Chris Stewart

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:14 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	358	43	18	1	8	34	29	50	2	1	-0.7	.265	.329	.407	-.053	.265	.330	.416	.261	10.1	86-C 7	3.2
75^o	340	34	16	1	6	30	26	51	2	1	-0.6	.242	.305	.363	-.173	.242	.306	.370	.238	0.1	82-C 7	2.1
60^o	330	30	15	1	5	28	24	51	2	1	-0.6	.231	.292	.340	-.232	.231	.293	.347	.226	-4.5	80-C 6	1.6
50^o	321	27	14	1	5	26	23	51	2	1	-0.6	.220	.281	.320	-.285	.221	.282	.327	.214	-8.4	78-C 6	1.2
40^o	315	25	13	1	4	25	22	51	2	1	-0.5	.215	.275	.309	-.315	.215	.276	.316	.208	-10.4	76-C 6	1.0
25^o	299	20	11	1	3	22	20	51	1	1	-0.5	.199	.258	.278	-.397	.199	.258	.284	.187	-15.6	73-C 6	0.4
10^o	272	14	9	0	1	18	17	50	1	1	-0.4	.177	.233	.235	-.513	.177	.233	.240	.153	-21.5	67-C 5	-0.4
Weighted Mean	315	26	13	1	5	26	22	50	2	1	-0.5	.221	.282	.321	-.265	.221	.282	.328	.214	-8.2	76-C 7	1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
22%	43%	38%	27%	1.12

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 27)	315	26	13	1	5	26	22	50	2	1	-0.5	.221	.282	.321	-.265	.221	.282	.328	.214	-8.2	76-C 7	1.3
2010 (age 28)	299	24	13	1	4	24	21	47	2	1	-0.4	.221	.283	.319	-.270	.225	.288	.329	.214	-6.4	73-C 8	1.1
2011 (age 29)	310	27	13	1	5	26	22	47	2	1	-0.3	.229	.292	.332	-.231	.233	.296	.343	.222	-3.5	75-C 8	1.1
2012 (age 30)	310	26	13	1	5	25	22	45	1	1	-0.3	.224	.287	.327	-.249	.228	.291	.338	.218	-4.0	75-C 7	1.0
2013 (age 31)	324	29	13	1	5	29	24	45	2	1	-0.2	.232	.294	.332	-.225	.236	.299	.343	.223	-2.6	78-C 7	0.9
2014 (age 32)	283	23	11	0	4	25	21	39	1	1	-0.2	.228	.290	.324	-.246	.231	.295	.335	.219	-2.8	69-C 7	0.8
2015 (age 33)	305	27	13	1	5	27	21	42	1	1	-0.1	.235	.295	.336	-.217	.238	.299	.347	.224	-1.3	74-C 6	0.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.237	.300	.347
vs RHP	.216	.275	.309
Split	+.020	+.025	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-6.1	7.0	1.3	$1,425,000	-0.9	2.1
2010	-5.8	8.0	1.1	$1,425,000	0.1	6.6
2011	-3.6	8.0	1.1	$1,625,000	1.8	6.9
2012	-4.9	7.0	1.0	$1,575,000	1.2	5.0
2013	-3.5	7.0	0.9	$1,625,000	1.8	5.3
2014	-4.2	7.0	0.8	$1,575,000	1.3	4.7
2015	-3.0	6.0	0.5	$1,425,000	1.3	2.5
Peak			6.2	$5,300,000	6.4	30.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.238	.214	.187	.214
2010	.246	.213	.186	.214
2011	.245	.220	.190	.222
2012	.246	.217	.187	.218
2013	.248	.220	.195	.223
2014	.245	.220	.173	.219
2015	.242	.229	.197	.224

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	27%	0%	22%
2010	37%	14%	26%
2011	50%	25%	23%
2012	57%	34%	20%
2013	59%	45%	18%
2014	66%	49%	16%
2015	76%	67%	15%

63

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Larry Gonzales	1994	58		11	Jim Price	1969	49
2	Steven Herz	1984	58		12	Chris Turner	1996	48
3	Scooter Tucker	1994	57		13	Chad Moeller	2002	47
4	Damian Miller	1997	55		14	Andy Stewart	1998	47
5	Gary Bennett	1999	54		15	Marv Foley	1981	47
6	Brad King	2002	54		16	Mike Hubbard	1998	47
7	John Flaherty	1995	52		17	Jeff Horn	1998	46
8	Terry McGriff	1991	50		18	Mike Matheny	1998	45
9	Mark Poole	1986	49		19	Tim Marx	1996	45
10	Dusty Wathan	2001	49		20	Keith Osik	1996	45

Player Comments

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2007

Chris Stewart is a catching prospect with a slingshot of an arm and a BB gun of a bat. There`s not much to get excited about here, but there`s also no reason that Stewart can`t be a perfectly adequate second-string catcher in the big leagues.

2006

Be skeptical of the modest power breakout at Birmingham; it came from a guy who got a lot of days off, and whose bat was regarded as a joke by most observers coming into the season. Still, for someone who projects at a .217 EqA, Stewart`s likely to have a big league career, as he has one of the four or five best catching arms in baseball.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	CHR	AAA	301	40	17	3	4	28	15	35	3	0	-2.3	.265	.314	.393	-.212	.238	.284	.372	.229	-8.0	77-C 5	0.9
2007	OKL	AAA	172	18	8	0	2	21	12	19	0	2	0.0	.242	.294	.333	-.406	.206	.257	.277	.185	-13.5	43-C 5	0.0
2007	TEX	MLB	43	4	2	0	0	3	3	6	0	0	-0.2	.243	.300	.297	-.279	.243	.300	.297	.217	-0.8	12-C 1	0.1
2008	SWB	AAA	309	32	19	0	2	24	28	38	2	1	1.3	.279	.352	.371	-.185	.250	.320	.337	.234	-5.8	81-C 11	1.9

Historical Stats