David Pauley

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 1:41 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	6	0	25	17	105.7	118	40	57	11	51%	.301	-1	1.49	4.62	4.58	4.56	9.4	3.1	4.4	0.9	12.6	1.9	2.2
75^o	5	7	0	25	16	98.7	119	40	52	12	51%	.316	-6	1.61	5.48	5.23	5.39	10.2	3.3	4.4	1.1	1.7	0.8	1.1
60^o	4	7	0	25	15	93.3	119	39	49	13	51%	.328	-9	1.70	6.16	5.74	6.03	10.8	3.5	4.3	1.2	-5.8	0.0	0.4
50^o	4	7	0	25	15	90.7	119	39	47	13	51%	.333	-11	1.74	6.50	6.00	6.35	11.1	3.5	4.3	1.2	-9.2	-0.3	0.0
40^o	4	7	0	25	15	87.7	119	39	45	13	51%	.340	-13	1.80	6.93	6.34	6.76	11.5	3.6	4.2	1.3	-13.4	-0.7	-0.4
25^o	3	7	0	24	14	80.0	118	38	40	14	51%	.357	-18	1.95	8.00	7.18	7.77	12.5	3.9	4.2	1.5	-22.1	-1.6	-1.3
10^o	2	6	0	23	12	66.3	113	36	32	14	51%	.388	-29	2.25	10.09	8.92	9.70	14.4	4.4	4.0	1.9	-34.2	-2.9	-2.6
Weighted Mean	4	7	0	25	14	88.3	117	38	46	13	51%	.334	-11	1.75	6.57	6.03	6.42	11.2	3.6	4.3	1.2	-9.7	-0.4	0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
24%	58%	17%	18%	1.30

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	4	7	0	25	14	88.3	117	38	46	13	51%	.334	-11	1.75	6.57	6.03	6.42	11.2	3.6	4.3	1.2	-9.7	-0.4	0.1
2009 (age 26)	4	6	0	25	12	79.3	107	33	41	12	51%	.337	-14	1.75	6.46	6.08	6.30	11.4	3.4	4.3	1.3	-6.8	-0.3	0.2
2010 (age 27)	3	5	0	27	11	75.7	100	30	39	11	50%	.333	-15	1.72	6.46	5.98	6.30	11.2	3.2	4.2	1.3	-5.2	-0.3	0.1
2011 (age 28)	3	4	0	24	8	61.3	85	24	32	8	51%	.348	-14	1.77	6.41	6.17	6.24	11.7	3.2	4.4	1.2	-3.6	-0.2	0.1
2012 (age 29)	3	4	0	24	7	59.0	79	23	30	8	52%	.338	-15	1.72	6.30	5.88	6.17	11.3	3.2	4.1	1.2	-2.8	-0.2	0.1
2013 (age 30)	3	4	0	28	7	62.7	83	23	33	8	51%	.338	-14	1.69	6.16	5.81	6.02	11.2	3.0	4.3	1.1	-1.7	-0.1	0.2
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.303	.395	.474
vs RHB	.288	.360	.436
Split	+.015	+.035	+.038
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.1	$400,000	-9.0	1.6
2009	0.2	$450,000	-6.3	1.7
2010	0.1	$425,000	-4.8	1.7
2011	0.1	$425,000	-3.3	1.3
2012	0.1	$425,000	-2.6	1.5
2013	0.2	$450,000	-1.5	0.5
2014	0.3	$650,000	0.3	1.4
Peak	1.1	$325,000	0.3	8.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.39	6.35	7.77	6.42
2009	5.30	6.33	7.64	6.30
2010	5.11	6.08	7.84	6.30
2011	4.95	6.23	8.39	6.24
2012	4.81	6.22	8.55	6.17
2013	5.04	6.16	8.48	6.02
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	18%	0%	24%
2009	38%	15%	23%
2010	50%	30%	24%
2011	69%	43%	18%
2012	70%	47%	22%
2013	74%	63%	21%
2014	82%	69%	19%

71

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Pep Harris	1997	62		11	Gary Wilson	1995	57
2	Mike Esposito	2006	61		12	Trey Hodges	2003	57
3	Steve Dreyer	1994	60		13	Frank Seminara	1992	57
4	Justin Germano	2007	60		14	Tim Brown	1993	56
5	Ricky Stone	2000	59		15	Tim Harikkala	1996	55
6	Cory Lidle	1997	59		16	Jared Gothreaux	2005	55
7	T.J. Nall	2005	59		17	Craig Holman	1994	55
8	Ben Hendrickson	2006	59		18	Mike Ferry	1994	55
9	Steve Phoenix	1993	58		19	John Frascatore	1995	55
10	Scott Brow	1994	58		20	Brett Jodie	2002	54

Player Comments

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2007

Not ready for prime time yet, this unheralded righty was acquired from the Padres in the Jay Payton-Dave Roberts deal. Pauley has no dominant out-pitch, but he mixes an excellent sinker with a moving low-90s fastball, a good curve, and a pretty good changeup, all of which he throws for strikes. Too many strikes, in fact; he doesn`t miss enough bats, and for a pitcher with groundball tendencies, his stat line suffers from a serious gopher infestation. He`ll try to work it out at Pawtucket.

2006

Part of the return for Dave Roberts last winter, Pauley put in a solid season in his first look at Double-A. He throws a high 80s fastball and changeup, but often relies on a big curve as his out pitch. He looks like a back-of-the-rotation guy. He will likely spend the season in Pawtucket getting ready, but there are a lot of starters ahead of him in the system.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	PME	2A	9	7	0	27	27	156.0	169	34	104	18	54%	.306	-13	1.30	3.81	6.73	6.69	11.4	3.1	3.5	1.6	-17.0		0.8
2006	PME	2A	2	3	0	10	10	60.2	54	17	47	6	55%	.291	-2	1.18	2.39	6.03	4.70	10.2	3.5	4.7	1.5	5.4		1.3
2006	PAW	3A	1	3	0	9	9	50.2	60	18	25	10	50%	.307	-33	1.55	5.56	10.61	10.03	12.0	4.0	3.1	2.7	-23.0		-1.2
2006	BOS	MJ	0	2	0	3	3	16.0	31	6	10	1	47%	.476	-11	2.31	7.88	12.86	9.60	17.4	3.6	5.4	0.6	-3.1	-0.1	-0.4
2007	PAW	3A	6	6	0	27	26	153.7	164	49	110	18	55%	.304	-5	1.39	4.33	6.14	6.17	10.4	3.2	4.6	1.5	-9.3		1.4

Historical Stats