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Jorge Posada
New York Yankees [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 36
6' 2"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Yankees Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 6 Jorge Posada 70 483 .287 65 16 70 3 .380 .479 33.2
1   2008 Total 70 483 .287 65 16 70 3 .380 .479 33.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 NYA MJ 546 67 23 0 19 71 66 94 1 0 -2.2 .262 .352 .430 .044 .266 .366 .448 .284 26.4 122-C -3 5.2
2006 NYA MJ 544 65 27 2 23 93 64 96 3 0 -6.0 .278 .375 .494 .154 .277 .381 .503 .302 38.0 118-C 9 7.5
2007 NYA MJ 589 91 42 1 20 90 74 98 2 0 -7.9 .338 .426 .543 .384 .339 .433 .565 .337 73.4 124-C -4 8.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:33 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 565 96 35 1 25 94 76 95 5 1 -2.3 .315 .411 .548 .312 .315 .415 .572 .336 67.1 133-C -7 8.1
75o 534 83 31 1 21 85 70 91 4 1 -2.1 .303 .397 .517 .240 .303 .402 .540 .323 54.0 126-C -6 7.1
60o 502 70 27 1 18 76 64 87 4 1 -1.9 .290 .383 .485 .166 .290 .387 .507 .310 41.6 118-C -5 6.0
50o 489 65 25 1 17 72 61 85 3 1 -1.9 .285 .377 .473 .137 .285 .382 .494 .305 37.1 115-C -4 5.7
40o 480 62 24 1 16 70 60 84 3 1 -1.8 .282 .374 .465 .118 .282 .378 .485 .302 34.2 113-C -4 5.4
25o 442 50 20 1 13 60 53 78 3 1 -1.6 .267 .358 .429 .035 .268 .362 .448 .286 22.4 105-C -3 4.4
10o 393 38 16 1 10 49 45 71 2 1 -1.4 .251 .338 .387 -.064 .251 .342 .404 .267 10.4 94-C -2 3.2
Weighted Mean 525 74 28 1 19 78 66 91 4 1 -1.9 .287 .380 .479 .151 .288 .384 .500 .306 37.1 124-C -5 6.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

34%

26%

12%

0.88

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 36) 525 74 28 1 19 78 66 91 4 1 -1.9 .287 .380 .479 .151 .288 .384 .500 .306 37.1 124-C -5 6.2
2009 (age 37) 513 69 27 1 19 74 62 90 4 1 -1.5 .279 .371 .473 .122 .284 .381 .503 .301 28.9 121-C -5 4.8
2010 (age 38) 467 58 25 1 15 65 53 85 3 1 -1.1 .278 .366 .456 .091 .283 .376 .485 .295 18.1 111-C -7 3.1
2011 (age 39) 392 44 20 1 13 54 45 71 2 1 -0.9 .272 .360 .455 .075 .277 .370 .484 .292 14.0 94-C -5 2.5
2012 (age 40) 324 34 15 1 11 46 41 59 1 1 -0.4 .270 .365 .450 .076 .274 .375 .479 .292 6.3 79-C -7 1.1
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .298 .380 .488
vs RHP .283 .380 .471
Split +.015 -.001 +.018
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 3.9 2.3 6.2 $15,850,000 35.5 54.0
2009 2.9 1.9 4.8 $12,375,000 27.7 40.7
2010 1.9 1.2 3.1 $7,450,000 16.0 22.8
2011 1.5 1.0 2.5 $6,075,000 12.5 16.0
2012 0.7 0.4 1.1 $2,575,000 5.2 8.0
2013 0.4 0.3 0.7 $1,650,000 2.8 4.4
2014 0.3 0.3 0.6 $1,675,000 3.0 4.4
Peak 18.5 $39,525,000 99.8 145.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .323 .305 .286 .306
2009 .314 .298 .270 .301
2010 .308 .291 .265 .295
2011 .303 .288 .272 .292
2012 .308 .277 .250 .292
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 7%
2009 31% 11% 3%
2010 51% 28% 1%
2011 56% 40% 2%
2012 79% 62% 3%
2013 85% 77% 0%
2014 92% 88% 0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

23

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chili Davis 1992 40 11 Tim McCarver 2003 33
2 J.T. Snow 1979 36 12 Gene Woodling 1971 33
3 Carlton Fisk 1981 36 13 Gary Sheffield 1982 33
4 Alan Ashby 1970 36 14 Stan Musial 1960 33
5 George Brett 1973 35 15 Ken Caminiti 2007 32
6 Frank Robinson 1992 35 16 Ernie Whitt 1975 32
7 Ellis Burks 1975 34 17 Paul O'Neill 1969 32
8 Eddie Murray 1975 34 18 Sid Gordon 2000 31
9 Fred McGriff 1957 34 19 Mike Piazza 1979 30
10 Larry Walker 1998 33 20 Billy Williams 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

Posada quietly had a great year. While postseason talking heads spent October smooching Pudge Rodriguez`s overrated fundament, they missed that, for the sixth year in a row, Posada left him in the dust. Since 2000, BP`s translated batting stats have Posada hitting .283/.395/.506 with a .307 EqA, while Rodriguez has hit .314/.358/.524 with a .296 EqA. In addition to the huge lead in OBP, Posada also led Pudge in isolated power .210 to .198. (He also outproduced Mike Piazza`s translated .291/.369/.535, .302 EqA over that span.) Posada caught up defensively this year as well. Coach Tony Pena tweaked Posada`s throwing mechanics, and the result was a career high in runners caught stealing (though his passed ball tendencies persisted). Posada will remain valuable for at least another year or two.

2006

It was his weakest season since 1999, yet he still posted a .285 EQA. Though the Yankees are correctly nervous about the tendency of catchers in his age group to suffer a sudden, rapid collapse, they underrate his combination of power and patience at their own risk as it`s not easily found in a backstop. In terms of pitches seen per PA it was the least patient year of Posada`s career, but as fall dawned, Posada went back to his old, selective ways, seeing over four pitchers per. Not coincidentally, September was his best month since May. He has more left in the tank; his walks and power will shore up his value even as his batting average fades.

2005

Early in the off-season there were rumors that Posada might be traded, a ludicrous proposition. In previous seasons, when Posada was one of one or two productive backstops in the league, he represented a huge advantage, as if the Yankees got to play two first basemen to their opponents' one. Now that there are a few more hitters at the position, he still prevents the strategic balance from shifting towards other teams. Posada had a torrid spring, a weak June, then spent the rest of the season hitting about like he always does. Given the light workload of his early career—thanks Joe Girardi!—there is no reason to think he can't keep it up at least through the '06 end of his contract. The Yankees undervalue him at their own risk.

2003

There were major concerns about whether or not Posada’s surgically repaired shoulder would be ready to go by Opening Day, but he was fully recovered in time, and logged another nifty season. It’s hard not to be a little bittersweet about Posada; he had to waste time waiting for Joe Girardi to be moved aside, so like Ellie Howard, his career totals probably won’t end up jumping off the charts. However, Posada didn’t really start catching until 1992, converting in his second pro season. If that’s saved his knees any wear and tear, he could age relatively gracefully. Physically, although he’s got an old player skill set, he was once a pretty nimble second baseman. He’ll be the league’s best catcher for another couple of seasons, but I like his chances of retaining a lot of his value well into his 30s.

2002

Jorge Posada is a great ballplayer, a switch hitter who actually should be one, hitting for power and average and showing good plate discipline. He's good at working with pitchers and relatively durable, too. Posada is arb-eligible this season and eligible for free agency after the 2002 season. The Yankees would be wise to sign him to a four-year deal.

2001

That'll do. Jorge Posada was the best catcher in the AL last year. Even with Ivan Rodriguez healthy, Posada shouldn't slip further than second, maybe third if Mitch Meluskey plays a lot. Posada tired a bit in September and is not a big guy, so playing him in 151 games again would be a mistake. Then again, with Joe Oliver as the backup, maybe Posada should go for 162.

2000

He suffered through a first half so bad that the Yankees, worried by his spiraling strikeout rate and a spate of passed balls, had his eyesight tested. Nothing unusual was detected, and Posada played much better in the second half, despite which he still was on the bench for most of the postseason. He hits much better from the right side, and will play a few weeks of winter ball to work on his swing from the left side. Still, the Yankees would be well served to find a left-handed-hitting backup. He will outperform that projection with more playing time, especially now that Personal Catcher to the Stars is gone.

1999

The second-best catcher in the league behind Ivan Rodriguez, Posada has great secondary skills, is a legitimate switch-hitter, throws well and is getting better at the other aspects of catching. I think he'll peak around a .900 OPS in the next few years. He's thin, and wore down late this year, so I think having a quality backup around is a good idea. Maybe Girardi knows someone.

1998

Posada finally got his well-deserved job in the majors this year. He started slowly, but was fantastic in the second half. Obviously, he’s a better player than Girardi, and should be the regular catcher this year. His physique—he’s not a big guy—is a bit of a concern, and since he seems more comfortable batting left-handed, a quality right-handed semi-platoon partner would be a good idea. Posada will be a good player for the next few years.

1997

Yummy. Posada also has a good defensive reputation to go with the numbers above, and deserves at least a share of the catching job in New York. What the Yankees do at catcher will tell us a lot about their chances in 1997 and beyond. Posada is much cheaper and…better than Girardi.

1996

There are worse catching prospects...in front of him on the depth chart.


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