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Ronny Paulino
Pittsburgh Pirates [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 27
6' 2"
245 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Pirates Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 7 Ronny Paulino 60 390 .268 44 9 44 4 .328 .407 12.6
1   2008 Total 60 390 .268 44 9 44 4 .328 .407 12.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 ALT 2A 184 24 6 0 6 20 15 30 3 0 1.6 .292 .350 .435 .127 .260 .317 .391 .248 2.7 40-C 3 1.5
2005 IND 3A 302 49 18 2 13 42 26 48 3 0 0.9 .315 .372 .538 .274 .285 .344 .485 .282 20.9 63-C 3 3.5
2005 PIT MJ 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.0 .500 .600 .500 .763 .500 .600 .500 .414 1.1 0.1
2006 IND 3A 32 2 3 0 0 4 3 8 1 0 0.4 .241 .313 .345 -.054 .207 .281 .345 .216 -1.5 0.0
2006 PIT MJ 481 37 19 0 6 55 34 79 0 0 -2.3 .310 .360 .394 .033 .306 .360 .392 .265 16.4 119-C 0 4.9
2007 PIT MJ 494 56 25 0 11 55 33 79 2 2 -0.2 .263 .314 .389 -.086 .267 .322 .407 .251 8.1 122-C -1 3.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:05 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 438 68 25 2 15 57 36 71 7 1 -0.6 .305 .366 .497 .149 .300 .363 .505 .293 33.4 104-C -1 5.3
75o 407 54 21 2 12 49 33 66 6 1 -0.5 .287 .348 .454 .043 .282 .345 .461 .275 21.0 97-C -1 4.1
60o 378 44 18 1 9 43 30 61 5 1 -0.5 .271 .331 .415 -.050 .266 .329 .422 .258 11.2 90-C -1 3.2
50o 363 39 17 1 8 39 28 59 4 1 -0.4 .263 .323 .396 -.097 .259 .320 .402 .249 6.9 87-C 0 2.8
40o 351 35 16 1 7 37 27 57 4 1 -0.4 .257 .316 .381 -.132 .252 .314 .387 .242 3.7 84-C 0 2.4
25o 323 28 13 1 5 31 24 53 3 1 -0.4 .244 .302 .348 -.210 .239 .300 .354 .226 -2.5 78-C 0 1.8
10o 260 16 9 0 2 21 18 42 2 1 -0.3 .217 .274 .283 -.366 .213 .272 .287 .188 -11.5 64-C 0 0.6
Weighted Mean 373 42 18 1 9 43 29 61 5 1 -0.4 .268 .328 .407 -.069 .263 .325 .414 .253 12.0 89-C 1 3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

22%

39%

38%

29%

0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 27) 373 42 18 1 9 43 29 61 5 1 -0.4 .268 .328 .407 -.069 .263 .325 .414 .253 12.0 89-C 1 3.5
2009 (age 28) 365 42 17 1 9 42 31 60 5 1 -0.4 .270 .335 .411 -.049 .261 .327 .411 .258 9.1 88-C 0 2.6
2010 (age 29) 348 39 17 1 9 42 28 57 5 1 -0.4 .277 .337 .419 -.031 .268 .329 .418 .261 10.0 84-C -1 2.5
2011 (age 30) 352 39 16 1 8 40 28 58 5 1 -0.4 .270 .333 .406 -.060 .261 .325 .406 .256 7.4 85-C 0 2.2
2012 (age 31) 378 43 18 1 9 43 31 62 5 1 -0.3 .267 .331 .401 -.072 .258 .323 .401 .253 6.1 90-C -2 1.9
2013 (age 32) 338 36 16 1 8 38 28 56 3 1 -0.3 .266 .328 .407 -.071 .257 .321 .406 .253 5.1 81-C -1 1.7
2014 (age 33) 324 35 15 1 8 37 29 53 2 1 -0.3 .273 .340 .409 -.042 .264 .332 .408 .258 5.3 78-C -3 1.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .285 .353 .435
vs RHP .262 .316 .389
Split +.024 +.037 +.045
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.9 2.6 3.5 $6,300,000 11.0 14.7
2009 0.9 1.7 2.6 $4,600,000 7.6 10.9
2010 1.0 1.5 2.5 $4,850,000 8.1 12.0
2011 0.7 1.4 2.2 $4,200,000 5.8 9.5
2012 0.6 1.3 1.9 $3,600,000 3.9 8.4
2013 0.6 1.1 1.7 $3,500,000 4.2 9.7
2014 0.5 0.9 1.5 $3,175,000 3.6 5.3
Peak 14.4 $21,050,000 40.5 65.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .275 .249 .226 .253
2009 .286 .259 .232 .258
2010 .278 .261 .234 .261
2011 .277 .251 .238 .256
2012 .268 .249 .226 .253
2013 .282 .249 .218 .253
2014 .279 .253 .221 .258


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 29% 0% 22%
2009 42% 9% 24%
2010 42% 14% 18%
2011 46% 22% 17%
2012 52% 27% 13%
2013 65% 39% 15%
2014 68% 47% 12%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

47

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Ramon Hernandez 1992 40 11 John Ellis 2003 33
2 Ray Fosse 1979 36 12 Doc Edwards 1971 33
3 Harry Chiti 1981 36 13 Javy Lopez 1982 33
4 Dan Walters 1970 36 14 Andres Galarraga 1960 33
5 Ed Hearn 1973 35 15 John Orsino 2007 32
6 Andy Allanson 1992 35 16 Mike Macfarlane 1975 32
7 Sandy Alomar 1975 34 17 John Buck 1969 32
8 Ken Harvey 1975 34 18 Earl Battey 2000 31
9 Johnny Edwards 1957 34 19 Dave Skaggs 1979 30
10 Dave Engle 1998 33 20 Cam Carreon 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

Paulino was lost in the great flood of quality rookies in 2006, but he posted a WARP3 of 4.9, good enough for third among National League catchers behind sophomore Brian McCann of the Braves and fellow rookie Russell Martin of the Dodgers. Paulino is two years older than Martin and three years older than McCann, but there`s nothing new about a catcher getting a late entry into the big leagues. He`s a plus guy behind the plate but his lack of noticeable secondary offensive skills (.050 on-base and .084 slugging) are a bit worrisome in a regular; a batting average collapse would take his whole offensive game down with it.

2006

Paulino is one of the most underrated prospects in the system. The organization loves his defensive skills, and he`s cultivated a good power stroke over the past two seasons. The problem, for the time being, is that Paulino is behind Ryan Doumit in the organizational catching queue. However, because of his superior glove, it may be Doumit who finds himself moved to another position. The Pirates have had to make a lot of decisions like this in recent years: Craig Wilson: animal, vegetable, or mineral? Is Tike Redman or isn`t he? Who`s on first? Whatever the case, they`ve rarely been decisive, meaning they might not commit to either Paulino or Doumit at catcher for a long time. Jim Tracy`s first test will be to demonstrate more ability than Lloyd McClendon at sorting out options.

2005

The Eastern league's All-Star catcher hasn't had an easy path, having lost time in 2003 to the Rule 5 draft (yes, it was a problem in previous years too), and injuries plagued him in 2002 and 2003. However, he finally put in a healthy season, and played his way onto the 40-man roster. His future depends on two things: If Cota fails to claim the job from Santiago some time this year, and if Doumit keeps getting hurt. He lacks Doumit's offensive potential, but he's not too dissimilar from Cota, including the plus defensive rep.


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