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Wil Nieves
New York Yankees [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 30
5' 11"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 COH 3A 404 45 22 3 4 37 13 38 1 1 0.7 .289 .313 .395 -.045 .260 .286 .354 .222 -6.1 86-C -1 1.7
2005 NYA MJ 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 .000 .000 .000 -1.296 .000 .000 .000 .000 -1.0 0.0
2006 COH 3A 348 29 13 0 5 34 18 29 2 1 0.1 .259 .298 .346 -.083 .254 .296 .347 .224 -5.0 79-C -7 1.1
2006 NYA MJ 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 .000 .000 .000 -1.394 .000 .000 .000 .000 -1.7 0.0
2007 SWB 3A 98 5 1 2 1 8 6 10 1 0 -0.6 .256 .306 .344 -.102 .242 .293 .330 .222 -2.4 26-C 2 0.5
2007 NYA MJ 66 6 4 0 0 8 2 9 0 0 -0.1 .164 .190 .230 -.605 .164 .190 .230 .127 -6.4 19-C -3 -0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:41 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 226 28 10 1 3 22 14 26 3 1 -0.3 .287 .334 .384 -.050 .287 .338 .401 .263 7.0 56-C -2 1.7
75o 207 20 8 1 2 20 11 24 2 1 -0.2 .258 .300 .339 -.189 .258 .303 .354 .235 -0.6 52-C -2 1.1
60o 192 15 6 1 2 18 9 23 2 1 -0.2 .236 .274 .305 -.293 .236 .277 .319 .211 -5.5 49-C -1 0.6
50o 186 13 6 1 1 17 8 22 2 1 -0.2 .227 .263 .291 -.335 .228 .266 .304 .200 -7.2 47-C -1 0.4
40o 179 12 5 1 1 16 7 22 2 1 -0.2 .219 .254 .280 -.372 .220 .257 .292 .190 -8.6 46-C -1 0.3
25o 171 10 5 1 1 15 6 21 1 0 -0.1 .210 .242 .265 -.417 .211 .245 .277 .177 -10.1 44-C -1 0.1
10o 76 2 1 0 0 5 2 11 0 0 0.0 .157 .175 .184 -.671 .158 .177 .192 .027 -9.2 23-C 0 -0.2
Weighted Mean 177 13 6 1 1 16 8 21 2 1 -0.2 .233 .270 .301 -.307 .233 .273 .314 .207 -5.3 45-C -1 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

32%

45%

40%

38%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 30) 177 13 6 1 1 16 8 21 2 1 -0.2 .233 .270 .301 -.307 .233 .273 .314 .207 -5.3 45-C -1 1.0
2009 (age 31) 157 11 5 1 1 14 8 19 1 0 -0.1 .232 .274 .299 -.303 .236 .282 .318 .209 -4.3 41-C -1 0.5
2010 (age 32) 168 12 5 0 1 16 9 21 1 1 -0.1 .229 .272 .292 -.317 .234 .280 .310 .205 -4.5 43-C -2 0.5
2011 (age 33) 129 8 5 0 1 11 6 16 1 0 -0.1 .228 .265 .298 -.322 .232 .272 .318 .204 -3.0 35-C -1 0.3
2012 (age 34) 137 9 5 0 2 14 7 18 1 1 -0.1 .239 .280 .320 -.261 .243 .288 .340 .219 -1.2 37-C -1 0.3
2013 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .249 .290 .333
vs RHP .228 .263 .288
Split +.020 +.026 +.045
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.3 1.2 1.0 $1,025,000 -5.5 1.0
2009 -0.2 0.7 0.5 $675,000 -5.1 0.8
2010 -0.2 0.7 0.5 $650,000 -4.8 0.2
2011 -0.2 0.5 0.3 $575,000 -3.1 0.1
2012 0.0 0.3 0.3 $550,000 -1.3 0.6
2013 0.0 0.2 0.1 $475,000 -1.2 0.2
2014 0.0 0.1 0.2 $525,000 0.0 0.3
Peak 2.7 $1,350,000 0.0 3.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .235 .200 .177 .207
2009 .242 .206 .181 .209
2010 .226 .198 .163 .205
2011 .233 .201 .171 .204
2012 .244 .208 .174 .219
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 38% 0% 32%
2009 53% 16% 33%
2010 56% 27% 25%
2011 77% 45% 28%
2012 84% 61% 29%
2013 92% 74% 23%
2014 94% 88% 18%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

55

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Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Russ Gibson 1992 40 11 Rick Cerone 2003 33
2 Gary Bennett 1979 36 12 Johnny Oates 1971 33
3 Fred Kendall 1981 36 13 Ken Rudolph 1982 33
4 Jerry Zimmerman 1970 36 14 Alberto Castillo 1960 33
5 Joe Astroth 1973 35 15 Barry Lyons 2007 32
6 Junior Ortiz 1992 35 16 Bob Melvin 1975 32
7 Joe Girardi 1975 34 17 Keith Osik 1969 32
8 Jeff Torborg 1975 34 18 Bob Kearney 2000 31
9 Einar Diaz 1957 34 19 Kirt Manwaring 1979 30
10 Sammy White 1998 33 20 Dick Brown 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

Wil Nieves made the Opening Day roster because the Yankees were worried about losing him on waivers if they sent him down; replacement-level catchers turned out to be in greater supply than they thought. Compare Nieves`s .244/.271/.308 PECOTA to the line in the Fasano comment above, then consider that the man he`ll be battling for the backup catcher spot this spring is his top PECOTA comp, Raul Chavez. It doesn`t matter who wins, nothing ever changes.

2000

Keep an eye on this guy. Nieves put up All-Star numbers at Rancho Cucamonga in 1999, and he’s turned himself into a legitimate prospect. He made the jump from Clinton without a hitch and will be tried at Las Vegas next season. If he’s for real, the Padres might want to think about trading Davis; Nieves was that good in 1999. Pitchers like working with him.


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