<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Carlos Ruiz
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 30
5' 10"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Carlos Ruiz 65 144 .233 15 2 15 1 .324 .354 1.2
1   2009 Total 65 144 .233 15 2 15 1 .324 .354 1.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SWB AAA 423 56 25 0 16 69 42 56 4 3 0.7 .307 .389 .505 .004 .264 .339 .448 .270 15.3 78-C 3 2.7
2006 PHI MLB 78 5 1 1 3 10 5 8 0 0 -0.5 .261 .316 .435 -.073 .257 .312 .429 .256 1.5 19-C -1 0.2
2007 PHI MLB 429 42 29 2 6 54 42 49 6 1 0.3 .259 .340 .396 -.082 .251 .336 .393 .259 13.9 101-C 5 2.4
2008 PHI MLB 373 47 14 0 4 31 44 38 1 2 1.9 .219 .320 .300 -.245 .218 .321 .302 .224 -6.6 93-C 2 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:25 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 328 47 17 1 8 36 35 39 2 1 -0.7 .294 .378 .440 .093 .294 .378 .447 .287 20.3 79-C 3 3.4
75o 308 37 15 1 6 32 31 38 1 1 -0.6 .271 .354 .398 -.022 .272 .354 .403 .266 10.8 75-C 2 2.4
60o 292 31 13 1 5 28 28 36 1 1 -0.6 .254 .335 .365 -.111 .254 .335 .370 .249 4.2 71-C 1 1.6
50o 285 29 12 1 4 27 27 36 1 1 -0.6 .247 .327 .351 -.146 .248 .328 .357 .242 1.8 70-C 1 1.3
40o 277 26 11 1 4 25 26 35 1 1 -0.5 .239 .318 .335 -.191 .239 .318 .340 .233 -1.2 68-C 1 1.0
25o 266 22 10 0 3 23 24 34 1 1 -0.5 .228 .306 .315 -.244 .229 .307 .320 .221 -4.4 65-C 0 0.6
10o 223 13 6 0 1 16 18 30 1 1 -0.4 .193 .265 .247 -.429 .193 .266 .251 .176 -13.3 56-C -2 -0.6
Weighted Mean 285 29 12 1 4 27 27 36 1 1 -0.6 .249 .330 .355 -.130 .250 .330 .361 .241 4.1 70-C 1 1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

42%

30%

39%

0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 285 29 12 1 4 27 27 36 1 1 -0.6 .249 .330 .355 -.130 .250 .330 .361 .241 4.1 70-C 1 1.4
2010 (age 31) 253 24 11 0 5 24 24 32 1 0 -0.4 .244 .324 .355 -.166 .241 .320 .356 .240 1.4 62-C 0 1.1
2011 (age 32) 234 21 9 0 4 23 22 30 1 0 -0.3 .244 .323 .349 -.177 .240 .319 .350 .237 0.7 58-C 1 1.0
2012 (age 33) 255 25 11 1 4 25 25 33 1 0 -0.3 .251 .332 .361 -.140 .247 .328 .362 .245 2.0 63-C -1 0.8
2013 (age 34) 178 14 6 0 3 18 18 23 1 0 -0.2 .240 .323 .342 -.187 .237 .319 .343 .236 0.1 46-C -1 0.5
2014 (age 35) 212 18 8 0 3 21 21 30 1 0 -0.1 .241 .324 .337 -.193 .238 .319 .338 .234 0.0 53-C 0 0.4
2015 (age 36) 241 21 9 0 4 22 26 32 2 0 -0.1 .232 .322 .328 -.213 .229 .317 .329 .231 -0.3 60-C 0 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .263 .346 .382
vs RHP .245 .322 .341
Split +.018 +.024 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 1.8 1.0 1.4 $1,775,000 3.5 6.6
2010 1.2 0.0 1.1 $1,375,000 0.5 3.6
2011 0.5 1.0 1.0 $1,375,000 0.5 3.2
2012 2.5 -1.0 0.8 $1,300,000 0.5 2.8
2013 0.3 -1.0 0.5 $1,000,000 -1.1 1.9
2014 0.0 0.0 0.4 $1,100,000 -0.6 1.5
2015 -0.8 0.0 0.3 $975,000 -0.6 0.5
Peak 5.1 $4,400,000 3.4 19.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .266 .242 .221 .241
2010 .261 .233 .212 .240
2011 .261 .236 .206 .237
2012 .270 .241 .225 .245
2013 .261 .234 .205 .236
2014 .267 .232 .208 .234
2015 .252 .240 .191 .231


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 39% 0% 25%
2010 49% 13% 16%
2011 56% 20% 18%
2012 64% 34% 18%
2013 77% 46% 14%
2014 78% 53% 16%
2015 84% 68% 11%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

63

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jerry Grote 1973 64 11 Joe Girardi 1995 53
2 Gary Bennett 2002 64 12 Rick Dempsey 1980 51
3 Kirt Manwaring 1995 63 13 Joe Azcue 1970 51
4 Brad Ausmus 1999 63 14 John Stearns 1982 50
5 Greg Olson 1991 59 15 Bill Fahey 1980 47
6 Lenny Webster 1995 58 16 Robert Machado 2003 47
7 Bud Bulling 1983 58 17 Jim Essian 1981 47
8 Joe Astroth 1953 57 18 Bob Tillman 1967 46
9 Alberto Castillo 2000 55 19 Yorvit Torrealba 2008 46
10 Dave Valle 1991 54 20 Matt Batts 1952 46

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The average NL catcher hit .257/.318/.394 last year, so Ruiz's mediocre season still put the Phils slightly ahead of the pack. Their advantage would have been greater had Ruiz only done what we might expect a right-handed batter to do against lefty pitchers. Last year, the average NL righty batted .281/.351/.447 against southpaws, while Ruiz hit .189/.265/.311 in 104 plate appearances against them, a split that's very likely to improve this year. Ruiz was fine in the field last year, displaying an accurate arm. He's an asset for now, but given his late arrival in the major leagues, he's not going to grow from this point beyond the aforementioned correction.

2007

Given a second shot at Triple-A, Ruiz cranked up his hitting, just as he had done in second tries in Double-A and High-A ball. He did the same thing in miniature in the majors, going 5-for-35 with no extra base hits in his first call-up in May, and then hitting .379/.455/.793 in his subsequent trips to the bigs. The only thing not to like about him is that he`s already 28. That would normally elicit a comment about this being as good he gets, but there`s something about his pattern of improvement that cautions against taking a normal career path for granted.

2006

After his 2004 breakout year in Double-A and a bravura performance in the AFL, Ruiz was on the fast track of the Reading R.R. to Philly. Act II was an even better year in Triple-A in 2005, though his newfound home run power in 2004 evaporated from 17 to only four. The Panamanian didn`t sign his first pro contract until age 19, and didn`t play professionally until he was 20, so there are mitigating circumstances to his late maturation. The Phillies signed Sal Fasano for 2006, and the Italian backup stallion is the odds-on favorite to go north with the big club next April, while Ruiz heads back to Scranton.

2005

Ordinarily, it would be safe to ignore a 25-year-old who suddenly started hitting at Double-A, but Ruiz has a good excuse for being a late-bloomer: The high school that he went to in Panama did not sponsor baseball, and unlike the vast majority of Latin American prospects who get signed to contracts in their teens, Ruiz's first year in American professional ball came at age 20. Though he had never played catcher at the time of his signing, Ruiz's arm and overall defense are considered to be assets. He was added to the 40-man roster in November, and has a good chance to be a major league-caliber backup.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.