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Geovany Soto
Chicago Cubs [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 26
6' 1"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cubs Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 7 Geovany Soto 70 160 .254 17 6 22 0 .349 .449 5.8
1   2009 Total 70 160 .254 17 6 22 0 .349 .449 5.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 IOW AAA 391 34 21 0 6 38 41 74 0 1 -0.5 .272 .353 .386 -.175 .244 .318 .350 .236 -6.3 96-C -4 0.2
2006 CHN MLB 26 1 1 0 0 2 0 5 0 0 -0.1 .200 .231 .240 -.508 .200 .231 .240 .145 -2.3 6-C 0 -0.2
2007 IOW AAA 449 75 31 3 26 109 53 94 0 0 -3.1 .353 .424 .652 .272 .308 .381 .569 .316 48.6 70-C -2 20-1B -3 4.4
2007 CHN MLB 60 12 6 0 3 8 5 14 0 0 -0.3 .389 .433 .667 .535 .370 .417 .667 .351 10.6 14-C 2 1.1
2008 CHN MLB 563 66 35 2 23 86 62 121 0 1 -4.0 .285 .364 .504 .117 .278 .359 .500 .291 39.9 128-C 4 5.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:23 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 609 105 38 1 34 106 76 124 1 1 -3.1 .318 .406 .592 .341 .315 .403 .592 .329 72.3 142-C 3 9.1
75o 566 86 34 1 29 92 66 117 1 1 -2.8 .302 .388 .554 .247 .299 .384 .554 .313 54.8 133-C 2 7.4
60o 541 77 32 1 26 85 62 114 1 1 -2.6 .294 .377 .533 .194 .290 .373 .532 .304 45.8 127-C 2 6.5
50o 525 71 31 1 24 81 59 111 1 1 -2.5 .288 .370 .519 .160 .285 .367 .519 .299 40.2 124-C 2 5.9
40o 508 65 29 1 22 76 55 108 1 1 -2.4 .282 .363 .504 .124 .279 .359 .504 .292 34.7 120-C 2 5.3
25o 452 49 25 1 17 62 46 99 0 1 -2.1 .263 .340 .458 .009 .260 .336 .458 .272 18.8 107-C 1 3.6
10o 378 32 20 1 11 45 34 85 0 0 -1.6 .239 .310 .402 -.133 .236 .307 .402 .245 3.2 90-C 0 1.8
Weighted Mean 551 76 32 1 25 85 61 116 1 1 -2.5 .287 .370 .518 .179 .284 .366 .518 .297 42.3 129-C 2 5.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

63%

16%

11%

0.94

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 26) 551 76 32 1 25 85 61 116 1 1 -2.5 .287 .370 .518 .179 .284 .366 .518 .297 42.3 129-C 2 5.8
2010 (age 27) 572 78 32 1 26 92 64 121 1 1 -2.2 .281 .363 .506 .104 .274 .355 .499 .292 33.7 134-C 0 5.2
2011 (age 28) 533 71 28 1 24 84 63 113 1 1 -2.0 .280 .367 .501 .104 .273 .358 .494 .292 30.7 125-C -1 4.6
2012 (age 29) 521 69 29 1 23 83 59 108 1 0 -1.9 .286 .369 .509 .122 .279 .360 .502 .295 31.1 123-C -3 4.3
2013 (age 30) 489 61 26 1 21 76 55 102 1 0 -1.6 .283 .366 .495 .097 .275 .358 .488 .291 24.7 115-C 0 3.7
2014 (age 31) 459 55 25 1 19 69 53 95 1 0 -1.3 .279 .364 .486 .079 .272 .355 .480 .288 19.8 109-C -4 2.9
2015 (age 32) 485 60 25 1 21 74 58 102 1 0 -1.1 .278 .363 .494 .086 .271 .354 .487 .289 18.3 115-C -4 2.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .302 .388 .538
vs RHP .282 .360 .498
Split +.021 +.028 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 36.6 2.0 5.8 $13,500,000 40.8 58.9
2010 34.9 0.0 5.2 $10,925,000 30.9 44.4
2011 32.8 -1.0 4.6 $9,900,000 26.5 38.8
2012 33.6 -3.0 4.3 $10,250,000 25.8 38.5
2013 29.0 0.0 3.7 $9,150,000 21.9 31.0
2014 25.7 -4.0 2.9 $6,925,000 15.6 24.0
2015 28.0 -4.0 2.6 $6,800,000 14.4 21.2
Peak 26.5 $49,300,000 161.4 235.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .313 .299 .272 .297
2010 .311 .288 .273 .292
2011 .314 .285 .267 .292
2012 .309 .294 .266 .295
2013 .308 .290 .267 .291
2014 .310 .285 .258 .288
2015 .301 .284 .259 .289


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 11% 0% 26%
2010 17% 3% 20%
2011 22% 5% 24%
2012 26% 6% 19%
2013 35% 13% 15%
2014 45% 27% 15%
2015 50% 29% 10%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

48

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 John Orsino 1964 49 11 Ivan Calderon 1988 31
2 Johnny Romano 1961 47 12 Joe Torre 1966 31
3 Earl Battey 1961 46 13 John Ellis 1975 31
4 Lance Parrish 1982 44 14 Ryan Garko 2007 31
5 Earl Williams 1974 42 15 Steve Yeager 1975 30
6 Chris Shelton 2006 42 16 Charles Johnson 1997 30
7 Gus Triandos 1957 39 17 Ray Fosse 1973 30
8 Jody Davis 1983 35 18 Jim Pagliaroni 1964 30
9 Carlton Fisk 1974 34 19 Mo Vaughn 1994 29
10 Javy Lopez 1997 33 20 Dave Duncan 1972 28

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Without qualification, Soto is one of the more valuable prospects in baseball. Catchers who can slug in the .450 to .500 range are unusual enough, but slugging catchers who also boast a well-above-average throwing arm and a pretty good batting eye are among the elite. PECOTA sees some potential for a slightly late, Jorge Posada-style peak, but even at his present level of ability, he's already the best catcher in the division.

2007

Soto got the barest look-see from the Cubs last September, as Baker chose to run Blanco out there every day after Barrett`s injury rather than give Soto a chance. Soto didn`t show much and really shouldn`t have been expected to, but it would have been nice to see the Cubs at least try to evaluate young guys like him while playing out the string. If Henry Blanco goes 10-for-20 in the last week of September, it`s fun for his family but does nothing for the future of the franchise.

2006

A nimble backstop with a strong arm, Soto might be ready to replace Henry Blanco right now, not that that`s much of a standard. The question is whether Soto`s quick bat and decent patience at the plate will be good enough to make him more than a career reserve. He also has some experience at the infield and outfield spots, a quirky (or Quirk-y) virtue for a backup catcher.

2005

Soto, who has a fine arm and a good defensive reputation, hit just enough at West Tennessee to get himself designated as the team's de jure catcher of the future and added to the 40-man roster. His numbers weren't anything special, but he had a better season than Jeff Goldbach, who hit .233 for the Joliet Jackhammers, or Pat Cline, who was June's Employee of the Month at the Topeka Bed, Bath and Beyond.


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