Wide frame, broad shoulders with some slope, round middle, thick thighs; efficient motion, early rhythm off a shallow rock, fluid building momentum, holds his posture and balance better than in early-season looks; some deceleration at fulcrum still impacts timing and repeatability; stays modestly closed, deep arm action, outstanding arm speed, high-ish three-quarter slot, generates quality angle, plane to drive pitches down in the zone; drive wanders off-line, doesn't get all the way downhill consistently; foot strike still gets firm off the heel occasionally, but notable improvement; clean finish, athletic deceleration; 1.28-1.4 home, showed a slide step, varies timing and cadence well in the stretch; gets too quick, more balls elevated out of the stretch
Elite arm speed creates easy velocity, quality life, mild run, attacks the hands with it, plays upstairs; command leaks to arm side, struggles to finish across to glove side, has a margin for error in the zone; moved it around, additional tick of velocity from April looks
Some weight to it, moderately magnified run, inconsistent movement; additional tailing action isn't enough to offset lower velo; limited, strategic deployment, works as a change-of-pace variant to induce ground balls
Advanced ability to manipulate speed and shape, consistent vertical action, will toggle between 11-5 at lower end of velo band and 11-4 with tighter slider-like action at higher end; bite, quality depth with late snap, will use as chaser or front door it, ground ball pitch with moderate swing-and-miss
Hard change with late dive, mild fade; arm speed consistency has improved, feel for pitch has progressed; commanded it down, confidence to double-up right-on-right; below-average velo separation, will get firm and run into two-seam, mild swing-and-miss potential
Holmes has made progress in addressing a couple trouble spots in his delivery since my first looks in April, most notably gaining more consistent timing into his drive and cleaning up a firm foot strike. The drive still lacks consistency, however, as he'll fail to get downhill and clear his front side. And heel landings still happen on the regular, albeit less frequently than they did. The overall command showed mild improvement from earlier in the year, though his cadence still comes and goes, and he'll fall out of his mechanics for stretches. The raw stuff has ticked up, though, and he's demonstrated the kind of growth and development you want to see this year. The pitches work well together, helping the sum of the package play up and offset a fringier fine-command profile. This is a quality starting pitching prospect with a relatively straight path to the middle of a big-league rotation.