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Javier Valentin
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 33
5' 10"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 CIN MLB 201 24 6 1 8 27 13 29 0 0 0.2 .269 .313 .441 -.081 .259 .308 .427 .253 4.0 35-C 2 0.6
2007 CIN MLB 265 19 21 0 2 34 19 25 0 0 -2.9 .276 .328 .387 -.107 .269 .325 .380 .247 5.9 53-C -8 -0.4
2008 CIN MLB 144 10 8 0 4 18 14 27 0 0 0.1 .256 .326 .411 -.063 .256 .326 .419 .258 2.6 9-1B 0 8-C 0 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:22 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 145 20 8 0 4 21 15 20 0 0 -0.9 .299 .373 .462 .145 .303 .376 .483 .294 9.9 38-C -4 1.1
75o 132 15 7 0 3 17 13 19 0 0 -0.8 .271 .344 .417 .010 .275 .347 .436 .271 4.9 35-C -3 0.7
60o 129 14 7 0 3 17 12 19 0 0 -0.7 .264 .336 .405 -.027 .267 .339 .423 .264 3.7 35-C -3 0.6
50o 121 12 6 0 2 15 11 18 0 0 -0.7 .247 .319 .378 -.105 .251 .322 .395 .249 1.3 33-C -3 0.3
40o 113 9 6 0 2 13 10 18 0 0 -0.6 .231 .302 .351 -.183 .234 .305 .367 .234 -0.9 31-C -2 0.1
25o 102 7 5 0 2 11 9 16 0 0 -0.5 .211 .281 .318 -.280 .214 .283 .333 .213 -3.1 29-C -2 0.0
10o 78 4 3 0 1 6 6 13 0 0 -0.3 .173 .240 .256 -.461 .175 .242 .267 .168 -5.7 23-C -1 -0.3
Weighted Mean 113 11 6 0 2 13 11 17 0 0 -0.6 .252 .324 .385 -.099 .255 .327 .403 .252 3.2 31-C -3 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

22%

48%

38%

37%

1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 33) 113 11 6 0 2 13 11 17 0 0 -0.6 .252 .324 .385 -.099 .255 .327 .403 .252 3.2 31-C -3 0.4
2010 (age 34) 106 10 5 0 3 14 10 17 0 0 -0.4 .257 .329 .402 -.068 .257 .326 .414 .259 1.9 29-C -2 0.4
2011 (age 35) 108 10 5 0 3 13 10 17 0 0 -0.3 .257 .324 .399 -.080 .256 .322 .411 .256 1.2 30-C -2 0.2
2012 (age 36) 95 8 5 0 2 11 9 15 0 0 -0.2 .252 .321 .387 -.106 .251 .319 .399 .251 0.5 27-C -3 0.1
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .247 .319 .359
vs RHP .254 .327 .403
Split -.007 -.008 -.044
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 0.9 -3.0 0.4 $750,000 0.8 2.6
2010 1.6 -2.0 0.4 $800,000 0.8 2.0
2011 1.4 -2.0 0.2 $675,000 -0.2 1.0
2012 0.7 -3.0 0.1 $600,000 -0.4 0.4
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 1.1 $950,000 0.2 6.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .271 .249 .213 .252
2010 .280 .251 .227 .259
2011 .267 .254 .226 .256
2012 .265 .242 .219 .251
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 37% 0% 22%
2010 55% 28% 23%
2011 72% 47% 16%
2012 81% 65% 12%
2013 90% 77% 8%
2014 97% 85% 7%
2015 98% 93% 3%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

42

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Matt Batts 1955 37 11 Jim Essian 1984 27
2 Carl Sawatski 1961 33 12 Rick Cerone 1988 27
3 Ed Fitz Gerald 1958 32 13 Robert Fick 2007 26
4 Sean Berry 2000 31 14 Milt May 1984 26
5 Greg Myers 2000 30 15 Joe Nolan 1985 25
6 Damon Berryhill 1997 30 16 Buck Martinez 1982 25
7 Mike LaValliere 1994 29 17 Lenny Webster 1998 24
8 Bob Stinson 1979 28 18 Bill Haselman 2000 24
9 Steve Lake 1990 27 19 Don Slaught 1992 23
10 J.C. Martin 1970 27 20 Doug Mientkiewicz 2008 23

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Javier Valentin is still coming down off of his offensive explosion in 2005. To the Reds' credit, they didn't lose their heads when it happened and think they had a superstar on their hands. Valentin remains a decent hitter for a backup catcher. He's not a good receiver anymore, but he's far from an embarrassment. In short, he's a useful spare part.

2007

Rescued from the scrapheap, in three years as a Reds reserve, Valentin`s hit .286/.340/.501 against right-handed pitching, and he`s effective against the running game. He wouldn`t quite hit that well if he was playing full-time in a platoon, but he won`t do too much worse if he simply gets to share the job with Ross.

2006

In one of those surprises that makes the game so fascinating--and makes BP look good when it says `has enough pop to pull a 15-homer season at some point`--Valentin had his career year in 2005. Mediocre pitchers probably aren`t going to challenge him with fastballs again in 2006, which will hurt his power numbers. He`s adequate behind the plate, though the roly-poly `switch hitter` couldn`t hit Jennifer Lopez`s backside with a bat right-handed from three feet away.

2005

Got off to a horrendous start and never really recovered. They weren't going to win the Wild Card much less catch the world-beating Cardinals last year, but the 241 at-bats of misery that Valentin and Corky Miller inflicted on the Reds didn't help the club in its unsuccessful quest for .500 either. Of course a lot of the blame goes to Valentin's splits: .109/.146/.109 vs. lefties, .269/.333/.462 vs. righties. Still has enough pop to pull a 15-homer season at some point, if given the playing time.

2003

The battles with Tom Kelly have been fought and lost, which along with a knee injury in 2000 helped cost Valentin three years he could have been in the majors. His lack of options finally forced the Twins to dump him on the Brewers, but he’s still standing. His knees aren’t the best, but he can hit, he’s got a good arm, and he’s still relatively young. He’s better than several major league starters, let alone the Girardis of the world, so he could finally break out this year.

2002

Valentin could most recently be seen whistling jubilantly while cleaning out Tom Kelly's office. As with Matt LeCroy, Kelly wasn't nuts about Valentin's defense. Valentin spent 2001 learning to keep his hands higher at the plate, as well as playing a little first base and third base. His defense behind the plate is good enough to let him play every day in the majors, and he could well blossom if just left alone to do so. He'll be fighting for a roster spot, presumably behind Pierzynski.

2001

After Javier Valentin spent two years caddying for Terry Steinbach, it was a bit of a surprise that he was not the Opening Day catcher in 2000. He managed to offend Tom Kelly in spring training by assuming that the job was his and lost his spot on the big-league team for not hustling. It wasn’t particularly fair, but summary judgments rarely are. Valentin injured his knee at Salt Lake so badly that he couldn’t catch, then was removed from the 40-man roster this winter. Once he recovers, his shot at a career with the Twins depends on whether he can outlast Kelly.

2000

Valentin is caught in a bind. While he won’t be the star people expected after his big year at 19 in the Midwest League, he’s a solid backup catcher and could count on playing time as long as Steinbach was around. Now LeCroy should be coming to town, so Valentin will either get used to being his caddy or hope for a trade to avoid that worst of all possible things, a summer in Utah.

1999

For the most part, we're not running 1995 lines this year, but I've left Valentin's in to illustrate a point: past minor league performance, properly translated, predicts future major league performance as well as past major league performance. And like major league performance, sometimes there's an outlier. Valentin's 1995 has the analyst community drooling, but it's apparent that it was a favorite restaurant in Fort Wayne, or his girlfriend that year, or an alien taking over his body. It happens, in the majors and minors, a lot more than you'd think.

1998

Formerly known as Jose. This Valentin is still very young, with plenty of time to blossom as a hitter, but thus far he hasn’t shown much with the bat at Double-A. Gets raves for his defense, which won’t matter unless he improves at the plate. Might find himself pushed by A.J. Pierzynski if the hitting doesn’t come around.


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