, but he's a back of the rotation guy. He's an AL-only pitcher and a streamer in deep mixed.

Mike Gianella (8:01:47 PM PT): Joe (New York): Is it time to cut bait on Doc Halladay?

Depends on your other options and your format. It's OK to do in standard mixed. It's better to stash him and hope he rebounds, but if you don't have the space it's hard to wait. Halladay should eventually be able to adjust to lower velocities, but even if he does, you're not looking at the ace Halladay we've seen in the past. For a guy whose upside is now as a #2 or #3, I can understand if you don't want to wait.

Josh Shepardson (8:02:38 PM PT): tom (SF): Uh... drop Corbin for Dickey? Panicky owners abound.

Yup, I certainly would.

Mike Gianella (8:03:04 PM PT): JB (Iowa): Should I deal Kemp for Strasburg? I need help with ratios! Thanks!

I'd probably wait until after Strasburg's next start to make sure he's 100%, but it's a fair trade if you have the hitting to deal and need the arm.

Paul Singman (8:03:16 PM PT): Nick Franklin (Tacoma): When do I get my chance? What position will I play? and How will I do?

Call-up around June 1st. You'll start at short assuming Ackley stays. Good performance worth owning: .270 average with 10 homers/5 steals.

Jason Collette (8:04:00 PM PT): Marc (LA): I'm tied for last place in steals, how long do I hold onto Ben Revere in a 14 team mixed league and hope he returns to form?

Have to hold him. He has tried 7 steals in 18 chances with an empty base in front of him this season. That's a very high rate

Mike Gianella (8:04:28 PM PT): adfeit (Brooklyn): Top 10 players in an OBP dynasty league?

I'd recommend using PECOTA for this kind of ranking.

Paul Singman (8:05:00 PM PT): Swingingbunts (NY): Do you see Machado getting any playing time at SS this season?

I wish. But Hardy's like Iron Man out there.

Mike Gianella (8:07:30 PM PT): eamuscatuli15 (neb): 11 tm/mixed/pts/weekly lineup...quick look at what i have this week... st: Mauer, Konerko, Phillips, Tulo, Trumbo(3b), Cespedes, Aoki, C.Gomez, Crisp(dh) bn: Heyward(dl), T.Hunter, Profar, O.Taveras, and sigh....Hosmer P's: Yu, CC, Shark, Burnett, Hellickson, De la rosa, Straily, EJax, Liriano, Colon, Volquez, and my only closer Soriano i've never been a big trader and this is my first year in this league so i'm trusting my roster and bp on a daily basis. currently in 7th out of 11 and wondering where i should look to improve my roster... i read the article tuesday on trading. obviously have some versatility with Trumbo...i've had Cespedes and Heyward down early...Tulo has been off and on with missed games. I like my stashes and a few of my pitchers are 2 start streamers... where should i look to be improving and who can i afford to part ways with possibly? lots of hitters on the wire, not much starting pitching...lots of closers.

You're going to need replace Crisp since he's on the DL. Looking at your team I think you need pitching. Straily, EJax, De La Rosa are kind of weak for mixed. If you can move a hitter after Heyward comes off the DL, I'd recommend it.

Mike Gianella (8:10:17 PM PT): coach53 (CT): What's going on? In a yahoo league rotisserie standard 8 team league. Standard starters with a utility player. We use 2 SP, 2RP 3P in general. I really need to make a couple of adjustments. Need to add another pitcher and solid bar to this line up. This league is tough with trades! so would need to rely on the waivers Who should we ditch and is there anyone we should be tracking or picking up? Here is the squad... Albert Pujols 1B Joe Mauer C,1B Jacoby Ellsbury OF Evan Longoria 3B Matt Holliday OF Shin-Soo Choo OF Jose Altuve 2B Jimmy Rollins SS Anthony Rizzo 1B Alex Gordon OF Rickie Weeks 2B J.P. Arencibia C Rickie Weeks 2B Cliff Lee SP Roy Halladay SP Huston Street RP Addison Reed RP Jason Grilli RP Tim Lincecum SP Brett Anderson DL Dan Haren SP Kenley Jansen RP Guys who are available. SP: Kuroda Jason Hammell jamie garcia tommy milone Jeff Locke Juan Nicasio Patrick Corbin AJ Burnett Brandon morrow RP Kevin Gregg Jose Veras Alexi Ogando Kelvin Herrera Hitters: Fred Freeman Hunter Pence Shane Victorino Melky Cabrera Torii Hunter Vernon Wells, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Nate McLouth

I could see cycling out some of those pitchers but your team looks solid. 8-team mixed is a flip of the coin in terms of what may or may not happen.

Paul Sporer (8:11:06 PM PT): Dave (Boston): Any thoughts on Verlander's velocity drop? Do you think he will be able to continue dominating if this continues?

I don't see why not. He still looks fantastic. Best bet when you see a velo. drop, check out one of their starts and see if you notice anything amiss. Sometimes it portends trouble, but not always. Still pumping it up to 97-98 when he needs it.

Mike Gianella (8:13:21 PM PT): Shauncore (KC): Long term dynasty I traded my Tulo + Zach Lee for Zunino + Heaney + Alcides Escobar. Traded my Mike Minor for Trevor Bauer + Eddie Rosario + Stetson Allie. Fair value?

I think these deals are fine for you if you're playing for next year and beyond. A lot depends on context. Flipping Tulo and Minor is lousy if you're playing for 2013.

Mike Gianella (8:15:24 PM PT): Cheez Whit (Philly): I got stuck with Chisenhall and Plouffe at CI. Its a keeper league, and have each for $1. Would you drop either for Matt Adams when he comes off the DL?

I'd probably hang onto both Chiz and Plouffe. Adams has been solid, but I still don't see where the everyday PT comes barring a trade or injury.

Mike Gianella (8:19:26 PM PT): Chris (St. Louis): In a keeper league, I'm loaded with young hitters but might lack a little in pitching. Does it make any sense to trade say a stud young OF for a young pitcher? Or is the risk with arms high enough to just draft what's left each year?

Generally speaking, you're better with hitters than with arms in terms of return on value. However, the goal is to win and not to simply get the most value. So if you have the need and it will help you win, make the deal to get the pitcher.

Paul Sporer (8:19:53 PM PT): OK folks, that will wrap it up. Stay tuned for our next evening roundtable!!


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