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Curtis Thigpen
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 26
5' 11"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NHP AA 373 49 25 5 5 36 52 61 5 1 -1.8 .259 .370 .421 -.109 .233 .332 .387 .255 1.1 73-C -6 0.8
2006 SYR AAA 56 3 3 0 1 9 2 9 0 1 -0.4 .264 .304 .377 -.291 .226 .268 .340 .196 -2.8 14-C -3 -0.5
2007 SYR AAA 202 20 10 0 3 20 17 23 1 0 -0.4 .285 .348 .391 -.159 .258 .317 .357 .241 -2.3 39-C -10 -0.8
2007 TOR MLB 110 13 5 0 0 11 8 17 2 0 0.8 .238 .294 .287 -.330 .228 .291 .277 .206 -3.5 14-C 3 11-1B 0 0.0
2008 SYR AAA 395 28 23 0 3 41 21 58 2 1 -0.8 .222 .267 .310 -.423 .200 .242 .288 .182 -34.6 57-C -6 31-1B -4 -3.3
2008 TOR MLB 21 2 0 0 1 1 1 8 0 0 0.6 .176 .263 .353 -.312 .176 .263 .353 .221 -0.6 6-C 0 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:11 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 413 50 22 2 10 44 35 73 3 1 -0.5 .264 .332 .414 -.036 .265 .334 .424 .266 10.6 98-C -7 2.2
75o 385 38 19 1 7 38 31 70 2 1 -0.4 .238 .304 .367 -.167 .239 .306 .375 .241 -1.9 92-C -7 0.9
60o 362 30 16 1 6 33 27 68 2 1 -0.4 .219 .283 .331 -.265 .220 .285 .339 .220 -10.0 87-C -7 0.0
50o 347 26 15 1 5 30 25 66 2 1 -0.4 .207 .270 .310 -.324 .208 .272 .317 .207 -14.4 84-C -7 -0.5
40o 336 23 14 1 4 28 24 65 2 1 -0.4 .199 .262 .296 -.363 .200 .263 .303 .197 -17.0 81-C -7 -0.8
25o 319 20 12 1 4 25 22 63 2 1 -0.3 .187 .248 .274 -.424 .188 .250 .280 .182 -20.7 77-C -7 -1.3
10o 274 12 9 1 2 17 17 57 1 1 -0.3 .163 .220 .228 -.549 .163 .221 .234 .142 -25.8 67-C -6 -2.0
Weighted Mean 352 28 16 1 5 31 26 67 2 1 -0.4 .212 .276 .319 -.282 .213 .278 .327 .212 -11.7 85-C -7 -0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

47%

39%

21%

1.22

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 26) 352 28 16 1 5 31 26 67 2 1 -0.4 .212 .276 .319 -.282 .213 .278 .327 .212 -11.7 85-C -7 -0.2
2010 (age 27) 340 26 16 1 5 30 24 64 2 1 -0.3 .211 .273 .319 -.292 .215 .278 .330 .211 -10.4 82-C -6 -0.2
2011 (age 28) 288 21 13 1 4 26 21 53 2 1 -0.2 .213 .277 .318 -.285 .217 .282 .329 .212 -8.0 70-C -5 0.0
2012 (age 29) 293 23 14 1 5 28 22 55 2 1 -0.1 .221 .284 .341 -.234 .225 .290 .354 .223 -4.7 71-C -7 0.0
2013 (age 30) 275 20 12 1 5 25 21 52 2 0 -0.1 .213 .281 .323 -.271 .217 .286 .334 .216 -5.8 67-C -6 0.0
2014 (age 31) 291 22 13 1 5 26 23 54 2 0 -0.1 .215 .280 .328 -.265 .219 .285 .339 .218 -4.1 71-C -5 0.0
2015 (age 32) 268 19 12 1 4 24 21 51 1 0 0.0 .216 .281 .326 -.264 .220 .286 .338 .218 -3.0 66-C -7 0.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .230 .297 .351
vs RHP .208 .268 .306
Split +.022 +.029 +.045
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -0.2 $400,000 -13.1 1.5
2010 -12.1 -6.0 -0.2 $400,000 -11.5 1.4
2011 -9.8 -5.0 0.0 $400,000 -9.1 0.9
2012 -7.0 -7.0 0.0 $400,000 -6.8 1.5
2013 -8.4 -6.0 0.0 $400,000 -7.1 0.3
2014 -8.5 -5.0 0.0 $400,000 -4.6 0.1
2015 -7.8 -7.0 0.0 $400,000 -3.5 0.1
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .241 .207 .182 .212
2010 .242 .218 .179 .211
2011 .248 .212 .161 .212
2012 .260 .221 .173 .223
2013 .243 .208 .156 .216
2014 .238 .217 .191 .218
2015 .250 .210 .155 .218


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 21% 0% 33%
2010 41% 10% 34%
2011 50% 21% 33%
2012 58% 32% 32%
2013 65% 38% 27%
2014 71% 52% 25%
2015 79% 64% 15%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Mike Durant 1995 60 11 Jason Jaramillo 2008 50
2 Scooter Tucker 1993 60 12 Walt McKeel 1998 50
3 Lou Palmisano 2008 60 13 Mike Ryan 1968 49
4 Brian Johnson 1994 57 14 Koyie Hill 2005 49
5 Dave Vangorder 1983 55 15 Nick Trzesniak 2007 49
6 Sean Mulligan 1996 53 16 Kirt Manwaring 1991 48
7 Jerry Grote 1968 52 17 Jim Sundberg 1977 48
8 Jim Campanis 1993 52 18 Jeff Torborg 1968 46
9 Mike Fitzgerald 1986 51 19 Jeff Tackett 1992 46
10 Bruce Benedict 1981 51 20 Jim Gaudet 1981 46

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The shape of Thigpen's performance is a bit different from that of Robinson Diaz's, but the two end up in about the same place. Thigpen, however, gets higher marks for his defense, particularly for working with pitchers. A job-sharing arrangement with Gregg Zaun is likely this year, with Thigpen having an opportunity to win the job if his bat comes around. As you can see, the first few drafts of the J.P. Ricciardi era, which focused on collegians, were wildly unproductive. We praised the approach at the time, but as Rany Jazayerli has noted, there's not much edge in drafting collegians any longer, and very little sense in emphasizing one subset of players over another.

2007

Thigpen, who played mostly first base at Texas behind Taylor Teagarden, has gone from being a bit of novelty to an organizational favorite. His defense is surprisingly well-regarded, and, while the home runs haven`t come yet, he`s hit for enough doubles to project for 10-15 homers annually in the big leagues to go with a decent OBP. He`s not a future All-Star, but could be a future big league regular, and, given the lack of catching depth in Toronto, that chance could come sooner rather than later.

2006

Primarily a first baseman in college (Taylor Teagarden was doing the catching for the Texas Longhorns), Thigpen has endeared himself to the Jays with very impressive plate discipline and the hints of power to come. He`s one of the youngest hitters in the system to reach Double-A, and another solid season could put him on the road to Toronto, where just like everywhere else, it`s impossible to have too many catchers who can hit.


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