<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

Jonathan Papelbon
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 27
6' 4"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Closer Jonathan Papelbon 70 0 2.59 1.07 53 21 6 84 5 4 40 26.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 PME 2A 5 2 0 14 14 87.0 59 23 83 9 45% .234 6 0.94 2.48 4.29 3.99 7.3 3.5 5.5 1.5 14.1 2.5
2005 PAW 3A 1 2 1 7 4 27.7 21 3 27 2 45% .264 18 0.87 2.92 3.28 3.46 7.3 1.4 6.6 0.7 6.2 1.1
2005 BOS MJ 3 1 0 17 3 34.0 33 17 34 4 36% .326 15 1.47 2.65 4.81 2.76 8.5 4.7 9.1 1.1 11.0 1.1 1.6
2006 BOS MJ 4 2 35 59 0 68.3 40 13 75 3 39% .228 28 0.78 0.92 2.03 1.16 4.7 1.6 8.7 0.4 38.6 6.6 7.1
2007 BOS MJ 1 3 37 59 0 58.3 30 15 84 5 29% .216 31 0.77 1.85 2.42 2.02 5.1 2.0 10.1 0.8 27.1 5.1 5.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 1:34 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 5 50 71 0 75.0 51 22 95 6 39% .263 35 0.97 1.88 2.00 1.86 5.7 2.4 10.5 0.7 33.8 5.7 8.7
75o 6 5 47 69 0 73.3 51 22 92 6 38% .267 34 1.00 2.06 2.14 2.03 5.9 2.4 10.3 0.7 31.3 5.2 8.0
60o 6 5 41 64 0 68.7 52 21 84 6 38% .275 30 1.06 2.50 2.48 2.44 6.3 2.5 10.0 0.8 25.9 4.1 6.5
50o 5 5 39 62 0 67.3 52 21 81 6 38% .278 29 1.08 2.64 2.60 2.58 6.5 2.6 10.0 0.8 24.2 3.8 6.0
40o 5 5 38 61 0 66.7 52 21 80 6 37% .280 29 1.09 2.71 2.65 2.64 6.5 2.6 9.9 0.8 23.5 3.7 5.8
25o 5 5 32 56 0 62.0 51 20 72 7 37% .288 25 1.15 3.17 3.01 3.08 7.0 2.7 9.6 0.9 18.5 2.8 4.5
10o 4 4 27 52 0 58.0 51 20 66 7 36% .295 22 1.21 3.58 3.34 3.47 7.4 2.8 9.4 1.0 14.5 2.1 3.6
Weighted Mean 5 5 38 60 0 65.3 50 20 79 6 38% .277 30 1.07 2.59 2.56 2.54 6.4 2.6 10.0 0.8 24.3 3.8 6.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

8%

30%

37%

8%

0.63

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 27) 5 5 38 60 0 65.3 50 20 79 6 38% .277 30 1.07 2.59 2.56 2.54 6.4 2.6 10.0 0.8 24.3 3.8 6.1
2009 (age 28) 5 4 32 54 0 59.7 45 20 66 6 37% .262 23 1.08 2.83 2.61 2.77 6.3 2.7 9.2 0.8 21.1 3.1 5.2
2010 (age 29) 4 4 28 49 0 54.7 44 18 62 6 37% .276 23 1.11 3.03 2.80 2.97 6.7 2.6 9.3 0.9 15.9 2.6 3.9
2011 (age 30) 4 4 27 46 0 51.7 40 17 54 5 38% .261 19 1.09 2.79 2.66 2.74 6.5 2.7 8.7 0.8 15.8 2.7 3.8
2012 (age 31) 4 4 28 49 0 55.0 43 15 57 6 37% .261 19 1.06 2.78 2.60 2.73 6.6 2.3 8.5 1.0 14.4 2.9 3.5
2013 (age 32) 4 4 26 45 0 51.7 43 13 54 6 36% .271 20 1.08 2.85 2.83 2.77 7.0 2.1 8.7 1.0 13.1 2.7 3.2
2014 (age 33) 3 3 19 35 0 40.0 34 11 40 5 36% .274 17 1.12 2.97 2.95 2.88 7.2 2.3 8.3 1.0 9.9 1.9 2.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .190 .282 .326
vs RHB .191 .257 .298
Split -.000 +.025 +.028
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 6.1 $14,000,000 24.3 22.5
2009 5.2 $12,275,000 21.1 18.4
2010 3.9 $9,175,000 15.9 13.6
2011 3.8 $9,625,000 15.8 14.2
2012 3.5 $9,250,000 14.5 12.1
2013 3.2 $8,800,000 13.1 10.8
2014 2.4 $6,575,000 9.9 7.2
Peak 25.8 $51,750,000 91.6 91.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 2.03 2.58 3.08 2.54
2009 2.28 2.81 3.43 2.77
2010 2.34 2.90 3.96 2.97
2011 2.02 2.77 3.72 2.74
2012 1.93 2.55 3.30 2.73
2013 2.20 2.98 4.04 2.77
2014 2.36 3.21 3.67 2.88


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 8%
2009 10% 1% 12%
2010 24% 7% 12%
2011 32% 13% 8%
2012 36% 30% 8%
2013 51% 29% 0%
2014 51% 44% 3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

18

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Dick Radatz 1964 61 11 Steve Bedrosian 1985 30
2 John Wetteland 1994 52 12 Ewell Blackwell 1950 28
3 Troy Percival 1997 49 13 Trevor Hoffman 1995 28
4 Rob Dibble 1991 42 14 Mariano Rivera 1997 28
5 Bill Risley 1995 40 15 Bobby Howry 2001 27
6 Bryan Harvey 1991 39 16 David Riske 2004 25
7 Ugueth Urbina 2001 38 17 Mark Wohlers 1997 24
8 Ricky Bottalico 1997 34 18 Randy Myers 1990 24
9 Jose Valverde 2007 33 19 Don Mossi 1956 24
10 Dan Plesac 1989 32 20 Rich Gossage 1979 24

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Even after the Arroyo trade, a surplus of starters ticketed Papelbon for a setup role, his success out of the bullpen down the 2005 stretch having made such an impression on Terry Francona. When Foulke`s knees prevented the nominal closer from getting enough innings in spring training, Francona called Papelbon`s number, and after 10 saves in 10 April chances, there was no going back. Papelbon didn`t give up his first run until May 3, and by the time he gave up his fourth, he`d racked up 30 saves with the calendar showing August. Fatigue soon compromised his mechanics, and the team shut him down before Labor Day when an MRI showed a `transient subluxation event` (a.k.a. a tired rotator cuff). Amid much debate about his future role, Papelbon expressed a strong desire to return to the rotation in 2007 and the Sox brass concurred. Nothing less than the outcome of the AL East may ride on this decision. If Papelbon was guaranteed to be as dominant as a starter, the move would be a no-brainer, but all signs (including the dual PECOTAs above) suggest he would be greatly diminished by changing roles. Then again, the health of Papelbon`s shoulder may force the Red Sox`s hand.

2005

A dominating reliever at Mississippi State, Papelbon is another of the 2003 draft class doing well for himself in a thin system. His 153 strikeouts in 129.2 innings were impressive, though he was old for A-ball. He's a big boy—6'4", 230—who was getting by with just a deceptive mid-90s fastball before he decided to mix in his new change-up and breaking ball, to great results. He held up well under the starter workload in his first full pro season after being closely watched last year and will start 2005 in the rotation in Double-A.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.