Mike Zagurski

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:37 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	3	1	32	9	70.7	62	28	66	7	43%	.281	18	1.27	3.29	0	3.40	7.8	3.1	7.2	0.9	18.4	2.2	2.6
75^o	4	4	1	31	8	65.0	62	28	60	7	43%	.296	15	1.37	4.02	0	4.16	8.4	3.3	7.2	1.0	11.2	1.4	1.8
60^o	4	4	1	31	8	61.0	61	27	56	8	44%	.307	13	1.44	4.54	0	4.70	8.9	3.5	7.2	1.1	6.7	1.0	1.3
50^o	3	4	1	30	8	58.7	61	27	54	8	44%	.313	11	1.49	4.85	0	5.02	9.2	3.6	7.2	1.1	4.4	0.7	1.0
40^o	3	4	1	29	7	54.7	60	26	50	8	44%	.323	9	1.57	5.40	0	5.59	9.7	3.8	7.2	1.2	0.4	0.3	0.5
25^o	2	3	0	27	6	46.7	56	25	43	8	44%	.345	5	1.73	6.58	0	6.80	10.7	4.2	7.1	1.4	-6.2	-0.4	-0.2
10^o	1	3	0	24	5	36.7	50	22	33	7	44%	.373	-2	1.97	8.24	0	8.49	12.1	4.7	7.0	1.7	-12.0	-1.0	-0.9
Weighted Mean	3	3	1	26	6	49.3	50	22	46	6	44%	.310	11	1.47	4.74	0	4.91	9.1	3.6	7.2	1.1	4.8	0.6	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
24%	55%	29%	33%	0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 26)	3	3	1	26	6	49.3	50	22	46	6	44%	.310	11	1.47	4.74	0	4.91	9.1	3.6	7.2	1.1	4.8	0.6	0.9
2010 (age 27)	3	3	1	30	6	53.0	55	24	48	7	44%	.314	9	1.49	4.97	0	5.15	9.3	3.5	7.1	1.1	3.0	0.5	0.7
2011 (age 28)	3	3	1	30	5	47.7	48	21	42	6	42%	.303	8	1.44	4.73	0	4.91	8.9	3.4	6.8	1.1	3.4	0.6	0.6
2012 (age 29)	2	3	1	30	4	42.7	46	18	37	5	43%	.320	7	1.50	4.94	0	5.11	9.5	3.4	6.7	1.0	2.1	0.4	0.4
2013 (age 30)	2	2	1	27	3	36.0	41	15	30	5	43%	.321	4	1.55	5.24	0	5.38	10.0	3.4	6.6	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.2
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.250	.344	.383
vs RHB	.263	.360	.434
Split	-.013	-.017	-.051
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.9	$1,400,000	4.1	4.9
2010	0.7	$1,150,000	2.3	4.5
2011	0.6	$1,275,000	2.9	4.6
2012	0.4	$1,050,000	1.6	2.1
2013	0.2	$800,000	0.4	1.2
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	3.0	$3,075,000	11.4	17.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.16	5.02	6.80	4.91
2010	4.52	5.44	7.97	5.15
2011	4.30	5.16	7.49	4.91
2012	4.29	5.35	6.71	5.11
2013	4.47	5.92	7.86	5.38
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	33%	0%	24%
2010	43%	17%	15%
2011	56%	31%	17%
2012	62%	38%	11%
2013	73%	54%	9%
2014	80%	70%	6%
2015	82%	73%	6%

26

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Gerry Arrigo	1967	34		11	Mike Corkins	1972	24
2	Jack O'Connor	1984	32		12	Mike Kekich	1971	24
3	Frank Kreutzer	1965	31		13	Jim Shellenback	1970	24
4	Nate Robertson	2004	30		14	Angel Guzman	2008	22
5	Ted Bowsfield	1961	29		15	Bill Simas	1998	22
6	Marcelino Lopez	1970	28		16	Randy Stein	1979	21
7	Grant Jackson	1969	27		17	Jorge de la Rosa	2007	20
8	Travis Miller	1999	27		18	Tom Urbani	1994	19
9	Mike Wallace	1977	26		19	Steve Kline	1999	19
10	Dan Smith	2002	26		20	C.J. Wilson	2007	19

Player Comments

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2008

The Phillies really did run the gamut of pitching last year, from Alfredo Alfonseca to Michael Zagurski. Built like a fire hydrant, Zags is the exemplar of how bad things got in the Phillies' pen last year. After climbing all the way from High-A to the majors, he did a fine job of holding down lefties (.216/.286/.216), but was blown away by righties, who turned into Rogers Hornsby against him (.340/.431/.620 in 58 PA). He then injured his right hamstring in August, prompting season-ending surgery. Zagurski doesn't throw hard and gets some groundballs, but he's going to need more, because even LOOGYs end up facing more righties than lefties in their quixotic role. Still, he could get another shot as the team's second lefty after Romero.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	LWD	A	4	4	1	42	0	56.0	46	22	75	0	54%	.341	4	1.21	3.54	-3	6.31	13.0	5.5	6.7	0.6	-3.6	0.0	0.3
2007	CLR	A+	0	0	5	12	0	16.3	6	4	30	0	56%	.261	34	0.61	1.10	0	2.40	6.0	3.0	10.2	0.6	5.3	0.0	0.8
2007	REA	AA	0	0	0	6	0	7.0	2	2	8	0	31%	.125	12	0.57	1.29	1	3.86	2.6	2.6	6.4	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.1
2007	OTT	AAA	0	0	0	7	0	9.0	7	6	11	0	32%	.318	9	1.44	2.00	0	3.12	7.3	6.2	7.3	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.2
2007	PHI	MLB	1	0	0	25	0	21.3	25	11	21	3	44%	.349	12	1.69	5.92	-1	4.84	9.7	4.0	8.1	1.2	0.0	-0.4	0.3

Historical Stats