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Brayan Pena
Kansas City Royals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 27
5' 11"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Royals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Brayan Pena 10 22 .277 3 0 3 0 .321 .420 0.4
1   2009 Total 10 22 .277 3 0 3 0 .321 .420 0.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 RIC AAA 352 32 18 1 1 33 21 28 6 6 -1.8 .302 .342 .372 -.178 .272 .312 .343 .230 -6.1 80-C -5 0.0
2006 ATL MLB 43 9 2 0 1 5 2 5 0 0 0.1 .268 .302 .390 -.135 .268 .302 .390 .238 0.2 8-C -2 -0.2
2007 RIC AAA 370 42 20 2 6 48 19 38 5 7 -4.6 .301 .341 .423 -.143 .264 .299 .390 .235 -2.7 30-C -8 20-1B -1 -1.9
2007 ATL MLB 33 2 0 0 1 3 0 3 0 1 -0.3 .212 .212 .303 -.454 .212 .212 .303 .152 -2.5 7-C 2 0.0
2008 OMA AAA 266 33 17 1 6 31 26 17 7 3 -3.9 .303 .376 .462 -.150 .246 .313 .375 .242 -2.4 44-C -5 5-3B -1 -0.2
2008 ATL MLB 15 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -0.2 .286 .333 .357 -.112 .286 .333 .357 .243 0.2 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:32 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 395 56 23 2 7 46 30 40 8 3 -1.1 .304 .360 .441 .076 .301 .358 .455 .284 20.9 94-C -8 2.7
75o 371 44 20 2 5 40 25 39 6 3 -1.0 .282 .334 .398 -.047 .278 .332 .411 .261 9.0 89-C -8 1.6
60o 351 36 18 1 4 35 22 38 5 2 -0.9 .264 .313 .365 -.142 .260 .311 .376 .242 0.7 84-C -7 0.8
50o 345 33 17 1 4 34 21 38 5 2 -0.9 .259 .307 .355 -.170 .255 .305 .366 .236 -1.6 83-C -7 0.5
40o 332 29 16 1 3 31 19 37 5 2 -0.8 .248 .295 .335 -.227 .245 .293 .346 .224 -5.9 80-C -7 0.1
25o 319 25 15 1 2 28 17 37 4 2 -0.7 .238 .283 .317 -.280 .235 .281 .327 .212 -9.6 77-C -7 -0.3
10o 286 18 12 0 1 22 14 35 3 2 -0.6 .216 .255 .274 -.401 .213 .254 .283 .181 -16.7 70-C -6 -1.1
Weighted Mean 362 36 18 1 4 35 22 40 5 2 -0.8 .258 .307 .354 -.155 .255 .305 .366 .235 -1.9 87-C -6 0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

52%

29%

23%

1.04

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 27) 362 36 18 1 4 35 22 40 5 2 -0.8 .258 .307 .354 -.155 .255 .305 .366 .235 -1.9 87-C -6 0.6
2010 (age 28) 336 33 17 1 4 32 22 36 5 2 -0.7 .258 .310 .355 -.151 .258 .312 .370 .237 -0.8 81-C -6 0.6
2011 (age 29) 331 32 17 1 3 31 21 36 5 1 -0.5 .259 .311 .353 -.150 .259 .313 .369 .237 -0.6 80-C -7 0.3
2012 (age 30) 334 32 16 1 3 32 22 36 6 2 -0.5 .256 .308 .348 -.164 .256 .310 .363 .235 -1.3 81-C -9 0.2
2013 (age 31) 323 31 16 1 4 32 21 35 5 2 -0.3 .262 .314 .361 -.130 .262 .316 .377 .241 0.3 78-C -9 0.2
2014 (age 32) 231 18 12 1 2 23 15 25 4 1 -0.2 .257 .308 .348 -.164 .258 .310 .363 .236 -0.7 58-C -5 0.2
2015 (age 33) 280 27 15 1 3 30 19 30 5 1 -0.2 .273 .324 .375 -.086 .273 .327 .391 .250 1.3 68-C -8 0.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .281 .316 .396
vs RHP .251 .303 .333
Split +.031 +.013 +.063
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -3.4 -6.0 0.6 $575,000 -4.3 2.2
2010 -2.5 -6.0 0.6 $825,000 -2.5 3.9
2011 -2.4 -7.0 0.3 $575,000 -3.2 1.7
2012 -3.1 -9.0 0.2 $400,000 -4.3 1.3
2013 -1.0 -9.0 0.2 $550,000 -2.7 2.1
2014 -2.1 -5.0 0.2 $725,000 -1.8 1.4
2015 1.6 -8.0 0.2 $925,000 -0.2 1.3
Peak 2.1 $1,725,000 0.0 12.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .261 .236 .212 .235
2010 .265 .236 .209 .237
2011 .258 .235 .212 .237
2012 .268 .224 .199 .235
2013 .257 .237 .205 .241
2014 .264 .233 .184 .236
2015 .264 .247 .227 .250


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 23% 0% 30%
2010 32% 9% 31%
2011 42% 21% 26%
2012 51% 30% 27%
2013 58% 41% 21%
2014 68% 46% 20%
2015 75% 60% 20%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

47

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Humberto Quintero 2007 42 11 Bengie Molina 2002 30
2 Carlos Ruiz 2006 39 12 Eddie Perez 1995 29
3 Josh Bard 2005 37 13 Steve Christmas 1985 28
4 Wiki Gonzalez 2001 34 14 Ed Fitz Gerald 1951 27
5 Raul Gonzalez 2001 34 15 Mike Brumley 1966 27
6 Edwards Guzman 2004 34 16 Yorvit Torrealba 2006 27
7 Danny Sandoval 2006 34 17 Buck Rodgers 1966 26
8 Joe Azcue 1967 33 18 Cam Carreon 1965 26
9 Sandy Alomar 1993 32 19 Hal Smith 1958 26
10 Joe Girardi 1992 32 20 Russ Nixon 1962 26

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Brayan Pe?a's empty .300 averages in Triple-A haven't translated yet, and Clint Sammons is about to pass him, but Pe?a will have other chances.

2007

Pena's a groundball hitter, which is probably not ideal for a catcher--you don't get too many leg hits after you've been squatting for three hours. On offense, Pena doesn't stay at the plate very long, as evidenced by his 3.3 pitches per plate appearance in his short major league stint and the fact that he walked in 6 percent of his plate appearances at Richmond while striking out in only 8 percent. He's a decent enough backup in an organization with Saltalamacchia and McCann to its credit. Assuming one of them gets dealt, somebody has to inherit Eddie Perez`s mantle.

2006

Leapfrogged by McCann when the injury bug bit, this Havana native isn`t as bad as that would suggest. Though Pena`s defensive reputation is a bit inflated thus far, he would seem to have all the makings for a career of backup backstopping if nothing else. Expect him to be the odd man out unless McCann struggles, and to find himself in another organization before he`s 25. When undead catcher caddies like Pat Borders and John Flaherty are considered valuable commodities, this guy can help somebody.


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