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Jason Phillips
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 31
6' 1"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LAN MJ 434 38 20 0 10 55 25 50 0 1 -3.7 .238 .287 .363 -.151 .239 .289 .372 .229 -2.9 88-C -11 1.0
2006 SYR 3A 281 31 11 0 7 40 22 43 1 1 -2.0 .273 .341 .402 .029 .258 .324 .393 .250 5.1 54-C -6 1.2
2006 TOR MJ 51 4 6 0 0 6 1 5 0 1 -0.8 .250 .275 .375 -.227 .250 .275 .375 .218 -2.0 0.0
2007 ABQ 3A 28 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0.5 .185 .179 .185 -.789 .185 .179 .185 .070 -4.5 -0.3
2007 TOR MJ 158 11 7 0 1 12 10 21 0 1 -0.7 .208 .269 .278 -.372 .217 .282 .301 .202 -8.2 41-C -5 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:25 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 166 19 8 0 4 17 11 25 0 0 -0.7 .272 .327 .400 -.050 .270 .329 .404 .260 3.6 43-C -6 0.9
75o 155 14 7 0 3 15 10 23 0 0 -0.6 .246 .299 .357 -.174 .245 .301 .360 .234 -1.2 40-C -5 0.4
60o 149 12 6 0 2 14 9 23 0 0 -0.5 .232 .284 .333 -.241 .231 .285 .336 .219 -3.6 39-C -5 0.2
50o 144 10 6 0 2 13 8 22 0 0 -0.5 .222 .272 .315 -.291 .221 .273 .318 .208 -5.2 38-C -5 0.0
40o 136 9 5 0 2 11 7 21 0 0 -0.4 .208 .256 .291 -.359 .207 .257 .294 .190 -7.2 36-C -5 -0.2
25o 125 6 4 0 1 9 6 20 0 0 -0.4 .188 .233 .257 -.454 .187 .234 .260 .162 -9.4 34-C -5 -0.4
10o 68 2 2 0 0 3 3 12 0 0 -0.2 .152 .189 .195 -.632 .151 .190 .197 .027 -8.0 21-C -3 -0.5
Weighted Mean 125 8 5 0 2 11 7 19 0 0 -0.5 .217 .267 .307 -.313 .216 .268 .310 .201 -5.3 34-C -4 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

36%

47%

52%

1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 31) 125 8 5 0 2 11 7 19 0 0 -0.5 .217 .267 .307 -.313 .216 .268 .310 .201 -5.3 34-C -4 0.4
2009 (age 32) 126 8 5 0 2 12 8 20 0 0 -0.4 .218 .273 .306 -.302 .220 .279 .315 .205 -3.9 34-C -4 0.1
2010 (age 33) 114 7 5 0 2 11 7 18 0 0 -0.3 .220 .271 .322 -.284 .222 .277 .332 .208 -2.4 31-C -4 0.1
2011 (age 34) 103 7 4 0 2 11 6 17 0 0 -0.2 .228 .282 .338 -.240 .231 .288 .348 .219 -1.1 29-C -5 0.1
2012 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .232 .287 .335
vs RHP .213 .260 .295
Split +.019 +.028 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.2 0.7 0.4 $575,000 -8.2 0.1
2009 -0.2 0.3 0.1 $450,000 -6.2 0.0
2010 0.0 0.2 0.1 $425,000 -4.4 0.0
2011 0.0 0.1 0.1 $425,000 -2.6 0.1
2012 0.0 0.1 0.0 $425,000 -2.0 0.0
2013 0.0 0.1 0.1 $450,000 -0.5 0.0
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 -0.8 0.0
Peak 0.8 $250,000 0.0 0.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .234 .208 .162 .201
2009 .225 .209 .158 .205
2010 .230 .212 .172 .208
2011 .249 .222 .152 .219
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 52% 0% 19%
2009 62% 24% 13%
2010 75% 41% 15%
2011 87% 57% 17%
2012 94% 70% 16%
2013 96% 82% 12%
2014 97% 87% 10%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

58

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Russ Gibson 1992 40 11 Matt Treanor 2003 33
2 Jeff Torborg 1979 36 12 Jose Molina 1971 33
3 Scott Servais 1981 36 13 Andy Etchebarren 1982 33
4 Mike Difelice 1970 36 14 Mike Roarke 1960 33
5 John Boccabella 1973 35 15 John Flaherty 2007 32
6 Jerry McNertney 1992 35 16 Pat Borders 1975 32
7 Mike Matheny 1975 34 17 Bob Melvin 1969 32
8 Ray Katt 1975 34 18 Geronimo Gil 2000 31
9 Kirt Manwaring 1957 34 19 Chris Widger 1979 30
10 Chad Moeller 1998 33 20 Bill Haselman 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Baseball`s most famous aging hipster, Jason Phillips`s big season with the Mets in 2003 now looks like a one-year fluke; there hasn`t been much evidence before or since that he can hit better than your usual backup catcher. He`s been re-signed for next year as the primary backup to Gregg Zaun.

2005

His 2003 line was batting average-driven, and that it pushed the Mets into the Piazza-to-first mess was a big contribution to 2004's lost season. When Phillips' average collapsed, it took the rest of his offense with him. He's qualified to be a Mike Redmond-level backup catcher, with a little more pop than that. He's not Brian Harper, and even if he were, nothing would have justified messing around with the Mets' best player.

2003

Phillips’s misfortune is that while the Mets would love to have a catcher who could let them move Piazza to first base, it won’t be him. Because of nimble footwork and a snappy release, he controls the running game well, and he has decent power. He’ll make a great backup or part-timer, but that isn’t enough to get him 300 at-bats on a team that needs all the offense it can get. Right around now would be a great time to find another Ed Hearn buyer.

2002

Like Vance Wilson, Phillips is viewed primarily as a defensive catcher, thanks in part to an extraordinarily quick release. The Mets were encouraged by Phillips’s offensive growth in 2001 and see him as part of the team’s future. Keep in mind that by blocking off both infield corners this winter, the Mets effectively locked Piazza in at catcher for the next few years, blocking their catcher prospects.

2000

Phillips reached Binghamton on the strength of his arm and has reasonable power. If he can't or won't hit for a higher average, neither of those things will matter.

1998


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