Mike Rabelo

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:26 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	207	25	11	1	6	25	15	48	0	0	-0.9	.260	.319	.421	-.043	.264	.320	.438	.259	6.3	52-C -1	1.2
75^o	195	21	9	1	5	22	13	46	0	0	-0.8	.245	.302	.389	-.127	.249	.303	.404	.243	2.0	50-C -1	0.8
60^o	187	18	9	1	4	20	12	45	0	0	-0.8	.235	.291	.368	-.184	.238	.292	.382	.231	-0.5	48-C -1	0.5
50^o	179	15	8	1	4	18	11	43	0	0	-0.7	.226	.281	.348	-.235	.229	.281	.362	.221	-2.7	46-C -2	0.2
40^o	166	12	7	1	3	15	10	41	0	0	-0.6	.213	.265	.319	-.314	.215	.266	.331	.203	-5.5	43-C -2	0.0
25^o	138	7	5	0	1	10	7	35	0	0	-0.5	.188	.236	.266	-.453	.190	.237	.276	.166	-9.1	37-C -2	-0.6
10^o	31	0	1	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	-0.1	.137	.175	.156	-.741	.138	.175	.162	.022	-4.1	13-C -2	-0.4
Weighted Mean	154	13	7	1	3	15	10	37	0	0	-0.6	.230	.284	.355	-.224	.232	.285	.369	.224	0.3	40-C -1	0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
54%	61%	28%	45%	2.10

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 29)	154	13	7	1	3	15	10	37	0	0	-0.6	.230	.284	.355	-.224	.232	.285	.369	.224	0.3	40-C -1	0.4
2010 (age 30)	163	14	6	0	3	16	11	40	0	0	-0.5	.231	.288	.348	-.235	.231	.285	.357	.223	-1.4	42-C -1	0.4
2011 (age 31)	146	11	7	0	3	13	10	35	0	0	-0.4	.222	.284	.343	-.255	.221	.280	.352	.220	-1.6	38-C -2	0.2
2012 (age 32)	121	9	5	0	2	12	9	30	0	0	-0.3	.222	.286	.338	-.258	.222	.282	.347	.220	-1.3	33-C -1	0.1
2013 (age 33)	137	10	5	0	3	13	9	32	0	0	-0.2	.224	.281	.340	-.263	.224	.278	.349	.218	-1.0	36-C -1	0.1
2014 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.237	.283	.377
vs RHP	.227	.285	.343
Split	+.010	-.002	+.034
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-1.8	-1.0	0.4	$650,000	-1.5	1.2
2010	-2.0	-1.0	0.4	$625,000	-2.3	1.3
2011	-2.2	-2.0	0.2	$400,000	-3.5	0.9
2012	-1.8	-1.0	0.1	$475,000	-2.6	0.1
2013	-2.4	-1.0	0.1	$575,000	-1.7	0.3
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			1.2	$1,000,000	0.0	4.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.243	.221	.166	.224
2010	.251	.225	.205	.223
2011	.252	.224	.173	.220
2012	.247	.223	.188	.220
2013	.253	.229	.171	.218
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	45%	0%	54%
2010	58%	23%	51%
2011	62%	32%	45%
2012	79%	46%	38%
2013	83%	64%	40%
2014	85%	70%	27%
2015	89%	76%	26%

56

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Javier Valentin	2005	52		11	Duffy Dyer	1975	43
2	Robert Machado	2002	52		12	Dennis Paepke	1974	43
3	Mike Matheny	2000	51		13	Jamie Quirk	1984	43
4	Russ Gibson	1968	50		14	Luis Pujols	1985	42
5	Joel Skinner	1990	49		15	Ned Yost	1985	42
6	Alan Ashby	1980	49		16	Ken Rudolph	1976	42
7	Ray Katt	1956	49		17	Terry Humphrey	1979	41
8	Geronimo Gil	2005	48		18	Bob Montgomery	1973	41
9	Randy Knorr	1998	45		19	Barry Lyons	1989	40
10	Dave Van Gorder	1986	44		20	Matt Walbeck	1999	40

Player Comments

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2008

The Tigers were one of three teams, along with the Indians and Nationals, to use just two catchers last season, marking the third straight year the Tigers had turned that particular trick. Rabelo inherited Vance Wilson's playing time and performed serviceably, throwing out 28 percent of attempted basestealers. As a switch-hitter who can hit .260 with some doubles, he'll be around for a while as a kind of poor man's Johnny Estrada and could find himself starting for the Marlins this year.

2007

A 2001 fourth-rounder, Mike Rabelo isn`t really a prospect, but he`s on the 40-man as the homegrown third catcher-designate.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	ERI	AA	242	31	13	1	6	28	19	38	2	1	0.6	.277	.361	.432	-.335	.198	.264	.324	.203	-15.4	54-C 2	-0.2
2006	TOL	AAA	153	19	12	0	3	22	11	33	1	1	0.4	.270	.333	.423	-.155	.245	.301	.388	.239	-1.6	37-C -3	0.1
2007	DET	MLB	185	14	10	2	1	18	6	41	0	0	-2.5	.256	.300	.357	-.199	.256	.296	.357	.229	-0.2	44-C -1	0.0
2008	JUP	A+	32	2	2	0	0	1	2	8	0	0	-0.1	.200	.250	.267	-.784	.129	.156	.161	.000	-6.5	4-C 0	-0.5
2008	ABQ	AAA	30	2	1	0	1	2	1	8	0	0	0.1	.241	.267	.379	-.488	.172	.200	.310	.162	-3.2	6-C 0	-0.2
2008	FLO	MLB	122	9	1	0	3	10	8	25	0	1	-2.7	.202	.256	.294	-.391	.202	.254	.294	.194	-6.0	30-C -2	-0.6

Historical Stats