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Jorge Posada
New York Yankees [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 37
6' 2"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Yankees Depth Chart (updated: 03-19)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 6 Jorge Posada 60 419 .263 48 15 58 1 .345 .442 21.1
1   2010 Total 60 419 .263 48 15 58 1 .345 .442 21.1

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NYA MLB 544 65 27 2 23 93 64 96 3 0 -5.6 .278 .375 .494 .089 .264 .369 .475 .292 39.2 118-C 9 5.3
2007 NYA MLB 589 91 42 1 20 90 74 98 2 0 -7.6 .338 .426 .543 .311 .325 .419 .542 .326 69.6 124-C -5 6.5
2008 NYA MLB 195 18 13 1 3 22 24 38 0 0 -0.9 .268 .364 .411 -.007 .257 .362 .413 .273 7.3 26-C -6 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:12 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 350 56 19 1 13 52 39 65 1 0 -2.4 .291 .374 .490 .196 .296 .381 .521 .307 29.4 84-C -6 3.6
75o 310 41 16 1 10 42 34 59 1 0 -2.1 .267 .352 .442 .071 .272 .358 .470 .287 17.0 75-C -5 2.5
60o 296 37 15 1 9 39 32 57 1 0 -2.0 .259 .345 .426 .032 .264 .351 .454 .280 13.6 72-C -5 2.1
50o 260 27 12 1 7 31 28 52 1 0 -1.7 .239 .327 .386 -.072 .243 .332 .410 .261 5.6 64-C -4 1.3
40o 220 18 10 1 4 23 23 45 1 0 -1.4 .218 .307 .343 -.180 .222 .312 .365 .241 -0.8 55-C -3 0.6
25o 190 13 8 0 3 18 20 40 1 0 -1.1 .204 .293 .314 -.252 .207 .299 .334 .226 -3.9 48-C -3 0.3
10o 144 8 6 0 2 12 15 31 0 0 -0.8 .183 .274 .273 -.356 .186 .279 .290 .202 -6.5 38-C -2 0.0
Weighted Mean 257 28 13 1 7 32 28 50 1 0 -1.6 .250 .336 .406 -.043 .254 .342 .432 .269 9.3 63-C -4 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

1%

14%

56%

42%

1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 37) 257 28 13 1 7 32 28 50 1 0 -1.6 .250 .336 .406 -.043 .254 .342 .432 .269 9.3 63-C -4 1.5
2010 (age 38) 227 24 11 1 6 29 25 45 1 0 -0.9 .256 .341 .418 .028 .263 .352 .450 .275 5.9 57-C -4 0.9
2011 (age 39) 230 23 12 1 6 31 25 48 1 0 -0.5 .248 .337 .403 -.006 .256 .347 .434 .269 2.8 57-C -4 0.5
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .260 .334 .416
vs RHP .246 .337 .400
Split +.013 -.002 +.016
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 7.6 -4.0 1.5 $2,250,000 7.2 11.1
2010 8.1 -4.0 0.9 $1,550,000 4.4 6.2
2011 6.7 -4.0 0.5 $1,025,000 2.1 2.1
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 3.0 $3,525,000 14.3 21.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .287 .261 .226 .269
2010 .287 .265 .229 .275
2011 .286 .269 .245 .269
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 42% 0% 1%
2010 66% 33% 3%
2011 82% 65% 1%
2012 92% 77% 1%
2013 97% 89% 0%
2014 99% 93% 1%
2015 99% 97% 0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

30

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Alan Ashby 1989 44 11 Bob Watson 1984 20
2 Ernie Whitt 1990 38 12 Rick Cerone 1992 20
3 Greg Myers 2004 33 13 Tino Martinez 2005 19
4 Mike Piazza 2006 27 14 Fred McGriff 2001 18
5 Chili Davis 1997 27 15 Sid Gordon 1955 18
6 Tim McCarver 1979 26 16 Dale Long 1963 18
7 Ken Caminiti 2001 25 17 Walker Cooper 1952 18
8 Todd Pratt 2004 24 18 Joe Adcock 1965 17
9 J.T. Snow 2006 23 19 David Segui 2004 16
10 Wally Joyner 2000 22 20 Cliff Johnson 1985 16

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

It was a superlative season, but it would be a mistake to assume it means that Posada can play forever. Think of Dwight Evans, who busted out career highs in all three rates (.305/.417/.569) as a 35-year-old in 1987, or Chili Davis, who had back-to-back .300 seasons at 34 and 35. In neither case did the player's strong age-35 showing alter their course toward obsolescence, nor the rate at which they traveled it. This very likely applies to Posada as well, but due to an imbalance of supply and demand in the backstop market, the Yankees were obligated to re-sign Podada for four years if they wanted to stay out of the Johnny Estrada aisle at Wal-Mart. If they can get two years of the four at 75 percent of Posada's 2007 value, it will be money well spent.

2007

Posada quietly had a great year. While postseason talking heads spent October smooching Pudge Rodriguez`s overrated fundament, they missed that, for the sixth year in a row, Posada left him in the dust. Since 2000, BP`s translated batting stats have Posada hitting .283/.395/.506 with a .307 EqA, while Rodriguez has hit .314/.358/.524 with a .296 EqA. In addition to the huge lead in OBP, Posada also led Pudge in isolated power .210 to .198. (He also outproduced Mike Piazza`s translated .291/.369/.535, .302 EqA over that span.) Posada caught up defensively this year as well. Coach Tony Pena tweaked Posada`s throwing mechanics, and the result was a career high in runners caught stealing (though his passed ball tendencies persisted). Posada will remain valuable for at least another year or two.

2006

It was his weakest season since 1999, yet he still posted a .285 EQA. Though the Yankees are correctly nervous about the tendency of catchers in his age group to suffer a sudden, rapid collapse, they underrate his combination of power and patience at their own risk as it`s not easily found in a backstop. In terms of pitches seen per PA it was the least patient year of Posada`s career, but as fall dawned, Posada went back to his old, selective ways, seeing over four pitchers per. Not coincidentally, September was his best month since May. He has more left in the tank; his walks and power will shore up his value even as his batting average fades.

2005

Early in the off-season there were rumors that Posada might be traded, a ludicrous proposition. In previous seasons, when Posada was one of one or two productive backstops in the league, he represented a huge advantage, as if the Yankees got to play two first basemen to their opponents' one. Now that there are a few more hitters at the position, he still prevents the strategic balance from shifting towards other teams. Posada had a torrid spring, a weak June, then spent the rest of the season hitting about like he always does. Given the light workload of his early career—thanks Joe Girardi!—there is no reason to think he can't keep it up at least through the '06 end of his contract. The Yankees undervalue him at their own risk.

2003

There were major concerns about whether or not Posada’s surgically repaired shoulder would be ready to go by Opening Day, but he was fully recovered in time, and logged another nifty season. It’s hard not to be a little bittersweet about Posada; he had to waste time waiting for Joe Girardi to be moved aside, so like Ellie Howard, his career totals probably won’t end up jumping off the charts. However, Posada didn’t really start catching until 1992, converting in his second pro season. If that’s saved his knees any wear and tear, he could age relatively gracefully. Physically, although he’s got an old player skill set, he was once a pretty nimble second baseman. He’ll be the league’s best catcher for another couple of seasons, but I like his chances of retaining a lot of his value well into his 30s.

2002

Jorge Posada is a great ballplayer, a switch hitter who actually should be one, hitting for power and average and showing good plate discipline. He's good at working with pitchers and relatively durable, too. Posada is arb-eligible this season and eligible for free agency after the 2002 season. The Yankees would be wise to sign him to a four-year deal.

2001

That'll do. Jorge Posada was the best catcher in the AL last year. Even with Ivan Rodriguez healthy, Posada shouldn't slip further than second, maybe third if Mitch Meluskey plays a lot. Posada tired a bit in September and is not a big guy, so playing him in 151 games again would be a mistake. Then again, with Joe Oliver as the backup, maybe Posada should go for 162.

2000

He suffered through a first half so bad that the Yankees, worried by his spiraling strikeout rate and a spate of passed balls, had his eyesight tested. Nothing unusual was detected, and Posada played much better in the second half, despite which he still was on the bench for most of the postseason. He hits much better from the right side, and will play a few weeks of winter ball to work on his swing from the left side. Still, the Yankees would be well served to find a left-handed-hitting backup. He will outperform that projection with more playing time, especially now that Personal Catcher to the Stars is gone.

1999

The second-best catcher in the league behind Ivan Rodriguez, Posada has great secondary skills, is a legitimate switch-hitter, throws well and is getting better at the other aspects of catching. I think he'll peak around a .900 OPS in the next few years. He's thin, and wore down late this year, so I think having a quality backup around is a good idea. Maybe Girardi knows someone.

1998

Posada finally got his well-deserved job in the majors this year. He started slowly, but was fantastic in the second half. Obviously, he’s a better player than Girardi, and should be the regular catcher this year. His physique—he’s not a big guy—is a bit of a concern, and since he seems more comfortable batting left-handed, a quality right-handed semi-platoon partner would be a good idea. Posada will be a good player for the next few years.

1997

Yummy. Posada also has a good defensive reputation to go with the numbers above, and deserves at least a share of the catching job in New York. What the Yankees do at catcher will tell us a lot about their chances in 1997 and beyond. Posada is much cheaper and…better than Girardi.

1996

There are worse catching prospects...in front of him on the depth chart.


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