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Mike Timlin
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 42
6' 4"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Mid Mike Timlin 55 0 4.36 1.36 59 15 5 29 2 2 1 8.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 BOS MJ 7 3 13 81 0 80.3 86 20 59 2 46% .336 6 1.32 2.24 3.47 2.35 9.0 2.2 6.4 0.2 28.9 2.2 5.3
2006 BOS MJ 6 6 9 68 0 64.0 78 17 30 7 40% .324 -16 1.48 4.36 4.63 3.94 9.8 2.2 3.9 0.8 10.6 1.6 3.3
2007 PAW 3A 0 0 0 8 2 8.7 9 3 3 0 58% .310 -25 1.38 4.14 4.24 4.32 9.7 3.2 2.2 0.0 1.2 0.1
2007 BOS MJ 2 1 1 50 0 55.3 46 14 31 7 41% .244 -10 1.08 3.42 3.56 3.50 7.5 2.0 4.7 1.2 14.0 1.6 1.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:13 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 3 2 2 45 0 51.3 52 13 27 5 42% .280 -9 1.26 3.40 3.46 3.36 8.6 2.0 4.3 0.8 13.7 1.1 1.7
75o 3 2 2 43 0 48.7 51 13 26 5 43% .285 -11 1.30 3.81 3.72 3.76 8.9 2.1 4.4 0.9 10.6 0.9 1.4
60o 3 2 1 41 0 47.0 50 13 25 5 43% .288 -12 1.33 4.08 3.89 4.02 9.0 2.2 4.4 0.9 8.7 0.7 1.2
50o 2 2 1 40 0 46.0 50 13 24 5 43% .291 -12 1.36 4.27 4.01 4.21 9.1 2.3 4.4 0.9 7.4 0.6 1.1
40o 2 2 1 39 0 44.0 49 13 23 5 43% .295 -13 1.39 4.57 4.20 4.50 9.4 2.4 4.4 1.0 5.6 0.4 0.9
25o 2 2 1 34 0 39.3 46 13 21 5 43% .305 -16 1.48 5.40 4.72 5.30 9.8 2.6 4.4 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.5
10o 1 2 0 30 0 34.3 42 12 18 5 44% .315 -19 1.58 6.29 5.28 6.17 10.4 2.9 4.4 1.2 -2.7 -0.2 0.1
Weighted Mean 2 2 1 36 0 41.7 45 12 22 4 43% .292 -13 1.36 4.36 4.05 4.30 9.1 2.3 4.4 0.9 6.5 0.5 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

5%

13%

48%

25%

0.84

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 42) 2 2 1 36 0 41.7 45 12 22 4 43% .292 -13 1.36 4.36 4.05 4.30 9.1 2.3 4.4 0.9 6.5 0.5 1.0
2009 (age 43) 1 1 1 23 0 26.7 31 8 15 3 44% .306 -14 1.44 4.57 4.46 4.47 9.8 2.4 4.6 1.0 2.4 0.3 0.4
2010 (age 44)
-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 45)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 46)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 47)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 48)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .270 .342 .411
vs RHB .249 .309 .378
Split +.021 +.033 +.033
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.0 $2,075,000 6.6 1.7
2009 0.4 $975,000 2.5 1.6
2010 0.2 $600,000 0.9 0.3
2011 0.1 $575,000 0.8 0.3
2012 0.0 $425,000 0.1 0.1
2013 0.0 $450,000 0.2 0.1
2014 0.0 $450,000 0.2 0.0
Peak 1.8 $2,625,000 10.9 4.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.76 4.21 5.30 4.30
2009 3.13 5.61 8.50 4.47
2010
-- out of baseball --
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 25% 0% 5%
2009 69% 29% 11%
2010 85% 73% 5%
2011 96% 94% 5%
2012 95% 94% 5%
2013 98% 98% 5%
2014 98% 98% 5%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

16

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Kent Tekulve 1989 56 11 Dennis Eckersley 1997 38
2 Roberto Hernandez 2007 54 12 Rip Sewell 1949 38
3 Ellis Kinder 1956 51 13 Danny Darwin 1998 37
4 Dutch Leonard 1951 50 14 Rick Reuschel 1991 37
5 Rick Honeycutt 1996 47 15 Mike Morgan 2002 35
6 Doug Jones 1999 43 16 Don McMahon 1972 30
7 Woodie Fryman 1982 43 17 Terry Mulholland 2005 27
8 Art Fowler 1964 43 18 John Franco 2003 26
9 Jeff Fassero 2005 41 19 Murry Dickson 1958 24
10 Jim Kaat 1981 39 20 Joe Niekro 1987 23

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

With a cheekful of chaw and the disdainful sneer of a well-traveled relief pitcher, the straight-from-central-casting Timlin averaged 76 appearances and 80 innings of 3.88 ERA ball from 2003 to 2005, while striking out 6.7 per nine innings. That ended in 2006. His effectiveness took a sharp downturn after a late-May shoulder strain; Timlin posted a 1.40 ERA and 5.6 K/9 before, but a 5.64 ERA and 3.6 K/9 afterwards. For a 41-year-old, that isn`t a sign of good things to come. Still, the Sox inked him to a $2.8-million deal with incentives that could escalate it to $3.3 million with 70 appearances.

2006

There was a lot of hand-wringing in Boston when the team had to turn to Timlin to close games, since he supposedly did not have the "closer`s mentality." Predictably, he pitched as well in the 9th inning as he previously had pitched in the 8th. Timlin has never been a great pitcher, but he has been one of the more dependable hurlers in the game for 14 years. Had he been used differently he might have saved 300 or more games, which would have landed him on a few All-Star teams without making him any more valuable than he already is. His 893 games are 17th on the all-time list, and he`s going to pass several more pitchers this year.

2005

One of the few relievers not voted off the island in 2003, Timlin managed to follow up that solid campaign with a good 2004 season as one of the three decent pitchers in the Boston pen. At 39, he's pitching as well as he has in his career, but obviously his age dramatically increases the risk of collapse at any time. His performance last year kicked in his option for 2005, where the Sox hope he'll again combine with Foulke and Embree to pick up the bulk of the relief innings, after which they'll wish him happy trails.

2003

The most inexplicable part of the Scott Rolen trade, Timlin had one of his periodic solid seasons. Even so, he wasn’t worth what he was paid and he was never likely to re-sign with the team. Ed Wade’s fetish with veteran relievers badly burned the team here; even with a farm system as thin as the Cardinals, the Phillies would have been better off trying to get another young player instead of Timlin. The Red Sox signed him to a one-year deal, hoping Timlin can duplicate his 2002 success.

2002

Timlin has good stuff, knows how to use it, and will likely be in a role in 2002 similar to the one he's filled for years. One thing that's worrisome is his strikeout rate, which took a pretty notable drop. He gave up nearly a third of his runs for the entire season in a one-week stretch against the Cubs and Padres at the end of August.

2001

He's a solid reliever who was miscast in the role of closer. Mike Timlin has respectable stuff but suffers from a somewhat straight fastball and has been raked over the coals by fans who seem to think he always gives up the big hit at the wrong time. There's no reason he won't continue to be productive as a setup man. He's under contract for two more years. I'd make him a setup guy and leave him there.

2000

Timlin was a big part of the Orioles' disappointing season, as he took until the All-Star break to find a decent pitching rhythm. He claims the problems started when at times he was asked to pitch in the eighth inning. After the break, he never pitched more than one inning, converted 18 of 19 save opportunities and had a 1.40 ERA. Perhaps the Orioles should listen to what he says.

1999

Had a great second half, which he parlayed into a new deal with Baltimore for four years. Rob Neyer pointed out to me this summer that Timlin falls apart with men on, which is not a desirable trait in an expensive "closer."

1998

Woodward and Piniella were hungry for a reliable, effective reliever last year, and Timlin wasn’t a bad acquisition. He’ll continue to be effective in whatever bullpen role he spends time in. Fastball looks as good as ever. The problem is that he’ll eventually want closer money.

1997

The ultimate ersatz closer, or proof that the job doesn’t take the “heart of a lion” or whatever bilge you’ll hear about makeup. Jeff Reardon had makeup. He could lather it on from the compact he kept in his hip pocket instead of an emery board. It still didn’t matter, because when push came to shove, he’s paid to pitch, not be Tammy Faye Bakker. Timlin isn’t that bad, but he’s being generously rewarded for mediocrity and a rare bout of extended health.

1996

Look under the Blue Jays dictionary for "enigma" and you'll see Mike Timlin's face. After a solid rookie year in 1991 where he demonstrated power stuff, he got hurt and has struggled to regain the form. The great thing about Timlin is that he's still striking out people by the bushel and gives a glimmer of hope that he's turned the corner. After 1994 and 1995 you'd think he'd be primed to close out games for the Jays, but he seems to blow every opportunity when the game is on the line. This is just subjective of course, but it seems like every time Mike Timlin looks like he's gonna do it, he breaks your heart. Give the closer job to Risley and see if Timlin can set him up. He's tough on right handers (.175 OBA allowed last year).


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