<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Shane Victorino
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats B
Age 28
5' 9"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
CF 2 Shane Victorino 90 226 .294 41 4 23 10 .356 .440 7.8
1   2009 Total 90 226 .294 41 4 23 10 .356 .440 7.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 PHI MLB 462 70 19 8 6 46 24 54 4 3 1.0 .287 .346 .414 -.022 .285 .341 .413 .261 12.4 61-CF 4 17-RF 3 1.6
2007 PHI MLB 510 78 23 3 12 46 37 62 37 4 3.5 .281 .347 .423 .010 .280 .348 .431 .279 18.1 102-RF 5 2.7
2008 PHI MLB 627 102 30 8 14 58 45 69 36 11 7.4 .293 .352 .447 .085 .297 .357 .465 .282 34.2 134-CF -2 5-RF 1 3.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:29 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 589 103 31 5 15 60 47 65 30 9 4.0 .317 .380 .480 .172 .318 .380 .487 .300 42.0 138-CF 0 5.5
75o 558 88 28 5 12 55 43 63 27 8 3.7 .303 .364 .452 .095 .303 .365 .459 .287 29.6 131-CF -1 4.2
60o 544 82 27 4 11 52 41 62 26 8 3.5 .296 .357 .439 .060 .297 .358 .446 .281 24.5 128-CF -1 3.7
50o 532 77 26 4 11 50 40 61 25 8 3.4 .291 .352 .429 .032 .291 .352 .435 .276 20.4 125-CF -2 3.2
40o 516 71 24 4 10 48 38 60 24 7 3.2 .284 .344 .415 -.007 .284 .344 .421 .269 15.1 121-CF -2 2.7
25o 488 61 22 3 8 44 35 58 22 7 3.0 .272 .331 .391 -.070 .272 .331 .397 .258 7.0 115-CF -2 1.8
10o 458 51 20 3 7 39 32 56 20 6 2.7 .259 .317 .367 -.137 .259 .318 .372 .245 -0.7 109-CF -3 0.9
Weighted Mean 565 84 27 4 11 54 42 65 27 8 3.4 .291 .352 .428 .033 .291 .352 .435 .275 22.7 132-CF -2 3.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

11%

48%

21%

8%

0.73

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 28) 565 84 27 4 11 54 42 65 27 8 3.4 .291 .352 .428 .033 .291 .352 .435 .275 22.7 132-CF -2 3.2
2010 (age 29) 555 80 28 4 11 53 42 62 23 6 3.1 .285 .346 .422 -.012 .281 .341 .423 .272 16.0 130-CF -4 2.6
2011 (age 30) 494 66 25 3 9 47 39 56 19 5 2.8 .286 .350 .417 -.011 .282 .345 .418 .272 14.0 117-CF -2 2.4
2012 (age 31) 456 60 23 3 10 45 34 51 16 4 2.5 .291 .352 .434 .018 .287 .347 .434 .276 14.4 108-CF -4 2.1
2013 (age 32) 412 50 20 2 9 41 32 46 13 3 2.2 .283 .344 .420 -.019 .279 .339 .421 .269 9.6 98-CF -6 1.4
2014 (age 33) 401 48 19 2 7 39 32 45 12 3 2.0 .285 .350 .409 -.022 .281 .345 .410 .269 8.1 96-CF -4 1.3
2015 (age 34) 298 33 15 1 6 30 24 34 8 2 1.5 .287 .352 .424 .002 .283 .347 .425 .273 7.3 73-CF -6 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .298 .356 .464
vs RHP .288 .349 .404
Split +.011 +.007 +.060
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 13.1 -2.0 3.2 $6,600,000 23.2 22.0
2010 10.8 -4.0 2.6 $4,900,000 15.6 14.3
2011 9.6 -2.0 2.4 $4,875,000 14.7 14.5
2012 11.3 -4.0 2.1 $4,575,000 13.3 14.2
2013 6.7 -6.0 1.4 $2,950,000 7.4 7.7
2014 6.6 -4.0 1.3 $3,150,000 7.7 7.3
2015 6.2 -6.0 0.9 $2,425,000 5.3 6.5
Peak 13.0 $20,850,000 81.9 80.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .287 .276 .258 .275
2010 .284 .269 .257 .272
2011 .289 .269 .250 .272
2012 .291 .273 .251 .276
2013 .281 .267 .244 .269
2014 .286 .265 .246 .269
2015 .287 .272 .237 .273


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 8% 0% 11%
2010 18% 2% 10%
2011 26% 6% 12%
2012 40% 15% 17%
2013 47% 20% 11%
2014 52% 28% 9%
2015 66% 38% 11%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

59

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Billy Hatcher 1989 57 11 Jim Busby 1955 42
2 Dave Collins 1981 57 12 Rudy Law 1985 42
3 Coco Crisp 2008 55 13 Darryl Hamilton 1993 42
4 Dan Gladden 1986 49 14 R.J. Reynolds 1987 42
5 Brian McRae 1996 48 15 Shannon Stewart 2002 41
6 Steve Finley 1993 47 16 Ken Landreaux 1983 41
7 Randy Winn 2003 46 17 Marquis Grissom 1995 41
8 Miguel Dilone 1983 45 18 Dave Gallagher 1989 41
9 Mitch Webster 1987 44 19 Ted Uhlaender 1969 40
10 Tike Redman 2005 43 20 Lenny Green 1961 39

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

With the departure of Rowand, Victorino returns to center field, where he excelled defensively in 2006. His bat also plays better in the middle pasture; he's underpowered for right, but his overall 2007 performance was in line with what the average NL center fielder hit last year (.273/.336/.426). Victorino might be a bit better than that; he was hitting .284/.351/.430 last year before a calf injury cost him three weeks in August and limited his playing time in September. Playing on one leg, he hit just .255/.308/.362 in 53 scattered plate appearances, dragging down his overall numbers.

2007

Rowand`s injury and Abreu`s trade gave Victorino the chance to play regularly last year, and he made the most of it. Despite only stealing four bases--he batted ahead of Utley and Howard and was understandably red-lighted--speed is a vital part of his game, whether he`s slashing across the outfield or taking extra bases with abandon. Rowand shouldn`t assume that his center field job is uncontested.

2006

A two-time selection in the Rule 5 Draft--the Phillies plucked him in 2004--Victorino was named International League MVP. He is the shortest center fielder to play for Philadelphia since the gnome-like Ricky Otero played 140 games in 1996-97. Unlike Otero, Victorino can actually swing the bat as well as run, and he developed a line-drive power stroke in the past two years. In six previous seasons, he had never hit more than four homers, but he`s mashing these days. Unfortunately, with Aaron Rowand and Jason Michaels in front of him, he`s going nowhere fast.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.