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Anibal Sanchez
Florida Marlins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 25
6'
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

2009 Player Comment

Well-known as the kid who spun a no-hitter in 2006, Sanchez's 2007 season was a lost campaign, one in which he eventually went under the knife to repair his shoulder. Though 2008 was not a triumphant return the way fellow Fish Josh Johnson's was, there are positives: his strikeout rate was higher than in '06, and at least his walk rate wasn't as ugly as it was in '07. He should do better over the course of a full season.

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Projected Playing Time

Marlins Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Spot Anibal Sanchez 29 5 5.01 1.49 29 15 3 22 1 2 0 0.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 CAR AA 3 6 0 15 15 85.0 82 27 92 7 48% .319 18 1.28 3.18 -4 5.71 10.6 3.1 6.0 1.5 -1.0 0.0 0.7
2006 FLO MLB 10 3 0 18 17 114.3 90 46 72 9 44% .243 4 1.19 2.83 9 3.71 6.6 3.2 5.2 0.6 36.6 4.8 3.7
2007 FLO MLB 2 1 0 6 6 30.0 43 19 14 3 47% .367 8 2.07 4.80 -7 2.87 11.2 4.9 3.7 0.9 2.3 0.4 1.2
2008 MRL Rk 1 0 0 1 1 5.0 4 1 4 0 31% .333 -10 1.00 3.60 0 7.36 12.3 4.9 2.5 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -0.1
2008 JUP A+ 0 0 0 2 2 10.0 7 4 9 0 41% .259 5 1.10 1.80 2 5.00 8.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.1
2008 CAR AA 1 0 0 2 2 13.0 12 5 12 0 54% .364 16 1.31 3.46 1 4.91 11.5 4.1 5.7 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2
2008 FLO MLB 2 5 0 10 10 51.7 54 27 50 7 42% .324 21 1.57 5.57 -1 5.64 9.4 3.9 7.5 1.2 -2.3 0.2 0.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 2:36 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 10 6 0 24 24 142.3 118 55 124 12 45% .267 24 1.21 2.94 1 3.20 7.5 3.0 6.4 0.8 41.8 5.3 5.3
75o 8 7 0 23 23 128.3 119 53 108 13 45% .286 19 1.34 3.81 1 4.14 8.4 3.3 6.2 0.9 23.8 3.4 3.4
60o 7 7 0 22 22 123.7 118 53 103 13 45% .293 18 1.38 4.11 1 4.45 8.7 3.3 6.1 0.9 18.5 2.8 2.8
50o 6 7 0 22 22 116.0 118 52 95 13 45% .303 15 1.46 4.62 1 4.99 9.2 3.5 6.0 1.0 10.1 1.9 1.9
40o 5 8 0 26 19 107.0 116 50 86 13 45% .315 9 1.54 5.22 1 5.63 9.8 3.7 5.9 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.0
25o 4 8 0 26 16 90.3 110 46 70 13 45% .337 2 1.72 6.45 0 6.93 11.0 4.0 5.7 1.3 -12.3 -0.6 -0.6
10o 2 6 0 23 11 62.7 92 37 44 11 44% .372 -9 2.04 8.72 0 9.29 13.2 4.6 5.2 1.6 -25.8 -2.1 -2.2
Weighted Mean 6 6 0 25 17 101.0 99 44 84 11 45% .297 13 1.42 4.34 1 4.70 8.9 3.4 6.1 1.0 12.7 1.9 2.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

21%

49%

32%

36%

1.17

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 25) 6 6 0 25 17 101.0 99 44 84 11 45% .297 13 1.42 4.34 1 4.70 8.9 3.4 6.1 1.0 12.7 1.9 2.0
2010 (age 26) 7 8 0 29 20 119.7 117 50 101 13 45% .297 13 1.39 4.33 1 4.69 8.8 3.2 6.2 0.9 12.9 2.2 2.0
2011 (age 27) 7 8 1 33 19 122.0 122 48 106 13 45% .304 12 1.39 4.51 1 4.90 9.0 3.1 6.4 1.0 9.6 1.9 1.6
2012 (age 28) 5 6 1 28 13 91.0 91 38 75 9 44% .302 9 1.42 4.48 0 4.86 9.1 3.3 6.1 0.9 7.7 1.4 1.3
2013 (age 29) 6 6 1 33 15 103.0 103 41 85 11 44% .301 9 1.39 4.16 1 4.49 9.0 3.1 6.1 0.9 9.5 2.0 1.4
2014 (age 30) 4 4 1 24 10 70.3 69 27 57 7 44% .296 9 1.37 4.16 0 4.50 8.9 3.0 6.0 0.9 9.4 1.3 1.4
2015 (age 31) 3 4 1 20 8 57.0 56 23 46 6 44% .294 7 1.39 4.37 0 4.73 8.9 3.2 5.9 1.0 6.6 0.9 1.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .260 .359 .412
vs RHB .252 .338 .392
Split +.008 +.021 +.020
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 2.0 $3,125,000 10.6 15.7
2010 2.0 $3,375,000 10.7 12.7
2011 1.6 $2,750,000 7.5 10.1
2012 1.3 $2,400,000 6.1 10.8
2013 1.4 $3,100,000 8.2 9.8
2014 1.4 $3,350,000 8.1 10.4
2015 1.0 $2,625,000 5.5 6.6
Peak 9.6 $12,650,000 43.0 69.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 4.14 4.99 6.93 4.70
2010 4.11 4.87 5.92 4.69
2011 4.17 5.00 6.33 4.90
2012 3.79 5.15 7.46 4.86
2013 3.84 4.74 6.24 4.49
2014 3.65 4.89 6.13 4.50
2015 4.38 5.17 6.72 4.73


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 36% 0% 21%
2010 34% 14% 18%
2011 40% 23% 14%
2012 54% 31% 27%
2013 66% 43% 23%
2014 63% 42% 16%
2015 70% 51% 9%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

63

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Salomon Torres 1997 58 11 Juan Cruz 2004 48
2 Tomokazu Ohka 2001 53 12 David Cone 1988 47
3 Bruce Howard 1968 53 13 Pete Redfern 1979 47
4 Dick Selma 1969 52 14 Dave Freisleben 1977 46
5 Charlie Lea 1982 52 15 Kurt Ainsworth 2004 46
6 Bob Kelly 1953 51 16 Steve Stone 1972 46
7 Eddie Erautt 1950 51 17 Ken Hill 1991 46
8 Joe Sparma 1967 50 18 Joaquin Andujar 1978 46
9 Scott Scudder 1993 50 19 Doug Drabek 1987 45
10 Dickie Noles 1982 48 20 Steve Blass 1967 45

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

All of the Marlins' top five starters in 2006 saw their ERAs rise in 2007. Three of the five-Sanchez, Johnson, and Nolasco-went from 63 combined starts to 14. The other two, Olsen and Willis, saw their combined ERA go from 3.94 to 5.47. Now, Billy Martin is dead, so we can't blame him. Joe Girardi, however, is very much alive and seems to have escaped detection by getting himself fired in advance of this carnage. It's facile to say "Girardi broke his pitchers," because pitchers get hurt for all kinds of reasons, but when the aftermath is this dramatic, more questions should be asked. Sanchez, who despite his no-hitter was well over his head as a major leaguer in 2006, was demoted last May and later diagnosed with a torn labrum, the timing of which resulted in a dispute between Sanchez and the team as to whether he should have been placed on the major league DL rather than sent down. He might be ready for spring training, but he's not likely to be at all effective this year.

2007

During his no-hitter in September, Sanchez was still hitting 95 MPH in the ninth inning. That is a bit more velocity than he was showing a few years ago, and it seems he owes his increased velocity to 2003 nerve transposition surgery. Lost in the giddiness of his first major league season was the fact that he lost about two strikeouts per nine innings from his 2005 rate. Given his ultra-low BABIP (.243) and the fact that he nearly cut his career home run rate in half last year, it`s easy to see why he`s a good candidate for some regression.

2006

Dominated the Carolina League for two months, then moved up to Portland and continued to pitch well. After allowing just three earned runs in his first five outings in Double-A, he tired in August and was limited to 60 pitches per outing. Armed with a lively 95 mph fastball and a plus curveball, his best pitch is a nasty changeup that he hides well with consistent arm speed. He had ligament surgery on his pitching arm in 2003, but has completely recovered. Although Hanley Ramirez was the big-name prospect in the Beckett deal, Sanchez was the guy the team hated to give up. He would likely have gotten to Boston in 2006.

2005

After losing his entire 2003 season to elbow surgery, Sanchez came back throwing his excellent fastball faster than he had been before the surgery. He absolutely destroyed hitters in the NY-Penn League last year with that fastball, a good curve, and change-up. He'll only be 21 this year and, just like all the other young pitchers, if he can keep himself healthy, he's got a great shot to climb the ladder quickly.


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