Andy Tracy

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:28 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	436	64	20	1	20	66	57	96	2	1	-1.9	.269	.368	.487	.117	.269	.368	.494	.294	19.8	104-1B 0	2.6
75^o	409	54	18	1	17	59	51	93	2	1	-1.7	.253	.350	.455	.033	.253	.350	.461	.279	10.5	97-1B 0	1.7
60^o	376	43	16	1	14	50	44	89	2	1	-1.5	.235	.329	.417	-.066	.235	.329	.424	.261	1.0	90-1B 0	0.7
50^o	364	39	15	1	13	48	42	88	2	1	-1.4	.228	.321	.405	-.100	.229	.322	.411	.255	-1.9	87-1B 0	0.4
40^o	352	36	14	1	12	45	40	86	2	1	-1.4	.222	.314	.392	-.134	.222	.314	.398	.248	-4.6	85-1B 0	0.1
25^o	317	28	12	0	10	37	34	81	2	1	-1.2	.204	.293	.357	-.227	.205	.294	.362	.229	-11.0	77-1B 0	-0.6
10^o	276	20	9	0	8	29	27	73	2	0	-1.0	.186	.271	.319	-.328	.186	.271	.324	.206	-16.0	68-1B 0	-1.3
Weighted Mean	376	42	15	1	14	50	44	89	2	1	-1.4	.233	.327	.415	-.069	.233	.327	.421	.258	2.8	90-1B 0	0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
36%	51%	27%	25%	0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 35)	376	42	15	1	14	50	44	89	2	1	-1.4	.233	.327	.415	-.069	.233	.327	.421	.258	2.8	90-1B 0	0.7
2010 (age 36)	403	49	18	0	14	56	49	91	3	1	-0.8	.244	.338	.423	-.054	.241	.333	.424	.265	2.1	96-1B 2	0.6
2011 (age 37)	265	26	10	0	9	34	29	60	1	0	-0.4	.241	.328	.412	-.088	.238	.324	.413	.257	0.3	65-1B 0	0.2
2012 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 40)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 41)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.210	.299	.372
vs RHP	.241	.341	.449
Split	-.031	-.042	-.076
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-7.5	0.0	0.7	$950,000	0.7	1.4
2010	-4.6	2.0	0.6	$1,050,000	1.4	1.6
2011	-5.4	0.0	0.2	$650,000	-0.6	1.3
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			1.6	$1,425,000	0.3	4.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.279	.255	.229	.258
2010	.278	.265	.236	.265
2011	.280	.263	.213	.257
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	25%	0%	36%
2010	61%	40%	17%
2011	82%	62%	10%
2012	90%	76%	3%
2013	93%	88%	1%
2014	99%	93%	0%
2015	100%	100%	0%

35

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jerry Willard	1995	52		11	Kevin Millar	2007	26
2	Ernie Young	2005	43		12	Scott McClain	2007	26
3	Walt Moryn	1961	38		13	Dan Driessen	1987	26
4	Fred McGriff	1999	37		14	Dale Long	1961	25
5	Alonzo Powell	2000	36		15	Bill White	1969	23
6	Phil Hiatt	2004	35		16	George Scott	1979	21
7	J.T. Snow	2003	34		17	John Mabry	2006	21
8	Tom Wilson	2006	32		18	Lee Stevens	2003	20
9	Mark Sweeney	2005	27		19	Eric Karros	2003	20
10	Bob Brenly	1989	27		20	Gates Brown	1974	20

Player Comments

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2005

Is he good enough to be a Ken Phelps All-Star? Tracy's better than some starting third basemen, and the Rockies have signed him to hang around and possibly replace Mark Sweeney. If he gets the playing time, he could put up some big numbers in XBH and Ks, so you know we love him. Something in the .275/.350/.500 range is probably a pretty good guess in Coors, though small sample size caveats apply.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	OTT	AAA	534	64	29	1	20	73	69	107	7	6	-3.0	.237	.337	.437	-.263	.190	.283	.356	.224	-23.1	107-1B 7	-1.1
2007	NWO	AAA	574	88	24	1	23	87	89	110	2	3	0.0	.271	.387	.472	-.160	.214	.322	.370	.246	-6.7	123-1B -4	-0.8
2008	LEH	AAA	507	71	34	0	22	85	65	96	5	0	-3.0	.288	.382	.521	-.016	.244	.334	.451	.271	15.0	102-1B 1	1.5

Historical Stats