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Curt Schilling
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 41
6' 5"
235 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Spot Curt Schilling 50 8 4.33 1.31 55 10 6 35 3 2 0 7.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 PAW 3A 0 2 0 6 3 19.0 27 3 21 3 35% .400 -2 1.58 6.63 9.39 8.83 14.5 2.1 7.8 1.6 -6.2 -0.3
2005 BOS MJ 8 8 9 32 11 93.3 121 22 87 12 36% .381 11 1.53 5.69 5.59 5.30 11.0 2.0 8.1 1.1 2.1 0.0 2.6
2006 BOS MJ 15 7 0 31 31 204.0 220 28 183 28 41% .328 25 1.22 3.97 3.94 3.39 8.9 1.2 7.6 1.1 48.6 5.1 7.9
2007 PAW 3A 0 0 0 3 3 15.0 8 0 18 0 50% .242 42 0.53 0.00 0.15 0.00 5.7 0.6 8.2 0.0 8.9 0.6
2007 BOS MJ 9 8 0 24 24 151.0 165 23 101 21 39% .301 10 1.25 3.87 4.66 4.04 9.9 1.2 5.6 1.2 33.5 4.3 4.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:07 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 10 5 0 23 23 139.0 142 27 98 15 43% .292 15 1.21 3.46 3.54 3.39 8.6 1.6 5.8 0.9 36.5 4.7 4.7
75o 9 6 0 22 22 130.0 138 27 92 16 43% .300 13 1.27 3.96 3.90 3.86 9.0 1.7 5.8 1.1 26.6 3.6 3.7
60o 8 6 0 21 21 125.7 137 26 89 16 43% .303 12 1.30 4.18 4.07 4.07 9.2 1.7 5.8 1.1 22.5 3.2 3.3
50o 8 6 0 21 21 123.3 136 26 87 16 43% .306 11 1.31 4.32 4.17 4.20 9.3 1.7 5.8 1.2 20.1 2.9 3.1
40o 7 6 0 20 20 117.0 133 26 83 17 43% .311 10 1.35 4.67 4.43 4.53 9.6 1.8 5.8 1.2 14.2 2.3 2.5
25o 6 7 0 19 19 109.0 129 25 77 17 43% .318 7 1.40 5.13 4.76 4.96 10.0 1.9 5.9 1.3 7.5 1.6 1.8
10o 5 7 0 25 15 92.0 117 23 65 17 43% .333 -2 1.52 6.15 5.52 5.91 10.8 2.0 5.9 1.6 -4.5 0.2 0.5
Weighted Mean 8 6 0 22 22 126.7 140 27 90 17 43% .306 11 1.31 4.33 4.17 4.21 9.3 1.7 5.8 1.2 18.8 3.0 3.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

2%

30%

35%

34%

0.86

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 41) 8 6 0 22 22 126.7 140 27 90 17 43% .306 11 1.31 4.33 4.17 4.21 9.3 1.7 5.8 1.2 18.8 3.0 3.0
2009 (age 42) 7 7 0 30 18 116.3 135 23 71 15 42% .309 0 1.35 4.49 4.35 4.36 9.8 1.6 5.1 1.1 10.7 2.4 1.9
2010 (age 43) 4 5 0 24 11 75.3 94 15 44 12 41% .320 -7 1.44 5.00 5.00 4.79 10.5 1.6 4.8 1.4 4.0 1.1 0.9
2011 (age 44)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 45)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 46)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 47)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .269 .326 .435
vs RHB .264 .311 .422
Split +.005 +.014 +.014
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 3.0 $6,750,000 19.1 21.1
2009 1.9 $3,975,000 10.9 11.8
2010 0.9 $1,800,000 4.2 4.1
2011 0.5 $1,100,000 2.0 0.9
2012 0.3 $925,000 2.0 1.6
2013 0.2 $700,000 1.0 0.4
2014 0.1 $500,000 0.3 0.1
Peak 6.9 $12,025,000 38.3 39.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.86 4.20 4.96 4.21
2009 3.97 4.49 4.95 4.36
2010 4.00 5.05 5.81 4.79
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 34% 0% 2%
2009 58% 36% 7%
2010 77% 53% 7%
2011 81% 74% 3%
2012 96% 95% 1%
2013 96% 95% 1%
2014 98% 96% 1%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

14

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Rick Reuschel 1991 54 11 Dennis Martinez 1996 33
2 Gaylord Perry 1980 54 12 Ron Reed 1984 32
3 Bert Blyleven 1992 51 13 Luis Tiant 1982 32
4 Danny Darwin 1997 45 14 Tom Candiotti 1999 31
5 Tom Seaver 1986 43 15 Al Benton 1952 31
6 Don Sutton 1986 42 16 Steve Carlton 1986 29
7 David Wells 2005 42 17 Sal Maglie 1958 28
8 Jerry Koosman 1984 40 18 Dutch Leonard 1950 27
9 Roger Clemens 2004 39 19 Kenny Rogers 2006 26
10 Orlando Hernandez 2007 34 20 Tom Glavine 2007 24

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Though he didn`t reach the heights of 2004, Schilling sufficiently recovered from his famous ankle injury to reassert himself as a frontline starter in 2006, posting the top K/BB ratio of any ERA qualifier. That said, he showed some wear and tear. Early in the year, instability shortened his stride, causing his pitches to stay higher in the strike zone and offering clues that his ankle was still bothering him. A strained lat cost him a few September starts and may have factored into some second-half struggles (5.04 ERA over his final 11 starts). Still, simply by proving that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated, Schilling`s 2006 has to be counted as a success, and while the normal precautions apply to a 40-year-old pitcher, he should be capable of a repeat in the finale of his four-year, $50.5-million deal.

2006

Although Red Sox Nation expects Schilling to be the ace of the rotation once again, there is plenty of reason to think that his ankle is never going to allow him to be the power pitcher he used to be. He`s a smart man and could probably gut through a couple of above-average seasons on finesse and guile. Although he remains a controversial figure wherever he goes, the story of his 2004 post-season becomes even more amazing as the extent of his injury becomes more apparent. It is said that an athlete should leave it "all" on the field. Schilling did just that.

2005

The Red Sox turned over seven players from the 2003 team that finished one pitch short of the World Series, but to hear some people tell it, if they'd only been able to bring in Schilling that would have been enough. Signer of one of the league's more interesting contracts, Schilling's 2005 salary jumps by $2 million and his $13 million option for 2007 was automatically vested the minute the Sox defeated the Cardinals. Signed to win the World Series, he delivered in storybook fashion. The only problem is that Boston is now stuck with the bill for a pitcher who's shown an increasing susceptibility to injuries and a declining strikeout rate through his age-40 season for a lot of money. For now, Schilling is still among the game's elite and the Sox are happy to trade the future risk for the present championship.

2003

America’s most famous Avalon Hill addict had another tremendous year, keeping up his half of the tremendous load. A rough September probably cost him the Cy Young, and advance scouting reports showed his velocity down toward the end of the season. If the D-Backs can find a way to give him 5% more rest, and maybe knock 20 innings off his season, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t continue to be a nostril-flaring, angry, viciously precise flamethrower for several seasons to come. An absolute blast to watch on the mound.

2002

It’s hard to believe that all the abuse Schilling suffered at the hands of Terry Francona in Philadelphia hasn’t had any ill effects on him, but it’s clear that that’s the case. After a decade of effectiveness between injuries, Schilling has been healthy for most of the last five years and is coming off of a year in which he was the second-best starting pitcher in baseball. That success is not likely to last, given his history, so it’s hard to blame the Diamondbacks for looking at 2001 as a one-shot deal.

2001

This is your basic problem player for any organization. My own half-baked theory is that watching Mitch Williams as he cost Curt Schilling his shot at a World Series ring has left Schilling unwilling to sit still when he thinks there’s an injustice that can be righted by him opening his mouth. He’ll almost never come off the mound if he can avoid it, fearful that those damned relievers are just going to blow the game, and he’d rather take the hit himself than get left with another might-have-been.

Only a manager with a lot of self-assurance is going to keep Schilling pitching effectively into his late thirties by making him learn to love those guys in the pen. Terry Francona was never going to stand up to Schilling, and I doubt Bob Brenly will, either. Schilling is smart (hey, he’s the world’s most famous "Squad Leader" player, which is like passing the bar exam, only harder) and outspoken, which makes him a natural target for beat writers hungry for quotes or controversy. When things go sour, he’ll be the first to complain; on an old, bad team, that’s going to be a problem. At his best, Roger Clemens Lite; just not a good bet to age well.

2000

The workload finally caught up to him last year. The team claims that the shoulder surgery he underwent in the offseason was minor, and that he should be back in mid-May. If the Phillies don't change how they use him, though, he may be back on the disabled list by September. Since his effectiveness frequently drops off sharply after 120 pitches anyway, there's really no reason not to change.

1999

Worth twice what they pay him, as he's now thrown over 700 innings of sub-3 DT-ERA ball over the last three years. Signing one more established starter may have the ripple effect of reducing Schilling's innings if the bullpen's workload drops on the days he isn’t pitching, and given Schilling's history, that should be at the front of Wade's mind this winter.

1998

What can I add that you don’t already know...an NL right-handed strikeout record, no... big contract extension through 2000, no... hey, he stole his first base last year. That’s probably something.

1997

In 1995 he underwent surgery for a torn labrum, similar to what Met pitchers Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson underwent last September. Philly fans can be delighted that the results have been so successful for Curt Schilling; I’m not sure they’d be as pleased if it works for the other guys.

1996

If he's healthy, he'll win. He can move his fastball at will, cutting or sinking, with excellent control. Although there's no shortage of reasons, losing Schilling probably ruined the Phillies' season. A good indication of how Jim Fregosi uses his pitchers: occasionally Schilling will run up some high pitch counts, but he hasn't worked on three days' rest in over five years. Another Phillies disappointment: Schilling usually has a great second half, with an ERA more than a run lower over the last five years. The injury put the kibosh on that happening again.


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