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Mike Rabelo
Florida Marlins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 29
6' 1"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 ERI AA 242 31 13 1 6 28 19 38 2 1 0.6 .277 .361 .432 -.335 .198 .264 .324 .203 -15.4 54-C 2 -0.2
2006 TOL AAA 153 19 12 0 3 22 11 33 1 1 0.4 .270 .333 .423 -.155 .245 .301 .388 .239 -1.6 37-C -3 0.1
2007 DET MLB 185 14 10 2 1 18 6 41 0 0 -2.5 .256 .300 .357 -.199 .256 .296 .357 .229 -0.2 44-C -1 0.0
2008 JUP A+ 32 2 2 0 0 1 2 8 0 0 -0.1 .200 .250 .267 -.784 .129 .156 .161 .000 -6.5 4-C 0 -0.5
2008 ABQ AAA 30 2 1 0 1 2 1 8 0 0 0.1 .241 .267 .379 -.488 .172 .200 .310 .162 -3.2 6-C 0 -0.2
2008 FLO MLB 122 9 1 0 3 10 8 25 0 1 -2.7 .202 .256 .294 -.391 .202 .254 .294 .194 -6.0 30-C -2 -0.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:26 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 207 25 11 1 6 25 15 48 0 0 -0.9 .260 .319 .421 -.043 .264 .320 .438 .259 6.3 52-C -1 1.2
75o 195 21 9 1 5 22 13 46 0 0 -0.8 .245 .302 .389 -.127 .249 .303 .404 .243 2.0 50-C -1 0.8
60o 187 18 9 1 4 20 12 45 0 0 -0.8 .235 .291 .368 -.184 .238 .292 .382 .231 -0.5 48-C -1 0.5
50o 179 15 8 1 4 18 11 43 0 0 -0.7 .226 .281 .348 -.235 .229 .281 .362 .221 -2.7 46-C -2 0.2
40o 166 12 7 1 3 15 10 41 0 0 -0.6 .213 .265 .319 -.314 .215 .266 .331 .203 -5.5 43-C -2 0.0
25o 138 7 5 0 1 10 7 35 0 0 -0.5 .188 .236 .266 -.453 .190 .237 .276 .166 -9.1 37-C -2 -0.6
10o 31 0 1 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 -0.1 .137 .175 .156 -.741 .138 .175 .162 .022 -4.1 13-C -2 -0.4
Weighted Mean 154 13 7 1 3 15 10 37 0 0 -0.6 .230 .284 .355 -.224 .232 .285 .369 .224 0.3 40-C -1 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

54%

61%

28%

45%

2.10

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 29) 154 13 7 1 3 15 10 37 0 0 -0.6 .230 .284 .355 -.224 .232 .285 .369 .224 0.3 40-C -1 0.4
2010 (age 30) 163 14 6 0 3 16 11 40 0 0 -0.5 .231 .288 .348 -.235 .231 .285 .357 .223 -1.4 42-C -1 0.4
2011 (age 31) 146 11 7 0 3 13 10 35 0 0 -0.4 .222 .284 .343 -.255 .221 .280 .352 .220 -1.6 38-C -2 0.2
2012 (age 32) 121 9 5 0 2 12 9 30 0 0 -0.3 .222 .286 .338 -.258 .222 .282 .347 .220 -1.3 33-C -1 0.1
2013 (age 33) 137 10 5 0 3 13 9 32 0 0 -0.2 .224 .281 .340 -.263 .224 .278 .349 .218 -1.0 36-C -1 0.1
2014 (age 34)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .237 .283 .377
vs RHP .227 .285 .343
Split +.010 -.002 +.034
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.8 -1.0 0.4 $650,000 -1.5 1.2
2010 -2.0 -1.0 0.4 $625,000 -2.3 1.3
2011 -2.2 -2.0 0.2 $400,000 -3.5 0.9
2012 -1.8 -1.0 0.1 $475,000 -2.6 0.1
2013 -2.4 -1.0 0.1 $575,000 -1.7 0.3
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 1.2 $1,000,000 0.0 4.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .243 .221 .166 .224
2010 .251 .225 .205 .223
2011 .252 .224 .173 .220
2012 .247 .223 .188 .220
2013 .253 .229 .171 .218
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 45% 0% 54%
2010 58% 23% 51%
2011 62% 32% 45%
2012 79% 46% 38%
2013 83% 64% 40%
2014 85% 70% 27%
2015 89% 76% 26%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

56

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Javier Valentin 2005 52 11 Duffy Dyer 1975 43
2 Robert Machado 2002 52 12 Dennis Paepke 1974 43
3 Mike Matheny 2000 51 13 Jamie Quirk 1984 43
4 Russ Gibson 1968 50 14 Luis Pujols 1985 42
5 Joel Skinner 1990 49 15 Ned Yost 1985 42
6 Alan Ashby 1980 49 16 Ken Rudolph 1976 42
7 Ray Katt 1956 49 17 Terry Humphrey 1979 41
8 Geronimo Gil 2005 48 18 Bob Montgomery 1973 41
9 Randy Knorr 1998 45 19 Barry Lyons 1989 40
10 Dave Van Gorder 1986 44 20 Matt Walbeck 1999 40

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The Tigers were one of three teams, along with the Indians and Nationals, to use just two catchers last season, marking the third straight year the Tigers had turned that particular trick. Rabelo inherited Vance Wilson's playing time and performed serviceably, throwing out 28 percent of attempted basestealers. As a switch-hitter who can hit .260 with some doubles, he'll be around for a while as a kind of poor man's Johnny Estrada and could find himself starting for the Marlins this year.

2007

A 2001 fourth-rounder, Mike Rabelo isn`t really a prospect, but he`s on the 40-man as the homegrown third catcher-designate.


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