Thick frame, sloped shoulders, will wear weight in the middle; durable, some elasticity to the frame; moderate rock, bobs hands at takeaway, fluid through leg kick; hands and leg go at two different speeds on hand break, poor timing, moderately closed at gather; premium arm speed, deep arm action to a 3/4 slot; quick hips, struggles to contain them, deceleration into drive; moderate stride, very firm foot strike, catapults back leg low across front side, stiff, violent finish; 1.28-1.38 average, holds velo from stretch
90-92 bumped to 92-94 (t95) in first start, 90-92 in limited use second start; some life and deception, slingshot effect; poor command, inconsistent to release point, pulls it down to glove side, better command to arm side; extra half-grade of projection if it holds at upper velo band
Has some run and weight, effective against left-handers to the arm side; pitch lacks consistent action, below-average command, moderate projection, worked on development in second start, used the pitch heavily
Tight 11-5, yakker with late two-plane action; steals strikes, effective through the front door, can take it out of the zone; arm speed makes for difficult pickup, strong snap, swing-and-miss pitch; below-average command profile limits projection
Limited use, flashes average, good ones show moderate fade, could be an effective barrel-misser, can play right-on-right; inconsistent feel, will slow down, struggles to repeat release point and get on top, not a swing-and-miss pitch
Holmes has a delivery that relies on timing and strong body control, and there isn't a ton of feel for tempo. He hesitates as he gathers into his drive, and he doesn't show enough rhythm or consistency with the ensuing weight transfer to repeat that stage of the delivery. The landing and finish vary significantly pitch to pitch as a result of the poor drive balance and the result is a present 40 command profile with a hill to climb to average.
Holmes shows the raw stuff to be an effective mid-rotation starter, though the lower velocity of the second start hurts his profile more than most. He can really spin the curve, and the pitch will generate whiffs along with inducing weak contact. The changeup has a long road ahead.
This is a high volatility prospect at present, with a path to the middle of a big league rotation that will require some time to hone his command if he's going to travel it.