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Mike Zagurski
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 26
6'
225 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 LWD A 4 4 1 42 0 56.0 46 22 75 0 54% .341 4 1.21 3.54 -3 6.31 13.0 5.5 6.7 0.6 -3.6 0.0 0.3
2007 CLR A+ 0 0 5 12 0 16.3 6 4 30 0 56% .261 34 0.61 1.10 0 2.40 6.0 3.0 10.2 0.6 5.3 0.0 0.8
2007 REA AA 0 0 0 6 0 7.0 2 2 8 0 31% .125 12 0.57 1.29 1 3.86 2.6 2.6 6.4 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.1
2007 OTT AAA 0 0 0 7 0 9.0 7 6 11 0 32% .318 9 1.44 2.00 0 3.12 7.3 6.2 7.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.2
2007 PHI MLB 1 0 0 25 0 21.3 25 11 21 3 44% .349 12 1.69 5.92 -1 4.84 9.7 4.0 8.1 1.2 0.0 -0.4 0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:37 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 5 3 1 32 9 70.7 62 28 66 7 43% .281 18 1.27 3.29 0 3.40 7.8 3.1 7.2 0.9 18.4 2.2 2.6
75o 4 4 1 31 8 65.0 62 28 60 7 43% .296 15 1.37 4.02 0 4.16 8.4 3.3 7.2 1.0 11.2 1.4 1.8
60o 4 4 1 31 8 61.0 61 27 56 8 44% .307 13 1.44 4.54 0 4.70 8.9 3.5 7.2 1.1 6.7 1.0 1.3
50o 3 4 1 30 8 58.7 61 27 54 8 44% .313 11 1.49 4.85 0 5.02 9.2 3.6 7.2 1.1 4.4 0.7 1.0
40o 3 4 1 29 7 54.7 60 26 50 8 44% .323 9 1.57 5.40 0 5.59 9.7 3.8 7.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.5
25o 2 3 0 27 6 46.7 56 25 43 8 44% .345 5 1.73 6.58 0 6.80 10.7 4.2 7.1 1.4 -6.2 -0.4 -0.2
10o 1 3 0 24 5 36.7 50 22 33 7 44% .373 -2 1.97 8.24 0 8.49 12.1 4.7 7.0 1.7 -12.0 -1.0 -0.9
Weighted Mean 3 3 1 26 6 49.3 50 22 46 6 44% .310 11 1.47 4.74 0 4.91 9.1 3.6 7.2 1.1 4.8 0.6 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

24%

55%

29%

33%

0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 26) 3 3 1 26 6 49.3 50 22 46 6 44% .310 11 1.47 4.74 0 4.91 9.1 3.6 7.2 1.1 4.8 0.6 0.9
2010 (age 27) 3 3 1 30 6 53.0 55 24 48 7 44% .314 9 1.49 4.97 0 5.15 9.3 3.5 7.1 1.1 3.0 0.5 0.7
2011 (age 28) 3 3 1 30 5 47.7 48 21 42 6 42% .303 8 1.44 4.73 0 4.91 8.9 3.4 6.8 1.1 3.4 0.6 0.6
2012 (age 29) 2 3 1 30 4 42.7 46 18 37 5 43% .320 7 1.50 4.94 0 5.11 9.5 3.4 6.7 1.0 2.1 0.4 0.4
2013 (age 30) 2 2 1 27 3 36.0 41 15 30 5 43% .321 4 1.55 5.24 0 5.38 10.0 3.4 6.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.2
2014 (age 31)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .250 .344 .383
vs RHB .263 .360 .434
Split -.013 -.017 -.051
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 0.9 $1,400,000 4.1 4.9
2010 0.7 $1,150,000 2.3 4.5
2011 0.6 $1,275,000 2.9 4.6
2012 0.4 $1,050,000 1.6 2.1
2013 0.2 $800,000 0.4 1.2
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 3.0 $3,075,000 11.4 17.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 4.16 5.02 6.80 4.91
2010 4.52 5.44 7.97 5.15
2011 4.30 5.16 7.49 4.91
2012 4.29 5.35 6.71 5.11
2013 4.47 5.92 7.86 5.38
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 33% 0% 24%
2010 43% 17% 15%
2011 56% 31% 17%
2012 62% 38% 11%
2013 73% 54% 9%
2014 80% 70% 6%
2015 82% 73% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

26

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Gerry Arrigo 1967 34 11 Mike Corkins 1972 24
2 Jack O'Connor 1984 32 12 Mike Kekich 1971 24
3 Frank Kreutzer 1965 31 13 Jim Shellenback 1970 24
4 Nate Robertson 2004 30 14 Angel Guzman 2008 22
5 Ted Bowsfield 1961 29 15 Bill Simas 1998 22
6 Marcelino Lopez 1970 28 16 Randy Stein 1979 21
7 Grant Jackson 1969 27 17 Jorge de la Rosa 2007 20
8 Travis Miller 1999 27 18 Tom Urbani 1994 19
9 Mike Wallace 1977 26 19 Steve Kline 1999 19
10 Dan Smith 2002 26 20 C.J. Wilson 2007 19

Player Comments

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2008

The Phillies really did run the gamut of pitching last year, from Alfredo Alfonseca to Michael Zagurski. Built like a fire hydrant, Zags is the exemplar of how bad things got in the Phillies' pen last year. After climbing all the way from High-A to the majors, he did a fine job of holding down lefties (.216/.286/.216), but was blown away by righties, who turned into Rogers Hornsby against him (.340/.431/.620 in 58 PA). He then injured his right hamstring in August, prompting season-ending surgery. Zagurski doesn't throw hard and gets some groundballs, but he's going to need more, because even LOOGYs end up facing more righties than lefties in their quixotic role. Still, he could get another shot as the team's second lefty after Romero.


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