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Kevin Youkilis
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 29
6' 1"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 5 Kevin Youkilis 80 566 .272 83 17 82 5 .372 .448 17.4
3B 6 Kevin Youkilis 10 69 .272 83 17 82 5 .372 .448 17.4
2   2008 Total 90 635 .272 83 17 82 5 .372 .448 17.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 PAW 3A 194 30 15 1 8 27 35 29 1 2 0.6 .322 .459 .592 .461 .295 .426 .545 .325 24.3 22-3B -3 2.4
2005 BOS MJ 95 11 7 0 1 9 14 19 0 1 1.0 .278 .400 .405 .093 .282 .417 .397 .290 3.4 16-3B 1 0.8
2006 BOS MJ 680 100 42 2 13 72 91 120 5 2 1.0 .279 .381 .429 .064 .275 .384 .428 .288 19.6 116-1B 5 5.2
2007 BOS MJ 625 85 35 2 16 83 77 105 4 2 5.0 .288 .390 .453 .142 .285 .393 .467 .298 31.1 123-1B 19 6.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 9:17 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 654 110 44 3 23 96 93 107 7 3 0.2 .307 .412 .526 .277 .298 .408 .537 .327 51.6 152-1B 8 7.7
75o 594 84 36 2 18 82 79 101 6 3 0.2 .283 .385 .472 .145 .275 .381 .482 .303 28.2 139-1B 8 5.7
60o 576 76 34 2 16 77 75 99 5 3 0.2 .275 .376 .455 .104 .268 .372 .465 .296 21.7 135-1B 8 5.1
50o 556 69 32 2 15 73 71 97 5 3 0.2 .268 .367 .438 .063 .261 .364 .448 .288 15.6 131-1B 8 4.5
40o 542 64 30 2 14 70 68 96 5 3 0.2 .263 .361 .426 .033 .256 .357 .436 .282 11.3 127-1B 8 4.1
25o 514 56 27 2 12 64 62 93 4 2 0.1 .252 .349 .403 -.024 .245 .345 .412 .271 3.7 121-1B 8 3.4
10o 479 46 24 1 10 57 55 88 4 2 0.1 .240 .334 .374 -.095 .233 .330 .383 .257 -4.6 113-1B 8 2.5
Weighted Mean 616 83 36 2 17 82 79 107 6 3 0.2 .272 .372 .448 .086 .265 .368 .458 .292 17.3 144-1B 9 5.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

13%

35%

24%

8%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 29) 616 83 36 2 17 82 79 107 6 3 0.2 .272 .372 .448 .086 .265 .368 .458 .292 17.3 144-1B 9 5.2
2009 (age 30) 585 77 35 2 15 75 77 102 5 2 0.1 .275 .377 .448 .097 .272 .379 .466 .294 18.6 137-1B 9 4.8
2010 (age 31) 564 71 33 2 14 72 75 98 5 2 0.1 .269 .373 .437 .071 .266 .375 .454 .290 13.8 132-1B 9 4.1
2011 (age 32) 536 65 31 2 13 68 69 97 4 2 0.1 .269 .372 .434 .067 .266 .374 .452 .289 11.8 126-1B 6 3.5
2012 (age 33) 532 63 30 2 13 66 68 95 4 2 0.0 .264 .366 .424 .039 .260 .368 .441 .284 7.3 125-1B 4 2.6
2013 (age 34) 536 66 30 2 14 68 71 92 4 2 0.0 .274 .375 .440 .082 .271 .377 .457 .291 9.1 126-1B 4 2.4
2014 (age 35) 476 54 28 1 12 60 65 84 3 2 0.0 .264 .370 .431 .056 .261 .372 .448 .287 5.9 113-1B 1 1.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .285 .389 .468
vs RHP .267 .363 .433
Split +.018 +.026 +.035
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 3.4 1.8 5.2 $12,350,000 27.4 18.9
2009 3.3 1.5 4.8 $12,325,000 27.6 25.7
2010 2.7 1.5 4.1 $10,875,000 22.8 19.3
2011 2.4 1.2 3.5 $9,400,000 18.3 15.3
2012 1.8 0.8 2.6 $6,425,000 11.3 8.3
2013 1.7 0.7 2.4 $6,850,000 12.5 10.5
2014 1.3 0.6 1.9 $4,950,000 7.3 5.1
Peak 22.7 $47,900,000 119.8 98.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .303 .288 .271 .292
2009 .302 .287 .272 .294
2010 .299 .284 .269 .290
2011 .296 .280 .262 .289
2012 .293 .279 .257 .284
2013 .299 .284 .256 .291
2014 .291 .279 .259 .287


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 13%
2009 17% 2% 8%
2010 26% 10% 9%
2011 31% 17% 7%
2012 50% 27% 4%
2013 55% 34% 8%
2014 66% 46% 4%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

49

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Sal Bando 1992 40 11 Eric Chavez 2003 33
2 Tim Salmon 1979 36 12 Pat Burrell 1971 33
3 Derrek Lee 1981 36 13 Mike Hargrove 1982 33
4 Bob Allison 1970 36 14 Leo Gomez 1960 33
5 Mike Andrews 1973 35 15 Bill Melton 2007 32
6 Morgan Ensberg 1992 35 16 Jeff Burroughs 1975 32
7 John Mayberry 1975 34 17 Scott Rolen 1969 32
8 Alvin Davis 1975 34 18 Mike Jorgensen 2000 31
9 Tom Brunansky 1957 34 19 Edgar Martinez 1979 30
10 Denis Menke 1998 33 20 Cal Ripken 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

The Greek God of Walks finally spent a full year in the majors in 2006, three years after becoming a cause c?l?bre among statheads, and hit in the vicinity of his 60th percentile PECOTA projection. Factor in above-average defense and a salary just above $350,000, and it`s tempting to pat the Red Sox on the back here and focus on other concerns. However, Youkilis is already 28, and the move to first base raised the offensive bar; that .381 OBP was tasty, but due to a lack of power, his Positional Marginal Lineup Value rate was negative (-0.052), even below that of Kevin Millar (-0.030), the man he replaced. In other words, relative to other AL first basemen, he costs his team runs. His bat fits in better across the diamond, but with Mike Lowell, the Sox have that base covered. There`s no reason to punt Youkilis while he`s cheap, but the Sox needn`t become overly enamored.

2006

Francona does not like to use his bench except in rigid patterns, like a platoon in right field or Mirabelli catching Wakefield. Having Youkilis around to spell Mueller once a week, play some first base, pinch hit for the middle infielders-that was not a role that seemed to interest Francona. As a result, Youkilis spent much of the season in Pawtucket, where he mashed, but he also hit well in his Boston stints. Mueller has moved on, but the team acquired two more third basemen-Lowell and Andy Marte. Youkilis is penciled in as the Sox` starting first baseman, pending the inevitable counterproductive job challenge from J.T. Snow.

2005

Youkilis' season was all about injuries, but not always his own. He took over at third in mid-May when Mueller had arthroscopic knee surgery and played well through mid-August. He then went on the DL with a bone bruise after a collision with Sandy Alomar. Youkilis played very well in Boston, hitting more home runs than he had at any level since college and erasing many of the fears after his flop in Pawtucket late last year. The Sox picked up Mueller's option for 2005, but with Youkilis looking ready to contribute at the major league level, look for one of these two to be moved by year's end.


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