Wil Nieves

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:41 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	226	28	10	1	3	22	14	26	3	1	-0.3	.287	.334	.384	-.050	.287	.338	.401	.263	7.0	56-C -2	1.7
75^o	207	20	8	1	2	20	11	24	2	1	-0.2	.258	.300	.339	-.189	.258	.303	.354	.235	-0.6	52-C -2	1.1
60^o	192	15	6	1	2	18	9	23	2	1	-0.2	.236	.274	.305	-.293	.236	.277	.319	.211	-5.5	49-C -1	0.6
50^o	186	13	6	1	1	17	8	22	2	1	-0.2	.227	.263	.291	-.335	.228	.266	.304	.200	-7.2	47-C -1	0.4
40^o	179	12	5	1	1	16	7	22	2	1	-0.2	.219	.254	.280	-.372	.220	.257	.292	.190	-8.6	46-C -1	0.3
25^o	171	10	5	1	1	15	6	21	1	0	-0.1	.210	.242	.265	-.417	.211	.245	.277	.177	-10.1	44-C -1	0.1
10^o	76	2	1	0	0	5	2	11	0	0	0.0	.157	.175	.184	-.671	.158	.177	.192	.027	-9.2	23-C 0	-0.2
Weighted Mean	177	13	6	1	1	16	8	21	2	1	-0.2	.233	.270	.301	-.307	.233	.273	.314	.207	-5.3	45-C -1	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	45%	40%	38%	0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 30)	177	13	6	1	1	16	8	21	2	1	-0.2	.233	.270	.301	-.307	.233	.273	.314	.207	-5.3	45-C -1	1.0
2009 (age 31)	157	11	5	1	1	14	8	19	1	0	-0.1	.232	.274	.299	-.303	.236	.282	.318	.209	-4.3	41-C -1	0.5
2010 (age 32)	168	12	5	0	1	16	9	21	1	1	-0.1	.229	.272	.292	-.317	.234	.280	.310	.205	-4.5	43-C -2	0.5
2011 (age 33)	129	8	5	0	1	11	6	16	1	0	-0.1	.228	.265	.298	-.322	.232	.272	.318	.204	-3.0	35-C -1	0.3
2012 (age 34)	137	9	5	0	2	14	7	18	1	1	-0.1	.239	.280	.320	-.261	.243	.288	.340	.219	-1.2	37-C -1	0.3
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.249	.290	.333
vs RHP	.228	.263	.288
Split	+.020	+.026	+.045
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.3	1.2	1.0	$1,025,000	-5.5	1.0
2009	-0.2	0.7	0.5	$675,000	-5.1	0.8
2010	-0.2	0.7	0.5	$650,000	-4.8	0.2
2011	-0.2	0.5	0.3	$575,000	-3.1	0.1
2012	0.0	0.3	0.3	$550,000	-1.3	0.6
2013	0.0	0.2	0.1	$475,000	-1.2	0.2
2014	0.0	0.1	0.2	$525,000	0.0	0.3
Peak			2.7	$1,350,000	0.0	3.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.235	.200	.177	.207
2009	.242	.206	.181	.209
2010	.226	.198	.163	.205
2011	.233	.201	.171	.204
2012	.244	.208	.174	.219
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	38%	0%	32%
2009	53%	16%	33%
2010	56%	27%	25%
2011	77%	45%	28%
2012	84%	61%	29%
2013	92%	74%	23%
2014	94%	88%	18%

55

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong! Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Russ Gibson	1992	40		11	Rick Cerone	2003	33
2	Gary Bennett	1979	36		12	Johnny Oates	1971	33
3	Fred Kendall	1981	36		13	Ken Rudolph	1982	33
4	Jerry Zimmerman	1970	36		14	Alberto Castillo	1960	33
5	Joe Astroth	1973	35		15	Barry Lyons	2007	32
6	Junior Ortiz	1992	35		16	Bob Melvin	1975	32
7	Joe Girardi	1975	34		17	Keith Osik	1969	32
8	Jeff Torborg	1975	34		18	Bob Kearney	2000	31
9	Einar Diaz	1957	34		19	Kirt Manwaring	1979	30
10	Sammy White	1998	33		20	Dick Brown	2005	30

Player Comments

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2007

Wil Nieves made the Opening Day roster because the Yankees were worried about losing him on waivers if they sent him down; replacement-level catchers turned out to be in greater supply than they thought. Compare Nieves`s .244/.271/.308 PECOTA to the line in the Fasano comment above, then consider that the man he`ll be battling for the backup catcher spot this spring is his top PECOTA comp, Raul Chavez. It doesn`t matter who wins, nothing ever changes.

2000

Keep an eye on this guy. Nieves put up All-Star numbers at Rancho Cucamonga in 1999, and he�s turned himself into a legitimate prospect. He made the jump from Clinton without a hitch and will be tried at Las Vegas next season. If he�s for real, the Padres might want to think about trading Davis; Nieves was that good in 1999. Pitchers like working with him.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	COH	3A	404	45	22	3	4	37	13	38	1	1	0.7	.289	.313	.395	-.045	.260	.286	.354	.222	-6.1	86-C -1	1.7
2005	NYA	MJ	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.296	.000	.000	.000	.000	-1.0		0.0
2006	COH	3A	348	29	13	0	5	34	18	29	2	1	0.1	.259	.298	.346	-.083	.254	.296	.347	.224	-5.0	79-C -7	1.1
2006	NYA	MJ	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.394	.000	.000	.000	.000	-1.7		0.0
2007	SWB	3A	98	5	1	2	1	8	6	10	1	0	-0.6	.256	.306	.344	-.102	.242	.293	.330	.222	-2.4	26-C 2	0.5
2007	NYA	MJ	66	6	4	0	0	8	2	9	0	0	-0.1	.164	.190	.230	-.605	.164	.190	.230	.127	-6.4	19-C -3	-0.2

Historical Stats