Long, lean frame; broad shoulders; body is still of the lanky variety without a ton of development; long arm action with a deep ball pickup and a bit of an arm stab; reaches balance point and collapses back side in a drop-and-drive move; upper body stays over rubber and leans toward first base fairly dramatically, negatively affecting his balance; lands slightly across body and delivers ball from an arm slot slightly below three-quarters; bit of a slinger at this stage; 1.3-1.4 seconds to the plate; repeats delivery decently despite some mechanical funk.
Chattanooga Lookouts (AA, Twins)
50; late-innings setup role
Velocity: average. Command: fringe-average; delivery inhibits pitcher from spotting pitch to his glove side consistently; better command to his arm side; kept the pitch low in the zone, inducing eight groundouts in this look. Movement: plus; pitch consistently shows late arm-side life and sink, falling under hitters' barrels. Comments: While not impressive in terms of velocity in this start, Reed's fastball is very heavy and will be an above-average offering at the highest level due to its ability to miss barrels and induce weak contact. Velocity/overall grade could tick up to plus in the bullpen.
Command: fringe-average; arm slot/delivery hindered pitcher from getting consistent snap with the pitch; left it hanging in the zone; flashed ability to locate it off the plate and generate swings-and-misses from LHH; showed a willingness to take something off the pitch and drop it in early in counts. Movement: plus; late bite to the glove side; pitch broke laterally for most of the start but flashed ability to show sharp, two-plane break. Comments: Pitch flashed plus a couple of times throughout the outing with sharp 2-to-8 break, generating whiffs both in the zone and out of the zone. The only thing holding it back is consistency, as Reed lacked precision with the pitch and often got around on it, leaving it flat. Pitch could play to plus with command improvements; more likely an above-average offering at the end of the day.
Command: fringe-average; had trouble keeping the pitch down, letting it float up in the zone; command improved as game went along, consistently pounding the lower quadrants of the zone in order to get whiffs and weak contact; flashed ability to go to his arm side and glove side with efficacy. Movement: plus; great arm-side sink and fade; pitch falls under bats late in its trajectory; arm speed increases pitch's deception; movement can elicit awkward swings. Comments: Pitcher showed major confidence in this pitch as the game went along against both righties and lefties. This pitch is his saving grace as a potential starter at this point in his development.
Raw OFP indicates that Reed could be a number three starter, but a command profile that only projects to average brings his overall grade down to that of a back-end starter. The fastball's velocity was merely average but played up due to its late movement, and the slider flashed the ability to be a bat-missing offering but lacked consistency throughout the start. The changeup was a difference maker in this start, helping him get through the lineup a second time. As stated above, this pitch gives him potential life in a rotation and has been a positive development over the past couple of seasons. Realistically, Reed is a late-innings bullpen arm with the potential to pitch high-leverage innings against lefties and righties due to some deception and a solid three-pitch mix that could tick up in short bursts. Though the command is still fringy overall, Reed's ceiling remains in the rotation, however.