Les Walrond

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 5:49 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	6	1	42	13	99.7	99	42	74	10	48%	.294	6	1.42	4.16	0	4.36	8.8	3.4	5.8	0.8	15.0	2.0	2.5
75^o	6	6	1	41	12	94.0	98	41	69	10	48%	.301	4	1.47	4.52	0	4.72	9.2	3.4	5.7	0.9	10.1	1.5	1.9
60^o	5	5	1	41	11	85.0	94	38	61	10	48%	.313	1	1.55	5.10	0	5.32	9.9	3.5	5.6	1.0	3.3	0.7	1.1
50^o	4	5	1	40	10	80.0	92	36	57	10	48%	.320	-1	1.60	5.45	0	5.67	10.2	3.6	5.5	1.1	-0.2	0.4	0.7
40^o	4	5	0	38	9	73.3	89	34	51	10	48%	.329	-3	1.67	5.91	0	6.14	10.8	3.7	5.4	1.2	-4.1	0.0	0.2
25^o	3	4	0	35	8	61.7	81	30	42	10	48%	.343	-7	1.79	6.74	0	6.97	11.7	3.8	5.3	1.4	-9.4	-0.6	-0.4
10^o	2	3	0	27	5	40.7	61	21	26	8	48%	.370	-15	2.03	8.43	0	8.64	13.4	4.1	4.9	1.8	-14.0	-1.2	-1.1
Weighted Mean	4	5	1	41	10	78.7	88	35	56	10	48%	.315	0	1.56	5.18	0	5.40	9.9	3.5	5.6	1.1	2.3	0.6	0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
19%	52%	20%	31%	0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 32)	4	5	1	41	10	78.7	88	35	56	10	48%	.315	0	1.56	5.18	0	5.40	9.9	3.5	5.6	1.1	2.3	0.6	0.8
2010 (age 33)	3	4	1	37	6	59.7	68	26	41	8	48%	.314	-4	1.57	5.25	0	5.46	10.1	3.4	5.3	1.1	1.0	0.3	0.4
2011 (age 34)	3	3	1	37	5	55.0	63	24	38	8	48%	.311	-5	1.57	5.46	0	5.66	10.2	3.4	5.4	1.3	0.0	0.2	0.2
2012 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.241	.335	.377
vs RHB	.275	.367	.440
Split	-.034	-.032	-.063
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.8	$1,050,000	1.3	2.8
2010	0.4	$800,000	0.4	2.3
2011	0.2	$625,000	-0.4	0.7
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	1.8	$1,475,000	2.1	7.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.72	5.67	6.97	5.40
2010	4.56	6.05	7.77	5.46
2011	5.16	5.69	6.60	5.66
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	31%	0%	19%
2010	55%	28%	17%
2011	70%	55%	6%
2012	83%	68%	3%
2013	84%	73%	6%
2014	90%	83%	5%
2015	94%	90%	2%

59

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Tom Bolton	1994	56		11	Blaine Beatty	1996	42
2	Chris Hammond	1998	48		12	Dave Wehrmeister	1985	42
3	Pat Rapp	2000	48		13	Alex Kellner	1957	42
4	Geoff Zahn	1978	48		14	David Palmer	1990	41
5	Marty McLeary	2007	47		15	Harry Perkowski	1955	41
6	Joe Hatten	1949	46		16	Bob Ojeda	1990	41
7	Trevor Wilson	1999	44		17	Ron Musselman	1987	40
8	Darren Oliver	2003	44		18	Mike Birkbeck	1993	40
9	John Halama	2004	44		19	Howie Pollet	1954	40
10	Jim Bullinger	1998	43		20	Bo Belinsky	1969	40

Player Comments

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2007

Walrond makes sense as a LOOGY, since he has an assortment of the off- and further off-speed pitches that lefties hate and righties kill. He also has a fastball that every hitter loves. His two starts were bad jokes.

2005

The Royals claimed Walrond off waivers from the Cardinals in 2003, not only for his collegiate roots at KU but also his track record, which other than his command was impressive. Walrond made strides in that department last season, cutting his walk rate in Omaha, and winning the PCL ERA title. He's a minor league free agent at this writing, and one of the better ones out there; he's could give some team a few good years out of the bullpen.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	IOW	AAA	10	5	0	31	20	133.1	134	59	104	11	53%	.313	5	1.45	3.99	-5	5.39	10.0	4.2	4.8	1.1	2.9	0.0	1.9
2006	CHN	MLB	0	1	0	10	2	17.3	19	12	21	2	55%	.362	18	1.79	6.24	-1	5.50	9.5	5.0	9.5	1.0	-1.2	-0.3	0.2
2007	IOW	AAA	11	5	0	27	24	137.7	167	48	93	13	49%	.352	5	1.56	4.77	-4	5.65	11.3	3.4	4.3	1.1	-0.7	0.0	1.6
2008	LEH	AAA	5	8	0	21	17	111.0	106	42	105	4	52%	.336	10	1.33	3.32	1	4.91	8.9	3.7	5.6	0.5	8.1	0.0	2.2
2008	IOW	AAA	1	1	0	7	0	11.0	20	5	14	1	50%	.500	15	2.27	6.55	-6	5.73	18.0	4.1	7.4	0.8	-0.2	0.0	0.2
2008	PHI	MLB	1	1	0	6	0	10.3	13	9	12	0	54%	.500	22	2.13	6.12	-3	2.89	13.5	7.7	9.6	0.0	-0.7	-0.1	0.6

Historical Stats