Jake Woods

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:36 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	3	1	44	5	71.3	63	31	53	6	42%	.270	6	1.32	3.69	0	3.85	7.9	3.4	5.8	0.8	14.8	1.6	2.1
75^o	4	3	1	41	5	65.3	65	30	48	8	42%	.287	2	1.45	4.39	0	4.55	8.9	3.6	5.7	1.0	8.3	0.9	1.4
60^o	3	3	1	39	5	60.0	66	29	43	9	42%	.302	-2	1.57	5.11	0	5.25	9.7	3.8	5.5	1.3	2.7	0.4	0.8
50^o	3	3	1	37	4	56.0	66	28	39	9	42%	.313	-4	1.66	5.62	0	5.74	10.4	3.9	5.4	1.5	-0.6	0.1	0.4
40^o	3	3	0	36	4	54.3	65	27	38	10	42%	.318	-5	1.70	5.86	0	5.97	10.7	4.0	5.4	1.5	-2.0	-0.1	0.3
25^o	2	3	0	33	4	48.3	64	25	32	10	42%	.335	-10	1.85	6.78	0	6.84	11.8	4.1	5.2	1.8	-6.6	-0.5	-0.3
10^o	1	3	0	27	3	38.0	59	22	24	10	41%	.362	-18	2.11	8.44	0	8.39	13.8	4.5	4.9	2.4	-12.1	-1.0	-0.9
Weighted Mean	3	3	1	34	4	51.3	57	25	36	8	42%	.305	-2	1.59	5.21	0	5.34	9.9	3.8	5.5	1.3	2.0	0.3	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
25%	49%	20%	15%	0.93

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 27)	3	3	1	34	4	51.3	57	25	36	8	42%	.305	-2	1.59	5.21	0	5.34	9.9	3.8	5.5	1.3	2.0	0.3	0.6
2010 (age 28)	3	3	1	31	3	47.7	54	22	33	8	42%	.306	-4	1.59	5.22	0	5.32	10.0	3.7	5.4	1.4	1.6	0.3	0.5
2011 (age 29)	3	3	1	35	3	51.7	56	24	38	7	42%	.302	-1	1.53	4.83	0	4.96	9.6	3.6	5.6	1.2	2.3	0.5	0.4
2012 (age 30)	3	2	1	32	3	46.3	51	22	33	6	42%	.309	-2	1.57	4.86	0	4.98	9.8	3.7	5.5	1.1	2.0	0.4	0.4
2013 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.246	.335	.398
vs RHB	.266	.367	.450
Split	-.020	-.032	-.052
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.6	$925,000	1.3	2.7
2010	0.5	$875,000	1.1	2.8
2011	0.4	$975,000	2.0	2.6
2012	0.4	$975,000	1.7	1.9
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	2.1	$1,950,000	6.3	10.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.55	5.74	6.84	5.34
2010	4.69	5.78	6.67	5.32
2011	4.10	5.32	6.39	4.96
2012	4.29	4.87	6.51	4.98
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	15%	0%	25%
2010	42%	22%	16%
2011	63%	51%	18%
2012	61%	50%	18%
2013	79%	69%	8%
2014	87%	77%	9%
2015	91%	88%	5%

67

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Stan Clarke	1988	71		11	Bryan Ward	1999	52
2	Matt Perisho	2003	63		12	Bob MacDonald	1993	52
3	Wally Ritchie	1993	61		13	Oswaldo Mairena	2002	52
4	Neal Musser	2008	59		14	Jose Rodriguez	2002	52
5	Jon Switzer	2007	57		15	Tim Byrdak	2001	50
6	Larry Thomas	1997	57		16	Rich Scheid	1992	50
7	Ken Vining	2002	56		17	Juan Alvarez	2001	49
8	Wayne Franklin	2002	54		18	Mike Jeffcoat	1987	49
9	Matt Miller	2002	54		19	Steve Sinclair	1999	49
10	Chuck Hensley	1987	53		20	Ben Vanryn	1999	49

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

It seems there was a reason Jake Woods wound up on waivers in the first place. Since the Mariners have a younger, more promising version of the same pitcher in Ryan Feierabend, Woods was deemed expendable, and is now off the 40-man roster.

2007

Woods was acquired on waivers from the Angels and enjoyed a nice--if a bit fluky--2006 campaign in the Pacific Northwest. Woods` best pitch is his curve when he can get it over the plate. One of the long list of Mariners lefties with bad strikeout rates hoping to inherit the mantle of Jamie Moyer, Woods needs to improve his control if he hopes to have a lasting career in the Moyer mold or any other.

2006

The curveball is a fickle mistress--mastering its looping trajectory has driven many pitchers to distraction over the years. Woods has a nice curve when he has it working, but lacks the ability to consistently throw it for strikes. One night it`s filthy, the next, it`s bouncing or taking a one-way tour of the bleachers. If Woods can get it nailed down, he`ll be a big asset for the Mariners now that he`s been dealt to them, maybe even as a starter.

2005

Strong control, middling stuff, sometimes hints he can start in the bigs. His results against lefties are so much better than against righties that his future is in the bullpen regardless; once his managers get a taste of him in the LOOGY role, they'll never let him out. Bombed as a starter at Triple-A, which will only speed the conversion process.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	SEA	MLB	7	4	1	37	8	105.0	115	53	66	12	43%	.307	1	1.60	4.20	-2	4.28	9.7	4.5	5.0	1.0	19.1	1.6	2.7
2007	TAC	AAA	5	7	1	25	18	114.7	151	42	79	17	43%	.364	2	1.68	6.90	-6	7.55	12.4	3.6	4.4	1.8	-23.2	0.0	-1.1
2007	SEA	MLB	0	0	0	4	0	10.7	9	7	4	1	35%	.222	-28	1.59	5.89	3	8.74	6.4	4.8	2.4	0.8	-1.0	0.0	-0.1
2008	TAC	AAA	6	1	1	32	2	64.0	64	27	54	7	43%	.313	-8	1.42	4.08	3	5.22	9.5	4.0	5.2	1.2	2.5	0.0	1.0
2008	SEA	MLB	0	0	0	15	0	19.0	22	11	9	5	27%	.279	-23	1.74	6.16	-1	5.89	10.3	4.9	3.9	2.5	-1.0	-0.1	0.1

Historical Stats