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He's probably very handsome. Hideki Okajima
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 32
6' 1"
194 lbs.
Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Projected Playing Time

 Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Setup Hideki Okajima 60 0 3.68 1.29 57 20 5 54 3 2 5 13.1

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 YOM JP 1 0 0 42 0 53.0 55 19 56 10 .304 -7 1.40 4.75 5.65 5.86 9.2 3.7 7.1 1.8 -1.5 0.4
2006 NIP JP 2 2 4 55 0 54.7 46 14 63 5 .299 9 1.10 2.14 4.83 3.75 9.1 3.2 8.6 1.3 10.3 1.8
2007 BOS MJ 3 2 5 66 0 69.0 50 17 63 6 47% .246 14 0.97 2.22 2.79 2.23 6.6 2.0 7.6 0.8 29.3 4.4 3.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 1:20 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 2 7 57 0 57.3 49 18 53 4 45% .279 14 1.16 2.44 2.82 2.42 7.2 2.6 7.7 0.7 21.9 2.0 3.0
75o 3 2 6 54 0 54.3 49 18 50 5 45% .287 12 1.21 2.93 3.13 2.89 7.6 2.7 7.6 0.8 17.7 1.6 2.4
60o 3 2 5 51 0 51.7 49 17 47 5 45% .295 10 1.27 3.41 3.44 3.36 7.9 2.7 7.5 0.8 13.8 1.2 2.0
50o 3 2 4 50 0 50.7 49 17 46 5 45% .299 9 1.29 3.65 3.59 3.59 8.1 2.7 7.4 0.9 12.0 1.1 1.8
40o 3 2 4 48 0 49.0 48 17 44 5 45% .304 7 1.33 3.95 3.78 3.88 8.3 2.8 7.4 0.9 9.9 0.9 1.5
25o 2 2 3 45 0 45.3 48 16 40 5 45% .315 4 1.40 4.64 4.23 4.55 8.9 2.9 7.2 1.0 5.4 0.5 1.0
10o 2 2 2 41 0 41.7 47 15 36 5 44% .326 1 1.49 5.41 4.73 5.30 9.5 3.0 7.0 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.5
Weighted Mean 3 2 5 52 0 52.0 50 17 47 5 45% .299 9 1.29 3.68 3.60 3.62 8.1 2.8 7.4 0.9 11.4 1.1 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

53%

23%

20%

0.86

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 32) 3 2 5 52 0 52.0 50 17 47 5 45% .299 9 1.29 3.68 3.60 3.62 8.1 2.8 7.4 0.9 11.4 1.1 1.7
2009 (age 33) 3 2 4 46 0 46.3 45 16 41 5 44% .297 6 1.31 3.71 3.62 3.65 8.2 2.9 7.3 0.9 8.5 0.9 1.3
2010 (age 34) 3 2 4 45 0 45.3 43 15 40 4 43% .295 6 1.29 3.61 3.51 3.55 8.1 2.8 7.2 0.8 7.6 1.0 1.1
2011 (age 35) 2 2 3 39 0 40.3 39 14 35 4 45% .297 5 1.32 3.79 3.71 3.73 8.3 2.9 7.2 0.9 5.4 0.8 0.8
2012 (age 36) 2 2 3 39 0 39.7 40 14 34 5 45% .303 3 1.36 3.87 3.99 3.77 8.5 2.9 7.0 1.0 4.1 0.8 0.6
2013 (age 37) 2 2 2 36 0 36.7 41 13 28 4 44% .322 0 1.45 4.16 4.28 4.06 9.3 2.8 6.4 0.8 2.7 0.6 0.4
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .220 .298 .334
vs RHB .237 .313 .386
Split -.018 -.015 -.051
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.7 $3,600,000 11.4 6.9
2009 1.3 $2,825,000 8.6 5.3
2010 1.1 $2,625,000 7.6 4.8
2011 0.8 $2,050,000 5.4 3.4
2012 0.6 $1,650,000 4.1 2.2
2013 0.4 $1,250,000 2.7 0.8
2014 0.2 $775,000 1.2 0.5
Peak 6.1 $10,200,000 37.1 23.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 2.89 3.59 4.55 3.62
2009 2.97 3.68 4.68 3.65
2010 3.05 3.67 4.72 3.55
2011 3.11 3.85 4.91 3.73
2012 3.15 4.31 5.04 3.77
2013 3.66 4.15 4.66 4.06
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 20% 0% 26%
2009 40% 20% 19%
2010 44% 30% 16%
2011 58% 39% 11%
2012 69% 49% 8%
2013 75% 65% 4%
2014 88% 76% 4%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

54

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Mike Stanton 1999 55 11 Aaron Fultz 2006 39
2 Paul Assenmacher 1993 53 12 Dan Schatzeder 1987 39
3 Tug McGraw 1977 49 13 Alan Embree 2002 39
4 Jamie Walker 2004 47 14 Dave Veres 1999 38
5 Bob Patterson 1991 44 15 Arnold Earley 1965 38
6 Randy Myers 1995 43 16 Joe Borowski 2003 38
7 Jim Brewer 1970 43 17 Rob Murphy 1992 38
8 Dave Tobik 1985 41 18 Craig Lefferts 1990 38
9 Frank DiPino 1989 41 19 Dave LaRoche 1980 37
10 Bill Henry 1960 39 20 Steve Farr 1989 37

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