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J.R. Towles
Houston Astros [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 25
6' 2"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Astros Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 J.R. Towles 5 11 .235 1 0 1 0 .311 .379 0.2
1   2009 Total 5 11 .235 1 0 1 0 .311 .379 0.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LEX A 321 39 19 2 12 55 21 46 13 5 -1.9 .317 .382 .525 -.216 .232 .276 .383 .228 -9.2 58-C -1 0.0
2007 SLM A+ 115 14 3 2 0 11 12 15 3 5 0.0 .200 .339 .278 -.537 .152 .243 .212 .156 -12.9 26-C -2 -0.9
2007 CCH AA 257 47 12 2 11 49 23 35 9 4 0.0 .324 .425 .551 .098 .282 .361 .480 .286 15.7 46-C -4 1.5
2007 ROU AAA 50 5 0 0 0 2 4 7 2 4 0.0 .279 .354 .279 -.285 .250 .327 .250 .198 -2.3 12-C -3 -0.5
2007 HOU MLB 44 9 5 0 1 12 3 1 0 1 -0.2 .375 .432 .575 .398 .375 .432 .550 .323 6.1 11-C 1 0.6
2008 ROU AAA 192 28 8 2 7 28 13 31 4 3 -0.7 .304 .370 .500 -.040 .267 .326 .430 .258 4.2 45-C -1 0.8
2008 HOU MLB 171 10 5 0 4 16 16 40 0 0 -0.4 .137 .250 .253 -.458 .136 .253 .265 .183 -11.9 46-C 0 -0.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:39 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 385 53 21 2 14 45 32 74 7 3 0.2 .271 .345 .465 .067 .275 .348 .477 .281 21.7 92-C -2 3.3
75o 370 45 19 2 12 41 29 74 6 3 0.1 .252 .325 .426 -.037 .256 .327 .438 .263 11.7 89-C -1 2.4
60o 356 38 17 1 10 37 26 73 5 3 0.1 .235 .306 .392 -.128 .239 .308 .402 .246 3.6 86-C -1 1.6
50o 345 34 16 1 9 35 25 73 4 3 0.1 .224 .293 .369 -.190 .227 .295 .379 .233 -1.6 83-C -1 1.1
40o 338 30 15 1 8 33 24 72 4 3 0.1 .216 .283 .352 -.236 .219 .285 .361 .224 -5.2 81-C -1 0.8
25o 332 29 14 1 7 32 23 72 4 3 0.1 .210 .277 .341 -.265 .213 .279 .350 .217 -7.5 80-C -1 0.6
10o 313 23 12 1 6 27 20 71 3 3 0.1 .192 .256 .304 -.363 .195 .258 .312 .194 -14.3 76-C -1 -0.2
Weighted Mean 349 36 16 1 9 37 26 72 5 3 0.1 .231 .301 .383 -.157 .234 .303 .393 .240 3.6 84-C -1 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

38%

51%

22%

20%

1.05

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 25) 349 36 16 1 9 37 26 72 5 3 0.1 .231 .301 .383 -.157 .234 .303 .393 .240 3.6 84-C -1 1.6
2010 (age 26) 364 38 18 1 10 40 26 73 4 2 0.2 .233 .301 .388 -.159 .233 .299 .394 .242 2.3 87-C -2 1.4
2011 (age 27) 348 37 17 1 10 38 28 67 4 2 0.2 .234 .307 .392 -.144 .234 .305 .397 .245 2.9 84-C -1 1.4
2012 (age 28) 286 28 13 1 8 31 23 57 4 2 0.2 .233 .310 .386 -.147 .233 .308 .391 .245 2.4 70-C -1 1.3
2013 (age 29) 357 39 16 1 10 40 28 70 5 3 0.2 .238 .314 .393 -.128 .238 .311 .398 .248 3.3 86-C -1 1.3
2014 (age 30) 341 36 16 1 10 39 28 67 4 2 0.2 .234 .309 .390 -.144 .233 .307 .395 .245 2.2 82-C -1 1.0
2015 (age 31) 341 36 14 1 10 38 28 63 5 2 0.2 .232 .309 .381 -.156 .232 .307 .386 .244 1.5 82-C -2 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .246 .315 .406
vs RHP .227 .295 .369
Split +.019 +.020 +.036
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 1.5 -1.0 1.6 $1,825,000 2.7 8.6
2010 2.4 -2.0 1.4 $1,675,000 0.3 6.4
2011 3.4 -1.0 1.4 $1,925,000 2.2 8.7
2012 2.8 -1.0 1.3 $1,900,000 1.7 8.6
2013 4.6 -1.0 1.3 $2,275,000 3.2 8.7
2014 3.5 -1.0 1.0 $1,875,000 1.4 5.0
2015 2.8 -2.0 0.9 $1,775,000 0.8 5.7
Peak 8.1 $7,100,000 11.5 46.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .263 .233 .217 .240
2010 .256 .241 .213 .242
2011 .259 .233 .211 .245
2012 .267 .236 .211 .245
2013 .273 .245 .216 .248
2014 .276 .235 .205 .245
2015 .269 .230 .214 .244


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 20% 0% 38%
2010 34% 9% 34%
2011 43% 16% 33%
2012 49% 22% 36%
2013 55% 32% 30%
2014 60% 40% 25%
2015 62% 46% 19%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

65

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chris Stewart 2007 62 11 Angel Pena 2000 53
2 Dave Sax 1984 61 12 Terry McGriff 1989 52
3 Tom Prince 1990 59 13 Eli Marrero 1999 52
4 Bill Bathe 1986 59 14 Jack Fimple 1984 51
5 Chris Hoiles 1990 58 15 Bobby Wilson 2008 51
6 Mike Sweeney 1998 58 16 Kelly Stinnett 1995 48
7 Orlando Mercado 1987 58 17 John Ramos 1990 48
8 Don McCormack 1981 56 18 Julio Vinas 1998 48
9 Mike Diaz 1985 54 19 Joe Depastino 1999 46
10 Charlie O'Brien 1985 53 20 Tony Perez 1967 46

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Before getting too crazy about Towles' season, remember that he was getting owned by the Carolina League in May when a suspension opened up a job at Double-A Corpus Christi. He tore up the Texas League and eventually made it all the way to Houston for a few weeks. Towles' buzz is the result of spending his age-21 and -22 seasons in the Sally League and two good months in Double-A. As much as the Astros need to replace Ausmus, they also need to be realistic about their in-house alternatives.

2007

Towles has had an injury-plagued career so far--a broken finger here, a sore knee there. None of the injuries have been serious, but they`ve limited him to 165 games since being drafted in 2004. That`s a shame, because when Towles is healthy, he`s pretty damn good, with a career average of .311, 60 extra-base hits and very good defensive skills to boot. The only issue is that he turns 23 before spring training and has yet to get out of A-ball. He`s an unproven commodity to be sure, but an interesting one.


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