Rene Rivera

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:20 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	341	28	15	1	9	35	22	82	0	1	-1.8	.223	.282	.363	-.207	.227	.285	.380	.227	-4.3	82-C -1	0.8
75^o	318	21	13	1	7	30	20	80	0	0	-1.6	.204	.261	.320	-.317	.207	.264	.335	.203	-12.2	77-C -1	0.0
60^o	302	17	11	0	5	27	18	78	0	0	-1.5	.192	.248	.292	-.386	.195	.250	.306	.186	-16.4	74-C -1	-0.5
50^o	292	15	10	0	5	25	17	76	0	0	-1.4	.185	.241	.277	-.424	.188	.243	.290	.175	-18.5	71-C -1	-0.7
40^o	284	14	9	0	4	23	17	75	0	0	-1.3	.180	.235	.265	-.455	.183	.237	.277	.166	-20.0	69-C -1	-0.9
25^o	271	12	8	0	3	20	15	73	0	0	-1.3	.172	.226	.248	-.498	.175	.228	.259	.153	-21.8	67-C 0	-1.1
10^o	240	8	6	0	2	15	13	68	0	0	-1.1	.157	.209	.214	-.582	.160	.211	.224	.120	-24.0	60-C 0	-1.4
Weighted Mean	309	17	11	0	5	28	18	80	0	0	-1.4	.188	.243	.282	-.416	.191	.245	.296	.179	-15.9	75-C 0	-0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
29%	46%	39%	29%	1.05

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	309	17	11	0	5	28	18	80	0	0	-1.4	.188	.243	.282	-.416	.191	.245	.296	.179	-15.9	75-C 0	-0.4
2010 (age 26)	273	15	9	0	5	25	17	70	0	0	-1.0	.188	.247	.281	-.417	.189	.246	.291	.181	-11.9	67-C 0	0.0
2011 (age 27)	270	15	9	0	5	26	17	68	0	0	-0.7	.195	.253	.291	-.391	.195	.251	.301	.188	-7.8	66-C 1	0.0
2012 (age 28)	236	11	7	0	4	22	13	63	0	0	-0.6	.179	.234	.267	-.465	.180	.233	.276	.168	-8.7	59-C 2	0.0
2013 (age 29)	277	16	9	0	5	27	18	70	0	0	-0.5	.197	.257	.300	-.369	.197	.256	.311	.194	-4.8	68-C 1	0.1
2014 (age 30)	208	10	7	0	4	20	15	54	0	0	-0.3	.188	.251	.285	-.406	.189	.249	.294	.186	-3.6	52-C 0	0.1
2015 (age 31)	251	15	10	0	5	26	16	66	0	0	-0.2	.199	.256	.314	-.351	.199	.255	.325	.198	-2.0	62-C -2	0.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.203	.260	.312
vs RHP	.184	.238	.271
Split	+.019	+.022	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-17.9	0.0	-0.4	$400,000	-16.4	0.0
2010	-15.4	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-11.8	0.3
2011	-13.6	1.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.5	0.2
2012	-15.7	2.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.8	0.6
2013	-12.6	1.0	0.1	$400,000	-4.2	0.1
2014	-10.9	0.0	0.1	$400,000	-3.1	0.2
2015	-10.5	-2.0	0.0	$550,000	-1.8	0.0
Peak			0.1	$175,000	0.0	1.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.203	.175	.153	.179
2010	.221	.193	.148	.181
2011	.223	.188	.156	.188
2012	.228	.186	.143	.168
2013	.231	.197	.167	.194
2014	.238	.196	.132	.186
2015	.224	.219	.177	.198

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	29%	0%	29%
2010	48%	24%	37%
2011	63%	44%	35%
2012	72%	49%	31%
2013	72%	58%	35%
2014	81%	67%	28%
2015	89%	80%	23%

64

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jeff Winchester	2005	57		11	Rick Guarno	2008	51
2	Tony Richie	2008	56		12	Ryan Hubele	2006	51
3	Brian Johnson	1993	56		13	Dan Conway	2005	50
4	Stan Cliburn	1982	55		14	Jim Campanis	1993	48
5	Nick Trzesniak	2006	54		15	Joe Ayrault	1997	48
6	John Posey	1990	52		16	Russ Jacobson	2003	47
7	Ryan Jorgensen	2005	52		17	Dave Vangorder	1983	47
8	Frank Castro	1986	52		18	Matt Pagnozzi	2008	46
9	Javi Herrera	2007	52		19	Bill McGuire	1990	46
10	Ronn Reynolds	1984	51		20	Ryan Luzinski	1999	46

Player Comments

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2007

On a per-at-bat basis, Rivera had one of the worst-hitting seasons in the American League last year--right up there with Edgardo Alfonso, Kevin Witt, and Antonio Perez. Some credit should go to the Mariners` pizza-delivery development program, which saw Rivera as a full-time backup despite having fewer than 70 career plate appearances at Triple-A. Note to Bill Bavasi: You don`t get your players in 30 minutes or less. You get them when they`re ready.

2005

A collapse of a season, in which Rivera wore down and didn't hit at all. Figure him as a backstop with an arm�check out those defensive numbers. Mike Matheny became a rich man, so anything's possible.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	SEA	MLB	106	8	4	0	2	4	3	29	1	0	-0.4	.152	.184	.253	-.651	.141	.175	.232	.119	-11.4	30-C 1	-0.8
2007	WTN	AA	356	29	16	0	5	40	24	86	1	2	0.0	.214	.275	.310	-.459	.185	.237	.273	.170	-35.1	90-C -1	-1.8
2008	JAX	AA	148	13	5	0	5	18	11	32	0	0	-3.4	.231	.293	.381	-.428	.188	.236	.297	.181	-13.2	17-1B 0 17-C 6	-0.2
2008	LVG	AAA	131	12	7	0	4	12	11	20	0	1	0.4	.271	.336	.432	-.261	.217	.280	.350	.217	-5.1	29-C -3	-0.5

Historical Stats