<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Mike Rivera
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 32
6' 2"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Brewers Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Mike Rivera 15 33 .213 3 1 4 0 .273 .331 -0.6
1   2009 Total 15 33 .213 3 1 4 0 .273 .331 -0.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NAS AAA 236 30 11 0 10 46 13 40 3 3 -1.6 .296 .339 .488 -.193 .239 .278 .394 .232 -4.9 51-C -3 4-1B 1 0.1
2006 MIL MLB 158 16 9 0 6 24 10 21 0 0 -0.1 .268 .325 .458 -.039 .259 .316 .448 .262 5.2 40-C -1 0.7
2007 NAS AAA 382 37 15 0 19 61 24 71 5 5 -4.9 .215 .270 .421 -.439 .167 .217 .325 .180 -35.2 74-C 1 16-1B 0 -1.8
2007 MIL MLB 15 2 0 0 2 3 1 3 0 0 -0.1 .231 .286 .692 .209 .231 .286 .692 .299 1.5 4-C 0 0.1
2008 MIL MLB 69 8 5 0 1 14 6 10 2 0 -0.1 .306 .377 .435 .064 .306 .377 .419 .285 4.7 14-C -1 0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:50 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 244 30 11 0 9 29 19 47 2 1 -1.4 .253 .318 .427 -.053 .255 .316 .440 .258 6.1 61-C -2 1.3
75o 226 23 9 0 7 25 16 45 2 1 -1.3 .231 .293 .379 -.178 .232 .291 .391 .234 -0.9 57-C -2 0.6
60o 215 19 8 0 6 23 15 44 2 1 -1.2 .218 .278 .352 -.250 .220 .277 .362 .219 -4.4 54-C -2 0.3
50o 200 15 7 0 5 20 13 42 2 1 -1.0 .202 .259 .317 -.342 .203 .258 .326 .199 -8.4 51-C -1 0.0
40o 191 13 6 0 4 18 12 41 2 1 -1.0 .193 .249 .298 -.389 .195 .248 .307 .187 -10.1 49-C -1 -0.3
25o 176 10 5 0 3 15 10 39 1 1 -0.9 .180 .234 .270 -.463 .181 .232 .278 .167 -12.3 45-C -1 -0.6
10o 67 1 1 0 0 2 3 18 1 0 -0.3 .138 .179 .179 -.706 .139 .178 .185 .023 -8.4 21-C 0 -0.5
Weighted Mean 176 13 6 0 4 19 12 37 1 1 -1.0 .210 .268 .334 -.292 .211 .267 .343 .207 -4.1 45-C 0 0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

33%

52%

45%

1.12

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 32) 176 13 6 0 4 19 12 37 1 1 -1.0 .210 .268 .334 -.292 .211 .267 .343 .207 -4.1 45-C 0 0.2
2010 (age 33) 186 16 7 0 5 20 13 40 1 0 -0.6 .220 .284 .352 -.253 .219 .278 .358 .221 -2.0 48-C -1 0.3
2011 (age 34) 172 16 6 0 6 21 11 37 2 0 -0.4 .235 .289 .390 -.185 .233 .283 .396 .234 0.0 44-C -1 0.3
2012 (age 35) 173 13 7 0 4 18 12 39 1 0 -0.3 .217 .278 .341 -.281 .215 .272 .346 .215 -1.2 45-C -1 0.1
2013 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .225 .288 .364
vs RHP .206 .262 .319
Split +.020 +.026 +.045
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -5.5 0.0 0.2 $400,000 -5.4 1.6
2010 -3.4 -1.0 0.3 $475,000 -3.1 0.3
2011 -0.9 -1.0 0.3 $675,000 -0.8 1.3
2012 -4.2 -1.0 0.1 $500,000 -1.6 0.4
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.9 $725,000 0.0 3.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .234 .199 .167 .207
2010 .255 .220 .186 .221
2011 .258 .238 .182 .234
2012 .247 .214 .182 .215
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 45% 0% 19%
2010 64% 39% 19%
2011 80% 59% 21%
2012 84% 67% 13%
2013 91% 75% 9%
2014 97% 85% 9%
2015 100% 90% 8%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

46

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Brian Johnson 2000 49 11 Don Wakamatsu 1995 31
2 Orlando Mercado 1994 47 12 Bruce Bochy 1988 30
3 Paul Casanova 1974 46 13 Marc Hill 1984 30
4 Darron Cox 2000 37 14 Mike Difelice 2002 30
5 Phil Roof 1973 37 15 Bob Montgomery 1977 30
6 Jose Molina 2008 36 16 Sal Fasano 2004 29
7 Bill Haselman 1999 36 17 Mike Ryan 1974 29
8 Ray Noble 1952 35 18 Eddie Perez 2001 28
9 Miguel Ojeda 2007 31 19 Russ Gibson 1972 27
10 Wiki Gonzalez 2007 31 20 Ebba St. Claire 1954 27

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Once the Brewers shed their Chad Moeller fetish in 2006, Mike Rivera stepped in as Damian Miller's backup and hit .268/.325/.458, but the acquisition of Johnny Estrada that winter forced him to spend last year in Nashville.

2007

Prior to the season, Rivera was a career emergency catcher with a .218/.255/.315 batting line. Called up because the Brewers finally gave up on Chad Moeller, Rivera responded to his first big league service time since 2003 by showing the pop he can deliver when he`s at his best. With Miller and Estrada around, Rivera won`t get a chance to show that wasn`t a fluke unless someone gets injured or traded.

2003

Traded to the Padres in mid-November for Gene Kingsale because the Tigers theoretically have a surplus of catching talent and a deficit of unproven speedy outfielders that can’t hit, neither of which is true. Rivera isn’t a blue-chip prospect, but he has real power and should easily replace the departed Tom Lampkin and resident floater Wiki Gonzalez as San Diego’s regular backstop. While his defense is questionable, Bruce Bochy should be able to tutor Rivera to enable the team to benefit from his bat. Unfortunately for Rivera, too many teams refuse to start subpar defensive catchers who can thump the ball. In most cases, the best solution is to play the hitter and find a good catch-and-throw guy (they’re easy to come by) as a reserve. By using the catch-and-throw receiver as a late-inning defensive replacement and spot-starting him against opponents who run a lot, a team can maximize its offensive production from the position while minimizing the defensive damage. Even assuming that Kingsale has value, they had other options in center and didn’t have to give Rivera away. A Rivera/Inge "platoon" could have been a big plus for Detroit.

2002

Rivera nearly doubled his career-high in walks, and presto!, he was the best hitter in the organization and was named the best power-hitting prospect in the Eastern League. The Tigers suddenly have a peck of catchers. Even ignoring Fick and Meluskey, the Tigers must decide between Inge, a terrific backstop who does less damage at the plate than Lara Flynn Boyle, and Rivera, who can mash but whose glove has more holes than the lone-gunman theory. As always, bet on defense to win out in the spring and for offense to take over in the summer.

2001

It’s a credit to roving catching instructor Glenn Ezell that the Tigers have a bushel of fair catching prospects while hopefuls at other positions die on the vine. This abundance may help rationalize--but certainly doesn’t validate--moving Munson to first base. Mike Rivera’s bat is his ticket to The Show, so his initial dislike of Double-A pitching isn’t encouraging. He needs to learn to be more selective at the plate, a course of study that hasn’t been a prerequisite to playing in Comerica Park.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.