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Chan_Ho Park
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 36
6' 2"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 SDN MLB 7 7 0 24 21 136.7 146 44 96 20 45% .299 12 1.39 4.81 0 5.26 9.8 2.5 5.8 1.2 7.4 2.0 2.0
2007 ROU AAA 2 10 0 15 15 84.0 100 24 70 18 48% .323 3 1.48 6.21 -3 8.23 11.3 2.7 5.3 2.3 -24.0 0.0 -1.7
2007 NWO AAA 4 4 0 9 9 51.7 64 16 49 9 45% .364 13 1.55 5.57 -3 6.13 13.0 3.3 6.5 2.1 -2.8 0.0 0.4
2007 NYN MLB 0 1 0 1 1 4.0 6 2 4 2 29% .333 -6 2.00 15.75 -1 13.50 13.5 4.5 9.0 4.5 -4.7 -0.3 -0.5
2008 LAN MLB 4 4 2 54 5 95.3 97 36 79 12 53% .307 5 1.40 3.40 1 4.01 9.1 3.0 6.6 1.1 16.8 1.8 2.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:36 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 3 3 46 5 83.0 73 25 66 8 46% .270 10 1.18 2.84 0 2.94 7.8 2.4 6.2 0.9 25.9 2.5 3.5
75o 4 3 2 41 4 72.7 72 24 55 9 46% .288 5 1.31 3.81 0 3.95 8.8 2.6 5.9 1.0 14.2 1.4 2.1
60o 4 3 2 37 4 63.7 69 22 47 9 46% .304 1 1.44 4.69 0 4.87 9.7 2.8 5.7 1.2 5.7 0.6 1.2
50o 3 3 1 35 3 59.7 68 22 43 9 46% .311 -1 1.49 5.10 0 5.29 10.1 2.9 5.6 1.3 2.4 0.3 0.8
40o 3 3 1 34 3 57.0 66 21 40 9 46% .316 -3 1.53 5.41 0 5.61 10.4 2.9 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5
25o 2 3 1 29 2 47.7 61 19 32 8 46% .332 -8 1.67 6.45 0 6.67 11.4 3.1 5.2 1.5 -5.6 -0.4 -0.2
10o 1 2 0 21 1 32.3 48 14 20 7 46% .358 -16 1.92 8.29 0 8.54 13.2 3.5 4.7 1.8 -10.9 -0.9 -0.8
Weighted Mean 3 3 2 36 3 60.3 64 21 45 8 46% .301 1 1.41 4.53 0 4.70 9.5 2.7 5.7 1.2 6.3 0.7 1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

52%

24%

39%

1.10

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 36) 3 3 2 36 3 60.3 64 21 45 8 46% .301 1 1.41 4.53 0 4.70 9.5 2.7 5.7 1.2 6.3 0.7 1.1
2010 (age 37) 4 3 2 38 3 62.0 66 21 46 8 47% .298 0 1.40 4.42 0 4.59 9.4 2.7 5.7 1.2 4.9 0.7 0.8
2011 (age 38) 3 3 1 33 2 52.3 60 17 36 7 46% .312 -2 1.47 4.72 0 4.87 10.2 2.6 5.4 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.4
2012 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .280 .365 .456
vs RHB .250 .318 .386
Split +.030 +.048 +.070
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 1.1 $1,700,000 5.7 5.9
2010 0.8 $1,450,000 4.4 3.9
2011 0.4 $925,000 1.9 1.7
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 2.8 $3,150,000 14.5 13.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 3.95 5.29 6.67 4.70
2010 3.85 4.98 7.16 4.59
2011 4.18 5.07 6.73 4.87
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 39% 0% 30%
2010 57% 37% 24%
2011 75% 55% 16%
2012 84% 75% 12%
2013 89% 87% 13%
2014 94% 92% 7%
2015 97% 95% 6%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

53

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Jim Clancy 1991 61 11 Willie Blair 2001 45
2 Eddie Fisher 1972 60 12 Ted Power 1991 42
3 Stan Bahnsen 1980 59 13 Mike Maddux 1997 41
4 Todd Jones 2004 55 14 Ray Scarborough 1953 41
5 Joe Boever 1996 54 15 Dan Osinski 1969 40
6 Rick White 2004 52 16 Mike Garcia 1959 38
7 Pedro Astacio 2005 51 17 Dave Weathers 2005 38
8 Johnny Sain 1953 50 18 Charles Nagy 2003 37
9 Mark Leiter 1999 47 19 Brian Moehler 2008 36
10 Larry Jansen 1956 45 20 Bob Forsch 1986 36

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The Astros took a flier on Chan Ho Park after the Mets released him in June and were rewarded with 18 home runs in 84 innings at Triple-A Round Rock. He's done.

2007

It`s been a strange career already, but, between losing parts of two seasons to a back injury and parts of a third to a hamstring, this year`s life-threatening intestinal problems only made it plain that lightning can strike repeatedly in the same place. Currently a free agent, it`s hard to guess who would want to take a flier on a fifth starter so ill-starred, and his reputation as a headhunter doesn`t help. As recently as five years ago, Park was an unexceptional workhorse starter with extreme fly-ball tendencies who looked like a potential ace to some due to the forgiving nature of Dodger Stadium. When life stripped away that veneer, it did so with a vengeance.

2006

Park`s cratering in Texas--with the health problems, huge contract, and a difficult ballpark,--wasn`t all that surprising. In San Diego, a lot of that pressure should be off, and Park isn`t a bad bet to rebound. He`s still got the back-breaking curve, and he`s pitching in the right park to restore some confidence and resurrect the man he was with the Dodgers.

2005

The real inspiration for the A-Rod trade, Park was once again copious quantities of both awful and absent. Texas has paid him $34 million thus far, and in return received this pitching line:

GGSIPHBBKERA
48482712931362005.91


On the bright side, his control did improve in 2004, and there are only two more years left on his deal, during which the Rangers will pay him $29 million. Deep breaths, Ranger fans. Deep breaths.

2003

Last off-season, we and many others pointed out the obvious danger in the Chan Ho Park signing: that the aptly named Park seemed to be a product of Dodger Stadium, and he wasn’t a good bet to continue his success away from Chavez Ravine. The nightmare Park scenario was even worse: the hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington could act as an anti-Chavez, hurting Park just as much as Dodger Stadium had helped him. Guess what, boys and girls? Nightmares can come true. Park’s road ERA in ’02 was just about the same as it was the three previous years: 4.66 with the Rangers vs. 4.72 with the Dodgers. But his Arlington home ERA of 6.84 was more than double his 3.19 Dodger Stadium ERA. His peripherals and his second half performance show a small silver lining, though. He’ll be better this year. Not $65 million better, but better.

2002

The pitching prize of the free-agent market. There are whispers of Park being "mentally soft" and "not ready to be a "front-of-the-rotation starter." Well, that may or may not be the case, but Park has been a successful pitcher, learned a fair amount of English, and seems to be a solid, confident guy. The real problem is his significant home/road split: since 1997, he's posted a 4.66 ERA away from Chavez Ravine. The Rangers, spending $65 million on Park over the next five years, might be quite disappointed.

2001

Unlike Dreifort, Chan Ho Park has some years in his record that support his reputation. He's a better pitcher when he gets ahead with his fastball and sets up his excellent curveball, which helps him keep the ball in the park. His hit rates have been all over the place; see the Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood comments for more on the significance of this.

Base-stealers are just 39-for-84 against Park since 1996 (courtesy STATS, Inc.), despite his pitching to Todd Hundley and Mike Piazza He allowed just three stolen bases in 2000, which is Terry Mulholland territory.

2000

It’s not every day a pitcher gets the chance to give up 11 runs in an inning. The performance better known as “Fernando Tatis’ two-grand-slam-inning” was more notable, to me, for the fact that Park was still pitching after giving up seven runs and loading the bases. In Davey we...oh, never mind.... Park eventually regained control of his curve and pitched much better in the second half. He should revert to his 1997-98 form in 2000.

1998

Wow. The WFG system likes him. So do I, but probably not that much. Excitable when playing and a lot of fun to watch. His breaking pitch looked a lot sharper to me towards the end of the year. If he can get that working, he’s a Cy Young candidate for the next five years.

1997

Still two years away from finding his control. A patient team will kill guys like this, while the Cubs will simply go down quietly, swinging at pitches near their Adam’s apple.

1996

He's a wild and crazy guy, and a terror for his own catcher. He was handled carefully last season and then turned loose on the Arizona Fall League, where he was dominating and named the #5 prospect. The fast gun had him throwing 99 mph in one game, and his major task was to work on his changeup and tighten his curve, and he's definitely improved. Park has an excellent chance to win the #5 spot in the rotation from Pedro Astacio this spring.


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