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Ronny Paulino
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 28
6' 2"
245 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Marlins Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Ronny Paulino 40 88 .255 8 2 10 0 .320 .385 0.7
1   2009 Total 40 88 .255 8 2 10 0 .320 .385 0.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 IND AAA 32 2 3 0 0 4 3 8 1 0 0.6 .241 .313 .345 -.317 .207 .281 .310 .216 -1.9 7-C 2 0.2
2006 PIT MLB 481 37 19 0 6 55 34 79 0 0 -2.3 .310 .360 .394 -.015 .306 .358 .385 .263 15.9 119-C 0 2.3
2007 PIT MLB 494 56 25 0 11 55 33 79 2 2 -1.0 .263 .314 .389 -.082 .266 .320 .407 .250 9.6 122-C -2 1.5
2008 PIR Rk 30 3 1 0 1 6 2 3 0 0 -0.4 .286 .333 .429 -.745 .138 .167 .172 .000 -14.7 5-C -1 -0.8
2008 IND AAA 126 16 13 1 4 18 13 31 0 2 -1.0 .306 .373 .550 .066 .268 .333 .500 .279 6.8 23-C 1 1.0
2008 PIT MLB 130 8 5 0 2 18 11 24 0 0 0.0 .212 .277 .305 -.306 .212 .277 .322 .210 -3.9 29-C -1 -0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:24 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 341 47 20 1 12 47 30 64 1 1 -1.9 .290 .356 .479 .105 .291 .356 .486 .286 22.0 82-C -3 2.9
75o 319 36 17 1 9 40 27 61 1 1 -1.7 .265 .328 .424 -.036 .265 .329 .431 .261 10.1 77-C -2 1.9
60o 301 29 15 1 7 35 24 59 1 0 -1.5 .245 .308 .384 -.141 .245 .308 .389 .241 2.2 73-C -1 1.2
50o 295 27 14 1 7 33 23 58 1 0 -1.4 .239 .301 .370 -.175 .239 .301 .376 .234 -0.2 72-C -1 1.0
40o 287 24 13 1 6 31 22 57 1 0 -1.4 .231 .293 .355 -.215 .232 .293 .360 .226 -2.9 70-C -1 0.7
25o 276 21 12 1 5 28 21 56 1 0 -1.3 .221 .281 .332 -.273 .221 .282 .337 .213 -6.6 68-C -1 0.3
10o 236 12 9 0 2 18 16 50 0 0 -1.0 .189 .246 .264 -.446 .189 .246 .268 .168 -15.1 59-C 0 -0.6
Weighted Mean 280 25 14 1 6 31 22 55 1 0 -1.4 .243 .305 .379 -.147 .243 .306 .384 .237 3.3 68-C -1 1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

27%

41%

32%

37%

1.10

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 28) 280 25 14 1 6 31 22 55 1 0 -1.4 .243 .305 .379 -.147 .243 .306 .384 .237 3.3 68-C -1 1.2
2010 (age 29) 271 24 14 0 6 30 20 52 1 0 -1.1 .248 .307 .380 -.162 .245 .303 .381 .238 1.6 66-C -1 1.0
2011 (age 30) 291 28 14 1 7 34 23 56 1 0 -1.0 .251 .311 .388 -.142 .247 .307 .389 .243 2.4 71-C 0 1.0
2012 (age 31) 352 36 18 0 8 41 27 67 1 0 -0.9 .246 .305 .380 -.166 .242 .301 .381 .238 1.1 85-C -2 0.8
2013 (age 32) 205 15 10 0 4 23 17 41 1 0 -0.6 .233 .298 .356 -.220 .230 .294 .356 .228 -1.0 52-C -2 0.3
2014 (age 33) 212 16 10 0 5 25 17 41 1 0 -0.4 .235 .300 .366 -.200 .232 .296 .367 .232 -0.2 53-C -1 0.3
2015 (age 34) 217 18 11 0 6 27 16 42 1 0 -0.3 .253 .311 .394 -.133 .249 .307 .395 .244 1.1 54-C -1 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .260 .329 .406
vs RHP .237 .295 .363
Split +.022 +.034 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 0.5 -1.0 1.2 $1,350,000 0.3 5.2
2010 0.7 -1.0 1.0 $1,350,000 -0.2 4.2
2011 2.1 0.0 1.0 $1,475,000 0.9 3.5
2012 0.7 -2.0 0.8 $1,350,000 -0.5 3.5
2013 -1.6 -2.0 0.3 $675,000 -2.9 0.6
2014 -0.8 -1.0 0.3 $950,000 -1.2 1.0
2015 1.9 -1.0 0.4 $1,250,000 1.0 2.3
Peak 4.8 $3,875,000 0.0 18.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .261 .234 .213 .237
2010 .266 .238 .219 .238
2011 .265 .243 .226 .243
2012 .258 .231 .212 .238
2013 .253 .220 .202 .228
2014 .257 .237 .211 .232
2015 .264 .239 .208 .244


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 37% 0% 27%
2010 41% 10% 26%
2011 52% 25% 21%
2012 54% 35% 15%
2013 77% 42% 11%
2014 79% 54% 11%
2015 87% 69% 11%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

46

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Keith McDonald 2001 48 11 Corky Miller 2004 28
2 Ramon Hernandez 2004 40 12 Joe Azcue 1967 27
3 Barbaro Canizares 2008 38 13 Eddie Perez 1996 27
4 Humberto Quintero 2007 37 14 John Ellis 1976 27
5 Harry Chiti 1961 35 15 Shawn Riggans 2008 26
6 Carlos Hernandez 1995 33 16 Mike Rivera 2004 26
7 Robert Machado 2001 32 17 Brian Johnson 1996 26
8 Wiki Gonzalez 2002 30 18 Chad Moeller 2003 26
9 Bill Haselman 1994 29 19 Jose Leon 2005 26
10 Sandy Alomar 1994 28 20 Ron Johnson 1984 25

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

As big of a surprise as Paulino was in 2006, when he came up from the minor leagues in mid-April and seized the starting catcher's job, he was that much of a disappointment in 2007. Paulino's work habits last year were poor and he regressed both at the plate and behind it. Most of his regression on offense, however, was due to a 47-point dip in batting average, as he actually hit for more power and saw very little change in his walk rate. There's still potential here if Paulino can improve his worth ethic and get his average and his defense to rebound.

2007

Paulino was lost in the great flood of quality rookies in 2006, but he posted a WARP3 of 4.9, good enough for third among National League catchers behind sophomore Brian McCann of the Braves and fellow rookie Russell Martin of the Dodgers. Paulino is two years older than Martin and three years older than McCann, but there`s nothing new about a catcher getting a late entry into the big leagues. He`s a plus guy behind the plate but his lack of noticeable secondary offensive skills (.050 on-base and .084 slugging) are a bit worrisome in a regular; a batting average collapse would take his whole offensive game down with it.

2006

Paulino is one of the most underrated prospects in the system. The organization loves his defensive skills, and he`s cultivated a good power stroke over the past two seasons. The problem, for the time being, is that Paulino is behind Ryan Doumit in the organizational catching queue. However, because of his superior glove, it may be Doumit who finds himself moved to another position. The Pirates have had to make a lot of decisions like this in recent years: Craig Wilson: animal, vegetable, or mineral? Is Tike Redman or isn`t he? Who`s on first? Whatever the case, they`ve rarely been decisive, meaning they might not commit to either Paulino or Doumit at catcher for a long time. Jim Tracy`s first test will be to demonstrate more ability than Lloyd McClendon at sorting out options.

2005

The Eastern league's All-Star catcher hasn't had an easy path, having lost time in 2003 to the Rule 5 draft (yes, it was a problem in previous years too), and injuries plagued him in 2002 and 2003. However, he finally put in a healthy season, and played his way onto the 40-man roster. His future depends on two things: If Cota fails to claim the job from Santiago some time this year, and if Doumit keeps getting hurt. He lacks Doumit's offensive potential, but he's not too dissimilar from Cota, including the plus defensive rep.


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