Dane Sardinha

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 2:06 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	289	29	13	1	8	29	19	77	2	0	-1.1	.241	.297	.386	-.149	.241	.298	.399	.243	1.8	71-C 0	1.3
75^o	269	21	11	1	6	25	16	74	2	0	-0.9	.211	.264	.337	-.294	.211	.266	.348	.213	-7.4	66-C 0	0.4
60^o	259	18	10	1	5	23	15	72	2	0	-0.8	.198	.250	.315	-.357	.198	.251	.325	.198	-11.0	64-C 0	0.0
50^o	248	15	9	1	5	20	14	70	1	0	-0.8	.185	.234	.292	-.425	.184	.236	.301	.180	-14.4	61-C 0	-0.4
40^o	233	12	8	0	4	17	12	68	1	0	-0.7	.169	.217	.266	-.500	.169	.218	.274	.158	-17.7	58-C 0	-0.8
25^o	198	8	6	0	3	11	9	60	1	0	-0.5	.143	.187	.222	-.628	.143	.188	.229	.106	-20.9	50-C 0	-1.3
10^o	143	4	4	0	1	4	6	47	0	0	-0.3	.117	.156	.178	-.756	.117	.157	.184	.023	-19.4	38-C 0	-1.2
Weighted Mean	235	14	9	0	4	19	13	67	1	0	-0.7	.180	.229	.284	-.429	.180	.231	.293	.174	-14.5	58-C 1	-0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
58%	63%	31%	40%	1.50

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 30)	235	14	9	0	4	19	13	67	1	0	-0.7	.180	.229	.284	-.429	.180	.231	.293	.174	-14.5	58-C 1	-0.3
2010 (age 31)	227	12	9	1	4	18	11	63	1	0	-0.4	.179	.224	.277	-.456	.181	.229	.289	.167	-10.1	57-C 1	-0.2
2011 (age 32)	202	12	8	1	4	20	11	54	1	0	-0.3	.183	.236	.299	-.401	.185	.241	.313	.185	-5.5	51-C -1	0.0
2012 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.197	.251	.313
vs RHP	.176	.223	.273
Split	+.020	+.028	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-12.6	1.0	-0.3	$400,000	-14.6	0.5
2010	-13.2	1.0	-0.2	$400,000	-9.8	0.3
2011	-9.0	-1.0	0.0	$400,000	-5.2	0.0
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.213	.180	.106	.174
2010	.215	.190	.121	.167
2011	.217	.185	.154	.185
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	40%	0%	58%
2010	58%	38%	52%
2011	68%	55%	41%
2012	83%	67%	37%
2013	92%	80%	40%
2014	97%	90%	34%
2015	99%	95%	29%

35

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dann Bilardello	1989	49		11	Alan Cockrell	1993	28
2	John Orton	1996	47		12	Walt McKeel	2002	28
3	Ben Davis	2007	45		13	Joe Szekely	1991	26
4	Marc Sullivan	1988	36		14	Carlos Hernandez	1997	23
5	Ronn Reynolds	1988	35		15	Dee Brown	2008	22
6	Tom Nevers	2001	31		16	Rick Wrona	1994	22
7	Tom Nieto	1991	29		17	Dave Vangorder	1987	22
8	Bruce Robinson	1984	29		18	Danny Ardoin	2004	21
9	Eric Christopherson	1999	29		19	Marc Hill	1982	21
10	Andy Allanson	1992	29		20	Fausto Tejero	1999	20

Player Comments

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2005

A strong defensive catcher with lousy plate discipline and decent pop�sounds like a younger version of Jason LaRue. His decent '04 showing has made things tough on the Reds: Sardinha's too good to glibly discard into the Rule 5 dustbin, not yet good enough to claim a major league starting job. Adding him to the 40-man and letting Sardinha duke it out with Miguel Perez, Ryan Hanigan and Brian Peterson for organizational pecking order behind the plate is the Reds' best bet.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	LOU	AAA	249	19	7	0	2	10	15	64	0	0	0.5	.175	.231	.231	-.657	.147	.198	.190	.094	-39.4	66-C 3	-2.1
2007	TOL	AAA	421	38	15	1	10	47	25	98	2	0	2.0	.202	.255	.325	-.502	.170	.215	.278	.164	-44.9	112-C 1	-2.1
2008	TOL	AAA	197	19	9	0	6	18	8	59	1	0	-1.1	.202	.238	.350	-.451	.183	.215	.312	.177	-18.3	52-C -6	-1.5
2008	DET	MLB	49	2	0	1	0	3	4	11	0	0	-1.3	.159	.229	.205	-.572	.159	.229	.205	.139	-4.6	14-C 1	-0.2

Historical Stats